Morgan has published results of a large-sample phone poll of 1670 respondents, “including 1,025 electors in 22 key L-NP marginal seats”. This has focused on seven such seats in New South Wales, pointing to a swing of 7.7 per cent, four in Victoria for 4.8 per cent, four in Queensland for 13.9 per cent, three in South Australia for 6.6 per cent, two in Tasmania for 9.9 per cent, and two in Western Australia for a swing of 3.1 per cent away from Labor. I am unsure on what basis Morgan has arrived at the conclusion that “the ALP looks set to win between 14 and 24 seats”. We are told without explanation that the swing in NSW is “not uniform” and that “the L-NP could still hold Bennelong, Dobell and Wentworth”, without any corresponding allowance for Labor gaining seats outside the range. Despite the swing in South Australia, it is apparently the case that Labor might not win Wakefield, which I find extremely difficult to believe. The overall result of the poll is a 46.5 per cent primary vote for Labor and 40 per cent for the Coalition, for a two-party preferred result of 56-44. It would require tremendous creativity to build a scenario from these figures that would only deliver Labor 14 seats.
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Morgan phone poll: 56-44
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678 Comments
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Triffid 107 , Howard’s ‘tactics’ – vicious flailing. Rudd’s – calm, nothing much.
re Morgan, its Gary not Roy. I suspect this is a classic case of the idiot son inheriting from the intelligent father. Gary Morgan’s analysis of his poll results, and his weird ‘right direction’ question are both bizarre. Take no notice of them whatsoever. The poll sample sizes for individual electorates make the task of balancing for demographic differences within them simply impossible. There is nowhere near enough data available about what the demographics are, and where they are, to allow sensible sampling design. As I have commented earlier wrt Bennelong, that seat is so diverse in every way, kidding yourself that you have ‘captured’ it with a sample of 200, 400, 800, whatever is a pure wank. The fact that four polls, over a period of six months, have ended up with an almost unvarying 52:48 to Maxine, is a cause for wonderment. The total of all four still has a MOE at 95% of around 2%.
All of the polls still show a national result of at least 54:46. It is so close to an impossibility that the coalition can win from here, with numbers like that, that I hereby promise to reveal my identity to EStJ if Howard wins.
My company builds big forecasting models for many Government departments and agencies, and companies from tiny to huge. We have done so for over 25 years, and before that I did it for the biggest consulting firm in the world. We use every technique known, and we have invented a few of our own.
In my opinion, as I have stated on this blog and its predecessor since January, Howard is stuffed, and my personal forecast is for Labor 94, Independents 2, or just maybe, 3.
Gary Morgan should stick to reporting primary votes, nationally for a single poll., and state by state, for a four poll aggregation. Possum, Bryan and others can then interpret his results for him. He is plainly incompetent when it comes to doing it himself.
cheers,
Alan H
nothing humourous – nice one Kev
Oh Dear, The Doctor’s Union don’t like El Rodente’s Drug Crackdown.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22778985-948,00.html
This is such a good ad for the younger folk
http://alp.org.au/labortv/roSSlPHs5h
Embrace the nerd Kev!
But I have to laugh at the prominence given to the “Exit Strategy” for Iraq.
I agree with it 110%, but I still think it is ironic to make it promise. The old word for “Exit Strategy” used to be “Retreat” or “Surrender”
the ‘gerd’
Kevin is doing a great job – he’s funny and relaxed. GREAT line about there being a real problem if he couldn’t take Howard in a bar fight.
Rudd was remarkably humorous on Rove, I think he’ll have sealed a few votes there.
Could somebody who is tipping Labor for 94 seats please tell me which seats are going to fall? Okay, let’s say Labor runs the table on the marginals on everything down to Paterson, including Wentworth and Bennelong. That still leaves 10 seats to be won… okay, add Bowman, McEwen, Sturt, Flynn, Leichhardt, Robertson… Ryan maybe…
Okay, i’m up to 91 and struggling. Petrie maybe? Hinkler? Hughes? Fisher? Fairfax? Dickson or Longman? Don’t tell me you think we’re going to win Wide Bay? I’m from the Sunshine Coast originally, I just can’t see it. I lived in Bundaberg too for a year and my sources there (sub editor at the local paper) tell me that Parr has shot himself in the foot with his comments during the campaign. A lot of these seats will be marginal and ripe for a takeover after a good Rudd first term, but I just can’t see it yet.
Even with 56%, which we surely can’t get more than about 94 can we? That would leave us with around a 9% swing and maybe, just maybe 94 seats. If the swing is that big though, surely a lot of it is going to be wasted in the 20%+ safe lib seats. Unless of course, that puts seats like North Sydney in play. I still think it’s hard to believe that we win with more than about 53.5% even if everything goes right.
I’ll stick with predicting 79, and hoping that i’m wrong and we can get the swings in the right places with 53-54% to get a comfortable 82-85 seats. Maybe by election day i’ll bump up my prediction to 81-82.
Rudd kicked a fair few goals on Rove. (though probalby most were already onside)
BBD do you actually get a wage as an honorary secretary?
awww.. wimped out!
Huh? I dunno. I’m a bit busy for this kind of thing at the moment.
At least he had some nice material written for that last question – but, really, he dodged the answer…
Rudd would turn gay for his wife?
Can you imagine JWH answering any of those questions?
Well we already know his answer about inviting Cossie to dinner…
Rudd was surprisingly humourous on Rove – the only thing I could fault him for was that he had a bit of a tendency to interrupt Rove during the interview. Still – that’s a minor fault compared to the calmness of his performance…
My impression of Rudd’s Rove performance:
He really kept a lid on anything resembling exuberance or over-confidence but still managed to come across as real, amusing, engaging.
A difficult balance to strike but I reckon he did it. If John Howard was watching, he would honestly have to acknowledge that the man has something he does not, at that basic level of connecting in a modern way.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22780224-12377,00.html
82 Diogenes:
You would run rings around me any time in a philosophy tute which is where you seem to be stuck.
I am not William. I’m just a bloke who would prefer to save time not having to read all this troll crap on PB, not meaning you, but the Isabellas and Tabithas and ESJ and most manifestations of Glen etc. I also happen to have had a learning exerience that I expect is beyond your ken, of having grown up as a privileged white in 1960s South Africa and having seen politicians like Verwoerd and Vorster and then watching aghast 40 years later as Howard and Ruddock and Andrews disinterred these corpse politicians and revived their values. There’s not a Mandela in sight but then I suspect Diogenes that you are a Mandela cynic.
What Rudd did – amazingly – was to present himself simply. The party line (in bullet points) came up a bit, but really it was all about, “I’m the man, here’s the plan, if you like it, you’ll vote Labor.”
Which is about as soft-sell as anything we’ve seen so far in this election.
And for Glen:
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22780224-5005361,00.html
Has anyone seen the Greens Ad with bob Brown talking to Bob Brown on how to get double value for you Sentae vote – or as he says getting your two bob’ worth”.
Was on during the cricket here in canberra. A nice light touch – Greens are lightening up.
also a rather random add of a green dinosaur coming out of an egg. It was highly obscure and left me confused as to what the point was.
Elect Vessel, since we were never in the front, or even the fifth line, how can anything we do be characterised as being other than a token lump of bullshit. Typical Howard, all show, no substance. Australians being used for political posturing. Licking GB’s fundamental orifice, at great cost to our country, in terms our collective self respect, and our reputation in the world and your and my money. Not to mention putting my children in increased danger from terrorist attack.
Thank dog, the little turd is about to get his comeuppance. Oh tra lee, tra lay, the joy.
cheers,
Alan H
Just to try and build some tipping credentials
My tip for the gay question was:
“No one – my wife wouldn’t let me”
Rudd actual reply: “There’s only one person for me, that’s my wife Therese.”
162 Edward St John
You don’t get a wage as an honorary Secretary.
You may get an Honorarium, which is a token amount to cover expenses, no one would do the job for an honorarium alone, it is not even the same value as unemployment benefit on most cases.
Rudd presented himself as a human being tonight, with a sense of humour.
He was willing to poke fun at himself, and he was quite funny in places.
And he even got some laughs out of the “who will you turn gay for” question.
I now know why JWH doesn’t go on that show. He never would have been able to do what Kevin did.
When was the last time that JWH cracked a joke at his own expense?
William,
Have you got Poll Bludger road tested to the point where you can trust it on Saturday night?
………. We are likely to set some tally records on this site I suspect 
To change tack for a second. Was last week’s Newspoll released on Sunday night for Monday or Monday for Tuesday?
If the former, might there be a heads up on Sky at 930?
180 Julie
Good point Julie, I suggest we all chip in a few $ using the pay pal link on this site so William can get extra bandwidth. He actually pays to keep this site going for us.
I see no-one is arguing against the analysis of Victorian Seats.
TO marko, Flash and Swing Lowe,
No way did we just see the same interview
Rudd was about as entertaining as a cup of cold sick
It was wooden, reserved, and completely uninspirig.
The answer to the question “who would you turn gay for?”, sums it all up, he couldn’t field the question without referring to notes (no doubt supplied by his media consultants), and giving Therese totally missed the fun of the question.
The issue here is that he wouldn’t go on Insiders because he is scared of real scrutiny. He gave priority to appearing on Rove!!!!! and turned up with as much personality as a wet sponge
Alan H – 151
Thanks for an interesting post. Does the same go for Galaxy’s recent marginal polling and David Brooks?
Yeah William, what are the plans for Saturday? Anything special for PollBludger?
I’ve having a party, and I want to show people this site. The thing that has maintained my sanity for the past 6 months.
I’ll probably be up all night anyway LOL…..
re post 160
94 or better are a guess assuming there are approx 40 seats able to change hands
assuming 55/45 as per the polls
also assuming sa/qld are the better states it is quite possible
to nominate the seats which will fall is difficult… but some greater than 10% seats can swing
to Labor. esp where inflated margins exist (about 8 seats)
Don’t like to gloat (well, a bit.. ) but I suspected this would be the Rudd reply:
Flash Says:
November 18th, 2007 at 11:55 am
Re the Rove gay question: I think Rudd has no choice but to play it safe. His minders will come up with an answer that is: A: funny but B: decidely heterosexual and untroubling to the more conservative elements of middle Australia.
My wife Therese, safe, moderate, if in doubt go boring. But no headlines there, I wonder if the libs are learning anything. Imagine losing this election because you got totally suckrd in by .001% of the population who happened to be CEO’s of the major institutions, shame on you John Howard.
Mick, we’ve got no reason to believe Qld and SA are the ‘better states’. All individual seat polling is showing the swings to be quite modest in SA and Qld. 3 gains in SA and 2 in Qld.
Elect Vessel, maybe you could read Hugh White’s assesment of that other “coalition”, it’s not a very happy one:
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/18/2094012.htm?section=world
…but JWH signed up to it, and it’s one more albatross he’ll drag to this election.
re 180 maybe william will need more funds?
go hughesie!
Ok, can somebody explain me this?
I understand the comments about Morgans marginal poll on a seat by seat. Small sample size in the individual seats means that the MOW is humungous. So the only significant figures are the national 55.5/44.5 and the overall marginal of 54/46.
So, why are the Newspoll quarterly surveys any better?
Is it because they draw conclusions about classes of seats (marginal, govt safe, opposition safe) rather than individual seats?? What is their MOE for the classes of seats??
Paul – youre spot on about Howard and his vile racist opportunism – the quality that sets him apart from every other postwar Australian Prime Minister and will haunt him long after the 24th.
Luke – I have heard otherwise on Corangamite. However, I agree with you regarding Deakin, it might be a sticky one. La Trobe will go.
Heads up for Agenda at 9-30 people….
Newspoll?
Maybe not because of the marginal they put out…
179 [When was the last time that JWH cracked a joke at his own expense?]
Don’t you remember him trying to play cricket in Afghanistan?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGqTayhu5QM
what channel is agenda?
Agenda – Spears guest a rep. from the CCC and he led with the tape of Rudd from Rove with the answer to THE question ……
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