Morgan has published results of a large-sample phone poll of 1670 respondents, “including 1,025 electors in 22 key L-NP marginal seats”. This has focused on seven such seats in New South Wales, pointing to a swing of 7.7 per cent, four in Victoria for 4.8 per cent, four in Queensland for 13.9 per cent, three in South Australia for 6.6 per cent, two in Tasmania for 9.9 per cent, and two in Western Australia for a swing of 3.1 per cent away from Labor. I am unsure on what basis Morgan has arrived at the conclusion that “the ALP looks set to win between 14 and 24 seats”. We are told without explanation that the swing in NSW is “not uniform” and that “the L-NP could still hold Bennelong, Dobell and Wentworth”, without any corresponding allowance for Labor gaining seats outside the range. Despite the swing in South Australia, it is apparently the case that Labor might not win Wakefield, which I find extremely difficult to believe. The overall result of the poll is a 46.5 per cent primary vote for Labor and 40 per cent for the Coalition, for a two-party preferred result of 56-44. It would require tremendous creativity to build a scenario from these figures that would only deliver Labor 14 seats.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Morgan phone poll: 56-44
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Received a phone call from my union (ASU) this afternoon; wondering if I had any questions about workchoices. Unlike the Liberal TV advertisements depicting the unionists as pot belly thugs; the advocate on the other end of the phone sounded very female, young, and quite spunky. I really wanted to spend the rest of the afternoon chatting her up, but I let her go as she clearly had more phone calls to make for the cause. (Actually, thinking about it more, I really should have played out the line of a Liberalist struggling with a change of mind. She really sounded cute. Sigh.)
Do you think the Libs are trying to tell us something about interest rates?
“we’re sorry” ?
I wonder if it has the same importance as what they told us about interest rates in 2004?
Thought it might.
RGee, what have you heard about Corangamite? What is the issue(s) down there? and has O’Connor got any chance in Corio?
189- Follow the preferences;
How’s this for a headline:
RUDD: I’D GO GAY FOR MY WIFE
Misleading and draws you in- classic mass market material.
For next Saturday could we have just the one thread or a thread per state otherwise.
Nice performance from Rudd on Rove, I saw the ALP ad which went ‘DING’ I quite liked it and the bloke taking about Workchoices is better than the women one but compared to the flash back to what happened if Whitlam or Hawke is old hat.
I don’t see American President candidates going on about Reagan or Carter.
I take it Morgan wasn’t doing the polling for any particular newspaper? They’re a bit like a mangey dog skulking around begging for scraps aren’t they?
ps. I hereby give my permission for Morgan to reproduce this comment at the end of each of his polls
Rudd played it very clever on Rove by not going into full elctioneering mode. It was very much “everyone makes up there minds – that’s democracy”.
Poss said it all: “Beware of the commentary about individual seats, the marginal seat polling has an MoE of between 5.5 and 10% per State, and about 15% per seat. The only useful things here are the overall national result of 55.5/44.5 with a minimum MoE of 2.5% and the overall marginal result of 54/46 with a minimum 3% MoE .
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/
So stop committing mass suicide and relax
RUDD: I’D GO GAY FOR MY WIFE
and Rove says so your wife is a man!
Oliver @ 160. There is no point in trying to pick which seats will fall. Most of the low hanging fruit will fall, of course, but after that, its all down to individual demographic differences, particular candidate strengths and weaknesses, individual campaigning and how well it picked up on the overall campaign messages, and a completely indefinable maelstrom of influences from local and national advertising, media presentations, with perceived or actual bias, and so on and on and on. In the end, the overall TPP vote will express itself in seats won or lost. Just like a balloon, if you squeeze it in at one point, it will bulge out at another. The reason I pick 94 seats is that what Antony Green’s beautiful calculator:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/
says will happen when I feed in my personal take on the polling results, after my own ‘corrections’.
Try it yourself.
cheers,
Alan H
Well that’s all well and good Finnigan, but if the swing isn’t uniform just looking at the headline figure is useless.
Luke I wouldn’t take as gospel the mutterings of those whose candidate lost pre selection for Corangamite. We got the right demographic – a young bloke vs an ancient fossil.
But still its going to be very, very hard.
Yeah it was good he didn’t go into message mode.
I don’t understand why Howard didn’t go on the show, it was all pretty harmless stuff really.
Rudd on Rove was entertaining – it was good to see him relaxed, smiling and laughing. The answer ro the questions was boring but could only ever be what he answered.
Any news on Newspoll on Sky – I don’t get it. They did announce it at this time last week.
This may have been noted, but neither Centrebet nor Sportingbet lists odds for Wentworth – is this because of the question mark over Newhouse’s eligibility? Or just to hard to make a sensible judgment about a volatile electorate?
Imacca at 194 – the newspoll quarterlies have a much bigger sample, and an MoE on the marginal/safe government/safe alp seat breakdown of a tad over 3% per category.
The State breakdowns have an MoE of around 4% per state, the age breakdowns around 3%, the capital city vs non-capital city about 2.7%.
Bob Brown on Rove…
Bob Brown on Rove!!
Luke – I heard about 6 weeks ago that it was going to go from a couple confident staffers.
I have been told Gavan doesn’t have much chance at all.
Rudd’s gone the final week wedge.
He’s getting the hang of this now. How?
The Age – Rudd pledge on emissions
KATHARINE MURPHY 3:08pm | Kevin Rudd promises to set a 2020 target to cut greenhouse gas emissions within six months of forming government.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federalelection2007economy/rudd-pledge-on-emissions/2007/11/18/1195321594035.html
Now how do you think Howard will respond?
Exactly.
Your consistent, but it doesn’t matter. The open question now is not will labor win the election, the question is, will the Liberal party be consigned to history. Anything over 100 seats and I think the answer will be yes, they will not recover.
Staffers wouldn’t know any more than the rest of us. Unless they’re Rudd’s staff.
I was pretty sure newpoll is anounced on MOnday for publishing Tuesday?
Bob Brown also made Rove – is the legal requirement true??
He looked delighted to get a few minutes in the limelight….
My 17-year-old daughter just said to me that Kevin Rudd was really funny on Rove, cracked jokes and seemed like a great bloke. She has no interest in politics, and only recently learned (from me) that Rudd was Labor and Howard was Liberal. She said it was the first time she’d ever seen a politician being entertaining on the television, cos they’re usually so boring.
I wish I’d watched it. I could do with a laugh from this campaign (haven’t had one since the Family First candidate got caught watching porno). Rudd actually does have a sense of humour and can crack a joke. We’ve forgotten that some politicians can actually do this. Gillard can do it too.
I reckon Rudd is going to sweep the 18-24s, and those that don’t vote for him will vote Green and give him their preferences. And I reckon Howard is really stupid not to go on Rove and FM radio stations. I suspect it’s because he has not idea of how to relate to their audiences, and is scared he might be asked a question that’s off the planet (like “What’s a search engine?” or “What’s your favourite Britney Spears song?”).
Off Topic, but found this video on News according to Ch 7 Perth.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aB45iw3FoqE&feature=related
For those of you who turned off Rove, Bob Brown made an appearance. The big question was who would you turn straight for? Missy Higgins.
197,
I don’t think Sky will do any polling tonight of any sort (release of info I mean). I think that he was settling into the interview with the Climate Change Coalition candidate and so I turned it off.
He did interview Kieran Gilbert though on the show before they started the CCC interview. Gilbert is their reporter in the Rudd media flock and you could tell from the questions he (Spears) was asking “Is there a danger that Rudd could appear to be a candidate with too much fluff (or words to that effect) by appearing on a show like this?” {dig obviously inserted at behest of Insiders I think}. Gilbert was very appreciative and had good words to say about Rudd’s preformance on Rove and after several attempts to get around the same question, asked in different ways, just cut Gilbert off, politely though, to which Gilbert took it like a trooper. Spears really doesn’t like it when the reports he has to do and can not walk away from are going to be positive for the ALP
Rud was clever while he didn’t appear in full campaign mode he repeated his priority twice, and targeted Roves audition nicely, I can’t find anyone under 35 apart from young Libs willing to vote for Howard, remembering the damage the first time voters did to Keating in 1996
Lose the election – Like you Id prefer it to be cut and dried but unfortunately there are no absolute garauntees in life. My consoling thought is that Labor isnt in the same poll position as the coalition a week out from the big decision.
229: I applaud his taste, but it wouldn’t do him any good…. sadly, thanks to recent news regarding Missy
Anyway … bit late on the discussion … but I’m happy with a headline of 56/44/
I did enjoy the commentary that notes the swings varied quite alot. A 15.6% MOE on a seat by seat basis will do that
Overall the three marginal polls indicate no great change in the vote and a 2pp high enough to overcome any marginal firewall, maginot line, whatever strategy Lib central is banking on.
Mind you I could do with a nice 55+ newspoll just to settle then nerves
It does seem that Vic might not come to the party big time and only deliver 1 to 2 seats on the night.
My post on Simon Jackman:
It’s interesting that the event most talked about in the dailies is the application of a national 2PP swing applied uniformly across Australia. In my 50 years following Australian elections it has never occurred. State variations are explainable by factors such as state based newspapers, state news on TV and radio, different demographic and economic changes occurring in different states, individual popularity of state governments, regional issues (such as Ringwood/Frankston toll freeway in Melbourne’s east) etc. State variations are what can deliver a narrow win or a much larger win given the same national 2PP swing. In this election we have more state based info than ever before. If properly applied (given the margin of error) it allows psephologists to more closely predict the result (but things can change even in the last week – highly unlikely now).
On all figures published in the last three months (and especially the last 3 weeks)there is clear evidence that on election night we should get close to the following suggested 2PP numbers:
NSW: 54.8 vs 48.1 in 2004, a 6.7 percentage point swing; 8 seats.
Vic: 55.0 vs 49.0 in 2004, a 6.0 percentage point swing; 4 seats.
Qld: 51.3 vs 42.9 in 2004, a 8.4 percentage point swing; 8 seats.
SA: 52.6 vs 45.6 in 2004, a 7.0 percentage point swing, 5 seats.
WA: 47.6 vs 44.6 in 2004, a 3.0 percentage point swing, 2 seats.
Tas: 59.0 vs 54.2 in 2004, a 4.8 percentage point swing, 2 seats.
NT: 55.1 vs 52.1 in 2004, a 3.0 percentage point swing, 1 seats.
ACT: 66.6 vs 61.5 in 2004, a 4.9 percentage point swing, 0 seats.
AUS: 53.7 vs 47.3 in 2004, a 6.4 percentage point swing, 30 seats.
Even within each state some seats below the figure won’t fall and some above will fall but it is on a state basis that the compensation between above and below balances out. The state variances account for why the national 2PP required changes from one election to the next.
234- Albert
A 54-46 Newspoll would be just fine
Sky Agenda marketing commentator made an interesting observation about Labor’s non-verbal “Beep, berrrr” TV ad. He said a lot of people now fast-forward through ads – so these people would get the message anyway.
223 – Charles
Take any prediction of the extinction of a party with about a kilo of salt.
224 – LTEP
If you want an objective opinion dont ask a staffer they know nothing. Its like asking Igor whether Master is going to suck the blood out of 3 or 4 virgins tonight.
Generally
The Rudd was so witty and clever comments just sound like so much peanut gallery stuff.
Basically if Rudd loses given the year Howard has had it means one thing – the smell of Labor’s previous failures havent worn off and Labor cant win without fundamental internal reform. End of story.
We’ll see. Still think Rudd will get a small margin and a conditional mandate, ie screw up and well throw you out.
If Victoria swings by 4.8% then that will be massive remembering Kennett suffered only a 3% swing in 1999, I think we need to ignore the pendulem but again at this stage its all nazal gazing.
@235
Davo Harvey Bay
That was EXACTLY my prediction a coupla days ago 53.7 to 46.3!
Albert if newspoll comes out on Tuesday with a 55+ it’ll be goodnight nurse – the media reactionwill cause a meltdown.
I think the Libs would need it to be >54, otheriwse it’ll mostly be reported as same ole same ole.
53 will be reported as the election is still alive
52 would be “come-back!!!”
I’m not saying that any of these results would actually mean there is a real comeback, narrowing or even no change, but the media reportage is vital if the Libs are to have any traction this week.
My information is more recent (as in phone call today). The Labor candidate is unknown, and apparently, doesn’t live in the seat. Did anyone see the 7.30 report on this seat? I didn’t, but apparently it did not show the Labor guy in a good light. My souce lives at the tail end of Geelong, and says the Libs are all over the ground down there with stuff, and as is the Work Rights campaign, but they haven’t seen Labor, apart from some letters. The margin seems too high considering…
The “beep/burr” ad also goes down well at pubs where the cricket is on but the sound is off….
All this hype about Rudd on Rove, you know what gang i missed it, so will millions of others voters who had better things to do on a Sunday night than watch TV. Sure many rusted ons will have watched it just to see Kevin but i doubt he’ll get any electoral benefit for going on Rove to prove he’s ‘cool’. We don’t need a ‘cool’ PM, we need the right PM and Howard is the right leader IMHO.
Rudd won’t win any votes for going on Rove and to think so is just plain silly. We need less questions about ear wax and who you’d turn gay for and more on Rudd’s agenda and his policies which so far the media have failed miserably to scrutinise.
And for the record this election will be close whoever wins, a Labor landslide is fanciful considering the polls are narrowing but not enough to definitively make this election undecided. Nevertheless Howard or Rudd won’t have a majority of more than 10 seats IMHO.
I’ll try to dig up some more info tomorrow.
Glen I don’t think anyone has suggested the Rove appearance will change many votes (I suggested most of the viewers were already onside).
Glen, nearly every 30s something person I know watches Rove for they want a laugh and relax before heading of to
“workchoices land”
“at this stage its all nazal gazing.”
Is that looking down your nose?
But seriously folks, I just got an email from a friend who said her two daughters (aged 11 and 13) got hugely excited when they heard Kevin Rudd was going to be on Rove. I tell you, Kevin07 has been very cleverly marketed, and he is becoming a sex symbol.
There are shades of 1972 here (I am old enough to remember), when there was excitement amongst the young about a new Prime Minister and a change of government. This sort of feeling tends to be a bit irrational and emotional, and it’s a tide that’s very hard to turn back.
{We don’t need a ‘cool’ PM, we need the right PM and Howard is the right leader IMHO.}
And you need a new slogan Glen. How ’bout “We’re not waiting for a Cooler World.”?
I think my respect for Glen, Edward StJ, Generic Person and the other Lib supporters on this site will definately increase if we find them here on next Sunday arvo.
I think it would be unfortunate if we don’t here a post election analysis from them after they have put up with our shit to make contributions for so long now.
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