Morgan has published results of a large-sample phone poll of 1670 respondents, “including 1,025 electors in 22 key L-NP marginal seats”. This has focused on seven such seats in New South Wales, pointing to a swing of 7.7 per cent, four in Victoria for 4.8 per cent, four in Queensland for 13.9 per cent, three in South Australia for 6.6 per cent, two in Tasmania for 9.9 per cent, and two in Western Australia for a swing of 3.1 per cent away from Labor. I am unsure on what basis Morgan has arrived at the conclusion that “the ALP looks set to win between 14 and 24 seats”. We are told without explanation that the swing in NSW is “not uniform” and that “the L-NP could still hold Bennelong, Dobell and Wentworth”, without any corresponding allowance for Labor gaining seats outside the range. Despite the swing in South Australia, it is apparently the case that Labor might not win Wakefield, which I find extremely difficult to believe. The overall result of the poll is a 46.5 per cent primary vote for Labor and 40 per cent for the Coalition, for a two-party preferred result of 56-44. It would require tremendous creativity to build a scenario from these figures that would only deliver Labor 14 seats.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Morgan phone poll: 56-44
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678 Comments
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Glen, yes GLEN!!! wrote:
Okay, what happened? Who changed the universe while I was out!
Cue: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ovWA-bfd1I
#248 And of course, the difference is that, in 1972, the 18-21s didn’t have the vote. Now they do (thanks to Whitlam). Under Menzies/Holt/McMahon, of course, they could be conscripted for Vietnam and shot dead, but couldn’t be trusted near a ballot box.
Poss, are you going to crunch this stuff. Is it possible? Looks like a dog’s breakfast o me.
Has anyone noticed ANY positive Lib ads? Ones that might start with “This is the Liberal plan to keep inflation low…”. All we get is scare, scare, scare….ATTACK. Or is this the appropriate impression created by the Libs – “we can only think negative”
But on the Rove thing – last week it rated 1.145m viewers. I’m betting it will beat that this wek quite easily.
ABC Radio News is reporting on Ridd’ ‘n’ Rove in detail with sound bites. The sting in the tail is a swipe at Baz’s dummy spit re Rudd’s now show on Insiders where the fact that Howard had decline an invitation to appear on the show. Clearly not everybody at the ABC likes Baz.
BMWofVictoria
Give me an episode of ‘Yes Minister’ any day over Rove, it’s far more entertaining and has more laughs than Hughes going crazy for 2mins yelling about random stuff.
Big Blind Dave
Regardless who wins ill be here on Sunday but i should expect the winning side Tory or Labor to have their jibes and then move on to debating politics and the wash up. I can tell you one thing if its purely abuse to be on offer and we tories are thrown out i shant be here that’s for sure. But if political debate is the focus and not personal attacks i shall be here either in joy or disappointment.
Peter Kemp
LOL the same people who are arguing we’ve got global warming said 30 years ago we were headed for an ice age, go figure lol! So 30 years ago we were headed for a cooler world lol!
255- Mad professor
I saw an ad for libs doing something about grafitti and trafic hoons in my local area- it was almost positive.
Should it be disqualified because the issues have stuff all to do with them?
I agree Yes Minister was funnier than Rove
Gary Nairn is apparently strong on crime…
“considering the polls are narrowing”
This is a strange thing to say in comments on a thread about a 56:44 poll, in the shadows of the election.
Oh well.
Re Rudd on Rove, Rudd is very cleverly selling himself as so un-cool, he is cool. No doubt some marketing genius in Hawker Britton thought of the idea, and it is a good one. By going on Rove, Rudd is not trying to convert anyone. He doesn’t have to; he is a miles in front. He is locking them in.
Compare with Beazley.
Beazley would never have gone on Rove. He would have gone on Insiders and been really earnest, and really boring.
Beazley last year called for Big Brother to be taken off the air. Rudd this year went on FM radio and told the 18-24s that while BB wasn’t his thing, each to his own and all that.
BMW – seems Glen may be suffering from pre- Thatcherite rejection syndrome – early symptoms include a marked decline in sense of humour.
255 – there has been one which says if you vote lib you are voting for $34billion tax cuts, some other plans, an experienced team and for the govt to be able to eat your children.
Or something like that
“LOL the same people who are arguing we’ve got global warming said 30 years ago we were headed for an ice age, go figure lol! So 30 years ago we were headed for a cooler world lol!”
Glen, a short answer: no they didn’t.
Apparently, at the Swan View Show yesterday, Judi Moylan was there with the Stuart Henry Campaign Caravan with the usual lib stuff about 70% union bosses etc, but there was no crowds around it
Howard promises renewed attack on drugs. Sunday Herald.
“A re-elected coalition government would take control of the welfare payments of people convicted of offences involving hard drugs, Prime Minister John Howard announced today.”
May I be the first to admit. If Howard wins sign me up for some chemical assistance. Another term of him and his cronies would be more than many of us could handle unassisted.
Seems to me Howard is running out of people to attack. Next it will be people who own a dog and don’t clean up it’s deposits. And also people who insist on wearing white thongs on their feet in public.
Can’t wait for next weekend.
I think Father Ted was alot funnier than Rove and just a little funnier than Yes Minister.
I f the arguement were about whether Yes Minister is funnier than Rove you would win Glen, unfootunately classic 1980s BBC political comedies won’t affect the 2007 Australian election (more’s the pity)
Flaneur when it came out it deserved to get flogged as Rudd looked like a tool doing it but now when we want to here about policy it’s stupid to keep reminding us of it. Did Rove actually have anything critical to say or questioning to say of Rudd’s policies or was it a love in??
Mad professor, the only positive ads i’ve seen are the local candidate ads in Victoria but no full length Tory advertising that is positive on the TV WTF is going on here?
I saw at the movies when i took my mother to Crown in the previews we watched a positive Liberal ad and she said why on earth haven’t we been putting these ads out on TV?? I think there is a place for negative ads but if the Tories don’t bring out any positive ads in the last week ill be very surprised and disappointed.
BTW i have not see a positive Labor ad out either?
Hmm, interesting Albert Ross, I bet big Bazza might start to regret his little dummy spit with Julia Gillard this morning.
Crikey, she kneed him where it hurts, and he dutifully obeyed, and then got on with the serious questions. She doesn’t muck around with nonsense, does she?
Arent there only three days of Pol ads to go?
231 – I have only met a couple of swinger/non affiliated Howard supporters in that age-group (well, my age group), and all of them singlehandedly use the same reasoning – that they wont trust the country to Labor given the disgracful job they have done in NSW. And you know what? If i diddnt know any better, that would probably swing my vote that side too… But for every one of them, I have probably 20 peers who will be not voting for the coalition.
Bob Brown and Kevin Rudd were awesome tonight, and I cant see them not winning their respective houses in a weeks time. Gosh im excited that its almost here though!
{LOL the same people who are arguing we’ve got global warming said 30 years ago we were headed for an ice age}
You’ll need to show some evidence there Glen, but even if that was true, you’re obfuscating the issue, like someone else we know, rather too well.
KR @ 271 – that “jilted lover” comment was one of the more cutting ones of the campaign im my opinion.
Davo
Excellent detailed work, my considered opinion – 30 seats – noice!
Blind Dave – yeah 54 works for me as well, 53 is ok, 52 would start me muttering about sampling error and the like.
Antonio @ 227. One of the most insightful postings I’ve seen in a good long while. There is a societal shift happening and they vote.
OH God Glen, I didn’t realise you were a climate change denier as well. I suppose you wouldn’t sail out of view of land in case you sailed off the edge of the earth too?
While we are on funny shows is there anything better than Blackadder
Only 3 more nights of ads….
thank God.
I will form my opinion when I see the result. One thing is already clear, without the liberals the party is unelectable.
Take a long hard look at Britain if you believe otherwise.
#255 No mad professor, not a single positive Lib ad anywhere. You’d have thought they would have at least promoted their tax cuts. Bizarre. Either their marketing is hopeless, or they’re too spooked by the risk of inflation.
I’m waiting for the ads about how creating hundreds of little volunteer hospital boards will reduce waiting lists. I’m sure that would be a winner.
If their policies are so good, why won’t not mention them???
Labor has a mix of positive and negative, which is pretty normal really. I haven’t seen a TOTALLY negative campaign since “the guilty party” ads that brought Kennett to power. And, to be fair, the Libs had good material to work with, and a population desperate to get rid of the Kirner Government.
I don’t detect a desperation to throw Howard out of office, more a desire for a change. If that’s the case, why aren’t the Libs listing clear plans for their next term, the way Rudd is doing for Labor? Rudd’s plan may be superficial (broadband, ed revolution, exit strategy for Iraq, fix public hospitals) but at least I can remember what it is!
Hey Frank @252, isn’t that guitarist rising out the the pool Kevin Rudd?
Latest from the Chaser team-Lynn Allison is their prediction for next PM and, taking his cue from Pakistan, the Rodent will bring in martial law if the next poll doesn’t improve!
Glen is actually the fuhrer, please refer to him as Shatzy Johnny
PURE GOLD- MARGINAL LIB ASHAMED OF HIS PARTY
Just had a call from a mate in Hasluck. apparently he saw Lib Member had a stall and meet and greet in a shopping center in Midland.
There was no reference to Liberal Party, or John Howard, or anything that would tie him to the Liberal Party, not even young Libs helping out.
My mate is not political in any real sense but thought it fair to the punters that he sat on a park bench next to the satll as he ate his lunch and correct Stuart Henry every time he introduced himself.
Stuart would say “I’m Stuart Henry, your local member for Hasluck” my mate would say out loud “Local Liberal member actually, but he hasn’t told that to anyone all day- I wonder why”
Aparently Stuart got really shitty, but would not be drawn on the question about why he wasn’t proclaiming his party, he gave my mate the silent treatment on that question.
Glen,
It wouldn’t matter what Rudd did, you still wouldn’t say he’d win any votes but in any case I don’t think he did it expecting that his appearance on Rove alone would win him any votes.
Edward,
100% correct. They kept saying the Libs were finished all through the Hawke years and we all know how those predictions turned out.
Possibly not the headline Howard was hoping for:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/18/2094097.htm
Glen, my dear contrarian:
A significant proportion of 18-30 voters have only a vague notion of the differences between the two main parties, as they are busy enjoying life, or trying to establish their lives. Some just vote the same way as their parents, and perceive political discourse as distant thunder rumbling above their heads.
But now, thanks to global warming and WorkChoices, a lot have realized that decisions taken in Parliament make a real difference to their lives. Howard has only acknowledged our youngest voters by screwing them – and here we have another politician prepared to engage them on their own turf (notwithstanding the fact Rove jumped the shark 2-3 years ago). Sounds like yet another master-stroke to me.
One cold bright day you’ll acknowledge how comprehensively your man Howard has been outplayed this year Glen. Though personally, just between you and me, I don’t think you are a rusted on Howard voter at all … just a contrarian like Christopher Hitchens or Andrew Bolt, but about 25 IQ points lower.
PS: If Rove said “so your wife is a man!”, Rudd could’ve always replied, “When it comes to garbage night, she definitely wears the pants.” Would have locked in the hen-pecked husband vote there
Oooo yes!
Finally saw the full version of the anti bob baldwin ad.
nice
Black adder yes, Ive got the WW1 ones on dvd
Glen,
Being a Gen X, a git and the beneficiary of an education system underfunded by both the Liberals Huns and the ALP barbarians you will not have read Æsop, I suggest that you obtain a copy of his Fables and study it carefully with particular attention to The Fox and the Grapes.
Snapper at 254 – it is a dogs breakfast
EStJ 238: “If you want an objective opinion dont ask a staffer they know nothing. Its like asking Igor whether Master is going to suck the blood out of 3 or 4 virgins tonight.”
That’s the line of the week!! LOL
Ive always suspected that Baldrick was modelled on Howard. Blackadder on Keating and George on Costello.
Captn Darling is Tony Abbot and General Melchart is Rupert Murdoch.
Glen wrote:
First off, I actually agreed with most of what you wrote. It was only when
I saw that you had written it that I had a What The? moment.
Secondly, we are taking about the same Rove aren’t we? Or is there another
Rove that does hard-hitting political interviews?
I am looking forward to reading about topics more earnest than earwax, though.
244 Glen “Rudd won’t win any votes for going on Rove and to think so is just plain silly. We need less questions about ear wax and who you’d turn gay for and more on Rudd’s agenda and his policies which so far the media have failed miserably to scrutinise.” Glen this is the reason the Liberal Party are seen to be so out of touch.
You’re not suggesting Gerr that Howard might “have a cunning plan” are you?
I dont claim any expertise on the environment but there is a real smell about climate change which reminds me of nuclear disarmament party circa 1984.
There are certain people in the community who do like to believe in the end of the world (ironic given the decline of organised religion) and every so often there has to be a cause or issue, it was nukes in the 80’s its climate change in the naughties.
Both are serious issues and both lent themselves to extreme statements like “getting rid of coal” in the case of climate change. My favourite of course is the walk against warming – real trotfest that one, what will be next ban dogs because they fart and emit gasses.
Cynical trots use issue like these to answer to positions of power and generally dont cause much trouble but the idealistic ones cost people jobs and there livelihood.
Im not too fussed, I think KR wont have a bar of it, he will go through with a show of signing Kyoto and that will be that – unless the G8+ Chinese do a real deal.
Yep, some slap across the face that “jilted lover” jibe. Whoa, that Julia is the smiling assasin, ain’t she somethin’?
I’m sure Bazza will be smarting from that one for a very long time to come…like every time he has to ask questions from the Deputy Prime Minister of Australia.
Ooooh, that sounds good, eh?
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