Morgan has published results of a large-sample phone poll of 1670 respondents, “including 1,025 electors in 22 key L-NP marginal seats”. This has focused on seven such seats in New South Wales, pointing to a swing of 7.7 per cent, four in Victoria for 4.8 per cent, four in Queensland for 13.9 per cent, three in South Australia for 6.6 per cent, two in Tasmania for 9.9 per cent, and two in Western Australia for a swing of 3.1 per cent away from Labor. I am unsure on what basis Morgan has arrived at the conclusion that “the ALP looks set to win between 14 and 24 seats”. We are told without explanation that the swing in NSW is “not uniform” and that “the L-NP could still hold Bennelong, Dobell and Wentworth”, without any corresponding allowance for Labor gaining seats outside the range. Despite the swing in South Australia, it is apparently the case that Labor might not win Wakefield, which I find extremely difficult to believe. The overall result of the poll is a 46.5 per cent primary vote for Labor and 40 per cent for the Coalition, for a two-party preferred result of 56-44. It would require tremendous creativity to build a scenario from these figures that would only deliver Labor 14 seats.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Morgan phone poll: 56-44
Copyright © 2008 Private Media Pty Ltd, Publishers of Crikey.com.au. All Rights Reserved.
Independent news, blogs and commentary on politics, media and business.
Editor: Jonathan Green.
Publishers: Eric Beecher, Diana Gribble.
Level 7, 22 William St, Melbourne, 3000. Ph: 1800 985 502 Fax: (03) 8623 9975
678 Comments
Pages: « 1 … 5 6 [7] 8 9 … 14 » Show All
Greg
LOL
Yeah, ABout as clever as Baldrick’s.
{Black adder yes, Ive got the WW1 ones on dvd}
Familiar ring of confidence with both Howard and General Melchett:
Melchett: “Nothing but pig headed stubborness will see us through.
…………the Germans will never suspect on the 17th occasion that we’ll carry out the same plan we had 16 times before.”
Glen…how’s this for a new Lib solgan…
“John Howard – tough on cooling, and tough on the causes of cooling”
No 292
I’ve had the opportunity to travel around the world, to talk to people, to read. It hasn’t made me any more willing to join the cesspool of leftists.
I mean Grog
‘This Robin Hood uniform is just in case you come across a French village and it’s fancy dress,
Blackadder – What about if I come across a French village and it isn;t fancy dress Baldrik?
I’m afraid I hadn’t planned for that contingency Captain.’
Glen, lol you are a bit behind the times lol on global warming lol.
John Howard lol says that human activity is causing climate change and that carbon emissions have to be cut back.
This is Liberal Party policy lol. And National Party policy lol.
Lol.
It’s been a while since I heard Andrew Bolt claiming that climate change is the greatest swindle since the last time someone sold the Harbour Bridge.
Has he decided to pull in his ignorant head?
Like the way he claimed on Insiders today that the Labor party has run a ‘brilliant’ strategy?
Who said leopards can’t change their spots?
300 Edward StJohn Says: November 18th, 2007 at 10:27 pm
The mantra of all climate skeptics.
The answers to the questions, including our ACTUAL impact, compared to other countries are all there if you choose to look for them.
But you’re too busy dreaming up word games to justify your denial.
Glen would also be a member of the Flat Earth Society, remember what happened to Copernicus? Me? I am a member of the Limp Fallers Association. Remember them?
‘This robin hood unifrom is just incase you travel through a frecnh village and it turns out to be a ceepit of leftists.’
‘What if I come across a french village and it isn’t a cesspit of leftists baldrick?’
‘I’m afraid I hadn’t planned for that contingency Captain as I believe every piece of ludicrous crap that comes out of John Howards mouth, eve the stuff he makes up to see if I’ll swallow and guess what? I do everytime….’
Hmm, I just rewatched it – Eric McCusker DOES look like Kevin Rudd circa the Goss years.
#292 Alan H….you were WHAT??! Reading to your daughter???
Get over it. That’s a LATHAM policy. He’s been discredited.
Get your daughter a laptop, mate. Put her in a Kevin’07 T-Shirt and help her log her into a chatroom.
Get with the education revolution, you Luddite.
279
BMWofVictoria Says:
November 18th, 2007 at 10:17 pm
While we are on funny shows is there anything better than Blackadder
Looking out on the progress on the Lib’s campaign, one is left with the sneaking suspicion that the tactical genius at the helm is none other than S.Baldrick.
Kirribilli Removals,
Bolt is still a Climate Change skeptic. He regularly goes on about it in the Herald Sun and his blog. He hasn’t changed on that issue.
And what are your qualifications on the environment Pi, you get spiritual when you see the beach or do you have any real knowledge, or maybe you watched inconvenient truth?
I’m with you GP
Those Cesspool Leftists- when will the understand the trickle down effect really works, there are so many examples of it around the world, or at least as many examples as where communism works.
I wouldn’t read shame into the Libs tactic of not having John Howard on their election material. It’s just down to their ‘local campaign’ strategy. Nothing at all to do with shame. It may be stupid… but if it works it works.
BBD,
Do you think any unions in WA will be insolvent in the next 3 years?
This is dedicated to all future ex Liberal MP’s -
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=pCWw6W5NEa8
Great advice!
ESJ – Can I ask why you keep bringing up unions being insolvent in a few years? Have I missed something??
# 305 Generic Person Says: November 18th, 2007 at 10:29 pm
cesspool? Hmm… ok.
But there’s a difference between 20 years experience, and one years experience 20 times over. I’ve met lots of people in my travels that are just as ignorant and bigoted as when they walked out of their parents house.
Most people learn as they experience new things. Some people resist learning from their experiences, and want the world to conform to their very narrow-minded world-view. Take a bow.
I’m sorry, but anyone who doesn’t believe in climate change is an idiot.
The question is whether it is substantially being caused by human activity.
(Answer: yes, it is)
On climate change, Howard seems to have adopted a standard line. He says it’s a matter of concern, but doesn’t believe that the world is going to end tomorrow.
This is disingenuous.
One could equally say that interest rates are a concern, but I don’t believe they’ll go up again tomorrow. Or hospitals are a concern, but I don’t believe all the patients will die tomorrow.
It’s an approach that avoids the issue, and tries to whistle at two dogs, going in different directions.
Why do you ask, Two Dogs? (sorry, couldn’t resist)
lol Spiros, lol.
I was curious about BBD’s view, many are in fact technically insolvent and are holding on with grim determination for this election.
Yes, LTEP they left him off because they’re so proud of him as the right leader for this country…
Dogs are not ruminants ESJ, so their farts contain very little methane. And its a myth anyway that most methane comes from the rear end – it is mostly belched by cattle and sheet as their anerobic bacteria digest happily away. I certainly don’t dispute your “I don’t claim any expertise but…” preamble!
No 322
Who is the ignorant bigot again? You seem to be implying that anyone who doesn’t subscribe to pinko leftism is ignorant. How misinformed and wrong you are.
ESJ – And your source is whom?
319- Edward
I certainly believe a change in government won’t save them if they are heading in that direction, it will be their own doing at least in part.
I see some unions growing at the moment and some declining.
Unions that think of themselves as institutions within a framework are declining and those that see themselves as active organisations with higher member involvement at the shop floor are growing.
This one for you BBD @ # 317.
It has a real trekle down effect!
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=yxKjNos-UVA
Edward,
Again with your obsession about the Unions. Do you check under your bed to see if there are any Union Bosses hiding?
Thanks for the update paul K, as I don’t usually waste my time trying to fathom the rantings of a third rate journalist who fumbles around with scientific data and comes out with the utterly illogical. He’s a disgraceful self-promoter with the usual problem: ego in inverse proportion to intellect.
# 316 Edward StJohn Says: November 18th, 2007 at 10:36 pm
I’m a senior manager in one of the largest engineering companies in Australia.
LTEP you could not possibly be a Labor supporter when going in to bat and defend Howard, Liberals and Coalition at every turn. They are ashamed of John Howard. He is the real issue of this campaign. If it is just a local campaign tactic, why was Howard and Liberal logo over all Libs campaigns since 1996 bar 2007?
“Tough on drug addicts, tough on the causes of drug addicts.”
(promiscuous injections)
No 323
Samuel K, please cite a definitive and 100% conclusive statement from the IPCC or anyone else that confirms anthropogenic global warming.
Can’t find anything? Because no such statement exists.
RGee-
Look at http://www.airc.gov.au and take the organisation files link which shows all the balance sheets for unions in Australia, many of the 2007 annual reports are coming in and demonstrate what in liquidators parlance is termed “inability to meet debts as and when they fall due”, ie insolvency.
It doesn’t mean that at all Grog, the Liberal’s are probably just attempting to counter the presidential style campaign of Labor with a ‘team’ campaign (very Australian).
I wouldn’t say it’s particularly smart… but as I said… if it works it works. They’ve literally got nothing to lose.
Ryan Voter at # 144 …
The seat of Ryan may be even more in play after page 8 of todays Sunday Mail reported that sitting member Michael Johnson (LIB) was booked by Police on Thursday for driving at 55 km/h in a 40 km/h school zone, and also that he failed to attend a candidates debate on climate change the previous week.
Is that the best you can come up with GP? Calling me a communist?
Stick to the funny-pages kid.
Generic Person, going to Rottnest doesn’t count.
333 PaulK
I dont mind Edwards questions, i believe they are genuine
Nah Paul K there all (the union bosses) running for parliament instead!
STOP THE PRESS!
Game for a laugh?
The new Janet Airheadson is up on The GG. Well it WAS up and it got pulled, she’s got a new photo, (skanking it up) and the blurb read something about Aus becoming a welfare society….
Now I’m trying to work out how she will twist the facts to make out that it is not Howards fault but it is Rudd’s fault and especially Gillard’s fault…and um…not errr….Howard’s um….doing.
Yes, the post is a complete waste of space. It’s the material I have to work with see? Im sorry I brought ‘her’ up.
Does anyone have a report on the South Australian seats? Also, it would be good to know what effect the Workers Rights campaigns have had around Australia. Depending on who you talk to, they could be the equivalent of another campaign running next to the Labor campaign.
Yes v.interested BBD
But which union is growing, the SDA maybe? any others?
Generic Person Says: “Samuel K, please cite a definitive and 100% conclusive statement…”
This shows your ignorance in how Science works. Like most global warming skeptics, they probably believe in God, but not in something that thousands of scientists around the world, experts in climate science, have said is almost certainly caused by humans.
Oh, and I guess you will ask, but I have a degree in science.
So Pi means diddlies in terms of environmental quals. That tells me you like maths anything else?
I wouldn’t think putting your leader on the leaflet would devalue the team.
From memory the ALP used the same excuse in 96 when Keating was left off.
Pages: « 1 … 5 6 [7] 8 9 … 14 » Show All