Morgan has published results of a large-sample phone poll of 1670 respondents, “including 1,025 electors in 22 key L-NP marginal seats”. This has focused on seven such seats in New South Wales, pointing to a swing of 7.7 per cent, four in Victoria for 4.8 per cent, four in Queensland for 13.9 per cent, three in South Australia for 6.6 per cent, two in Tasmania for 9.9 per cent, and two in Western Australia for a swing of 3.1 per cent away from Labor. I am unsure on what basis Morgan has arrived at the conclusion that “the ALP looks set to win between 14 and 24 seats”. We are told without explanation that the swing in NSW is “not uniform” and that “the L-NP could still hold Bennelong, Dobell and Wentworth”, without any corresponding allowance for Labor gaining seats outside the range. Despite the swing in South Australia, it is apparently the case that Labor might not win Wakefield, which I find extremely difficult to believe. The overall result of the poll is a 46.5 per cent primary vote for Labor and 40 per cent for the Coalition, for a two-party preferred result of 56-44. It would require tremendous creativity to build a scenario from these figures that would only deliver Labor 14 seats.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Morgan phone poll: 56-44
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678 Comments
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Ill talk polls! Waddaya gat?
On the release IPCC report – it has to be worth the ALP pushing it over next the news cycle.
So while Howard is trying to get a wedge going with his “pushing more druggies into more crime” policy – surely Rudd can use this over the next cycle?
HH – Nah, the tories are too busy trolling.
397 Howard Hater Yes it would be nice, but the Flat Earthers and the Creationalists are out in full force.
When Morgan do their phone polls what % of calls are to mobile phones, I wonder? None of the Y gen, and only some of X, have landlines or can ever be found at home.
‘Labor View from Broome’
No 393
But there was demonstrable proof and evidence that CFCs damaged the ozone layer, whereas currently, much of gloabl warming science is based on computer modelling.
EJS. If you join a union here are some of the benefits & services they do provide -
Your union will always put the protection of members’ jobs, wages and working conditions first.
But, because we are a progressive union we recognise that there is much more that we can do.
We have developed the extremely impressive range of services listed in this site, and will continue to improve and extend this list.
These days we don’t aim to protect just you – we are striving to ensure your family is looked after as well.
That’s why we have introduced
FUNERAL BENEFITS – for financial members, their partner and dependant children
CHEAPER HOME LOANS
FREE LEGAL HELP
FREE COUNSELLING – for financial members, their partner and dependant children
ETC. – the list goes on.
If you haven’t yet joined the union – you should do so quickly because you never know when you may need our help.
We have your interests at heart and guarantee that when you join you will get top value for your money.
RGee why is it when you lot talk up Rudd’s appearance on Rove to high heaven that is not trolling but whenever we tories open our mouthes we are trolling do not belittle our contribution to this blog RGee.
Chris B i can hardly be a Flat Earther or a Creationist if i am an atheist? Just so you know?
Any tips for Newspoll??
Ill go out on a limb and say 52-48.
The next Liberal Party Prime Minister ( perhaps many years away ) will be a Greenie in comparison to the current party and also a Republican. Howard is the last Climate Change skeptic we have as leader of the nation. Years from now all you skeptics will be embarrassed to admit that you followed Howard and Bush’s line on Climate Change.
You ever see the 80s Reagan Political ad about the bear in the woods Very Generic ?
376
Generic Person Says:
November 18th, 2007 at 10:53 pm
No 360
“Samuel, I do believe in Global Warming and Climate Change, but I do not believe that humans can manipulate climate.”
….
GP, “manipulation” is not the concept to use. The first issue is cause and effect. Is human activity causing climate change? Almost certainly,on all the evidence. Can we do anything about it? Maybe. Should we try? We’d be very very foolish not to.
Since you are this blog’s “village idiot”, I’m sure you will not want to try at all.
No more climate change for today.
# 387 Marko Says: November 18th, 2007 at 10:58 pm
If people pay, we build. It’s that simple. When energy costs increase to double what they are today, those options become economically viable. And they WILL increase to that cost because of the cost of carbon-credits as part of a kyoto protocol arrangement.
There is no real alternative, and the governments (and their supporters) that continue to deny its existence, or resist measures to solve it, are slowly AND surely being consigned to the scrap-heap of history. It’s good they continue to ramble on about the subject, because it continues to highlight whats at stake, and the consequences of letting the liberals continue on as if ignoring it will make the problem go away.
Enforcement of climate change ban to commence now.
I agree if it Rudd by 4 seats then the Liberal party will continue. Unfortunately it will not put the pressure on the party to implement the required changes. The takeover by the religious right will continue.
Not going to happen unless there are big changes in the Liberal party, you got rid of the liberals, it is now going to come back and bite you big time.
William what about Flat Earth?
Glen @ 408 – Settle petal…
Sorry, Chris?
Just a joke.
The last Newspoll was 55-45, rite?
If so, I’m saying 54-46 – nothing to back that up, just a hunch…
I’m goin’ mad with comment deletion here.
I agree with William. If you want to debate climate change, there are other boards for those discussions. Aren’t we meant to be talking polls here?
I’ll say once again, watch where the leaders are campaigning.
The Rodent was in Greenway yesterday – margin of 10%.
I’m going to predict Labor wins every seat in Western Sydney, even Macarthur and Greenway.
And I think Labor will get Hughes back too
Glen,
The people who are praising Rudd’s performance are not trolling.Have you read your Aesop yet?
I reckon 56-44
In theory at least, this Newspoll should be close to the final outcome, which I expect to be 52 – 53. So I will go for 53/47…. to Labor.
Going back to something raised earlier tonight, has anyone else (apart from mad cow in Paterson) seen any ads from Labor talking about individual MP’s voting records in Parliament relating to Workchoices?
I reckon ads based on that would be really effective – it takes away the “incumbency” factor whilst focusing attention to Workchoices. I know that these sorts of ads work really well in the US House of Reps elections, particularly when Democrats try to attack moderate Republicans in Democratic-leaning seats.
What a narrow minded bunch.
Economies thrive on change ( and war). Converting our economy to sustainable alternatives is enormous change. There are many business opportunities ( would have been more if Howard and co hadn’t stuffed up R&D investment).
I just can’t get over how short sighted you lot are.
well done, william. it’s your blog and you should call the shotz
No 424
Our comments are not intended to bait anyone. Indeed, they exist to provide balance to an extremely one sided debate.
When is the damn newspoll? There;ll be one on Saturday.
Kev
That bit about mobile phones and young kids has been mentioned before, yet youth vote for labor is very high, may also explain why F2F is higher.
I’d reckon Newspoll around 58-42.
Thanks William, and it is hard not to get caught up in it.
Gerr, I might have been unfair in deleting your previous comment. Arguably. Anyway, can’t be undone I’m afraid.
The ALP will not win Fisher. I live in Fisher & there is little local evidence of an election here, just the odd leering Slipper on a grassy noll & occasional TV ads about hoons. Most TV ads are the national ALP/LNP ads.
As I said some weeks ago the only chance is that the independent will outpoll the ALP & get enough preferences to roll slippery. Unfortunately the independent FM breakfast announcer is running a “Vote 1 Caroline” campaign &…you guessed it….there are 2 Caroline/Carolyns as candidates, splitting the Caroline vote.
So there’s a newspoll tomorrow?
If it was a good one for the Libs, Sky would have leaked it already.
GP
Well now there are no sides as there is no debate. Problem solved.
Evening all, nothing like the cool breeze on ya face as you nail up Labor posters on a Sunday night. Cheer/Abuse tally 5-2, and I’m in a safe lib seat.
Tomorrow or Tuesday.
Edward (sorry for late reply- just watched Rudd on Rove)
WA State Governments dont hand anything over to the Feds- LIb or Labor
Mirror system is the closest it will get in my opinion.
ESJ I doubt it. I don’t see any of the states referring many of their powers.
HH,
Not sure if there’s a Newspoll tomorrow. There was no mention of it on Agenda at 9:30 tonight, so I guess we’ll have to check The Oz’s website around midnight (I was tempted to say ‘the old fashioned way’, but I realise checking a newspaper website for polling results isn’t exactly old-fashioned…)
I think we need to let go of the days of Newspolls of 56 and 58. People are actually close to voting now and they ain’t gonna vote 56 or 58 in Labor’s favour. Ain’t gonna happen in a national election in this country.
That’s ok, Ill just wander the streets and tell passing strangers about my hardluck story on this blog, how I got blackbanned by the powers that be for telling the inconvenient truth…DOH I meantioned climate change again!
When is the newspoll due? I think the final poll will be 53.7 to 46.3 in Labor’s favor and i htink the polls this week will refelect that.
I can confidently tell you there’s not a chance in hell Labor will win Berowra. In fact, there’s no election campaign at all going on in this seat. Both ALP and Libs are focused more on Bennelong.
I predict either of the following:
1. Coalition victory with 150 seat total majority
2. Coalition victory with 1 seat majority.
LTEP,
I am told SA and Tas are just waiting for the poll (and Rudd) to hand over IR powers. That would make 3 states out of IR altogether hence I think it would be hard for the other 3 to stay in, but BBD may be v.right about WA – I think from memory they still have a state Family Law Court.
haha GP. Tabitha already beat you to the first prediction.
1 seat majority would be interesting. The Whips’ lives would be hell.
Coincidentally, are you a doctor?
They do ESJ. I used to work just across the street from it.
Totally off-topic,
But can anyone remember the blogger/commenter who left after accusing William of being Glen in disguise?
I’m just trying to think of the most amusing/idiotic commenters that we’ve had on this site this year…
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