The Sunday Fairfax papers (see here and here) carry a Taverner poll covering mortgage holders only from Sydney and Melbourne, showing a 57-43 lead to Labor. There was apparently a similar poll published during the 2004 campaign which had the Coalition leading 54-46 among this group, but I can’t find any record of it. Seats in which this looks like bad news for the Coalition include La Trobe, McMillan, Corangamite, Deakin and McEwen in and around Melbourne, and Lindsay, Parramatta, Dobell, Robertson and Macarthur in the Sydney area.
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Taverner: Labor leads among mortgage holders
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The headline in tomorrow’s papers will probably be Rudd’s answer to Rove’s question: “Who would you turn gay for?” LOL
444 Cleobassett- there’s a link from opus to the vatican. Actually, they’ve got a really nice website. Perhaps for those just back from Sunday School.
http://www.vatican.va/phome_en.htm
yeah it was. Its what im basing my assumption on
Rudd responds to the IPCC Report.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federalelection2007economy/rudd-pledge-on-emissions/2007/11/18/1195321594035.html
No new announcement, but methinks more people will be worried about climate change than welfare for addicts.
Rack up another lie for Howard:
This election has become Lyathon for Howard.
PM mining promise:
Prime Minister John Howard says Western Australia’s mining boom will continue under a Coalition government.
Mr Howard stresses if Labor is elected it will mean the end of the prosperity currently experienced within the mining industry.
http://www2.skynews.com.au/news/article.aspx?id=201382
412@new aussie Ask why are people thinking the ALP can score 55% TPP when 53% is huge
Yes 53% would be a convincing win, but all the long term polling is pointing to a clear 55-45 result, the ALP have maintained a primary vote lead of around 10% all year.
The poll numbers have looked similar to the numbers seen at State level for 10 years, while the idea of a 7-8 percent swing may sound out there when you consider history it isn’t that far fetched.
Lets look back over the past few elections and I will use a Cricket anagly
In the 2001 and 2004 test the wicket favored the batman, with Howard able to score easily on a flat track with the ALP bowling short and wide of off-stump, come 2007 the pitch has a nice green covering with several cracks its been overcast and Rudd has bowled a nice spell, bowling with good line and length forcing Howard to play from the crease, Rudd now has the field up around the bat, Howards partners have been throwing their wickets away with poor shot selection and poor running between the wicket.
World won’t end tomorrow-Howard
Evidently, it won’t end until he quits mid-term so it really doesn’t matter. Let’s just ignore it and hope it goes away.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22778836-12377,00.html
Coalition bloggers are few and far between, and most of them seem to be trolling with no real input to the debate. Not that they have anything real to contribute anyway, their man is acting like an octogenerian on acid.
That’s spam? Fair enough,I’ll just send a link next time.
I had thought it had relevance to the last week of the campaign, as being discussed here, given that one of the main lines of media emphasis is already on this issue and it has elicited statements from both Howard:
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22778836-5005962,00.html
and Garrett:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/18/2093982.htm
But I guess, in the end, it’s the economy, stupid, so I’ll pipe down about relative trivialities.
Bit of perspective……….
Howard’s own words “6000 people”
So 6000 x $200 (dole amount?) x 52 weeks = $62.4 mill
Druggies $62 mill
AWB $300 mill
Rural Rorts $300
Visy $400 – $700 mill
Ponting has not enforced the follow on. Cleary Ponting is trying to help Rudd by making sure the test goes the full distance and soaks up people’s attention span.
BTW I have not seen a political ad whilst watching the Cricket – is there some wisdom that suggests it bad to interupt people while that are watching sport?
BMW, glad to see you’ve got the cricket on in the background as well!
John Howard: “God prefers Liberal Party policies!”.
And the Rodent expects to win, he says he’ll be spending next Sunday planning for his 5th term in office.
What a deluded old man! He ain’t going to take defeat well:
http://www.ozelection2007.info/forums/viewtopic.php?id=1912
On that oz report dio, Howard has fatally misread the alarm among the public for action on the issue. In this election, people appear to be voting for their kids: WorkChoices, Climate change, education, health. Howard’s attempts to connect everything to economic management doesnt seem to have worked. Heres hoping it doesnt!
The drugs wedge is not so much about Labor, but the Greens.
The Liberal Party bombarded ACT letter boxes with an Exclusive Brethren-style smear against the Greens this weekend, in a desperate attempt to save Garry Humphries now clearly perilous Senate seat.
They are going down the whole “Greens-want-to-legalise-every-drug” angle, to stop the doctors’ wives voting Green (and believe me, many are intending to do so, much of the Green vote this election will come from disaffected Liberals who can’t bring themselves to vote Labor 1).
It wont work in the ACT, but it may work elsewhere.
Re the drug wedge, if it was applied to alcohol abuse and criminality, the states would suffer revenue loss and lawyers doing legal aid would be out of a job.
In any case, how does little Johnny define criminality with drugs, a conviction for possession of one gram of pot? What about differing drug laws state to state? What about section 10 of the NSW Criminal Procedure Act, (and equivalents elsewhere) found guilty but no conviction recorded, will that trigger his nanny law?
Is he going to issue food stamps, rent certificates, petrol coupons from Centrelink? Employ an army of bureaucrats to oversee how the “convictees” buy anything?
It has to be the most hair brained idea he’s come up with since the NT intervention. Perhaps he should extend it to prostitution, another “social evil” which could trigger a repeat of this parliamentary line:
(Howard stays on as a backbencher and moves a private members Bill):
Howard: “What about my Prostitution Bill.”
Rudd: “Pay it!”
455 Diogenes. What an utterly stupid thing of Howard to say. It just reinforces in everyone’s minds that he is a sceptic on climate change.
Would you like to see political bull during the cricket, Albert?
Caroline
Maybe you’ve been lurking for weeks. If not it helps to have some background:
Economy…..SerfChoices…….Job…….Insecurity……..Poverty…… Quarantining …….VOTE LABOR.
Rattus Rattus….. USA USA USA
$weetie ….. Accounts clerk
The Mad Monk ….. Garbage Collector (Sorry guys, make sure he gets the worst job)
i’m gonna use my $100 free bet on a upset that d.blumel (alp) beats the useless A.somalay (lib) in fairfax.A huge margin to overcome but i sense a mood that the electorate have had enough of our do nothing member. That as well as the swing to lab & ruddy being a local as well it might just be time. If she wins i will have the biggest hangover since my bucks night (was only 3 weeks ago) took me a week to get over it.
378
Generic Person Says:
November 18th, 2007 at 3:37 pm
“Wage rises in and of themselves aren’t the problem, it’s wage rises from profitable industries transferred to unprofitable or less profitable industries that gets inflation out of control. That’s really the legacy of the unions.”
….
inflation is caused by excess aggregate demand. It is not caused by wages growth or union demands or businesses seeking higher prices. These things are consequences of inflation, not causes. Inflation – a rise in the general price level – can only occur if demand exceeds supply beyind the very short run.
What causes excess aggregate demand? Loose monetary policy, loose fiscal policy, external shocks….but not unions, who do have the ability to influence any of these macro factors.
BBD
‘Rudds response is to point it out as policy made in desperation and on the run. He believes the drugs problem needs addressing, but would want to make sure a plan that doesn’t put elderly at risk of increased crime as a result of increasingly desperate drug users having to turn to other means to supprt thier habbit.’
Or their hobbit.
Cricket should be an ideological free zone. Odd they didnt get sent in for another caning though
A couple of days ago on a now discontinued thread on this blog, someone raised a question as to how Bob Debus was going in his campaign in Macquarie.
I was at my local Katoomba ALP Branch meeting earlier this afternoon. The feedback there was that the vibes are very strong for Bob throughout the electorate, in the Mountains, in Lithgow, in Bathurst and even in the nominally unfriendly area around Oberon. One sour note was that around about 4 am this morning 100 or so Rudd/Debus signs between Springwood and Mt Victoria were torn down by persons unknown. Fell free to guess who were responsible.
The wicket is a flat track best to bowl last.
I see Rudd front’s up to the Press Club on Wednesday, and Howard get the incumbent’s advantage by going on Thursday.
From memory I can’t remember these from past elecitons. Any chance either of them will say anything interesting?
HH @ 461,
If Howard has said, “God prefers Liberal Party policies!”, then Elvis has left the building.
465 Grog-I think Ruddski can keep the momentum going using that “We won’t die tomorrow” gaffe for the rest of the week. Turnbull must be ready to throttle the Rodent. Combine climate change, which hasnt had much of a run, with the ongoing complaints about rorting the RPP and a clever answer to “Who would you turn gay for?” and Team Rodent wheels will keep spinning with no traction.
Re 49,
Nostradoofus Says:
Read ‘em and weep
……. the DT is making a very wise decision to reflect the views of their readership with all polls clearly stating that NSW is going to fall like a house of cards. Wouldn’t you rather have that then an editor that put his feelings above his journalisitc ethos and thus didn’t do his job ethically? I mean, I know that you probably don’t like the decision (seem to recall you are of the Liberal persuasion) but just to be fair to you, in the paper version of the DT (in case you couldn’t discern this from the website version), they give a big spread to Piers A. a few pages after the editorial and Piers is scathing of Labor as he always is and his article was bigger in length and breadth than the editorial. I think that they (if you saw the various parts of the paper for real today) are quite clearly still torn about endorsing Rudd in many parts of the hierarchy.
Has Howard announce how the Quaranteen will work? Food vouchers? Direct Payment of Rent? Has he consulted with Woolies?
Will the privacy act need to be amended? Or will Centrelink staff be increased to scan court reports?
Will compulsory Police Checks be put in place?
Or did he just lose a few more thousand votes?
Make no mistake readers!!
The drugs wedge is not about Labor, but the Greens! Looks like a lot of the respondents here have been wedged themselves, trotting out lines to “help” Rudd not get wedged on this.
It’s nothing to do with Rudd. This is firewall now, they’ve lost the House, they now just want to try and “save” the Senate from the Greens.
Don’t be fooled.
86 Observer,
Could this company – Snap Printing Dee Why – be a front for the EB?
GP – General Prickhead
Enterprise Bagining QUARANTINES wage rises from indutry to industry, sector to sector, even company to company – so you’re stupid.
Also, deflation is much more significant than inflation, in fact most people alive today on this planet have not experienced a depression. This can happen if a Government were to introduce a policy that cut actual wages, as in total take home pay – errr errr errr derrrr.
Lucky SerfChoices increases wages by 94% after all – that’s the evidence.
Grog at 308: Loved the Tip transcript. Talk about done like a kipper.
It’s easy Evan when you’ve got such great material to work with.
To quote John H*ward: “Hello!”
Wake up people! The EB and Liberals are going to run anti-drug smears against the Greens all this week. It’s their last disparate attempt to try and stop the Greens from getting the balance of power in the Senate.
I repeat this has nothing to do with ‘wedging’ Rudd or Labor. People here should know better than this!
WTF is Howard going on about now?
Apparently God likes Liberals
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,20797,22778780-953,00.html
“I’m not suggesting that God is either Liberal or Labor,” Mr Howard said.
“He is neither.
“But I am suggesting that the influence of Christianity in such policies as families, individual responsibility … personal choice and free enterprise sit very comfortably with the values of my party.”
Sadly he didn’t consider that God could be female, or that it is more likely that God doesn’t exist than that God does exist. But anyway…
Spot on John Ryan. He’s also trying to drag a few FF voters with the religous angle.
Given up on the reps as I’d read it and trying to save the arse of what’s left of their Senate ticket chances. Out of the Reps and no influence in the Senate. Can “it” get any more desperate.
ALP Ahead 55.5% – 44.5% With One Week To Go – But Marginals Are Too Mixed To Call
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4246/
John, sounds about right. Especially if theyve letterboxed the ACT with an anti-greens drugs flyer. Humphries has to go down, or they can block everything for over 6 months! And dont think they wont, the neocons are vindictive little children.
A person of genius above, can’t remember where, said Rudd should answer the Rove gay question tonight with Al Gore. This would be brilliant. It would clearly define him from the Rodent (Not going to die tomorrow) and this would be the main talking point for a few days. I hope one of his minders is listening in, perhaps Adam (who still hasn’t answered the reverse gay question).
They tried to run anti drug smears against the Greens in previous elections and I think people have gotten a bit wiser. In a large part thanks to the net and thanks to the fact that the Greens have gotten a lot of free advertising in the last year now that the climate change issue has gotten traction.
As for appealing to God, please, bring it on. It’ll be nice to see the religious nutters humiliated and shamed and written out of the public debate.
Blindoptimist 469
Dead right, and lets forget other causes of inflation: supply constraints causeed by a lazy government that had budget surpluses but still failed to invest adequately in technical training and infrastructure. There are lots of things Team Rodent has done to jack up inflation well beyond where it should have been.
In Wednesday’s speech Rudd will, amongst other things, speak about honesty in public administration and how, under Howard, standards have fallen to the level you’d expect in a third world back water. He’ll speak about eliminating tax payer funded advertising for party political purposes. He’ll raise a number of issues that are always there in the back ground irritating the average Joe Blow who now believes government business will never again be lifted to the fair and decent standards of the past.
To top it off Rudd will promise that the PMs principle home will be The Lodge in Canberra. He should go one step further and state that the the PMs residence on Sydney harbour will be opened to the public for 3 days per week (free admission) as an historic building and can then serve as a holiday camp for children in remote schools over the remainder of the week. Those schools can nominate for a three day stay (all expenses paid) for year 11 students who can use the building as a base camp for day excursions to historic Sydney locations.
On election ditties.
One for the liberals: Gun In Mouth Blues by Rollins Band
Here is dear old Henry’s thoughts on John Howard from a while ago.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qSWbySu-ZY
Sorry William, more jocularity.
Well spotted furry one
Possum – I notice the date on that link is 19 November. Talk about polling that can predict the future!
Just a headline?
I’ve seen one political ad during the cricket – for Family First. A bit surprised neither major party has touched it – I imagine quite a bit of the cricket audience would consist of people who wouldn’t normally watch commercial television for anything other than sport.
I think you’re right John Ryan – good thing the Greens have a handy report to use:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/18/2094068.htm
And also, pity that FF have run such a fantastic campaign that has brought credit to all their supporters.
ShowsOn, it’s not a good idea to wedge your own party with religious/non-religious beliefs. No one has ever been able to put odds on God’s existence. You are also talking about a religion that’s based on the Bible, a text which clearly names God as a male. Anyhow, that’s just a red herring.
Still, Howard’s got me curious: what relationship does he find between free enterprise and Christianity?
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