Thanks Mark, yes, I have somehow had a shocker and run the NSW calculator instead of the WA one.

Matthew Cole at # 13, yes, I agree with you, result likely 3-2-1, which was what I thought in the first place, until I confused myself entirely by running the NSW calculator instead, thinking I had clocked on the WA one. My excuse…Too many late nights studying for final Uni exam and reading political blog sites.

Cheers.

If the Greens can replace the two retiring senators, then they can consider themselves fortunate. Anything beyond that then we can sack the pollsters.

DLP votes of 1.00 per cent are too high, outside of Victoria and Tasmania.

Despite my lax bloggery (I consider it a website, not a blog), I get a fair bit of traffic. (600 visitors a day)

Maybe I went through some sort of quota.

What’s wrong with your web site Mr Speaker? I get a blank screen.

Considering the Liberals had a primary senate vote of 49.3% last time, I think they will still manage three quotas straight off their primary vote, ie 43%.

The danger for the Greens is that Labor’s primary vote will grow too large for them to catch and there is no Liberal excess to get them over the line.

Despite the above I think the Greens are more likely than not to win a seat.

However, provided the ALP can get much of a swing at all the danger is small and the question becomes the battle between the ALP and Greens for the 3rd left spot and the Liberals and CDP for the 3rd right position.

If the Greens get less than 5 people up at this election there will undoubtedly be a chorus from assorted pundits as to how this was a “disastrous” result for us. As evidence they will point to predictions from Malcolm Mckerras and our host that we would win 5 or 6 seats, and then try to imply that this is what the Greens themselves were saying they would get. I know this because it has happened before many times, where predictions from others become transformed into our own supposed overconfidence.

Consequently, for what it is worth I’ll put my own sense of our chances on the record – and here seems as good a place as any.

I am very confident that Bob will be re-elected (not a brave statement really). I think that in the ACT, WA and Vic we are narrow favourites. I don’t expect us to pull all of them off, but in each I think we have a slightly better than even chance. In South Australia I rate our chances as 50/50. I don’t write off our chances in either NSW or Qld, but in both cases I think the odds are substantially against us. I have gone from thinking that Andrew Wilke’s chances were a pipe dream to considering there is a remote chance he might win, but I’d emphasize the “remote”.

All up, the sort of result William has predicted for us is possible, but I think it is unlikely. If we can get three wins this time I’d be satisfied, and four would make me very happy. I’d be over the moon with six.

I doubt that the LP will suffer a 10% decline in their vote in WA…..

My most likely scenario –

LP3 (off 3 quotas)
ALP2 (off 2.x quotas)
Grn1 (off ALP preferences).

Try this with Antony Green’s very spiffy calculator –

LP – 43.1% (down 6%)
ALP – 36% (up 4%)
Green – 8.25% (up 0.2%)
FF – 0.85%
CDP – 3.1% (up 1.3%)
Dem – 2.0% (unchanged)

I predict, in other words, pretty much a status-quo situation over here, with 3 LP, 2ALP and minor parties 1, like every other election since 1990.

Those calculations refer to NSW not WA (that is the NSW Senate ticket). I also think you are overestimating the Family First vote in WA (probably their weakest state), and underestimating the CDP (WA is their 2nd strongest state).