The Fairfax broadsheets today carry an ACNielsen poll from Wentworth taken from an impressive sample of 900. It shows Labor’s George Newhouse leading Malcolm Turnbull 52-48 on two-party preferred, with primary votes of 45 per cent for Turnbull, 36 per cent for Newhouse and 17 per cent for Greens candidate Susan Jarnason. Minor party preferences favoured Labor over Liberal by 86-14, which seems a little much.
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ACNielsen: 52-48 to Labor in Wentworth
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836 Comments
Now here is great news.
86% of prefs…pfffffffft
That’s looking quite positive it must be said for Labor!
And from a reliable source.
Pity. Turnbull would have made a good future leader of the Libs.
thats what i want to hear!
on another note, as i posted inthe last thread, has anyone seen the strange ‘focus on australia’ ads?, saw two on Ch10 adel, one seemed to be endorsing workchoices and attacking unions but the second one was about a green dodo or something?!?!
As I said on the other thread, it’s a very weird poll.
A 9 point lead on primaries gets overturned on minor party preferences, which flow 86-14 to Labor! I can understand why Grattan was skeptical about this poll.
6 jimmy Yeah, I commented on that one this afternoon, probably the mining industry, coal industry and creationalists.
Richmond 2004 is something of a precedent.
Preferences split 78-22 to overturn a 45.8 to 35.6 primary lead.
Whether accurate or not the fact that we are getting polls with Labor well in the race in Wentworth at all must be a big worry for the Libs.
Haven’t seen it. If it is promoting WorkChoices it could be Exclusive Brethren. They think Unions are all run by communists.
I saw the Dodo one in Melbourne.
I’d love to see a detailed analysis of the third party preferences here.
Btw, what is the past history of whether people vote according to how to vote slips or do their own thing?
I believe today’s Australian will features the final litre of bile from Glenn Milne before election day.
I assume it will be another Costello press release.
All these negative reports on AWA’s and still Hockey wont release his figures to debunk them!
WAGES in Victoria’s retail and hospitality industries are falling well below the norm under WorkChoices, a new study shows, as workplace power swings to employers.
And another study shows many small and medium employers think WorkChoices was designed to benefit big business, with a more complex industrial relations system resulting.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/pay-survey-shows-bias-to-employer/2007/11
I saw it. Can’t find them (focus on australia foundation) on google or anything.
I for one would like to know who these jerks are ! (that is who is providing the $$)
Do we call this the revenge of the yapping minors?
It’s hard to believe, but as we’ve seen throughout this entire year, perceptions are what politics are about. It’s not good news for the conservatives, and although I’ve got mixed feelings about Turnbull (as a politician he’d make a good investment banker), I won’t feel any sympathy for him. Or maybe about as much as he felt for the poor guy he rolled to take the seat.
I’m not as quick to dismiss Labor’s chances in Wentworth as some people on here are. I think Turnbull’s not necessarily the most popular local member and I certainly don’t think much of him.
To be honest I wouldn’t be completely surprised if some of the right of the Liberal Party want Turnbull gone. I have a feeling he is extremely untrustworthy and will white-ant Costello through much of the next term to attempt to get the leadership. It would make sense for the right to white-ant Turnbull’s campaign in Wentworth… if it weren’t such a close election.
Anyhow, I think probably this seat will stay Liberal, given its history. I don’t think Labor will win it with such a low primary nor do I think the Greens will break the way the poll suggests it. Still, Turnbull to go to preferences.
DW @ 9,
That kind of makes sense in Wentworth as well. The western part of this electorate (Paddington, Darlinghurst, etc) are strong Green areas that would always preference Labor.
However, are the Greens issuing an open-ticket in Wentworth, after the pulp mill fiasco? Coz that could lower the preference flow to Labor by enough to deliver it to Turnbull…
Greens on 17% bull butter.
The Greens got 11% so magically they go up 6% what for?
That said Turnbull needs a primary of 47 to hold on, he needs just 2% to be a future leader of the Libs.
86-14 even with the greens is bull butter, they’ll fall around 70-30 to Newhouse but enough for Malcolm to hold on.
Just one more time, this poll is Bull butter especially after the row over his eligibility
Shanahan’s latest…
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22780317-5012863,00.html
Don’t buy any thing good about M.Turnbull, hes a GRUB not a moderate. He supported work choices & all the other rubbish this Government came up with. If any thing he is more a power monger than Howard because he got untold millions to get by but is he satisfied with that? NO. He just wants more power thats all. The only good that could be said for him is that he is a republican so hes not a complete DICK!
Green preferences will flow very strongly to Labor, they will poll higher than in other years. In spite of any scare campaign.
William, why is the preference split “beyond plausible limits”? They are all anti-Turnbull candidates apart from FF and CDP, who won’t poll well in Wentworth. (FF got 0.4% in 2004 and CDP haven’t contested it for years.) I find the preference split entirely plausible.
If I was a betting man, Id say the Gunns mill decision will see Turnbull narrowly lose the seat. Even though Newhouse is a pillock.
And rightly so – there’s no economy worth a pinch of sh*t without environmental sustainability. I suspect voters will pick Turnbull to illustrate that major paradigm shift to the major parties.
Aussieguru, exactly.
Glen you just don’t get it. No 1 issue is what we’re not allowed to mention. The Liberals are on another planet. So they lose.
Adam, care to enlighten us about how you see the preferences going?
You might be right, Adam. Can anyone point to a real-world example of preferences splitting this widely?
Turnbull is getting all of that, and 1% from the Greens.
Newhouse has got a 4% lead though. Even if Turnbull gets 4% from the Greens (24%) Newhouse could still probably win.
Turnbull should be pleading with Green voters to give him their second preferences.
I remain curious.
What was it about Newhouse not appearing on, for one Skye, after the strange case of the letter without a stamp?
Not, of course, that Wentworth should fall to any but Labor.
Turnbull will be returned without doubt.
Newhouse is a dunce.
The attack on Newhouse will work in his favour.
Both Wentworth and Bennelong are going.
No 34
How? He’s a bloody coward.
No 35
Nope. Not a chance.
You’re going to have to do a bit better than that from now on, GP.
Sorry GP,like it or not,the swing is on and it will take the big and the small,equally.Both Turnbull and Howard are gone.
and yet more scandalous behavior involving Johnny and his favorite far-right cult:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/pmbrethren-letters-held-until-after-poll/2007/11/18/1195321608622.html
Couldn’t agree more Adam. The closet election with any environmental effect was the Franklin Dam. I can’t remember how the preferences went then. This time the issue is much bigger. Hence every time it starts up here William has to throw cold water on everyone.
I have to admit that it’s pretty amazing (and a tad surreal) that we’re all sitting here less than a week out from an election and we’re seriously contemplating Wentworth falling to Labor.
Who would have thought this (or even imagined this) a year ago? The fact that we’re concerned about a 53-47 poll in favour of Labor in Eden-Monaro highlights how much our expectations have changed over the past year.
All I’m saying is – a win is a win, whether by 1 seat or by 30. We shouldn’t be disappointed if Rudd “only” wins by a handful…
Just like to point out that the Liberals stink with the gay community:
http://www.ssonet.com.au/display.asp?ArticleID=7355
http://www.ssonet.com.au/display.asp?ArticleID=7365
Shanahan just doesn’t get it. Both sides have a vested interest in saying the election will be close. As if any Labor insider is going Dennis with valid information, given his penchant for the Liberal Party.
BHP-B C.O.O. dead.
Anyone want to offload their shares to me?
I live next to Wentworth. While I think Turnbull will scrape in, I think the vast majority of minor party preferences will go to Labor. 86-14 would sound implausible anywhere else in the country, excepting this part of dear old Syd. We’re weird over here.
If you look carefully you will see Howard, Costello, Toombull & his mates in this video. Its their DESTINY.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=pCWw6W5NEa8
That should read “As if any Labor insider is going to supply Dennis with valid information, given his penchant for the Liberal Party.”
GP,
I bet you are going to be the fun of the party on Saturday night.
But not implausable limits William. Nobodys on the verandah yet, but I think Taverner is a hint that the fetching has kicked in, 3 irons and cricket bats, sucking in the follow through. It feels good apparently. 5 more sleeps.
Swing Lowe,I feel the same,but the swing will be big and there’s really little reason in the end why it won’t sweep both Turnbull and Howard away in NSW.I believe it’s lapping around Costello’s feet as well with a week to go.
No 49
What a joy it will be on Saturday evening, when I will no longer have to argue with petulant school children; John Howard securing a fifth term in office with the largest majority in Australian history.
Election Day checklist:
1. Baseball bat
2. John Howard pinata
Oh very well since its not obvious to some
1. Attacking Newhouse gives him more recognition.
2. People don’t like personal attacks.
52 ROFL!!!!!!!!!
What a joy it will be on Saturday evening, when all the Liberal staffers find themselves out of a job; John Howard losing by the largest majority in Australian history, signalling the complete destruction of the Liberal party.
I’ve toned down the “beyond plausible limits” line.
GP, do you honestly believe that? You think they’re going to do better than Fraser in ‘75?
Or is that just you with your inate sense of humour.
Labor got 83% of Green prefs in Sydney in 2004, and that the first seat I looked at. This is a very polarised contest. Everyone who supports Turnbull will vote for him directly. Everyone else opposes him and will preference accordingly.
52 Generic Person You’ve actually got a sense of humour.
“52
Generic Person Says:
November 19th, 2007 at 12:54 am
No 49
What a joy it will be on Saturday evening, when I will no longer have to argue with petulant school children; John Howard securing a fifth term in office with the largest majority in Australian history.”
Speaking of school children, didn’t your English teacher ever tell you (as mine did) that there was no literary device more cliched and tiresome than that which ended a scary story with the words: “…and then I woke up”.
So who is making you argue with anyone? Have you been commissioned to go on a crusade and try to win every argument on this blog?
GP 52 –
You have problems reading numbers don’t you…lol
How about Geography? Did you know that DeNial is a river in Egypt?
Greens getting cashed up.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/donations-to-greens-up-500-in-victoria/2007/11/18/1195321608640.html
No 56
Get your own lines asanque, you plagiarist.
No 58
Bit of both.
Now if they ran this truthfull 22 second ad it would certainly be all over for Howard:
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=0eZY5cSbi1Y
No 61
I was 1st in English for two years. I was teaching them.
Bennelong went a long time ago – as soon as Maxine led the first poll it was history for Howard, they didn’t even need to think about it, they jumped straight to her. And now the Koreans have left him too.
Edon-Monaro has been long gone too, beyond repair.
Wentworth will be a cliff-hanger but it looks best for Newhouse – just needs to get 50.1% so some lee-way there if the preferences hold out like that.
63 John Hunt Is A Coward Hey, I copyrighted that joke when I used it on Glen ages ago.
But you can use it.
“67
Generic Person Says:
November 19th, 2007 at 1:01 am
No 61
I was 1st in English for two years. I was teaching them.”
For two years? That would have been when you repeated first grade, yes?
Really, GP.
What about getting a real job, like the rest of us?
Red Wombat… I reckon a fair chunk of that money would be flowing in from the unions.
Its a bad year for trolls.
No 63
I will not dwell on infantile jokes. It’s a waste of my precious time.
One other point. The Liberal attack ads on the Greens are so far wide of the mark they are actually pushing people toward the Greens.
This is especially true in Sydney because its one of those places where its unavoidable that you have to talk to 20 people a day. The scare ads will be discussed and will be judged as rubbish, or worse.
Why would any Labor strategist in the final week of an election campaign say to a reporter “Yeah we are gonna romp it in!”
Even if their internal polling was saying they were going to win 50 seats they would be telling reporters “this will be close”.
Why would you what to give any reporter any sign that you think the campaign has already been won?
Shanahan’s reliance on insider gossip demonstrates his lack of understanding of how election campaigns actually work.
the liberal infighting has already begun
very bitchy
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22779967-5001021,00.html
This counts as dwelling.
No 72
I assume your definition of a job is linining up in the centrelink queue. Compassion and all.
#73
You are probably right…….I saw a union thug in one of those koala suits collecting at Flinders Street Station the other day
No 71
Let me know when you proceed past the 1st grade.
Spot the hypocrite
Generic Person:
and
Well thats a 4.5% swing, which given newspoll marg ave 6.5%, and ave marg of Newspoll/galaxy/morgan for NSW is 7.2%, would imply Turnbull is doing 2- 2.7% better than the state wide marg seat swing, sound about right, even good candidates struggle to do more than 3% deviation from the mean. I agree greens primary is probably too high, also Bill there are plenty of real life examples of strong flows 80:20 (especially with greens to ALP), most of them are former ALP loopy left
75 Generic Person I haven’t read anything of yours that is not infantile.
Seriously you guys quit it stop this personal abuse, why can’t we just focus on politics and not childish name calling VoterBoy of Over the Water?
Interesting newspiece in the Hun.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22780798-661,00.html
Malcolm Turnbull blasted by Cabinet
CABINET colleagues have turned on Malcolm Turnbull, accusing him of bagging the Prime Minister and talking up his own leadership ambitions.
“Malcolm’s for Malcolm,” one Cabinet member said.
Another minister summed up a widespread view of Mr Turnbull: “His ambition exceeds the amount of support he’s got, by a long way.”
The Buzz Ding ad has been adulterated and, much funnier.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=W7-2sOlj-ZQ
Gee the level of discussion is so high tonight.
I am sorry Chris B, but I refuse to apologise.
As we had proof tonight Labor jokes will always be funnier than Liberal jokes.
They don’t get humour, irony, sarcasm or Rove.
There is way too much crap on this thread, so I’m going to start deleting comments at whim. No correspondence about my decisions will be entered into.
Back to the topic.
Looks like Newhouse is in front.
I can only await the next poll, assuming there is one, in Boothby.
All thumbs are up, for Nicole. With the voters I know.
Too right, William. 90.
Crikey, on Nicole Cornes, my only concern is that people have already made up their minds on her. When my Mum saw her on tv one day she started literally screaming “Oh not this brain-dead idiot”. She’s a die-hard Howard Hater too.
oh.. thank you kina
LTEP:
If William continually chooses not to moderate Generic Person, then that is the quality of the debate that will pervade these threads.
I leave it to William’s discretion.
Nicole is going to get up
This polls backs up my contention that the ALP is on its way to a 100+ landslide.
Kina,
While watching that clip the real one came on TV it was VERY surreal the dings and buzzes all in sync
My dad went to school with Turnbull and says he was only ever interested in money and power, even when he was in high school. For my dad (who is a restrauranteur and small business owner from a wealthy white collar north sydney background who still votes progressive) to describe someone as a ‘horrible person with no morals’ is not a good testament to their character.
Even if he loses Wentworth, he’ll be able to parachute himself into a safe seat at a by-election when one of the older Liberal MPs in a safe seat gets fed up with opposition and retires. He’ll have his day as opposition leader, and we can all hope that’s as far as his ambition goes, for the good of the country.
The problem with Turnbull losing his seat is that there’ll be very little opposition to Costello being the Leader of the Opposition and he is not electable, so the Libs are looking at a minimum of two or three terms out of office. The talent cupboard on the Liberal side will be very bare.
87 to 102
has anyone seen Nicoles posters have all developed a little red nose
There’s absolutely no evidence Cornes will be elected. To ignore that Advertiser poll which showed no swing and invent your own swing is just what people get frustrated about when Steven Kaye does it.
Regarding Wentworth, there are certain suburbs that are completely dyed in the wool Liberal, and new suburbs that are Labor intensive. For the rest, it’s true that a lot of the people of Darlinghurst and Woolloomoolo and bits of Paddo are either yuppie gays, hetero inner city life-seekers or down and out crackheads and therefore vote accordingly. (None of whom would vote Liberal anyway.) However, there’s a massive great hospital precinct that has just landed in the middle of it, and many of those nurses and hospital registrars live in the vicinity and work at St Vincents by choice. Only the odd one will be voting Lib. I still think Turnbull will win, but the place has changed so much, and people are so much more willing to vote for minor parties, that this one is much tighter than many suspect.
It will be very interesting to see what happens in the next couple of elections in Wentworth, my seat of Sydney and our neighbours in Grayndler. Labor candidates like Tanya Plibersek will hold on, but the Anthony Albaneses of this world had better watch out. As had Malcolm Turnbull next time around.
No 95
I thank William for his commitment to this blog.
In response to asanque, the quality of the debate is very much determined by one’s willingness to digress from party lines. Given that the majority of posters here are unlikely or unwilling to do so, I see no reason why I should be banned or stringently moderated for comments that are largely harmless.
Troubles in the mother-ship
“Malcolm’s for Malcolm,” one of his Cabinet colleagues said.
Another minister summed up a widespread view of Mr Turnbull: “His ambition exceeds the amount of support he’s got, by a long way.”
“He is too blatantly ambitious and unnecessarily gets people offside,” the figure said.
“He has been heard plenty of times bagging Howard out. His view is, ‘Get Costello out of the way, get Howard out of the way – and I am going to run the show’.”
A minutes silence!
Requiem for Tony Abbott
by G Milne
The political passing of that great unfrocked mad monk:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22779539-7583,00.html
…truly the most amazing bit of grovelling I’ve read in a very long time. Milne is a revolting groveller, writing this tosh.
Abbott is a twisted, agro, confused but belligerent catholic bovver boy, and deserves the political oblivion he is about to recieve.
Here endeth the lesson Tony!
LTEP at 93.
I am totally not interested.
Nicole is fine. Read previous threads.
I wouldn’t imagine this helps the LNP either
THE states could end up with a bill of between $377.5 million and $1.2 billion to pay for the Coalition’s 7550 new local hospital board members.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22779674-5001021,00.html
102 the ave swing for the 3 marg seat polls in sa is 6.4%, 2 of the 3 have her up, as does our polling, southcotts a bigger dud than cornes, she get there
THey run the REALLY big polls on the Terrorgraph site.
From this story.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22780220-5001021,00.html?id=#vote-now-form
102 Lose the election please. You keep saying you’re a Labor supporter. Yet you keep posting Liberal stuff.
That includes you.
He is in the pessimistic faction. That includes all the left and 85% of the right.
No 113
Thank you dearly for that obvious deduction.
Chris B, how is posting that all the polls have suggest the Libs to retain Boothby ‘Liberal stuff’. It’s just neutral.
Similarly, my mum is just one voter. You can extrapolate anything you like from that. I’d expect a lot of older women would feel the same way. It certainly comes across in the polling that says women prefer Southcott 52 to 27 in Boothby.
A Tune for the Libs on Election night as they drown their sorrows.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=QCNhAU4zGrA
No more crap about LTEP being a Liberal supporter either.
This is the most presidential election I can ever remember.
Using that logic I reckon that local candidacy will mean less in this election than in any other.
The old saying about ‘when the swing is on the swing is on’ will hold very true for this election.
There will be very few local candidacy ‘holds’ for the Coalition. The swing of 7-8% will basically be a wipeout of the seats in its path.
The left are just upset because they bagged her so badly with the local media- sorry guys shes going to get up
It was induction.
Nice to see that requiem for Abbott from Milne. Pity that Milne never mentioned that Abbott’s downfall was due to him being such an absolute sh#t.
Bill Leak, genius!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/imagedata/0,,5756670,00.jpg
121, that was pretty stunning coming from Milne.
GP was that you putting little red noses on Nicoles posters
Ah the people of Boothby have tough choice don’t they, a ding bat and the best presenter of dorothy dixers in the nation. I’d vote for the latter but im a tory what would i know lol!
Totaly agree S O # 122.
Milne is right about Abbott being unhappy. He’s become a square peg in a round hole and it would probably be best for him and his family if he got out of politics. His best days are behind him.
Can we go back to Wentworth?
Not really, mad cow. Milne’s editor won’t allow him to print it next week because it will be old news. Everyone else will be sniggering.
Note that responses to deleted comments sometimes get deleted because they cease to make sense afterwards.
I bought my friend an 8 X 12 of this one for her birthday:
http://images.newsphotos.com.au/images5/Lores/25341898.jpg
It’s a piss take of the Pauline Hanson assassination video where she said “Austrayans, if you are watching this video it means I’ve been murdered”
It was actually just something she did to get publicity for her election campaign.
No 128
Newhouse will lose. It’s as simple as that. On a talent-for-talent comaprison, it is thoroughly clear that Turnbull is the far superior candidate.
GP, just out of interest… are there any Labor candidates more talented than their Liberal opponents?
Back to Wentworth, that’s a 4.5% swing, which given newspoll marg ave 6.5%, and ave marg of Newspoll/galaxy/morgan for NSW is 7.2%, would imply Turnbull is doing 2- 2.7% better than the state wide marg seat swing, sound about right, even good candidates struggle to do more than 3% deviation from the mean. I agree greens primary is probably too high, also Bill there are plenty of real life examples of strong flows 80:20 (especially with greens to ALP), most of them are former ALP loopy left
Shows On,
Thanks for both those comics. They were both very funny.
Which is why it will be really, really funny when Newhouse wins!
LTEP well definitely not Wayne Swan that is for sure lol!
Maybe Julie Owens vs Liberal Unions i dunno it aint easy is it lol?
Milne-Abbott
Pretty much right.
Personally it’s good to see the old bible-belter get hoist by his own petard.
Yes politics is not a merit system, only occassionally moderated by it (up to #% or so)
It’s an election, not a TV singing or dancing show.
Kirribilli @ 106:
By the various gods, am I getting bored of the phrase “conviction politician”.
A pox on all their houses! As the joke goes: “How can you tell when a politician is lying? Their lips are moving.”
What is Milne going on about? Their only conviction, is that they should be in power, and not the other guys.
No 133
Anyone who has had real world experience outside of politics and unions is worthy of consideration.
The problem of course, for the ALP, most of the party is enshrined and derived from unions
Glen Says:
November 19th, 2007 at 1:26 am
‘Ah the people of Boothby have tough choice don’t they, a ding bat and the best presenter of dorothy dixers in the nation. I’d vote for the latter but im a tory what would i know lol!’
Said, Glen, said.
What do you know? You said it all.
Wentworth is a world apart. I wouldn’t put any money on any outcome whatsoever. It’s a sideshow, but will be fun watching.
Actually it doesn’t matter who is smarter, when the swing is on the tidal wave doesn’t stop to see who the better candidate is.
Paul k that’s exactly what Channel 7 wants their coverage to be lol and its why i wont be watching them!
Regarding Wentworth, Turnbull and co were all over the place this weekend, with him and Lucy swanning around Sculpture by the Sea. As to minor party pref’s not flowing at 86:14 – I’ve seen Green pref’s flow to the ALP at over 90% on a number of occassions, and there’s no reason to think that in the eastern suburbs this couldn’t occur again. The places were that doesn’t tend to occur is in rural/Lib heartland seats – then it might venture all the way down to 65%. And there will be an HTV directing to Newhouse over Turnbull. Of course, the other issue will be whether Coulton, Pierce or Ecuyer poll anything and what will their pref’s do (will Pierce the Democrat do a split-ticket??).
As to down here in Kingsford Smith, its all a bit of a yawn. Very few Garrett coreflutes, although there’s been a bit of a stoush in the local rag between Garrett & Mahony over the Orica site (”Garrett gets toxic at waste criticism” with a pic of the huge Garrett doll from the Walk against Warming rally where he got boo’ed). Beinke has some coreflutes up in one patch but thats it – one thing in the mail form the Libs, a second from Garrett this week. Yawn…oh, and 2500 through prepoll last week, so I expect maybe 6000 by next Saturday – will this effect election night results!?!
Chris B, that’s not really true. If a candidate is high profile and disliked it could make the world of difference. In any case, it’d be showing up in the polling if Cornes was a shoe-in in Boothy. She’s not.
So you don’t know what the word Labor means…. oh well… I guess you haven’t done I.R. law yet.
Glen,
I’ll be channel surfing on the night. But I suspect Channel Two will get most of my attention. Do you think Howard will concede first, or will he wait for Rudd to claim victory?
This reminds me. I saw a promo for the Channel 9 election coverage.
They said they would have results before the votes start being counted. This strongly suggests they will be doing extensive exit polling.
As to the accuracy of exit polls in Australian elections, I have no idea. People are very secretive in Australia about their political allegiances, so I doubt they will be that accurate.
Can I just point out the elephant in the room…
Of all the predictions I have seen, the one seat that stands out is Wentworth.
When I first saw Wentworth I thought hey, 2.5%. Gone.
But ever since I’ve seen most people, even a lot of die hard labor supporters here predicting Wentworth to hold.
I just don’t get it. With a national swing of ~7%, and grouped-marginal polls that include Wentworth coming out as ~4.5% (or better), it doesn’t make arithmetical sense.
Even taking into account the factors that do seem to have merit, I just can’t help but feel that there is so much sentiment tied up in the ‘never fallen to Labor’ bit, that people just don’t want to believe it could fall.
.. more of this if there is any interesting response.
I remember it happening in a by election Labor should have won, I think it was a state election. But other than that it doesn’t usually happen.
I predict a Bennelong poll will be published sometime before the week is out. Very close to the end of the week and possibly on election morning. It’s too good a story to miss out on.
Any chances of a North Sydney poll too?
Howard will concede first, Rudd will wait for it
Hockey will survive on ten but it will be fun to watch the beads of sweat
153 Chris B that was a long time ago.
I hope so. If McKew is in front by 3 or 4, then it will be the final nail.
I think your right re the Howard poll, they will want to shock them back into not knocking off the PM
paul k
Howard is a man of tradition and if he loses he’ll go first, but he won’t blubber like Fraser, he’ll be teary eyed but he wont out and out blubber like ‘no pants’.
Rudd will have a boring concession speech.
I wonder if both camps make both speeches for winning and losing would be great to read them both for each side.
I Think your right Glen, except you wont get to hear Rudd concession speech til the next election
ShowsOn, Bennelong polls are great. Every time doubt is cast over whether Howard will be back at all the more nails in the Liberal coffin as a whole.
160 Glen Maybe he could make a Lazarus with a quadruple bypass speech.
Glen,
They always have two speeches ready just in case. Howard is a professional who has tasted defeat many times before so I expect he’ll give a good concession speech about how we’re all Australians first and Liberals or Laborites second.
Yep. Labor should pay for one to be done, but only release it if McKew is in front
Chris sometimes you have to stop the cardiac massage and declared the guy dead
More bad news for Howard re Health.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22781714-5005361,00.html
152
mad cow
re Wentworth, it has nothing to do with arithmetic over there in God’s own. The electorate is just too weird to categorise. There are more royal blue suburbs than there are dark red suburbs, and then there are major pockets of the deepest green, but don’t try telling anyone how to vote. From my completely unscientific viewpoint, it is the pockets of green who will make the difference. Will it be enough? Probably not.
166 I C Moore Its only a flesh wound.
What would be the best way for Rudd to kick along the story that the Liberals have already started attacking each other?
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22779967-5001021,00.html
Maybe during a press conference Rudd should just say that he thinks Turnbull would be a better prime minister than Costello.
152 mad cow
‘Can I just point out the elephant in the room…’
Izzitanelefant?
Or truncated?
What’s the dismal?
It’s probably any one’s toss.
It is, it really is. To quote, someone I would rather not.
And that is a considered response.
I hope it is a landslide to Labor simply so Shanahan looks like a f’ing idiot.
Apart from that, 76 to Labor would be fine.
“Howard is a man of tradition and if he loses he’ll go first, but he won’t blubber like Fraser, he’ll be teary eyed but he wont out and out blubber like ‘no pants’.”
There’ll be tears, snot and bile for miles ..
You guys keep applying the paddles but he keeps flat-lining, I’m prepared to call the time of death as last december when you sent all the Howard battlers their welfare to work letters and we finally picked Rudd
Crikey, can you clue me in on that one?
After dinner Glen & Tony go
‘passing into the later night wrestling with some of the bigger questions of the universe.’
Don’t follow the with bit.
We should start to look at which Liberals may be left to lead, is Higgins really that safe?
I C Moore, apparantly Costello is a popular local member. I think people expecting a Labor win in Higgins will be sorely disappointed.
No 177
Yes, it will have an increased margin.
177 I C Moore No its not safe, but that depends on which poll you believe.
I C Moore
This Saturday should see the final stake thru the heart and won’t get up again.
The more reliable polls seem to give him a chance of being knocked off. EG ACNeilson
At least Brendan Nelson can say he holds his seat by more than 15% lol!
I didnt say we would win Higgins only that we should start asking about it, Paul K dont worry I’ll have my garlic and cross and ring of salt so he soul cant escape
And by the way he lives at my grand parents old address. I still have a picture of my sister sitting in his backyard.
Yes I have heard Brandan is a keen contender, with no Turnbull, Howard and Downer wanting to be SA premier and costello in shock perhaps he’d be the go
Gee, you are an ask, mad cow.
Thinking.
No 186
Having Nelson as leader would be political suicide.
It’s a contest between Costello, Turnbull and Abbott.
Turnbull wont be there, Abbott is too accident prone and Costello hasnt got the ticker, and besides everyone hates him now havent you read the polls
Maybe the mohawk will attract younger grunge voters lol!
Still he could be the shit kicker for the next election should we lose this one and Deputy Dawg doesnt take the job. So that Julie Bishop and or Malcolm Turnbull get more experience to a position to take over from a Nelson and Abbott/Brough show.
188 Generic Person But you can’t elect someone Opposition Leader if they are not in parliament.
Crikey, I hope that wasn’t a typo
I wouldnt count on Brough being there either
Anyone noticed that some of the things the Libs say about Turnbull are similar to the abuse Latham served up to Rudd?
I C Moore, you know this question gets raised over and over on this blog, and I can’t see why the Liberal leadership is all that interesting.
The reality is that in 10 or so years the Liberal leader won’t be anyone we’ve heard of now.
Postings 177 & 178 heres the answer & with that add Green preferences!
George Says:
November 18th, 2007 at 11:32 pm
Hi Aussieguru01.
I live near Fawkner park, in the block that encompasses Punt/Commercial/Chappel/Toorak st/roads. We have received ONE letter from Cossie, and nothing else at all. We received something from Labor a while back.
I have been speaking to a lot of people who live in Higgins. From neighbours, friends/mums at school our boy goes to, people I work with, also many traders throughout some of the major shopping strips. The people I interact with mostly are professionals and parents of young children. I have not met anyone who is going to vote Liberal (at least no onw who will admit it). And some are Liberal voters, who are in general embarrased as to the kind of politics the Libs have subscribed to over the past few years, and are now interested in Rudd. Some will be putting in a donkey vote as they can’t bring themselves to vote for Labor.
I have come across many people who feel they want to get involved with helping to get rid of the Libs this time around. Like myself; I have voted for Labor in the past, but have never felt compelled to get out there and help. Partly because I am in a safe Lib seat. There is evidence that the swing here will be as large a 5-6% and hence a real chance of Costello losing his seat.
Time for bed. Goodnight all.
Yes Jenny, and it also says something about the spin put on Lathan by the press.
Glen,
Still burning for Julie I see.
Jenny they were probaly right both times, good point MC I’m sure the liberals best must be to come
Okay, mad cow.
I reviewed your statement, my response, your response.
Forgive me, but it all seems very clear.
On the other hand?
Aussieguru, it makes you wonder about safe seats doesn’t it. Sometimes they tend to remain safe by the circular logic that if they are safe then they aren’t worth campaigning over
ditto time for beddy byes for all good comentators, I need to look good for radio
And no, mad cow, it was not a typo.
Your name, though, I could understand may make you feel a little sensitive.
My final election commentary is available here
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/guide7.shtml
That’s all from me for this campaign. I will be very busy all this coming week in the RW, since I am trying to be both a participant and a commentator. I will drop by here occasionally but I probably won’t have much to say. Good night and happy blogging.
Here’s the latest from Kudelka. Happy dreams:
http://www.101usesforajohnhoward.com/2007/11/18/98-chicken-little/
Julie be still my beating heart lol!.
Paul k i don’t see anything wrong with a female leading the Liberal Party so long as she gets there on her merits and if Julie did there would be no question of this.
My contenders if we are thrown out:
Costello – if he wants it, it’s his
and maybe have an outside chance in the future
Turnbull – would be a punt but u never know
Brough – fight Queenslander with Queenslander (providing he’s in Parliament)
Bishop – she’ll have a shot at the deputy’s position
Too right Mad Cow & Goodnight & thanks Adam.
Liberal Party, Glen?
Party’s over.
Glen,
Neither do I but I don’t think it will happen. Also I don’t think Julie will want to wait around too long in opposition. I doubt she’ll be around for 2010.
i hope not crikey, but we’ll no for sure on saturday night.
Good night all!
Dont worry Glen there will still be a Liberal party or at least a number of fiefdoms as is the liberal tradition in opposition
Howard will be in a sulk, he will blame somebody or something. It wont be his fault.
‘know’ Glen, dear.
Not on Saturday night. That will no doubt come later but defeated PMs from both sides never blame themselves.
Jonatan Kelu is a libertarian candidate for Wentworth, representing the LDP (Liberty and Democracy party).
Vote for a small ‘l’ liberal in Wentworth!
http://www.kelu.net
superficially attractive, but richly flawed..
mad que?
oh.. I was commenting on the LDP Crikey.
I was only mucking around, mad cow.
I must go to bed, catcha you soon.
Sleep well.
1 week to go:
Next Saturday, callo callay
Coalition 60 majority!
Went out to Longman to see Captain Brough off yesterday, Brough is looking very nervous. While he did mention ‘Lungfish in the Mary River’ he avoided any reference to how the Bribie Island Nuclear Power plant was shaping up. I’d say it will be a tight contest on Saturday night in Longman.
William prepares for battle.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDaB-NNyM8o
This may have been said already but if that is the result on the day Turnbull has it by a landslide. The green vote has gone up because people cant vote for Newhouse and know it. They know if they do it will cause a bi-election. So they are voting Green first because they don’t want to vote Liberal but are then going to give their prefernces to Turnbull.
It’s hard to see how you can get 45% of the primary vote and loose your seat.
I think Malcolm will be safe.
Re 9,
David Walsh Says:
If this is true and Turnbull has 45% of the primary vote, what does that say about who those 45% are preferencing
Re 20,
Swing Lowe Says:
No, only in Tassie. All other lower house seats are being preferenced to Labor
Re S @ 225
See Richmond at the ‘04 election:
http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-12246-145.htm
Primaries:
Lib: 45.79
ALP: 35.60
Greens: 12.37
FF: 2.06
Dem:1.16
The rest: 3.02
2PP: 51.68/48.32
Which, if rounded to the nearest whole number would be 52/48.
Is this going to happen in Wentworth? I don’t think so… but it’s possible.
Re 53,
asanque Says:
Did you win the Ebay auction?
To be frank, I’m not really sure what the attraction of Turnbull is.
Turnbull seems to be little more to be a nasty opportunistic spiv.
Further, he seems to have been infected with that slightly mad look that way too many Liberal elements have.
You know, that cold lizard look about the eyes that Alston had, Nelson has and even Pyne seem to have come down with.
Nought more than another cold-eyed spiv, I’m afraid.
Costello for PM in 2023!
The more the libs go the personal attacks the higher labor’s vote goes.
Every ad and attack that the libs go personal on just reminds and reinforces for the voters the negatives of the liberal party.
The more worried the libs are about seats the more personal they get in that seat.
I thought Turnball would get back in but I think he is gone now, if the libs can only concentrate on sniping at their opponent it leaves the impression that they can’t defend Howards past, present and future policies.
The libs have gone personal on Cornes, implying she is a blonde bimbo, Bailey and McKew “celebrity” candidates and Kelly, Nazi guard as well as labor soft on drugs.
Last time the libs went personal big time they lost big time, they may not have to worry about Turnball, Brough, Pyne and Costello et al contesting the vacant leadership next sunday. The voters may make it easy for them.
Mad Cow at 202:
That’s exactly my logic for North Sydney. One of the reasons it’s so safe is that the ALP have not ever made a real play for the seat.
Re 193,
I C Moore Says:
If Brough and Abbott both fall, I will have turned $40 into $281
The betting markets are still closed for Wentworth, do people think they reopen before Sat?
DT Headline: “LIBS AT WAR”
Suddenly the DT is my favourite paper too.
Samuel K @ 235. Is that the front page headline?
Yes Triffid. I saw it today.
The front of the Canberra times was
“Nairn slashes Labor’s lead”
Also on Eden-Monaro… the Queanbeyan Age has a nice puff piece on Nairn on its front cover this week. This is the second time during the campaign that I’ve seen glowing coverage of Nairn in that paper, the first being a horde of Queanbeyan residents telling the paper why they’re sticking with Nairn and the Libs… the short of it… we love WorkChoices!
Also, driving past Nairn’s campaign office I noticed someone had placed a sticker over the picture of Nairn (on his mouth) that said “No Gary No! This is Kelly country”
Yep, if you have a look on the RHS about half way down of their website, they show an image of the front page.
I have a feeling that a lot of the voters will preference the Greens first for a protest vote and then Turnbull as second. So once its all distributed he will be pretty safe.
Just because there is a preference deal with the Greens and the ALP doesn’t mean the voters will follow it.
I noticed in the SMH article that “with preferences distributed as per 2004 Newhouse still wins” – or words to that effect.
Koala, that’s a possibility, but not a given. The best we can say is the seat is doubtful, but a good chance of staying Liberal. Any more is fanciful.
Arbie Jay 231
The personal tactics can backfire in more ways than one. In Sturt my wife found the personal letter mailed out from Carolyn Pyne patronising and offensive, and she is not political. From yesterday’s thread every other woman who posted here felt the same. A similar tactic in Wentworth might go dowmn like a lead baloon. (Wentworth is another seat with a lot of well educated working women who don’t like being told what to do by a home housewife who thinks that the most important thing in life is the kids and supporting their husband’s career).
Koala,
The point is, the preference allocation was based on the results of this poll. With a 900 sample, the Green vote was over 100 respondants, so they should have been able to determine a reliable preference flow. The whole thign is still within the MoE, but the best case outcome from this poll is that Wentworth is 50/50, with Turnbull at serious risk. That is a terrible outcome for the Libs, if other seats follow suit.
Mad Cow (Bovis Insanis) & Rates Analyst
The safe seat idea is very true. A lot of poor performs hide in their safe seats. Unfortunately it comes down to money, a hard campaign in a safe seat is months of full time work, volunteers for the work hard to come by, and the expense almost prohibitive. But most of the poor performers must be easy targets.
244
Well, I can assure you that Bailey has both volunteers and money.
Hockey is not a terrible performer, but not one of the best either.
I asked if Rudd was coming to Bennelong this week and “he may even be closer to home than that”.
There’s no reason why Labor can’t win Wentworth, based on the current polling.
I think too many of you are spooked by Turnball. Moneybags Malcolm isn’t liked in the Paddington/Kings Cross end of the electorate.
Rates Analyst: a mate of mine lives in North Sydney. He thinks Mike Bailey will get a 5% swing in the seat.
If there is one thing that consistently frustrates me it is the inability of some of the people on this site and in the MSM to ‘get’ the whole Green thing. They will be the second story of this election. People are always underestimating the Green vote, dismissing it as a mistake or making bizarre comments about the flow of Preferences. Greens preferences are TIGHT, the Greens voter is the Highest Educated and most committed(Rusted on) demographic. They act as a great rock for the ALP and have transformed State and now federal politics, Wake up people the Greens get 30% as many votes as the libs, and I’ll make one point for about the 10th time here. The green vote has gone UP in every election, bar one, at state and federal level, for the last ten years.
Wasn’t the Wentworth poll conducted mostly before the Newhouse scandal last week? Let’s face it. Newhouse had a bad week. His candidacy was questioned and he failed to show at a couple of prominent local debates. If that’s not been factored in, there’s a bit of a swing to take into account there.
What price a returned Turnbull pulling the plug on the libs and becoming an independent? He may even turn to the good side.
Speaking of silly tactics, I saw a comment on the “Wall to Wall Labor” nonsense near the end of another thread. Can someone publically laugh at this please?
First, it is constitutionally wrong – State governments cannot do squat to stop the Commonwealth, as we have all known since the Franklin Dam High Court decision. There is only one brake on Federal executive power, and that is the Senate. Howard currently has the Senate in his pocket, thanks to the Field-mouse, and so we got WorkChoices, passed with hardly an amendment made to a bill written in conjunction with a group of Corporate lawyers (Freehills I am told).
Second, it is laughable in terms of human nature and politics. Just because State and Federal governments come from the same party, it doesn’t stop them arguing. Anyone who remembers the annual PM – Premiers meetings in the past knows that, whether it was Hawke versus Wran, Keating versus Goss, or Costello versus Court, there were always fights and disaggrements once it got down to the nitty-gritty of splitting up the cash. Suggesting it will be one big conspiracy is laughable. Labor couldn’t agree on a conspiracy between the factions within a single State branch.
Socrates… to be fair to Steve Fielding… he didn’t support WorkChoices and is actually quite strongly against it.
However, he has assisted the Coalition in other areas when needed (eg. when Joyce or Humphries crossed the floor once or twice). I assume this is in exchange for the Coalition agreeing to refer all Family First bills to committees for inquiries… which generates a level of publicity.
HH:
He’s suggesting a LOWER swing than the state average? Really?
Everything points to a higher swing. (A safe liberal seat, a serious challenger for the first time in a while, an encumbent with some serioues personal baggage.)
I live in the electorate too and I’m suggesting a 10-12% swing.
It’s amazing how many bloggers say ‘loose’ when they mean ‘lose’. Playing fast and loose with the English language.
Rates Analyst: I’ll bow to your greater wisdom! I think my buddy is sceptical that enough Liberals will take the plunge and vote Labor for the first time in their lives, but who knows? It seems a number of shocking things will happen on Nov 24 that the pundits haven’t predicted.
Smirky being taken to the wire in Higgins would be amazing!
Bill Leak’s cartoon in todays Oz is a classic! ‘Howard’s experienced front bench’.
254 [Smirky being taken to the wire in Higgins would be amazing!]
Smirkey being beaten at the wire just desserts for an anti worker life.
I made the point a while ago that any argument which says “X is unprecedented and so won’t happen this election” can be immediately and fatally rebutted with the observation:
“It is unprecedented for the opposition to go into the election on a 54% 2pp”.
Ergo, some freaky things are going to happen.
Higgins, North Sydney et al will provide some freak results. I’m not sure whether they will actually fall – but they will be closer than people expect. A nice 12% swing against the incoming opposition leader would be a great start to his tenure as leader. Would Higgins even fall at 12%?
Methinks Crosby/Textor would have nightmares about Wentworth – Rudd leads Howard on preferred PM on this survey 53-43!
Wentworth will still go right down to the wire simply because of the Green vote. If Labor does get 80%+ of preferences there’s going to be a huge message sent to the Liberals they can’t take true liberals for granted.
Labor Wedge opportunity?
Looking at the latest IPCC report on greenhouse, isn’t Mark Vaille and the Nationals vulnerable to questions on this? Maybe it doesn’t matter so much electorally, relative to the margins and location of the seats, but the reportt basically says a lot of rural industries will get wiped out, specifically mentioning southern Australia. How then, can the Nationals ignore it? Their farmer supports are potentially the biggest losers from inaction, with drought being the norm. This could affect places like Eden-Monaro, where water supplies in inland areas have been in dire straights. Howard’s so-called $10 billion Murray plan had no solution for them.
“Right down to the wire”
A phrase I am sick of hearing from the mainstream media. How does an electoral contest not come “down to the wire”? A candidate cannot win a seat PRIOR to polling day and so by definition every electoral race is “down to the wire”.
Rates Analyst: the margin in Higgins is 8.8%. You’d think Costello would have a safer buffer.
Costello still can’t seem to work out what the RBA is trying to tell him.
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/minisite/election_article.aspx?id=305740§ionid=6046§ionname=minisiteelection
People find the RBA so difficult to “read”, but in reality it’s simple.
All you have to do is remember that they take the job of looking after the Australian economy very seriously. They are never, ever flippant. They’re sort of a cross between a Doctor and an undertaker
If they say they are concerned, they are concerned.
If they say they think inflation will rise and trigger more rate rises, they think inflation will rise and trigger rate rises.
“Pity. Turnbull would have made a good future leader of the Libs.”
If Malcolm Turnbull loses Paul k, then he will win the next election if he recontests.
Let’s not forget one K Rudd lost his seat of Griffith in 1996 in the Keating landslide defeat, only to regain it in 1998.
On the other hand,as he has no friends in the Australian Labour Party,it is a wonder Rudd achieved preselection in the first place.
Love Rudd’s latest policy for Western Australians-once the mining boom finishes in the very near future he says, to reinvest their hard earned wealth in to Latin American third world countries.What economic lunacy!
If he uttered this camera ,I hope the Coalition run a TY add to drive home this idiocy this week.
Socrates, spot on, the Nats and their bedfwllows in the various farmers federations should hang their head in shame. By mistake I recieved a e-mail from one of the executive of the VFF and the nub was that all this Global Warming stuff is being generated by “a couple of hundred latte drinking Green wankers in Brunswick.” The Nats are reflecting the common belief in the bush that its just a cycle etc. They willfully ignore the science and as you correctly point out its their heartland that are suffering.
Imagine the impact on the economy when they realise that a huge % of farming land in the Murray/Darling is actually only worth 75% post GW wakeup day. All their gearings$ etc go out the window, mass bankruptcy and social decay. Vaille stated againg the other day, ‘Oh, the science is still in dispute.” They should be collectively horse whipped.
DJ
Economic lunacy is not planning for what happens once the boom ends.
And why not invest into the emerging market? It’s where the new wealth “emerges”. Hence the name.
Don’t throw around words without thinking about them.
260 BV It is an old racing term because to separate a deadheat from a close finish a line is drawn perpendicular to the leading horse’s nosetip on the photo at the finish of the race.
It also has reference to races where the leading competitor is picked by a ribbon being strung across the finishing line and distinguishes the one hitting the sash first from the also rans.
Not as odd as you would have us believe,I’d suggest.
If Turnbull only barely hangs on in this election then I doubt he’ll get the leadership in the next term.
Oh and a brief google search shows that what Rudd actually said was that WA would be the financial intermediary:
“It’s using the expertise in Perth to manage retirement funds coming out of, say China, for third-country investments in, say, real estate in Latin America. It’s doable because of the time zone.”
DJ, you made the mistake of believing what Howard said, rather than actually looking at the facts.
# 248 Follow the Preferences Says: November 19th, 2007 at 8:41 am
I have no doubt about this. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again, I believe the Greens are the long-term opposition party. I’d be very surprised if they don’t pick up a couple of rep seats next election, perhaps even more. Just imagine a UN warning like we’re getting today coming every month or so, backed up by solid evidence that everyone can understand. Their support will only grow.
The libs will have a choice (and I think they’ll make the wrong one) about whether they become progressive and embrace the greens agenda, and treat it as a business/economic issue, or whether they continue their shift to right-wing christian representatives a la the American republicans. I fully expect them to do the latter, leaving the Greens open slather as the progressive left, and the ALP occupying the entire middle ground.
Between 1983 and 1996, there was no polarizing issue like the environment that ate away at the libs. Now there is. When its found that the ALP delivers on its promises, our education and health systems are put back in order, there’ll be nothing that the libs will be able to hold on to as a core belief, except the religious extremism.
The choice will be either the Libs (right-wing religious extremism), the ALP (The entire centre), or the Greens (left-wing progressive socialists).
“264
D J Says:
November 19th, 2007 at 9:35 am
Love Rudd’s latest policy for Western Australians-once the mining boom finishes in the very near future he says, to reinvest their hard earned wealth in to Latin American third world countries.What economic lunacy!
If he uttered this camera ,I hope the Coalition run a TY add to drive home this idiocy this week.”
And if the Coalition does, then every stockbroker in Australia will come out and denounce them as economic illiterates. Nearly every major Wall Street broker has come out over the past fortnight and directed its analysts to look to emerging markets to secure returns over the next few years. Save your bile, and do a bit of reading instead.
Pi,
Under that scenario the ALP won’t lose any election. They’ll be at least part of the coalition ["small" c] government in any scenario if not the outright majority party.
Not that that’s a bad thing – just pointing out the logical conclusion.
Given the article I read earlier today about senior Libs are saying Turnbull is only in it for Turnbull, I don’t think he will have a chance of being leader, either PM or Opposition Leader. No matter what, next election he won’t be standing for Wentworth. He won’t get preselection, as I think the Ugly Right just might do him in.
Rudd is on Faine now. Cassidy to follow
abc.net.au/melbourne
Gotta love how Howard and Smirk try to attack Rudd on what is obviously a quite sensible line about Perth expanding it’s skill base and business activities into finance and investment. Here are the great champions of free enterprise and big business trying to say this is a mad idea?
Has the world turned upside down so much in the last few weeks that this is really happening?
What’s odd about the coverage today is that the Sydney papers are treating the election as if it’s over, whilst The Oz and some other papers seem to think that there’s still life in the Coalition.
Any ideas regarding this?
Barry seems rather embarrassed at his carrying on about Rudd not appearing on Insiders.
Is Cossie trying to bring out his lawyer side now? In the following article he says ‘disputation(s)’ 3 times. Couldn’t he just say dispute(s)? It would make him sound more like the average man if he did.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22781932-29277,00.html
Oh yes, and Voter Boy is quite correct, the push is on to get out of USD and into emerging economies, big time, as the US heads over the cliff of endless debt. We’ve all just seen how a frenzy of credit creation in their housing market has spiked their prospects for years to come.
Howard and Smirk(there will be no rates rise!), are sounding sillier by the minute.
Swing Lowe, I’m sure the upper echelons are feeding selective internal polling to the News Ltd papers in order to keep up the win expectations. Had a conversation this morning with my colleagues who think Labor will win but it will not be a landslide. They predict a majority of about 3 or 4 seats. They felt sure Labor’s bubble would burst long before now and are confused by the marginals poll.
Re Eden-Monaro and Nats generally, they’re being let off the hook by the MSM not following up on the Auditor-General’s report on the RPPs. Vaile’s apology at the weekend was simply designed to take the heat off the issue in the hope of keeping the media off the scent. The Canberra Times has publicised the ANAO’s finding that Nairn failed to declare conflict of interest in funding projects in his electorate, many of which seem pretty dodgy, in some cases laughably so. (The second volume of the report, downloadable from the ANAO web site, documents some doozies here – search for Nairn’s name to find them.) But the other case studies given in the third volume are even more damning. My favourite is the doings recorded in chapter 4 of volume 3, where the RPP was used to give money to one of Kerry Packer’s companies (obviously a worthy cause!) without the authorities even realising that he owned the business, and in spite of local competitors protesting that this would give the Packer company a free kick.
Pi, good analysis, it’s what I’ve been pointing out for a while too.
If Howard loses this election and loses it badly, he has destroyed the Liberal party.
The Libs main constituents are typically the mega rich, economic illiterate, climate illiterate, young liberals and pensioners. He has totally ignored the youth vote.
If the ALP take power this time, its hard to see the Libs improving in the near future.
Not only will they not be in government anywhere, but their main strength being the economic myth will finally be dispelled. Howard has already staked everything on economic credibility this election and stands to lose badly just by how shrill and ridiculous he sounds.
If the Libs lose this election, the youth vote will continue to be against them into the future and they will have no core strengths. Howard with his divisive policies has alienated a large chunk of the Australian population against the Liberals and its hard to see them ever reconverting.
The best Howard can hope for is that this is a close election and he just loses. If this is anywhere near a Ruddslide as many are predicting, then it will take decades (if ever) for the Liberals to recover. And Howard will rightly be remembered for his selfishness that will cost Australia and the Liberals for generations to come. A fitting legacy.
Beautiful quote by Phillip Coorey in SMH today about the coalition campaign:
“Right now, if these blokes had a duck, it would drown.”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/all-he-needs-400000-changed-minds/2007/11/18/1195321603792.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
I want to get a personal side to the ‘Tough on Drugs’ policy. My partner and I were watching TV and he heard about the policy in the news and he said, ‘So they should’. I politely said, ‘I don’t have a problem with them being tough on drugs, it’s the fact that quarantining the payments would cause a rise in pity crimes. Remember I did get burgled 3 times in 8 months.’ He quietly shut up after that.
Will that was my very first thought on the quarrantine of payments… doesn’t this just mean a rise in petty theft?
If people are addicted to drugs quarrantining rightful payment is not going to get them off drugs. They’ll just steal stuff to pay for their habit. But policy like that isn’t meant to be thought about… it’s just there to sound nice and give people a reason to justify their vote for the Libs.
LTEP @ 280,
Why are you colleagues confused about the marginal seat polls? Too high or too low for Labor?
# 272 Rates Analyst Says: November 19th, 2007 at 9:46 am
The ALP will start losing governments when they start losing some of their core constituency to the greens. Right now they have a common (and big) enemy. When the libs have been completely marginalized, they’ll turn on each other. That’s democracy in action.
It’ll take a while (and a few whopping big environmental scares) but the greens are only going to get larger and larger. By next election they’ll probably have about 12-15% of the primary vote. Next election after that, it’ll be pushing 20-25%. After that, who knows? When the nationals (and I mean the actual farmers, not their leadership) wake-up and realise that the greens and them are on the same side, it’ll be a pretty devestating combination.
The libs are fighting an election campaign on ideals and principles that simply don’t exist anymore, and only the die-hard haters are still toe-ing the party line.
LTEP: The ones going to be affected the most are those trying to get off the habit. If anything this policy would make it harder for those who are trying to do something about themselves. It’s like the policy of permanently fostering out kids of addicts, there is no hope of them to get their kids back even if they get clean so why would they want to get clean?
I have no issues of being tough of drugs and crime, but these draconian ways of doing things just don’t help. They need to fight the cause of it, just as much as fighting the effects of drugs.
I suppose Adam will be right, but on the face of it I would have thought that there would have been a number of Wentworthians who wanted to send Turnbull a message over the pulp mill, without supporting the ALP.
Yep, quarrantining welfare payments from junkies will mean that instead of junkies using welfare payment to buy drugs in Parramatta, they’ll just rob you and then buy the drugs with the stolen money…
But as LTEP said, this is an attempted wedge that, unfortunately for the Libs, gained no traction at all as it was released on the same day as the IPCC report.
P.S. I used to work in the Hungry Jack’s near Parramatta station, so I’m just reporting my observations from there.
The ‘punish the druggies’ policy falls down in the minutiae. It will require a voucher system for use on ‘valuable’ purchases, and it will turn every small business owner in the country into a Centrelink administrator. The overheads will be intrusive and annoying to the small business community. Apart from the policy being unjust, impossible to administer and unworkable, plus not actually dealing with the root causes of the problem, it’s a fine policy and deserves our support.
Pi on green votes = fantasist.
If Barry Cassidy stops carrying on like a 5 year old, the new PM might decide to appear on Insiders next Sunday morning, although assuming he wins, I think Rudd would go for Sunrise & Sunday instead LOL
I think also as environmental issues gain more prominence, the greens will become more politically powerful which in turn will attract intelligent thinkers, this will mean they’ll come up with better policies get more monetary support etc, which will increase their legitimacy, they’ll gain more seats, attract the bright political thinkers….. etc
Yes of course its only a matter of time until we are all living in Newtown in a terrace and drinking soy.
Not sure if this was discussed here today. Anyone hear the outrageous attack on Newhouse on today’s 702 by Virginia Trioliberal?
Absolutely stinking biased attack on him, goading him over and over about his non-appearance at that community forum, implying that he wasn’t home with his family at all. What a beat-up — he’s appeared at a whole series of community events that Turnbull has missed, as he pointed out. On the other hand, her interview with Turnbull himself was just a nice friendly game of softball.
She drew a whole swag of complaints for it, including one woman that was so indignant she was on the verge of tears. Her response to the complaints was her usual prim, indignant, “what me biased”. Then she added snidely that “some” politician deserve that extra level of scrutiny.
What a monster.
With all the arguments about Boothby here, I would bet London to a brick that there will be another Advertiser Boothby poll this week. It will be very interesting to see if the 54-46 to Southcott has changed since the last poll.
If, as Tim Flannery suggest, Malcolm is such a champion of the environment, why doesn’t he join the Greens after losing Wentworth and stand for the Senate? After all, he is the quintessential opportunist.
If the liberals lose Edward are you going to be a soy loser ?
But the Advertiser Poll said very little. One may not want to ignore it but it was difficult to say anything very definitive from it. There were some reasons for thinking that the 2PP may have been 54/46 (which is a small swing, not no swing) but this was never unambiguously stated.
As far as I am concerned, the non-release of 2PP figures was illuminating. I doubt the poll either forgot to compute them, or the paper considered them unimportant. So given the tone of the rpeorting (anti-Cornes) I can only conclude that it is likely that the polls 2PP figures were less anti-Cornes than would have been liked.
My other interpretation is that ther are a significant number of ALP voters in the electroate who will direct their votes through other parties but at the end of the day preference the ALP. Just my opinion.
Matthew Sykes, if the Boothby poll shows Cornes in front I will change my mind on it. At the moment though there’s absolutely no evidence she will win. I also don’t believe people when they say people are becoming increasingly impressed with her. It takes a lot to change a negative impression and I doubt she’s met enough people to significantly turn it around.
Breaking news:
Last night’s Rove was a ratings winner for Channel 10, with a national audience of 1.38 million.
Smart decision for Rudd to choose Rove over that hack Barry Cassidy, wouldn’t you agree?
Mad Professor: Because that is no way for Malcom to be leader of this country. At the moment he can’t become president, and it looks like he has burnt his bridges in becoming PM through the Libs. He doesn’t want to be G-G because that is only a vice-regal position and he would have no power.
The more you look in to Turnbull, the more you see he is only in it for himself, and he is trying desperately to show that he stood up in cabinet as the voice of reason for climate change.
When they lose Dr Sykes.
Howard going to Perth (again!) is a sign they have strong hopes for Swan and Cowan, is that right? Their thinking they can win 2 in the west is a better shot than shoring up their chances back east with seats in the 5% – 7% range. Does this make sense?
# 292 Edward StJohn Says: November 19th, 2007 at 10:24 am
EsJ on the liberals… doomed.
HH: Smart move indeed. Though I think it will only cementing the already high youth vote. I’m sure there would have been a few people in their 30s watching it, but I don’t know many of my 40+ friends who watch it. It was good, and I’m sure it does well for this ‘generational change’ vote.
Liberal attack-letterboxing here in Ryan over the weekend. They must be having a massive spend on printing and distribution. My perception is that the vast bulk of their rubbish is going through the junk mail distributors – they have a lack of true believers to get out and work for them!
Michael Johnson has taken to using mannequins dressed up as supporters!! LOL!
Did I mention the ubertool was also caught speeding through a school zone during the election? “Vote Liberal to stop local hoons!!” Excuse me? What if our local hoon endangering children is the Liberal member?
LOL!
Howard Hater Says: “Smart decision for Rudd to choose Rove over that hack Barry Cassidy, wouldn’t you agree?”
No question about that. Cassidy’s Insiders is a laugh.
It’d be strange if WA behaved differently to the rest of the country, but possible, due to the wealth and prosperity in that state currently.
Labor is still very worried about Cowan and Swan, the best scenario for them is said to be they pick up Hasluck but lose Cowan to the Libs, not much confidence about picking up Stirling apparently.
HH.. Why was appearing on Rove and Insiders mutually exclusive? The man is a human dynamo. He could easily have done both as they were at opposite ends of the day. He avoided Insiders out of political expediency which is his prerogative but it doesn’t bode well for future spin control out of PM Rudd’s office.
1.38 million viewers and I was one of them. This was a first for me, and to be frank, probably the last, but I thought Rudd handled it skillfuly. He even did some good funny lines and showed he could be comfortable in his own skin and not ‘up himself’. It would have gone down quite well with the main demographic and was thus a very good move.
Cassidy on the other hand, has grown full of himself and well deserved his slapping from Gillard.
No…he’s here to prop up Kalgoorlie and Canning in a continuation of their firewalling strategy.
Does $weetie have any balls? Is he tiger or a pussy? Can close a tax loop hole or are his eyes closed?
I expect the Tories were waiting for a Tampa.
IPCC report ? – Nope
Tax loop hole? – Ha Ha
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/the-millionaires-factory-guide-to-cutting-tax/2007/11/18/1195321607422.html
25% of voters this weekend get their political news from Rove and the Chaser. Nuff said.
# 311 Flash Says: November 19th, 2007 at 10:44 am
Avoided? The word is ‘punished’.
Give oxygen to piers ackerman, and you deserve to have your oxygen cut off.
Not really Pi, it’s called democracy. The idea that only people who support Labor should be given oxygen is ludicrous.
I pretty much agree with you on Boothby actually LTEP. I’m just interested to see if there has been any movement in the polling. I suspect there will have been.
Here’s my Boothby prediction from yesterday:
Boothby is one of those that everybody will be looking out for on election night. Was Nicole Cornes the right choice ? Is she a disaster ? Will her grass-roots campaign style be effective ? All questions that remain unanswered until next Saturday night, or maybe later if it’s close.
I work at Flinders University, in the heart of Boothby, and have many friends and colleagues that live within this seat. I can honestly say, I have found little evidence of people wanting to vote directly for Nicole Cornes, in spite of my words of biased labor wisdom. However, I distinctly detect an equal unwillingness to vote for Southcott. A number of people have indicated they will be voting greens and sending their preference to Cornes. So it is for this reason I think a high greens vote will be essential for Cornes to win here. And if she wins, it will be a close-run thing.
The green vote last time was 7%, which is fairly decent. I suspect it will be much higher this time, easily getting over 10%. In fact, I’m going to go out on a limb here and predict 12% !
So, I’m caught in 2 minds, but I don’t think Cornes has done enough, and will just miss out. Liberal retain. (2PP swing to labor of 4%)
Kirribilli Removals Says: “Cassidy on the other hand, has grown full of himself and well deserved his slapping from Gillard.”
I know, she made Cassidy look like a tool:
JULIA GILLARD: (laughs) I’m here to answer your questions. So there’s two ways this interview can go, you can act like a jilted lover and we can do that for several minutes, or you can ask me any political questions you’ve got and we can start them. Rove is a good way of engaging with voters who – with the greatest respect Barrie – don’t get up on this time on a Sunday morning and watch the political shows.
“And why not invest into the emerging market? It’s where the new wealth “emerges”
Emerging Markets are by nature high risk Rates Analyst. With the greatest respect, would you really intend to invest any of your hard earned wealth that you may have in such economies?
They are unstable by nature and yes you are right they may emerge from a low base just to go back from where they come-dispair!
Why not invest in the top 15 companies listed on the Australian Stock Exchange instead of taking any notice of Rudds vudu economic plan!
and yes I have read this
“It’s using the expertise in Perth to manage retirement funds coming out of, say China, for third-country investments in, say, real estate in Latin America. It’s doable because of the time zone.”
and really there are simpler methods of investing particularly for retirees.Is this an arbitrage with the time zone-sounds cute!
“And if the Coalition does, then every stockbroker in Australia will come out and denounce them as economic illiterates. Nearly every major Wall Street broker has come out over the past fortnight and directed its analysts to look to emerging markets to secure returns over the next few years. Save your bile, and do a bit of reading instead
VoterBoy of Over the Water -I think you are wrong in your prognosis-some NY Stock Brokers maybe overweight for emerging markets -I doubt it Australian Stockbrokers are saying it and further there are a lot more safe havens for folk to invest here in Australia. Rudd is advocating speculation which is throught with danger!
And VoterBoy of Over the Water I am not a bitter person just frustrated that ALP will be in government for a while. But then again that’s another argument!
Regards
DJ
To all those people worried about WA and other marginal seats (and whether the Libs could win them), I now present to you the newly patented “Swing Lowe Bookie Consensus”
The below is a list of all the seats that the three main bookies we’ve been looking at this election (Portlandbet, Sportingbet and Centrebet) have said will “fall” to Labor. To get onto the list, all 3 sites must have the seat falling:
NSW
Parramatta
Lindsay
Eden-Monaro
Dobell
Robertson
VIC
La Trobe
QLD
Bonner
Moreton
Blair
Herbert
SA
Kingston
Wakefield
Hasluck
TAS
Bass
Braddon
NT
Solomon
WA
Hasluck
No bookie has any Labor seats falling to the Libs (even in WA), meaning that the current “Swing Lowe Bookie Consensus” is that Labor will gain 17 seats on Saturday. That said, watch out for Page to fall soon, as both Sportingbet and Centrebet have Labor as favourites whilst Portlandbet has the Coalition up $1.86/$1.88.
re posts 248 follow the prefs, 270 pi, 272 rates analysis – I agree with your comments.
There is emerging an unofficial alp-greens coalition, in which the Alp is moving rightwards to claim the centre, leaving the Greens as their surrogate left branch. The growing importance of environmental issues has made this possible. The social agenda is now being shared between them – the more progressive by the Greens, while the ALP follows the conservatives in dishing out middle-class welfare. That’s very smart politics.
So what happens to the conservatives? They’ve been wedged in effect – to the right of centre. That’s been a result of Hansonism (in the guise of Howardism). True liberals like Fraser have been betrayed. This partly explains the doctors’ wives’ defections.
If Labor is really smart over the next decade they’ll market CLP (country labor) with a strong environmental flavour and start pitching to the Nationals’ constituency. The Nationals have taken country folk for granted for far too long, but Labor needs to take them seriously if it wants these folk to actually shift their mindset and do what marginal voters do – act more pragmatically.
Flash, I don’t think Rudd’s avoiding media scrutiny, as Gillard said, ask me the questions, and Kevin has been on all serious ABC outlets many times.
What I think was telling was Cassidy hammering on the inane question about how many times Rudd has refused to go into the left/right thing. Bazza rattled off how many times he refused to answer, like Rudd was Christ in the garden or something (if that’s the right biblical reference, but something about the cock crowing…someone help me out here!)
This is a bullsh!t argument, like how many angels you can fit on the head of a pin, (ooh, medieval sophistry, yum!), and is PRECISELY the reason Rudd will not fall into that quicksand.
So there’s Bazza, goading Gillard on what we all agree is a tired cliche at best, or a very complex philosophical argument that CANNOT be compressed into a media soundbite, and then he wonders why Rudd gave him the flick!
These media people become buffoons with long incumbency, maybe they should rotate jobs with every new government.
Woops, forgot to add Bowman as another consensus Labor gain. That takes the total up to 18…
Personally, no I don’t have any PA exposure to LatAm.
But Rudd was suggesting that WA be the financial conduit between Asia and LaTam.
And yes, I derive large portions of my PA wealth from acting as a financial conduit.
(PA stands for personal account, its a short hand to delineate between the trades implement on behalf of yourself, as opposed to trades imlpemented on behalf of your employer.)
Reported in The Age this morning that Hockey is saying he cannot detect any concern amongst voters over work choices. Says it all really doesn’t it?
Hockey didn’t notice the 20K odd stickers on his own electorate office?
Yikes.
new aussie
Labor are the 2nd party of the Right – see http://www.politicalcompass.org
To get Labor back to the centre, if you look at alot of its policies, for example, an education, for them to become a truly centre/left party will be amazing!!
The Libs are now hitting the extreme right with IR!!
Andrews is saying if the government is re-elected it change the temporary work visas to stop them being used for sex workers. One has to ask how they let this happen in the first place and why has it now become an election issue, it’s their bloody fault it has happened not Labor’s.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Govt-to-ban-visa-holders-from-sex-work/2007/11/19/1195321651125.html
# 317 Lose the election please Says: November 19th, 2007 at 10:52 am
Spread baseless lies continuously, and then expect people to give you legitimacy? He deserves to be writing by-lines for trading post, and anyone who supports him should recognize that giving him legitimacy is poison. Maybe then they’ll raise their standards, and select journalists to go on the show that display even the most rudimentary levels of integrity.
I have one statement to say to Barry Cassidy. You make your bed, you sleep in it.
In all honesty, if the ALP don’t need to win Wentworth to win, I would rather Turnbull stay in Parliament.
Maybe he could be one of Rudd’s ring ins? in the next election? ; )
After all deep down, Turnbull could be either of labor right or liberal left.
Also I would rather see a Liberla party of true centrist vlues rather than this sterile hybrid of thacherite and noecon fantasies that this twisted rodent dwarf (peter pettigrew for all Harry potter fans) has made the Libs….unconscionable as they are.
Will have to agree to disagree on Rudd/Insiders.
However, I will predict that many of the Rudd media management style cheer leaders around here will be far less enthusiastic about this approach once it has become a full-blown monster about 12 months from now.
Yes, I understand the deep-seated desire to beat Howard at all costs, but surely it is not too much too hope for that those people who support accountable democracy would also support rigourous scrutiny of political contenders.
It is factually irrelevant that Piers Ackerman is sometimes a panellist on Insiders because it is Barrie Cassidy who conducts the political interviews. I don’t think anyone who has taken the time to watch a number of his interviews would seriously suggest that he is biased one way or another. The only serious suggestion of bias relates to his earlier job as press secretary to PM Bob Hawke.
It looks as though the pulp mill will never be built. There are massive eucalypt plantations in South America and the timber is better quality and easier and cheaper to harvest than Tasmanian old growth. Pulp prices are set to dive. The high Aussie dollar plus a surplus of cheap pulp makes the mill a crazy proposition.
I always felt the ANZ bank would be reluctant to finance it.
This may take the sting out of opposition to Malcolm Turnbull.
At this point I think it likely that Malcolm Turnbull will win, possibly even comfortably.
Greens have no reason to preference to Coalition though.
The first item on Labor’s agenda is to ratify Kyoto. This would have to be the first item on the Greens agenda.
Finally global warming is right up there as a high priority issue to be dealt with.
I believe it is more likely that John Howard will lose his seat.
Two thirds of Bennelong voters believe Labor will win and they all know John Howard will resign within months after a Labor win leading to a by-election.
It would be logical for them to preference Maxine.
The Greens vote this time may well be a record high, especially as global warming looks more and more worrying.
One thing we do know, Labor can’t win without Greens preferences.
Swing Lowe
So what your exact majority prediction? Off the cuff?
Maybe with this whole Insiders bruhaha it is being lost that Gilllard actually did go. The Liberals aren’t the only one with a Team, remember.
Cossie on radio refusing to criticise Pratt. The guy only ripped off business and consumers to the tune of $700M. Apply the druggies principle: garnishee his wages!
Admit it Pi. You have never watched Barrie Cassidy conduct an interview. There is no shame in saying so, or that you have jumped on the rhetorical bandwagon in this final week of an election campaign.
297 [I would bet London to a brick that there will be another Advertiser Boothby poll this week. ]
Matthew, sure you don’t mean ‘London to a brick on’?
‘London to a brick’ means long odds against an event happening, ‘London to a brick on’ means high probability of an event occuring.
328 – That’s my point. The centre has slightly shifted to encompass a part of the right that the Libs have abandoned by moving to the more extreme right. As the ALP has moved the centre rightwards, the greens are expanding to share it with the ALP left.
The Libs need to reinvent themselves. Assuming they’re not stupid, they will. Don’t ever forget that the Libs have their left side also.
A big difference since Menzies time is that now we have an ALP-Greens alliance vs an ALP-DLP split.
# 317 Lose the election please Says: November 19th, 2007 at 10:52 am
Of course I have. As soon as I saw Piers Ackerman grace his panel, I resolved never to watch his show again. Clear enough?
Gerr @ 334,
I’ve predicted Labor to win 81 seats (net gain of 21).
The other seats I added were Page, Deakin and either Corangamite or Stirling (can’t remember which one I picked).
RA.. Think about this for moment.
Australia is selecting a Government for the next 3 years when all agree we face tremendous challenges such as climate change and potentially rocky economic times.
One of only two TV programs exclusively devoted to politics is Insiders (the other being Meet the Press). Insiders seeks an interview with the alternative PM every single weekend for the duration of the election campaign leading up to this most important of decisions.
He refuses every single weekend. And that is a good thing in a world of media management when there are fewer and fewer opportunities to scrutinise candidates.
Journalists are getting on the leaders buses on the campaign trail oblivious to where they are going that day! Is this the kind of accountable democracy we want?
338: You’re probably right Steve, but hopefully I got my point across that I’m quite certain the Advertiser will have a Boothby opinion poll this week.
Flash Says: “Admit it Pi. You have never watched Barrie Cassidy conduct an interview. There is no shame in saying so, or that you have jumped on the rhetorical bandwagon in this final week of an election campaign.”
Flash, I watch it every week. I just make sure not have breakfast before hand. Some of the panel regulars are vomit inducing to say the least. Piers Ackerman is a disgrace. Even some of my Liberal mates reckon he’s an idiot.
333 – You’re right about Green preferences. But consider that the Coalition would never win without National votes. It’s exactly the same thing. It all comes down to a 2pp deal. So Labor better keep the Greens on side – and don’t they know it!
George, that may well be so. The point I made in the same post is that Piers Ackerman does not conduct the interviews. Barrie Cassidy does.
Yes it is.
I want the democracy to be about the policy and the party – not the leader.
So why can’t the Deputy Leader answer the necessary questions?
I just heard a promo on ABC radio for a service to send election results to your mobile phone. The results will be straight from Antony’s computer, sent out via SMA. See here:
http://abc.net.au/mobile/
342 Flash Says: November 19th, 2007 at 11:14 am
The ABC better find better journalists that are worthy of political opinion then. I don’t need to hear an hour of uncontested lies from a right-wing hack in order to come to my decisions.
You want to have balanced commentary? Provide balance in the panel. Any panel that contains both Andrew Bolt and Piers Ackerman doesn’t have the slightest shred of legitimacy.
Rudd might as well appear on sesame street for all the good it would do.
Barry Cassidy killed his show with his own incompetence. It’s time to put another person in the job that knows how to create an environment where people don’t have a gag reflex as soon as they switch over to the program.
No Rudd should have done Insiders. What do you think or what is the goss on the reason he didn’t? I think its personal rather than political now. Has there been a falling out between Rudd and Cassidy? Rudd and the ABC? Rudd and his mancrush stalker Ackerman the Hutt?
Flash Says: “George, that may well be so. The point I made in the same post is that Piers Ackerman does not conduct the interviews. Barrie Cassidy does”
And Barry does no better job either. He often brings up useless points and angles on what’s happening in politics that it borders on being more entertainment than real analysis. I wouldn’t say there is much current affairs, political analysis or much “inisder” info on his show. Very thin on substance.
@ Swing Lowe
Going on gutfeeling interspersed with hard data (not to mention intergestion), Ive picked Lab to win 80-83 seats.
Great minds.
It’d be interesting to see everybody’s 2pp prediction up in a table. No comments, just the figure. What about it William? Mine’s 52.9.
Swing Lowe -
IMO anything which is inside 60-40 odds with the bookies can still result in a win for the party which is behind in odds.
You yourself posted the ad attacking the Labor candidate in Dobell, that doesnt seem to be a sign that the Libs have given up on holding Dobell. It would be a brave person who would say Robertson is “in the bag” too!
On a 60-40 I think you will find it is about 14 seats which are certs and about 10 or so which will decide the election on the night.
Labor 53.7
I predict that Kevin Rudd, over time, will come to shun any serious interview, including the 7.30 Report, Lateline and Laurie Oakes. He’s done them thus far under sufferance but he has clearly flagged his intentions with his emphasis on FM radio and the likes of Rove. Yes the populist approach is an effective way to speak to the politics-disaffected masses but it is bad news in terms of holding government accountable.
You have to give credit to John Howard for routinely submitting himself to tough interviews. Even Tony Abbott, the very evening of his horror day of being late for his debate etc, was there on Lateline, ready to cop it on the chin.
I wonder how many seats 53.7 corresponds to? lol.
Re Insiders: Wasn’t it just a waste of Kevin’s precious time for little potential gain?
I doubt swinging voters sacrifice an hour of their Sunday morning watching political gobbledygook.
52.5
I predict if Labor loses:
1) The Rove/Insiders thing will be seen as a big tactical mistake and identified as the turning point proving a lack of substance in the Labor campaign
2) The failure to counter the anti-union campaign will be seen as the 2007 equivalent of the interest rates campaign.
Of course if Labor wins they will all be regarded as tactical geniuses.
Rudd didn’t do Insiders because of the risk of the media jumping all over something he said. It was an unnecessary risk when he is cruising to victory. If he went on to Insiders he obviously didn’t have anything much to gain, just the risk of putting his foot in his mouth or being gotcha’ed.
Not appearing on Insiders is not an assault on democracy. Rorting regional grant schemes before an election is.
As other people have likewise emphasised, Rudd was keen for multiple debates where journalists would have given him plenty of probing questions. Howard refused.
It says something about the election campaign that some of us can spend so much time debating whether Rudd should have gone onto a TV show or not instead of discussing/debating issues of far more interest, relevance and importance.
To give the Westpoll individual seat polling perspective I thought I’d post up some seat polls they did during the 2005 state election, all 2PPs (ALP/Coalition):
Joondalup:
Westpoll: 46/54
Result: 53.3/46.7
ALP underestimation: 7.3%
Riverton:
Westpoll: 49/51
Result: 51.7/48.3
ALP underestimation: 2.7%
Bunbury:
Westpoll: 41/59
Result: 49.7/50.3
ALP underestimatiton: 8.7%
Albany:
Westpoll: 44/56
Result: 51.3/48.7
ALP underestimation: 7.3%
Murray:
Westpoll: 43/57
Result: 49.2/50.8
Labor underestimation: 6.2%
As you can see, each seat underestimated the eventual Labor vote, on average about 6.44%. I’m not necessarily saying that they’ve got it wrong this time… just that it at least lends doubt to the polls’ veracity. Unless I’ve missed something.
Samuel K: The point here really is not about how many people will watch Insiders, it is about the democratic process. And of course, in the unlikely event that Barrie Cassidy had succeeded in getting Kevin Rudd to depart from his very carefully-adhered-to script then it would be all over all the news outlets that the masses do in fact watch.
(I’m not going to further bore everyone senseless with any more posts on this.)
Piers Akermann is not only a disgrace to journalism, he has also personally vilified Rudd and Therese Rein.
An edited list of Rudd’s crimes (according to Akerman, and written on at great length by him) is as follows:
* Long Tan (unpatriotic, hypocracy, liar)
* Heiner Affair (accessory after the fact to gang rape)
* Queensland Health system (Rudd is “Dr. Death”, has indirectly killed innocent patients)
* Strippergate (hypocrite on religion)
* Therese Rein’s UK subsidiary (Rein is a class traitor by being rich, hypocrite on IR)
… many more where they came from.
Rudd’s message to Cassidy was: “Get some decent guests onto your show and I’ll come on.”
I know Rudd is not interviewed by the panelists, but for Rudd to be in even the same building as Akerman must be distasteful; in the same studio and you’re into full-blown spew inducing.
I think that is a ridiculous statement. 95% of the population are unaware of “Insiders” and don’t give a sh*t.
That’s more like it. The unions line has worked well for the coalition, and I don’t think the Labor party has answered it strongly enough.
ESJ,
You may well be right – seats like Bowman that are consistently 1.80/1.90 for either side are probably too close to call at this stage. As well all know, a week is a long time in politics (particularly the last week of an election campaign).
However, as I have said before, the individual seat betting markets in the NSW State Election were interesting in that they seemed to show a bias towards the incumbent (and not just Labor incumbents) compared to the actual results. From my memory, the seats where the betting markets predicted the incumbent to win where they ultimately lost were:
Tweed (NAT gain from LAB)
Port Stephens (LIB gain from LAB)
Manly (LIB gain from IND)
Lake Macquarie (IND gain from LAB)
So IMHO, the betting markets may actually be underestimating the number of individual seats that the Coalition will lose on Saturday. It will be interesting to see if this turns out to be true or not…
Gotta love this….
We should’ve signed Kyoto: Peter Debnam
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=125566
I can’t resist one final observation: Don’t forget that Kevin Rudd comes from the same state that brought you Joh “Feed the chooks” Bjelke-Petersen. Too much sunshine.
Ashley, that articles confuses signing with ratifying.
ESJ @ 360,
If Labor lose, well may we say “God save the Queen” coz nothing will save the unions thereafter
Flash, you are barking, incessantly, but the caravan has moved on mate.
…and this is just too precious for words “Journalists are getting on the leaders buses on the campaign trail oblivious to where they are going that day! Is this the kind of accountable democracy we want?”
The precedent here was set by one John Winston Howard in 1996. Do yourself a favour and read some of the articles written by journos travelling in the Howard bus at the time – particularly by Jim Charlton of the Courier Mail. – he was physically threatened by the Lib campaign team (and remeber he was quite old and frail at the time) after he started complaining about this practice in his column at the time.
I say good on Rudd for not going on Insiders. Any show that provides oxygen for the likes of Bolt, Akerman, Henderson etc cannot be regarded as intelligent or unbiased. Was Rudd given, weekly, right of reply to the weekly ten minute anti-Labor rants by Paul Kelly? Cassidy has given soft interviews to the Coalition about three to one over the past several months. The program is so Melbourne / Sydney centric it is laughable. You must remember that in a democracy, candidates are accountable to all electors equally, not just to the political intelligentsia.
If Jon Faine’s performance with Rudd this morning is any guide to what Barry might have tried on I’m not surprised Rudd gave it a miss. Jon is also having a whine about Rudd’s media strategy and seemed determined to goad a slip-up out of Rudd. It turned into a waste of time because Faine wasn’t particularly interested in anything Rudd had to say.
I think the ABC have been hoping that an incoming Labor government will give them back some legitimacy as they have been frozen out in favor of commercial media by the Liberals for a long time now. Seeing Rudd’s media strategy not fulfill the ABC’s wishlist seems to have given a few presenters the sooks.
Until we move beyond the ‘gotcha’ style of reporting where journos look for nothing but perceived ‘gaffes’ journos simply cannot expect either politicians or viewers to take them seriously.
LTEP, Debnam said:
I wish we had ratified Kyoto long ago and then led the world with bold initiatives in clean energy,” he told the summit.
Though bviously the author of the article doesn’t distinguish between signing (already) and ratifying (still to do).
Flash: But Sir Joh wasn’t born in QLD, he wasn’t even an Australian born, he was a Kiwi.
I agree Dave. The media jumping all over “gaffes” instead of serious policy discussion is the cause of the dumbing down and limitations on media access. Sensationalism is not good for democracy.
Thats a big assumption Swing Lowe – that theyll be saved if Labor wins
366 Ashley – “That’s more like it. The unions line has worked well for the coalition, and I don’t think the Labor party has answered it strongly enough.”
And your proof of this statement is? The consensus from journalists and some disgruntled Liberals alike is that this approach is not cutting through. The polls haven’t moved over the campaign either according to the “Insiders” program.
Will: Joh’s family moved to Kingaroy when he was aged 2 years old. Your point?
Guess what. A person can support the following 2 things at the same time:
1. A Labor victory on Nov 24
2. Maximum media scrutiny of contenders
ESJ,
Fair point. No tears about the unions’ ultimate demise from here…
379 Flash
Not on this blog you cant
378 GB
Leaving a negative campaign unanswered is a v.dangerous thing to do. Labor has assumed people have switched off to JWH and chose not answer well see on Saturday if that assumption was correct. If JWH sneaks in that will be identified as blunder numero uno and blunder numero duo will be extremely poor candidate selection (with a few notable exceptions, McKew, Colbran,Kelly)
Accounting for Turnbull’s personal vote and Liberals campgaining very hard in new areas of Wentworth which were previously in safe Labor electorates, this is not a good result. If I were the Liberals I would be concerned about seats like Ryan, Sturt, Boothby, North Sydney, Kooyong and Higgins along with Bennelong.
Flash, do you see the media has been impartial in this election?
I think that’s an important question to consider.
Good morning bludgers. There seems to be quite a degree of tetchiness in the air. I haven’t seen any reference to my theory about why Turnbull may well lose which is the Wentworth voters being pi**ed off with Overington trying to rort their votes in Malcolm’s favour. Her “kingmaker” series of articles really seems to be working a treat!
@ 305
Mad Professor Says:
November 19th, 2007 at 10:41 am
Howard going to Perth (again!) is a sign they have strong hopes for Swan and Cowan, is that right? Their thinking they can win 2 in the west is a better shot than shoring up their chances back east with seats in the 5% – 7% range.
MAD PROF,
Howard is going to WA because he hopes that state is this election’s Tasmania where he won his Senate majority in the final week of ‘04 campaign. He’ll be desperately seeking the equivalent of “Tassie Timber-workers Union”. You know, the GOOD NO-THUGS and NO- BOSSES UNION, as opposed to all those evil unions like nurses, firefighters, police, and teachers.
Picture this: a few dozen beefy blokes in hard-hats, flashing AWA’a, tossing down beers with Howard will be pure campaign media gold (or iron or whatever else they’re digging up for China).
Then Howard can get them to warn us that Rudd will stop the resources boom in its tracks because we all know that China and the other countries buying up this stuff have nothing whatsoever to do with resources boom. If a Mandarin speaker like Rudd becomes PM, those wily Chinese will be so miffed that they will cancel all our contracts and pay heaps more for the same stuff elsewhere, right?
Gary, I personally think that the unions line is the only message that has actually cut through from the government. But even so, it isn’t enough to outweigh all the negatives associated with voting for Howard and the attractions of voting for Rudd.
So I was just agreeing that *if* Labor lost, that’s where I would be pointing the finger of blame to start with.
But I don’t think Labor will lose, because an anti-union message won’t win them nearly enough votes. (But it does work with some people… those nutty swinging voters on 4 corners for example).
379 Flash – you maybe right regarding Rudd and his approach to the media but your ‘evidence’ backing up your reasoning is very tenuous indeed. It could just as well be argued that when Rudd gets the hang of being PM (if elected) he may go on these so called “hard hitting” programs as a challenge. As PM you can’t afford to hide and I don’t think for one minute Rudd is the type of person to do so. It’s just that you have to get their first.
LTEP: I believe the media is mainly driven by the wish for a compelling narrative (The Australian is an exception to this – quite an unusual creature). Just consider what has happened in the past several days. The media narrative is: The race is all but over. The Coalition is starting a civil war. Kevin Rudd is a winner. We are witnessing generational change. Until that happened – and it really started happening after the Rudd masterstroke of underspending Howard at the Labor launch – the narrative was: we have a new, relatively unknown Labor leader, JWH is noted for remarkable comebacks, turfing out a government in booming economic times is almost unprecedented.
Yes I think the media has been mainly impartial, once you take into account the need for this narrative.
gee there’s alot of talk all of a sudden that this is going to be very tight? Who started all this mumbo jumbo??
most tof the marginal polls were rather marginal in their thoroughness weren’t they?
That may be your feeling, various above, and you may be right – but the poll evidence that the anti-union hysteria has bit just isnt there, IM afirad.
For that reason, Id have to disagree until further evidenec comes to ligyht.
The only real shifts we’ve seen in the campaign are from ALP to Green. Which suggests the opposite( ALP not pro-union enough to retain first prefs); or more likely, that environment is shifting them.
A more supportable conclusion on the evidence: The coalition has been banging on about irrelevant shite for 6 weeks.
Flash: My point is the same point you try to make saying Rudd comes from the same state as Sir Joh. It’s a nothing point, and the 2 men are completely different.
Lets not forget Joh is the man who took a gerrymander to the n-th degree and gave us the most c*rrupt government and police force in Australia.
I agree Gary @ 390.
I don’t think Rudd will shy away from interviews once elected… he’s a media sl*t. In the lead up to the election he is simply managing risk.
AMA, Bar Association, Farmers federation, business groups, etc – they all have paid up members. They’re “unions”.
I suspect Howard spending so much time in Perth is an admission that the liberals know WA is their last hope, and frankly not a particularly good one. The opinion poll average is at least a small swing to labor in WA, which should enable the ALP at worst to win one lose one in WA.
I think there is a very simple reason for Rudd’s media strategy. Mike Rann has helped run it and if you are from SA, you’ll know all the bullying tactics and media manipulation that have made Mike universally known as Media Mike. It might not be very democratic or in the state’s best interest but it works.
Can anyone tell me what the average poll results were in the final week of the 1993 election? Or point me to a link?
BuzzBurr ad on every 5 minutes as is Lib interest rates ad.
386 Ashley – I see what you are getting at but I would argue that this anti union approach will do two things – harden the resolve of the ‘rusted ons’ to stay ie minimising the chance of a complete rout and antagonise a large majority of union members, many of which would have voted Liberal in the past. To me it’s a “save the furniture” approach.
Gerr,
Which electorate are you in?
Rudd07 is only doing what Howard did in 96.
Flying under the radar.
No one cares about the “Union Bosses” we are all too worried about “Our Bosses” ripping us off.
I laugh at seeing the Lib Lackeys in here proclaim the Union attacks are working… ROFL! Rudd hasn’t budged an INCH in the polls you morons!
Your strategy is a complete and dismal failure and just reinforces in peoples minds that you hate employee’s and are the employers lapdog.
399 Melbourne Ports. U?
I’ve said it before, in the era of workchoices, being associated as the “union” team might not be such a bad thing.
This is a bit disappointing. Tip claims he will stay on for three years when he loses.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/costello-to-stay-on–regardless/2007/11/19/1195321648601.html
I’m in Lowe (see nickname)
Will.. I was, with my tongue heading in the direction of my cheek, suggesting that maybe warmer climates promote a sort lethargy when it comes to tackling the tough questions. The sun’s always shining. Perfect one day, paradise the next, or whatever the saying is. Down in Melbourne, where Barrie Cassidy is based, there is a good deal more angst, a good deal more soul-searching. A major cultural divide, wouldn’t you say, the good times of the Gold Coast versus the grim reality of say West Brunswick.
I thought the insiders was a sydney show?
404 – maybe no-one else is interested in employing him?
The backdrop to Insiders is always the Melbourne skyline.
Re 276,
Swing Lowe Says:
Agreed, Swing Lowe. I saw the paper edition of the DT earlier this morning and their lead story today on the heels of their endorsement of Rudd yesterday is the Liberal infighting story. I swear the DT gets more readership in Sydney than the SMH too
. I think this is because the polls have been so solid for so long and there are so MANY mortgage belt households here in the greater Sydney area. The IR rises really bite up here and frankly, the IR rises probably were worth a negative few percent to the coaltion statewide too back in March. Up here, it is Work Choices but IR rises are a very close second 
410 Julie- Doesn’t the DT have the higest readership of any paper in Australia?
Diogenes 404
Costello can say all he likes. If this election turns out as all the polls suggest and he survives, given his lack lustre campaigning effort, his next pre-selection will be interesting to say the least.
Julie,
The DT has more readership in Sydney than the SMH except for Saturday, when (for some reason) the SMH is comfortably in front. The highest selling newspaper in Australia is the Herald Sun – more a reflection of the problems at The Age rather than any quality coming out of the Hun.
Interestingly, Saturday is the day when The Oz’s readership collapses – so much so that more people read the Saturday edition of the Newcastle Herald than The Weekend Oz…
Swing Lowe,
You can now add Page to you list, they’ve just firmed into $1.60 favourites
Gerr. Its definitely Melb. If you ever stay on to watch Offsiders all they talk about is AFL. Both varieties of rugby hardly get a mention. Not what a voter in Griffith what’s to see.
Anyone care to guess tomorrows Newspoll? I think it will show a widening.
On Portland I mean
Flash: Trust me, I’m with you about the sun causing issues with politicians up in QLD. Just look what it has given us in the last decade, Pauline Hanson and One Nation. The fact that QLD elected 11 ONP MPs to State Parliament just says alot about from where I’m from. My last election while living in QLD was when they vote Santa Claus in to the QLD parliament.
Alpal 416
I have no idea; I’d be very happy with Newspoll steady on 54/46. But if it was anything good for the coalition, I’d suspect Shanahan couldn’t help himself and would already be crowing about it. Silence is golden IMO
Yay! The Swing Lowe Bookie Consensus seems to be catching on (19 seats and counting…)
Incidentally, Portlandbet has just reopened betting on Wentworth. The odds are:
LIB $1.60
LAB $2.25
OTHER $81
I’d be happy if the Newspoll was 53/47, but even happier if it was 54+/46-
Newspoll will be 52-48
There is no logic to that other than Newspoll seems to go counter-intuitively at the moment. In fact most of the polls seem to go out when i think they shouldn’t and in when i’m least expecting it.
Maybe i’m trying to reverse jinx it….
Swing Lowe. Re the Oz saturday numbers. At a guess I reckon its because corporate subscriptions only cover weekdays. “Real people” buy the SMH, DT, Hun etc.
Oh, plleeeeaaseeee can we have a Galaxy Bennelong poll?
I’m inclined to lean that way too Flash. It’s easy enough to paint the media as biased against the side you’re looking out for… but I’m not sure it completely holds up, bar a few exceptions. I think some papers are clearly biased, but as a media narrative in general I feel it’s been pretty even-handed.
I’m not sure where I stand on the lack of media scrutiny of Rudd. Do Oppositions require the same level of scrutiny as Governments? Personally, I’m not sure how much media scrutiny an Opposition Leader can have.
LTEP,
Rudd’s media approach is driven by Walt Secord who was Bob Carr’s point man. Expect very much a continuation of that in government.
ESJ (354) Interesting concession on your part – 14 certain seats to Labor.
Tony Windsor has said that in a hung parliament he will support the party which has the highest 2pp vote – and not even you or Glenn, or any of the other right wingers on this site, have suggested the coalition can achieve that. So effectively you have conceded that Howard can’t win.
Newspoll will not be 52/48
It was taken over a very ordinary period for the Libs: Rudd’s launch, Abbott opening his mouth again, and the Auditor-General’s report, which got a surprisingly big run even in the tabloids.
57-43. I’m not superstitious.
424 Ashley-How many Bennelong polls do we need? There have now been five, all showing the Rodent to lose. This is telling us something. And I refer to Antony’s quote in the Age (which I still don’t believe he said in this context)
“Every poll shows the Prime Minister will lose,” says ABC election analyst Antony Green. “Maxine McKew will win it on the primary vote. If the country doesn’t want Mr Howard as prime minister why would the people of Bennelong want him as the sitting member?”
Ltep. I agree. Journo’s bemoan the lack of scrutiny and detail from Rudd, but then when he gives his 5 point plan he’s accussed of hubris. I mean do they want him to give detail or not. Otherwise he just says I wont say anything until the results are known, and no scrutiny occurs. Dumb as* journo’s.
I doubt that Rudd failing to appear on Insiders will do him much immediate damage with most of the electorate, and I’m sure his appearances on Rove and the like will help him.
That said, people like me get irritated by his general avoidance of this sort of situation. Certainly pushes me more forcefully into the Greens camp and makes my senate vote for them a certainty.
Ultimately I think it will hurt Rudd if he continues to avoid such things. Gillard is an immensely competent “second in command” and with the visibility of government will, I suspect, become a very popular figure amongst Australian voters and political commentators. Given the effectiveness with which she deals with such things he may later regret leaving all the hard stuff to her!
Cheers
Rod
Darn,
I think i conceded last month on Rudd winning. Having said that I must warn you I do have a notorious tendency to do a Mackerras and pick the loser.
424 Ashley, only 5 days until we find out who actually wins Bennelong. Of course, if it’s close, it could be another week or 2.
Newspoll has tended to be good for Labor after Labor does something positive. The campaign launch was definitely a plus for Labor; that should improve Rudd’s preferred PM numbers. In Newspoll, PPM gap has been highly correlated with primary vote gap, so if Rudd’s PPM goes up, Labor’s primary should also go up. My prediction: 56-44
ESJ… I hope you didn’t, in 2004 say anything like
“By this time in a few months Latham will be moving in to the Lodge”. or
“There’s no doubt about it. Latham will be PM before the year is out”
How embarassing. Although I remember casually tuning in to the election night coverage on the ABC thinking to myself… Howard can’t possibly win this. Whoops.
Rod 431
I completely agree. Only the Insiders panel will feel miffed by Rudd’s non appearance. It exposes their low level of importance in the MSM. Lets face it, not even everyoen who posts here woudl always watch it, what chance the average person on a Sunday morning? Even the rest of the MSM won’t care – overall Rudd has given far more media access than Howard in the campaign, which is why some of teh journos are starting to get fed up with Howard. Six weeks on buses and planes for virtually nothing.
I honestly don’t see the 2PP being any higher than 54. This seems to be the number everyone is settling on. The result should most likely be between 53 and 54%
No LTEP, but I couldnt believe PJK lost in 1996 I really thought there was no way people would vote PJK out for Howard.
424 Ashley-How many Bennelong polls do we need?
Um, one more!
There’s only been one during the election campaign, and because it was “only” 52-48 no one was completely writing Howard off (despite all the polls before the campaign).
The betting markets on Bennelong have only come in slightly recently because of the state wide trend showing up in the newspoll and galaxy marginal polls.
I want to see one more poll, this week, showing everyone that Howard is going to lose. I just think it would be lots of fun. Even with a 52-48 result people would have to admit that Howard is more likely than not to lose his seat.
435 Socrates- I certainly don’t watch it. I can’t think of anything worse than publicity hungry journalists trying to look clever. It’s not as if they have anything intelligent to say in their articles so why would getting them together be any better. In fact, until this campaign I didn’t even know it existed.
The photo in the age today of Gillard is by far the best I’ve seen:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/nowhere-to-hide/2007/11/18/1195321608631.html
She is a really nice person. She came to one of our committee meetings when she was health minister. She was pretty good, but didn’t nail all the questions.
Diogenes 439 – exactly. And we are probably more interested than most people. So how many viewers does that leave? Its not exactly a top-ten rated program.
381 Edward StJohn – Sorry Edward I diidn’t see your reference to me there until now. Ignoring a negative campaign that is not working and presenting your own negative campaign that massages a perception already out there and so is potent is, in my mind, not a mistake but a bloody good move. No need to waste resouces is there?
LTEP, I thought the 2004 election would be close. The problem with the polls in 2004 was that they over-estimated the flow of prefs to Labor; the primaries were generally accurate. This time I’m predicting a Ruddslide. I’m not certain yet, of course, but this time Labor’s primary has been well ahead of the Coalition’s in every poll since Rudd became leader, and the Greens prefs will help Labor.
I don’t think we’ll know about Wentworth until the night, or maybe a week later.
No-one has commented on a very short bit in Rudd on Rove last night. To the question Clinton or Obama, he said Clinton. I found that disappointing but not surprising. Rudd really is very pragmatic but doesn’t seem very inspiring.
Centaur,
Despite my comments on Insiders’ non-importance, I agree with the story – Gillard performed well on teh show, adn indeed has done so throughout the campaign, easily winning her televised debate too. In fact, I think teh Labor leadership team – Russ, Swan and Gillard, all deserve medals for this campaign. They have all worked hard, been positive, united, not got distracted, and even when others have slipped up, they have attacked the Liberals sufficiently well that it hasn’t stayed in headlines for long. They have won the campaign hands down.
In that regard, Labor does now have a credible leadership team, and the Coalition does not. The reputation of several Liberal leadership aspirants is in tatters. Probably Brough and Turnbull are the only ones to come through with reputation intact, and they may both lose anywatheir seats anyway. In the extraordinary event that Labor does not win the election on Saturday, it will be so close that, with Howard gone and Costello undermined, they will surely not win again without a generational change of their candidates.
Is Rod
Rod Cameron?
With the ALP looking likely to romp it in, I think the media has an obligation to start asking some very hard questions of Rudd – not to allow him to stage manage his time in Government like the state premiers and one T. Blair.
The Insiders thing is probably just good strategy – but it’s natural that progressives are starting to get a bit edgy about just how conservative a Rudd government would be.
Whatever your political views, consider voting Green in the Senate people – there’s nothing good that comes out of one party controlling both houses. And that goes for wet/socially liberal Liberals too, forget your party’s ridiculous assault on the Greens and consider them as a viable check on power.
MGM 444
I don’t think we’ll know about Wentworth until the Court of Disputed Returns makes a ruling.
I interpreted Rudd’s Clinton comment to be who he thought would be the democrats nominee. The question was simply, Clinton or Obama?
I don’t believe that he was expressing a personal preference as to do so would be to contravene his long standing policy not to get involved in US politics.
@430 Middle man
Journalists hate Rudds avoidance?
What do ‘Journalists’ and the ‘public’ think of Howard’s non answers, where he spins everythign out of utter perspective and then answers a different question entirely? All he does is reframe the question to suit him – EVERYTIME.
So the reality is – until Rudd learns how to do the same he should go the way of the acolyte?
I mean come ON.
Did anyone hear the Centrebet guy (cant remember his name) on News radio this morning?
He was speaking about the volume of money going towards Labor over the last 48 hours. He also noted that the individual seat betting was starting to move into line with the national.
He all but called it for Labor
Guess what girls – Rudds no show on Insiders yesterday is todays fish and chip wrapping- get over it! Spending time racking over these coals is bit like speculating about how many political promises you can fit on the pate of a balding PM.
Back down at planet earth I’m marginally more optimistic about Cornes in Boothby than Mathew Sykes. I think that Cornes is a better than even money chance and at $3 is a better value bet than Hansin in Sturt $2.40. Cornes’ shortcomings as a candidate are offset by Southcotts lackluster image and Hansins stand out qualities are countered by Pynes profile as a minister and general media tart. However Hansin has to wring an extra 2% out of the electorate which she may well do but I think Boothby will essentially be a Rudd vs Howard contest.
448 Patrick Bateman- Is your name really the same as the serial killer from American Psycho by Brett Easton Ellis?
Turnbull will hold wentworth comfortably I wouldn’t go getting yourselves all excited about the ALP’s prospects here. LOOK at the primary vote folks.
Newspoll Predition:
54% ALP
46% Coalition TPP
Greens primary up
Gerr. I agree totally with you. Howard loves to restate and reframe questions into something that fits what he wants to say. And for some reason journo’s have rolled over an accepted this. Truly annoying stuff.
Give yourself a triple. They HAVE been asking the questions for the last year. Just because you haven’t been paying attention isn’t Rudd’s fault.
While appreciating Patrick Bateman’s (448) comments that Rudd should be scrutinised, I think the focus on the Liberals is still entirely valid. Last time I checked, they were still the goverrnment, and still responsible for the current interest rates mess. Rudd hasn’t made any “non-core promises” yet.
I have questions for both Howard and Costello:
If they win on Saturday (they still say they might), they will still have a majority in the Senate, hence no excuses not to act. They have promised over $65 billion (!) in spending during the campaign, but inflation is going up and the Reserve Bank has warned about spending. Will they deliver all their promises? If so, will inflation and interest rates continue to rise? If not, which promises will get dropped?
When they ask us to trust them on managing higher interest raes, what exactly does that mean? Can they be trusted to deliver their promises and raise inflation, or control inflation and not deliver their promises? They can’t have it both ways. Hence the coalition economic strategy is a lie.
Thommo, Richmond was lost in the ‘04 election on very similar primaries. It’s possible Turnbull will lose. I wouldn’t bet on it though.
Ok …… here is a scenario on Saturday night for all of you.
What if it is obvioius that the Coalition has LOST (i.e more than the requisite number of seats are going to Labor) BUT Bennelong hasn’t been decided yet.
Will Howard wait to concede the national race until he knows results in his own seat?
I hope not …….
“LOOK at the primary vote folks.”
Alas, this is not determinative.
To use one example among many, in 1998 Pauleen Hanson got 7000 more votes than the second highest vote getter, and 12000 more than Cameron Thompson, the Liberal. But the field preferenced against her, just as the Wentworth field is preferencing against Turnbull.
Once preferences were counted, Thompson beat her by 5000 votes.
Turnbull may just get up on leaked Green votes, or he may not. It will be be tight.
“Andrews is saying if the government is re-elected it change the temporary work visas to stop them being used for sex workers.”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Govt-to-ban-visa-holders-from-sex-work/2007/11/19/1195321651125.html
Are the libs worried that good aussie christians may be visiting Asian sex workers, is this some sort Exclusive Brethren thingy, we decide who you have sex with.
The Bulletin’s Chris Hammer gives his take on the Galaxy poll and how the poll has completely missed being Labors launch in Qld and South Australia, compared with NSW and Vic being poll on the day of or after the launch.
Chris Hammer says-
“I was looking for to get some perspective back after more than a week travelling with Kevin Rudd.
What a pity then it’s so flawed.
The problem lies with the dates the polls were taken.
For example, the Queensland poll was taken on the 10th and 13th of November. The 10th was last Saturday, before the two campaign launches, so it’s of historic interest only. The 13th is worse – that’s the day after John Howard’s launch, but the day before Kevin Rudd’s launch.”
http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/opinion_poll_flaws_muddy_the_waters.htm
I agree with Spiros.
Wentworth will be decided by how strongly Greens preference flow to Labor. For Turnbull to be safe, he would probably need around 47% of the primaries. Anything less than 45% and he’s most likely stuffed.
Over the weekend I spoke to a staffer involved in Julia Mason’s campaign in Goldstein. Andrew Robb holds the seat by around 10%.
Labor expects to do very well in the suburbs running through the middle of the seat (Carnegie, Ormond, McKinnon, Bentleigh and Highett). The Libs strangle hold on Beaumaris and Black Rock is firm. Cheltenham is a bit of a mixed bag.
Brighton is the interesting one as it is one of Melbourne’s richest suburbs (2nd?) but there has been some movement towards the ALP on social issues (Iraq, Haneef etc). So likely to be some weakening (5%?) in booths in Brighton.
10% is a big ask and they probably won’t get there, but they are expecting to push Robb to the wire. Its the sort of seat that won’t be decided on the night but still likely to go to the Libs once preferences are sorted / postal votes etc.
Still its a good sign that the occassional seat such as this will throw up a surprise.
T’was happy to add to the Rove ratings. I didn’t catch Insiders but read the transcript. Its obvious even there that La Gillard had Barrie for breakfast – particularly the line about Baz ‘behaving like a jilted lover’.
Julie 461, that would indeed be “an inconvenient truth”. I wonder which journalist will be game to ask the question first. Swapping fame for any chance of ever getting a job at the Oz.
Lets ask some more interesting questions – anyone heard from office equipment hire firms in Canberra how the paper shredder rentals are going? I’d bet there are a lot of people desperately destroying documents right now. There’s another way to measure the chance of Rudd winning – survey the garbage trucks coming out of PMC and measure the tonnage of shredded paper removed per day. To think of those poor brave loyal, liberal lackies working late hours all this week “preparing for the transition”. I do hope they sleep well
I’m beginning to suspect that this Focus on Australia ad may be the first stirrings of the Exclusive Brethren (aka Australia’s Taliban). They seem to have been awfully quiet so far and I always thought they’d show their hand towards the end of the campaign. It’s just about sleazy ads time I reckon.
I’m interested in politics and I don’t think I’ve watched insiders till this year….so I’d say 98% of people wouldn’t know what it is, when its on, who’s on it etc…….the people who do know are politically informed and would already have their vote decided……so not being on it is not exactly damaging for Rudd
Arbie Jay 461
The flip side of Andrew’s remark is that it means he knows the temporary work visas are being used for prostitutes now and he has done nothing to stop it. I guess that must be the skills shortage he was concerned about. Is this the liberal party policy that sits better with Christianity that Howard was thinking of on Sunday? What nice, christian gentlemen they are.
Talking of TV appearances, did anyone see Costello and Swan on Sunrise this morning (channel 7)…….Costello was rabid, talking all over Sawn and the presenters and just behaving like a 10 years old child, and this man wants to be our prime minister?…he doesn’t have a shred of dignity or statesmanlike qualities……….
Well said Pi. Ackerman is no more a journalist than I am rocket scientist. The fact that he is allowed airtime on a self professed serious political program is a discrace.
Wasn’t there a tip yesterday from someone that Newspoll was 54-46 with Green primary up?
Or was that just a stir?
Flash @ 356 said [Yes the populist approach is an effective way to speak to the politics-disaffected masses but it is bad news in terms of holding government accountable.]
Well no media outlet in this country has held the howard regime accountable for its lies, pork-barrelling and inaction.
The sad fact of the matter is that the Australian media is more interested in keeping a scorecard of political point-scoring than any thorough analysis of what politicians say or do.
FLASH IS RIGHT
Rudd should go on the insiders and when asked about bad polls say
‘ You know I don’t comment on Polls’
and when asked about a minster’s comment that workchoices strips rights, say
‘I have learnt not to comment on someones reported words they are often different in reality’
and when he Rudd is asked about the tactic of —- whatever. Rudd says
‘You know Barry I am not going to be a pundit, that your job’.
When Cassidy/Jones/ or anyone SERIOUS ??? keeps pressing
Rudd answers ‘You have my answer’
YES FLASH IS RIGHT ! Better to go on these programs and pretend you are being hard pressed. The suckers will believe it wont they FLASH.
Samuel K. That is what I read on here. The blogger was hinting they were tapping the side of thier nose as they mentioned it too.
This is the first news clip of the day for today’s news bulletins:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22782678-29277,00.html
Question without notice:
When do the results of pre-poll votes become known, on polling night, or are they not published until later i.e. at the same time all the postal and absentee votes are accounted for?
Given that about 5% of all votes cost are pre-polls, knowing them beforehand would give an early indication of an electorate’s swing – assuming that pre-pollers comprise an unbiased sample.
Whew! 46 -54. I was worried till I saw it was a marginal seat poll. 42-47 on primaries. Taken 12-15 Nov so we’re still not seeing the Labor launch reflected in the figures. Howard is toast.
OH @ 477,
I thought pre-polls and postals were counted after the ballot box votes.
476 – Every card is just falling so nicely…
“Mr Rudd, Mr Cocks and a school official rushed to the girl’s aid”…..unlike JHo who justed looked at the lady on the floor like a stunned mullet and then walked off.
476,
Rudd rushing to the girl’s aid will present a nice contrast with Howard doing nothing when a woman was knocked over a couple of weeks back in the media scrum at a shopping mall he was visiting.
red wombat, I think he actually berated her for being a union stooge.
481 Nice contrast isn’t it? I’m sure a lot of people will make the connectioneven if subconsciously.
“just”
Further to 477: pre-polls could be _spatially_ unbiased, but maybe not temporally. In other words early electors would have made their decisions based on incomplete information, compared to everybody else who votes on Saturday. I wonder if the ALP vote for all pre-polls was higher in ‘04, given that none would have seen the handshake moment?
477 yes teh postals come later. They are generally thought to favour the incumbent member, who often gets staff to post out forms etc to help people. They often also include a fair proportion of aged or infirm in any places where there are large nursing homes, and that would tend to favour the coalition. Ini both cases, I would expect them to mostly favor the coalition, by a slight margin. But I’m not a pseph, maybe Poss or William could comment.
Actually the Senator who was with JWH at the time kicked the women in the head when no one was looking.
Re 476,
Swing Lowe Says:
from the story –
At least Rudd went to her aid, he didn’t walk away and leave her like someone else we know did in Perth …….
Too right ESJ. I have no problem with falling, but maybe do it outside.
ESJ
Yes I’m sure Howard is a humble humanitarian at heart. Remind me again which night of the week he lets the homeless into Kirribilli for a hot meal Janet whips up?
488
Edward StJohn Says:
November 19th, 2007 at 1:18 pm
Actually the Senator who was with JWH at the time kicked the women in the head when no one was looking.
I think, when it comes out, that you will find that what the Senator did to the lady was a lot more sordid. Look for this to all come out Thursday around lunch time.
Update on Portlandbet:
Labor 80 – Coalition 68 – Independents 2:
http://betelection.com/elections/?p=73
This is part of what I said @ 473.
Handshakes and fainting/falling women have nothing to do with what makes one person better or worse than another as an elected representative. The media however will say that it “looks good” for Rudd. So what?
Thats just a stupid thing to say Socrates. Oh yeah and you really think Rudd went to that girls aid for anything else other than a Photo Opportunity?
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/iraqi-footballers-can-stay–for-now-andrews/2007/11/19/1195321662469.html
‘Iraqi footballers can stay – for now: Andrews’
Skill levels need to be adequately tested, as well as willingness to wear green and gold.
Re Newspoll – it seems to have been counter-intuitive lately.
True it is a lot of these polls we’ve seen lately haven’t taken the Labor launch into account, but then I’m always worried re. the electorate, having seen both launches, taking the bikkies on offer rather than think big picture.
As well received as his launch was, isn’t that the risk Rudd is taking?
489,
Perth should read “Penrith” …. sorry
Just love the Libs………..there ALWAYS has to be something in it for yourself before you do any good!
345 – The problem for the Greeens, though, is if Labor keeps them completely on side ie. run with many of their main issues, then why vote for the Greens. The Greens vote comes from Greens issues being imprtant to the electorate but not fully embraced by the major parties
Well you got me there too K Jin.
The Senator got her details from the security details, put in a call to “our” people at the ATO – she should be getting her desk audit letter about now …
Sigh, here’s a ‘negative’ story for Rudd that invariably will be in the TV news bulletins as well:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/rudd-dodges-garrett-question/2007/11/19/1195321665312.html
Someone flagged this earlier.
Anyone noticed the way that today’s media narrative is all about the election “going down to the wire”?
Lib spin-monkeys everywhere are really going for broke pushing their baloney about it being a close contest. Of course, journalists are now duly reporting this as universally accepted truth; not just Fran Kelly who couldn’t take a political temperature if it was stuck up her backside, but even the regular ABC news reports.
Won’t do them any good, of course.
I’m flabbergasted that the media pressure about the rural rorts has simply vanished off the radar.
People talk about “teflon Rudd”, but it seems to me that the government can get away with pretty much anything. What would it take to actually force someone to resign? Surely corruption of this sort is worth someone’s head?
Betamax,
It’s not totally one-way traffic in that regard. Check out Peter Hartcher’s analysis here:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/the-luck-stops-here-pms-time-almost-up/2007/11/18/1195321609223.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
However, I think what’s driving this are the results from the Galaxy marginal poll and the Eden-Monaro poll (to a lesser extent).
Swing Lowe -
William,
Why didnt you report the Zoo Weekly who would make a better lover poll?
That is a classic.
not so good for Labor
after last Saturday’s hike in betting markets that some bookies offers a “record low” of Labor’s odds. Lasseters $1.15; CentreBet $1.17; …
The betting markets has since swinged back to Howard a bit.
Coalition’s odds is now low to mid $1.2*, and the ALP is around low to mid $4.*
It’s worth to recall that in the final days of 2004 election, the odds was
Coalition $1.16 / Labor $4.6 at SportingBet.
Currently, SportingBet offers Coalition $4.25 / Labor $1.22
SL@501, I’m not entirely sure that is a negative. Garrett is a positive for Labor from leftist supporters, but seen as an unknown and a danger for the right who might come across as well as the unengaged. Rudd is just running the line he has been for some time (ie. the frontbench other than money seats will be worked out after the election) while having an each-way bet on Garrett. Doing this to Garrett also undercuts attacks that he is powerful, dangerous and will ‘change everything’.
Frank, I don’t reckon you’ll be able to get 1.16 for Labor by Friday.
Will people stop going on about Insiders & Rudd not being interviewed there.
The only journalist in the country who cares is Cassidy. No other journalist in the country will care because they’ve probably had the opportunity to interview him.
Most TV viewers have never heard of the show, let alone tuned in to watch it.
It makes much more sense for him to submit himself to more mainstream popular shows with people like Laurie Oaks (which he has done) & Laurie Oaks can be every bit as tricky as Cassidy.
Guys, get a grip of yourselves – nobody gives two hoots about this.
Just received a pamphlet from the Greens in our letter box. Higgins.
501
nya – this story is old and Rudd said Garrett was “fantastic” on Rove last night.
Rudd doesn’t want to name his front bench now. That would look too cock sure.
People always go on about the ‘04 ‘handshake moment’. I never paid attention to it or really noticed it at the time and I’d be amazed if it was really a factor.
It looks like Kevins’s wedge at his policy launch has snookered Howard’s plans for more spending this week.
Labor curbed Coalition spending spree: Rudd
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/19/2094546.htm
Mr Rudd has told Channel Ten his lower-cost pledges had an effect on the Coalition’s spending plans, which had been unveiled two days before.
“[Prime Minister] Mr Howard had another $10 billion ready to spend later that week – it’s quite plain from the background briefings to journalists,” he said.
“And because we took a responsible course of action in our campaign launch on Wednesday, we undermined that.
Betamax @ 502,
Much better this way than the alternative ie Labor victory a foregone conclusion. I reckon it’s just as much Labor’s spin as the Libs.
Frank @ 505,
I don’t think the odds will be as low for Labor this time around when compared to the Coalition’s in 2004 for the simple reason is that people are going to be more uncertain of the result when you have to pick up 16 seats rather than hold on to a majority of 10+.
If the odds do fall below $1.16, then you know a landslide is expected…
LTEP – definitely a factor. I saw it live and thought – that was really bad, but maybe no-one will think much of it. Then it exploded into an issue. Of course Latham would have lost in any case – but it made the loss worse IMHO.
ohh Pancho@507
what do you reckon?
Ltep, a very unengaged acquiantance of mine went on about how aggressive Latham was long before the shake. I never got it, but she was always of the (I thought odd, but it turns out pretty intuitive) oppinion that Labor was in a worse position with Latham as opposed to Beazley. I thought with hindsight that it might be people like my friend who saw the shake and had their final piece of information.
Can someone explain to me why giving sex workers visas are a problem? It is a legal occupation in most part of Australia. The industry is probably facing shortages as all industries are. As with nuclear Power plants, should not the market decide?
Betamax/Swing Lowe. i mentioned this earlier. when i got to work a did a fly through all the newspaper websites the consistent message was “too close to call”. seems on friday it had been decided. it appears they have gone for these high MoE polls. Newspoll should set them straight. I reckon it’ll be 55/45.
The biggest fear in this election is waking up on Sunday and finding that JWH is still PM, that is the greatest fear of a majority of voters, I will be doing my little bit to ensure this doesn’t happen, I say no mercy to the Howard government, lets make it a landslide.
Frank, I dunno but if there was one large bet over the weekend which had us at 1.18 7 days out, I would guess that a couple more might be in store from punters as well as supporters and people that like to play with money. And if that one bet brought the market in from 1.30 to 1.18, a couple more could see it dip into the low teens unless it is answered by Liberal backers on a hiding.
Garrett will be moved into Arts and Environment will be given to Albo, that’s my bet anyhow.
Betamax (296) Yes, I heard the interviews and Trioli’s usual disingenous tactics. She really is a horror, but I thought that Newhouse handled himself well. The point that Trioli didn’t ask Turnbull about the 7 or 8 meetings he didn’t attend, while attacking Newhouse for one, was well made by that lady caller.
On Friday she and Speers spent most of their discussion on Newhouse’s failure to attend this meeting and what a bad look it was blah, blah, blah. The fact that she gets her talking points from Sky News says it all.
The only consolation is that she won’t be around much longer, at least on the radio.
Swing Lowe @513,
oh I see.
thanks
Just a little reminder about what it will take to remove Howard from Bennelong – What’s your favourite number John?
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=FtptNEXWp3Q
501,
Don’t worry. That story won’t have legs at all. He has previously made it plain that only Gillard and Swan are guaranteed their posts. This isn’t new news, so no worries
Thommo #495. Yes, actually I do. What makes it so unbelievable to you that someone can do something out of compassion and without an ulterior motive? Oh, yeah, you’re a Liberal. Say no more.
Just cleared a comment moderation backlog.
Flash: My point is the same point you try to make saying Rudd comes from the same state as Sir Joh. It’s a nothing point, and the 2 men are completely different.
Lets not forget Joh is the man who took a gerrymander to the n-th degree and gave us the most corrupt government and police force in Australia.
thank you Pancho@519
Costello is not having a good day, he comes across better when he doesn’t open his mouth.
Costello struggles to defend attack ad:
Treasurer Peter Costello has struggled to defend a government advertisement claiming a Labor win on Saturday would lead to strikes in the airline and petrol industries.
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=326183
Regarding Wentworth, how many Liberals are out there that are still p*ssed off about him deposing Peter King in 2004?
And would they be willing to vote for one of the other 10 parties running in Wentworth and preference Labor in front of Turnbull? Or will they go back to form, given that they know that Howard is in trouble?
The Latham handshake just confirmed he was wild, stupid and untrustworthy – he could do anything. People already sensed this and couldn’t warm to him. He worried the hell out of many people.
I think a lot of Lib women in Wentworth will not vote Lib if for know other than catty hate of Lucy.
Although Greens polled 11% in Wentworth in 2004, they polled 4% higher in the Senate in the same booths (no Peter King factor). It’s not as big a stretch to 17% as you may think.
And there are lots and lots of Liberals who despise Malcolm T.
#477 – Pre-poll votes are in sealed envelopes and by law may not be opened until after the close of polling at 6.00pm on Saturday night.
Most of the pre-polls issued to electors in their home Division will be counted on Sunday and the figures made available late that day or early Monday (obtainable on the AEC website).
Those issued to electors from other Divisions have to be returned to the home Divisions for counting (as is the case with absent votes) and this swapping of votes between Divisions takes place around the middle of next week (It takes a lot of work and time to organise). Most Divisions will have these votes counted by the end of the week, or early the following week.
Pre-poll votes are also received from overseas locations. These are relatively small in number and usually start arriving during the second week after polling day.
AM @ 535
What I find so odd is the Libs perseverence with a negative campaign that has proved unsuccessful for the entire year. Why do they think it’s going to work now? And doesn’t it just reinforce the Rudd message that the Libs have no new ideas?
The problem with scare campaigns is that if its obvious they’re scare campaigns they are nowhere near as effective. With the interest rates scare campaign it was kind of fresh in ‘04. There wasn’t a huge scare campaign in ‘01 that I remember (I don’t count Tampa as a scare campaign).
Running the same campaign, and then a series of other scare campaigns two elections in a row isn’t really that effective in my mind.
There might be more dodgy Coalition financial news to report. This morning’s AFR says that the final figures for Coalition advertising spending (i.e. with our money while they were in government) are due out today. We already know they had spent at least $200 million to September.
ADL
The point of the sex-worker thing was the hypocracy of this government. They give sex-workers visas to come here on one hand, and on the other try to pander to christians groups like the Brethren, Hillsong etc about how pious they are. Andrews is a case in point, using his own religeous beliefs to justify some of his own ministerial decisions. Yet here he is the very Minister issuing the visas!
It is exactly as one of my favourite Arab sayings goes:
“It is always the one who most stridently denounces the prostitute in the temple, who is secretely her best customer.” Something like that. Apologies to anyone who knows the original if my translation is incorect.
John Howard comes from the same state as Ivan Milat. Make of that what you will.
Loved the GG’s shot of Sk8erBoy Vaille with the surfboard under his arm. It was captioned: Riding the Swell. But it should have been “looking down the barrel” or “about to get dumped”.
Fulvio Sammut (531) …a very thoughtless post. You can do better than that.
To ALL Bloggers ,
You have ALLOWED the Liberal’s to negatively use the term “Unions”
“Unions” are NOT lions or cats or mice
“Unions” ARE ORDINARY WORKING AUSSIES
The REAL reason Liberal’s dislike “Unions” is because the power base and the policy & financial base of the Liberal Party IS “the EMPLOYER” class (mainly big Employer’s
ANY increase in ordinary Aussie’s working wage is BY DEFINITION AT THE EXPENSE OF “the EMPLOYER” class.
Many middle income employees vote Liberal because the Liberal’s slogans of ‘free enterprise’ and ‘freedom of choice’ are appealing concepts , BUT this does not change the reality:
There is ALWAYS a contest between the “profit share” represented by “Employer Groups” VS ordinary Aussies wages share (represented mainly via the “Unions” )
Any feedback from Liberal bloggers ??????????
Got a huge liberal pamphlet in my letterbox in Robertson. Its big like a booklet and is inverse with one half of the booklet beinggo for groth whilst the other being the consequences for labor. Although im confident of a labor victory, i still have doubts in my head and they wont go until i see seats fall and a concession of a hopefully soon to be irrelevant prime minister.
548
Got same pamphlet in Cook on weekend. No pictures of Michael Towke though
Turnbull will win in Wentworth… probably just on Primary vote as well.
The only reason this seat was “close” last election was because ousted Liberal Party member King ran as an independent.
Can people who keep saying they have a chance in Wentworth please put money down on Labor to win there and stop wasting our time.
You are right David Charles. Extension from the particular to the general is not valid argument. My apologies to other Liberals offended.
@ 471
kat Says:
November 19th, 2007 at 1:07 pm
Talking of TV appearances, did anyone see Costello and Swan on Sunrise this morning (channel 7)…….Costello was rabid, talking all over Sawn and the presenters and just behaving like a 10 years old child, and this man wants to be our prime minister?
KAT,
Thanks as I didn’t see that program. However, it was the same situation over on Skynews Agenda Election program at 8:30, which the normally competent Helen Dailey hosts (she makes Cassidy look like the big baby that he is).
Today, Helen had retiring NSW Liberal member, Bruce Baird and Labor’s Penny Wong. Alas, Helen gave Bruce at least 8 or 9 minutes before Penny was brought into the conversation, and then Baird kept rudely attempting to interrupt or talk over Wong the rest of the half hour. Wong just stayed composed and made her points clearly and succinctly, so Baird got increasingly agitated and red-faced.
I wrongly believed that Baird was one of those John Fahey type of fairly good Liberals from the old Greiner/Fahey Cabinet, but he just spouted the same shrill fear and doom nonsense that you can get from Bronwyn Bishop on that program regularly. It was a real bad look.
All I can imagine to account for Baird’s off-putting performance is that, like Greiner, Baird has a bunch of company directorships awaiting as a payoff for going the mongrel one last time. Baird might even get a seat on the most lucrative one, a Tobacco company’s board of directors, where Greiner is paid a princely sum for snoozing through one meeting a month (despite Greiner being a lifelong hater of smokers!)
Penny Wong was brilliant and tough, like the other Labor women I have seen in the media during this campaign, such as Gilliard, Roxon, Macklin, Jenny George and Sharon Bird (my local MP). Too bad those “star” blokes like Garrett and Mike Kelly were not up to the women’s high level of performance. Hopefully, we’ll see a larger number of women in Rudd’s Cabinet if Labor wins.
Historic Election, just stop, relax and then consider the following: How much would it cost to print that pamphlett and pay for delivery? Multiply by the number of houses in your electorate. You are now talking a sum well inot teh tens of thousands. That is how much the Liberals are now spending of their own money (finally!) just on your electorate because they are afraid of losing. And peopel aren’t buying it. Be happy
And the tide that Vaile is riding is actually a ruddslide
Vaile better get off it like Debnam just did before he hurts himself.
Debnam breaks ranks on Kyoto
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/19/2094680.htm
Clean coal an ‘oxymoron’: Peter Debnam (AAP: Sergio Dionisio)
Audio: Emissions cuts needed now: IPCC report (The World Today) Map: Sydney 2000
Related Link: Australia Votes 2007 Former New South Wales Liberal leader Peter Debnam has broken ranks with the Federal Coalition, saying the Kyoto protocol should have been ratified long ago.
The New South Wales Opposition energy spokesman has told an energy conference clean coal is an oxymoron and nuclear power is not a realistic option for Australia.
The Federal Coalition has refused to ratify the Kyoto protocol on climate change and insists nuclear energy must be considered.
Mr Debnam says clean energy options are staring Australia in the face and the country has to grab clean sustainable energy strategies.
And now we see some happy news on the ABC, a story entitled “Vaile denies split”
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/19/2094649.htm
Who cares for the Narrowing, we want the implosion
Forget about the Election, THIS is the big news story.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22782200-5005361,00.html
Fulvio Sammut… thank you for the acknowledgment and clarification.
Socrates 555, the real narrowing that is happening is from Howard’s eyebrows, due to an increasingly intense frown.
Howard’s eyebrows can relax on Sunday when he rides into the sunset of life knowing that his legacy will not only have been rejected but comprehensibly trashed…
In spite of all this commentary, I still think Turnbull is going to win this seat. It will be the one ‘marginal’ seat that doesn’t go to the ALP.
Higgins on the other hand…
Hawkie, the working man’s PM, is in WA campaigning. He is saying Howard is insulting the voters of WA to say that the mining boom would end if Rudd gets in. He rightly points out that China won’t care who is in power in Canberra.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/19/2094798.htm
John Hunt
I’m still waiting for the scene of the AFP trying to get the keys to Kirribilli out of Janet’s hands. I’m expecting the look on her face when they know its gone on Saturday will be almost as funny as the look on his face. and I hope Rudd waits for Howard to actually concede defeat. After all, its the decent thing to do.
Will,
Hawke is right. The real people to thank for our prosperity are the management of BHPB and Rio Tinto, and the miners and engineers in their workforce, who have built us some of the most efficient mining operations in the world. There is actually quite a lot of coal in the mountains in western China, but they still find it cheaper to ship it from Queensland. And Howard has had nothing to do with that.
So far I’ve seen Labor supporters on this website admit Labor’s not going to win Eden-Monaro or Wentworth. Kind of makes you wonder how they’re going to win if they’re not going to win seats polls show them in front on.
Yet people think they will win Herbert, Hasluck and Stirling which polls show Labor behind on. It’s enough to drive you bonkers.
Diogenes – I have to return some videotapes.
I think people are missing the point about Insiders. It’s not that everyone watches it, it’s that they will expose Rudd to public, difficult questions which he will have to answer, and the answers will be reported even if no-one watches the show (much like things often come out on the 7:30 report and straight into the papers/other news services).
It’s like the story on Rudd which was in The Aged this weekend – no-one really knows what he’s like and what drives him as an individual, and it’s natural enough to want to know what you’re buying, so to speak. In the Age article Rudd was inscrutable as ever, even when Michael Gawenda was eventually given 2 minutes to ask him personal questions.
I’m not saying Howard is any better – I just think ALP supporters and swing voters alike should think about whether they want to give Rudd the keys to both the lower and upper houses when he hasn’t exactly outlined a personal set of values and attitudes in this campaign.
I for one would like to know a lot more about things like:
- what KR really thought of the Iraq war, and what he really thinks of the US alliance (he has Foreign Affairs/CIA links from his time in the US IIRC)
- what KR thinks about media ownership in Australia, and whether or not he is prepared to have a go at restoring the cross-media rules and opening up more TV channels to new broadcasters
- what KR’s attitude to civil liberties is, and what he thinks of the recent spate of nasty abuses of executive power by the AFP, ASIO and co
- whether he really will roll over on Tasmania in terms of the environment there or will finally be prepared to have a crack at breaking up the most corrupt and nepotistic state government since Sir Joh’s fascist regime
- whether he supports genuine multiculturalism in the face of JWH’s constant attacks on anything other that a cultural perpetuation of the White Australia policy
…and so on and so on. And of course the biggie, what is he really going to do with WorkChoices? I suspect some unionists are going to be mighty disappointed with what “tearing up” WorkChoices actually means. There’ll be no return to the 1980s, that’s for certain.
And again – it’s not that I think Howard is better on any of these things, but for those who think Rudd has had it ‘tough’ in the media, where are the answers to the above questions? (NB: Answers involving quotes such as “out the back door” and “standing up for working families” will not be accepted).
In fact, here’s that Age article.
Afternoon all-
just got the obligatory Green’s Look-alike brochure revealing that we really want to give heroin to primary school children and sell christian babies to slave traders or some such bloody nonsense.
Surely the electorate is too smart….then again Hoawrd did win 4 elections in a row.
LETP
Who in their right mind said Labor won’t win Eden Monaro? (Remember Shanahan doesn’t count as a Labor supporter.) Do they think Gary Nairn will hold on because of his personal charm and ability to compare people with Nazis?
I think Stephen Smith will be moved into Environment.
Socrates : I recently saw a clip of margaret thatcher leaving No 10 for the last time in tears. I truely hope to see the rodents leaving Kirribilli the same way.
Costello will stay in Opposition if Labor win but has refused to answer questions about if that will be on the Front Bench or the Back Bench.
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/19/2094663.htm
Costello struggles to defend attack ad claiming a Labor win on Saturday would lead to strikes in the airline and petrol industries.
http://stmarys.yourguide.com.au/news/breaking/general/costello-struggles-to-defend-attack-ad/1088654.html
Patrick Bateman, I take it you are one of the “soft ALP supporters” Sol keeps referring to. Just how soft are you? Have you ever voted for Labor in your life?
FC @ 556,
Forget Paris Hilton. I’d like to see a tape of Maxine McKew in a bubble bath pop up.
(The above comment in no way reflects the opinion of the author. It’s just monday arvo and work is really slow today.)
Socrates:
Post 21 on the Eden-Monaro thread reads as follows:
“I have been working fulltime on the election trail in Eden Monaro, and the feeling on the ground is good. These numbers are good, and seem fairly accurate, however Nairn is still quite popular in some of the conservative (almost redneck) parts of the electorate.
He has all but given up on Queanbeyan and Cooma, and appears to be focussing on Tumut etc (the new parts of teh electorate). In the redistribution he picked up Tumut and lifted his margin from 2.2% (at 2004 election) to 3.3%.
The YRAW campaign in Tumut is strong though, and is getting some great feedback, but not necessarily against Nairn. Making the link between WorkChoices and Nairn has proved difficult.
My thoughts from on the ground:
Despite all this, I think Nairn will win Eden Monaro (albeit with a tiny margin) due to the fact that he capitalises on peoples lack of interest (his pitch is all about just getting on with the job and not worrying too much about the politics of it). As a result of this lack of interest from a lot (and certainly not everyone) of people in the electorate nobody is really swayed by the rorts stuff, however the Nazi blunder from his chief of Staff is STILL resonating here, and the YRAW Campaign is strong, so there may be a saving grace there.
If Nairn does win EM though, I still tip that it will be a break of the bellweather tradition, and we will still see a Rudd Labor Govt.”
Go Sir Bob.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22782980-5005361,00.html
The member for Benelong will be the minster for Environment.
After all Rudd will need someone who can get away with zero action on Climate Change but make it into a postive.
I am very curious as to how they poll Wentworth – there are very clearly delineated pockets of voters with very different affilliations that don’t fall into the usual demographic categories.
I live in a “new” part of Wentworth – the pink area – and I still reckong Turnbull will win.
I was interested to see, though, that the only piece of pork offered to Wentworth during the campaign was $150,000 towards security cameras etc – which would be administered by Waverley Council – which means that Turnbull has basically ignored all the new parts of Wentworth which are within the CIty of Sydney (and for that matter Woollahra).
Sadly, he has also totally ignored the gay demographic throughout the campaign – he has shunned all forums organised for or by the gay community. Not sure why, since I do believe that he is quite progressive on social issues.
But I just can’t see him losing.
M
For anyone interested:
Nick X is blogging live at the Tele right now:
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/yoursay/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/no_pokies_candidate_live_blog/
I’m one of those voters no-one talks about, who is passionate and engaged but prepared to ask hard questions of my own side in the hopes that I never vote for anyone automatically or based on false assumptions.
I’m also in an apparently tiny minority who care about social justice and civil liberties issues more than money.
But FYI I have never voted Liberal in my life, and after the last 10 years wonder if I ever could.
My prediction?
Libs will hold Wentworth (many of the Green 1st prefs will go to the Libs ahead of Labor – more of a symbolic protest vote than anything).
Bennelong has a chance of falling to Labor.
Coalition wins election by, say, 10 seats, despite 2PP result of >52% for Labor. Labor will solidify their current marginals, and take chunks out of currently safe Liberal seats.
Rudd Labor thrashes the government NEXT time.
I’m baffled by the widespread belief in a Labor victory on Saturday. They’ll get majority of the vote, but no way are they picking up 18 seats (allowing for the two that will fall in WA, not to mention the odd surprise Labor loss in NSW or elsewhere)!
Patrick, you should have a read of “Avoiding Wedges for Dummies” (K. Rudd, 2007). I’m pretty sure it has a section on each of those questions.
Rumour in today’s Crikey.
“The rumour out Bennelong way is that the Exclusive Brethren have given their members special permission to vote at this election. Might at the very least help John Howard’s salvation locally”
Hypocrites for Hypocrites!!!!!!
That’d be the same Geldof who appeared in advertisements for Telstra?
Speaks for itself really.
LOL.
Andrew, which seats will Labor lose in NSW?
Patrick Bateman, I get you. I’d like to consider myself someone who’d not automatically settle for a vote for one party but I find myself with little choice. I just don’t know whether I could risk voting Liberal ever again given their terrible track record over the past 11 years on any issue not involving the economy.
Socrates – Based on previous posts I think LTEP will still be asking for proof of a Labor win even after the rodent concedes.
When was the last time crikeys tips got anything right or Kerr got anything right for that matter.
And yet in 581 you apparently disagree that Australia’s foreign aid is embarrassingly pathetic. Interesting.
No poll has shown a Coalition win this year. The betting markets are predicting an ALP win and have been doing so for a while. Based on that, I don’t see anything baffling about believing the ALP will win. If anything, I think believing the Coalition will win in spite of this evidence, is quite irrational.
So what are your reasons for predicting a Coalition win?
Good on you Patrick Bateman. Your points are all spot on.
We dont know what we are getting with KR, broadly speaking people like what they see (as they did with Latham) but he is certainly far from a known commodity to the public.
As to policy – KR loved Iraq (at least according to Latham’s book) and on WorkChoices its good night irene one way or another for the “unions”.
Andrew, did you that deNial is a river in Egypt?
Not at all. I’m just not going to accept criticism from a rock star who takes money in exchange for selling his image to promote a phone company which is amongst the worst abusers of Australia’s workplace laws and uses its government-gifted monopoly to hold Australia in the technological dark ages.
Ashley he did no such thing. He just scoffed at Bob Geldof being all high and mighty about it yet appearing on an ad for Telstra.
KT, Andrew’s overall belief the Coalition can win is not irrational. It’s still possible, however improbable. Whether you choose to acknowledge the slight possibility of a Coalition win (which is still alive, particularly given the doubt on swings in marginal seats) is up to the individual.
Having said that I’d still like to know which NSW seats Labor will lose. Paramatta?
More Infrastructure from Rudd.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/19/2094812.htm?section=justin
+ 1
Andrew @ 578,
once you make up your mind, bet your money on Coalition at BetFair (now Coalition $4.5 / Labor $1.27). According to your prediction, you’ll be 3.5 time richer
LTEP, I’ll rephrase that, because I do think I worded that a bit too strongly. No, I don’t think believing that there is *a chance* that the Coalition will win is irrational. Yes, anything can happen. However, to believe that it is likely the ALP will lose, or to believe that it’s baffling that a lot of people think the ALP win, is irrational.
Frank F if thats how you do numbers then I’d take your predictions on election outcomes with a kilo of salt.
For christ sakes people, Wentworth is NOT… I repeat NOT a Liberal Marginal seat!
Have a look at the vote for Turnbull in 2004, which was 42%.
Then add the Independent King’s who wasn’t too happy being kicked out as Lib member for the seat…. 18%
Put these two Lib votes together and what do you get? 60%
Minus a 10% swing to Labor/Greens and what do you have? Turnbull sitting on a sweet 50% Primary vote.
This seat is not a marginal Lib seat, the mathematics just aren’t there and anyone who thinks this seat is going to be in the Labor camp after the election is BONKERS.
#594
Exactly what I was going to say to Andrew. If he thinks that there is any way in hell for the ALP to get 52% or greater TP nationally and still lose, he whould lay down his hard-earned at the fantastic odds they are for the Coalition. Oh that’s right: The odds wouldn’t be that LONG on the coalition unless the big money really rated Howard’s chances as low.
The big money doesn’t lie Andrew.
LaborVoter… so this poll is just plain wrong then?
Andrew: While it’s possible for a government to win on a TPP of even 25%, the likelihood of them winning on less than 48% is ridiculous. On top of that you’re saying they would have a 10 seat majority on less than 48% TPP is again very unlikely.
In 1998, the TPP was 50.98% to the ALP, and the difference was 13 seats (taking in to account the 1 IND afterwards, the government had a majority of 12 seats). Also in that election, the ALP won 18 seats and lost none. They only need to win a net of 16 to win a majority. There is no ONP like the 98 election either, which affected the swings in key marginals.
Even the commentariat as saying the ALP is bound to at least get 13-14 seats. It’s to get those extra few, and to get 14 will most likely cause a hung parliament as we can’t count on Bob Katter, but 15 will give a minority government with the backing of Tony Windsor.
Your post would have made more sense if you said the ALP getting about 51%, but at 52% its pushing the absurd that they don’t win.
Again, while your statement is probable, it’s VERY unlikely.
Edward StJohn,
suit yourself, your denial is unimaginagle.
LaborVoter @550, I have. and at $3.05 its worth the 50/50 chance.
Think about Mr. King was, he split the *Liberal* vote. and at the end of the day, his preferences went back to Turnbull. If you believe that there is a hidden Liberal vote that didn’t show up in Wentworth last time, you are believing that there are Liberal voters who voted for King, and then preferenced Labor before Turnbull. Might have been a few, but what is to say the same people don’t vote for Labor this time, or vote Green, which is effectively the same thing.
So yeah, thanks to our preferential voting system, the 2.5% (notional) we have in Wentworth is probably an accurate reflection of how people wanted to vote, at least in 04.
The next argument is Turnbull has a strong personal vote. Probably so, but that strong personal vote is already factored into the vote in 04. As in, it can’t get *better*. I’d be very surprised if people as good for Turnbull now as they did then, pulp mills, Howard *** licking etc.
Then there is the gay vote. Those outside the community don’t realise just how pissed off some gay voters are at Howard. And that tide has been swinging further since the last election. Don’t forget also that Wentworth takes in new booths that voted strongly labor, but here’s the rub, people in those booths were free to not vote as strongly to Labor in 04 knowing it would probably not make much difference. My prediction is moving them to Wentworth will polarise them more strongly for Labor.
Then, you gotta consider the effect of the small parties and their preferences. Rightly or wrongly Turnbull is going down as the poster child for both the pulp mill and Kyoto. Turnbull won’t come close on primaries.
Then you have to consider the weight of the polls. 52/48 with a MoE of 3 is signficiant. And it isn’t the first poll either to predict a dead heat or very slight in favor of Labor. (Even the aggregate polls hint at at least a tight poll).
My prediction: It’ll be within 1% and most probably in Labor’s favor.
-moo-
It’s a conspiracy.
http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/two_murdoch_papers_endorse_labor_.htm
578 Andrew Says: November 19th, 2007 at 2:37 pm
It’ll be a landslide, and every poll in the past nine months points to it. Not one or two. Not some. Not even most. But every single one, and that’s about 90 or so.
I reckon Turnbull is going to be the lucky one, and that is just because his seat is marginal based upon the last election that also involved the independent (and ex lib) King. I believe it would normally be a very safe seat.
Bennelong, on the other hand. And North Sydney. And Higgins. And Forde. And a host of others are in the firing line.
The swing is on, and people made up their minds six months ago.
Don’t keep your rat poison in the kitchen cupboard.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22782831-12377,00.html
Place it in your nearest ballot box instead!
Dave from Albury,(way back), the media has really dumbed down Australia with the assistance of the current government, and you are right, hardly any of them deserve much respect. That Cassidy can chuck a prissy hissy fit on national TV is disgraceful, undignified, and tells us all we need to know.
As for the notion that Rudd hasn’t copped any scrutiny, well, it’s only partly true, but the other part is, ‘get over it’, this is showbiz politics, and the old Ringmaster has so tarnished the show that it was only ever possible to win by playing the same game.
I’ve got no qualms about Rudd’s strategy: he’s palyed Howard’s game better than the rodent, and deserves to win on that alone. But there is so much more, and we will see this country change, and for the better, under new management.
LTEP, sorry, but that’s how I read it. If Patrick means to discredit the man, but not the argument he was making, he should express it a little more clearly. “Says it all really” implies that Geldolf’s arguments are invalid because he has done ads for Telstra. This is ad hominem (if you’ll excuse the pun).
I think the ALP are more likely to net North Sydney than Wentworth, though I suspect they may fall short on both.
Edward StJohn Says: “…We dont know what we are getting with KR…”
We certainly know what we’re getting with the rodent though – no questions there!
578.. so much for maths education
Mad Cow
Yes, I used to live in Wentworth for many years – and now live in Kingsford Smith…but I wish I was still in Wentworth and then my vote would count for something ..
I have friends who live there – they say, look there is a huge green vote – true greens and then the wealthy people who in some ways have a superficial commitment to it, I hate to say it – its like its almost funky. My friend lives in Woollohra, and he says there are green posters in Queen St, Woollahra!!
My friends say its going to be close – its not in the bag for Malcolm at all. I hear that Lucy is becoming “shrill” because she is afraid of the result…
Re Patrick Bateman’s comments such as this @ 564: “And of course the biggie, what is he really going to do with WorkChoices? I suspect some unionists are going to be mighty disappointed with what “tearing up” WorkChoices actually means. There’ll be no return to the 1980s, that’s for certain.”
In Patrick’s previous post to this one, he openly barracked for a Green Party Senate vote, which helps explains why he’s attempting to create a bogus impression (ala Bolt and Farr on Insiders) that Rudd and Labor have not copped strong enough media scrutiny.
However, Patrick’s “biggie” of Industrial Relations is a policy area where we, in fact, do know what tearing up Worklchoices actually means..
Rudd and Gillard put the details out many months ago to a considerable lack of enthusiasm, if not hostility, from the union movement. They’ve already taken the hit for that with many “progressives”. I received an email from my union president this week critical of Rudd.
Now, as for a balance of Senate power going to the Green Party, I attended a local candidates debate held at Wollongong University a fortnight ago. Green Party candidate, Michael Organ, formerly the only Green member of the House of Reps so far, bashed Labor more often and vehemently than he did the Coalition because his only chance to regain that House seat is to defeat Labor’s incumbent Sharon Bird again. That’s fine with me. Just the normal rough and tumble of election campaigns. But I don’t think for a moment that voting for Green Senators means that they will be above the pragmatic requirements of politics.
The Greens are just as adept at political spin doctoring and playing power games as the major parties, which Green Party supporter Patrick Bateman has amply demonstrated with his posts.
607, if you want to get formally logical then you’ve got some nice inductive reasoning going on. Formally, your reasoning as to my attitudes seems to be based on the following set:
Premise 1: Bob Geldof says X is morally wrong
Premise 2: Bob Geldof is a sellout corporate shill who is not an authority on morality
Conclusion: Geldof’s view about X is not a morally correct position
If anyone ever deserved some ad hominem it’s that hominem…
588 Edward – As Possum argues, the problem is that the electorate tends only to hear echoes of Howard’s own duplicity in most of the Government’s criticisms of Rudd. My own feeling, for what it is worth, is that Rudd’s attractiveness lies in his quiet approach and moderate opinions which are the main factor negating the Government’s anti-union hype. He just doesnt seem to be the type you could connect with ‘union thugs’, much less strip joints. On the other side he is also prepared to show the human side of his personality (like Hawke) which is something Liberal leaders seem to find difficult to do. I think that will be an important factor in determining whether the electorate opt for change.
PM Feeling Lucky in Perth:
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/
This reminds me of a Clint Eatwood movie when Clint Eastwood said:
“You’ve got to ask yourself one question: ‘Do I feel lucky?’ Well, do ya punk?”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/19/2094915.htm?section=justin
Let me restate this another way.
Those people who voted for King who then preferenced Labor over Liberal. Are they real Liberal voters. I don’t think so.
So counting every King vote as an 07 Turnbull vote is kinda silly.
Some keep saying 16 seats is a big ask – it means that about a net 10-11% of total seats need to change hands, but this has happened in about a third of all elections since world war 2, so whilst not the most common result, a big shift in seats is not uncommon. In fact, on average about 8% of seats switch – there are a couple of biggies in there though – 1975, 1983, 1996: see the pattern
Assuming that the polls don’t shift much from the 54/46 TPP, I can’t see why it won’t happen in 2007.
1961, 1969, 1975, 1980, 1983,1996 and 1998 are the elections where this has occurred.
From the Readers comments in Perth Now Story.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/comments/0,21590,22782592-2761,00.html
Sheesh.
Edward StJohn Says: “…We dont know what we are getting with KR…”
Edward, if we take this argument to its logical conclusion you wouldn’t change governments, ever. Long term oppositions are likely to have a new untried leader. Fortunately, in our system of government, if we don’t like the ‘new bloke’ we can vote him out next election. That’s the check we have. So we shouldn’t be frightened to try someone new, given that the old one IS broken.
Bird #611
Lucy is definatly loosing it she grabbed the Greens table at the weekend and tried to move it.
Her war criminal dad (Tom Hughes) from the Vietnam war conscription days is doing Pre-polling in Bondi.
Those Neo-cons are now desperate, the working class tennements are revolting.
I just love how some of the brilliant minds in on-line forums can take a few words on a particular subject and extrapolate who you are, how you vote, and what you had for breakfast.
Thanks for your post Hemingway, an ample demonstration of why Australia seems to lack a “civil society” within which a genuine intellectual interest in politics is demonstrated – a series of ridiculous and childish assumptions to the effect that anyone who questions your own view or the wisdom of a particular stance is automatically a rabid member of “the enemy” (as defined on a case by case basis).
I am happy to admit that in the present environment I am clearly on the progressive side of the ledger. But if you engage your brain for a moment and read my post I am merely suggesting that unfettered power for Rudd is not necessarily something people on the ALP side of politics would want, and presumably they aren’t going to vote LibNatz or Family First, so the Greens are the obvious alternative in the Senate.
As for WorkChoices, you really are a true believer (in whatever lines you get fed) if you think that Rudd’s IR policy is in its final form.
Now if you’ll excuse me, I’m off to grow dreadlocks, take ecstasy and chain myself to a harvester to oppose the murder of defenceless wheat, in line with my blatantly obvious radical green tendencies.
Regarding the Liberal 2 way catalouge, I got one too and I live in Ryan. Yes it is expensive to produce and distribute and I was really thrilled to get it here in Ryan because (not that any is needed) that the LIberals are sh@tting themselves because they are in trouble in a 10% seat. Anyone who gets this brochure in safe Lib seats hold on because it is about to become Labor on Saturday.
Misty @608, nah.. I give North Sydney a 20% chance and Wentworth a 60% chance.
Shrek and David Toliner sing for their supper.
http://media.news.com.au/multimedia/mediaplayer/index.html?id=561
You conservatives are a crack up. You have got as much chance seeing the Dessicated Coconut doing ballerina dancing in a purple dress on the moon as winning the election if labor win 52% of the vote.
#515 LTEP Yeds I agree with you that Latham’s handshake was no big deal. I remember seeing it on telly, and wondering why people were trying to interpret it as a show of violence. It was certainly vigorous, but so what?
I got worried about Latham earlier than that, when I learned he’d broken a taxi-driver’s arm.
Why has there been no Galaxy poll today, does anybody know? This is the sixth week of the campaign and there have only been 2 nationwide polls from Galaxy.
LTEP,
No one is saying that the Coalition doesn’t have a chance of winning on Saturday. BUT, the betting markets are suggesting that the Coalition have about a 22% chance of winning atm – roughly the same the Latham had of winning the election in 2004 at a similar time in the campaign.
Additionally, no regular commenter on this blog has ever suggested that Labor won’t win Eden-Monaro. The post you quote (I believe) was from some guy who has never posted again – possibly a troll?
Re 583,
Lose the election please Says:
Pray tell why your seat guess was 78 to the Coalition then? Wouldn’t a non-Liberal voter have suggested a Labor victory? Curious minds want to know
Patrick, dunno what you’re going on about. I was just surprised that if you are a “greenie” you would be bagging what Geldolf is saying. Do you also think that Al Gore is full of sh*t? Because by all reports he is not as green as he could be.
Patrick Bateman, you don’t necessarily have to vote Greens in the Senate. You could just as well vote Democrats. Really advocating a vote for the major minor party is not vastly different from saying everyone should vote for one of the two majors. You don’t have to vote Greens in the Senate to ‘rescue the Senate’.
At the moment I’m still deciding on my Senate vote. I’m pretty sure of my Reps vote, but the Senate one’s a bit trickier.
I think if you follow the discussion in a little more detail the suggestion is rather that Rudd needs to be scrutinised in more detail because we are going to get rid of Howard… it’s time to start grilling the new guy and pinning him down instead of letting him get away with “blah blah blah working families blah blah out the back door blah blah laptops for children”.
I suspect there are many progressive/small-l liberals who have been content to see Rudd run a semi-small target campaign (me-tooism if you like). But now that a Rudd win’s on the cards, there’s not harm is asking a few questions about his intentions.
Is there?
#619
I don’t believe many of the pro-lib posts on news ltd blogs, especially on perth now. She’s probably a Young Liberal following orders to continue the propaganda war.
I got the same large double-sided booklet thing in North Sydney.
Patrick @ 633,
Scrutiny is fine. However, I would rather the scrutiny wait til after the election is over (and Rudd has won), just so to make sure that there is no chance of a last-week gaffe by Rudd.
I’m more interested in getting rid of Howard than Rudd – once Howard is gone, feel free to scrutinise Rudd to your heart’s content…
I appreciate that – I’m a below-the-liner (as I imagine most here are) so I’ll be doing my own prefs in a very state-dependent way, based on personal knowledge of some of the candidates and the state of play in my state (SA).
But as I alluded to elsewhere, if I don’t want an ALP double-majority, I’m hardly going to vote Lib/Nat in the upper house, and (with all due respect for a party I am very sad to see go) a vote for the Democrats is a vote for your next party in order of preference…
If the Wentworth poll is even close to the truth then turnbull has lost, as the undecided voters (anything upto 20%) those taking little interest in politics and making their mind up in the last week usually break 2/1 in favor of the national trend – ie towards Rudd. That ought to do it.
It is more than just local politics – Rudd is that nice safe looking conservative man who sounds positive. Howard is that aging grumpy man who keeps having troubles and did something bad with that WorkChoices thing.
Wentworth most certainly is a ‘chance’, regardless of the King thing. AND if you check Nielsen polls you will notice that from the last poll to the actual election the LNP usually loses some primary votes to ‘Others’. They will want their primary to be up before the big day.
Bennelong is certainly lost – every poll puts Howard in trouble and the campaigning against him is intensifying.
Newspoll should be colse to 55/45 all things being equal (moe)
Scare campaigns?
Up to 70% (insert number of choice) of beachside homes in Australia risk some inundation due to sea level rises under Coalition Greenhouse policies. It is likely that insurers will withdraw cover for inundation of seaside residences as risks increase.
The IPPCC’s latest report forecasts even greater sea-level rises than previously predicted leaving shoreside residences exposed to much greater risks as to frequency and severity of inundation than before.
Etc. Etc.
Of the 8 new polling booths added to Wentworth in the west of the electorate, 4 were won by the Greens in the Senate, in the just passed State election and in 2 the Greens came 2nd
Just for the “2PP” club let me repeat 4 of the 8 new booths were WON outright by the GREENS. i.e. the greens beat the LIB/LAB party.
More bad news for Howard.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22783451-5005361,00.html
Ok, let’s try is more simply. Is there a difference between these two concepts:
1. I like/dislike and respect/don’t respect Bob Geldof
2. I agree/disagree with a particular statement Bob Geldof made
Or, more simply, I can think someone is a w***er and still agree with something they say.
If you can spend a few hours working through the subtleties of that then we’ll be ad idem.
As for Gore I just wish he’d stop eating pies and accepting awards and start campaigning for the primaries to save us from the ultimate non-liberal, H-Rod.
the fall of wentworth to the alp signals the first of the inner city lib heartland to fall. long term trends say that higgins, kooyong and north sydney are also gradually changing. the greens will hold the b of p in the future in these seats.
Not sure if this has been asked but is there a newspoll out tonight/tomorrow?
I think Rudd is telling the MSM to go “Scrut” themselves.
Look as far as “knowing” what we are getting with Rudd it is a circular question that can be legitimatly asked much more appropriatley to the Coalition. When will Howard retire, who will be in his ministry and that of his as yet unknown successor (Tip is no racing certainty) etc etc? In reality there are more unknowns in the coalition than Labour this election. I won’t even start the whole related arguement of potential LIberal broken promises a la 2004 and Work Choices!
The election theme for this week looks like being the backstabbing and general disintegration of the libs as they head towards saturday.
Now that the media (for the most part) have accepted that the ALP will win, some writers are wishing to make their mark by being the first to report on the post election blood letting. Unfortunately for the Libs, it is still pre-election.
I am in the “it will be close but an ALP win camp”. But it will be a demolition if the Libs let the recriminations get out of hand.
Why I want to see blood, in about 100 words:
ABC cuts, ABC board, Alexander Downer, anti-terror laws, apology-sorry-gate, Aspirational nationalism, Asylum-seekers, Australian flags for school funding, AWB, barbed-wire, child-care, children overboard, climate-change (denial), Cornelia Rau, David Hicks, dental-scheme cuts, dirt-files, Exclusive Brethren, fridge magnets, gay-marriage bans, George Bush, government advertising, inflation, immigration detention centres, INTEREST RATES!, Iraq, Janet Albrechtson, Keith Windschuttle, Kevin Andrews, Kirribilli House, Liberal fundraisers at Kirribilli, Mersey Hospital, mat/paternity leave, ministerial responsibility, Mohamed Haneef, multiculturalism, native title, ‘never-ever’ GST, non-core promises, nuclear energy, One-Nation preferences, public hospital cuts, Pauline Hanson, Peter Hollingsworth, Peter Reith’s phonecard, Phillip Ruddock, plausible deniability, prisons in the desert, Pru Goward (ew!), public school funding cuts, reconciliation, ‘relaxed and comfortable’, sedition laws, Siev-X, sorry, Tampa, Telstra, ten-point plan, Tony Blair, Tony Tran, two-night promises, ‘un-Australian’, UNIONS!, university funding, values debates, Vivian Solon, VSU, War on Terror, wedges, Wik, Workchoices, WMD
He has been. Perhaps you should have paid attention to the last 10 months.
Can someone illuminate me as to how personally popular Teresa Gambaro is in Petrie? There’s an article by Jennifer Hewett in The Oz that suggests her personal support makes Petrie an unlikely win for Labor this time around, yet the betting markets suggest that Petrie will be the next QLD seat to fall to Labor…
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22781048-5013871,00.html
Kev is up for some major journalistic probing tomorrow morning, you’ll be pleased to know.
I’m pretty sure I heard an ad during the cricket saying he and the missus are going on Mornings with Kerri-Anne.
Probe away, Kezza!
Pi at 604 is dead right. Punters made up their minds six months ago. The bribes from Howard have not worked. Rudd has wedged. The election campaign itself has been a shocker for the Libs. It will be a very very comfortable win. MacPherson, Forde etc are in play. So is Hughes – and look out for Goldstein on election night. Tomorrow’s newspoll should also reflect the Libs rotten few days with the Auditor, Abbott on WC etc. If it does’nt it won’t matter – it will be more of the same.
“#599
Lose the election please Says:
November 19th, 2007 at 2:56 pm
LaborVoter… so this poll is just plain wrong then?”
Exactly. It overstates the Greens vote, understates both Lib and Lab votes and on the day even the “Greens” protest right wingers will probably preference Malcolm first.
I find it hard to believe the 18% King vote suddenly disappears into no mans land… it will head back to Turnbull.
648 Pancho,
LOVE IT LOVE IT LOVE IT
post of the day award at the very least. (surprised though it got through the censors though)
Patrick @ 642 [Or, more simply, I can think someone is a w***er and still agree with something they say.]
I completely agree with what you are saying.
I find it hard to believe some people are saying they need more scrutiny or detail from Rudd and/or Howard. If you don’t have enough information by now to make up your mind you never will.
Ok then… what about the Galaxy that had 50/50. Also plain wrong?
Rudd will be scrutinised when he goes to the National Press Club on Wed, with Howard going Thur. That’ll be the final test for Rudd, which I think he’ll easily manage.
I believe Newspoll will be released tonight. I would love to see 55/45 to stick it right up ‘em.
The betting stands at this exact moment:
- Betfair ALP 1.27 / LIB 4.50
- Sportingbet ALP 1.22 / LIB 4.25
- IAS ALP 1.25 / LIB 4.10
- Centrebet 1.25 / lib 4.00
Punters have shortened the odds for the coalition in from 4.60 to the present 4.25 with the bookies.
622 – One of the major difficulties for anyone trying to understand what is going on in IR in recent times has been the government’s refusal to release details about the impact of work choices and AWAs on the labour market and the economy more generally – this even as we enter the last week of the election with mutterings about Labor failing to meet the charter of budget honesty). My own view, based on reports by various economists of the experience of collective bargaining since its introduction by Labor, and my own experience as an employee in a large organisation, is that collective bargaining is likely to produce much greater productivity dividends. However, until we get the data and do a comparison of the effect of AWAs versus collective bargaining no decisive answer is possible. If the Government is so concerned about ensuring ongoing growth in the Australian economy it should have released the data for analysis months ago.
Read an article the other day that they are having trouble filling an audience for Howard at the Press Club. Wonder if it will be filled by the Young Libs?
661 Red Wombat,
I saw the same thing. Waiting list for Rudd’s speech tomorrow and empty seats for Howard’s
Excuse if posted before, in one form or another. Too funny, Labor!
From Milne’s (top half surprisingly rational, before one sip too many) article, the Oz
Abbott disappeared for a while but last week returned to the forefront of the Coalition campaign, again for all the wrong reasons. He was caught on amateur video at a local electorate meeting seemingly admitting that Work Choices had stripped away industrial protections previously guaranteed by law.
Abbott argued about context and meaning but the damage was done; so much so that Labor posted the video as an ad on YouTube, finishing with a voice-over that said: “Written and spoken on behalf of the ALP by TonyAbbott.”
Julie @ 630
Funnily enough you don’t need to support a particular party to predict them winning. I think it’ll be close but still don’t see anything which suggest its impossible for the Coalition to win. Unlike some people I think Labor can lose on 54% of the 2PP.
Pancho, you need to turn that into a leaflet and post it to everyone
Oh no, I am the one who agrees with you I think…
Those saying “how could you want to know any more?” – go back to the list of questions and point me to the answers.
We’ve heard a lot of vague, safe policy from Rudd, sweet f.a. about the underlying, personal philosophies (supposedly) behind them.
And, once again, this is NOT the same thing as suggesting that people shouldn’t vote ALP on this basis…
LTEP
“I think Labor can lose on 54% of the 2PP”. !!!!
How???
Can we have some intelligent Tories posting here …… please?
The Political Brain
Difference between Glen, ESJ et al and the rest of us.
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/allinthemind/stories/2007/2089172.htm
Pancho, I was considering cut and pasting that and sending it as a letter to the Herald – gold!
Can we please have some really mindless, partisan and totally one sided Labor supporters posting here?
Oops we already have those in spades.
Great, Pancho!
Sending it out! Copyright acknowledged.
664 Lose the election please – just point me to the last Federal election where this scenario has played out and I will gladly agree with you. Otherwise, no way.
tdt, I thankfully am personally responsible for none of that list. But funnily enough, I am bloody sorry about it. Cut, paste, add and subtract as you wish.
Centre @ 659 – does the firming of the coalition ffrom 4.60 into 4.30 odd mean there might be something in Newspoll, or is it more likely a reaction tothe marginals polling and headlines about it being a cliff-hanger?
I’d be interested in hearing from those who follow the betting markets more closely than I do.
As someone else here has posted previously it’s possible to win on 25% of the 2PP.
We’ve seen evidence that marginals are not swinging widely and that Labor held marginals and safe seats are swinging 10% and upwards. Add this to rumoured large swings in seats Labor has little chance of winning (eg. Grey) and it’s not impossible that Labor could lose with 54%. It’s possible we could see a move of safer seats in to less comfortable margins, 10-12 marginals moving to Labor and large moves in Labor held seats and still and overall loss.
All of this is unlikely of course. I’m merely acknowledging it’s not impossible, and quite plausible. Come Saturday, the most likely result is a comfortable win for the ALP. Still, it’s always good to acknowledge the possibilities. To be honest I’m surprised we’re not getting more Coalition supporters acknowledging the possibility of a loss. Thommo, Steven_Kate, Generic Person, Ave It are all absolutely sure the Libs will be returned.
Ten ways John Howard can win
http://blogs.smh.com.au/newsblog/archives/dom_knight/016551.html
Galaxy Poll feedback FROM GALAXY
I rang Galaxy who said all states polling were started BEFORE the 2 Launchs
BUT UNLIKE Bullring’s article some were significantly finished before Rudd’s Launch
(SA & NSW) whilst Q’d they first said was was done on the 10th , 13th and 14th (Rudd’s launch day) and after repeating the Q’ld inquiry was told Q’LD was finished on the 15th
Maybe another Blogger can get straight answers
My take is Galaxy should publicly declare BY STATE when they started & SUBSTANTIALLY finished each state otherwise the WHOLE poll is useless !!
because if the “majority” of polling in fact has been completed in some states after Howard’s launch but before Rudd’s that State will favor Howard. (alternatively a state would favor Rudd if a state was mostly done after his Launch , except this did NOT happen at all)
Patrick
Sorry I realise after reading back over the thread that I misunderstood your intention. It is just that the trouble with being too critical of any one issue here is that the forces of darkness (JOM, GG etc) use it as an excuse to run with it a mile and completely derail the discussion. Like you, I am not a Labor Party member or workerr, and aven’t given my first vote to either side in over ten years. For me voting for Rudd is a means to an end – getting rid of Howard.
That being said, I have some concerns about the logic of the Rudd scrutiny argument. Ultimately, oppositions can’t govern, so you cannot scrutinise their record in government. Scrutinising Rudd on teh basis of past Labor governments is absurd; he wasn’t even in parliament then. I might just as well scrutinise Howard on the basis of Billy McMahon’s performance. You can scrutinise the sense of their promises, but that is all. The government however, can be scrutinised on both its promises and its record. Indeed, if the Howard government has a consistent record of breaking its promises, any new promises might reasonably be discounted, and it may be judged on its record alone. I would argue that on both counts, the Howard government rates poorly.
Hence, regardless of whatever reservations I may have about Rudd, it seems at this point rational to vote for him in preference to Howard. Of course, I may still give my first vote to the Greens and preference Labor anyway, but I cannot rationally see how I could preference the Liberals, given their ethical failings (Haneef, Hicks, Children overboard, now porkgate), economic failings (interest rate rises, inflationary promises, lack of long term investment), social failings (health, education, Workchoices) and environmental failings (Kyoto ratification, Murray Darling scheme farce).
Centre @ 659 – does the firming of the coalition ffrom 4.60 into 4.30 odd mean there might be something in Newspoll, or is it more likely a reaction tothe marginals polling and headlines about it being a cliff-hanger?
They started moving back in yesterday morning. I think it was probably a response to the Sunday Tele Galaxy poll which showed a closer result than the Newspoll on Saturday. The market really blew out after newspoll, and the galaxy poll looked a bit better for the libs so the punters snapped up the generous odds of over 4.5 that were on offer.
Gary Bruce, we can suggest Labor will win 100+ seats although this has never happened before.
We can admit Labor could possibly get over 54% of the 2PP although this has never happened before.
The thing about history is that it’s always there to be made.
ruawake,
Labor are going to win 72 seats with 100% of the vote and the coalition are going to win 76 seats with a TPP of 50.1 to 49.9.
According to LTEP.
Patrick Bateman @ 622
I’m surprised that you think my description of you as a “Green Party supporter” was somehow offensive. I intended it as a neutral term based upon your post in which you advocated a vote for the Greens in the Senate, which is certainly a very sound option, if only as an insurance vote.
My disagreement was with your assertions that Rudd’s policies have not been given sufficient media scrutiny which were similar assertions to what I heard from Green Candidate Organ a fortnight ago. However, I do take your further point that what voters have been told regarding post-WorkChoices policy so far might not be what Labor’s final Industrial Relations package turns out to be. This is, of course, equally applicable to all policies of all parties, including the Greens’.
I made no comments about your voting intentions in the House of Reps, your lifestyle or anything else about you because personal attacks distract from the discussion of issues. Nevertheless, since you feel mine came across that way, you have my apology.
648 Pancho
Brilliant
It is mathamatically possible, but you’re fooling yourself if you think it’particularly plausible.
Oops, forgot my blockquote in 680. The first para is a quote.
622 Patrick
don’t forget to stock up on herion for the kindergarten kiddies. You should be able to pick it up from any street corner where we are giving it away.
“We can admit Labor could possibly get over 54% of the 2PP although this has never happened before.
The thing about history is that it’s always there to be made”
That is true, but all of the empirical evidence available to us suggests that a Labor vote of 54% is highly likely. There is no such evidence that a party could win with 46% of the vote. Hearts can be scared, but your argument is irrational.
Ashley,
Absolutely, the media coverage.
But we should keep our eyes on the betting for POSSIBLE clues from here on.
Socrates – I’m not suggesting anyone change their (lower house) vote because Rudd is an “unknown quantity”, and I fully agree that (a) that is not entirely accurate and (b) it sounds like pro-govt nonsense if you’re not careful.
Nor am I suggesting that scrutiny of Labor’s past will help particularly – but in fact, that’s one of the things I’m interested to know more about. Rudd is curiously anti-Labor in the sense that he does not seem to represent the usual true blue, dyed in the wool unionist type which has dominated the party for most of its modern history. In fact, it’s hard to know what he represents from a personal perspective, and that’s what I want to know about.
What does he believe in? Does he really understand Australian political, social and constitutional history? Where is he really in the ALP stable? Will he rule by consensus, or will he be a Labor version of the Howard dictatorship, with all ambitious lieutenants eliminated or neutralised? Will he cling to power for as long as he can, or will he gracefully hand over when the time comes?
In other words, I feel like we’ve heard virtually nothing about Kevin Rudd the man, as opposed to Kevin Rudd the product (07(TM)).
Perhaps a better understanding of what I mean can be gleaned from this statement: I am deeply afraid of Australia ending up with our own version of Tony Blair.
LTEP – “All of this is unlikely of course. I’m merely acknowledging it’s not impossible, and quite plausible.” I really think you’re over selling it as a possibility. It is extremely unlikely to happen. I would have as much chance of winning tattslotto. Besides the evidence you speak of has been refuted by other polls. I feel you are cherry picking your evidence to give it more credence than it deserves.
LETP 676
“Thommo, Steven_Kate, Generic Person, Ave It are all absolutely sure the Libs will be returned.”
I suspect it is more the case thayt they are under orders not to admit that the Libs will lose, or that the sky is blue, until after the last undecided voter has cast their vote on Saturday. In the mean time they will be sprouting as many non-core facts about the polls as they can think of. To confuse the confusable, into doing the regrettable (voting for Howard)
KT at 587: I’m baffled because the commentators are forgetting the sheer number of seats that have to fall. I hope for a Labor win, but would be surprised if it happens this time. Parramatta will fall (Ross Cameron was a turn off last time), but it may not be the only one in NSW.
Frank at 594: I have put $200.00 up on the Coalition holding on. 100.00 on Thursday (When it was $3.18), and 100.00 yesterday (at $4.50). I don’t earn much so this is no small change for me, but I’m looking forward to having some extra cash at least come Sunday.
All the analysis I’ve seen offers very little in the way of confirmation of the actual seats that are likely to fall to Labor, apart from adjusting the pendulum and assuming a uniform swing. No-one’s going into the detail of the 18 electorates themselves that will have to ditch Coalition members for Rudd to be PM.
For examplem, even with Jackie Kelly leaving, and despite widespread belief, Lindsay won’t fall to Labor – too many people think they’re too good to be “working class” – they’ll vote for the Bosses’ party, thank you very much.
Patrick Bateman.
I totally agree with your point re the need to scrutinise politicians. However I also totally agree with Rudd’s declining to elaborate on important issues prior to election. I will also state neither Howard or Costello are any more open about their true intentions either.
Unfortunately, such frankness and openness is just not possible under Howard’s opportunistic and divisive politicking style, he has stifled all long term political conceptual and intellectual debate, such as climate change, in favour of short term advantage wedge politics.
Howard’s reactive politicking is the antithesis of open/forward thinking and inhibits such detailed informed discussion. You will never get what you want while Howard remains in politics.
Hopefully Rudd will soon bring to an end the era of wedge/fear politics and we can once again have free and open public debate and expression of ideas.
This is of course pure nonsense. They guy has been in the Parliament a number of years and also a shadow minister.
How long before people are happy? 20 Years? Reminds me of the old office work practice where every person used to be promoted on years in service rather than merit (thats all changed now of coursse).
AND what of Howard?
He should not have been elected then as he was a disasterous Treasurer in a disasterous Fraser govt. He was also before that an embarassment as small business minister and had to be moved on to special projects (selling uranium to Westinghouse). No way should he have been elected – a proven failure.
Now you have a 11 year histroy of a Howard govt that demonstrates racism, xenophobia, lies, deceite and zero accountablility as its method of government.
This scrutiny nonsense is just that – the press have had all year to find problems with his policies. AND they have his history in parliament to identify anything radical or weird about him.
What they were really after is another attempt to trip him up – they were not about scrutiny, if they were you would not have people like Ackerman, Bolt, Henderson etc on all the time who are all hard right-wing journalists trying to sell down labor.
Until journalism turns to serious stuff and forgets about searching for the one-liner or one angle to wedge people on you will not get Politicians campaigning on a total policy front. Why would they?
Rudd not knowing the tax scales was beat up into a major affair on behalf of the Liberal party – but no such thing was done on Downer or Howard who also didn’t know and got it wrong on tv AND Costello stuffed up a number of times; not evening knowing how tax scales were applied and not even knowing how much his tax cuts were. NONE were made into major issues the same way Rudd’s trivial slip was.
SO why would anyone campaign except in the presidential fashion when journalists and newspapers are focussed on trivia and wedges?
Patrick – there has been ample discussion of Rudd’s personal convictions and his philosophical views in the media since he became opposition leader (see the article below published some time ago).
At the same time I would have thought it naive in the extreme to expect to have a transparent window into every last detail of a party/leader’s views and policies and evenmore naive to expect that they have subsequently been enacted to the letter. Would be interested in your list of examples of where this has happened in the past.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/warrior-for-the-future/2006/12/11/1165685613376.html
ABC news had a bemused Ron Boswell complaining that voters were not responding to coalition policies: “We have everything to sell … everything …”
Get set for a monster fire sale of granny skins!
Andrew,
69 Opinion Polls in a row say you are talking rubbish!
Its quite possible that Rudd will have a heart attack before Saturday and the Libs will win off the back of uncertainty over Gillard’s leadership. Or some such nonsense. Yeah, its possible to lose on 54% of the 2PP but it is so unlikely that only the deliberately obtuse would allow for such possibilities.
LTEP, you saying that Labor can lose with 54% 2PP is absolutely ridiculous!!! Fair boundaries are used in Federal elections, and Labor is getting a big swing in marginals. Although the last Morgan tried to micro-analyse the marginals, the overall swing across the 22 marginals surveyed was 7.7% to Labor , and they had 54% of the 2PP across those marginals. That would certainly enable Labor to easily win the vast majority of those marginals, and many safer seats would fall too.
Message: don’t worry about marginal seat polling. If the overall 2PP is 52%+ Labor wins. If it’s 51%, Labor probably wins. If it’s 50%, the Coalition probably wins. If the marginals don’t fall, safer seats will fall. On election night, there will be some seats that people were expecting Labor to win that weren’t won, and others that no-one gave Labor a hope in that were won. 54% would be a crushing win in the single member electorate system we currently have, delivering Labor 85-95 seats.
Yeah, and it’s also possible that Aliens might use their mind control ray guns to make everyone vote for the Nuclear Disarmament Party or Jesus by return before Saturday and make us all vote Family First. A great many things are possible. It’s what is probable which is important.
If anyone genuinely wants to scrutinise ALP policy, afterall Rudd is only the face in front of the policy, then all they have to do is go to http://www.alp.org.au/policy/index.php and have a read. Not that hard is it?
Anything else is just noise.
Let me tell you LTEP, Labor has a far greater chance of receiving 54% TPP and gaining winning 100 seats than getting 54% TPP and losing the election.
Kina – for %^*#’s sake, NO-ONE HERE (as far as I can see) is saying that people should be voting Howard because Rudd is somehow an “unknown quantity”.
The question is whether it’s time for the media to stop letting him get away with sloganeering and appearances on Rove and stage managed school visits and start nailing him on policy and philosophy (and no, no pre-prepared essays for the Monthly, actual cross-examination in interviews and the like) – because frankly once he’s PM it’ll only gets harder to pin him down.
Pancho – bloody spot on (and alphabetical too!) – i’m sure there’s enough room to insert more -
In a political system where there is basically just a binary choice based on limited information, and granted that we live in an imperfect world, the selection is going to come down to the lesser of two evils. Sometimes, this can work to the advantage of the incumbent. But this time, it is working to the advantage of the newcomer.
People may not be “viscerally” opposed to the government. But this does not mean the electorate will not contemplate or welcome change. There is disaffection with Howard. This is undeniable: look at his dissatisfaction rating.
And there is a sub-text: Howard should have gone last year and will not last another two, even if he does win the election. People will not want to reward his obstinacy and, in so doing, guarantee a new round of leadership instability during the next parliament.
So the Liberals have messed up their chances. It is too late for them now, cling as they might to hopes of a last-minute-miracle.
Re 664,
Lose the election please Says:
Do you have the bar stocked up in case you are wrong?
#690
I am quite confident that is what we are getting. I am not sure exactly what we can do about this!
PB, Rudd is being given the benefit of the doubt by the whole country, not just the media. And why not? Howard and Co have enjoyed this benefit in the past and have abused it. It’s Rudd’s turn to show what he can do. The people are willing, even if you are not.
Slackboy (571) Judging by your chosen nom de plume, work must be really slow EVERY day. (Nice work if you can get it).
Not really, paul k. Any good risk assessor assesses all possibilities, not just the probable outcomes. I still think Rudd isn’t acting like they’re behind in their internal polling. If they were I’d imagine he’d be making much more drastic and dramatic moves.
Most people would’ve thought it unlikely the Coalition would win 4 Senate seats in Queensland at the last election. Yet there we go… with Trood warming the backbenches.
Julie… I don’t drink alcohol.
ABC news had a bemused Ron Boswell complaining that voters were not responding to coalition policies: “We have everything to sell … everything …”
I thought everything had been sold?
Just tuned in. Please tell me that LTEP didn’t say the ALP could get a 54 TPP and still lose the election.
Darn, sorry boss, can’t help you.
#639
Grumblebum
It is allready excluded
Here are some exclusions found in home and contents policies.
excluding loss or damage caused by:
the sea
tidal wave
atmospheric or climatic conditions.
landslide, subsidence or erosion.
Most people don’t understand that the inurance companies’s allready know the risks and have allready excluded them, have a read of your own policy.
Thats why I would not buy a property that is at risk from these types of events.
Did JHo tell this to the Koreans the other day?
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Coalition-preferencing-One-Nation-Labor/2007/11/19/1195321678988.html
711,
Ok, fair enough ….. what are your celebration plans when you are proven wrong?
Darn, read 664.
Nice that you’re here are their representative. And here I thought I was one of them…
Why not? Because until we stop giving our leaders “the benefit of the doubt” we will continue to fall behind other democracies in terms of transparency and accountability.
We should have seen ministers go, if not governments fall, over all of the following:
- AWB
- Haneef (and particularly Andrews’ attempts to lie and manipulate his way out of it, with AFP assistance)
- Iraq
- Repeated illegal imprisonment of innocent Australian citizens in our nightmarish immigration system
…and on it goes.
We’ll get the same treatment from Labor in a few years unless we start holding them to a higher standard now.
LTEP,
If Labor wins anything less than 100 seats on Saturday night I think you’ll be suicidal. ” But they’re only 60 seats in front ” you’ll be saying. Your posts are so depressing I feel like slitting my wrists after I read them.
Patrick
A valid question. If more journalists had been competent enough to ask such questions of Howard in 1996, he would never have been elected.
As for Rudd, I think you can work out what he values most. To my observation Health, Education, modernity in general, and environment do seem to be genuine values, as is global engagement. Fiscal conservatism is an obvious trait, but not really a value as such – its a means to an end; a necessary operating practice. Other issues seem rather less in importance to him AFAIK, even including industrial relations. This is not surprising given that he has no background in the union movement at all, and started as a public servant in foreign affairs. The nerdiness is genuine (dux of school and 990 TE score; highest you could get in Qld I believe) and the poor childhood obvioulsy gave rise to a burning ambition. He seems to be concerned about social justice in terms of combating poverty, but doesn’t seem very bothered about egalitarianism. So its education and justice for all, not necesarily equality from a Rudd government.
I don’t think he has a strong idealogical view of political philosophy; I see no evidence of it. Mind you, not that many figures on Oz politics do these days IMO, at least compared to major figures in the past like Keating, Whitlam, Fraser or Killen. Maybe Gillard and Lindsay Tanner does in Labor today, but most of the true liberals (as opposed to conservatives) seem to have been exterminated from the Liberals in the Howard era. Bruce Baird was one of the last good ones IMHO.
Of course not paul k. The polls (and history) give you irrefutable evidence that I’m wrong.
Revenge of the nerds! Yay!
I love this election
Ok, I’m off to indulge in some retail therapy. be good while Im out
Wonder if the ALP will make an advert of this?
Prime Minister John Howard says if the Coalition wins Saturday’s federal election a future Labor government would never be able to repeal the Government’s controversial WorkChoices legislation.
Mr Howard has delivered his final pitch for votes in Western Australia, during a speech to the local branch of the Liberal Party.
He says returning a Coalition Government is crucial to keep the country’s workplace reforms in place.
“If we win on Saturday then the reforms that we have brought about will never be reversed by a future federal Labor government,” he said.
“They will become part of the furniture. They will become so embedded in our business and workplace culture that no future Labor government would be able to reverse them.”
If you take out the two WA seat results from that Morgan marginals poll, which had a 3% swing to Lib, I think the overall swing across the 20 marginals polled in the Eastern seaboard states + Tas + SA would be at least 8.5%. That’s in line with Newspoll in the Oz on Sat.
Can I just indulge in a bit of hypothetical maths?
Lets say, for arguments sake that the House of Reps is divided into 150 seats, each is 90,000 voters, totalling 13,500,000 voters altogether (I appreciate there is some variation, but bear with me here).
Howard could win the election by winning 76 seats with only 45,001 voters in each seat equalling a total of 3,420,076 voters preferring Howard in total.
This equates to 25.33% of the 2PP (or 3,420,076 out of 13,500,000). Stuff the seats Labor wins, they can be lost by 100% of the vote.
This means that to be sure, the ALP really needs a 2PP vote of somewhere in the vicinity of 75% vs 25% for the Tories.
I haven’t seen a poll showing the ALP with 75% of the 2PP preferred vote. There is some ammo for the pessimists…..
718 – I entirely agree with your sentiment about the need for greater political accountability. The probelm is how to achieve greater transparency when it is the politicians who have to ensure same yet it is they who stand to lose most from being more accountable? Seems to imply some sort of apolitical body as a watch dog ‘keeping the bastards honest’.
Its hard these days to work out who should be last.
One Nation, Family First or the Liberals.
Whenever I hear people talk about how Rudd hasn’t been exposed to media scrutiny I feel like I’ve entered the twilight zone.
On my planet the front pages of the newspapers every day have slammed Rudd for some “gaffe” that turns out to have nothing to it, accused him of being disengaged when he doesn’t raise his voice and being shrill when he doesn’t and blahblahblah and oh no here is a new scandal involving strippers or his wife’s job or who he had lunch with. They have trawled everything he’s ever said or done or picked out of his ears and eaten and they have thown everything at him day after day for a year and couldn’t break him. Then they say he hasn’t faced any scrutiny? It’s insane.
Media complaints about Rudd not being sufficiently put under scrutiny are indicative of a media grown fat and lazy through years of simply relying upon the Government of the day offering up access on its own terms. If they want to investigate/question/probe etc, get out there and do some questioning/investigation/research.
In other words BE JOURNALISTS not simply blank-canvasses for politicians to repeat their standard lines to.
If Rudd wont appear on your particular program, go out asking some hard questions about this to other MPs or public servants. I’m pretty sure if you did some digging and started turning up some “pattern of behaviour” of avoiding scrutiny and this got traction in the media, Rudd would be forced pretty quickly to come on your show.
Asanque, doesn’t really matter after you’ve given a higher preference to Labor. It’s not going anywhere else.
Thanks GB. Just read 664. LTEP, if you want to indulge in pure mathmatical fantasies, why be so pessimistic about it. The ALP could get a TPP of 46% and still win.
But back here in the real world, if the ALP gets 54% trust me, there’s going to be a lot of spare seats on the coalition side of the House when parliament resumes next year.
Thats easy Asanque – The Liberals. They are just as contemptable, but they are also in a position to form Government.
“The question is whether it’s time for the media to stop letting him get away with sloganeering and appearances on Rove and stage managed school visits and start nailing him on policy and philosophy (and no, no pre-prepared essays for the Monthly, actual cross-examination in interviews and the like) – because frankly once he’s PM it’ll only gets harder to pin him down.”
Come on can we please be serious and stick to the actual reality we are in. The media are consistently harsher on Rudd than they are on Howard.
It smells to me like you are seeking a paradigm shift on the eve of an election, well frankly you don’t deserve it.
I have complained before, probably here, definitely at ozpolitics before it lost the comments, that a lot of people who have put up with utterly ridiculous tripe from this government that has just been repeated by the media who wouldn’t admit today is Monday if Howard called it Tuesday CANNOT now expect Rudd to make everything good again. It is both unreasonable and unfair.
Yes now it looks like Howard might lose you’ve all rediscovered rule of law, open and accountable government, freedom of information, truth, justice and the Australian way and you want them back after 11 years of passive acceptance of complete lies and rubbish from this Government.
You expect Labor who collectively has been left in the wilderness for 11 years to now rediscover the things that have been missing. Well you don’t deserve them back. We don’t deserve them back. It is contrary to Labors interests to give them back. You’ve, we’ve shown no interest in repudiating lies, in repudiating racism, in repudiating the breakdown of the rule of law (it hasn’t even been gradual boys and girls Howard has been smashing it with a wrecking ball). Labor has supported much of this as have the general population. You can’t go back to the past.
If the future is all stage managed lies you have only yourself to blame.
Well it is not only Rudd then as they do exactly the same for Howard.
That is not a Rudd problem then, that is a media problem. It is up to them what they write and how they write it. They certainly let Howard skate through many years without deep enough scrutiny or accountability – but a they could have well forced it if they had a mind to.
If the media become unhappy with Rudd’s accountability or scrutiny then they can simply be as harsh as they like in the papers/tv/radio – and that hurts in terms of public approval. These pollies simply use the media as they are allowed.
#715
Thanks for that Red Wombat. I’ll try and fax or send it to the Korean and Chinese newspapers.
I can remember the ABC of Hawkes time was particularly harsh on the govt.
Patrick
You are correct to an extent, but I would make this point. Howard is not being examined to the extent that you are suggesting for Rudd, so why insist on a different standard? The media has been whipped into compliance by Howard over the last 11 years, and now that Rudd has worked out how to use the results to his benefit a lot of commentators are crying foul.
I (being of a optimistic disposition) think that with Howard gone the media are likely to swing back to a more third estate position. At least I hope so.
LTEP [Unlike some people I think Labor can lose on 54% of the 2PP.]
Patrick
Further on scrutiny, ultimatley though, I disagree with where you take your argument. Scrutiny is need to ensure that there are no obvious red flags to being PM (eg Latham’s temper, Howard’s long history of dishonesty, Bush’s draft dodging and years of alcoholism & drug abuse). But beyond that surely scrutiny is the formal task of the opposition, the Senate, the media, and all of us, while the government is in power. It is those systems that have failed us in recent years.
Isn’t it taking it a bit far to want to pre-emptively scrutinise what Rudd might do IF he wins?
Latest Centrebet. manually counted
Wins (= $1.30)
Coalition – 19
Labor – 9
Totals if current favorites win
Coalition – 68
Labor – 80
Ind – 2
Looks good!
So while the public servant Malcolm Turnbull keeps his job and runs in the election, he argues that the public servant George Newhouse can’t keep his job and run for election. Its called Liberal party born to rule mentality.
Only the court of disputed returns post-election can make a proper determination about the legitimacy of Newhouse’s nomination which has been accepted by the Electoral Commission.
It would be unfair to pre-judge the matter without hearing all the facts and legal arguments.
728 Asanque,
With the sins of the Liberals over the last 11+ years, it isn’t hard at all for me to work out who goes dead last
The dilemma is in figuring who goes last in slots immediately before 
[Speaking Senate here] I am putting One Nation and Paulines party in just before the Libs. I haven’t got my list at my fingertips but FF and CDP are going right in there too in some order. There might be one or possibly two others and then the Nationals.
In NSW, the Libs and Nats are running a joint Senate ticket so I need to pick and chose carefully to isolate them as they are all in the one column.
Brett Lee working on a hat trick (with the first ball of his next over)
ND,
The problem with your hypothetical is that equally Labor could win with only 25% of the popular vote under your scenario. The idea that a party would get 51 % of the vote in 76 seats and zero votes in the remaining 74 seats is so absurd that it’s not worth considering. Do you have any points to make that work in the real world or just more science fiction?
620
Gary Bruce is Julia Gillard. Can’t separate the facts from the Labor spin.
Lindsay voter
I would suggest emailing it to Maxine McKew as well.
A few weeks back I sent her a press release from Penny Wong that dealt with the libs preferencing one nation in WA, with the comment that they should make this known to the local Asian community. They were appreciative and said that they had done just that.
.
red wombat @ 715,
well, I’m not surprise.
Desperate Howard clutches at any straw to survive: One Nation, Pauline Hanson, Exclusive Brethren…
Big Tobaccoo suck up most of the failed Liberals – I expect that’s where Rattus Rattus will end up. However, less known is that Big Tobaccoo is sucking up loads of small goods type companies, mainly in the junk food domain and the fast food domain. Typically copanies that produce ‘addictive’ crap food. Some things never change.
#747 I emailed Rudd but will forward to MMcKew. Have just found out the Korean Daily’s fax. Now for the Chinese paper.
Speaking of JHo and the “Elusive Brethren” this today in the Age.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/pmbrethren-letters-held-until-after-poll/2007/11/18/1195321608622.html
From Simon Jackman’s blog (http://jackman.stanford.edu/blog/?cat=8)
Also:
Sorry some of my table got truncated so here it is in its complee form-
Wins (= $1.30)
Cosaition – 19
Labor – 9
Total if current betting leaders get up
Coaltion – 68
Labor – 80
Ind – 2
Paul K,
Of course the scenario works for the ALP, as does the possibility that they could win with 48%, or 47% or 46% or whatever. Unfortunatley, not many people acknowledge this.
I was merely identifying that the pessism of people is bounded only by a 75% 2PP and that peoplr can go on hypothesising about Labor defeat within that bound. It is only when the ALP 2PP preferred vote hits 75% that the pessimists will have nothing to work with and the old ’swing not being uniform’ gets put to bed.
By the way, you might want to work on your tact, cause it sucks at the moment.
Lindsay voter
Is it too late to remind people of Howard’s statements on Asian immigration back in the late 1980s? I know this might seem like ancient history, but the point is his euro-centric prejudice is long standing and personal, not just a recent counter to Hansonism. Some recent immigrants may not realise that.
I understand the call has gone out for as many Liberals as possible to particpate on these sort of blogs. It is recognised that blogs are increasingly informing opinion and the Liberals want to combat this in the last week.
Makes sense as this arvos contributions seem to be straight from Liberal Party central casting.
BTW, just watched Agenda on Sky, David Speers is a disgrace to journalism.
I think Rudd sees himself right in the grain of a long line of Labor leaders: trying to give practical expression to a desire to improve the lot of ordinary people.
He obviously doesn’t use the rhetoric of class rivalry or conflict, most probably because he doesn’t subscribe to it and certainly because it is counter-productive to the task of winning power.
But he clearly has a sense of the historical mission of his party. Labor is the unifying political force that tries to advance the material and social interests of ordinary people, while keeping the country pragmatically engaged and responding to the changes of the times. This has been the essential modernising role played by Labor for a century – a role that he seems to me to be most well-fitted.
Also I’m surpised at people putting family first or one nation lower than the CEC.
Though I lolled when I was voting on the weekend and saw the libs in my electorate put the CEC above labor.
746 Jim – So that’s your argument is it Jim? How about addressing what I actually said and explain where my logic is wrong. Oh, that right, it isn’t hence the crap you’ve written.
StanS
Yes, exactly why I pointed out previously the irrelevance of some individuals continually inventing obscure statistical arguments that the Liberals might still win with 48% or 49% of the vote.
Really, isn’t it pathetic for the Liberals to be hoping that you can win a democratic election with a minority of the votes? Shame on them.
StanS
Yes the Senator was most insistent as Twilight of the Gods played in the background – more bloggers.
Probable Labor win doesnt mean certain Labor win comrades.
It will be a highly qualified mandate for Labor though if they do fall over the line – about 80 seats as Jackman is saying. I think we will have the most risk adverse and cautious Labor government in history. Something like a de facto Howard fifth term.
Gary
you’re a bit angry arent you? Anger affects reasoning. That’s why you rarely post anything of any value.
This discussion about being under enough scrutiny by the media is virtually meaningless.
The media themselves are virtually meaningless, when it comes to determining the outcome of elections. They think they are all important, but it’s rubbish.
The majority of the voters, vote on impressions.
All the “scrutiny” doesn’t mount to a hill of beans. The ALP made this accusation of Howard in 1996, if only he’d been put under scrutiny, the ALP would have won. The truth is it would have made no difference to the result. The same applies here, if Rudd is put under more scrutiny………it too will make no difference to the result.
The voters are given too little credit and too much credit simultaneously. Too little credit in not being able to see through the “frauds”, and too much credit for understanding and digesting policies.
They draw broad impression on the parties, the leaders, and the policies, and that’s it.
The real irony for KR might be that like his mentor Goss he ends a record winning run and then ends up out in record time too!
ESJ 761 thanks so much for proving my point on post 760! Perfect
Good work Lindsay voter. Spread the word
The Libs have so many lies up in the air at the moment, its important to bust their lies as often as possible to the electorate.
Socrates: It is definitely not ancient history to me.
Howard’s support and stealing of policies from the xenophobic One Nation party will forever go down as one of the many stains in Howard’s abysmal legacy.
To be fair Jim Gary Bruce has never once mentioned Medicare Gold on this site to the best of my knowledge.
ESJ – ‘It will be a highly qualified mandate for Labor though if they do fall over the line – about 80 seats as Jackman is saying.’
That is not Jackman’s prediction. It is the current probability he has extrapolated from looking at the three main betting agencies. It has been moving upwards from about 74 a couple of weeks ago. Two days ago it was 78. It is not a stable number, or Jackman’s personal prediction.
Poor Gary is working on a peptic ulcer. He’s been angry since he made a fool of himself in Andrew Bolt’s blog last year. Bittle it up, Gary.
Patrick
I agree with a lot that you’re saying. There’s two realities of modern politics though – one is about substance and the other is about tactics. Rudd is playing a chess game with Howard in the pressure cooker of an election campaign in the face of a media which is almost without exception petty, nasty, prejudiced and mediocre .
As has been mentioned elsewhere the tories always get an easy ride from the establishment/msm cos essentially they do the bidding of the big end of town. Those partys (ostensibly) of the left – which nowadays means those that don’t launch pogroms on the union movement – are always up against it in terms of proving their legitimacy. Labor have to play a very smart game to avoid the traps that are set. A legacy of the Howard years is that a lot of those traps unfortunately are to do with anything vaguely out of the left wing song book – social equity like schools funding, excessive pandering to minorities etc. Politics is increasingly becoming the art of saying nothing, offending no one. This is particularly the case when you’ve been given the golden fleece of workchoices. Really it all becomes about defence – holding off the hyienas in the press and the liberal party long enough in order to get across the line.
With regard to politics Ive always been able to reconcile my pragmatic side with my principals and I think a lot of Labor Supporters are the same. Sometimes it goes wrong and you get the dogs breakfast that is the NSW Labor party. But you just have to accept that Rudd is not going to pour forth his feelings and thoughts on all the matters near and dear to labor supporters. He cant afford to . Change when it comes will be incremental.
If you want to see something of what Rudd stands for though, read the essay he wrote for the quarterly magazine last year (or 2005). In it he talks about social democracy, social justice and how neo-liberalism has pushed the market line to the point where humans get left behind. Its pretty impressive. Take it from me, Rudd has oodles of intellectual substance and I think you’ll see that in the longer term. Hopefully. At the very least you won’t have to endure the rodent any longer.
#755
Socrates, the Asians in Bennelong have not forgotten.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/howard-losing-the-koreans-and-chinese/2007/11/18/1195321609232.html
Is that the prediction about the prediction or the prediction alone Pancho?
LTEP isn’t a Liberal but what kind of system would we have that allowed one party to get 54% TPP and still lose? Fortunately it has never happened, although I reckon Bjelke – Peterson and Payford in SA probably won a couple of elections with well under 50% TPP with their gerrymanders.
ESJ – statistical analysis, not prediction.
To do that ESJ, he’d need to invent a time machine and travel back to 1963 and defeat Mr Menzies. Kevin ‘63 shirts would go down pretty well.
Speaking of which. I’ve seen lots of people wearing Kevin ‘07 shirts down at the local Woolworths recently.
771 Lindsay voter
Good to hear. His pleading to that Korean church is about as genuine as his smile.
Yes LTEP I agree if the Libs win it will be a squeaker only.
Mr Jackman’s predictions
http://jackman.stanford.edu/blog/?p=458#more-458
Socrates, sorry there was another article with the Korean Daily’s editor mentioning Howard and One Nation and his 1988 anti-Asian comments.
Below is the editor on 7.30.
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2007/s2075137.htm
Lindsay vote:
The Asian vote is interesting. I imagine many asians wouldn’t participate in polling, and most would vote against Howard. So potentially the swing in Bennelong is even higher.
Having said that though, I do know a fair few Asians who are voting Liberal based on the ‘why change what’s working system’, ‘interest rates’ and ’school fee bribes’ and just don’t pay attention to politics. Showing that the Liberal bribes and scare tactics is having some effect.
StanS @ 756 [BTW, just watched Agenda on Sky, David Speers is a disgrace to journalism.]
And it’s absolute partisan clowns like Speers that validates Rudd’s policy of denying them fuel to burn. Speers is the TV version of Piers.
769 Jim – I have no idea what you are talking about Jim. You still haven’t refuted my argument. Says it all really. Are you one of those Liberals that has been sent out to “Liberalise” the blogs? Why have you left the safe confines of Andrew Bolt’s blog?
Jackman’s model is predicting a 54-46 result based upon published polling (which shouldn’t be too surprising, since the polls have hardly moved).
The 80 seat figure is a separate number which simply reflects the number of seats the betting markets are currently expecting Labor will win.
Any news on Newspoll? Libsrok is looking good from your comments.
Re 750,
Lindsay voter Says:
Good on you
Socrates @ 721 said: “Bruce Baird was one of the last good ones IMHO.”
Soc, I’ve always thought this as well, but he went the mongrel on Penny Wong this morning on Skynews Agenda ‘07 with Helen Dailey (08:30 to 9:00 am).
Not only did he spout every vile Team Howard fear and smear, but hogged at least 2/3 of the time, then attempted repeatedly to interrupt and talk over Penny Wong. When Wong rebutted his wild claims with the same tough, cool arguments that Julia Gillard dealt with Barry Cassidy yesterday, Baird grew increasingly agitated and red-faced. It was very sad to see Baird doing an Abbott.
Haven’t got a clue whether he really believes what he was saying (and none of it was within cooee of small-l liberal) or whether there’s some lucrative board of director slots awaiting him to join with his old boss, Greiner (e.g. a major tobacco company, L. and M.). Then again, Greiner was far more composed and cogent on Skynews Agenda ‘07 last week, and how about John Debnam’s Kyoto comment today? Curiouser and curiouser!
Whatever the reason, for me that leaves John Fahey as one of the few last good ones (until I’m given information to the contrary from one of my fellow posters here).
People, Higgins is NOT IN PLAY. If Labor win Higgins, I’ll agree to spend the day mowing the concrete at Gary’s Blackburn squat.
Helen ‘Dill’y is worse. She interrupts the person she is interviewing every freaking time they try to answer. I mean why bother asking a question in the first place if you are just going to talk over them anyway?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/19/2095012.htm
WorkChoices here for good if Coalition wins: PM
Posted 48 minutes ago
Updated 34 minutes ago
Mr Howard says returning a Coalition government is crucial to keep the country’s workplace reforms in place. (AAP: Paul Miller)
Prime Minister John Howard says if the Coalition wins Saturday’s federal election a future Labor government would never be able to repeal the Government’s controversial WorkChoices legislation.
Mr Howard has delivered his final pitch for votes in Western Australia, during a speech to the local branch of the Liberal Party.
He says returning a Coalition government is crucial to keep the country’s workplace reforms in place.
“If we win on Saturday then the reforms that we have brought about will never be reversed by a future federal Labor government,” he said.
“They will become part of the furniture. They will become so embedded in our business and workplace culture that no future Labor government would be able to reverse them.”
==============
BAHAHAHAHA!!!:
What a pitch that is!!!
Kina are you really Ken Case?
Ashley, on last nights thread I had Diogenes trying to be smart telling me that Simon Jackman does the seat count properly according to the betting market.
So I will return serve and say that it is completely impractical to average out odds offered by bookmakers.
Also, Burgey maybe punters thought the coalition were overs at the 1.60. Tonights poll may change the market again.
DEO @ 747, do you still have Penny Wong’s press release?
Can you either post the link or fax it to Singtao Chinese daily @ 0292671474 and the Korean Daily at 02-98041855? Ta.
Jim.
How can you say that? Marginal swings of circa 7.5% are being reported all over NSW and VIC
Higgins is currently on low 8%s.
Higgins is in play, be definition.
I think Jim might have a personal vendetta going here.
The Senator ordered up a “rogue” for Newspoll tonight!
Yeah, give Rudd a break. He’s in a tussle with the most unprincipled, and rankly populist politician in a generation.
Every misstep, or even careless admission of complexity in an issue would be exploited by Rodent, with some regrettably effective piece of prize idiocy like “that means Rudd is soft on baby-eating!” / “Cat out of teh bag!” etc.
BV@789, that is hilarious. I think he has officially gone bonkers.
“during a speech to the local branch of the Liberal Party.”
Sky News reported it was a speech to WA Business leaders?
796 Lefty E
I agree –
Witness the reaction to the eminently reasonable suggestion that WA plan for moving past the resources boom by moving into financial services.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Coalition-preferencing-One-Nation-Labor/2007/11/19/1195321678988.html
Can someone post the link to the respective how-to-votes? I’m having problems with my adobe. I want to print and fax to the Korean and Chinese papers.
In Wentworth at the last Election before redistribution Labor got 26.34% The Greens got 11.15% Primary vote, labor got 44.52 tpp, so with this poll labor 36% up 9.66 and greens on 17% up 5.85% labor stands a very good chance of taking the seat
See http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-12246-152.htm
Please, the WA lunch was full of fricking young Liberals, i know a few young libs who went.
It was a speech to the party faithful
It looks as if WA is a bad state for Labor, so Howard’s speaking to WA like that might not be such a bad idea. However, everywhere else that’s poison. Hope it gets national coverage.
761
Edward StJohn Says:
November 19th, 2007 at 4:53 pm …”….It will be a highly qualified mandate for Labor though if they do fall over the line…”
…
Why highly qualified? A win is a win. You might like to understate the worth of winning a majority, but that will be neither here nor there.
Gary, seeing as you raised it, it is you that have spent so much time over at Andrew’s site….!
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/forum_sunday_october_1/
Like I said, still angry….
Same thing!
Voted today in Parramatta. My seat is Bendigo, Victoria. Got the ballot paper and wasn’t sure where to direct prefs in Reps. Nine candidates. Parked the papers and checked downstairs and a very savvy worker consulted an electronic device and said: “It doesn’t matter – Steve won’t go to preferences.”
I’ve done the deed! It was good! Anyway, put FF last.
Same thing really
Newspoll has WA at 50-50, which is a 5% swing to the ALP
The ‘Westpoll’ which only surveyed 400 voters had 52-48 which is still a 3% swing
The Libs are coming off a huge base in WA, so ALP will pick up a seat or two
The West Australian and Sunday Times, which love John Howard will always continue to push the line thet JWH is the best thing since sliced bread.
The reality is that the swing is on, even in WA
Story about total of government advertising for 2006/07 is out on ABC. Between that and the Regional Programmes “Pork-gate” the government must have used a good $500 million+ in the last 3 years gettin itself relected. Someone should work out teh cost per Coalition member of parliament. It would probably be cheaper to just give them a million dollars each and go away.
90
William Bowe Says:
November 19th, 2007 at 1:08 am
There is way too much crap on this thread, so I’m going to start deleting comments at whim. No correspondence about my decisions will be entered into.
…
bravo william. i agree. ( melodious blogger starts humming…”please delete me, let me goooo..”)
Why is that?
If the most important firewall for Howard to be spending time with is Cowan, Stirling, Hasluck, and is it Swan, at most a 2 seat gain for the Government they are pretty desperate, or pretty confident and the Johnny and Pete joint presser yesterday looked desperate (and IMHO pathetic, stick with an interest rates scare by all means bois it does worry me, but really all the iron ore in WA will magically dry up over night if Rudd is elected, even the most disengaged voter will see through something that stupid).
JHo gave them exactly the same speech about 3 months back.
Yes SeanofPerth, and as I noted earlier Westpoll overestimated the Coalition’s vote on average by over 6% in seat polling for the 2005 State election. I wouldn’t read a whole lot into their marginals polling.
SeanofPerth, JWH spent his time in a Labor held seat today. Does that mean he believes he has a chance there?
LindsayVoter,
Could you please as well inform Vietnamese newspapers / communities on the perference of Howard on OneNation & PaulineHanson, please.
Vietnamese in Australia are largely anti-Communist. Naturally, many of them favour Howard for that particular right-wing stance.
By combining Howard’s tactical brilliance of late with Abbott’s smooth lines and sharp delivery, it seems that the Government has designed the ultimate campaign master stroke:
Dressing up WorkChoices as “the sh!te-sandwitch we had to have”!!!
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA
He just pulled a rabbit out of his hat alright. This rabbit:
http://www.schmollo.de/wp-content/dead_rabbit.jpg
Yes, Jim I wrote that but I wasn’t angry, I was just referring people to the article by Milne. Or do you mean you are still angry? By the way that was in October LAST YEAR. I’ve moved on, I suggest you do the same, after addressing the point I made that seemed to get under your skin earlier.
Costello could be PM in a week
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22783284-5013947,00.html
LOL. Fat chance of that, but I like the speculation.
WA statewide may be recording a 4 or 5% swing, but if the marginals don’t swing, Labor won’t pick up anything there. All the evidence is that the WA marginals are not swinging, or even swinging to Lib.
Speaking of Higgins, how Stephen Mayne directing his preferences?
WA seats are irrelevant
JWH has no chance, period.
I would imagine he is just trying to maintain the belief to the faithful that he can still win. Apprently he’s off to Tassie this afternoon
I mean seriously, what was his big final pitch to WA? WorkChoices will stay!
All this humbo jumbo about the mining boom ending under Rudd is ridiculous.
Mind you, The West Australian newspaper is turning on Howard, callng him desperate etc.
The Sunday Times endorsed to Coalition, no surprises there.
The editor of The West is the biggest Liberal hack in the country, and they will endorse Howard i’m sure, even though the tone of the articles are changing.
Nah, Pete will find another seat for his good mate John to jump into so he can fulfil his dreams and retire with Menzies record. They’re part of a team after all and real caring folk.
Why are you angry Gary Bruce?
You are going to see a Labor government on Sunday arent you?
Oh and add 6PR to the mix as well, who btw only scored some 85 in the last radio ratings.
820
Ashley Says:
November 19th, 2007 at 5:17 pm
Costello could be PM in a week
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22783284-5013947,00.html
” LOL. Fat chance of that, but I like the speculation.”
And it does reinforce the message that a vote for the Liberals is a vote for an unstable leadership in the new parliament.
Labor will win Hasluck and hold Cowan and Swan. Stirling is 50/50 and I have $200 on SASman..WA is not going to let us down.
Yeah, thats what I love about this site. Keeping it real! Id be lost if i was following the MSM on all this.
Here’s my summary of fairly low risk assessments:
- NSW and QLD will deliver a bag of seats, probably 10 minimum.
- SA and Tas will certainly deliver 4, and most likely 5.
- WA is unlikely to provide a net gain to the coalition.
- That leaves the ALP needing one or two extra seats, with plenty of likely candidates in Vic, NT, and extras in NSW, QLD, SA
- LNP could still win, but its highly unlikely. Will take an implosion from Rudd and a lot of plain, dumb, and improbably consistent luck in marginals.
- better than 50/50 chance Howard wont be PM even if they do, having lost Bennelong
- chances of a hostile senate past July next are rather slim.
- the real toss-up is whether a landslide is on, or just a safe 4-5 seat margin.
What does MSM mean?
manstream media.
826 Edward StJohn – Edward, it is news to me that I’m angry. Anger is not one of those emotions that I readily experience. Jim is an old sparring partner back in the “Bolt days”. Now I wouldn’t give you two cents for it. Might suit your tastes though Edward.
Or ‘mainstream’. This is no time for me to star some weird pomo feminist critique!
“Malcolm Supports Malcolm”
Over to the new thread, everybody.