The Fairfax broadsheets today carry an ACNielsen poll from Wentworth taken from an impressive sample of 900. It shows Labor’s George Newhouse leading Malcolm Turnbull 52-48 on two-party preferred, with primary votes of 45 per cent for Turnbull, 36 per cent for Newhouse and 17 per cent for Greens candidate Susan Jarnason. Minor party preferences favoured Labor over Liberal by 86-14, which seems a little much.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
ACNielsen: 52-48 to Labor in Wentworth
-
-
From the Latest
-
Crikey's had some great scoops over the years - Here are 10 of the best!
Enter your email address below and we'll send you Crikey's Top 10 Leaks instantly.
And we'll send you our subscriber-only Crikey Daily Mail free for the next 21 days too!
Copyright © 2008 Private Media Pty Ltd, Publishers of Crikey.com.au. All Rights Reserved.
Independent news, blogs and commentary on politics, media and business.
Editor: Sophie Black.
Publishers: Eric Beecher, Diana Gribble.
Level 7, 22 William St, Melbourne, 3000. Ph: 1800 985 502 Fax: (03) 8623 9975
836 Comments
Pages: « 1 … 10 11 [12] 13 14 … 17 » Show All
You are right David Charles. Extension from the particular to the general is not valid argument. My apologies to other Liberals offended.
@ 471
kat Says:
November 19th, 2007 at 1:07 pm
Talking of TV appearances, did anyone see Costello and Swan on Sunrise this morning (channel 7)…….Costello was rabid, talking all over Sawn and the presenters and just behaving like a 10 years old child, and this man wants to be our prime minister?
KAT,
Thanks as I didn’t see that program. However, it was the same situation over on Skynews Agenda Election program at 8:30, which the normally competent Helen Dailey hosts (she makes Cassidy look like the big baby that he is).
Today, Helen had retiring NSW Liberal member, Bruce Baird and Labor’s Penny Wong. Alas, Helen gave Bruce at least 8 or 9 minutes before Penny was brought into the conversation, and then Baird kept rudely attempting to interrupt or talk over Wong the rest of the half hour. Wong just stayed composed and made her points clearly and succinctly, so Baird got increasingly agitated and red-faced.
I wrongly believed that Baird was one of those John Fahey type of fairly good Liberals from the old Greiner/Fahey Cabinet, but he just spouted the same shrill fear and doom nonsense that you can get from Bronwyn Bishop on that program regularly. It was a real bad look.
All I can imagine to account for Baird’s off-putting performance is that, like Greiner, Baird has a bunch of company directorships awaiting as a payoff for going the mongrel one last time. Baird might even get a seat on the most lucrative one, a Tobacco company’s board of directors, where Greiner is paid a princely sum for snoozing through one meeting a month (despite Greiner being a lifelong hater of smokers!)
Penny Wong was brilliant and tough, like the other Labor women I have seen in the media during this campaign, such as Gilliard, Roxon, Macklin, Jenny George and Sharon Bird (my local MP). Too bad those “star” blokes like Garrett and Mike Kelly were not up to the women’s high level of performance. Hopefully, we’ll see a larger number of women in Rudd’s Cabinet if Labor wins.
Historic Election, just stop, relax and then consider the following: How much would it cost to print that pamphlett and pay for delivery? Multiply by the number of houses in your electorate. You are now talking a sum well inot teh tens of thousands. That is how much the Liberals are now spending of their own money (finally!) just on your electorate because they are afraid of losing. And peopel aren’t buying it. Be happy
And the tide that Vaile is riding is actually a ruddslide
Vaile better get off it like Debnam just did before he hurts himself.
Debnam breaks ranks on Kyoto
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/19/2094680.htm
Clean coal an ‘oxymoron’: Peter Debnam (AAP: Sergio Dionisio)
Audio: Emissions cuts needed now: IPCC report (The World Today) Map: Sydney 2000
Related Link: Australia Votes 2007 Former New South Wales Liberal leader Peter Debnam has broken ranks with the Federal Coalition, saying the Kyoto protocol should have been ratified long ago.
The New South Wales Opposition energy spokesman has told an energy conference clean coal is an oxymoron and nuclear power is not a realistic option for Australia.
The Federal Coalition has refused to ratify the Kyoto protocol on climate change and insists nuclear energy must be considered.
Mr Debnam says clean energy options are staring Australia in the face and the country has to grab clean sustainable energy strategies.
And now we see some happy news on the ABC, a story entitled “Vaile denies split”
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/19/2094649.htm
Who cares for the Narrowing, we want the implosion
Forget about the Election, THIS is the big news story.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22782200-5005361,00.html
Fulvio Sammut… thank you for the acknowledgment and clarification.
Socrates 555, the real narrowing that is happening is from Howard’s eyebrows, due to an increasingly intense frown.
Howard’s eyebrows can relax on Sunday when he rides into the sunset of life knowing that his legacy will not only have been rejected but comprehensibly trashed…
In spite of all this commentary, I still think Turnbull is going to win this seat. It will be the one ‘marginal’ seat that doesn’t go to the ALP.
Higgins on the other hand…
Hawkie, the working man’s PM, is in WA campaigning. He is saying Howard is insulting the voters of WA to say that the mining boom would end if Rudd gets in. He rightly points out that China won’t care who is in power in Canberra.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/19/2094798.htm
John Hunt
I’m still waiting for the scene of the AFP trying to get the keys to Kirribilli out of Janet’s hands. I’m expecting the look on her face when they know its gone on Saturday will be almost as funny as the look on his face. and I hope Rudd waits for Howard to actually concede defeat. After all, its the decent thing to do.
Will,
Hawke is right. The real people to thank for our prosperity are the management of BHPB and Rio Tinto, and the miners and engineers in their workforce, who have built us some of the most efficient mining operations in the world. There is actually quite a lot of coal in the mountains in western China, but they still find it cheaper to ship it from Queensland. And Howard has had nothing to do with that.
So far I’ve seen Labor supporters on this website admit Labor’s not going to win Eden-Monaro or Wentworth. Kind of makes you wonder how they’re going to win if they’re not going to win seats polls show them in front on.
Yet people think they will win Herbert, Hasluck and Stirling which polls show Labor behind on. It’s enough to drive you bonkers.
Diogenes – I have to return some videotapes.
I think people are missing the point about Insiders. It’s not that everyone watches it, it’s that they will expose Rudd to public, difficult questions which he will have to answer, and the answers will be reported even if no-one watches the show (much like things often come out on the 7:30 report and straight into the papers/other news services).
It’s like the story on Rudd which was in The Aged this weekend – no-one really knows what he’s like and what drives him as an individual, and it’s natural enough to want to know what you’re buying, so to speak. In the Age article Rudd was inscrutable as ever, even when Michael Gawenda was eventually given 2 minutes to ask him personal questions.
I’m not saying Howard is any better – I just think ALP supporters and swing voters alike should think about whether they want to give Rudd the keys to both the lower and upper houses when he hasn’t exactly outlined a personal set of values and attitudes in this campaign.
I for one would like to know a lot more about things like:
- what KR really thought of the Iraq war, and what he really thinks of the US alliance (he has Foreign Affairs/CIA links from his time in the US IIRC)
- what KR thinks about media ownership in Australia, and whether or not he is prepared to have a go at restoring the cross-media rules and opening up more TV channels to new broadcasters
- what KR’s attitude to civil liberties is, and what he thinks of the recent spate of nasty abuses of executive power by the AFP, ASIO and co
- whether he really will roll over on Tasmania in terms of the environment there or will finally be prepared to have a crack at breaking up the most corrupt and nepotistic state government since Sir Joh’s fascist regime
- whether he supports genuine multiculturalism in the face of JWH’s constant attacks on anything other that a cultural perpetuation of the White Australia policy
…and so on and so on. And of course the biggie, what is he really going to do with WorkChoices? I suspect some unionists are going to be mighty disappointed with what “tearing up” WorkChoices actually means. There’ll be no return to the 1980s, that’s for certain.
And again – it’s not that I think Howard is better on any of these things, but for those who think Rudd has had it ‘tough’ in the media, where are the answers to the above questions? (NB: Answers involving quotes such as “out the back door” and “standing up for working families” will not be accepted).
In fact, here’s that Age article.
Afternoon all-
just got the obligatory Green’s Look-alike brochure revealing that we really want to give heroin to primary school children and sell christian babies to slave traders or some such bloody nonsense.
Surely the electorate is too smart….then again Hoawrd did win 4 elections in a row.
LETP
Who in their right mind said Labor won’t win Eden Monaro? (Remember Shanahan doesn’t count as a Labor supporter.) Do they think Gary Nairn will hold on because of his personal charm and ability to compare people with Nazis?
I think Stephen Smith will be moved into Environment.
Socrates : I recently saw a clip of margaret thatcher leaving No 10 for the last time in tears. I truely hope to see the rodents leaving Kirribilli the same way.
Costello will stay in Opposition if Labor win but has refused to answer questions about if that will be on the Front Bench or the Back Bench.
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/19/2094663.htm
Costello struggles to defend attack ad claiming a Labor win on Saturday would lead to strikes in the airline and petrol industries.
http://stmarys.yourguide.com.au/news/breaking/general/costello-struggles-to-defend-attack-ad/1088654.html
Patrick Bateman, I take it you are one of the “soft ALP supporters” Sol keeps referring to. Just how soft are you? Have you ever voted for Labor in your life?
FC @ 556,
Forget Paris Hilton. I’d like to see a tape of Maxine McKew in a bubble bath pop up.
(The above comment in no way reflects the opinion of the author. It’s just monday arvo and work is really slow today.)
Socrates:
Post 21 on the Eden-Monaro thread reads as follows:
“I have been working fulltime on the election trail in Eden Monaro, and the feeling on the ground is good. These numbers are good, and seem fairly accurate, however Nairn is still quite popular in some of the conservative (almost redneck) parts of the electorate.
He has all but given up on Queanbeyan and Cooma, and appears to be focussing on Tumut etc (the new parts of teh electorate). In the redistribution he picked up Tumut and lifted his margin from 2.2% (at 2004 election) to 3.3%.
The YRAW campaign in Tumut is strong though, and is getting some great feedback, but not necessarily against Nairn. Making the link between WorkChoices and Nairn has proved difficult.
My thoughts from on the ground:
Despite all this, I think Nairn will win Eden Monaro (albeit with a tiny margin) due to the fact that he capitalises on peoples lack of interest (his pitch is all about just getting on with the job and not worrying too much about the politics of it). As a result of this lack of interest from a lot (and certainly not everyone) of people in the electorate nobody is really swayed by the rorts stuff, however the Nazi blunder from his chief of Staff is STILL resonating here, and the YRAW Campaign is strong, so there may be a saving grace there.
If Nairn does win EM though, I still tip that it will be a break of the bellweather tradition, and we will still see a Rudd Labor Govt.”
Go Sir Bob.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22782980-5005361,00.html
The member for Benelong will be the minster for Environment.
After all Rudd will need someone who can get away with zero action on Climate Change but make it into a postive.
I am very curious as to how they poll Wentworth – there are very clearly delineated pockets of voters with very different affilliations that don’t fall into the usual demographic categories.
I live in a “new” part of Wentworth – the pink area – and I still reckong Turnbull will win.
I was interested to see, though, that the only piece of pork offered to Wentworth during the campaign was $150,000 towards security cameras etc – which would be administered by Waverley Council – which means that Turnbull has basically ignored all the new parts of Wentworth which are within the CIty of Sydney (and for that matter Woollahra).
Sadly, he has also totally ignored the gay demographic throughout the campaign – he has shunned all forums organised for or by the gay community. Not sure why, since I do believe that he is quite progressive on social issues.
But I just can’t see him losing.
M
For anyone interested:
Nick X is blogging live at the Tele right now:
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/yoursay/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/no_pokies_candidate_live_blog/
I’m one of those voters no-one talks about, who is passionate and engaged but prepared to ask hard questions of my own side in the hopes that I never vote for anyone automatically or based on false assumptions.
I’m also in an apparently tiny minority who care about social justice and civil liberties issues more than money.
But FYI I have never voted Liberal in my life, and after the last 10 years wonder if I ever could.
My prediction?
Libs will hold Wentworth (many of the Green 1st prefs will go to the Libs ahead of Labor – more of a symbolic protest vote than anything).
Bennelong has a chance of falling to Labor.
Coalition wins election by, say, 10 seats, despite 2PP result of >52% for Labor. Labor will solidify their current marginals, and take chunks out of currently safe Liberal seats.
Rudd Labor thrashes the government NEXT time.
I’m baffled by the widespread belief in a Labor victory on Saturday. They’ll get majority of the vote, but no way are they picking up 18 seats (allowing for the two that will fall in WA, not to mention the odd surprise Labor loss in NSW or elsewhere)!
Patrick, you should have a read of “Avoiding Wedges for Dummies” (K. Rudd, 2007). I’m pretty sure it has a section on each of those questions.
Rumour in today’s Crikey.
“The rumour out Bennelong way is that the Exclusive Brethren have given their members special permission to vote at this election. Might at the very least help John Howard’s salvation locally”
Hypocrites for Hypocrites!!!!!!
That’d be the same Geldof who appeared in advertisements for Telstra?
Speaks for itself really.
LOL.
Andrew, which seats will Labor lose in NSW?
Patrick Bateman, I get you. I’d like to consider myself someone who’d not automatically settle for a vote for one party but I find myself with little choice. I just don’t know whether I could risk voting Liberal ever again given their terrible track record over the past 11 years on any issue not involving the economy.
Socrates – Based on previous posts I think LTEP will still be asking for proof of a Labor win even after the rodent concedes.
When was the last time crikeys tips got anything right or Kerr got anything right for that matter.
And yet in 581 you apparently disagree that Australia’s foreign aid is embarrassingly pathetic. Interesting.
No poll has shown a Coalition win this year. The betting markets are predicting an ALP win and have been doing so for a while. Based on that, I don’t see anything baffling about believing the ALP will win. If anything, I think believing the Coalition will win in spite of this evidence, is quite irrational.
So what are your reasons for predicting a Coalition win?
Good on you Patrick Bateman. Your points are all spot on.
We dont know what we are getting with KR, broadly speaking people like what they see (as they did with Latham) but he is certainly far from a known commodity to the public.
As to policy – KR loved Iraq (at least according to Latham’s book) and on WorkChoices its good night irene one way or another for the “unions”.
Andrew, did you that deNial is a river in Egypt?
Not at all. I’m just not going to accept criticism from a rock star who takes money in exchange for selling his image to promote a phone company which is amongst the worst abusers of Australia’s workplace laws and uses its government-gifted monopoly to hold Australia in the technological dark ages.
Ashley he did no such thing. He just scoffed at Bob Geldof being all high and mighty about it yet appearing on an ad for Telstra.
KT, Andrew’s overall belief the Coalition can win is not irrational. It’s still possible, however improbable. Whether you choose to acknowledge the slight possibility of a Coalition win (which is still alive, particularly given the doubt on swings in marginal seats) is up to the individual.
Having said that I’d still like to know which NSW seats Labor will lose. Paramatta?
More Infrastructure from Rudd.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/19/2094812.htm?section=justin
+ 1
Andrew @ 578,
once you make up your mind, bet your money on Coalition at BetFair (now Coalition $4.5 / Labor $1.27). According to your prediction, you’ll be 3.5 time richer
LTEP, I’ll rephrase that, because I do think I worded that a bit too strongly. No, I don’t think believing that there is *a chance* that the Coalition will win is irrational. Yes, anything can happen. However, to believe that it is likely the ALP will lose, or to believe that it’s baffling that a lot of people think the ALP win, is irrational.
Frank F if thats how you do numbers then I’d take your predictions on election outcomes with a kilo of salt.
For christ sakes people, Wentworth is NOT… I repeat NOT a Liberal Marginal seat!
Have a look at the vote for Turnbull in 2004, which was 42%.
Then add the Independent King’s who wasn’t too happy being kicked out as Lib member for the seat…. 18%
Put these two Lib votes together and what do you get? 60%
Minus a 10% swing to Labor/Greens and what do you have? Turnbull sitting on a sweet 50% Primary vote.
This seat is not a marginal Lib seat, the mathematics just aren’t there and anyone who thinks this seat is going to be in the Labor camp after the election is BONKERS.
#594
Exactly what I was going to say to Andrew. If he thinks that there is any way in hell for the ALP to get 52% or greater TP nationally and still lose, he whould lay down his hard-earned at the fantastic odds they are for the Coalition. Oh that’s right: The odds wouldn’t be that LONG on the coalition unless the big money really rated Howard’s chances as low.
The big money doesn’t lie Andrew.
LaborVoter… so this poll is just plain wrong then?
Andrew: While it’s possible for a government to win on a TPP of even 25%, the likelihood of them winning on less than 48% is ridiculous. On top of that you’re saying they would have a 10 seat majority on less than 48% TPP is again very unlikely.
In 1998, the TPP was 50.98% to the ALP, and the difference was 13 seats (taking in to account the 1 IND afterwards, the government had a majority of 12 seats). Also in that election, the ALP won 18 seats and lost none. They only need to win a net of 16 to win a majority. There is no ONP like the 98 election either, which affected the swings in key marginals.
Even the commentariat as saying the ALP is bound to at least get 13-14 seats. It’s to get those extra few, and to get 14 will most likely cause a hung parliament as we can’t count on Bob Katter, but 15 will give a minority government with the backing of Tony Windsor.
Your post would have made more sense if you said the ALP getting about 51%, but at 52% its pushing the absurd that they don’t win.
Again, while your statement is probable, it’s VERY unlikely.
Pages: « 1 … 10 11 [12] 13 14 … 17 » Show All