The Fairfax broadsheets today carry an ACNielsen poll from Wentworth taken from an impressive sample of 900. It shows Labor’s George Newhouse leading Malcolm Turnbull 52-48 on two-party preferred, with primary votes of 45 per cent for Turnbull, 36 per cent for Newhouse and 17 per cent for Greens candidate Susan Jarnason. Minor party preferences favoured Labor over Liberal by 86-14, which seems a little much.
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ACNielsen: 52-48 to Labor in Wentworth
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836 Comments
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Edward StJohn,
suit yourself, your denial is unimaginagle.
LaborVoter @550, I have. and at $3.05 its worth the 50/50 chance.
Think about Mr. King was, he split the *Liberal* vote. and at the end of the day, his preferences went back to Turnbull. If you believe that there is a hidden Liberal vote that didn’t show up in Wentworth last time, you are believing that there are Liberal voters who voted for King, and then preferenced Labor before Turnbull. Might have been a few, but what is to say the same people don’t vote for Labor this time, or vote Green, which is effectively the same thing.
So yeah, thanks to our preferential voting system, the 2.5% (notional) we have in Wentworth is probably an accurate reflection of how people wanted to vote, at least in 04.
The next argument is Turnbull has a strong personal vote. Probably so, but that strong personal vote is already factored into the vote in 04. As in, it can’t get *better*. I’d be very surprised if people as good for Turnbull now as they did then, pulp mills, Howard *** licking etc.
Then there is the gay vote. Those outside the community don’t realise just how pissed off some gay voters are at Howard. And that tide has been swinging further since the last election. Don’t forget also that Wentworth takes in new booths that voted strongly labor, but here’s the rub, people in those booths were free to not vote as strongly to Labor in 04 knowing it would probably not make much difference. My prediction is moving them to Wentworth will polarise them more strongly for Labor.
Then, you gotta consider the effect of the small parties and their preferences. Rightly or wrongly Turnbull is going down as the poster child for both the pulp mill and Kyoto. Turnbull won’t come close on primaries.
Then you have to consider the weight of the polls. 52/48 with a MoE of 3 is signficiant. And it isn’t the first poll either to predict a dead heat or very slight in favor of Labor. (Even the aggregate polls hint at at least a tight poll).
My prediction: It’ll be within 1% and most probably in Labor’s favor.
-moo-
It’s a conspiracy.
http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/two_murdoch_papers_endorse_labor_.htm
578 Andrew Says: November 19th, 2007 at 2:37 pm
It’ll be a landslide, and every poll in the past nine months points to it. Not one or two. Not some. Not even most. But every single one, and that’s about 90 or so.
I reckon Turnbull is going to be the lucky one, and that is just because his seat is marginal based upon the last election that also involved the independent (and ex lib) King. I believe it would normally be a very safe seat.
Bennelong, on the other hand. And North Sydney. And Higgins. And Forde. And a host of others are in the firing line.
The swing is on, and people made up their minds six months ago.
Don’t keep your rat poison in the kitchen cupboard.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22782831-12377,00.html
Place it in your nearest ballot box instead!
Dave from Albury,(way back), the media has really dumbed down Australia with the assistance of the current government, and you are right, hardly any of them deserve much respect. That Cassidy can chuck a prissy hissy fit on national TV is disgraceful, undignified, and tells us all we need to know.
As for the notion that Rudd hasn’t copped any scrutiny, well, it’s only partly true, but the other part is, ‘get over it’, this is showbiz politics, and the old Ringmaster has so tarnished the show that it was only ever possible to win by playing the same game.
I’ve got no qualms about Rudd’s strategy: he’s palyed Howard’s game better than the rodent, and deserves to win on that alone. But there is so much more, and we will see this country change, and for the better, under new management.
LTEP, sorry, but that’s how I read it. If Patrick means to discredit the man, but not the argument he was making, he should express it a little more clearly. “Says it all really” implies that Geldolf’s arguments are invalid because he has done ads for Telstra. This is ad hominem (if you’ll excuse the pun).
I think the ALP are more likely to net North Sydney than Wentworth, though I suspect they may fall short on both.
Edward StJohn Says: “…We dont know what we are getting with KR…”
We certainly know what we’re getting with the rodent though – no questions there!
578.. so much for maths education
Mad Cow
Yes, I used to live in Wentworth for many years – and now live in Kingsford Smith…but I wish I was still in Wentworth and then my vote would count for something ..
I have friends who live there – they say, look there is a huge green vote – true greens and then the wealthy people who in some ways have a superficial commitment to it, I hate to say it – its like its almost funky. My friend lives in Woollohra, and he says there are green posters in Queen St, Woollahra!!
My friends say its going to be close – its not in the bag for Malcolm at all. I hear that Lucy is becoming “shrill” because she is afraid of the result…
Re Patrick Bateman’s comments such as this @ 564: “And of course the biggie, what is he really going to do with WorkChoices? I suspect some unionists are going to be mighty disappointed with what “tearing up” WorkChoices actually means. There’ll be no return to the 1980s, that’s for certain.”
In Patrick’s previous post to this one, he openly barracked for a Green Party Senate vote, which helps explains why he’s attempting to create a bogus impression (ala Bolt and Farr on Insiders) that Rudd and Labor have not copped strong enough media scrutiny.
However, Patrick’s “biggie” of Industrial Relations is a policy area where we, in fact, do know what tearing up Worklchoices actually means..
Rudd and Gillard put the details out many months ago to a considerable lack of enthusiasm, if not hostility, from the union movement. They’ve already taken the hit for that with many “progressives”. I received an email from my union president this week critical of Rudd.
Now, as for a balance of Senate power going to the Green Party, I attended a local candidates debate held at Wollongong University a fortnight ago. Green Party candidate, Michael Organ, formerly the only Green member of the House of Reps so far, bashed Labor more often and vehemently than he did the Coalition because his only chance to regain that House seat is to defeat Labor’s incumbent Sharon Bird again. That’s fine with me. Just the normal rough and tumble of election campaigns. But I don’t think for a moment that voting for Green Senators means that they will be above the pragmatic requirements of politics.
The Greens are just as adept at political spin doctoring and playing power games as the major parties, which Green Party supporter Patrick Bateman has amply demonstrated with his posts.
607, if you want to get formally logical then you’ve got some nice inductive reasoning going on. Formally, your reasoning as to my attitudes seems to be based on the following set:
Premise 1: Bob Geldof says X is morally wrong
Premise 2: Bob Geldof is a sellout corporate shill who is not an authority on morality
Conclusion: Geldof’s view about X is not a morally correct position
If anyone ever deserved some ad hominem it’s that hominem…
588 Edward – As Possum argues, the problem is that the electorate tends only to hear echoes of Howard’s own duplicity in most of the Government’s criticisms of Rudd. My own feeling, for what it is worth, is that Rudd’s attractiveness lies in his quiet approach and moderate opinions which are the main factor negating the Government’s anti-union hype. He just doesnt seem to be the type you could connect with ‘union thugs’, much less strip joints. On the other side he is also prepared to show the human side of his personality (like Hawke) which is something Liberal leaders seem to find difficult to do. I think that will be an important factor in determining whether the electorate opt for change.
PM Feeling Lucky in Perth:
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/
This reminds me of a Clint Eatwood movie when Clint Eastwood said:
“You’ve got to ask yourself one question: ‘Do I feel lucky?’ Well, do ya punk?”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/19/2094915.htm?section=justin
Let me restate this another way.
Those people who voted for King who then preferenced Labor over Liberal. Are they real Liberal voters. I don’t think so.
So counting every King vote as an 07 Turnbull vote is kinda silly.
Some keep saying 16 seats is a big ask – it means that about a net 10-11% of total seats need to change hands, but this has happened in about a third of all elections since world war 2, so whilst not the most common result, a big shift in seats is not uncommon. In fact, on average about 8% of seats switch – there are a couple of biggies in there though – 1975, 1983, 1996: see the pattern
Assuming that the polls don’t shift much from the 54/46 TPP, I can’t see why it won’t happen in 2007.
1961, 1969, 1975, 1980, 1983,1996 and 1998 are the elections where this has occurred.
From the Readers comments in Perth Now Story.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/comments/0,21590,22782592-2761,00.html
Sheesh.
Edward StJohn Says: “…We dont know what we are getting with KR…”
Edward, if we take this argument to its logical conclusion you wouldn’t change governments, ever. Long term oppositions are likely to have a new untried leader. Fortunately, in our system of government, if we don’t like the ‘new bloke’ we can vote him out next election. That’s the check we have. So we shouldn’t be frightened to try someone new, given that the old one IS broken.
Bird #611
Lucy is definatly loosing it she grabbed the Greens table at the weekend and tried to move it.
Her war criminal dad (Tom Hughes) from the Vietnam war conscription days is doing Pre-polling in Bondi.
Those Neo-cons are now desperate, the working class tennements are revolting.
I just love how some of the brilliant minds in on-line forums can take a few words on a particular subject and extrapolate who you are, how you vote, and what you had for breakfast.
Thanks for your post Hemingway, an ample demonstration of why Australia seems to lack a “civil society” within which a genuine intellectual interest in politics is demonstrated – a series of ridiculous and childish assumptions to the effect that anyone who questions your own view or the wisdom of a particular stance is automatically a rabid member of “the enemy” (as defined on a case by case basis).
I am happy to admit that in the present environment I am clearly on the progressive side of the ledger. But if you engage your brain for a moment and read my post I am merely suggesting that unfettered power for Rudd is not necessarily something people on the ALP side of politics would want, and presumably they aren’t going to vote LibNatz or Family First, so the Greens are the obvious alternative in the Senate.
As for WorkChoices, you really are a true believer (in whatever lines you get fed) if you think that Rudd’s IR policy is in its final form.
Now if you’ll excuse me, I’m off to grow dreadlocks, take ecstasy and chain myself to a harvester to oppose the murder of defenceless wheat, in line with my blatantly obvious radical green tendencies.
Regarding the Liberal 2 way catalouge, I got one too and I live in Ryan. Yes it is expensive to produce and distribute and I was really thrilled to get it here in Ryan because (not that any is needed) that the LIberals are sh@tting themselves because they are in trouble in a 10% seat. Anyone who gets this brochure in safe Lib seats hold on because it is about to become Labor on Saturday.
Misty @608, nah.. I give North Sydney a 20% chance and Wentworth a 60% chance.
Shrek and David Toliner sing for their supper.
http://media.news.com.au/multimedia/mediaplayer/index.html?id=561
You conservatives are a crack up. You have got as much chance seeing the Dessicated Coconut doing ballerina dancing in a purple dress on the moon as winning the election if labor win 52% of the vote.
#515 LTEP Yeds I agree with you that Latham’s handshake was no big deal. I remember seeing it on telly, and wondering why people were trying to interpret it as a show of violence. It was certainly vigorous, but so what?
I got worried about Latham earlier than that, when I learned he’d broken a taxi-driver’s arm.
Why has there been no Galaxy poll today, does anybody know? This is the sixth week of the campaign and there have only been 2 nationwide polls from Galaxy.
LTEP,
No one is saying that the Coalition doesn’t have a chance of winning on Saturday. BUT, the betting markets are suggesting that the Coalition have about a 22% chance of winning atm – roughly the same the Latham had of winning the election in 2004 at a similar time in the campaign.
Additionally, no regular commenter on this blog has ever suggested that Labor won’t win Eden-Monaro. The post you quote (I believe) was from some guy who has never posted again – possibly a troll?
Re 583,
Lose the election please Says:
Pray tell why your seat guess was 78 to the Coalition then? Wouldn’t a non-Liberal voter have suggested a Labor victory? Curious minds want to know
Patrick, dunno what you’re going on about. I was just surprised that if you are a “greenie” you would be bagging what Geldolf is saying. Do you also think that Al Gore is full of sh*t? Because by all reports he is not as green as he could be.
Patrick Bateman, you don’t necessarily have to vote Greens in the Senate. You could just as well vote Democrats. Really advocating a vote for the major minor party is not vastly different from saying everyone should vote for one of the two majors. You don’t have to vote Greens in the Senate to ‘rescue the Senate’.
At the moment I’m still deciding on my Senate vote. I’m pretty sure of my Reps vote, but the Senate one’s a bit trickier.
I think if you follow the discussion in a little more detail the suggestion is rather that Rudd needs to be scrutinised in more detail because we are going to get rid of Howard… it’s time to start grilling the new guy and pinning him down instead of letting him get away with “blah blah blah working families blah blah out the back door blah blah laptops for children”.
I suspect there are many progressive/small-l liberals who have been content to see Rudd run a semi-small target campaign (me-tooism if you like). But now that a Rudd win’s on the cards, there’s not harm is asking a few questions about his intentions.
Is there?
#619
I don’t believe many of the pro-lib posts on news ltd blogs, especially on perth now. She’s probably a Young Liberal following orders to continue the propaganda war.
I got the same large double-sided booklet thing in North Sydney.
Patrick @ 633,
Scrutiny is fine. However, I would rather the scrutiny wait til after the election is over (and Rudd has won), just so to make sure that there is no chance of a last-week gaffe by Rudd.
I’m more interested in getting rid of Howard than Rudd – once Howard is gone, feel free to scrutinise Rudd to your heart’s content…
I appreciate that – I’m a below-the-liner (as I imagine most here are) so I’ll be doing my own prefs in a very state-dependent way, based on personal knowledge of some of the candidates and the state of play in my state (SA).
But as I alluded to elsewhere, if I don’t want an ALP double-majority, I’m hardly going to vote Lib/Nat in the upper house, and (with all due respect for a party I am very sad to see go) a vote for the Democrats is a vote for your next party in order of preference…
If the Wentworth poll is even close to the truth then turnbull has lost, as the undecided voters (anything upto 20%) those taking little interest in politics and making their mind up in the last week usually break 2/1 in favor of the national trend – ie towards Rudd. That ought to do it.
It is more than just local politics – Rudd is that nice safe looking conservative man who sounds positive. Howard is that aging grumpy man who keeps having troubles and did something bad with that WorkChoices thing.
Wentworth most certainly is a ‘chance’, regardless of the King thing. AND if you check Nielsen polls you will notice that from the last poll to the actual election the LNP usually loses some primary votes to ‘Others’. They will want their primary to be up before the big day.
Bennelong is certainly lost – every poll puts Howard in trouble and the campaigning against him is intensifying.
Newspoll should be colse to 55/45 all things being equal (moe)
Scare campaigns?
Up to 70% (insert number of choice) of beachside homes in Australia risk some inundation due to sea level rises under Coalition Greenhouse policies. It is likely that insurers will withdraw cover for inundation of seaside residences as risks increase.
The IPPCC’s latest report forecasts even greater sea-level rises than previously predicted leaving shoreside residences exposed to much greater risks as to frequency and severity of inundation than before.
Etc. Etc.
Of the 8 new polling booths added to Wentworth in the west of the electorate, 4 were won by the Greens in the Senate, in the just passed State election and in 2 the Greens came 2nd
Just for the “2PP” club let me repeat 4 of the 8 new booths were WON outright by the GREENS. i.e. the greens beat the LIB/LAB party.
More bad news for Howard.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22783451-5005361,00.html
Ok, let’s try is more simply. Is there a difference between these two concepts:
1. I like/dislike and respect/don’t respect Bob Geldof
2. I agree/disagree with a particular statement Bob Geldof made
Or, more simply, I can think someone is a w***er and still agree with something they say.
If you can spend a few hours working through the subtleties of that then we’ll be ad idem.
As for Gore I just wish he’d stop eating pies and accepting awards and start campaigning for the primaries to save us from the ultimate non-liberal, H-Rod.
the fall of wentworth to the alp signals the first of the inner city lib heartland to fall. long term trends say that higgins, kooyong and north sydney are also gradually changing. the greens will hold the b of p in the future in these seats.
Not sure if this has been asked but is there a newspoll out tonight/tomorrow?
I think Rudd is telling the MSM to go “Scrut” themselves.
Look as far as “knowing” what we are getting with Rudd it is a circular question that can be legitimatly asked much more appropriatley to the Coalition. When will Howard retire, who will be in his ministry and that of his as yet unknown successor (Tip is no racing certainty) etc etc? In reality there are more unknowns in the coalition than Labour this election. I won’t even start the whole related arguement of potential LIberal broken promises a la 2004 and Work Choices!
The election theme for this week looks like being the backstabbing and general disintegration of the libs as they head towards saturday.
Now that the media (for the most part) have accepted that the ALP will win, some writers are wishing to make their mark by being the first to report on the post election blood letting. Unfortunately for the Libs, it is still pre-election.
I am in the “it will be close but an ALP win camp”. But it will be a demolition if the Libs let the recriminations get out of hand.
Why I want to see blood, in about 100 words:
ABC cuts, ABC board, Alexander Downer, anti-terror laws, apology-sorry-gate, Aspirational nationalism, Asylum-seekers, Australian flags for school funding, AWB, barbed-wire, child-care, children overboard, climate-change (denial), Cornelia Rau, David Hicks, dental-scheme cuts, dirt-files, Exclusive Brethren, fridge magnets, gay-marriage bans, George Bush, government advertising, inflation, immigration detention centres, INTEREST RATES!, Iraq, Janet Albrechtson, Keith Windschuttle, Kevin Andrews, Kirribilli House, Liberal fundraisers at Kirribilli, Mersey Hospital, mat/paternity leave, ministerial responsibility, Mohamed Haneef, multiculturalism, native title, ‘never-ever’ GST, non-core promises, nuclear energy, One-Nation preferences, public hospital cuts, Pauline Hanson, Peter Hollingsworth, Peter Reith’s phonecard, Phillip Ruddock, plausible deniability, prisons in the desert, Pru Goward (ew!), public school funding cuts, reconciliation, ‘relaxed and comfortable’, sedition laws, Siev-X, sorry, Tampa, Telstra, ten-point plan, Tony Blair, Tony Tran, two-night promises, ‘un-Australian’, UNIONS!, university funding, values debates, Vivian Solon, VSU, War on Terror, wedges, Wik, Workchoices, WMD
He has been. Perhaps you should have paid attention to the last 10 months.
Can someone illuminate me as to how personally popular Teresa Gambaro is in Petrie? There’s an article by Jennifer Hewett in The Oz that suggests her personal support makes Petrie an unlikely win for Labor this time around, yet the betting markets suggest that Petrie will be the next QLD seat to fall to Labor…
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22781048-5013871,00.html
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