• Dennis Shanahan and Matthew Franklin in The Australian:
ALP polling in Victoria last week suggested Labor would be lucky to win a seat in the state, meaning that the bulk of the 16 seats the party needs for victory will have to come from NSW and Queensland … Senior Labor officials last night maintained there was a continuing swing to the ALP, as evidenced by the published polls, but said it remained a tight contest in marginal seats across the country. “There is no question we will win seats in NSW and Queensland, the question is how many,” a senior Labor source said … Victorian Liberals and Labor sources suggest extrapolations of up to six seats being won in Victoria are unlikely. Last week, Labor polled the five most marginal seats of La Trobe, Deakin, Corangamite, McEwen and McMillan with a sample of 350 voters in each seat. Labor sources stressed the ALP was not in front in any of the Victorian marginals held by the Coalition. Liberal sources said Labor was finding it difficult to get above the “high water mark” of Labor support in Victoria but they believed three or four seats were still very close … Playing down expectations in NSW, some Labor officials are suggesting a net gain of four or five seats would be a good result. The published polling in Queensland also suggests the high expectations based on Labor’s overwhelming two-party-preferred lead of 10 points for most of the past year have been tempered with the latest estimates of only three or four seats … In the Northern Territory, the Country Liberal Party’s Dave Tollner is expected to benefit from the Coalition’s intervention in the Northern Territory and hold his seat, despite it being one of the most marginal in the country.
• Gerard McManus in the Herald-Sun:
Depending on the tightness of the result next Saturday this could still mean that WA, which is three hours behind the east, may determine the final outcome very late on Saturday night. But Labor insiders remain quietly confident the result will be known well before that, with New South Wales, South Australia and Queensland likely to deliver sufficient seats for it to take government. Optimists inside Labor believe the party can take up to three to five seats in South Australia, up to eight in Queensland, and six to eight in New South Wales. And some super-optimists say Labor could take 11 or 12 seats in NSW, including the mortgage-strapped seats of Greenway (11 per cent) and Macarthur (11.1 per cent) … But based on the earlier, more conservative prediction Labor would achieve a comfortable majority of about six seats based on winning its required 16 seats in Queensland, SA and NSW, and also picking up the two Tasmanian seats, one or two in either Victoria or WA, and the Northern Territory seat of Solomon, which both sides expect to go to Labor. Interestingly, Labor is not banking on winning any seats in Victoria because it already holds a majority of the seats in the state, but will not be surprised to see up to three fall “if the swing is on” … An analysis of the critical 30 marginal seats suggests that Labor can still be certain of a definite gain of only a dozen seats and that even the best pundits have no idea of the result in some seats. For example, predicting the outcome in the Prime Minister’s seat of Bennelong, often quoted as a possible or even likely Labor gain after a redistribution cut the PM’s margin to just 4 per cent, has been hampered by the reluctance of Chinese and Korean voters to talk to pollsters. “We have no idea who they will vote for because they simply refuse to co-operate – they are suspicious of polls and questionnaires,” one NSW Labor worker told the Herald Sun this week. Many expect Mr Rudd’s fluency in Mandarin to have impressed Chinese nationals and ABCs (Australian-born Chinese), but others say Chinese typically respect elderly and incumbent leaders. Similarly, Malcolm Turnbull’s affluent Sydney seat of Wentworth has been buffeted by several controversies, including the legitimacy of Labor candidate George Newhouse. Labor insiders say they will be surprised if Mr Turnbull is not returned.
• Jennifer Hewett in The Australian:
The strong anti-union message from the Government was resonating into the idea of whether it was worth taking the risk on economic management. Even interest rate hikes were making people just a little nervous about the prospect of making a change. NSW seats such as Eden-Monaro and Page, which Labor must win next Saturday, suddenly looked much tighter. The surge to Labor in South Australia abated. Braddon in Tasmania was no longer looking so much like a near certainty for the ALP. Queensland could only really guarantee four seats rather than six. Victoria was not looking likely to produce any wins at all … in Queensland the estimate from both sides is a probable loss of four government seats (Bonner, Moreton, Blair, Herbert) to six seats (Leichhardt, Forde or just maybe the new seat of Flynn despite the anger there over council amalgamations). In NSW, the estimate is about five seats to Labor but with great nervousness about Eden-Monaro and a little nervousness about Page. Labor is not including Wentworth or Bennelong on its likely list. In Victoria, Labor is not confident of winning any seats, where effective government MPs will be trying to hold out against the tide. In South Australia, both Liberals and Labor expect a loss of three Coalition seats but no more. In Tasmania, Bass looks as if it is gone from the Liberals, but there are different views about whether the Liberals will hold Braddon. In the Northern Territory, the Liberal Country Party’s David Tollner will be trying to hold out against Labor in a typically tough-knuckled fight. And then, of course, there’s WA, where the likeliest outcome, as of this weekend, is a possible loss of Cowan – where the popular Labor MP is also retiring – balanced by a Labor pick-up in Hasluck. But absolutely no guarantees of anything.
• Andrew Burrell wrote in Friday’s Financial Review that Liberal polling showed them narrowly ahead in Stirling, whereas Labor’s had the two parties “virtually deadlocked”. Labor sources are said to be “extremely confident” of winning back Hasluck.
• Google has now added polling booth locations to its magnificent Google Maps election feature.
• Complete results from the weekend’s EMRS poll of the five Tasmanian seats available here.
• Simon Jackman has laid his predictive cards on the table.
• Andrew Fraser of The Australian gives an overview of the Sunday papers’ record on editorial endorsements, but the good bit is not included in the online article. Here it is:
Sunday Telegraph (News Limited, Sydney): 1998 Howard, 2001 Beazley, 2004 Howard, 2007 Rudd. “The Sunday Telegraph accepts readers believe it is finally time to give Labor a go. But Mr Rudd needs to guarantee our nation several things. He must stare down a Labor cabinet inhabited by many with union and factional allegiances … Mr Rudd must surround himself with a loyal team that will help him deliver on his promises“.
Sunday Herald Sun (News Limited, Melbourne): 1998 Howard, 2001 Howard, 2004 Howard, 2007 Howard. “It is time. Not to change governments, but to resist temptation. It is time to acknowledge that the Coalition is the safe bet in a political contest in which the new, despite its superficial allure, offers less than the familiar”.
The Sunday Age (Fairfax, Melbourne): 1998 N/A; 2001 None; 2004 None; 2007 No call. “On the contenders’ ‘exposed form’, The Sunday Age does not see enough differences between the Coalition and Labor to urge readers to vote for one over the other”.
The Sun-Herald (Fairfax, Sydney): 1998 N/A; 2001 Howard; 2004 Howard; 2007 Rudd. “The Sun-Herald says voters face a tough choice but our endorsement is for the Labor Party. Team Rudd gets our final tick on the strength of its fresh vision for education”.
Sunday Mail (News Limited, Adelaide): 1998 Howard; 2001 Howard; 2004 Howard; 2007 Howard. “Now is not the time to move into untested waters, particularly as the world economy comes under strain next year. The Sunday Mail believes the Coalition is best placed to govern Australia for the next three years”.
Sunday Times (News Limited, Perth): 1998 Howard; 2001 Howard; 2004 Howard; 2007 Howard. “The Sunday Times believes change for change sake is simply not an adequate trigger to throw out a Coalition Government which, while far from perfect, has overseen record prosperity in WA and the nation”.
Sunday Mail (News Limited, Brisbane): 1998 N/A; 2001 None; 2004 Howard; 2007 Rudd. “There is undoubtedly a mood for national renewal and there is a need for national renewal. Mr Rudd has demonstrated he has the potential to undertake that task effectively”.
367 Comments
We are coming back!
We are coming back!
Yeah ha
Thanks Lefty E
What are the “Bolt days” Gary Bruce?
Some kind of strange Labor ritual?
doesn’t Gerard McManus realise WA is on Daylight savings and are 2 hours the rest of the country ?
Hi guys, asked my family last night, who live up in the seat of Mallee (I’m in Melbourne). I’m guessing all of them voted Liberal last time by the way they spoke. This time here is what they’re doing:
Mother: Labor – Due to the water issue and environment.
Father: Labor – Same as mother, plus likes Rudd & Gillard
Elder Sister: Labor – Due to the 6 interest rate hikes.
Younger Sister: Labor – For their higher education policy.
My family doesn’t take much notice of politics and are the true definition of a swing voter family.
Thought you’d be interested. I was surprised when I found out their intentions.
The Duke.
That newspaper commentary is called “hedging your bets”, Please a clue anybody about Newspoll!
Strange analyses there. Looks like the newspaper commentariat is having a bet every which way, saying the Labor win could be small, big or not at all.
Gee that’s insightful! And they pay these people??
All too gutless to make a definitive prediction one way or the other. I’m sure they’ll all do Gerrad Hendersons on Sunday and declare they knew it would turn out the way it did… It’s amazing how right you can be if you don’t make public predictions!
Tabitha @ #1
Actually that was pretty funny.
Did you’re parents write that one for you?
Come of it Edward, surely you’ve heard of Andrew Bolt.
Who was it saying about a week ago that the smh had not endorsed Labor in an editorial since 1961? Is this correct? And if so, what of this shift?
Any news from Newspoll?
Why are the people Labor hates most those who have left the fold?
eg Andrew Bolt, Glen Milne, Mark Latham
Is it because they are no longer beholden to the party and the rest of them hate that?
Been having a think about all these marginal polls. The ALP has held a consistent killer lead in the overall 2pp yet there is a steady flow of marginal polls showing the ALP might struggle to win key seats..
I wonder if there is a bias if you start looking at too many marginal polls in isolation. Bear with me ‘cause I’m going to go all first year stats here.
Lets say there are 20 marginal that we know the real vote is 51/49 to party XYZ. If we polled 400 voters in each of the seat (MOE 5%), due to sampling error, we would expect to find a result showing XYZ behind about 1/3 of the time.
Is this part of the reason the marginal polling never seems quite as good as the aggregate polling?
(My apologies to the stats experts on this site if I am merely stating the bleeding obvious)
ESJ – you forgot Paddington Piers.
Yeah – I am sure Rudd is writing up his concession speech right now.
LOL
Reading and plotting the estimates..and sure, ALP insiders are bound to accurately brief the GG reporters.
State – Worst – Best
Vic 0-4
NSW 5- 8
QLD 4 -8
NT 0- 1
TAS 1- 2
WA 0- 1
SA 3 -5
Total – 13 – 29
I think 22 minimum. Dream on, losers.
David Williamson in Crikey:
Any journalist who can turn a man his own party dubbed a “lying rodent”, into the Saint who saved Australia, has, like their idol, a superb grasp of slippery rhetoric which has hopefully earned them enough money to retire. These same scribes have falsely divided Australia into “Howard hating elites”, and “ordinary Australians,” without ever asking the question as to why many with the remnants of a conscience, including “ordinary Australians”, find it hard to stomach him.
The shameless exploitation of fear and hysteria over four hundred genuine and dehydrating refugees on Tampa might be a start. The ludicrous and hugely expensive “Pacific solution” might be another. The moral sleaze of the Saddam kickbacks, the lies of children overboard, the blatant and immoral pork barrelling of Coalition electorates, the attempt to deliver a cowed and cheap workforce to employers without a mandate, the constant and unrelenting grovelling to George Bush, the deathbed conversion to climate change and reconciliation lite – the list could go on.
84 seats ALP
Gains:
Tasmania: Bass, Braddon
SA: Makin, Wakefield, Kingston, 1 of Sturt/Boothby
WA: Hasluck, Stirling
NSW: Bennelong, Lindsay, Dobell, Parramatta, Page, Eden-Monaro
Qld: Blair, Bonner, Moreton, Herbert, Longman, Ryan, 2 of Leichardt/Dawson/Bowman/Hinkler
VIC: La Trobe, Corangamite
I’m just not buying those Labor leaks to Shanahan and Hewitt. Looks very much like the tried and true Labor tactic of talking down expectations.
If Newspoll was good for the Tories it would have been released on Monday morning. The holding over till tomorrow tells me it will be news Howard does not want to hear.
Steve @20
Will we hear a leak tonight on Lateline?
I actually think Bolt has shown himself to be a realist. He has written off the Liberal’s chances in this election although he wants them to win. I have no problems with Bolt. I don’t agree with him on a lot of things but as I said I think he is a realist, unlike Akerman.
There have however been times when the newspoll has been released on time or later but has been more worrying than other ones. Apart from any last week arrowing, there has been no reason why the libs should have gained ground
Gary 22
I do tend to agree. Piers doesn’t hold a candle to Bolt.
Will there even be a Newspoll tomorrow? The marginal seat Newspoll from the weekend had a massive sample (3000+). They might just wait and do a final one during the week and release Friday or Saturday.
19 Charlie – spot on Charlie, they are the last people you would leak factual info to, especially if it is good news for Labor. The last thing Labor needs is the expectation of a big win.
25 Could they do that, in the last two days?
http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/1121%20Marginals%20Two%2019-11-07.pdf
Gary Bruce I would have been under the impression Labor would want to leak factual info, especially if it is good news for Labor such that maximum pressure is applied on to the PM and Coalition
“20
steve Says:
November 19th, 2007 at 5:42 pm
If Newspoll was good for the Tories it would have been released on Monday morning. The holding over till tomorrow tells me it will be news Howard does not want to hear.”
If it were ‘their’ intention to aid Howard then yes a positive Newspoll for the LNP would be leaked as soon as possible to give Howard something to work off. I would imagine.
I think Shanahan just had a bit of morning after regret given his dismissal of the Coalition’s chances on Saturday.
Reading all William’s lead-ins, it sounds more like a narrowing of poll interpretations, rather than any narrowing of polls. We still don’t even have all the poll results in for those done immediately after the Labor launch, which even most conservative pundits had to admit was more reasoned and responsible than Howards’. Still a clear trend towards Labor victory.
Of those professionals actually making predictions, they seem to fall into two camps: those predicting Labor victory, and those sitting on the fence. No professional observer seems to be predicting Coalition victory. Some are saying a Coalition victory is possible; clearly some are hoping for one. But none are staking their reputation on predicting it. In other words, none really believe it will happen. Labor will win. Game over.
The coalition are firming. Sportingbet 4.25 to 4.15. Centrebet 4.00 to 3.90.
The odds are:
Betfair ALP 1.27 / LIB 4.50
Sportingbet ALP 1.22 / LIB 4.15
IAS ALP 1.25 / LIB 4.10
Centrebet ALP 1.26 / LIB 3.90
BV: Looking at those marginals – it looks to be a complete wipeout of all 18.
That’s not including Tasmania.
I still find it hard to believe that Labor isn’t confidant of picking up at least 1 seat in Victoria, given the strength of Labor in the betting markets in La Trobe (which is continually improving).
I’m also surprised about the Libs still being given a chance to win Cowan, when every betting agency has Labor as short-priced favourites in that seat.
But from the above analyses, I see no reason to change my prediction of Labor winning with 81 seats.
P.S. The SMH has always endorsed against the ALP except for 1961 and the Hawke elections (83, 84, 87 and 90). In state elections, it’s even worse – the only time they’ve endorsed the ALP was in 2003.
The BV link would be a 2pp of about 55-45 by my calculations. Seems like a lot of ‘others’.
More Lib dirty tricks in NSW.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/please-explain-libs-preference-one-nation-in-nsw/2007/11/19/1195321677855.html
29 John of Melbourne – you know as well as I do that parties want to be seen as the underdog. There are plenty of people out there who don’t want to see a landlide although they do want a change of government. Why else do you suppose parties vie for underdog status?
Edward,
There is nothing more pathetic than ex Liberal leaders. Menzies died in poverty apparently a committed DLP supporter, Malcolm Fraser after starting out as a right wing troglodyte is now a vilifed left wing troglodyte, John Hewson shafted and shunned, John Gorton ended up running as an Indepedent in the Senate. As for Billy Mcmahon, he is regarded as the biggest joke of a PM mainly by his own side. Andrew Peacock rose to fame without a trace. Billie Snedden died doing what he could never do to Australia.
What are they gonna do to Howard after Saturday.
I suspect that there will not be too much “lerve” .
No one is going to leak internal polling of anything to anybody. Internal polling is closely guarded and too valuable to squander. Polling results are kept to to the campaign team leadership only.
With Newspoll, isn’t the formula:
Leaked by 5pm: Libs coming back
Leaked by 8pm: Same old, Same old
Leaked on Agenda/Lateline: Apocalyptic…..
Centre @ 33,
The movement on Sportingbet is odd, as the Libs have come in 10c, but Labor’s price has not moved. Are they repricing their overound?
There will definitely be a Newspoll tomorrow, and another one on Saturday; that will be the final Newspoll, based on a sample of 2500.
Labor does want to play down expectations a bit to not be seen as completely over the line, and to make their campaign workers go right until polling day.
The last newpoll was 59-41 in Victoria wasn’t it?
Hasn’t it been there all year, except for a couple of polls?
How aren’t they going to win seats in Victoria? Weren’t talking of Goldstein and Kooyong going at one stage?
Gary I agree that parties do vie for underdog status. I just think that they would use all means at their disposal to put maximum pressure on the PM.
Thank god. 5 days and it will all be over.
too scared to watch the news, any leaks?
41, I think the Oz has struck an agreement during the campaign to only leak Newspoll to Sky News’ “The Gallery” program at around 9:30pm. That’s when the wk 3 & 4 Newspolls were leaked. The wk 2 Newspoll was leaked at 9:30pm on Tas Lateline. The wk 5 one was released Mon to allow Dennis & co to cover the Lib campaign launch in detail the next day.
JofM,
You can work out what the internal polls are saying by following where the leaders are going (not what they say and not what any ‘leaks’ say).
For example, this weekend Howard was campaigning in Greenway, whilst Rudd was campaigning in McEwen.
Today, Rudd was in Deakin and La Trobe, whilst Howard is in Cowan.
Note that seats like Lindsay, Bonner, Moreton and Parramatta (all front-line marginals) have not received any attention at all during this election campaign from the party leaders. Both sides are focussed on seats much further up the pendulum.
Howard declaring its Work Choices or bust reminds me of one of the Muslim Jihadi terrorists who thinks there are 42 virgins in heaven awaiting his arrival.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/19/2095012.htm
SirEggo
You are quite right on the Newspoll leaking. If it was good for the Coalition it would have been out by now. I could imagine Labor deliberately holding back favourable information to not appear over-confident, or make the undecided feel it doesn’t matter if they vote for the Prime Weasel. So caution there is rational.
But the Liberals and their cronies have just five days to turn this around by a minimum of 2 to 3 %. There is a media freeze after Wednesday, so they really have less than 48 hours left to influence people into once again believing that they are economic geniuses who have just been unlucky with interest rate rises six times in a row*. Any favourable news they had, that might make people possibly think Howard was still The One, would be being shoved into every media outlet in the country right now. They have none.
*Perhaps we should refer to Liberal economic management as Team Lemony Snickert, a series of unfortunate coincidences.
Sydney Channel 9 news was a virtual ad for the ALP.
And wow I love how the Libs have changed their backdrop to “Don’t risk Labor with the Economy”
They couldn’t even come up with a phrase that could last 6 weeks.
The Blackburnpseph Prediction:
Band 1: 100% of seats to ALP – Lindsay, Parramatta, Eden Monaro, Dobell, Bonner, Moreton, Makin, Kingston, Wakefield, Bass, Braddon – 11 / 11
Band 2: 2/3 of these seats to ALP – Bennelong, Wentworth, Page, La Trobe, Deakin, Corangamite, Blair, Herbert, Petrie, Dickson, Bowman, Longman, Flynn, Stirling, Hasluck, Canning, Boothby, Solomon – 12 / 18
Band 3: just under 50% of seats to ALP – Cowper, Robertson, Paterson, Dunkley, McEwen, McMillan, Leichhardt, Ryan, Kalgoorlie, Sturt, Grey 5 / 11
Only possible loss – Cowan
88 to the ALP, 60 L / np, 2 Ind.
The inverse of the present situation.
It’s not over yet.
We’re coming back.
Howard declaring its Work Choices or bust reminds me of one of the idiots who think there are 42 virgins in heaven awaiting his arrival.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/19/2095012.htm
Laurie Oakes on Sydney 9 News reports a special poll was done in North Sydney and Bailey and Hockey are 50/50 after 2pp. Do not know if the poll was internal polling to one party or the other or if it was independant polling.
All of you handing out HTV in NS on Saturday, good on you
:):)
Appears that NS could go right down to a razor thin margin even with 2pp …..
I’d put Boothby in Band 3 blackburn
I’m pretty sure I heard Laurie Oakes say it was a McNair poll in Nth Sydney saying 50/50. Nothing on McNair’s website or Nine’s as yet.
GP – where is your evidence that you’re coming back?
You’re down in both Wentworth and Eden-Monaro. The most favourable marginal seat poll for the Coalition (Galaxy) puts you down as losing 18 seats, whilst others put the losses as much worse. Every betting agency is giving the Coalition less than 25% chance of winning the election, with the Swing Lowe Bookie Consensus showing 19 seats are predicted to fall.
The news services only get better for Labor. Did anyone see cannel 9 and channel 7 news? Magic.
Swing Lowe I agree.
It was a McNair poll. If its 50/50 in North Sydney- its a wipeout in NSW.
Yep Swing Lowe, the fact Howard was in a 13% Liberal seat on the weekend belies all the bullsh-t about marginals being spewed from the Australian, and the rest of Australia’s hideous print media.
And if Nth Sydney is at 50-50, Wentworth the same or better, the Liberals are ready for an unimaginable defeat (hence why there’s still so many LTEP-style sceptics/self-loathers out there!) I guess it’s hard to imagine the unimaginable!
If JWH and team go down the good thing will be that all of societies ills will be blamed on one party, the Labor party
64 John of Melbourne – Is that a sign of recognition that Labor just might win this election John?
John of Melbourne, good to see that your glass is still half-full!
“Howard declaring its Work Choices or bust reminds me of one of the idiots who think there are 42 virgins in heaven awaiting his arrival.”
This is not the first time that Howard has warned people that if they vote for him, then WorkChoices will NEVER EVER leave. I can think of two other times this year. Of course, at the time, he is usually talking to an audience who likes WorkChoices, such as an employer group, but even so, it’s hardly a great message for public consumption.
Howard lost the plot some time ago.
p.s. I am anxiously awaiting the Newspoll. I take it someone will be watching Sky News at 9.30pm?
45 John of Melbourne – I think underdog status would be seen as more important IMHO. Howard and the Liberal campaign are falling apart all by themselves.
Gary Bruce all the available evidence says so, however I believe (no actually hope) that come election day the Government will be returned. Hopefully what happened in Ireland happens here.
I’ll never tire of Liberal Party supporters saying “We’re coming back” and thinking they’re making some original and witty joke.
Howard and Costello together on Today Tonight on Channel 7 at 6.30pm – billed as the first time in 11 years they have sat down together in TV interview.
What I love about these kind of shows is that they can serve up the wildcard question that none of the minders anticipated.
Pancho @ 66,
JOM subscribes to the Billie Snedden maxim that “the Libs don’t lose, they just don’t have enough seats to form Government”.
Well Loughnane and his band of merry men are doing a great job of grabbing the underdog status, that’s for sure.
Noocat,
Surely you have been on this site long enough that no poll, no matter how small or useless, will escape the attention of Pollbludgers…
JWH was in Greenway on the weekend
I originally said to my mates something along the lines of “if the ALP win Greenway, I’ll deadset swim to New Zealand”
Has anyone got a snorkel?
LOL
Flash — like, what’s the current interest rate?
It’s pretty clear the GG is trying to encourage “one last push” by the Lib party workers, and the ALP is quite happy to go along with this idea.
Shanahan has a high-falutin’ opinion of himself. He has been so comprehensively wrong, so many times, on so many different subjects that the title “Political Editor” is more satirical than descriptive. Don’t forget many of his “best” stories have been sourced from “Labor insiders”. They’re clearly taking him for a sucker and he’s letting himself be used by Labor.
Qu’elle wanker.
Tabitha #1
YOU are are Union Boss troll! Scary! Boohoo.
I knew it all along from your very first post…
Ch7 reports that Libs have already prepared Workchoices Mark 2 but are refusing to release just yet! They are coming back, they are coming back…
Rates Analyst, sorry for doubting you about North Sydney.
Wow! If Labor is even contending in this seat, the Liberals are screwed!
A 10% swing to Rudd in N.S.W would get him something over 10 seats.
GG #72 good work, lol, i’ll pay that one!
Someone once said that, “The people always get the government they deserve.” I believe that and ce sera sera.
As an engineer, if it ain’t broken don’t fix it!
Everyone seems to love ‘we’re coming back’ now. Joe McDonald would have to win any cult-(anti)-hero prize for this election. He seems pretty funny in the snippets I’ve seen of him too.
BTW Baily is still @ $6 on Sportingbet. That’s pretty good odds if this is true!
Yes Ashley, that type – though it still amazes me Howard got a question like that wrong.
Surely, if you get Howard and Costello sitting down together you go in hard on the personal tension stuff though they seem to have the answers down pat on that. Still you never know.
So, are Glen and Steven Kaye the only people who’ll watch Rodent/Smirky on TT?
“Surely you have been on this site long enough that no poll, no matter how small or useless, will escape the attention of Pollbludgers…”
Yep. Just checkin’ anyway!
Pancho… I don’t know… the “Nu-urse!” lady is pretty funny.
It would be interesting to see the primaries in this Nth Sydney poll. I’m guessing that there’s going to be a significant Greens vote here, due to the ‘Doctor’s Wives’ effect.
Why is the coalition shortening? Is it because such high odds were only designed to attract some more money on the Coalition? Or is the newspoll tomorrow going to be a 52-48 affair? I hope not…
George Newhouse down to 2.30
Jim Arneman down to 2.25
(sportingbet)
re post 53 get about 40 seats in play
add about another 5-8
and one gets an idea of what is possible
ALSO
on the weekend I received the 10 page glossy LIB pamphlet along with the normal brochures for big W etc…. why ? as I live in a safe ALP seat!!!!
are they worried about a possible 4/2 split in the NSW senate vote????
The reason Centrebet shortened dramatically at the weekend was a single $160,000 bet on Labor by a Sydney punter. A bit of equilibrium returning now, presumably.
“As an engineer, if it ain’t broken don’t fix it!”
John, I hate that saying. It is nothing more than a recipe for mediocrity. Australians deserve a BETTER government.
Mick, I think they’re sending them out to everyone. I got mine too. It’s actually a pretty funny document that looks so silly and amateurish its bound to swing a vote or two.
Today Tonight is a long running send-up comedy and tonight it will be at its best – Howard and Costello together at last!
*sniff* it brings a tear to my eye. It’ll be a touching interview we’re told!
Noocat, I know its a cliche but that’s how I see things.
Mad Cow: I’m cheering on your bloke Jim Arneman! If the swing is on in N.S.W, Bob Baldwin will be out.
Bailey is actually @ $4.50 at Sportingbet. That’s probably the closest he’s come for a while…
#75, Sir Eggo a friend in Greenway didn’t know who to vote for and quite clueless about the whole process. So I printed Labor’s htv for both houses for her to take into the booth. So get ready to swim!
That changed in the minutes between my post and yours!!!
I’d like some polling from Hughes and Cook: one or both could be interesting.
Bailey $4.50 @ Sporting Bet? I got him a $7.00 only yesterday.
Go you good thing, Mike.
cossie and howie coming up on today tonight – hahahah
Personally I’m hanging out for another Lilley poll. No doubt we’ll see the narrowing which demonstrates Swan is unfit to manage our TRILLION dollar economy.
Yep, confirming Sportingbet odds in North Sydney:
Hockey $1.15
Bailey $4.50
Labor now have a better chance of winning North Sydney than Gippsland.
Lindsay Voter 98
Would like to see how the other 89,998 voters in Greenway vote before I don the Speedos
Now that would be a gross sight!!!! LOL
BV I got on him on Saturday @ $7.00 North SYd has been my no-logic smokey. I admit i let out a bit of a whoop when I watched the Nine news.
But still.. wait till newspoll…
what do pelpe make of the ALP “insiders” comments about polling in Victoria – on the money or just playing down so as to not look over-confident?
I watched both of the commercial news bulletins in syd and they were both ads for labor – momentum is an amazing thing – issues covered were debnam’s remark that the libs should have ratified Kyoto (with Howard looking like he was gonna cry when the journalists put the question to him), the govt cover up over early plans for a workchoices mark 2, Howard saying that definitely Costello will succeed him and that workchoices was a done deal that couldn’t be changed.
Things are going very smoothly. Labor would be keen to dampen expectations with this leaked internal polling since even the govt is playing hard on the hubris/they think they’ve already won it line.
Howard is looking more desicated every day and there’s no doubt a sympathy vote out there for an old man in distress.
That’s a massive movement on Baily in the space of 5-10 minutes!!!
Re JWH’s absence from the marginal seats (except his own) – maybe the MPs elsewhere see his presence as a negative? It would fit with the ‘I’m a local member, not a Liberal’ theme of their campaign.
Labor is going to win.
Liberal is going to lose.
Lindsay Voter 98
Where are the HTV cards? On Labors website?
I’m not going by that order, but I am curious what order they put them in….
Don’t know what happened then?
How can the Coalition be a bad Government if the Kevin Rudd promises to be an economic conservative and run the economy the same way as the Coalition?
How can it be a bad Government that is out of touch if the Kevin has copied 22 of the JWH’s policies and said that he seeks JWH’s advice if he needed it?
Anna Coren just said this on the TT interview with Howard and Costello:
“Prime Minister you are one of the most successful Prime Ministers in history….”
Geez, what an entertainer.
Newspoll (if there is one tonight) prediction:
Can’t go past 54-46, but a 55-45 is possible too.
Why would it be anything else?
Movement to Bailey on Centrebet – he’s into $4.85 from about $7 on the weekend.
What’s this talk about 7 obtaining a document about plans to push WorkChoices further but being injuncted???
John of Melbourne:
Iraq, AWB, Hicks, Haneef, Kyoto, FOI, Regional Roads Funding Scheme, Workchoices, Immigration bungles, incompetence, lack of accountability and corruption = bad government
let me know if you need any more help
Well, to be fair, Anna Coren is giving Pete and John as much of a free hit as Rove gave Kev last night.
Not being fair, what a great big load of bullsh#t.
JOM,
Just watch how it is done after Saturday.
Hahahahaha….. Costello looks like he “really” wants to be sitting there with JHo.
Sorry John, just like JH carping on about Keating, Rudd will have 12 long years of blaming everything in this universe on Howard’s refusal to plan for the future. And everyone will believe it too
Anna just asked them if they are mates. Big YES from both of them. And I have to try and eat my tea after this shit.
Anna Coren.. So far this might be the softest interview in Australian political history.
You see that look on Costello’s face. It is the look of someone imagining John Howard with no clothes on.
7 news lead story FOI rejected on government documents showing the next wave of workchoices changes.
Um – what were you guys expecting from a TT interview? Hard-hitting journalism???
I can’t wait to see what the Chaser does with Anna Coren on Wednesday night. All they need to do is put a great big pair of butt#cks on screen and have Anna kiss them.
119 Asanque-Bingo!
Back to Kyoto, I read that, contrary to popular opinion, there are THREE countries to sign but not ratify Kyoto. The US, Australia and Kazakstan. The coalition of the Ignorant and Greedy! If the Roednt gets back in and Turnbull is rolled, perhaps Borat could be our new Environment Minister.
So what’s the high water mark in NSW? What seats are we ruling out of contention?
I’ll start with the obvious ones. The Nats will not lose Lyne, Parkes or Riverina and the Libs will not lose Farrer, Mitchell, Mackellar or Bradfield. I, personally, will rule out Calare from the Nats and Warringah, Hume, Berowra and Cook from the Libs. Does anyone disagree with these five?
That leaves Cowper and Page from the Nats and Parramatta, Wentworth, Lindsay, Eden-Monaro, Bennelong, Dobell, Paterson, Robertson, Hughes, Gilmore, North Sydney, Greenway and Macarthur in the frame. Anyone disagree?
That today tonight interview with smirk and rodent is the most wincingly scychophantic suck job I’ve encountered for a long time:
She’s even quoting fukcing Alan Greenspan’s praise of them. “youre so great, you’re so respected, can you believe that people are thinking of voting you out’…I’m off to purge..
Anna Coren is asking the hard questions on Today Tonight. Pfft!!!
Anna Coren has redefined dim-wittedness, even by the standards of commercial current affairs. Tracey Grimshaw at least produced some news. That was truly abysmal.
How much did the Libs pay for this ad on Channel 7 with Anna Coren?
Charlie,
I would also rule out Hughes, Gilmore and probably Macarthur. Ordinarily, I would have included Greenway with this bunch, but the fact that Howard campaigned there last weekend gives me some doubt about that…
After that I can understand how Anna’s boss referred to her as a “performer” in last weeks court case with the Chasers. Couldn’t they have got a bigger chair for The Gimp? He didn’t look very “comfortable”
Iraq = Ruddy voted for the war as well! The situation there is getting better and in time it will be seen as a policy triumpf
AWB = Cost of doing business in Iraq, in many places you have to grease the wheels to sell something. As for emails to Downer etc… didn’t Rudd not know about emails in his own office?
Kyoto = Without China and US it’s a joke
Regional Road funding = yes you have a point here but since when are ministers beholden to their departments? Departments are beholden to their ministers.
Work choices = jury still out.
Immigaration = thats always a tricky one for both sides.
Lack of accountability = the people wanted the Coalition to have control of both houses.
Corruption = I don’t deny that there isn’t any as power corrupts.
69 John of Melbourne – can you explain to me how what happened in Ireland can be equated with the situation here. Do they have compulsory boting. Do they have preferential voting. Did Ahern try and impose a much didliked IR system on his people?
Re 129,
Charlie Says:
My money says Warringah will fall. Other than that, I am with you on the rest
The thing about the TT interview: how to see it from the point of view of the ordinary punter. Did it look like two has-beens desperately pleading to stay on, using worn out scare tactics? Or did it come across as two blokes with a proven track record making some telling points about the risks of change?
I’m glad I hadn’t eaten before watching Howard and Costello on TT. Bloody awful and sickening.
Very well put Sean. It saved me looking for the right words. Can’t wait for Saturday to see those two slimey bastards gone – along with the rest of them.
We’ll see what Costello’s got to say about his good mate John then.
#129: Could someone who is more closely acquainted with Calare please give an assessment of the chances that Gavin Priestley, who received the endorsement of the now-deceased former member Peter Andren, might keep the seat in independent hands and out of the National Party’s?
Wonder if the ALP war room is at this moment brainstorming some nice new attack ads built around “Workchoices Mk II”?
Or — and stop me if I’m being paranoid — is this possible the document could be all Tory set up?
Nah — Wkchoices #2 sounds way, way too plausible.
Whoever’s watching TT, has Coren given it any mention?
Swing Lowe re #42.
They were, and still are, offering the best odds of the three heavyweight bookies for the coalition that I am tracking. The fact that they have not eased labor indicates that they are being cautious.
I think (I can’t believe I heard it) Coren even referred to an “economic uptopia” (bet that’ll play well to the TT viewers struglgling to pay off their mortgage…)
Anna Coren is just being polite, its the first time she’s had that kind of attention, she doesn’t want to offend them
I’m sure Rudd would also get a pretty soft go.
Swing Lowe @ 134,
I agree Gilmore is looking unlikely. I think Hughes is a seat that is slipping under the radar. It would be WorkChoices and rates-sensitive. With a margin of less than 9%, I think it’s in play. Macarthur is an *outside* chance of being the seat with the biggest margin to fall. Labor has been talking it up a bit, but that might just be to get under the skin of the Liberal rank and file.
Bailey is down to $4.75! dang!
I live in North Sydney and judging by the amount of junk mail etc I’ve had from Joe Hockey I would say he’s worried.
I estimate he will get back in with a swing about 5-7% against him.
As for the articles at the top. The MSM want a close contest. Gets more attention than a yawnslide.
Overall prediction: ALP 85 seats+ on 53/47
Gary Bruce # 137, my point is simply that the opposition in Ireland lead in the polls prior to the election and then on election day the Ahern was returned, hopefully it happens here.
mad cow,
Which bookie are you talking about?
Flash #139 I think I would tend to your first scenario. Neither of them were wearing jackets, for instance, in what could be seen as a desperate attempt to look relaxed. Howard looked trim and tanned but Peter looked like a boiled potato on legs.
John of Melbourne Says: “my point is simply that the opposition in Ireland lead in the polls prior to the election and then on election day the Ahern was returned, hopefully it happens here.”
Also, I think you should look outside as the easter bunny, santa clause and rip van winkle just drove past in a cat-in-the-hat car!
The right wing media stooges can spin their numbers as they like. 52% will be enough for Labor. You cannot win every close marginal or even enough marginals with 48%. It won’t spread far enough. An inconvenient number!
McManus clearly knows squat all about WA. Try 2 hours behind, Gerard. When I walk out from scrutineering at about 10pm Melbourne time, I hope it will be all over. If you want to know what’s happening in the West try ‘Labor View from Broome’ at http://laborview.blogspot.com/
Well – no political coverage in WA tomorrow with Benny banned for a year….
You profess to being an engineer so you should understand that John. The economy is merely the tool to provide benefit for society, it is not a substitute for society itself and there is much more to society than the economy.
Basic engineering John, only a fool worships a tool.
John of Melbourne, perhaps you are advocating that the LNP go into coalition with the Greens, which helped Fianna Fail over the line in Ireland?
My impression of the TT interview was that it was a free kick for Howard much like Rove was a free kick for Rudd. Importantly, Howard seemed to take his chance to use it and sell his message about the risks of Labor.
This probably will appeal to TT’s key audience (55+), which means that Howard is merely reinforcing his base, much like how Rudd reinforced his base last night.
Gary Bruce # 137,
You’ve got to remember that this is coming from a guy who calls Iraq a triumph. A couple more triumphs like that and the US won’t be a Super Power any more.
142 Schriftsteller
I think there is a chance that Priestley may win Calare, maybe a bit of sentimentality. I use to live in the area, and Andren was well liked
Post 142. In Calare don’t expect anything. The seat’s just too vast now for a largely unknown independent to gain a foothold. Expect Johnny Cobb to win and make his claim as the next Nationals leader.
Sad, isn’t it?
Swing Lowe.. I would be thrilled if TT’s main audience was over-55s but I fear it is not though I don’t know that for sure.
SL sportingbet
JoM: Iraq = Ruddy voted for the war as well!
Um, I don’t think so. Labor voted against the invasion of Iraq.
LOL. Sir Eggo re#75. Mate you should have got on. I got odds of $5.00.
Flash Says: “I would be thrilled if TT’s main audience was over-55s…”
No, I’m sure their viewers’ IQ is under 55
“Work choices = jury still out.” John, you make some reasonable points with the other issues but, please, this is just pure BS.
Flash @ 162,
Yeh, you’re probably right. It does skew older than Rove (obviously), but it depends how old it goes. Overall, it’s a definite positive for the Coalition, but the odds of anything from the interview being replayed ad nauseum like Rudd’s interview with Rove is unlikely (except on Sky, of course…)
John of M-You havent answered Haneef, WMD or SIEV. And there was NO VOTE on going into Iraq. Howard did not put it to a vote. Ignorance is bliss, isn’t it.
SL, about the TT interview. The interesting bit about that interview was the subtext. “Don’t be stupid”. They risk alienating people by all but blaming voters.
80
John of Melbourne Says:
November 19th, 2007 at 6:22 pm
“…….
Someone once said that, “The people always get the government they deserve.” I believe that and ce sera sera.
As an engineer, if it ain’t broken don’t fix it!”
As a non engineeer, If you can improve it, improve it.
Did any of the news programmes have a Newspoll leak?
TT’s main audience is the 18-49 demographic
Yeah, I guess that’s why Joe Hockey is looking at a 10% swing against him in one of the safest Liberal seats in Sydney…
Let it End:
Wrote,
“You profess to being an engineer so you should understand that John. The economy is merely the tool to provide benefit for society, it is not a substitute for society itself and there is much more to society than the economy.
Basic engineering John, only a fool worships a tool.”
Let it End I agree with you wholeheartedly in that the economy is merely the tool to provide benefit for society so too does JWH and Kevin that is why he is an economic conservative.
Sorry John of M. I forgot to add Howard’s unflinching support of the paedophile-sympathiser and protector Hollingworth. Please add that to Haneef, WMD and SIEV.
168: the TT interview is getting coverage on ABC news atm.
I want to nominate Anna for a Walkley
No leak…so far!!!
ABC news shows Howard’s car leaving and a brothel? (Sensations is the name) in the background.
It wasn’t all that positive on ABC news. Climate change and leadership speculation were the main topics.
TT was definitely a free kick For Howard and Costello to send a message to the great unwashed. But what message exactly? Apart from the usual lines about Australia becoming a disaster zone if Rudd becomes PM, one BIG message was that Costello will be PM if the Libs get back in. Howard declared it a certainty – “he will be elected unopposed.”
But did you look at Costello? Shrunken in his chair, looking like a big, lazy, sluggish buffoon, and continually playing himself to Howard’s tune. Do people really want THAT as their PM? Costello looks weak. He doesn’t look anything like a PM, especially when he has Howard there virtually holding his hand.
Bailey @ $4.50 now
b*gg*r me
Diogenes in relation to your post:
“John of M-You havent answered Haneef, WMD or SIEV. And there was NO VOTE on going into Iraq. Howard did not put it to a vote. Ignorance is bliss, isn’t it.”
Haneef = from what is known now it appears that political mileage was sort from this scenario. Do I think people care no not really.
WMD (Iraq) = Sorry what I should have said is that Rudd was for the invasion based on his memo that was sent to th PM and as was shown in the media earlier this year.
SIEV = I’m sorry I don’t know what this means.
Anyway have a great evening y’all I’m off to the beach. May the Coalition have regained 5points in primary voting intention in Newspoll.
Cheers
Of course there’s a dampening down process going on,and why wouldn’t there be given the nature of the swing that’s out there.If your a Tory you should be scared!!!!
Remember that Peter Beattie, no matter how far ahead he was in the polls(and we’re talking 56% here),would always playdown expectations.Goss did the same thing.The prospect of huge landslides always frightens the nervous and enables those who wish to reluctantly protest vote to change back because they’ll win anyway.
The Coalition,perversely also have to dampen things down,it’s in their interest at this stage of the campaign to agree that things are tight.They’re in the business of shoring up seats and saving votes.After all it is decidedly ugly out there at the moment.The workers have to be given the thought it’s still a chance to win so that they’ll turn out to help in the booths.I don’t know about down south,but here when it goes bad the Tory workers don’t show.
As to party polling,as an ex-faceless man,I can tell you no one shares the party polling,not Labor,not the Tories.Only the Campaign Cttee and the Leadership see that sacred stuff.I served on the Admin Cttee for two terms and never saw it.Parties only leak disinformation,nothing more,nothing less.
Rudd should easily be able to get an interview later in the week if he wants. The Today Tonight market probably leans more right in any case… but I wouldn’t pass up on it.
Noocat, they put on a great act for two guys who hate each other, but it does show all the same
John of Melbourne Says:
“SIEV = I’m sorry I don’t know what this means.”
And the Libs wonder why they’re so hated…. pathetic
Read and learn, o ignorant one:
http://sievx.com/
Bailey into $5.00 on Portlandbet. Was $6 an hour ago.
7 Sunny Coast news – Peter Slipper using unregistered trailers for his signs and someone has been putting signs saying “Why vote for Mr Bean” next to his.
#182
Exactly! Would make a great ALP ad with wording “So this is the heir apparent”
“Noocat, they put on a great act for two guys who hate each other, but it does show all the same.”
You mean the forced attempts at gazing wistfully into one another’s eyes and the soft, affectionate laughter at one another’s jokes? Er, to anyone who knows the REAL history, yes, an award-winning act for sure.
Coconut supporters note:
$52K worth of bets are waiting to be matched for Labor on betfair at 1.30 and 1.31. Maybe you all would like to accomodate those punters. Well considering you are all so confident now that you are coming back.
Noocat, yep, all the subtlety of love-in-a-porn-video
I think there’s a world of difference between the benefit Rudd gets from Rove, and the benefit Hostello gets from TT.
Rudd on Rove was funny, engaging, non-boring, non-political politics.
Hostello on TT — and no I’m not watching it, but I think this is a really safe bet — will be talking heads.
There’s a reason TT hardly ever does politicians. Their audience couldn’t give a flying freak.
It is obviously in the interests of both the Coalition and Labor to leak supposed “internal polling” that shows the election will be very close.
It means MPs and party volunteers will work as hard as they can in the last week. It also helps polarise the electorate. People who may have been considering a protest vote for a minor party may change their mind, if it’s very close. I suspect there’s a strong minor party vote – Greens in particular, but Family First and independents too – in quite a few electorates, Wentworth and Bennelong being good examples. The major parties (particularly the Liberals) won’t want to be subject to too many preferences.
The only objective evidence is the mainstream opinion polls, and they’re all saying the same thing (a comfortable to landslide Labor win).
A couple of other observations…
It’s all very well for the pollsters to be conducting polls of Bennelong, Wentworth and North Sydney, because they have high-profile candidates, and give you good headlines. But a poll in this kind of seat only tells you about one seat.
To get a real feel for the election, you need to poll some run-of-the-mill marginals, where candidate charisma is not evident, and most voters couldn’t even name a single candidate. I’d suggest Lindsay, Deakin, Dickson, Dobell, Wakefield, Cowan etc as good examples. If one mortgage belt seat swings, the others will too.
And can I nominate Hughes as a possible surprise packet on election night? In 1996, no-one predicted Labor would lose it. There was a huge swing (13%? I may be wrong), which threw Robert Tickner out on his arse. If it can swing that much against Labor, it can swing that much back again. It’s classic interest rates territory, with young families, child care concerns, interest in education and (no doubt) WorkChoices, and petrol prices.
And I still have a feeling in my waters about Kalgoorlie, though few people (apart from Labor View from Broome) seem to take this seriously.
And yes, the majority of viewers of Today Tonight would be over-55s. Same as the 7.30 Report, ABCRadio current affairs, John Laws, whatever. If it claims to be “news” or “current affairs”, it has an older demographic. There are few opportunities for politicians to speak to younger audiences. That’s why Howard was so stupid not to go on Rove and FM radio.
I remian convinced that this election will be decided by the Under 25s, who will flock to Labor (someetimes via the Greens).
I was able to have a quick chat to Mike Bailey on Saturday. I know him a (very) little through a mutual association. He’s always a happy personable kinda guy so can’t read too much into his positive vibe. He was saying he thought there was only a percent in it either way and he was quietly confident. He also relayed that Bob Hawke had bumped into Hockey (looking far from happy) at an airport or something very recently. Hawkey says “why so glum Joe?”, “I think Bailey’s probably got me” was the response.
Labor seems to be going pretty hard in Macarthur. We had a couple of Rudd visits early on, and there are a couple of very big and expensive looking billboards on the M5. I’ve also seen a mobile billboard around and they are running ads on the local radio targetting Farmer (you voted for Workchoices).
Betamax @196.
But I am sure they will be delighted to know that Australia has politicians too.
Today Tonight has a much broader audience than over 55s. A 19 year old girl at my work watches it religiously. I get to hear all the details about the latest shonky con men on a daily basis.
Looks like Newspoll won’t be released until “The Gallery” program on Sky News at 9:30pm. The last time it was released there, they didn’t get to the actual poll until 9:50pm.
Just what is a “Jennifer Hewitt”?
Does it live on this planet, or is it some microbial life form that lives bereft of sentience on some globule in a distant galaxy?
Let’s quote this mono-braincelled life form:
“Even interest rate hikes were making people just a little nervous about the prospect of making a change. NSW seats such as Eden-Monaro and Page, which Labor must win next Saturday, suddenly looked much tighter.”
Let’s see the current Sportingbet odds:
EDEN MONARO
ALP 1.15
LIB 4.50
PAGE
ALP 1.60
LIB 2.20
And finally, to put this poor creature out of its misery, which seats figure on the top ten best gainers for Labor across 3 betting agencies in the last ten days (courtesy of Simon Jackman). Yep, numer one and number seven respectively…you guessed it:
PAGE
EDEN MONARO
Someone squash the bug please, it’s not welcome on this planet.
I question if Joe really is in danger for he is on the Channel 7 panel, be interesting to see if he shows up, from what I know of North Sydney it has no natural ALP booths and there are not too many marginal TPP booths.
Please let it be true!!!
It will be a well replayed moment if Hockey realsies he lost his seat on national tv
Charlie at 19 : “I’m just not buying those Labor leaks to Shanahan and Hewitt…”
Me neither. No self-respecting Labor apparatcik would give a hack like Shanahan the time of day.
Grog at 52: “And wow I love how the Libs have changed their backdrop to “Don’t risk Labor with the Economy”..
Noticed that too. Is it any wonder the Coalition’s gonna get trashed, come Saturday?
They can’t even stay on message for the duration of the formal campaign. WTF happened to “Go for Growth”? Maybe it was ditched becasue the punters were starting to associate it with growth in interest rates.
The Coalition performance has been a text-book example of how not to run a political campaign. They’re panicking and the “message”, such as it is, is all over the place. How can they possibly expect people to pay attention?
I think ebb and flow is washing around Costellos feet as well,just quietly.Only 8.8% and when the swing is on all defend!
re post 129 i would not rule out Calare as an independent win
I must say, I’ve been surprised how many more Mike signs I’ve been seeing as opposed to Joe signs in front yards near me.
Today Tonight does not rate in the top 25 programs for the 18-25s. It rates between 20th and 25th in the 25-54s. It rates most highly in the 55+ demographic.
However, I would be pretty sure it has a younger audience that A Current Affair or the 7.30 Report, and there certainly would be a good selection of younger viewers watching, including mortgage belt parents.
If Howard and Costello decided to appear together on one show, Today Tonight would probably be the best (if they didn’t fancy Rove).
Well yes, I believe North Sydney is one of two original Federation seats that has never been won by the ALP (the other being Wentworth). Adam’s map (linked below) gives a good indication of the layout of the seat. The areas closer to the train line seems to be less blue ribbon Liberal than the rest of the seat. Being a native North Shorian, I am extremely sceptical that the ALP could claim the seat, but would love to be proved wrong.
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/2007maps/northsydneybig.shtml
After seeing how buddy-buddy JHo and Costello were on TT and all their talk about their relationship being like a marriage, I suspect that if they went on Rove, they’d have to say they’d turn gay for each other
Although its nor good to be cocky, there is the chance that the ALP may gain more affluent votes than we ever believe given the same thing happened in the UK in 1997. Despite this, we need to take into account differences in the two countries. Nevertheless, it is possible that the ALP may gain affluent seats like the coalition gains battler seats due to the doctors wives phenomenon and this may be the basis of a new political climate
@50 Greeensborough Growler Says:
“Howard declaring its Work Choices or bust reminds me of one of the Muslim Jihadi terrorists who thinks there are 42 virgins in heaven awaiting his arrival.”
I read in Irshad Mahnji’s book “The Trouble With Islam” that the 72 virgins as reward for martyrdom thing may be a linguistic error. Its actually 72 raisins.
Hmm, Rattus, deposed, gets 72 dried up grapes on the night??
A lot better image to have in the head that him with 72 virgins. Or wait, him with 72 virgins at beck and call, and Hyacinth in the background, scowling??
Today I received my third latter of the campaign from my Blue ribbon Liberal MP, opening line, earlier in the campaign I promised to send you another letter, then launched into a four page letter.
I disagree, JWH does not understand that at all.
The economy is important but Kev understands it’s basic purpose and relationship to society. Howard and Costello on the other hand do not, they are mere fools worshipping the tool itself in spite of society.
Maybe Labor could ‘me too’ the lib slogan and run with ‘go for growth with new leadership’. The Libs don’t seem to need their slogan anymore.
Also, just for you mad cow, odds narrowing for Patterson 1.60-2.20. I predict that this will be the next to go to Labor on the betting front.
You can still get $6.50 on Mike Bailey at IASbet.com if you think he’s got a reasonable shot.
John of Melbourne 80:
So as an engineer, you’d be happy for us all to still be driving Model-T Fords? With Rudd we’re not “fixing it” but moving to a superior model!
Dave, this is insane.. I have several bookie’s up and I’m having to refresh every ten minutes
“The Coalition performance has been a text-book example of how not to run a political campaign.”
Brian Loughnane is transferring his sterling Victorian election performance into the Federal arena.
I can’t believe the shortage of positive Coalition ads, given that they’re boasting about the good economy. I have yet to see an ad saying that tax cuts are coming, that unemployment is really low etc.
OK, we have to xpect the fear campaign, Labor can’t manage the economy, Labor is a tool of the unions, etc. But is that all there is, ad nauseum?
Why do we see ads about how high interest rates were under Whitlam? The only people still alive who would have paid interest rates under Whitlam would have paid off their houses long ago, been able to send their kids to uni for free, and are thinking about retirement homes and spending their super.
I just asked my 17-year-old daughter what she knew about Whitlam. She said she’d heard of him, but didn’t know who he was. She said all the Coalition ads featured people she hadn’t heard of.
Hello, fellow Bludgers. Have been mostly absent due to work commitments, till today. There’s a wonderful piece on 7.30 Report about Turnball funding a company to the tune of $10 mill. to make clouds, with absolutely damning evidence from eminent scientists saying it’s a load of total rubbish. These guys are so good.
Newspoll prediction. It was a 54-46 2PP lead for Labor last week so this time (post-Liberal and Labor launches) what about 56-44 2PP for tomorrow’s Newspoll easing back to 55-45 for the last Newspoll before the election.
Tonight’s 7.30 Report is going after Turnbull – seems he may have been snookered by some phony Russian physicists claiming to be able to use the ionosphere to produce rainfall. Not a good look for Malcolm – given the $10 Million he’s blown (err, authorized) be spent on this…
The Howard government is masterfull at covering its tracks.
Monday November 19, 07:29 PM
Govt ’shelved plan’ to boost IR laws
The Howard government secretly planned to take its unpopular Work Choices laws further two years ago but shelved the idea, documents confirmed on Monday.
But voters will not be allowed to know what the government was planning, with a two-and-a-half year Freedom of Information (FOI) battle failed on Monday.
The Administrative Appeals Tribunal (AAT) ruled that releasing the details was not in the public interest, saying the government was accountable for what it had done but not for what it might be planning to do.
#225
link for full article:
http://au.news.yahoo.com/071114/2/14xb0.html
Kiwi @233, isn’t there going to be another, final, newspoll at the end of the week?
#222 The story about Turnbull on the 7.30 Report is a goodie, eh Harry. I used to work (briefly) for Matt Handbury, and while he was an extraordinarily indulgent and good employer, he always was a bit of nut-job. I’m not surprised that he’s involved himself in this sort of hoo-haa, but am surprised that Turnbull has fallen for it. Perhaps I should revise my opinion of Malcolm’s intellectual powers.
mad cow, I can’t explain it, all I can think of is people jumping on a good price and hoping for the best. I’m in Newcastle and work in Maitland but I haven’t seen much from Arneman at all it all Big Bob.
Dave I saw a Jim Arneman ad earlier tonight. He looked pretty good on it.
I reckon Newspoll at 57/43 for the ALP. ALP had a good week, and it would put the fear of Kevin the Barbarian into the Libs in this last week.
That said, anything 54 or over for the ALP and i’m happy.
OK ……. news from the 7:30 report and not a poll ….. it is better …..
paraphrasing from memory ….. Turnbull has used 10 million of taxpayer dollars to funnel it into a company that claims to be able to make rain. Research for helping the drought he says. Money approved before election was called. This company is dodgy at best with their plans and what they want to do to try to seed clouds – debunked by a world respected climate scientist from Israel. THEN THIS SAME COMPANY TURNS AROUND AND DONATES MONEY TO TURNBULLS ELECTION CAMPAIGN!!!
I smell something rotten in Wentworth …….
Oh Arthur Sinodinos – yr political skills remained with you to the end…including that timely parachute straight into a lucrative bank sector gig (not something that’s questioned here as in some countries like the US).
On the Newspoll. If you believe polls reflect campaign moments then it should be stable or slightly better for the ALP.
If you don’t believe they have any effect it could be anything under the sun, 52-56%.
Mad cow,
I’m predicting two Newpolls being released this week with 55-45 for the final one at the end of the week (released on Friday). But the again I could be wrong about there being two Newspolls released this week!
“I smell something rotten in Wentworth …….”
Now there’s an understatement!
Wow, just tuned in and noticed the first three posts on this thread all within one minute of each other. Then I noticed the authors.
Just a tad incestuous.
Comrades, am I right in stating that Labor only needs 14 seats to win? My logic is that if it is 74-74, Windsor has stated he will support the party with the highest TPP ie Labor, so that’s 75. Bob Katter will either then have to force a second election (and risk being assassinated) or support Rudd (evidently he hates the Rodent and Serfchoices).
Diogenes, that’s how I see it too. Many people are saying Katter would not back Labor… but he’d have little choice. Back Labor or force Australia to another election. He’s already thrown out a lifeline in setting a mandatory ethanol target and will be able to appease his electorate with that.
I posted the following, more or less, on Larvatus earlier today in response to piece there, but I think it applies equally well here.
Three things:
1) Over time, parties in government suffer “cumulative damage”. There are things over time that some people simply feel they can’t forgive, and they add up. In Howard’s case there have been a few at just about every election – getting lied to about “Children Overboard” and Iraq and the like , the ramping up of racial and cultural tension, the sycophancy with the US, the wheat board scandal, and, in this election, the absence of any meaningful response to climate change and the perception of broken promises about interest rates. Most people might not change their individual voting decision over any one of them, but some will, and they become part of “the vibe” around the local watercooler and on talkback radio. Ultimately the tarnish builds up to a point where, unless a party is genuinely able to “reinvent” itself, through a leadership change or some such, it starts to smell and that 20% of people who aren’t wedded to one side or the other start looking elsewhere. If the other mob aren’t obviously on the nose, then they change their vote.
2) Parties get arrogant and tired. They start assuming they are the “natural party of government”, start taking short cuts, get caught out.
3) The Libs/ Conservatives never do well when there are real clouds on the horizon in Australia. WW1, the Depression, WW2, the major changes across the world during the late 60’s and early 70’s all lead to the election of Labor governments when the threat became obvious. Hawke/ Keating were elected when the world economic pressures that had confronted the world from the early 70’s ultimately looked to be beyond the abilities of the Fraser/ Howard government. Howard/Costello were put back in when things were back under control.
Today environmental (and geopolitical) issues loom over all of us. Labor is generally seen at the ballot box (quite accurately) as possessing better intellectual credibility and greater toughness when such things arise. Costello, for example, would never have had the guts to give us “the recession we had to have” in the face of opposition from Howard. Keating did, in the face of Hawke, though I personally hated him for it at the time. Ultimately Keating’s correct decisions gave Howard/Costello a free ride for an extended period.
The ride is over. The world faces different problems today. Howard and Costello are still playing as if the essential “issue” is the resentment that people felt about the the hard decisions that Keating made. Neither of them show the slightest sign of being able to rise to the current set of challenges. In truth it is very hard to see anything much that they have actually done in the area that they claim as their own – “Australia’s economy” – that doesn’t either rest on the earlier, much harder, Labor reforms or on international factors such as the resources boom. Simply put, they have been coasting for 11 years.
They have no idea about how to reposition Australia in a world in which the US is losing its status as the world’s dominant economic power. They have no idea how to deal with the massive environmental issues.
They have no idea about how to “place” Australia in terms of the big geopolitical issues beyond simple endorsement of the “Bush doctrine”.
They also have no idea about how little “middle and less than middle Australia” are paying for the growing wealth of Australia’s “top dogs”, and how much most Australians resent huge pay rises for execs and the like while the rest of us are facing a situation where wages don’t keep up with the real cost of living and the level of decent public service in areas like health and education goes down the proverbial dunny.
It is all very well running a “fear campaign” (and they have done precious little else other than offering a few bribes this time round), but one gets the feeling that Howard and Costello have absolutely no idea about what Australians are actually frightened of these days, and don’t have the nouse or humility necessary to find out!
Cheers
Rod
No 240
I totally resent your comments with respect to saying that the ALP has higher intellectual credibility.
What a load of partisan rubbish.
Actually I’m not a fan of members of safe Liberal seats (8%+ margins) getting a scare, though it’s enjoyable to see them sweat for the moment. Every safe Lib seat that becomes a marginal but doesn’t fall means that the statewide swing to the ALP is being diluted in the close seats that really count.
Maybe that’s why Rudd has been campaigning in an increasing number of safeish (5-10%) Liberal held seats, because he can see the potential for this. Not everything a politician says is doublespeak that has to be parsed – Rudd might genuinely believe that gaining the necessary seats to win will be difficult, he’s taking no chances, and it’s not because he wants to mess with the minds of certain Liberal politicians.
Though, as the last NewsPoll assured, there seems to be plenty of swing to go around …
one ad
two versions
labor version
nicole and kate singing in the rain,jumping up and down “kevin 07 its heaven”
liberal version
dana and bronwyn “singing me too”
the choice aint hard for the soft voter
WorkChoices changes:
Updated: 20:50, Monday November 19, 2007
Just five days out from the election, the Howard government has taken legal action to stop secret changes it considered making to WorkChoices from being revealed.
http://www2.skynews.com.au/news/article.aspx?id=201645
LOL, I have noticed that coincidence quite often actually
Can’t see Newspoll being anything other than pretty close to the final result of between 53 to 54 ALP. It it’s any more than that then voting is just a waste of time and money, AEC should just declare a Rudd Govt and cancel the election.
The final Newspoll is always published on Sat, the day of the election, and taken Wed/Thur nights.
Diogenes and LTEP, being at the mercy of Bob Katter the Mad Hatter for 3 yrs would be awful for the good governance of this country. I’d hate the Coalition being returned, but Bob Katter holding the balance of power would wreck this country. 75 seats is required for Labor, with Windsor’s support; he seems reasonable to me.
A good summary, Rod (240). This sorry excuse for a government has been missing in action on the significant issues facing this country, and the have been downright incompetent in many others.
Hey all, I’ve been working on a Monte Carlo statistical simulation for the election using the swing as a distribution. I’ve sent off an email to William to get a little more info about the distribution and that.
Just so you know, even with 10m simulations the Coalition didn’t win one result if the ALP had a swing of 6.7% (TPP of 54%). I was motivated due to a discussion today due to someone making the wild remark that Labor could lose even at a TPP of 54%.
Hopefully William will give me some tips and I will do up a lovely UI for it, and I will provide it as an open source simulator for anyone who wants it.
New thread up.
Imacca @ 214,
I reckon you might be one very pissed terrorist if you get to heaven and cop 72 raisins and not 72 virgins.
Like one of those ads that encourage you to write away for the ten gratest hits for $10. You send your money off and sure enough you get a letter with your name and nine others who sent $10.
You know, I wouldn’t be all that surprised if there were only nine or ten regular posters on this site.
211
KT Says:Well yes, I believe North Sydney is one of two original Federation seats that has never been won by the ALP (the other being Wentworth). Adam’s map (linked below) gives a good indication of the layout of the seat. The areas closer to the train line seems to be less blue ribbon Liberal than the rest of the seat. Being a native North Shorian, I am extremely sceptical that the ALP could claim the seat, but would love to be proved wrong.
Yr read of the Nth Sydney electorate isn’t too far off. The railway/highway corridor down the centre of the seat has gone through enormous demographic changes in recent years and is now very marginal territory, period. I am expecting this area to swing heavily to Labor.
Joe has good reason to be worried. Whilst my instinct tells me that he will probably survive, his margin may be down as low as 2-3%. He is most likely to be saved by the strong Lib booths on the eastern fringes of the seat such as Cremorne & Castlecrag and moreso areas like Woolwich and Hunters Hill where there is a large Armenian community.
Mike Bailey was an excellent choice as a candidate for this seat. He has a massive recognition factor; clearly media experienced and articulate and certainly not someone who is going to scare away the punters. It’s far from out of the question that he MAY win the seat, and it will be good “celebrity candidate” choice that will have added those vital extra percentage points to the vote.
Lord D, Labor could easily shaft Katter off to the Speaker role, thereby banishing his influence to situations where Windsor sided with the Libs.
I believe state Labor have managed minority government and Rudd would cope just fine. I’m fine with anything that gets rid of this government.
That’s interesting news about Turnbull on the 7.30 report. Incidentally he and Lucy are hosting private drinks for select gay community representatives in Wentworth tonight. Not going to be too much joy for him there after party positions on the HREOC discrimination report were published during the week.
Costello would be PM unopposed: Howard:
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=305877
Well I oppose Costello being PM and I will be having my say on Saturday and that will be final.
LTEP: Actually minority ALP governments seem to do way better in the next election. Vic ALP, and QLD ALP did just that. I don’t know if that could be translated to a federal ALP, but it would depend on how things are run.
William,
A suggestion, whenever you post a pointer to a new thread, perhaps you could huperlink it so people can click on the thread and it opens in a new browser tab or window.
shanahan is off to washington if labor wins.
It will be interesting to see next week whether the Smirk will be elected opposition leader unopposed.
Most certainly, Marktwain. He looks like Joh with the silly engine for cars. Can’t quite recall what it was he (Joh) got sucked in by, in terms of means of propulsion, but was obvious that with a minimum understanding of chemistry, it was dumb. Similarly, with Malcolm, he just winds up looking like a very expensive (for the tax payer) goose. This administration goes from worse to worse, in relation to tackling some serious problems confronting us, and the most inept campaign I think I’ve ever seen in my life.
something to send your (otherwise) undecided friends: how they should vote on Saturday http://www.howshouldivote.com.au/default.aspx
So, is anyone prepared to call the marginals in Victoria?
Antonio at 221: “Why do we see ads about how high interest rates were under Whitlam?…”
The most pro-Labor demographic in each of the polls conducted over the last 12 months have been the under-30’s. These guys weren’t even a gleam in their Old Mans’ eye when Gough got the boot. How the hell are arcane references to something that happened before they were born supposed to mean anything to them?
I mean, you might as well bang-on about stuff that happened during WW2 or the Great Depression: “Vote for us, we’ll send more Rats to Tobruk” or “Vote for us, we”ll keep the Susso coming”
Ditto the “Union-Thug” thing.
The last time this country saw any significant level of Industrial disputation was in the late 1970’s-early1980’s. That’s ancient history to these kids. They were, what, 5 years-old at the time? And the “Unions-will-eat-your-children” ads are supposed to mean something to them?
They mean sweet FA. They simply don’t connect, because there is no shared experience to connect to.
What does connect is the Labor theme about housing affordability and mortgages. A mortgage is something they do have experience with. And since 2004, they’ve had the experience of 6 separate rate rises. Do ya reckon they’re happy campers?
The Libs have run a pathetic campaign.
As for the 7.30 Report’s expose of Malcolm’s “Rainman” funding, I suspect that discovering that their local candidate has been doing a De-Anne with some of his campaign contributors might be the last straw for the good burghers of Wentworth.
Come Saturday, I reckon it will be raining for the Libs in Wentworth after tonight’s program.
Charlie @ 129 ( if you are still on). You may want to reconsider Cook as safe for the Libs. I have got some good mail from their campaign that it is going to be very close. In fact a good friend says that he is convinced that it is “already in the bag.”
anyone who thinks hockey will lose north sydney is dreaming (as much as I would like to see it fall).
There are positive noises about Macarthur though.
Leaving aside the negative Lib ads, how positive as the ALP’s been? I think the Unions laid the ground work beautifully for this campaign and the ALP has just followed on with that.
Mr Skywalker:
Corangamite, Latrobe and McEwen. That’s all.
262, Yes – I am calling Corangamite and LaTrobe
Tabitha – Im coming back.
#100
Cook – Liberal hold easy.
Hughes- The marginal will be reigned in but Dana Valle will hold. Expect it to fall next time though….
Well, said, Rod at 240.
Its basically true: if you cast any eye over Australian history, the Tories always get dumped at the first sign of difficult times ahead. Sometimes they get reelected later (eg 1932, 1975), but they’re first port of call in a storm.
The coalition are essentially the cruise mode party, when Australians arent worried about too much, and want a big kip for a decade.
First sign of trouble, and the punters get serious – and boot them out.
Consider the evidence:
4 August 1914: Britain declares war on Germany.
17 September 1914: Australia dumps Joseph Cook (Commonwealth Liberal) for Andrew Fisher (Labor).
October 1929: US Stock market crashes
October 1929: Scullin (Labor) defeats Stanley Bruce (UAP)
October 1941: Independent MPs dump Menzies for John Curtin. Relected in massive landslide in 1943 (estimated 2PP 58.2%)
December 8 1941: Pacific War breaks out.
etc
Bogged down in loser war 1972, Oz calls Whitlam
Stagflation late 70 early 80s, Oz calls Hawke.
etc etc
‘they’re never first port of call’, that should have said.
An interesting piece in the Canberra Times today by Bruce Kent, a visiting fellow at the ANU. It compares the Howard government to Hitler’s regime (thus disobeying the internet law whose name I forget, that you DON’T compare your enemies/subjects/opponents to Hitler. Frankly, I’m surprised the CT published it and there will probably be howls in tomorrow’s letter columns.
(I think Bruce Kent is entirely accurate and stating the bleedingly obvious.)
Sorry my html skills are non-existent: you’ll need to copy the following url and paste it into your address box:
http://canberra.yourguide.com.au/news/opinion/opinion/familiar-ring-to-coalition-style/1088565.html
Maybe a fellow PB lurker/poster in the ACT with more IT skills than I have could (a) make a proper link; and (b) occasionally send links of Canberra Times items to PB.
There’s some well-considered stuff in the rag, particularly in relation to public service impacts of a change of government. (The Canberra Times is a Fairfax publication now that Rural Press has been bought by Fairfax.) Their reliance on Pat(t)erson (spelling?) for polling is disappointing. I’d love the CT to conduct a poll of Senate voting intentions in the ACT but if they use Patterson, it’ll be suss.
For those of you on PB who think that how the ACT votes on Saturday is a great big yawn, let me remind you of this: Territory senators take their seats on Day 1 of the new parliament, unlike state senators who only take their seats on 1 July 2008. GetUp has conducted/ is conducting an enormous campaign in the ACT to unseat Liberal Senator Gary Humphries. The ALP and Greens have a deal to swap preferences. The campaign is based squarely around the premise that if Howard gets back but the ACT votes out Humphries, then Howard loses his Senate majority from the first day of the next parliament and not just in July 2008. This is hugely relevant as an insurance policy if Howard slimes back in.
No 268
Try to keep the expletives to a minimum, Joe.
Anyone else notice the only channel not be running election coverage on Saturday evening, Channel 10, is running “The Empire Strikes Back”!
I wonder if this is an omen that Darth Howard will crush the rebelion lead by Luke Rudd! Will Han Garrett get frozen in carbonite and Leia Gillard be sold to slavery under Costello the Hutt?
I guess only time will tell
No 272
Anyone who compares the Howard government with Hitler has no credibility at all. It’s simply inappropriate, whether for Liberal or Labor.
All of the Rudd huggers expect so much from this election and since you will not achieve all that you desire you’ll likely be disappointed with the result.
The Victorian seats wont fall unless it’s a landslide and its not going to be a landslide. Rudd can only win this election from NSW and QLD he needs 10 from them and 3 from SA and 2 from Tassie, even so with 15 seats he loses Katter won’t back Labor, Windsor maybe.
No 272 :
Greens had it in the bag for the 2nd Senate seat. Kerrie is a local who is well-known and well-liked from local ACT Govt years.
Lib guy is locally unpopular for the same reasons, even amongst the almost infinitesimally small Liberal voters in the ACT region.
However, as of today – for the first time in the 22 years I’ve lived here, Liberals are offerring us “pork”?????
Save the National Botanic Gardens??
Shock, horror! That is desperation!
Do you know, after seeing the 7:30 report, I ‘m starting to take a closer look at Mrs Cornes?
What I mean is, I know that she can sometimes string two or three whole senteces togethor in a row, she’s blonde and cute, so why not vote for her?
Seriously, if you live in Boothby and you already think Kevin’s going to roll it in, so your know your vote doesn’t count why not vote for Cornes and have something entertaining on the TV over the next three years
William:
Re my comment at 272 above: Please no-one comment on my internet unsavviness. I haven’t the slightest clue why a thing I put into my comment suddenly gets turned into an active link. It’s magic.
If you say so Glen
Anyone else notice the only channel not be running election coverage on Saturday evening, Channel 10, is running “The Empire Strikes Back”!
Shows how seriously they take the whole thing, I suppose.
Not to worry. The Empire always gets it’s arse kicked.
Mr Squiggle did the ABC say that anybody they interviewed about Cornes was a Labor Member or that any of those people at her street corner soap box speeches were Labor Members. She is a ding bat and Southcott has got things done for Boothby what has Cornes ever done for Boothby, spend money on clothes that’s about it (helping the local economy – Rudd speak).
Cornes should have studied some politics at University. Even a 1st year politics student would know Labor’s policies, she knew none and yet she wants to be the local MP WTF?
How is she going to help her constituents give them shopping/style advice???
At least the poor lady in Sturt who will be defeated has more ‘political brains’ than Nicole, even so didnt she turn down a shot at Adelaide in 2004 maybe she’s not as smart as i thought.
Needless to say that Rudd’s Kyoto ratification and emissions targets are a Bennite Solution, without even looking at the impact on the economy. This is the thin end of the wedge here if we mess this balance up between economy and environment we’ll lose lose.
Victoria is having an unseasonally hot week this week. Melbourne feels completely bleached out, as though it’s mid-February when it’s only mid-November.
Water has been a huge issue down here. Don’t estimate the extent to which that will tip more than a few marginal voters Labor’s way, when you see Howard hee-hawing again that “yes climate change is a significant challenge” but waffle, waffle, waffle..
Because women can’t know anything about politics. They only care about shopping!
We’ll see who’s laughing on Satruday night, won’t we Glen?
Glen, you say it wont be a landslide, at what time on Saturday do I look for your correction.
No Steph, the Labor candidate in Sturt she knew something about politics, Cornes on the other hand, knows nothing except some slogans from Rudd.
Glen,
Liberals will lose lose.
They are losing losers who will lose.
GG never pre-empt the people of Australia, we’ll find out on Saturday night. But i sincerely doubt it will be a landslide of 30+ seats they aren’t waiting for us with baseball bats even if we did lose it would be by less than 10 seats i believe.
Cornes is not a pollie. Neither were most of the Howard Pot Plants swept into parliament in 1996.
The difference is, the Howard vegetation is in for a major pruning.
It really will be Bonsai after the 24th.
No 288
Grow up.
Evan we can be assured that they at least knew Coalition policy before signing up as a candidate, Cornes knows nothing about Labor politics.
Generic Person,
Blog somehing intelligent you Liberal loser.
GG why is it so hard for you to debate a tory on Australian politics without resorting to childish name-calling?
What about the Tasmanian who quit as the Liberal candidate for Bass because of the pulp mill?
The great thing about having Cornes in Parliament is that you Liberal losers will be suffering in your jocks.
Maintain the faith (or for people of my generation, maintain the rage!)
The Oz politics Web site shows the following poll results for the Coalition.
2PP (most recent)
Morgan FTF 43.5
Newspoll 45.0
Nielsen 46.0
Galaxy 46.0 The simple unweighted average is 45.1%
Turning to the straight line of best fit starting from 01/03, the extrapolation to Nov 24 is
Morgan 42.7
Newspoll 45.2
Nielsen 46.0
Galaxy 46.2 The simple unweighted average is 45.0%
Turning to the straight line of best fit starting from 01/04 the extrapolation to Nov 24 is
Morgan 42.5
Newspoll 45.1
Nielsen 45.6
Galaxy 46.2 The simple unweighted average is 45.0%
I take some comfort from the fact that the latest available polls are completely in line with the long term predictions. 55/45 looks eminently achievable and this would surely be (in JHo’s own words) “annihilation” . Couldn’t happen to a more deserving bunch!!
Glen says: “Evan we can be assured that they at least knew Coalition policy before signing up..”
Really? Told them all about Workchoices did he? They sure kept pretty quiet about it.
Frank,
Where is Fitzroy Crossing? Weather Channel says it is forcast for 49 tomorrow (in WA)
Not Bass ShowsOn and our policy was yet to be finalised on the pulp mill oh and i believe the seat was Lyons.
Anyway he supported the Greens before hah, still even he had more of a grasp of politics than Cornes.
Glan said ‘This is the thin end of the wedge here if we mess this balance up between economy and environment we’ll lose lose.’
Yep, couldn’t agree more. But I’d like to leave some sort of habitable planet for my nieces and nephews to live on. How much has the ‘War on Muslims’ (sorry I meant to type ‘Terror’) cost JWH adnn Bush – and wouldn’t it have been better for that money to have been spent on cliamte change solutions?
Just a thought – you should try having them Glen.
I sent a note to a young relative via Facebook to vote for a change in govt. She replied that she was going to vote Liberal this time so I fired a long message as to why she should not vote for Howard. Her response “I meant Labour (sic)……Actually I thought Howard was Labour but I will vote Labour”. She’s born and bred in this country!
Evan you made the comparison with MPs in 1996, in 1996 there was no workchoices! Just for your information oh course.
What Labor really needs right now is an alarmingly close Newspoll, like 52 to 48, just to make the punters realise they need to put their shoulder into it, to be rid of the Coalition.
Uhhhh Glen,
Sorry buddy, but I actually watched the 7:30 with the sound turned down, basically I didn’t want to get put off my dinner with their usual lefty stuff,
Seriously, though, she’s cute, I bet if she’s elected she’ll be asked to sit behind Kevin Rein, next to the other one Kate Ellis, they could discuss fashion, or shoes or how to get more of thier sort into parliament, now that they’ve both found a party that makes a joke of pre-selection processes
It’s in the Kimberley Region.
http://www.discoverwest.com.au/western_australia/fitzroy_crossing.html
True Squiggle maybe they could give Gillard a hand lol!
#283 Yes Flash, it’s a bloody hot week in Victoria, and the forecast is for more warm weather in Melbourne at the weekend. No doubt country areas will be even hotter. election day won’t be a suitable occasion for climate change denial. Dunno whether the bushfires will still be burning on Saturday, but they might be.
More hubris from Glen again,name calling and all.Rudd hugger doesn’t rhyme,Howard Hugger does.But I think,after the 7.30 Report,Costello beat you to the job.What a pair!!!LOL!!!!
Mate,you are in for an awful shock Saturday night.LOL!!!!!
Oh dear Mr Squiggle, bringing up fashion just because both candidates are young and female? Although I suppose you’d do the same if they were recent male law students/graduates. Right?
No 309
Both terms are poetically defunct.
#299/#366 Not only is Fitzroy Crossing in the Kimberley – it’s in the seat of Kalgoorlie. Mind you, 49 degrees is not unheard of there.
272 PH So you think Howard and the Liberals are like the National Socialist Worker’s party heh?
So they hate Jews and Christians, worship the environment, and think they are superior to other groups?
I can think of one party like that in Australia, but it ain’t the Liberals.
GP,Truly,how so??? LOL!!!!
Surely,you’re more thick skinned
LOL!!!Another to be disappointed on Saturday night.
I just love the gratuitous sexism of the Liberal losers on this blog. The reason you are losing so badly is that you don’t understand what is really going on in electorate Australia.
I love it! Talk about work choices, talk about Kyoto, talk about interset rates and how good the Libs are at managing the economy.
Pout and and maintain your sniggers at the Labor candidates. It just shows time after time after time that you are so out of touch.
I mean, Howard came out today proclaiming that if you vote him out, his IR reforms will be in danger. Hello, that is why he is about to lose this election. Talk about playing Russian Roulette with six bullets in the chambers.
fitzroy crossing between broome and kunnunurra- north west. think warumpi band “black fella, white fella”.
Generic P. at 241 says:
“No 240
I totally resent your comments with respect to saying that the ALP has higher intellectual credibility.”
Now why did being addressed as “240″ when I’d given my name in the post make me feel like a character out of 1984!
Sorry “Generic 241″, but the other “numbers” (such as an examination of the educational level of Liberal and Labor party voters and a casual qualitative glance over the people who Howard tends to trot out as intellectual luminaries – Windshuttle, Brunton, et al) make this pretty clear don’t you think? Howard wants to dumb down our universities and high schools for a very good reason. People who really think about things aren’t likely to vote for him!
But the problem is primarily elsewhere. Howello haven’t just lost touch with “Academia”. They have lost touch with the issues that really matter to most Australians,in favour of a sterile, inadequate, neocon travesty of a world!.
Guys,
Will Newspoll be leaked on Gaenda at 930 tonight, or will it be Lateline?
Alternatively, will it be tomorrow night?
Still no poll since the ALP Launch! So we still don’t know if all the aspirational bogans are pissed off because Kevin has stopped the cargo?
Better take another pill LTEP
Agenda.
God, was that Freudian?
LTEP,
My understanding of Recent law students and graduates is that they couldn’t find their way out of Fletcher Jones store if it involves walking past a mirror.
Seriously though, isn’t there another one like that running in South Australia? Mia Handshen?
I mean one is happenstance, twice is circumstance, three times means there is a bunch of lechers on South Australia’s ALP state pre-selection comittee
Thanks all on Fitzroy Crossing. I was more curious as I don’t know a lot about the geography of WA. Speaking of weather though. Where I live in SW Sydney, was previously predicting around 30 and sunshine for polling day. Now they are saying 17 and rain. If anyone else out there has checked their weather for Saturday and has planned accordingly, you might want to check it again in case yours has changed as well. Looks like the umbrella while I wait in line
316 Rod. Notice the irony in your comments? A little further up the page you have one of yours who doesn’t know the difference between rhyming and alliteration, and a good number think that the opposite of “win” is spelt with two “o”s.
Roll on with your great intellectual credibility.
Speers really has the B-team on tonight but at least he’s leading off on the WorkChoice Mk 11 cover up story.
Glen Says:
November 19th, 2007 at 8:46 pm
All of the Rudd huggers expect so much from this election and since you will not achieve all that you desire you’ll likely be disappointed with the result.
The Victorian seats wont fall unless it’s a landslide and its not going to be a landslide. Rudd can only win this election from NSW and QLD he needs 10 from them and 3 from SA and 2 from Tassie, even so with 15 seats he loses Katter won’t back Labor, Windsor maybe.
But Glen, if the ALP win 75 seats they will form government. End of story. Doesn’t matter if Katter doesn’t support them as they have the numbers to defeat every piece of legislation should they hold 75 seats (given they won’t be producing the speaker).
Wpc at 320 – you had one of yours claiming Iraq was a ‘triumpf’, tonight. Stones. Houses. Glass.
IS it all over for JWH on SkyNews? Preview of Newspoll coming up…l
If the ALP gain 15 seats from last election then they have 75/150 votes in the HoR and a coalition government is unviable. An ALP opposition could pass a motion of no-confidence without independent support.
going to be 28 in Melb……..hmmmm might wear my mankini when handing out HTV cards for Rodney Cocks in La Trobe
For crying out loud, the sound of jaws hitting the floor when we have a hung parliament on Sat/Sun and Katter announces he will support Howards govt while hating the man.
Long way to go before we see a Labor victory. Discuss the issues objectively please!
As any favourite knows, You CANNOT broadcast it. Keeping a lid on it will shore up anyone thinking that the election is a foregone conclusion.
THings are moving as the ALP would want them to, partic public perception.
As for the Libs, the Kyoto revolt continues, last weeks disasterous campaign continues into this week.
You can watch Sky election news on this link, currently talking to dennis from the gg
http://www.news.com.au/live/popup/
red wombat: what is the story about the radio story today that Rodney Cocks has sent out a message referring to his “kids” when, it is claimed, he has none?
No 309
Those of leftist persuasion are hardly barometers of hubris, given their penchant for triumphant gloating in the face of favourable polls for Mr Rudd.
Is Sky about to leak the newspoll? It’ll be on Lateline.
STOP PRESS:
John Howard who would you turn gay for????
JWH: Peter Costello of course…I love him…no..no..no…I really really love him. I always loved him.
326 Chris. I make no great claim to intellectual superiority. I am quite aware of my stupidity. I am just trying to enlighten other people to theirs.
No 336
Really, John Hunt is a Dunce, you need to grow up.
@336
He’s got a funny way of showing it….
Oh I see it’s one of those sado masochistic things….nuff said.
Martin B, Trevor et al,
Yep 75 is the magic number. There will be at least 2 independents and Windsor has already come out and said he’d support the party with the most seats. The smart play would probably be to hand him the speakers chair, but he’s an honest enough broker to trust I’d say.
74 is still probably Rudd as PM. Windor has said he’d support the party with the highest TPP if the seats are equal – not likely to be Club Vermin. Katter then has to choose to support the ALP or cause a new election. He’s no fool and knows full well an independent that can parlay a balance of power is going to get a lot more power than an independent in a parliament with a clear majority.
STOP PRESS:
Peter Costello who would you turn gay for?
Costello: I always felt a deep bond with Andrew Peacock. He and I have so much in common…
Newspoll after the break on Sky…
Newspoll results about to be broadcast
http://www.news.com.au/live/popup/
YAY 56-44
You beauty!
Take that you Liberal trolls
Newspoll 54-46. Is it over now?
54-46
primary 46-41
Newspoll Labour TPP 54 Libs TPP 46
Weren’t you just a second ago wanting 52-48 to stop Tories voting to prevent a landslide, the only poll that counts is on Saturday.
We know from the state breakdown last weekend that its only the wild Victorian numbers that are holding the national TPP at 54-46.
53-47 or 52-48 as a national vote is on the cards after that state by state breakdown last weekend.
If the ALP primary is down to 46 already, there is another point or two that will disappear before Saturday
54-46 or 56-44?
I would think that it is highly unlikely that the government would be returned from here.
There have been times when it was felt that the underdogs were catching up such as Carter in 1980, Keating in 1996 but in the end the polls were essentially correct.
I think you will find as they said tonight on SkyNews that there will be patchy swings. Watch Ryan on Saturday night in Brisbane’s affluent area. (There is also an unpopular road being built there with fed money).
I think that Bowman will be close too. Andrew Laming is very unpopular with just about everyone and even FF were reluctant to give him there preferences. (I live in Bowman).
The Newspolling was done before:
*The latest WorkChoices Mk 11 cover-up
*Rudd on Rove
*The latest climate change report
*Revelations over the $1 million a day Coalition spending on advertising
*Howard and Costello trying to act cute on Today Tonight
Flash,
I think it was also done after Kevin Rien launched his campaing and claimed to be an economic conservative
Yes Mr Squiggle that is my understanding of the timing.
The point is too that the way the polls have been going the are just as likely to go back the other way with Labor picking up.
Flash is right to point out that there things that have happened since.
Could it be that Howard does a 1993 Keating? Maybe but I think the polls were much tighter then.
Newspoll has been rock soid all year around the current 54/46 – 55/45. All within the MOE. It’s going nowhere no matter how good the Ruddster gets or how bad the Rodent performs. The people have decided long ago. Hand in the keys to Kirribilli and make sure you shampoo the carpets before you go. On second thoughts – just piss off; we’ll have the shampoo done and send you the bill.
Hey guys go easy on the guy! That is Howard!
Remember what Henry Lawson said of the Boss of the Board:
He’d a row with Big Duggan—a rough sort of Jim—
Or, rather, Jim Duggan was ‘laying for’ him!
His hate of Injustice and Greed was so deep
That his shearing grew rough—and he ill-used the sheep.
And I fancied that Duggan his manliness lower’d
When he took off his shirt to the Boss-of-the-board,
For the Boss was ten stone,
And the shearer full-grown,
And he might have, they said, let the crawler alone.
So just leave the crawler alone!!!
Did anyone catch what Kerry said on the 7:30 report? Something along the lines of, “People have been saying it’s not like 1996 when the baseball bats were out, but…”
I’m getting together my music for next Saturday night:
Bye, bye baby, goodbye (Col Joye)
The king has lost his crown (ABBA)
See you later, alligator (Bill Haley version)
Wipeout! (The Surfaris)
Goodbye-ee (WWI ?)
Chorus:
Goodbye-ee, goodbye-ee,
Wipe the tear, baby dear, from your eye-ee,
Tho’ it’s hard to part I know,
I’ll be tickled to death to go.
Don’t cry-ee, dont sigh-ee,
there’s a silver lining in the sky-ee,
Bonsoir, old thing, cheer-i-o, chin, chin,
Nah-poo, toodle-oo, Goodbye-eee
……
again i can’t catch up – i’m back in the #190’s – (gee – they were great days) – a possible clown from a southern clime (perhaps melb) said “AWB = Cost of doing business in Iraq …”
i sus there may be ppl who agree – i’m sorry – i don’t – no i’m NOT sorry – this is deplorable – the sooner this parasite is flushd royally, the better
viggop – if u were a 1971 PIT in green square type NSR
NSR. It is so
While everyone is watching the marginals there are one or two seats in country areas that might see some surprise results.
In my electorate of Indi (Vic, Lib, 16.3% margin) sitting member Sophie Mirabella is ‘on the nose’ after a string of controversies including a secret donation she received from British American Tobacco while negotiating the buyout of the growers and demise of the industry, and about the hold up of a 500 job hi-tech meatworks proposed for Wangaratta (Sophie & husband purchased a home near the proposed abattoir site AFTER it was announced and then lodged an objection with the EPA about possible odours. The matter is heading to VCAT).
Opinion polls put the swing to the ALP in Indi at up to 11%. It’s still hard for the Liberals to lose it but Sophie is giving it her best shot.
Country people are pretty pissed off with Howard too.
I Just watched the interview between Barry Cassidy and Julia Gillard.
Barry spent more time pushing his own insignificance and complaining about the fact that his show is falling behind the ratings of his competitors.
Gillard was sharp and on the ball and her comment about Cassidy acting more like a jilted lover was spot on.
She answered all questions with confidence and surety. Overall I though she was very impressive.
I am a little bias of course as I have known Julia for many years and whilst we are in different factions her common sense approach to issues has been overall generally good. She played a solid supportive role in the rebuilding of Labor during the disastrous years of Kennett and was a good solid branch executive member of meany years.
One of the other most impressive operators during the “Kennennt period” was Feeney. (The Robert Ray of the next Generation. I really hope he gest elected).
I have been tossing up whether to vote above the line or below the line. ,i>(Your vote increases marginally if you vote above the line)
I have decided (and it was a close call as I really like Jacinta Collins – Labor has a host of talent in this election) I will vote one below the line for Feeney. and then the rest of Labor.
Last election I supported the Greens (David Risstrom) after Labor but not this time around. (Reasons being pretty much in line with what Andrew Landeryou has to say has published on his site).
Hopefully Feeney will get up.
Labor needs 41.6% which is more then the threshold back in 2004 (39%) The Greens chances will be decided by Labor falling below the 41.6% threshold or the Liberal party falling below 36% (The Libs are in a much better position for preferences then Labor).
If the polling holds up the Greens will become the wasted quota in Victoria and may only secure one seat n Australia.
GO FEENEY… Australia needs you mate. I agree with Landeryou “the elction is much closer then the public think”.
In case you missed the Jillard “Jilted: Interview… You can view it here
(The ABC should adopt the YouTube technology of caching videos).
William “Again another great summary of political events and the state of the polls.”
I love it… I have not much time to go through the comments as there is a lot to catch up on but thanks again. You deserve a Walkley for your coverage. (Is there an award for best Internet “political coverage”?)
I hope you will not decide to move over to Crikey, you would do better working for the major league.
Five days to go and I am when most will be ready to shift the focus on the silly season, you will be there providing the real insights and whats what behind the scenes.
What ever happened to the idea of fixed four-years-Terms.. All in favor of it along with Australia becoming a Republic (Without a directly elected head of state) and a new Australian Flag.
The issues in this campaign is “John it is time to retire… You have out stayed your political career and Costello is not the man to take the helm” John should have done much more in a hand over then a hang on…
Five days will be spent with the Libs pushing more and more on the issue of Labor in control in all the states… This was expected and obvious at the beginning of the Campaign. Most votes are locked in by this time. More so then last election, with most punters favouring the major parties. This spells woe for the Greens. If Labor can secure 41.6% primary in Victoria then the Greens are related to the side lines for another term.
If you need to characterize this election it the “YouTube” Election. Video on demand. We have had the “direct mail-out”, the adoption of negative US style “fear campaigning”. Now it is the “Information Internet video on demand”.
The OnLine revolution. And the Pollblugger is now at the helm.
Here’s a challenge for you Bill..
Find a “Sunday Times” editorial that has ever advocated a vote for the Australian Labor Party in any election.