• Dennis Shanahan and Matthew Franklin in The Australian:
ALP polling in Victoria last week suggested Labor would be lucky to win a seat in the state, meaning that the bulk of the 16 seats the party needs for victory will have to come from NSW and Queensland … Senior Labor officials last night maintained there was a continuing swing to the ALP, as evidenced by the published polls, but said it remained a tight contest in marginal seats across the country. “There is no question we will win seats in NSW and Queensland, the question is how many,” a senior Labor source said … Victorian Liberals and Labor sources suggest extrapolations of up to six seats being won in Victoria are unlikely. Last week, Labor polled the five most marginal seats of La Trobe, Deakin, Corangamite, McEwen and McMillan with a sample of 350 voters in each seat. Labor sources stressed the ALP was not in front in any of the Victorian marginals held by the Coalition. Liberal sources said Labor was finding it difficult to get above the “high water mark” of Labor support in Victoria but they believed three or four seats were still very close … Playing down expectations in NSW, some Labor officials are suggesting a net gain of four or five seats would be a good result. The published polling in Queensland also suggests the high expectations based on Labor’s overwhelming two-party-preferred lead of 10 points for most of the past year have been tempered with the latest estimates of only three or four seats … In the Northern Territory, the Country Liberal Party’s Dave Tollner is expected to benefit from the Coalition’s intervention in the Northern Territory and hold his seat, despite it being one of the most marginal in the country.
• Gerard McManus in the Herald-Sun:
Depending on the tightness of the result next Saturday this could still mean that WA, which is three hours behind the east, may determine the final outcome very late on Saturday night. But Labor insiders remain quietly confident the result will be known well before that, with New South Wales, South Australia and Queensland likely to deliver sufficient seats for it to take government. Optimists inside Labor believe the party can take up to three to five seats in South Australia, up to eight in Queensland, and six to eight in New South Wales. And some super-optimists say Labor could take 11 or 12 seats in NSW, including the mortgage-strapped seats of Greenway (11 per cent) and Macarthur (11.1 per cent) … But based on the earlier, more conservative prediction Labor would achieve a comfortable majority of about six seats based on winning its required 16 seats in Queensland, SA and NSW, and also picking up the two Tasmanian seats, one or two in either Victoria or WA, and the Northern Territory seat of Solomon, which both sides expect to go to Labor. Interestingly, Labor is not banking on winning any seats in Victoria because it already holds a majority of the seats in the state, but will not be surprised to see up to three fall “if the swing is on” … An analysis of the critical 30 marginal seats suggests that Labor can still be certain of a definite gain of only a dozen seats and that even the best pundits have no idea of the result in some seats. For example, predicting the outcome in the Prime Minister’s seat of Bennelong, often quoted as a possible or even likely Labor gain after a redistribution cut the PM’s margin to just 4 per cent, has been hampered by the reluctance of Chinese and Korean voters to talk to pollsters. “We have no idea who they will vote for because they simply refuse to co-operate – they are suspicious of polls and questionnaires,” one NSW Labor worker told the Herald Sun this week. Many expect Mr Rudd’s fluency in Mandarin to have impressed Chinese nationals and ABCs (Australian-born Chinese), but others say Chinese typically respect elderly and incumbent leaders. Similarly, Malcolm Turnbull’s affluent Sydney seat of Wentworth has been buffeted by several controversies, including the legitimacy of Labor candidate George Newhouse. Labor insiders say they will be surprised if Mr Turnbull is not returned.
• Jennifer Hewett in The Australian:
The strong anti-union message from the Government was resonating into the idea of whether it was worth taking the risk on economic management. Even interest rate hikes were making people just a little nervous about the prospect of making a change. NSW seats such as Eden-Monaro and Page, which Labor must win next Saturday, suddenly looked much tighter. The surge to Labor in South Australia abated. Braddon in Tasmania was no longer looking so much like a near certainty for the ALP. Queensland could only really guarantee four seats rather than six. Victoria was not looking likely to produce any wins at all … in Queensland the estimate from both sides is a probable loss of four government seats (Bonner, Moreton, Blair, Herbert) to six seats (Leichhardt, Forde or just maybe the new seat of Flynn despite the anger there over council amalgamations). In NSW, the estimate is about five seats to Labor but with great nervousness about Eden-Monaro and a little nervousness about Page. Labor is not including Wentworth or Bennelong on its likely list. In Victoria, Labor is not confident of winning any seats, where effective government MPs will be trying to hold out against the tide. In South Australia, both Liberals and Labor expect a loss of three Coalition seats but no more. In Tasmania, Bass looks as if it is gone from the Liberals, but there are different views about whether the Liberals will hold Braddon. In the Northern Territory, the Liberal Country Party’s David Tollner will be trying to hold out against Labor in a typically tough-knuckled fight. And then, of course, there’s WA, where the likeliest outcome, as of this weekend, is a possible loss of Cowan – where the popular Labor MP is also retiring – balanced by a Labor pick-up in Hasluck. But absolutely no guarantees of anything.
• Andrew Burrell wrote in Friday’s Financial Review that Liberal polling showed them narrowly ahead in Stirling, whereas Labor’s had the two parties “virtually deadlocked”. Labor sources are said to be “extremely confident” of winning back Hasluck.
• Google has now added polling booth locations to its magnificent Google Maps election feature.
• Complete results from the weekend’s EMRS poll of the five Tasmanian seats available here.
• Simon Jackman has laid his predictive cards on the table.
• Andrew Fraser of The Australian gives an overview of the Sunday papers’ record on editorial endorsements, but the good bit is not included in the online article. Here it is:
Sunday Telegraph (News Limited, Sydney): 1998 Howard, 2001 Beazley, 2004 Howard, 2007 Rudd. “The Sunday Telegraph accepts readers believe it is finally time to give Labor a go. But Mr Rudd needs to guarantee our nation several things. He must stare down a Labor cabinet inhabited by many with union and factional allegiances … Mr Rudd must surround himself with a loyal team that will help him deliver on his promises“.
Sunday Herald Sun (News Limited, Melbourne): 1998 Howard, 2001 Howard, 2004 Howard, 2007 Howard. “It is time. Not to change governments, but to resist temptation. It is time to acknowledge that the Coalition is the safe bet in a political contest in which the new, despite its superficial allure, offers less than the familiar”.
The Sunday Age (Fairfax, Melbourne): 1998 N/A; 2001 None; 2004 None; 2007 No call. “On the contenders’ ‘exposed form’, The Sunday Age does not see enough differences between the Coalition and Labor to urge readers to vote for one over the other”.
The Sun-Herald (Fairfax, Sydney): 1998 N/A; 2001 Howard; 2004 Howard; 2007 Rudd. “The Sun-Herald says voters face a tough choice but our endorsement is for the Labor Party. Team Rudd gets our final tick on the strength of its fresh vision for education”.
Sunday Mail (News Limited, Adelaide): 1998 Howard; 2001 Howard; 2004 Howard; 2007 Howard. “Now is not the time to move into untested waters, particularly as the world economy comes under strain next year. The Sunday Mail believes the Coalition is best placed to govern Australia for the next three years”.
Sunday Times (News Limited, Perth): 1998 Howard; 2001 Howard; 2004 Howard; 2007 Howard. “The Sunday Times believes change for change sake is simply not an adequate trigger to throw out a Coalition Government which, while far from perfect, has overseen record prosperity in WA and the nation”.
Sunday Mail (News Limited, Brisbane): 1998 N/A; 2001 None; 2004 Howard; 2007 Rudd. “There is undoubtedly a mood for national renewal and there is a need for national renewal. Mr Rudd has demonstrated he has the potential to undertake that task effectively”.
367 Comments
Pages: « 1 … 3 4 [5] 6 7 … 8 » Show All
Looks like Newspoll won’t be released until “The Gallery” program on Sky News at 9:30pm. The last time it was released there, they didn’t get to the actual poll until 9:50pm.
Just what is a “Jennifer Hewitt”?
Does it live on this planet, or is it some microbial life form that lives bereft of sentience on some globule in a distant galaxy?
Let’s quote this mono-braincelled life form:
“Even interest rate hikes were making people just a little nervous about the prospect of making a change. NSW seats such as Eden-Monaro and Page, which Labor must win next Saturday, suddenly looked much tighter.”
Let’s see the current Sportingbet odds:
EDEN MONARO
ALP 1.15
LIB 4.50
PAGE
ALP 1.60
LIB 2.20
And finally, to put this poor creature out of its misery, which seats figure on the top ten best gainers for Labor across 3 betting agencies in the last ten days (courtesy of Simon Jackman). Yep, numer one and number seven respectively…you guessed it:
PAGE
EDEN MONARO
Someone squash the bug please, it’s not welcome on this planet.
I question if Joe really is in danger for he is on the Channel 7 panel, be interesting to see if he shows up, from what I know of North Sydney it has no natural ALP booths and there are not too many marginal TPP booths.
Please let it be true!!!
It will be a well replayed moment if Hockey realsies he lost his seat on national tv
Charlie at 19 : “I’m just not buying those Labor leaks to Shanahan and Hewitt…”
Me neither. No self-respecting Labor apparatcik would give a hack like Shanahan the time of day.
Grog at 52: “And wow I love how the Libs have changed their backdrop to “Don’t risk Labor with the Economy”..
Noticed that too. Is it any wonder the Coalition’s gonna get trashed, come Saturday?
They can’t even stay on message for the duration of the formal campaign. WTF happened to “Go for Growth”? Maybe it was ditched becasue the punters were starting to associate it with growth in interest rates.
The Coalition performance has been a text-book example of how not to run a political campaign. They’re panicking and the “message”, such as it is, is all over the place. How can they possibly expect people to pay attention?
I think ebb and flow is washing around Costellos feet as well,just quietly.Only 8.8% and when the swing is on all defend!
re post 129 i would not rule out Calare as an independent win
I must say, I’ve been surprised how many more Mike signs I’ve been seeing as opposed to Joe signs in front yards near me.
Today Tonight does not rate in the top 25 programs for the 18-25s. It rates between 20th and 25th in the 25-54s. It rates most highly in the 55+ demographic.
However, I would be pretty sure it has a younger audience that A Current Affair or the 7.30 Report, and there certainly would be a good selection of younger viewers watching, including mortgage belt parents.
If Howard and Costello decided to appear together on one show, Today Tonight would probably be the best (if they didn’t fancy Rove).
Well yes, I believe North Sydney is one of two original Federation seats that has never been won by the ALP (the other being Wentworth). Adam’s map (linked below) gives a good indication of the layout of the seat. The areas closer to the train line seems to be less blue ribbon Liberal than the rest of the seat. Being a native North Shorian, I am extremely sceptical that the ALP could claim the seat, but would love to be proved wrong.
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/2007maps/northsydneybig.shtml
After seeing how buddy-buddy JHo and Costello were on TT and all their talk about their relationship being like a marriage, I suspect that if they went on Rove, they’d have to say they’d turn gay for each other
Although its nor good to be cocky, there is the chance that the ALP may gain more affluent votes than we ever believe given the same thing happened in the UK in 1997. Despite this, we need to take into account differences in the two countries. Nevertheless, it is possible that the ALP may gain affluent seats like the coalition gains battler seats due to the doctors wives phenomenon and this may be the basis of a new political climate
@50 Greeensborough Growler Says:
“Howard declaring its Work Choices or bust reminds me of one of the Muslim Jihadi terrorists who thinks there are 42 virgins in heaven awaiting his arrival.”
I read in Irshad Mahnji’s book “The Trouble With Islam” that the 72 virgins as reward for martyrdom thing may be a linguistic error. Its actually 72 raisins.
Hmm, Rattus, deposed, gets 72 dried up grapes on the night??
A lot better image to have in the head that him with 72 virgins. Or wait, him with 72 virgins at beck and call, and Hyacinth in the background, scowling??
Today I received my third latter of the campaign from my Blue ribbon Liberal MP, opening line, earlier in the campaign I promised to send you another letter, then launched into a four page letter.
I disagree, JWH does not understand that at all.
The economy is important but Kev understands it’s basic purpose and relationship to society. Howard and Costello on the other hand do not, they are mere fools worshipping the tool itself in spite of society.
Maybe Labor could ‘me too’ the lib slogan and run with ‘go for growth with new leadership’. The Libs don’t seem to need their slogan anymore.
Also, just for you mad cow, odds narrowing for Patterson 1.60-2.20. I predict that this will be the next to go to Labor on the betting front.
You can still get $6.50 on Mike Bailey at IASbet.com if you think he’s got a reasonable shot.
John of Melbourne 80:
So as an engineer, you’d be happy for us all to still be driving Model-T Fords? With Rudd we’re not “fixing it” but moving to a superior model!
Dave, this is insane.. I have several bookie’s up and I’m having to refresh every ten minutes
“The Coalition performance has been a text-book example of how not to run a political campaign.”
Brian Loughnane is transferring his sterling Victorian election performance into the Federal arena.
I can’t believe the shortage of positive Coalition ads, given that they’re boasting about the good economy. I have yet to see an ad saying that tax cuts are coming, that unemployment is really low etc.
OK, we have to xpect the fear campaign, Labor can’t manage the economy, Labor is a tool of the unions, etc. But is that all there is, ad nauseum?
Why do we see ads about how high interest rates were under Whitlam? The only people still alive who would have paid interest rates under Whitlam would have paid off their houses long ago, been able to send their kids to uni for free, and are thinking about retirement homes and spending their super.
I just asked my 17-year-old daughter what she knew about Whitlam. She said she’d heard of him, but didn’t know who he was. She said all the Coalition ads featured people she hadn’t heard of.
Hello, fellow Bludgers. Have been mostly absent due to work commitments, till today. There’s a wonderful piece on 7.30 Report about Turnball funding a company to the tune of $10 mill. to make clouds, with absolutely damning evidence from eminent scientists saying it’s a load of total rubbish. These guys are so good.
Newspoll prediction. It was a 54-46 2PP lead for Labor last week so this time (post-Liberal and Labor launches) what about 56-44 2PP for tomorrow’s Newspoll easing back to 55-45 for the last Newspoll before the election.
Tonight’s 7.30 Report is going after Turnbull – seems he may have been snookered by some phony Russian physicists claiming to be able to use the ionosphere to produce rainfall. Not a good look for Malcolm – given the $10 Million he’s blown (err, authorized) be spent on this…
The Howard government is masterfull at covering its tracks.
Monday November 19, 07:29 PM
Govt ’shelved plan’ to boost IR laws
The Howard government secretly planned to take its unpopular Work Choices laws further two years ago but shelved the idea, documents confirmed on Monday.
But voters will not be allowed to know what the government was planning, with a two-and-a-half year Freedom of Information (FOI) battle failed on Monday.
The Administrative Appeals Tribunal (AAT) ruled that releasing the details was not in the public interest, saying the government was accountable for what it had done but not for what it might be planning to do.
#225
link for full article:
http://au.news.yahoo.com/071114/2/14xb0.html
Kiwi @233, isn’t there going to be another, final, newspoll at the end of the week?
#222 The story about Turnbull on the 7.30 Report is a goodie, eh Harry. I used to work (briefly) for Matt Handbury, and while he was an extraordinarily indulgent and good employer, he always was a bit of nut-job. I’m not surprised that he’s involved himself in this sort of hoo-haa, but am surprised that Turnbull has fallen for it. Perhaps I should revise my opinion of Malcolm’s intellectual powers.
mad cow, I can’t explain it, all I can think of is people jumping on a good price and hoping for the best. I’m in Newcastle and work in Maitland but I haven’t seen much from Arneman at all it all Big Bob.
Dave I saw a Jim Arneman ad earlier tonight. He looked pretty good on it.
I reckon Newspoll at 57/43 for the ALP. ALP had a good week, and it would put the fear of Kevin the Barbarian into the Libs in this last week.
That said, anything 54 or over for the ALP and i’m happy.
OK ……. news from the 7:30 report and not a poll ….. it is better …..
paraphrasing from memory ….. Turnbull has used 10 million of taxpayer dollars to funnel it into a company that claims to be able to make rain. Research for helping the drought he says. Money approved before election was called. This company is dodgy at best with their plans and what they want to do to try to seed clouds – debunked by a world respected climate scientist from Israel. THEN THIS SAME COMPANY TURNS AROUND AND DONATES MONEY TO TURNBULLS ELECTION CAMPAIGN!!!
I smell something rotten in Wentworth …….
Oh Arthur Sinodinos – yr political skills remained with you to the end…including that timely parachute straight into a lucrative bank sector gig (not something that’s questioned here as in some countries like the US).
On the Newspoll. If you believe polls reflect campaign moments then it should be stable or slightly better for the ALP.
If you don’t believe they have any effect it could be anything under the sun, 52-56%.
Mad cow,
I’m predicting two Newpolls being released this week with 55-45 for the final one at the end of the week (released on Friday). But the again I could be wrong about there being two Newspolls released this week!
“I smell something rotten in Wentworth …….”
Now there’s an understatement!
Wow, just tuned in and noticed the first three posts on this thread all within one minute of each other. Then I noticed the authors.
Just a tad incestuous.
Comrades, am I right in stating that Labor only needs 14 seats to win? My logic is that if it is 74-74, Windsor has stated he will support the party with the highest TPP ie Labor, so that’s 75. Bob Katter will either then have to force a second election (and risk being assassinated) or support Rudd (evidently he hates the Rodent and Serfchoices).
Diogenes, that’s how I see it too. Many people are saying Katter would not back Labor… but he’d have little choice. Back Labor or force Australia to another election. He’s already thrown out a lifeline in setting a mandatory ethanol target and will be able to appease his electorate with that.
I posted the following, more or less, on Larvatus earlier today in response to piece there, but I think it applies equally well here.
Three things:
1) Over time, parties in government suffer “cumulative damage”. There are things over time that some people simply feel they can’t forgive, and they add up. In Howard’s case there have been a few at just about every election – getting lied to about “Children Overboard” and Iraq and the like , the ramping up of racial and cultural tension, the sycophancy with the US, the wheat board scandal, and, in this election, the absence of any meaningful response to climate change and the perception of broken promises about interest rates. Most people might not change their individual voting decision over any one of them, but some will, and they become part of “the vibe” around the local watercooler and on talkback radio. Ultimately the tarnish builds up to a point where, unless a party is genuinely able to “reinvent” itself, through a leadership change or some such, it starts to smell and that 20% of people who aren’t wedded to one side or the other start looking elsewhere. If the other mob aren’t obviously on the nose, then they change their vote.
2) Parties get arrogant and tired. They start assuming they are the “natural party of government”, start taking short cuts, get caught out.
3) The Libs/ Conservatives never do well when there are real clouds on the horizon in Australia. WW1, the Depression, WW2, the major changes across the world during the late 60’s and early 70’s all lead to the election of Labor governments when the threat became obvious. Hawke/ Keating were elected when the world economic pressures that had confronted the world from the early 70’s ultimately looked to be beyond the abilities of the Fraser/ Howard government. Howard/Costello were put back in when things were back under control.
Today environmental (and geopolitical) issues loom over all of us. Labor is generally seen at the ballot box (quite accurately) as possessing better intellectual credibility and greater toughness when such things arise. Costello, for example, would never have had the guts to give us “the recession we had to have” in the face of opposition from Howard. Keating did, in the face of Hawke, though I personally hated him for it at the time. Ultimately Keating’s correct decisions gave Howard/Costello a free ride for an extended period.
The ride is over. The world faces different problems today. Howard and Costello are still playing as if the essential “issue” is the resentment that people felt about the the hard decisions that Keating made. Neither of them show the slightest sign of being able to rise to the current set of challenges. In truth it is very hard to see anything much that they have actually done in the area that they claim as their own – “Australia’s economy” – that doesn’t either rest on the earlier, much harder, Labor reforms or on international factors such as the resources boom. Simply put, they have been coasting for 11 years.
They have no idea about how to reposition Australia in a world in which the US is losing its status as the world’s dominant economic power. They have no idea how to deal with the massive environmental issues.
They have no idea about how to “place” Australia in terms of the big geopolitical issues beyond simple endorsement of the “Bush doctrine”.
They also have no idea about how little “middle and less than middle Australia” are paying for the growing wealth of Australia’s “top dogs”, and how much most Australians resent huge pay rises for execs and the like while the rest of us are facing a situation where wages don’t keep up with the real cost of living and the level of decent public service in areas like health and education goes down the proverbial dunny.
It is all very well running a “fear campaign” (and they have done precious little else other than offering a few bribes this time round), but one gets the feeling that Howard and Costello have absolutely no idea about what Australians are actually frightened of these days, and don’t have the nouse or humility necessary to find out!
Cheers
Rod
No 240
I totally resent your comments with respect to saying that the ALP has higher intellectual credibility.
What a load of partisan rubbish.
Actually I’m not a fan of members of safe Liberal seats (8%+ margins) getting a scare, though it’s enjoyable to see them sweat for the moment. Every safe Lib seat that becomes a marginal but doesn’t fall means that the statewide swing to the ALP is being diluted in the close seats that really count.
Maybe that’s why Rudd has been campaigning in an increasing number of safeish (5-10%) Liberal held seats, because he can see the potential for this. Not everything a politician says is doublespeak that has to be parsed – Rudd might genuinely believe that gaining the necessary seats to win will be difficult, he’s taking no chances, and it’s not because he wants to mess with the minds of certain Liberal politicians.
Though, as the last NewsPoll assured, there seems to be plenty of swing to go around …
one ad
two versions
labor version
nicole and kate singing in the rain,jumping up and down “kevin 07 its heaven”
liberal version
dana and bronwyn “singing me too”
the choice aint hard for the soft voter
WorkChoices changes:
Updated: 20:50, Monday November 19, 2007
Just five days out from the election, the Howard government has taken legal action to stop secret changes it considered making to WorkChoices from being revealed.
http://www2.skynews.com.au/news/article.aspx?id=201645
LOL, I have noticed that coincidence quite often actually
Can’t see Newspoll being anything other than pretty close to the final result of between 53 to 54 ALP. It it’s any more than that then voting is just a waste of time and money, AEC should just declare a Rudd Govt and cancel the election.
The final Newspoll is always published on Sat, the day of the election, and taken Wed/Thur nights.
Diogenes and LTEP, being at the mercy of Bob Katter the Mad Hatter for 3 yrs would be awful for the good governance of this country. I’d hate the Coalition being returned, but Bob Katter holding the balance of power would wreck this country. 75 seats is required for Labor, with Windsor’s support; he seems reasonable to me.
A good summary, Rod (240). This sorry excuse for a government has been missing in action on the significant issues facing this country, and the have been downright incompetent in many others.
Hey all, I’ve been working on a Monte Carlo statistical simulation for the election using the swing as a distribution. I’ve sent off an email to William to get a little more info about the distribution and that.
Just so you know, even with 10m simulations the Coalition didn’t win one result if the ALP had a swing of 6.7% (TPP of 54%). I was motivated due to a discussion today due to someone making the wild remark that Labor could lose even at a TPP of 54%.
Hopefully William will give me some tips and I will do up a lovely UI for it, and I will provide it as an open source simulator for anyone who wants it.
New thread up.
Imacca @ 214,
I reckon you might be one very pissed terrorist if you get to heaven and cop 72 raisins and not 72 virgins.
Like one of those ads that encourage you to write away for the ten gratest hits for $10. You send your money off and sure enough you get a letter with your name and nine others who sent $10.
Pages: « 1 … 3 4 [5] 6 7 … 8 » Show All