• Dennis Shanahan and Matthew Franklin in The Australian:
ALP polling in Victoria last week suggested Labor would be lucky to win a seat in the state, meaning that the bulk of the 16 seats the party needs for victory will have to come from NSW and Queensland … Senior Labor officials last night maintained there was a continuing swing to the ALP, as evidenced by the published polls, but said it remained a tight contest in marginal seats across the country. “There is no question we will win seats in NSW and Queensland, the question is how many,” a senior Labor source said … Victorian Liberals and Labor sources suggest extrapolations of up to six seats being won in Victoria are unlikely. Last week, Labor polled the five most marginal seats of La Trobe, Deakin, Corangamite, McEwen and McMillan with a sample of 350 voters in each seat. Labor sources stressed the ALP was not in front in any of the Victorian marginals held by the Coalition. Liberal sources said Labor was finding it difficult to get above the “high water mark” of Labor support in Victoria but they believed three or four seats were still very close … Playing down expectations in NSW, some Labor officials are suggesting a net gain of four or five seats would be a good result. The published polling in Queensland also suggests the high expectations based on Labor’s overwhelming two-party-preferred lead of 10 points for most of the past year have been tempered with the latest estimates of only three or four seats … In the Northern Territory, the Country Liberal Party’s Dave Tollner is expected to benefit from the Coalition’s intervention in the Northern Territory and hold his seat, despite it being one of the most marginal in the country.
• Gerard McManus in the Herald-Sun:
Depending on the tightness of the result next Saturday this could still mean that WA, which is three hours behind the east, may determine the final outcome very late on Saturday night. But Labor insiders remain quietly confident the result will be known well before that, with New South Wales, South Australia and Queensland likely to deliver sufficient seats for it to take government. Optimists inside Labor believe the party can take up to three to five seats in South Australia, up to eight in Queensland, and six to eight in New South Wales. And some super-optimists say Labor could take 11 or 12 seats in NSW, including the mortgage-strapped seats of Greenway (11 per cent) and Macarthur (11.1 per cent) … But based on the earlier, more conservative prediction Labor would achieve a comfortable majority of about six seats based on winning its required 16 seats in Queensland, SA and NSW, and also picking up the two Tasmanian seats, one or two in either Victoria or WA, and the Northern Territory seat of Solomon, which both sides expect to go to Labor. Interestingly, Labor is not banking on winning any seats in Victoria because it already holds a majority of the seats in the state, but will not be surprised to see up to three fall “if the swing is on” … An analysis of the critical 30 marginal seats suggests that Labor can still be certain of a definite gain of only a dozen seats and that even the best pundits have no idea of the result in some seats. For example, predicting the outcome in the Prime Minister’s seat of Bennelong, often quoted as a possible or even likely Labor gain after a redistribution cut the PM’s margin to just 4 per cent, has been hampered by the reluctance of Chinese and Korean voters to talk to pollsters. “We have no idea who they will vote for because they simply refuse to co-operate – they are suspicious of polls and questionnaires,” one NSW Labor worker told the Herald Sun this week. Many expect Mr Rudd’s fluency in Mandarin to have impressed Chinese nationals and ABCs (Australian-born Chinese), but others say Chinese typically respect elderly and incumbent leaders. Similarly, Malcolm Turnbull’s affluent Sydney seat of Wentworth has been buffeted by several controversies, including the legitimacy of Labor candidate George Newhouse. Labor insiders say they will be surprised if Mr Turnbull is not returned.
• Jennifer Hewett in The Australian:
The strong anti-union message from the Government was resonating into the idea of whether it was worth taking the risk on economic management. Even interest rate hikes were making people just a little nervous about the prospect of making a change. NSW seats such as Eden-Monaro and Page, which Labor must win next Saturday, suddenly looked much tighter. The surge to Labor in South Australia abated. Braddon in Tasmania was no longer looking so much like a near certainty for the ALP. Queensland could only really guarantee four seats rather than six. Victoria was not looking likely to produce any wins at all … in Queensland the estimate from both sides is a probable loss of four government seats (Bonner, Moreton, Blair, Herbert) to six seats (Leichhardt, Forde or just maybe the new seat of Flynn despite the anger there over council amalgamations). In NSW, the estimate is about five seats to Labor but with great nervousness about Eden-Monaro and a little nervousness about Page. Labor is not including Wentworth or Bennelong on its likely list. In Victoria, Labor is not confident of winning any seats, where effective government MPs will be trying to hold out against the tide. In South Australia, both Liberals and Labor expect a loss of three Coalition seats but no more. In Tasmania, Bass looks as if it is gone from the Liberals, but there are different views about whether the Liberals will hold Braddon. In the Northern Territory, the Liberal Country Party’s David Tollner will be trying to hold out against Labor in a typically tough-knuckled fight. And then, of course, there’s WA, where the likeliest outcome, as of this weekend, is a possible loss of Cowan – where the popular Labor MP is also retiring – balanced by a Labor pick-up in Hasluck. But absolutely no guarantees of anything.
• Andrew Burrell wrote in Friday’s Financial Review that Liberal polling showed them narrowly ahead in Stirling, whereas Labor’s had the two parties “virtually deadlocked”. Labor sources are said to be “extremely confident” of winning back Hasluck.
• Google has now added polling booth locations to its magnificent Google Maps election feature.
• Complete results from the weekend’s EMRS poll of the five Tasmanian seats available here.
• Simon Jackman has laid his predictive cards on the table.
• Andrew Fraser of The Australian gives an overview of the Sunday papers’ record on editorial endorsements, but the good bit is not included in the online article. Here it is:
Sunday Telegraph (News Limited, Sydney): 1998 Howard, 2001 Beazley, 2004 Howard, 2007 Rudd. “The Sunday Telegraph accepts readers believe it is finally time to give Labor a go. But Mr Rudd needs to guarantee our nation several things. He must stare down a Labor cabinet inhabited by many with union and factional allegiances … Mr Rudd must surround himself with a loyal team that will help him deliver on his promises“.
Sunday Herald Sun (News Limited, Melbourne): 1998 Howard, 2001 Howard, 2004 Howard, 2007 Howard. “It is time. Not to change governments, but to resist temptation. It is time to acknowledge that the Coalition is the safe bet in a political contest in which the new, despite its superficial allure, offers less than the familiar”.
The Sunday Age (Fairfax, Melbourne): 1998 N/A; 2001 None; 2004 None; 2007 No call. “On the contenders’ ‘exposed form’, The Sunday Age does not see enough differences between the Coalition and Labor to urge readers to vote for one over the other”.
The Sun-Herald (Fairfax, Sydney): 1998 N/A; 2001 Howard; 2004 Howard; 2007 Rudd. “The Sun-Herald says voters face a tough choice but our endorsement is for the Labor Party. Team Rudd gets our final tick on the strength of its fresh vision for education”.
Sunday Mail (News Limited, Adelaide): 1998 Howard; 2001 Howard; 2004 Howard; 2007 Howard. “Now is not the time to move into untested waters, particularly as the world economy comes under strain next year. The Sunday Mail believes the Coalition is best placed to govern Australia for the next three years”.
Sunday Times (News Limited, Perth): 1998 Howard; 2001 Howard; 2004 Howard; 2007 Howard. “The Sunday Times believes change for change sake is simply not an adequate trigger to throw out a Coalition Government which, while far from perfect, has overseen record prosperity in WA and the nation”.
Sunday Mail (News Limited, Brisbane): 1998 N/A; 2001 None; 2004 Howard; 2007 Rudd. “There is undoubtedly a mood for national renewal and there is a need for national renewal. Mr Rudd has demonstrated he has the potential to undertake that task effectively”.
367 Comments
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You know, I wouldn’t be all that surprised if there were only nine or ten regular posters on this site.
211
KT Says:Well yes, I believe North Sydney is one of two original Federation seats that has never been won by the ALP (the other being Wentworth). Adam’s map (linked below) gives a good indication of the layout of the seat. The areas closer to the train line seems to be less blue ribbon Liberal than the rest of the seat. Being a native North Shorian, I am extremely sceptical that the ALP could claim the seat, but would love to be proved wrong.
Yr read of the Nth Sydney electorate isn’t too far off. The railway/highway corridor down the centre of the seat has gone through enormous demographic changes in recent years and is now very marginal territory, period. I am expecting this area to swing heavily to Labor.
Joe has good reason to be worried. Whilst my instinct tells me that he will probably survive, his margin may be down as low as 2-3%. He is most likely to be saved by the strong Lib booths on the eastern fringes of the seat such as Cremorne & Castlecrag and moreso areas like Woolwich and Hunters Hill where there is a large Armenian community.
Mike Bailey was an excellent choice as a candidate for this seat. He has a massive recognition factor; clearly media experienced and articulate and certainly not someone who is going to scare away the punters. It’s far from out of the question that he MAY win the seat, and it will be good “celebrity candidate” choice that will have added those vital extra percentage points to the vote.
Lord D, Labor could easily shaft Katter off to the Speaker role, thereby banishing his influence to situations where Windsor sided with the Libs.
I believe state Labor have managed minority government and Rudd would cope just fine. I’m fine with anything that gets rid of this government.
That’s interesting news about Turnbull on the 7.30 report. Incidentally he and Lucy are hosting private drinks for select gay community representatives in Wentworth tonight. Not going to be too much joy for him there after party positions on the HREOC discrimination report were published during the week.
Costello would be PM unopposed: Howard:
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=305877
Well I oppose Costello being PM and I will be having my say on Saturday and that will be final.
LTEP: Actually minority ALP governments seem to do way better in the next election. Vic ALP, and QLD ALP did just that. I don’t know if that could be translated to a federal ALP, but it would depend on how things are run.
William,
A suggestion, whenever you post a pointer to a new thread, perhaps you could huperlink it so people can click on the thread and it opens in a new browser tab or window.
shanahan is off to washington if labor wins.
It will be interesting to see next week whether the Smirk will be elected opposition leader unopposed.
Most certainly, Marktwain. He looks like Joh with the silly engine for cars. Can’t quite recall what it was he (Joh) got sucked in by, in terms of means of propulsion, but was obvious that with a minimum understanding of chemistry, it was dumb. Similarly, with Malcolm, he just winds up looking like a very expensive (for the tax payer) goose. This administration goes from worse to worse, in relation to tackling some serious problems confronting us, and the most inept campaign I think I’ve ever seen in my life.
something to send your (otherwise) undecided friends: how they should vote on Saturday http://www.howshouldivote.com.au/default.aspx
So, is anyone prepared to call the marginals in Victoria?
Antonio at 221: “Why do we see ads about how high interest rates were under Whitlam?…”
The most pro-Labor demographic in each of the polls conducted over the last 12 months have been the under-30’s. These guys weren’t even a gleam in their Old Mans’ eye when Gough got the boot. How the hell are arcane references to something that happened before they were born supposed to mean anything to them?
I mean, you might as well bang-on about stuff that happened during WW2 or the Great Depression: “Vote for us, we’ll send more Rats to Tobruk” or “Vote for us, we”ll keep the Susso coming”
Ditto the “Union-Thug” thing.
The last time this country saw any significant level of Industrial disputation was in the late 1970’s-early1980’s. That’s ancient history to these kids. They were, what, 5 years-old at the time? And the “Unions-will-eat-your-children” ads are supposed to mean something to them?
They mean sweet FA. They simply don’t connect, because there is no shared experience to connect to.
What does connect is the Labor theme about housing affordability and mortgages. A mortgage is something they do have experience with. And since 2004, they’ve had the experience of 6 separate rate rises. Do ya reckon they’re happy campers?
The Libs have run a pathetic campaign.
As for the 7.30 Report’s expose of Malcolm’s “Rainman” funding, I suspect that discovering that their local candidate has been doing a De-Anne with some of his campaign contributors might be the last straw for the good burghers of Wentworth.
Come Saturday, I reckon it will be raining for the Libs in Wentworth after tonight’s program.
Charlie @ 129 ( if you are still on). You may want to reconsider Cook as safe for the Libs. I have got some good mail from their campaign that it is going to be very close. In fact a good friend says that he is convinced that it is “already in the bag.”
anyone who thinks hockey will lose north sydney is dreaming (as much as I would like to see it fall).
There are positive noises about Macarthur though.
Leaving aside the negative Lib ads, how positive as the ALP’s been? I think the Unions laid the ground work beautifully for this campaign and the ALP has just followed on with that.
Mr Skywalker:
Corangamite, Latrobe and McEwen. That’s all.
262, Yes – I am calling Corangamite and LaTrobe
Tabitha – Im coming back.
#100
Cook – Liberal hold easy.
Hughes- The marginal will be reigned in but Dana Valle will hold. Expect it to fall next time though….
Well, said, Rod at 240.
Its basically true: if you cast any eye over Australian history, the Tories always get dumped at the first sign of difficult times ahead. Sometimes they get reelected later (eg 1932, 1975), but they’re first port of call in a storm.
The coalition are essentially the cruise mode party, when Australians arent worried about too much, and want a big kip for a decade.
First sign of trouble, and the punters get serious – and boot them out.
Consider the evidence:
4 August 1914: Britain declares war on Germany.
17 September 1914: Australia dumps Joseph Cook (Commonwealth Liberal) for Andrew Fisher (Labor).
October 1929: US Stock market crashes
October 1929: Scullin (Labor) defeats Stanley Bruce (UAP)
October 1941: Independent MPs dump Menzies for John Curtin. Relected in massive landslide in 1943 (estimated 2PP 58.2%)
December 8 1941: Pacific War breaks out.
etc
Bogged down in loser war 1972, Oz calls Whitlam
Stagflation late 70 early 80s, Oz calls Hawke.
etc etc
‘they’re never first port of call’, that should have said.
An interesting piece in the Canberra Times today by Bruce Kent, a visiting fellow at the ANU. It compares the Howard government to Hitler’s regime (thus disobeying the internet law whose name I forget, that you DON’T compare your enemies/subjects/opponents to Hitler. Frankly, I’m surprised the CT published it and there will probably be howls in tomorrow’s letter columns.
(I think Bruce Kent is entirely accurate and stating the bleedingly obvious.)
Sorry my html skills are non-existent: you’ll need to copy the following url and paste it into your address box:
http://canberra.yourguide.com.au/news/opinion/opinion/familiar-ring-to-coalition-style/1088565.html
Maybe a fellow PB lurker/poster in the ACT with more IT skills than I have could (a) make a proper link; and (b) occasionally send links of Canberra Times items to PB.
There’s some well-considered stuff in the rag, particularly in relation to public service impacts of a change of government. (The Canberra Times is a Fairfax publication now that Rural Press has been bought by Fairfax.) Their reliance on Pat(t)erson (spelling?) for polling is disappointing. I’d love the CT to conduct a poll of Senate voting intentions in the ACT but if they use Patterson, it’ll be suss.
For those of you on PB who think that how the ACT votes on Saturday is a great big yawn, let me remind you of this: Territory senators take their seats on Day 1 of the new parliament, unlike state senators who only take their seats on 1 July 2008. GetUp has conducted/ is conducting an enormous campaign in the ACT to unseat Liberal Senator Gary Humphries. The ALP and Greens have a deal to swap preferences. The campaign is based squarely around the premise that if Howard gets back but the ACT votes out Humphries, then Howard loses his Senate majority from the first day of the next parliament and not just in July 2008. This is hugely relevant as an insurance policy if Howard slimes back in.
No 268
Try to keep the expletives to a minimum, Joe.
Anyone else notice the only channel not be running election coverage on Saturday evening, Channel 10, is running “The Empire Strikes Back”!
I wonder if this is an omen that Darth Howard will crush the rebelion lead by Luke Rudd! Will Han Garrett get frozen in carbonite and Leia Gillard be sold to slavery under Costello the Hutt?
I guess only time will tell
No 272
Anyone who compares the Howard government with Hitler has no credibility at all. It’s simply inappropriate, whether for Liberal or Labor.
All of the Rudd huggers expect so much from this election and since you will not achieve all that you desire you’ll likely be disappointed with the result.
The Victorian seats wont fall unless it’s a landslide and its not going to be a landslide. Rudd can only win this election from NSW and QLD he needs 10 from them and 3 from SA and 2 from Tassie, even so with 15 seats he loses Katter won’t back Labor, Windsor maybe.
No 272 :
Greens had it in the bag for the 2nd Senate seat. Kerrie is a local who is well-known and well-liked from local ACT Govt years.
Lib guy is locally unpopular for the same reasons, even amongst the almost infinitesimally small Liberal voters in the ACT region.
However, as of today – for the first time in the 22 years I’ve lived here, Liberals are offerring us “pork”?????
Save the National Botanic Gardens??
Shock, horror! That is desperation!
Do you know, after seeing the 7:30 report, I ‘m starting to take a closer look at Mrs Cornes?
What I mean is, I know that she can sometimes string two or three whole senteces togethor in a row, she’s blonde and cute, so why not vote for her?
Seriously, if you live in Boothby and you already think Kevin’s going to roll it in, so your know your vote doesn’t count why not vote for Cornes and have something entertaining on the TV over the next three years
William:
Re my comment at 272 above: Please no-one comment on my internet unsavviness. I haven’t the slightest clue why a thing I put into my comment suddenly gets turned into an active link. It’s magic.
If you say so Glen
Anyone else notice the only channel not be running election coverage on Saturday evening, Channel 10, is running “The Empire Strikes Back”!
Shows how seriously they take the whole thing, I suppose.
Not to worry. The Empire always gets it’s arse kicked.
Mr Squiggle did the ABC say that anybody they interviewed about Cornes was a Labor Member or that any of those people at her street corner soap box speeches were Labor Members. She is a ding bat and Southcott has got things done for Boothby what has Cornes ever done for Boothby, spend money on clothes that’s about it (helping the local economy – Rudd speak).
Cornes should have studied some politics at University. Even a 1st year politics student would know Labor’s policies, she knew none and yet she wants to be the local MP WTF?
How is she going to help her constituents give them shopping/style advice???
At least the poor lady in Sturt who will be defeated has more ‘political brains’ than Nicole, even so didnt she turn down a shot at Adelaide in 2004 maybe she’s not as smart as i thought.
Needless to say that Rudd’s Kyoto ratification and emissions targets are a Bennite Solution, without even looking at the impact on the economy. This is the thin end of the wedge here if we mess this balance up between economy and environment we’ll lose lose.
Victoria is having an unseasonally hot week this week. Melbourne feels completely bleached out, as though it’s mid-February when it’s only mid-November.
Water has been a huge issue down here. Don’t estimate the extent to which that will tip more than a few marginal voters Labor’s way, when you see Howard hee-hawing again that “yes climate change is a significant challenge” but waffle, waffle, waffle..
Because women can’t know anything about politics. They only care about shopping!
We’ll see who’s laughing on Satruday night, won’t we Glen?
Glen, you say it wont be a landslide, at what time on Saturday do I look for your correction.
No Steph, the Labor candidate in Sturt she knew something about politics, Cornes on the other hand, knows nothing except some slogans from Rudd.
Glen,
Liberals will lose lose.
They are losing losers who will lose.
GG never pre-empt the people of Australia, we’ll find out on Saturday night. But i sincerely doubt it will be a landslide of 30+ seats they aren’t waiting for us with baseball bats even if we did lose it would be by less than 10 seats i believe.
Cornes is not a pollie. Neither were most of the Howard Pot Plants swept into parliament in 1996.
The difference is, the Howard vegetation is in for a major pruning.
It really will be Bonsai after the 24th.
No 288
Grow up.
Evan we can be assured that they at least knew Coalition policy before signing up as a candidate, Cornes knows nothing about Labor politics.
Generic Person,
Blog somehing intelligent you Liberal loser.
GG why is it so hard for you to debate a tory on Australian politics without resorting to childish name-calling?
What about the Tasmanian who quit as the Liberal candidate for Bass because of the pulp mill?
The great thing about having Cornes in Parliament is that you Liberal losers will be suffering in your jocks.
Maintain the faith (or for people of my generation, maintain the rage!)
The Oz politics Web site shows the following poll results for the Coalition.
2PP (most recent)
Morgan FTF 43.5
Newspoll 45.0
Nielsen 46.0
Galaxy 46.0 The simple unweighted average is 45.1%
Turning to the straight line of best fit starting from 01/03, the extrapolation to Nov 24 is
Morgan 42.7
Newspoll 45.2
Nielsen 46.0
Galaxy 46.2 The simple unweighted average is 45.0%
Turning to the straight line of best fit starting from 01/04 the extrapolation to Nov 24 is
Morgan 42.5
Newspoll 45.1
Nielsen 45.6
Galaxy 46.2 The simple unweighted average is 45.0%
I take some comfort from the fact that the latest available polls are completely in line with the long term predictions. 55/45 looks eminently achievable and this would surely be (in JHo’s own words) “annihilation” . Couldn’t happen to a more deserving bunch!!
Glen says: “Evan we can be assured that they at least knew Coalition policy before signing up..”
Really? Told them all about Workchoices did he? They sure kept pretty quiet about it.
Frank,
Where is Fitzroy Crossing? Weather Channel says it is forcast for 49 tomorrow (in WA)
Not Bass ShowsOn and our policy was yet to be finalised on the pulp mill oh and i believe the seat was Lyons.
Anyway he supported the Greens before hah, still even he had more of a grasp of politics than Cornes.
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