Laurie Oakes reports on the Channel Nine News that a McNair opinion poll has Joe Hockey and Labor’s Mike Bailey locked on 50-50 in North Sydney.
UPDATE: Sky News reveals the sample was 400.
UPDATE 2: Unsourced talk of primary vote figures of 44 per cent for Hockey and 41 per cent for Bailey.
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260 Comments
I am reminded of the public sacking by vote of Graham Kierath- the WA Minister who overlorded the WA Libs IR laws which Workchoices is closely based upon.
The swing against him was significantly higher than the state wide swing.
The reason was obvious- he had become the personal face of the most publically unpopular laws of the governemnet of the day.
Beautiful!!!!!!
Any idea of the sample size? Sounds too good to be true, don’t you think?
If one takes all these polls at face value, there would seem to be a great number of individual seats that will go right down to the wire on Saturday (and in the days to follow) …if one takes the polls at face value.
Well, that was a little unexpected (although probably not completely unexpected).
I expect the MOE will be big enough to show anything could happen on election night. Still, wouldn’t want to be Joe Hockey right about now.
Who was it that got on at $7? Guess McNair just made their night LOL
Wow! First time I’ve seen a poll for North Sydney. As I’ve said before, Mike Bailey has run a really impressive campaign and has been door-knocking for months now. It would be great to see him get up.
Maybe Joe doesn’t have to resign after all!
Big Blind Dave – what made Kierath’s demise so good was that he was an election night commentator and lost his seat on TV.
Hockey is also supposed to be on TV I think. Wouldn’t that be great to see.
It is pointless without the primary vote. Any idea?
And with Shrek on the Ch 7 cxoverage, he may just do a Kierath on screen as well
Hence the movement in Mike Bailey’s odds?
I’d love to see an event study done with betting and individual/national polls (Hello, Leigh and Wolfers?). The potential for ‘insider trading’ must be sizeable, and there’s no shortage of data. (And, thanks to places like the Poll Bludger, the question of ‘when is this info in the public domain?’ can be answered almost to the very minute).
Me thinks Joe better spend less time in the pie shop and more foot slogging.
Hell Yeah!
Thanks fro reminding me Michale- i remember the ever sinking posture as he sat next to the commentator and disputed the results
I wonder if this gives credence to the fact that the swing might not just be in the marginals but could also be in safe seats too. However we will have to look at the MOE to see how this goes.
A note to Possum, your “Final Countdown” scenario seems to be now in paly with the Liberals and Nats starting to unravel big time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
red wombat Says:
November 19th, 2007 at 8:15 pm
Me thinks Joe better spend less time in the pie shop and more foot slogging.
but joe loves pork pies!
Skynews said: “The Government has shelved a NEW WAVE of industrial relation changes”. This should send shivers down the Government’s spine, as this is coming from a friend.
Mike’s been working very hard. I saw him on Sunday and he is beetroot red with sunburn from tramping the streets and door knocking. He had a glint in his eye – daring to hope, I think. The campaign office is hopping and the place smells of sweat and optimism. Plenty of volunteers to go around, including blow-ins like me. Definitely one of the interesting ones to watch on the night.
(Unless all this talk of tight contests in the real marginals is true, in which case we’ll all be biting our nails over Macquarie and Bonner.)
If I could be ill disciplined in the last week of the campaign, I would go and campaign against Joe, 14 hours a day minimum.
Unfortunately I am part of the apparent WA ALP defensive.
What about the primary vote?
You’re better off cos we’re squeezing you dry:
“You have to love the Coalition’s spin on WorkChoices. The way they want to have it both ways. The way they try to tell us that WorkChoices is good for us because we can negotiate a better outcome for ourselves and on behalf of our kids. That the flexibility of AWAs is good for employers and employees.
But then they try to tell us that they’re keeping inflation and interest rates low because WorkChoices is “keeping wages under control.”
So which is it? Is it leading to people getting paid more or is it leading to people getting paid less? The overwhelming evidence seems to be it’s leading to people getting paid less and losing conditions – if you listen to Tony Abbott that is.”
http://www.livenews.com.au/Articles/2007/11/19/Youre_better_off_cos_were_squeezing_you_dry
Apparently channel 7 tried to FOI the new work choices reforms info from the department of PM & cabinet, and they put the kybosh on it.
I’m sure that won’t amuse 7 much in the lead up to the big day, nor is it a good look for the govt.
The speculation is great on this even without the document. What were they planning? They have been lying to us? Here comes the ACTU….
Yet another inept minister and Rodent supporter in danger.
Will be watching this one closely on saturday night.
Julie at earlier thread re Turnbull the Rainmaker on 7.30 Report …
One correction to your report – the scheme he backed proposes to create rain – from a cloudless sky. Reminds me of Joh backing some shonk who said he could run cars on water.
Jeez, William, you’re quick. Anyone else with a take on Turnbull ponying up $10 mill. of our hard earned for a fizzer? Anyone with a take on the NLP spending $290+ mill. of our hard earned on their advertising? Or will it all just go through to the keeper?
Am I the only one thinking the challenge on Saturday will be to stay sober enough for long enough to see all the wonderful results?
red wombat – “Me thinks Joe better spend less time in the pie shop and more foot slogging.”
Haha… I agree. Methinks that the ‘Widening’ of big Joe’s girth lends weight to charges that he hasn’t been campaigning as hard as he ought to, resulting in a ‘Narrowing’ of the polls in Labor’s favour. Perhaps there is a direct correlation between Joe’s waistline and the swing to Labor.
C’est moi, c’est moi, I’m forced to admit,
I’m far too noble to lie…”
Sorry if off topic 4 a minute but we are an hour and a half behind everybody else here so TDT just finished.
Is Anna Coren actually Mike Moore in drag.
That was possibly the weakest “puff piece” I have ever seen for either party, in watching 35 years of politics in Australia.
If polls like this can be believed it gives some credence to the idea that the Libs could just possibly hang on against a 53:47 type vote by playing all of their seats down to the wire.
Of course it is also a very risky strategy that could end in a wipe-out.
So, we need an add for the ALP with:
Rattus; We will never ever take WorkChoices further!
Followed by;
Rattus: We will never ever have a GST!
If anything will affect this campaign, this will. The Rattus Crew must be squirming.
Bring on Saturday.
Oh, and can we have some insightful comment from Tabitha on this matter please?
Bailey has worked hard for this and he owes a bit to his supporters including those on this site that get out there and help as well as blogging.
But Bailey would not have done this as a whim, he gave up a good career and job for something he thought he had more than a chance at and where he could make a difference.
I think any swing in North Sydney will be as a result of Bailey and his supporters hard work and not indicitive of the swing overall.
Hmm,
Methinks Perth won’t get the Coren love in with Howie& Pete – lead story on our TT is an interview with Lloyd Raney, Husband and Chief suspect of Murder Victin Corrin Raney.
ABC TV News still doing its best for the coalition. Second item on the 8.30 summary bulletin was the TT fluff piece interview with Dear Leader and smirk.
So these two do an interview and this is news? WTF?
Ofcourse we don’t know any of the fundamentals of this poll yet but lets assume for a moment that its right… it would give aid to the theory that a large portion of the swing is coming from leafy liberal suburbs. Ofcourse if the poll is correct it would also mean certain defeat for Howard in neighbouring Bennelong.
Just watched 7.30 report. What a bunch of namby pamby butter boys the 2 members for SA are? Is every liberal a clone of Dolly.
Sorry but people voted for these 2 ? Are SA’s really that deficient? And the Labor candidates, not only is Mia drop dead gorgeous but she is electrocharged. Nicole seems timid but don’t right her off. Pyne is gooooooooooooooonnn!
Oh and one of the kinder committee mums is a metereoligist. According to her we are f#$ked already. Absolutely nothing has been done to date.
Howard reckons if he wins Workchances will be there forever: is he trying for obliteration rather than a mere massacre?
On another note i heard tonight that labor polling in Boothby earlier in the campaign was showing a swing of 8%.
This shouldn’t be a surprise. People on here have been trying to say for weeks now (including Possum’s Pollycide papers months ago) that Liberal safe seats are going to swing like they’ve never swung before.
It is only LTEP’s and other “Labor pessimists” who have dismissed this as ‘fantasy’. It may be a fantasy, but it’s not a baseless fantasy. Nth Sydney, Wentworth, Bennelong and the like are just as likely to fall as the “classic” marginals.
This is of course where the 30+ seats will come from. The 55% TPP average hasn’t come out of thin air for 10 months……..
It’s bullsh-t that high profile MPs like Turnbull and Hockey will hold on because their profile. They will loose because of (and not in spite of) their profile. The government is on the nose, and the Ministers are hated far more than J’Ho himself.
Keep an eye on Higgins too!
Count my household as 2 votes for Mike! Wish the cat could vote…
Howard is going to earn himself a new name on Saturday, General Custer!
Is it just me, or does Simon Jackman have the most unreliable webpage of all time?
It seems to only work for me between 4 and 6 AM on Thursdays after a full moon.
Does it work for anyone else?
http://jackman.stanford.edu/
Only the carp themselves would know what’s at the bottom of the river.
ShowsOn, what goes wrong with it? works fine for me
42 NGK – Sorry to repeat a joke I posted earlier
Q-What were General Custer’s famous last words?
A- Where the f*ck did all those indians come from?
Woah! This gives credence to landslide theories. If Bailey even comes close, the Libs are in for the mother of all electoral shitstorms on Saturday.
By the way, I say 730 report too.
I hadnt noticed before. Nicole Cornes is a gobsmackingly beautiful woman.
44 ShowsOn-use http://jackman.stanford.edu/oz/Aggregate2007/bettingmarkets/index.php
Works every time
John Ryan, I’ve never dismissed any of it as fantasy. Not once. I think Wentworth, Bennelong and North Sydney will be tight. The Coalition will need luck to hold onto all 3. Which is possible.
I’ve actually posted evidence that it’s possible Turnbull could be out on the primaries given in the ACN. Comparatively to Richmond in the ‘04 election they’re very similar. I think its wrong to assume seats like these will stay just because of high profile members. You can’t dismiss some polls and embrace others, which is exactly what some people are doing. My modus operandi is to treat all the polls with caution, and to look at repeat polls. Bennelong, Wentworth and North Sydney have produced at least 2 polls each showing the Coalition in danger. You can’t ignore that.
Still… you’d have to admit that these seats are additionials and not ones that Labor will be banking on to win the election.
shows on you’re missing something try this
http://jackman.stanford.edu/oz/Aggregate2007/bettingmarkets/index.php
I don’t really know what that means.
Thanks, but it doesn’t work for me
After everything that I had read about Nicole Cornes I was surprised about how articulate and thoughtful she was. I was really expecting the biggest bimbo ever. But no, she was actually OK.
I rekon Newspoll will somehow find a way to put the Tories back in the game 53-47 or 52-48 even
ShowsOn, I get the RSS feed for Simon Jackman’s blog, and I’ve never had a problem with it.
Maybe your privacy settings are set too high
What’s the address for the RSS feed?
Hmmmm. I would love to see Hockey have the stick taken to him but the vibe on the ground here in North Sydney suggests a swing (maybe 5-7% – my humble opinion – no insider info). Mike is a good candidate but 10% is too much to make up. Darn!
#47
Diogenes
LOL
I agree this truly will be Howards last stand!
I’m adding a 2.5% “Minister for WorkChoices” factor to any North Sydney predictions.
hopefully Tim Flannery will be on Lateline to explain all this…. re: turnball and his rainmaker research grant, and also explain why he thinks turnballs so great.
It is because Turnbull is so high profile and a potential leader. Flannery probably figures that you need high profile politicians to keep environmental issues at the front of the agenda.
forget about the unions, hockey’s the bogey man.
I suspect the MOE would be at least 5%
HOWEVER
Mr Bailey is a good & hardworking candidate first serious alp candidate for ages
Mr Hockey is the public face of “work choices ”
The North Shore of Sydney is trending slowly towards labor, in 2004
every seat swung to Labor despite to overall swing to the Libs this I think was worth 2% in North Sydney
say 8 % NSW swing 2% re candidates 2% doctors wife’s 1% work choices
this extends beyond the margin Mr Hockey has!!!!
Actually, it’s on now in Perth.
I can not for the life of me figure out where SBS finds these objective journalists. Who trains these people? Are they not aware of how to scew a story to suit the big end of town?
Tory Crimes @ 55
I would be suprised if Newspoll came out with a figure like 48-52 unless it were true. It is better for the Coalition if everybody thinks they will loose.
I would be interested to see the details of this poll, as I really can’t see the Labor Party winning this seat.
As I’ve been saying,the big swing is OOOOOONNNNNN!!!!!
Turnbull may turn out to be the pivotal Liberal politician of the future. He has some credentials on green issues, pulp mill or no pulp mill, and is maybe the only person on the right who can bring the coalition to their senses on climate issues.
The post-Howard era is coming, one way or another. Whoever succeeds him is going to have bring the right up to scratch with no time to waste. I can’t see another Liberal on the horizon who is inclined to take on the task. Maybe Turnbull isn’t either. There are not many to choose from. Geez, better vote Rudd and hope for the best.
Just so everybody understand MOE is based on a bell curve. It is much, much, much more likely that a poll is out by a small amount than a large amount. It is the bias in the poll that determines whether it is accurate or not.
Newspoll don’t exactly have a good recent record of picking the final result.
They did a poll on the Thursday and Friday before the last election, that was published on election day. It was 50 / 50 2pp with a 0.5 increase to Labor compared to the previous poll.
As we all know, the final result was basically 53/47.
ShowsOn, here it is… http://jackman.stanford.edu/blog/?feed=rss2
showson @ 73
Sorry I meant unless they believe it
Turnbull – former General Counsel for the Packer family. Now slipping $10 million to the Murdoch family.
Yet people think he is a psuedo greeny. Wallies.
I have had a firm (slightly softer than hard) spot for Turnbull since the Republic Refferendum.
If he was Lib leader the ALP would be having to work a hell of a lot harder
Don’t waste your optimism. Cats all vote Liberal.
Which is why I switched over to dogs.
Frank Calabrese, what the hell is on now in Perth?
Howard/Costello with Coren.
Bushfire, If my cat voted Liberal, it would still be asleep
Frank, have a look at Costello’s body language…..”what the F#CK am i doing here?”
I had a lazy tener on bailey at 7s.
On another note can you imagine the worldwide headlines when Australia signs Kyoto? They might not find out about our election but you can bet your bnottom dollar that when we sign. Front page every paper big smiles side stories filling pages.
“Australia signs, America out in the cold.”
We’ve already signed. We haven’t ratified.
Bet this gets a run:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22785404-2,00.html
Humpty dumpty (you can’t unscramble Work Choices) Hockey deserves a few sleepless nights. If only. Go Mike!
Snapper,
You don’t know what your cat gets up to after you all go to sleep, do you? Admit it.
I thought my own cats used to curl up at the end of the bed after lights out.
I was wrong.
[November 19th, 2007 at 8:58 pm
ShowsOn, here it is… http://jackman.stanford.edu/blog/?feed=rss2
Won’t work.
Can you just tell me what his prediction is? How many seats?
I did (it was on at around 6.50pm, after 3 stories on the Raney Murder case where the husband was interviewed),
it looked like neither of them wanted to be there and it was an obvious pre-record because Howard was in Perth today.
This story is really taking of in the news.
Secret IR plans kept from public:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22785404-2,00.html
THE Howard Government secretly planned to extend its unpopular Work Choices laws further two years ago but shelved the idea, documents confirmed today.
Prime Minister John Howard’s department drew up changes to the industrial relations laws in 2005, Channel Seven reported.
But voters will not be allowed to know what the Government was planning, with a two-and-a-half year Freedom of Information battle failing today.
The Administrative Appeals Tribunal ruled that releasing the details was not in the public interest, saying the Government was accountable for what it had done but not for what it might be planning to do.
ALP favoured to win in 79 of 150 seats (# seats with average ALP win prob > .5)
*
ALP Expected Seat Count: 80.73 out of 150 seats. Yesterday: 79.99 out of 149. Computed as the sum of the 3-agency-average seat-by-seat ALP win probabilities.
*
National Market, 3 agency average probability of Labor win: 0.769 (Yesterday: 0.78)
*
National Market:
Agency ALP Coalition ALP Prob 2007-11-18
centrebet 1.25 4.00 0.762 0.793
portlandbet 1.23 4.10 0.769 0.769
sportingbet 1.22 4.25 0.777 0.777
*
Bennelong Market:
Agency ALP Coalition Other ALP Prob 2007-11-18
centrebet 2.30 1.55 109.42 0.399 0.399
portlandbet 2.30 1.55 251.00 0.401 0.358
sportingbet 2.40 1.50 51.00 0.378 0.374
*
5 biggest daily changes in average ALP win probabilities:
Division 2007-11-19 2007-11-18 Change
Page 0.571 0.513 0.058 ?
Robertson 0.562 0.539 0.023 ?
Brand 0.814 0.791 0.022 ?
Braddon 0.810 0.790 0.020 ?
Herbert 0.599 0.579 0.020 ?
*
10 biggest 7 day changes in average ALP win probabilities:
Division 2007-11-19 2007-11-12 Change
Page 0.571 0.467 0.104 ?
La Trobe 0.572 0.473 0.099 ?
Herbert 0.599 0.513 0.086 ?
Hasluck 0.641 0.564 0.078 ?
Braddon 0.810 0.733 0.077 ?
Wentworth 0.411 0.334 0.077 ?
Eden-Monaro 0.779 0.704 0.076 ?
Cowan 0.696 0.622 0.074 ?
Moreton 0.831 0.770 0.061 ?
Makin 0.855 0.794 0.061 ?
Repeat. ALP winnning Higgins might be a Labor hacks wet dream, but there is more chance of them finding a three-legged ballerina.
Geez, Frank C., I think you can just about discount that nonsense, on the basis that Coren has the gravitas of a gnat on valium.
WorkChoices here for good if Coalition wins: PM
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/19/2095012.htm
Please can that be the headline on every newspaper tomorrow!!
Gotta admire his gumption. Guess the ALP will be forced to agree with him!
The Bennelong betting market is finally on the move. The newspoll marginal poll on the weekend kicked things into gear, and this north sydney poll has moved things along even further this evening.
On centrebet Howard was on about 1.43 last week. Now he’s at 1.58.
3 legged ballerina is a nick name many gay guys would have in Higgins. So there are heaps of them Smelly.
Thanks for that, but what is his final result prediction at this blog post:
http://jackman.stanford.edu/blog/?p=458
I live in this electorate. Shrek will win even though I’ll be voting for Mike.
Mike is a lovely gentle man and in a short time has made many friends in this electorate. There is however, a large Armenian vote and they will stick with Shrek and his Armenian background. He was campaigning with Gladys Berejiklian, the State MP. again quite popular as she has tackled public transport in earnest.
Shrek is very likeable and I can’t see him losing.
Gladys faced a tough opponent in the State election being the mayor and in fact she increased her majority. People see Howard/Costello as the engineers of workchoices, Shrek as the poor messenger.
Those sneaky Taswegians!!
Abbott says Tas Govt obstructing Mersey deal
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/19/2095187.htm?section=justin
I’m thinking Howard would only venture to Tasmania if the deal has been sorted, or if they can somehow make it seem like it’s all the state’s fault…
94
Howard has lost his mind!
Odds have shifted slightly in favour of Labor in Eden-Monaro on Portlandbet – down from $1.25 to $1.24.
Interestingly, their national figure is still at $1.23/$4.10 – it hasn’t followed the movements in Centrebet or Sportingbet.
83 centaur-Sorry, that’s incorrect. I mentioned earlier that Kazakstan is in the boat Kyoto-wise as USA and Australia. But that’s even better! USA and Kazakstan vs the World. Now that’s a headline!
Howard: “If we win on Saturday then the reforms that we have brought about will never be reversed by a future federal Labor government”
Ken Bruce has gone completely mad!!!!!
Laurie Oakes suggested he try this exact strategy.
97 Shows on – I can’t be bothered reading it all but it ends with:
Barring something amazing in this last week, or a marginal seats miracle, Labor will win, and win comfortably.
Odds on Dawson have shifted big time today – Labor is down from $3.20 to $2.85.
Ah OK. Someone else told me he thinks the final result will be 54/46. Possum thinks it will be 55, I think it will be 53.5, but I’m a pessimist.
Bushfire, if the cat woke up sufficiently to register anything at all, it would only be to figure out where’s it’s next meal was coming from and who was going to provide it. Bit like dogs, really. Bit like COBs. Maybe that’s cruel?
97 ShowsOn- He predicts 54-46. I’ll read the rest and give more details sonn.
That’s OK. 54 is a landslide, that’s enough.
I’m still trying to figure out why my browser hates his webpage, but have no idea what I’m doing!
I’m with Possum – it will be very close to 55 on election night.
This is a bit of a fillip for Rudd:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/NRMA-welcomes-Labors-2b-roads-pledge/2007/11/19/1195321694034.html
Anyting been heard/ said re Newspoll yet?
From a previous post: “You may want to reconsider Cook as safe for the Libs. I have got some good mail from their campaign that it is going to be very close. In fact a good friend says that he is convinced that it is “already in the bag.”
There are some 4,000 AWU members in the electorate. Almost 1/2 voted for JWH in ‘04. A lot have been or are being affected by job cuts at QANTAS. The “word” is that they are swinging back.
A popular local member, Bruce Baird is retiring.
Michael Towke woke the sleepy Miranda Libs from their slumber. This is not the area which is going to support a Lebanese candidate accused of branch stacking. The subsequent replacement, Scott Morrisson, is a no name ring in. He has lived in the area for a whole year! Might not mean much to you non-shirees but we tend to riot when we don’t like outsiders.
Anyway there were a couple of Mark Buttegeigs boys with big smiles today.
104 Shows On When did Laurie suggest that?
85 Grog
So Howard says
“If we win on Saturday then the reforms that we have brought about will never be reversed by a future federal Labor government,”
Sheesh he’s now campaining for the ALP
SKY WILL have a sneak preview of the Newspoll. will report more when I hear it
In his recent Bulletin article.
http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/coalitions_interesting_times.htm
Newspoll have released a poll of 18 marginals.
http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/1121%20Marginals%20Two%2019-11-07.pdf
The secret WorkChoices plan which the Coalition won’t allow to be releashed under Freedom of Information will be the gift that keeps on giving. This is a Network 7 news (#1 in Sydney) report and FOI request.
News Ltd. Chief Exec. Officer, Hartigan, is passionate about FOI, and is one of the leaders of the campaign to reverse the alarming level of secrecy over the past decade, so Skynews ran the Network 7 report untouched as its lead news item the past few hours. It’s also the top headline item on their website:
http://www2.skynews.com.au/
Skynews Agenda Election 07 just started with this as first item of discussion for David Speers and a panel of News Ltd. journos.
114
Great news Mark (from a fellow shiree) – any news on how Greg Holland is going in Hughes?
I’m still going 91 seats to Labor. How it actually plays out, well who the hell knows. I’ve been reading this and Possum’s site and Ozpolitics, when I get a chance, and as far as I can make out, the LNP are right royally screwed. Gawn. Couldn’t happen to a more deserving crew.
ShowsOn-Jackmans conclusion.
The bottom line: yes, there is a trend back to the government, or at least there was early in the campaign, but its too little, too late. Labor is headed for about 54% 2PP nationally. So barring something spectacular this last week (and we will get a couple more national polls before the weekend), or the Coalition pulling off the greatest marginal seat “run-of-the-table” in Australian electoral history, Labor will win, and win comfortably.
Expect the sneak peek of Newspoll to come out around 9:45/9:50 AEDT.
He’s tried everything else!
Only a few atoms left at the bottom of the barrel to scrape away at now…
114 Considering Cook
A very similar seat in the WEST is Canning
Same very high AWU membership that voted very strongly for Lib last time (yes they were polled). In fact just about the whole electorate revolves around the Alcoa mines spread throughout.
In addition, last election the ALP super stuffed the election in this seat by having three candidates over a very short time, a couple barelly credible.
Expect a big swing, but i am starting to believe it will not fall this time. Yes that’s right, it was possible earlier in the campaign.
You can watch Sky election news on this link, currently talking abot workchoices mkii:
http://www.news.com.au/live/popup/
The last time it was leaked on Sky wasn’t it the 53-47 “narrowing”, so I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s good news for the LIbs.
Dennis from gg on now
http://www.news.com.au/live/popup/
WTF is going on with Dennis “Richie Benaud” Shamaham.
Newspoll coming shortly on The Gallery.
In this morning’s column of smh, Ross Gittins totally discredits how JWH has deduced the number of jobs losy abolishing Workchoices would create. His column in the Business Section is titled Econometrics Equals Tricks .
[You can watch Sky election news on this link, currently talking abot workchoices mkii: http://www.news.com.au/live/popup/
Shanahan borrowed one of Richie Benaud’s jackets.
Maxine needs to get around 3000 of Howard’s votes from 2004 – one of my friends told me tonight that her 90 year old mum will vote Labor for the first time – she believes in Maxine – and what this means for Australia!!
And here’s a catchy you tube video about the 3000 votes – what’s your favourite number John?
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=FtptNEXWp3Q
Great to see Mike Bailey also getting more votes!! We all need to stay focused and resolute. Mike won’t be the only one with sunburn after Saturday!!
Only on the wrong side of Williams Road, centaur
Based on a good week for Rudd and but a cannondale of Liberal attack ads – 54/46
Sky panel is completely taking the p#ss out of Toadies Tonite’s interview with Johnnie and Pete. They’re all giggling.
84 LETP – wow, a post of yours I agree with, maybe the new dawn really is upon us?!
I have before now been accused at work (can’t say where) of being an international law trainspotter for insisting on the difference between signature and ratification but it does matter a bit. For those new to the game, it helps to think in 19th century terms, where those signing an agreement were not in instantaneous electronic communication with their central government, hence the need for agreements to be confirmed by ratification.
But it’s still surprising to see well informed people (i.e. most those on this blog), and those “posing as” well informed (in the MSM), missing the distinction, regarding the fairly well publicised Kyoto protocol and the less well publicised fact that the present government of Australia did in fact sign, although it now dismisses said treaty.
Signature does not involve a commitment to be bound by the treaty concerned – but it does involve commitments to (1) consider ratification in good faith and (2) not engage in acts which would defeat the purposes of the treaty, at least pending a decision on ratification. Another little bit of the context which makes Australia’s non-ratification of Kyoto, at least prior to 25 November 2007, Just Too Freaky.
Wow – if it’s this tense for a Newspoll, it’s going to be fun on this site at 5:45pm AEDT on Saturday…
Helen McCabe has the brain the size of a pea, and that’s very disrespectful to peas.
Ready for the Newspoll result!!!!
If it is less than 53/47 I won’t get to sleep tonight!!!
The Rodent stuffs up again in the AFR
Howard’s IR pledge fuels wage worries
http://www.afr.com/home/viewer.aspx?EDP://20071119000019978031&magsection=news&title=Howard%27s+IR+pledge+fuels+wage+worries&source=/_xmlfeeds/home/feed.xml
Richie Shanahan!
Yep, Dennis is channeling Richie Benaud. It’s spooky.
Geez they’re not really being all that positive on the way they’re handling the transition
WTF is happening to Shanahans hair??
Has there been any word from Howard today about the evil union bosses successfully rescuing their evil union minions from the gold mine in Ballarat today? It’s a wonder he didn’t rock up with a cement mixer and start filling the shaft in.
Who else is nervous (apart from me)?
He looks like he’s had a perm.
soooo nervous
If Labor are getting 53 or 54 in most coalition marginals, that means they are probably on 55 or 56 in their own safe seats and marginals
So I think Newspoll will be 55/45.
Oh thats great news – no changes to work choices is something thats “set in stone” according to JWH. Would that be sandstone John?
Surely if there was a 52-53 they would lead with it?
It was 55/45 last week! Please let it be 55/45 again!
grog- I agree
I can’t hear Dennis for the spinning sound.
WHIZZZZ!!! WHIZZZZ!!!!
Why is it that Shanahan’s commentary technique is suspiciously like free association?
Dennis is sticking with the ‘better economic manager’ thing. Perhaps he should try the number ‘choo’.
You have to worry when Debnam is the most intelligent Liberal…
Bushfire Bill and Snapper. You’ll be pleased to know that my cat actually chundered up a huge furball at the very moment Howard and Costello were on telly together. I had to escort her outside and mop the kitchen floor.
I don’t know which way my cat votes, but given that we’re in the seat of Batman, she probably votes for Catwoman. She wouldn’t vote Green, as she likes to attack wildlife. Perhaps she’d support the local Labor member, Martin Ferguson, because she likes to see a feral gumment.
Hurry up goddamit- got a 7 month baby to feed.
I will go with 55/45 or better for the alp.
Anything less than 53/47 will be a bit of a shock.
i’m still on libs by 5 and three more very long even darker years.
howard once said (i can’t remember where) when he first got elected that he would make changes which would take 50 years of labor government to turn back.
his work of giving the greedy people of this sad little country what they deserve is not complete.
i think the marginal polling is very bad.
it’s that gap between the first dozen and the rest.
labor is not exploiting the bad news enough. they are coasting. they need to go in for the kill. they have sufficient material with the regional pork barrel and now the workchoices foi revelation, but they are scared to look too negative.
it will cost them the election.
Get on with it!
I reckon 54 or 55 to Labor.
Same as the running average.
57/43 is my prediction
Helen McCabe has no idea given she thought the Coalition won week 5 (last) of the campaign. No credibility.
it can’t be good if they haven’t mentioned it. maybe its just the same, so its not really worthy of talking about.
my pred: 53:47
Bah, usual Sky News frippery. Give us the Newspoll and the alleged journos some Xanax please.
turfmeister, I’m with you
55/45 is my estimate
#47 Where was Bill Shorten? Ballarat is just up the road from Maribyrnong (more or less). Apparently the miners talked about “sex” while they were trapped underground.
You would have thought they’d be discussing AWAs, and what to do when the mining boom ends.
Wally @ 121 Sorry don’t have any goss’ on Hughes except to say that Dana Vale is an intellectual peanut and come back Bobby Tickner.
sorry previous comment refers to #147, not #47
I just put a few dollars on Mike Bailey at iasbet.com (Mark Reeds Site) and they’re still offering 6.50. If this polls anywhere near right, the bargain of the year!!
maybe they just have someone monitoring this site and are waiting for the desperation to reach a peak before releasing the number?
Still reckon 56/44
Helen McCabe pro liberal crap what about Lathan?
i’ve got the cream, the white, the off white, the beige……
David Speers is a pathetic apologist for the tories.
Ratsak – LOL
My prediction -55/45
I pray you are right Pi!!!!!
Gotta admit – bad use of the globe by Rudd (I heard it on the radio and it sounded good – on TV not so good)
wish people would stop typing numbers
All Ive got is F#cking Stan Grant in a bad Roger Davidsuit
Newspoll after the break on Sky…
SKY has ads?!?!
Isn’t enough that people cough up for pay TV?? What a waste of money…
oooo – the guy with the lovely eyes… I don’t listen to the message, just get lost in those eyes
they just said “this reports come out when they are struggling to make up a huge margin”- a clue?
T-minus 1 minute and counting…
The cream, the white, the off-white, the ivory, or the beige…
Yes, I know luv…
Not being a ky watcher – do they normally run with good news for the govt up front?
What did they do last time when they had the 53-47?
an ad!! this is worse than Oz Idol!!! arghhh!!!!!!!!!!!! ( and i know i’ll cop it for that reference!)
Hockey 44/41 primaries in Nth Syd
If you want anymore evidence that Labor are going to win this election, this opinion poll would be the one you would cite. Hockey will probably win, but the simple fact that pollsters need to bother sampling this electorate, and its even remotely close means labor might win 2/3 of the seats it needs in NSW alone. After all there are 12 more marginal seats in NSW than North Sydney.
My guess is 57/43
I hate to think what some of you are going to be like on election night!
44 primary to Hockey, 41 to Bailey in McNair poll. 50/50 TPP. Didn’t catch the sample size.
Dario, where did you get that from?
refresh, refresh, refresh
refresh, refresh, refresh
refresh, refresh, refresh
refresh, refresh, refresh
refresh, refresh, refresh …
From Australian Website: 54:46 2PP more details tomorrow
refresh x 100
….new page….
Newspoll announced on Sky: 54/46
Primaries 46/41
Does anyone think they have had the Newspoll figures since the start of the show, and thus it has coloured all their comments?
Or do you think they only just got it?
There’s lots of government ministers struggling to crack 45 on primaries.
Turnbull, Pyne, Hockey, Nair…
54/46
Newspoll 54-46
yay! I predicted it correctly!!!
PPM Rudd 46/42
dennis – the narrowing, the narrowing
So ESJ is up for $100
So… same as always.
Why is Shanahan dressed as Richie Benaud?
hmmm…. what to make of that….. hmmmm……………..
My God, I’m shocked!!!! Who would have thought that the polls haven’t moved at all?
Thats Ok! I am breathing again and can probably sleep. Crazy!
Tomorrow’s News Poll
Primaries ALP 46, Coalition 41
TPP ALP 54, Coalitionm 46
Shanahan is back on his preferred prime minister theorem…
I can relax now – it’s the status quo…
What are the shifts in primaries/PPM?
Adrian @ 36 – re the ABC’s coverage, I think they’re suffering from having the ruler constantly run over them by Rehame, which is monitoring every minute of their coverage. So if they run a story that’s critical of the government, no matter how important it is, they often drop it from the next bulletin in favour of a pro-government or anti-ALP ’story’, even when it’s not news at all. I’ve noticed this happening with several significant stories of late – the ANAO, Andrews reviewing all the detainees’ documentation etc. The story will run for a very short time, then be replaced by fluff.
It’s what Janet Albrechtson calls ‘balance’.
Shanahan banging on about how Liberal are close on primaries
Shamaham alredy singing Howard and Costello’s praises again on Sky after these numbers… he makes me sick
Sadly I can see this happening – though I have a lazy $15 on Mike. Sadly because I’m Armenian and one of the few I know who is solidly left. For reasons I’ll never be able to understand, the Armenian block vote, not just in this electorate but generally, trends solidly Liberal. (If Howard scrapes back in in Bennelong, the Armenian contingent there will be pivotal – I apologise on their behalf.)
New thread up.
Primaries though… that’s a significant shift overall
There’s something even better than this! ESJ lost his $100 53-47 bet!!
Dennis Shanahan needs a drink – he’s even reverting to the doctors’ wives cr#p – but he is right that Howie and gang are desperate.
Shock, horror, Shanahan talks about Better Economic Manager and PPM…
Yes, 54/46 – its only a 6.7% swing on 2004.
Polls haven’t moved all year, why will they move in the last week?
Same as before, no (or only very mild) narrowing in evidence since week 1 of campaign.
a seat by seat proposition…. oh reeeeeally…….
Primaries: ALP 46 (down 2) Coalition 41 (up 1)
moe folks, nothing’s changed
PPM: Rudd 46 (down 2) Howard 42 (up 2)
Well well well…..
Here we are in the final straight and it looks like we are well and truly in clover.
The “protest vote” Latham referred to in the AFR has turned out to be no more than about 2-3% (ALP TPP avg prior to election 57). Since the election it has “narrowed” to 54 and stayed rock solid. Gentlemen, please put down your glasses.
HUZZAH!!
Take that Rodent. Its, like, over dude.
Here’s the running order for Saturday Night:
First we take Bennelong. (Embrucement phase)
Then, we take the Nation (Emruddment phase)
Then we dismantle the most odious elements of your legacy (Derodent phase)
The the Libs trash you for a decade. Im afraid we cant control that one.
Hahahahahaha… then back to back Liberal interest rate and ‘wall to wall’ ads on Sky News after Agenda finished. Don’t these dumbass Libs know that swinging voters don’t watch Sky????? What a waste of money!
OK get real everyone
NARROWING IS HAPPENING!
By my calculations the libs have probably closed the gap by 0.2% per week since the election was called.
That means absoulutely nothing in terms of who will win of course, but I’m sure it will be mentioned in the GG
Why the H is there such a delay in getting the damn thing up on Sky???? It makes me so tense, etc. A 46-41 margin probably means a 7% Grn vote, so Labor’s 2PP is probably better than 54-46.
Shanahan doesn’t really know anything else and can’t really compute life without the contacts that have served him sooooo well this year.
Size of the North Sydney poll was 400 sampled.
McNair sample for North Sydney was 400 by the way MOE of about 4.5%+
Please show some disrespect and call him Sham-a-ham
Averaging bookmakers odds is logically and practically flawed because it does not reflect the true market probabilties.
Factors of; individual bookmakers needing to balance their books to a certain degree, odds being offered not in contention of being executed, and differences of overround being offered by each bookie, become taken into account.
To calculate the true market probability, the best or equal best odds offered in the market should be used.
So Diogenes, Simon Jackman dosen’t do it properly after all.
If you don’t believe it, check out the way S.P. are determined at racetracks.
Sorry there Dario – I was used to keying in ”Shanahack ” but thought I’d try something new. A bit like I’d like to see Dennis do – like a new thought or a new job
Also noted were the swings. Helen McCabe said that the swing in NSW from the last poll taken was @ 7%. The swing in this poll was 10%. That means that Work Choices is worth 3% to Mike Bailey. North Sydney WILL swing more than the average in NSW
Concerned about Minister Malcolm’s splash into Venture Rainfall, I phoned my dear, dear friend Lady Ponsonby-Smythe of Point Piper on the QT.
On her third sweet sherry, her ladyship was feeling expansive.
“Well, dah-ling, what do you expect? No self-respecting Water Diviner who knew Rupert or Malcolm would ever DREAM of getting off their ars* for less than $10 mill.!”
Right you are, ma’am.
Mark, I’d love to see Cook come into play. I was at Ray Thorburn’s election party when he lost it to Don Dobie in 1975 after taking it from him in 1972. It’s been grim since. Scott Morrison is invisible. He’s been planting posters on local high schools only to have the grounds assistants remove them on the next school day. I also agree, Dana Vale is a vintage peanut.
54-46 Lateline preview
Howard has narrowed the gap on Preferred PM! Noes!
Re: Nth Sydney….surely the GETUP campaign against Hockey would also help Mike Bailey, just as the ‘Not Happy John’ campaign was effective in reducing Howard’s margin in Bennelong last election?
Newspoll 54-46 ALP
Primary Labor 46 down 2, Liberal up 1
Bob Brown on LL. Didn’t waste a second. Masterly!!!!!
ShowsOn, he doesn’t give a specific prediction but he does say, “Barring something amazing in this last week, or a marginal seats miracle, Labor will win, and win comfortably.” Hope this helps
Is that the fat lady I hear singing
North Sydney is my dream result. A bit of money has gone on this one recently. I got $7 on Bailey, now it’s in to around $4.
The Armenians in the US seem to be heavily Republican. As in Australia, they tend to vote as a bloc and are *very* politically organized. I wonder why…
On another subject, does anyone know where I could find a live internet feed of the election?
Armenians are the archetypal small bizos, just behind the Jews. Armenians have also held a prominent place in Singapore and HK, punching above their weight.