Laurie Oakes reports on the Channel Nine News that a McNair opinion poll has Joe Hockey and Labor’s Mike Bailey locked on 50-50 in North Sydney.
UPDATE: Sky News reveals the sample was 400.
UPDATE 2: Unsourced talk of primary vote figures of 44 per cent for Hockey and 41 per cent for Bailey.
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Odds have shifted slightly in favour of Labor in Eden-Monaro on Portlandbet – down from $1.25 to $1.24.
Interestingly, their national figure is still at $1.23/$4.10 – it hasn’t followed the movements in Centrebet or Sportingbet.
83 centaur-Sorry, that’s incorrect. I mentioned earlier that Kazakstan is in the boat Kyoto-wise as USA and Australia. But that’s even better! USA and Kazakstan vs the World. Now that’s a headline!
Howard: “If we win on Saturday then the reforms that we have brought about will never be reversed by a future federal Labor government”
Ken Bruce has gone completely mad!!!!!
Laurie Oakes suggested he try this exact strategy.
97 Shows on – I can’t be bothered reading it all but it ends with:
Barring something amazing in this last week, or a marginal seats miracle, Labor will win, and win comfortably.
Odds on Dawson have shifted big time today – Labor is down from $3.20 to $2.85.
Ah OK. Someone else told me he thinks the final result will be 54/46. Possum thinks it will be 55, I think it will be 53.5, but I’m a pessimist.
Bushfire, if the cat woke up sufficiently to register anything at all, it would only be to figure out where’s it’s next meal was coming from and who was going to provide it. Bit like dogs, really. Bit like COBs. Maybe that’s cruel?
97 ShowsOn- He predicts 54-46. I’ll read the rest and give more details sonn.
That’s OK. 54 is a landslide, that’s enough.
I’m still trying to figure out why my browser hates his webpage, but have no idea what I’m doing!
I’m with Possum – it will be very close to 55 on election night.
This is a bit of a fillip for Rudd:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/NRMA-welcomes-Labors-2b-roads-pledge/2007/11/19/1195321694034.html
Anyting been heard/ said re Newspoll yet?
From a previous post: “You may want to reconsider Cook as safe for the Libs. I have got some good mail from their campaign that it is going to be very close. In fact a good friend says that he is convinced that it is “already in the bag.”
There are some 4,000 AWU members in the electorate. Almost 1/2 voted for JWH in ‘04. A lot have been or are being affected by job cuts at QANTAS. The “word” is that they are swinging back.
A popular local member, Bruce Baird is retiring.
Michael Towke woke the sleepy Miranda Libs from their slumber. This is not the area which is going to support a Lebanese candidate accused of branch stacking. The subsequent replacement, Scott Morrisson, is a no name ring in. He has lived in the area for a whole year! Might not mean much to you non-shirees but we tend to riot when we don’t like outsiders.
Anyway there were a couple of Mark Buttegeigs boys with big smiles today.
104 Shows On When did Laurie suggest that?
85 Grog
So Howard says
“If we win on Saturday then the reforms that we have brought about will never be reversed by a future federal Labor government,”
Sheesh he’s now campaining for the ALP
SKY WILL have a sneak preview of the Newspoll. will report more when I hear it
In his recent Bulletin article.
http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/coalitions_interesting_times.htm
Newspoll have released a poll of 18 marginals.
http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/1121%20Marginals%20Two%2019-11-07.pdf
The secret WorkChoices plan which the Coalition won’t allow to be releashed under Freedom of Information will be the gift that keeps on giving. This is a Network 7 news (#1 in Sydney) report and FOI request.
News Ltd. Chief Exec. Officer, Hartigan, is passionate about FOI, and is one of the leaders of the campaign to reverse the alarming level of secrecy over the past decade, so Skynews ran the Network 7 report untouched as its lead news item the past few hours. It’s also the top headline item on their website:
http://www2.skynews.com.au/
Skynews Agenda Election 07 just started with this as first item of discussion for David Speers and a panel of News Ltd. journos.
114
Great news Mark (from a fellow shiree) – any news on how Greg Holland is going in Hughes?
I’m still going 91 seats to Labor. How it actually plays out, well who the hell knows. I’ve been reading this and Possum’s site and Ozpolitics, when I get a chance, and as far as I can make out, the LNP are right royally screwed. Gawn. Couldn’t happen to a more deserving crew.
ShowsOn-Jackmans conclusion.
The bottom line: yes, there is a trend back to the government, or at least there was early in the campaign, but its too little, too late. Labor is headed for about 54% 2PP nationally. So barring something spectacular this last week (and we will get a couple more national polls before the weekend), or the Coalition pulling off the greatest marginal seat “run-of-the-table” in Australian electoral history, Labor will win, and win comfortably.
Expect the sneak peek of Newspoll to come out around 9:45/9:50 AEDT.
He’s tried everything else!
Only a few atoms left at the bottom of the barrel to scrape away at now…
114 Considering Cook
A very similar seat in the WEST is Canning
Same very high AWU membership that voted very strongly for Lib last time (yes they were polled). In fact just about the whole electorate revolves around the Alcoa mines spread throughout.
In addition, last election the ALP super stuffed the election in this seat by having three candidates over a very short time, a couple barelly credible.
Expect a big swing, but i am starting to believe it will not fall this time. Yes that’s right, it was possible earlier in the campaign.
You can watch Sky election news on this link, currently talking abot workchoices mkii:
http://www.news.com.au/live/popup/
The last time it was leaked on Sky wasn’t it the 53-47 “narrowing”, so I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s good news for the LIbs.
Dennis from gg on now
http://www.news.com.au/live/popup/
WTF is going on with Dennis “Richie Benaud” Shamaham.
Newspoll coming shortly on The Gallery.
In this morning’s column of smh, Ross Gittins totally discredits how JWH has deduced the number of jobs losy abolishing Workchoices would create. His column in the Business Section is titled Econometrics Equals Tricks .
[You can watch Sky election news on this link, currently talking abot workchoices mkii: http://www.news.com.au/live/popup/
Shanahan borrowed one of Richie Benaud’s jackets.
Maxine needs to get around 3000 of Howard’s votes from 2004 – one of my friends told me tonight that her 90 year old mum will vote Labor for the first time – she believes in Maxine – and what this means for Australia!!
And here’s a catchy you tube video about the 3000 votes – what’s your favourite number John?
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=FtptNEXWp3Q
Great to see Mike Bailey also getting more votes!! We all need to stay focused and resolute. Mike won’t be the only one with sunburn after Saturday!!
Only on the wrong side of Williams Road, centaur
Based on a good week for Rudd and but a cannondale of Liberal attack ads – 54/46
Sky panel is completely taking the p#ss out of Toadies Tonite’s interview with Johnnie and Pete. They’re all giggling.
84 LETP – wow, a post of yours I agree with, maybe the new dawn really is upon us?!
I have before now been accused at work (can’t say where) of being an international law trainspotter for insisting on the difference between signature and ratification but it does matter a bit. For those new to the game, it helps to think in 19th century terms, where those signing an agreement were not in instantaneous electronic communication with their central government, hence the need for agreements to be confirmed by ratification.
But it’s still surprising to see well informed people (i.e. most those on this blog), and those “posing as” well informed (in the MSM), missing the distinction, regarding the fairly well publicised Kyoto protocol and the less well publicised fact that the present government of Australia did in fact sign, although it now dismisses said treaty.
Signature does not involve a commitment to be bound by the treaty concerned – but it does involve commitments to (1) consider ratification in good faith and (2) not engage in acts which would defeat the purposes of the treaty, at least pending a decision on ratification. Another little bit of the context which makes Australia’s non-ratification of Kyoto, at least prior to 25 November 2007, Just Too Freaky.
Wow – if it’s this tense for a Newspoll, it’s going to be fun on this site at 5:45pm AEDT on Saturday…
Helen McCabe has the brain the size of a pea, and that’s very disrespectful to peas.
Ready for the Newspoll result!!!!
If it is less than 53/47 I won’t get to sleep tonight!!!
The Rodent stuffs up again in the AFR
Howard’s IR pledge fuels wage worries
http://www.afr.com/home/viewer.aspx?EDP://20071119000019978031&magsection=news&title=Howard%27s+IR+pledge+fuels+wage+worries&source=/_xmlfeeds/home/feed.xml
Richie Shanahan!
Yep, Dennis is channeling Richie Benaud. It’s spooky.
Geez they’re not really being all that positive on the way they’re handling the transition
WTF is happening to Shanahans hair??
Has there been any word from Howard today about the evil union bosses successfully rescuing their evil union minions from the gold mine in Ballarat today? It’s a wonder he didn’t rock up with a cement mixer and start filling the shaft in.
Who else is nervous (apart from me)?
He looks like he’s had a perm.
soooo nervous
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