Laurie Oakes reports on the Channel Nine News that a McNair opinion poll has Joe Hockey and Labor’s Mike Bailey locked on 50-50 in North Sydney.
UPDATE: Sky News reveals the sample was 400.
UPDATE 2: Unsourced talk of primary vote figures of 44 per cent for Hockey and 41 per cent for Bailey.
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260 Comments
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If Labor are getting 53 or 54 in most coalition marginals, that means they are probably on 55 or 56 in their own safe seats and marginals
So I think Newspoll will be 55/45.
Oh thats great news – no changes to work choices is something thats “set in stone” according to JWH. Would that be sandstone John?
Surely if there was a 52-53 they would lead with it?
It was 55/45 last week! Please let it be 55/45 again!
grog- I agree
I can’t hear Dennis for the spinning sound.
WHIZZZZ!!! WHIZZZZ!!!!
Why is it that Shanahan’s commentary technique is suspiciously like free association?
Dennis is sticking with the ‘better economic manager’ thing. Perhaps he should try the number ‘choo’.
You have to worry when Debnam is the most intelligent Liberal…
Bushfire Bill and Snapper. You’ll be pleased to know that my cat actually chundered up a huge furball at the very moment Howard and Costello were on telly together. I had to escort her outside and mop the kitchen floor.
I don’t know which way my cat votes, but given that we’re in the seat of Batman, she probably votes for Catwoman. She wouldn’t vote Green, as she likes to attack wildlife. Perhaps she’d support the local Labor member, Martin Ferguson, because she likes to see a feral gumment.
Hurry up goddamit- got a 7 month baby to feed.
I will go with 55/45 or better for the alp.
Anything less than 53/47 will be a bit of a shock.
i’m still on libs by 5 and three more very long even darker years.
howard once said (i can’t remember where) when he first got elected that he would make changes which would take 50 years of labor government to turn back.
his work of giving the greedy people of this sad little country what they deserve is not complete.
i think the marginal polling is very bad.
it’s that gap between the first dozen and the rest.
labor is not exploiting the bad news enough. they are coasting. they need to go in for the kill. they have sufficient material with the regional pork barrel and now the workchoices foi revelation, but they are scared to look too negative.
it will cost them the election.
Get on with it!
I reckon 54 or 55 to Labor.
Same as the running average.
57/43 is my prediction
Helen McCabe has no idea given she thought the Coalition won week 5 (last) of the campaign. No credibility.
it can’t be good if they haven’t mentioned it. maybe its just the same, so its not really worthy of talking about.
my pred: 53:47
Bah, usual Sky News frippery. Give us the Newspoll and the alleged journos some Xanax please.
turfmeister, I’m with you
55/45 is my estimate
#47 Where was Bill Shorten? Ballarat is just up the road from Maribyrnong (more or less). Apparently the miners talked about “sex” while they were trapped underground.
You would have thought they’d be discussing AWAs, and what to do when the mining boom ends.
Wally @ 121 Sorry don’t have any goss’ on Hughes except to say that Dana Vale is an intellectual peanut and come back Bobby Tickner.
sorry previous comment refers to #147, not #47
I just put a few dollars on Mike Bailey at iasbet.com (Mark Reeds Site) and they’re still offering 6.50. If this polls anywhere near right, the bargain of the year!!
maybe they just have someone monitoring this site and are waiting for the desperation to reach a peak before releasing the number?
Still reckon 56/44
Helen McCabe pro liberal crap what about Lathan?
i’ve got the cream, the white, the off white, the beige……
David Speers is a pathetic apologist for the tories.
Ratsak – LOL
My prediction -55/45
I pray you are right Pi!!!!!
Gotta admit – bad use of the globe by Rudd (I heard it on the radio and it sounded good – on TV not so good)
wish people would stop typing numbers
All Ive got is F#cking Stan Grant in a bad Roger Davidsuit
Newspoll after the break on Sky…
SKY has ads?!?!
Isn’t enough that people cough up for pay TV?? What a waste of money…
oooo – the guy with the lovely eyes… I don’t listen to the message, just get lost in those eyes
they just said “this reports come out when they are struggling to make up a huge margin”- a clue?
T-minus 1 minute and counting…
The cream, the white, the off-white, the ivory, or the beige…
Yes, I know luv…
Not being a ky watcher – do they normally run with good news for the govt up front?
What did they do last time when they had the 53-47?
an ad!! this is worse than Oz Idol!!! arghhh!!!!!!!!!!!! ( and i know i’ll cop it for that reference!)
Hockey 44/41 primaries in Nth Syd
If you want anymore evidence that Labor are going to win this election, this opinion poll would be the one you would cite. Hockey will probably win, but the simple fact that pollsters need to bother sampling this electorate, and its even remotely close means labor might win 2/3 of the seats it needs in NSW alone. After all there are 12 more marginal seats in NSW than North Sydney.
My guess is 57/43
I hate to think what some of you are going to be like on election night!
44 primary to Hockey, 41 to Bailey in McNair poll. 50/50 TPP. Didn’t catch the sample size.
Dario, where did you get that from?
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