Sky News reveals tomorrow’s Newspoll will show Labor leading 54-46; primary vote Labor 46 per cent (down two points), Coalition 41 per cent (up one). Details to follow.
UPDATE: Preliminary article at The Australian.
UPDATE 2: The Australian’s graphic here.
697 Comments
Looks like Edward St John will the kind donor to this site.
the end is nigh …
It’s not getting worse.
Its not getting better
Primary vote fluctuations can prob be explained by increased Greens vote (I presume).
All in all, good news for ALP - status quo is brilliant for the ALP now.
If its 54-46 lads, it won’t be a seat by seat battle
Article up at the Oz:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22787076-601,00.html
But, most importantly, (according to Shamahan) Johnny has kept his lead on economic management.
Is Dennis a political advisor for the Liberals?
46 primary vote - bit low… would’ve liked it to hold at 47.
Love how Shanahan thiing the coalition vote has narrowed 53-55-54. Yes really narrowed.
Anyone for 51-49 on Saturdays Newspoll?
It’s the “Unmoving”.
Yehh! Line honours for the last Monday Newspoll thread before the election
woooooooooooo!
Seriously, as expected.
54-46 same as newspoll breakdowns from previous week, around about 90 seats isn’t it?
Anyone catch Dennis’ look at the end??? He is devestated…. poor didums.
So the tip wasn’t lying. 54 - 46 and a jump in the green primary.
Makes sense, the Green primary has been too low in Newspoll all year. As people near the election, they lock their actual vote.
This does not bode well for Team Rodent.
How do newspoll do their preferences? Is it on the basis of last election, or do they actually ask?
Yep, 54/46 = 90 seats for Labor
More of the same… for one more week.
And then ding-dong the witch is dead.
You would think that these blokes would know something about campaigns. Votes barely change!
Look at the trend all year - ALP 53-55 2PP - it hasn’t moved!
We tories only have to make up 2% and we can conceivably win, i wouldn’t be saying this is a good poll for either side.
on track for the mackerras 89 seat prediction
87-61 on Antony’s computer…..
i’d still prefer to see ACN before i acknowledge that the labor lead wont increase.
This blows out Possum’s prediction, looks like the pace of narrowing means that the Libs will be in sight of victory come 28 April 2008.
Glen, you’ve made up 2 points in the last 5 weeks - what makes you think the Libs can make up another 2 in the last 5 days?
54/46 is Ok at this stage. It is a 7% swing on 2004 on TPP.
18 Michael - its supposed to be based on 2004, but calculations from previous results have shown it fluctuating rather than being constant
I think a lot of labor voters noting that they are winning are tempted to jump to green in the primary..
God, Denis was such a Liberal party hack
crapping on about the economic management mumbo jumbo, he looked so pathetic
Absolutely consistent with the other national polls, and indicative of a comfortable Labor win.
But, of course, people could be lying to the pollsters. John Howard would be hoping that the liars will vote for him.
GP is really Dennis Shenanigan. Did you notice how GP went quiet just when Dennis went on air?
Pi. I hope you are right.
Still on track for my 95 seat prediction…
How much crap can you write about a statistically non-significant change in a sample by 1 or 2%?
Oh go on Glen, say its a good poll for the Tories. 8 points behind, 5 days to go, it doesn’t get any better does it?
# 33 John Hunt Is A Coward Says: November 19th, 2007 at 9:57 pm
That’s it alright. Nowhere to be seen all of a sudden.
Glen Says: “We tories only have to make up 2% and we can conceivably win, i wouldn’t be saying this is a good poll for either side.”
I come to this site for the humour…. oh the humanity!
Glen - you must be out of your mind. This is precisely (given the MOE) where the polls have been for TEN MONTHS. No movement whatsoever. None. Nothing at all. Anything resembling movement has just been statistical noise. The electorate hasn’t been coy, hasn’t been holding their cards close to their chests. They made up their minds a long time ago. And now it’s just the wait until polling day…
29 - Grooski - thanks. So how come a 3 point change in the primary vote doesn’t change the TPP?
Amongst the psephs, is it regarded as more accurate to ask for preferences or rely on the last election?
My concern is that this time a lot of the minor party voters will be protesting against howard but will preference liberal above labor
Whew!
My $200.00 on the Coalition still looks like a winner - consolation money for having these tools in power for three more years.
does anyone know of any election night gatherings happening in Griffith electorate? Feeling comfortable of a victory i think (cripes did i just let myself say that????)
Poor Dennis - was his hair dark at the start of the campaign?
He looked like he’d swallowed a bucket of nails.
It’s Time 36
Dead right!
All of the movements have been merely statistical noise. If it were a machine making stuff at 54 =/- 2mm there would be no need to adjust it - it would be described as being both in statistical control and capable.
Michale- why would you say that pref will go to Libs?
Morgan does one thing right, they ask about preferences and then publish both the “last election” and “stated preference intentions”
Hasn’t bee much difference actually
Does Lillian Frank do Denis’ hair? It was a great bouffant tonight…….
Michael @ 41,
The 3 point movement in primaries was reflected in a 2 point movement in TPP (from 55/45 to 54/46). The difference is probably due to rounding error or an increase in Greens vote.
On the economic management question Rod Cameron nailed it last Friday on Lateline. The question is pointless. The question should be “Will Kevin Rudd stuff up the economy?”
If the overwhelming answer is no, then economic management is largely irrelevant.
The problem last time for Latham was even a few ALP voters (inc me) had a fair idea he was a good chance to walk into cabinet and say “Well guys, I’ve sold the country to China!”
I wouldn’t quite say there’s no narrowing. And I must admit the Coalition has (so far) failed to fall apart in quite the way everyone expected at, say, the time of APEC.
If there is to be a Howard victory, though, the rabbit will need to be a huge one.
BBD - not sure. Just an instinctive feel that people might lodge their protest, but then be driven by fear to preference the govt
They talk about momentum in the last week and its all with Rudd. The lead stories seem to be
1. Debnam saying should have ratified Kyoto
2. Serfchoices FOI coverup
3. Turnbull’s $11M to a mate to make rain
4. Rodent saying Serfchoices will stay forever
5. RPP rorting
It’s all good as long as Peter Garrett shuts up!
This secret WorkChoices plan is going to hound Howard for his final days. He will get zero traction on anything till polling day. What a shame.
OK what does the message mean?
The 1300(odd) people sampled, giving a TPP result of 54-46, can be shown to demonstrate a national distribution of 51.3 to 56.7 ALP TPP in 95% of samples conducted.
What that means is that there is a chance of Labors national aggregated TPP vote being 51.3 That is not enough to secure victory.
I hear a word of hubris and the Can ‘o’ whupass will be opened.
So we have a 53/47 newspoll in the marginals and 54/46 overall - might be a few holes in the firewall
If History is a guide then next Saturday the ALP will come in with between 54.5-55.1 therefore the ALP should win between 85-95 seats.
My prediction ALP 54.6 - Lib/Nats 45.4
Could the Oz Newspoll article pump up the Tories anymore? Labors primary lowset since August, Tories primary near the high watermark, Howard faces a formidable challenge. Blah, blah, blah Crikey-how to polish a turd. (I wouldnt write Sri Lanka off just yet either).
WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN WHEN THE “SCARY UNION BOSSEZ” ADS HAVE TO STOP TOMORROW NIGHT???
P.S.
BOOOO!!!!
Authorised by B Loughnane, Liberal Party Canberra
Five more sleeps, five more sleeps, five more sleeps…..
Come on Kevvie……..
I was kinda hoping for a 59-41, but beggars can’t be choosers.
Why haven’t we had rogue poll in the Libs favour? We’ve had a 58-42 and a 59-41, but no 51-49 or 50-50
Swing Lowe - ta - for some reason I thought the last results was 54-46 also
Diogenes you left out the $200m spent on govt advertising… $1 mill per day!
Yup, they’r gawn, stuffed, not to be the next gov’t., individually and collectively buggered and gone to meet the 75 raisins in the sky.
I see Andrew is in from Upside-Downy-Down land…
Albert - the newspoll marginal poll was 54-46 as well
You are forgetting the 60 or so polls previous. You cannot take a single poll in isolation.
Can I say thanks to all the bludgers who gave that fantastic running commentary on the announcement of the Newspoll result some few minutes ago.
I tuned in for the delayed telecast and read all your comments about 15 minutes after the fact (not realising William had posted the final result in the meantime).
Particularly like the crazed frenetic posting towards the end and Swing Lowe who posted a “T-1 minute” reminder near the finish line.
In the end, an unspectacular finish, but it’s about the journey not the destination.
Love your work.
When do the political ads have to stop?
TC @ 57,
Actually I wouldn’t write off SL. Sangakkara’s an absolute champion.
Hard to really see the Libs doing it, though. If I had to guess I’d put the eventual Labor TPP between 53 and 54. Which will be enough.
Swing Lowe why the ‘narrowing’ of course lol!
2% is possible and let’s not forget that Newspoll had on the last day 50-50 and we romped home 53-47, if it goes our way we could win if that 3% goes your way we’re done and dusted.
At least it’s not 57-43 we aren’t screwed we can win but we’re behind.
Sets up the 24th as a squeaker and if Rudd doesn’t win the marginals campaign, he despite winning the 2PP may not get enough seats. Rather like Gore winning the vote but not the Electoral College. Rudd if he loses will be so pissed off it will be hilarious to watch him if we tories get out of jail
.
Glad we have the Newspoll result. Now I can go to bed, as I have to start work early.
What has this website done to my life, that I have to stay up late just to find out an opinion poll result??
“i wouldn’t be saying this is a good poll for either side.”
Except that one side has 1 million more votes.
Grooski,
You should also note that there is a 68% chance that the true sample is between 52.65 and 55.35. So it’s more likely to be in the net positive position for Labor than not…
you’ve made up 2 points in the last 5 weeks - what makes you think the Libs can make up another 2 in the last 5 days?
The Budget bounce is due any day now…
Well this makes perfect sense doesn’t it? The past few days have been good for Labor, bad for the Coalition and yet it’s Labor who goes down in Primary Vote, 2PP and Preferred PM. Does this make sense to anyone? Labor’s vote should have increased, not decreased. Did you see the Sky News Election Agenda pundits? Howard can still win this, too close to call. Labor has 46% primary vote - and that’s bad for Labor considering it’s usually 48%. But it’s alot better than 41% you chumps. They were all talking up Howard and Costello’s Today Tonight love-in and how it’s a fairly good poll for the Govt. Apparently Dennis Shanahan has been giving them his pills. Disappointed in Labor’s primary vote but 54% 2PP - better than 46% ain’t it?.
Yeah, I was wondering that myself yesterday. I guess it’s because the ‘real’ number has probably been floating around 55-56, and we’ve only seen 53’s as the lower rougues.
This is a good result for the Coalition. At this stage of the cycle you want to be the underdog and had their poll increased, it would have been peaking too early.
A little like premature ej…you know.
If interest rate had gone down, it would also have gazumped the underdog narrative. So all in all everything is on track for a coalition victory according to the great MASTER PLAN.
No no, not from Upside-Downy-Down land at all. From Grayndler, actually.
I wish that Labor would win the election.
But, they won’t. They’ll make up ground and be within striking distance for next time.
Grooski @ 54
How is that even possible? We’re not talking about one poll. We’re talking about nearly EVERY SINGLE POLL from the last TEN MONTHS. This isn’t about the MOE anymore. We have more than enough soundings - far, far more - to be able to have an accurate read of the electorate. It isn’t even remotely possible that it’ll be 51-point-anything. No other recent poll comes close to suggesting that.
Damn, I wanted at the very least 55/45. Have to wait for ACN now.
so this is consistent with Jackman’s pooling forecast
If the Greens primary is up, that’ll be better than 54-46. Newspoll uses aggregate prefs from the minor parties for the last election, so they always give Labor 61% of minor parties’ votes. However, if the Greens are up, Labor’s 2PP will be better than Newspoll’s estimate.
Don’t forget that this was taken before Rove!
LOL, it’s all over for Howard. Crushing morale result for lib campaign workers. Only possible movement from here is towards the ALP as the libs implode with recriminations and cat fighting over the remainder of the week.
Does me just fine, 54/46 will provide the ALP with the 85 seats I’ve predicted and enable me to drink my full celebratory allocation Sat night.
amen to that Antonio.
I went grocery shopping tonight at 7:40pm (had to wait to first see if anything was on the 7:30 Report), and while waiting in the queue I wondered how could all these people not be freaking out about the newspoll comming out tonight.
And then I remembered. They have a life.
Rudd is already on about 60 / 40 for the 18 - 34 age group. I can’t see how it could go any higher.
Despite what the polls say Labor supporters should not be complacent. The PM is evil and of course evil is powerful. He may yet pull some wizardry from his book of black spells.
But then again maybe not…………..
Yes, it’s called a random sample. Trying to extrapolate a week’s political happenings to a random poll of 1000 or so people that week is about as silly as playing golf in a lightning storm.
Dyno-Im half serious if Kumar and Sanath get going and MacGill bowls more pies like he did today it could get very very close.260 off 90 overs very gettable.Then again one of those guys go early and its all over. Logic tells me the Tories cant win but Im still traumatised by 1998 although theres no 1 Nation this time.
I will stick with my prediction of 4 weeks ago: Labor 89 (TPP 53.9%). Interestingly Possum has also predicted Labor 89. SA will provide two additional highly talented young females to Canberra- that will raise both the average IQ and beauty in ACT.
bryce 71
Good point.
In elections, it always a lot more helpful if about 1 million more people vote for your party than the other mob.
3 iron found; Rain Co leapfrogs EB in Wentworth; TT hubris ‘I will decide’…farce on. Sham-I-am farred on sky…oh dear oh dear. Ok to laugh.
Glen @ 67,
One thing I forgot to mention was that 3 weeks ago, the Newspoll was also 54/46. So effectively, the Libs campaign has flatlined after the “Narrowing” of 2 points in the first 2 weeks. Just makes the Libs’ job that much harder (particularly after the ad blackout on Wednesday).
Told ya yesterday folks
Anybody wanna know some interesting Coalition internal polling?
Chris in London @ 47 - Where did you see Dennis on TV? Can I access it here too?
Damn is that right Bryce @ 71? Only a 1 million vote lead?
I’m sure Glen will tell us how the Libs will win those back in four days (and forget to mention how they might lose 500,000 more)
Sure. Why not?
Yes, Toby, we would…
yes please Toby
Burgey #44
Wrong!
He looked like he had just passed them.
bring it on toby!
Go Ruddstar! 54-46 is a great result and this Saturday I think Labor will do considerably better than that in reality.
These are exactly the kind of numbers I was hoping for. If the Labor 2PP was any higher, the talk of a Coalition wipe out might result in people trying to balance things out by voting against Labor. And if it was lower than 53, then Labor might start losing the all-important “win expectations”.
For me, this poll sits in just the right place. And with momentum currently going Labor’s way, it will be difficult for Howard to claw back much support in the dying days of this campaign.
The only way Howard can win from here is remind voters that if the Coalition is returned WorkChoices will never be able to be removed. Then it’s curtains for Labor!
MUHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Please, Toby, please….God i’m a saddo….hello, everyone!
Ok, time for my own prediction: 84 seats, a swing of 6.3% according to Antony’s calculator. And Bennelong, Wentworth both going down.
Grooski 54- look at your figures. There is a 2.5% chance (1 in 40) that Rodent will get 51.7%. So you’re betting on a 40 to 1 chance and saying its going to win. I like that logic!
True but still id rather be at 54-46 than 57-43 and you’d rather be at 57-43 than 54-46.
Rudd needs at least 53-47 to win, if it goes below that figure it’s a toss up. But i hardly think you would be happy with this poll considering you’d rather the election result over now. Still it’s not good for the tories but it could be worse, for Labor they’ve had a good week and gone down, maybe the undecideds are starting to tune into Team Howie.
Shows on, I agree, but I think the Rove thing goes beyond the young vote. People have been curious about Rudd and I think him appearing quite human on Rove will remove some of the concerns they had about him being fake. They’ll still see him as being a little bit fake, but not in a bad way. The headlines today following Rove won’t hurt either.
Hey Toby, seriously don’t tease us like that
Now I have keep on the site…..
Seems to me that 54 is the new “floor” for the ALP vote. A few months ago it was more like 56-57. Since then we appear to have dropped 2-3% of ALP flirters, but there’s a solid 54% or so locked in. I can’t see the ALP getting any less than 52% on Saturday, and most likely somewhere in the range 53-54.
Toby?
Is this the narrowing? If Labor gets more than 52% I’ll shout the bar. Rudd by 4 seats?
Glen,
How did 53/47 suddenly become the winning figure? First, Labor needed to get 51% of the vote to win. Then it became 52%. Suddenly, with 5 days to go, you’re claiming it’s 53%. May I remind you that JWH did NOT get 53% of the vote in 2004!
As they say in the Castle, “tell him he’s dreamin…”
This isn’t the only poll this week; we also have a Morgan ph poll that had it at 55.5-44.5 Labor, so that gives verification. There will be no more national polls until the last two days of the election, when all 4 pollsters will release final polls.
Nothing new. The polls have been at this level for 5 weeks, with the exception of the odd 58:42 survey. How on earth Glen and his mates can get excited and confidently predict a Howard victory from this is beyond me, but stranger things have happened, I guess.
The Liberal advertising is awful! I swear I’ve seen that Union bosses ad 30 times tonight! Bring on Wednesday and the advertising blackout, at least on TV.
The polls are so consistent and so much in agreement (except Morgan) that I think you can forget about the MOE considerations. I don’t think the “real underlying” survey result is anywhere near as low as, say, 51% for Labor.
Also don’t see any Liberal “rabbits” having a significant impact in the last week. And presumably Rudd won’t come out and announce that he’s going to increase GST to 15%, or that he and Swan have been secret lovers since high school (not that there’s anything …)
There could (I assume) be a modest effect due to people who will actually vote for Howard, but find the idea so uncool that they can’t acknowledge it to themselves or to a pollster. But based on previous elections this couldn’t be more than 1% at the absolute most, could it?
Toby??????????
46/41 and 13% Others.
7%? Greens @ 75% - 5.25%
6%? Others @ 60% - 3.6%
This would be much closer 55/45
No more Monday newspolls between now and the real thing people… all this bickering about what it means will cease. How exciting!!
No wonder Howard is getting hit in the polls when the only questions to him put during his media conference were about divisions in the Liberals and Kyoto and the like nothing positive, meanwhile Rudd get’s a dorothy dixer about political spin doctors.
The media are a disgrace, they’ll be a prime culprit for electing Rudd if it happens on Saturday.
the workchoices mark 2 story will do em in. what about turnbull giving $10 mill to a guy who can make it rain by ionising water particles… just happens someone in the recipient company does campaign fund raising for him. all signed off after caretaker mode had come into play. lots of questions to answer there.
115
SirEggo Says:
November 19th, 2007 at 10:16 pm
Toby??????????
Please don’t bite at these things… it only encourages them
Ashley @ 108 - I reckon it all depends on how they’re counting the flow of preferences. It seems clear that the Greens vote is going to be higher this year - particular in some interesting marginal electorates - and I’m getting the feeling that the TPP vote is actually 55-56. I reckon this is why one of Rudd’s big statements - repeated at every opportunity over the last several days - is that he’ll sign Kyoto as soon as elected. He’s sewing up Greens preferences…
TOBY!!!!!!!!!!!!
Not that I’m desparate or anything, LOL
Luke: 46% primary?
Bad for the ALP?? Please, it’s a guarranteed win.
I admit 47% would be better (duh). But I’ll bet ALP down 2; Greens up 1.
I’ll take that.
At the last election the same Newspoll was 50.5 for the Coalition and 49.5 for Labor.
Final reasult - 52.8 coalition 47.2 Labor.
Glen: “The media are a disgrace, they’ll be a prime culprit for electing Rudd if it happens on Saturday.”
Yeah, that’s right Glen, they’ve been against Howard all these past 11 years, haven’t they?
OK, I’ll stop biting
Wish he didn’t do that…….
Do you guys know what this poll (or any other for that matter) are telling you? Simply that in 19 out of EVERY 20 cases of the poll done on the same day with the same sample, it shows the national distribution of ALP TPP currently between 51.3 and 56.7. Fact. No trend line analysis, no regression analysis.
Yes, I am aware that trends over the month have shown consistently high Labor TPP and that Labor will likely win by a 8-10 majority come Saturday. It is, however, not in the realms of impossibility also that a hung parliament ensues on Sat/Sun
I am only stating this to cut down on the inane “game over” drivel that is being sprouted by the people on the blog. I for one, believe it will be close.
Grog - yep too many polls at the moment.
54/46 in the marginals 54/46 overall - I’m starting to feel a bit more hopefull that Rudd will snag a few in Victoria.
Dear Toby this time on Saturday I will have all the Liberal and Labor polling I would ever want!!
VBotW - here you go unfortunately it’s an hour long, and I wouldn’t advise looking at Denis, he’s looking like the binge-eating love-child of Ritchie Benaud and Lillian Frank….. it was playing on loop when I looked last - but Newpoll result is at the end of the hour
http://www.news.com.au/live/popup/
Anyone seen a Lateline promo? Might be a meltdown chance, say if Andrew and Gerard are on?
If it had been 52-48 or 53-47 it would could be perceived as a comeback or a narrowing to the average joe, but 54 from Newspoll sounds rock solid and puts it out of reach, it starts to approach a tipping point where people start to jump ship.
I love it when Glen calls me and my fellow journalistic fellow-travellers ‘a disgrace’. Makes me feel all gooey inside.
Glen will love reading this article from a Human Resources website.
It explains some of the larger swings- there is a campaign like this in North Sydney due to Joes Portfollio too.
http://www.workplaceexpress.com.au/news_selected.php?act=2&selkey=35343&hlc=2&hlw=
I think this is simply no change - the TPP is 54+
Once again a balanced analysis by people from both sides of the political spectrum.
Saturday can’t come soon enough. I miss discussion.
Will Newspoll do a poll next Monday?
Poor Dennis - last wekk when labor went up to 55, it was within the MOE and not significant (true). Now they’ve gone to 54 and the Coalition is definately closing the gap.
I’m sure there’s some logic there somewhere. I just can’t find it, that’s all.
The best part about this poll is it’s a non-story. Which means the papers can focus on:
The climate change report,
The secret Work Choices changes
Howard saying you’ll be stuck with work choices
Abbott, Costello and Turnbull hating each other
and
the exceeding monotonous likelihood that the ALP will win so lets look for more stories about the Libs at War.
Dear Bludgers, the coalitions campaign has possibly been the worst I have ever seen in my 58 years of observing these things. Please see Possums site for relevant analysis, before going all over the place in terms of your response. Despite some out there possibilities posed by TLet there Etc., a TPP of 54%, is going to deliver victory to Labor, barring some very unusual electoral behaviour.
137 Burgey - post of the night! rotflmao
Tony’s on LL with Bob Brown to discuss Greens polling.
Glen: “Rudd needs at least 53-47 to win, if it goes below that figure it’s a toss up.”
Where did you get this from? You’re just making it up as you go along.
Even according to Antony Green’s calculator, 51.6% takes Labor over the line. 53, and Labor’s got 82 seats.
As they say in The Castle: “Get your hand off it.”
I never said we were a lock to win this election based on being 8 points behind, all i am saying is that it is possible for the tories to win, it mightn’t be likely but it is possible.
Or have you considered that Deputy Dawg could be PM in less than a weeks time if Howie loses Bennelong and the tories scrape home?
As I have consistently said:
1) Coalition victory with 150 seat total majority
2) Coalition victory with 1 seat majority
And now for a new one:
1) Kevin Rudd victory with a 1 seat majority, sacked within 12 months.
“GENERAL WENCK - WHY HAVE YOU FAILED UUUUUUUUUUUUUUSSSS!!!”
127 Grooski-so there’s a 97.5% chance Labor will poll 51.7% or more and therefore win, based on one poll. Your point being?
53% is close to a record 2PP for the ALP, yet Glen says that is what they need to win. Sheesh…
So this explain the small swing back to Coalition since Sunday.
Some punters indeed have forehand information from this poll.
If only Howard can move forth the election 6-9 months…
But it’s too late now, in exactly 5 days time, Labor will celebrate their victory.
No hubris, just humble prediction
Without a vision for the future.
Without credibility.
Without any kind of ethics or integrity.
How could the Libs run a strong campaign?
OK, the tribe has spoken
Coalition internal polling has Labor’s Mia Handshin now up to 50-50, deadlocked with Christopher Pyne in the seat of Sturt (SA). A swing of 6-7% is expected in Boothby (SA), which would see Labor’s Nicole Cornes defeat long-serving Liberal Andrew Southcott. People in SA will notice an increasing number of Liberal ads for both Pyne and Southcott in the next two days.
However, in a slight positive for the Coalition, the seat of Kingston (SA) looks to be closer than many predict. Internal polling suggests a 52-48 lead for Labor. Howard’s announcement today of a 24-hour children’s hospital to be set up in Adelaide’s south is on the back of these figures.
Glen,
I grant you that the Coalition have a chance of winning this election - a 25% chance, given the current state of the betting markets (expect that to change as they process the results of this poll).
Marktwain can you fill me in on anything important that is mentioned. hour behind up here in griffith.
If the Libs do win, the polling companies are all finished. Who would buy their product, in that case?
No, Glen is simply saying the Liberals can crawl back a few more points they can sneak home this may well be true but extremely unlikely
When does the TV advertising black-out start?
Jackman 54% and Possums 55% both half right - the result is going to be close to 54.5% which is about what it is now but, with a bullet I would imagine given the latest problems for Howard.
Seats
ALP 91
LNP 57
The Libs must be praying for Lathan to take over from Rudd for the last few days!
Toby- ALP candidate in Kingston is regarded as Labors weakest in this election.
Will do, middle man. (But surely you have something better to do than us giving you the run down on what’s on the telly?)
Wednesday for the blackout?
Watching LL - Geez how many freekicks can Rudd get?? If the ALP can’t beat this bunch of incompetents… my God!
Toby: after watching 7.30 Report tonight, I’ve got to say I’m impressed with Nicole Cornes, in comparison to that wanker Southcott! Go Nicole!
Mia Handsin looks like a potential good MP too.
No 153
I expect Newspoll to be 52-48 on election day, which can still mean a Coalition victory.
People must remember that the popular vote can still be lost, even though the election is won. Must we resurrect 1998?
Report on Bennelong now on.
Chris @ 130. You’re a genius - many thanks. (I didn’t even know about this Sky site, so now I can set it up on the other laptop and switch between ABC and the Great Satan throughout the Oz night/our morning.)
And I shall look out for Denise’s glorious barnet with great interest and just a little spite.
are you proud of your party winning with 49% Glen?
I wouldn’t be shocked if the Liberals lost a Stuart or Boothbsy and hung onto a Kingston
As I ve already said earlier on this thread GP theres no One Nation to save your butt this time.
Marktwain. ahhhh…. ummmm.. eeeerrrrr yeah of course i do… hahha dont be silly…..
Grooski,
If this poll was in complete isolation I’d agree with your range. However its the lastest in a very long line of polls that have all put the ALP TPP north of 53.
Also there is the quailitative aspect - compared to Lathem, Rudd has a solid campain whilst the Libs have been cashed-up but all over the place (I loved the comment today on the Libs campain - “if they had a duck in would drown”)
All up I think we can be a little more confident the ALP will weight in on Staturday in the 53 to 55 zone.
Having said that, its still going to be a looong week.
“Children in Bennelong may grow up hating balloons”. Class.
No 166
Winning is winning Big Blind Dave.
There’s definitely a sense of desparation from the Liberals here in Sturt , so the internal polling of 50/50 wouldn’t be a surprise.
The last couple of weeks I’ve been getting something in the post from them nearly every second day, often a personally addessed letter.
Speaking with women who received the personally addressed letter from The Minister for Ageing’s wife, it has definitely gone down like a lead balloon.
Michael: the advertising blackout begins on Wednesday night, but only for TV, the internet ads can keep running right up to Saturday.
Care for some new betting odds?
PAGE
ALP 1.60
NATIONALS 2.20
“I never said we were a lock to win this election based on being 8 points behind, all i am saying is that it is possible for the tories to win, it mightn’t be likely but it is possible.”
Glen, you are right. It is possible. There are still 5 days to go. Who knows what will happen?
But the chances have now become VERY low.
Your side has performed very badly this election. Their campaign has been an awful mess. I am actually surprised that the Labor vote hasn’t increased markedly because of it, but I guess it means that large numbers of voters have pretty much tuned out. That is good and bad for your side. Bad, because it makes it even harder for Howard’s scare campaign to cut through, which means he will have to scream even louder. And good, because it might mean that the Coalition vote won’t completely collapse.
Too many people focus on individual polls. Look at the polls since the election was called in mid October. Labor has gone down slightly in primary vote, 2PP and preferred PM polling but they’re still polling really well. I think we’re all just afraid Labor will get thrashed in the final dash (ie the last 24-48 hours). We have been spoiled this year with some bloody good polls haven’t we?
Problem is the public like to flirt with Labor but not marry them.
A TPP lead of 52/48 for Labor on election day that translates into a Coalition win would be a statistical freak. The swings would have to be precisely matched to the current margins in lots of Lib seats in order to pull it off. After all, that would be a 4.7% swing to Labor on TPP…
don’t get me wrong, I hope labor get enough seats to get over the line in 5 days. but when people say it’ll be tight there is merit IMO. When you look at all the electorates and their margins, the libs sit on a lot of fat margins 10% + esp in Qld. so even if there are big swings against them in these seats they still may not fall this time round. even though the wheels have fallen off team rodent long ago, talk of annihilation at this point is premature, the real annihilation will come after 3 years of rudd relatively unscathed, and 3 years of libs shit fighting between themselves in opposition.
anyone know whos on LL tonight?
Big Blind Dave
I’m aware of that, just going by what my mail is. Why would Howard pick Kingston, of all of the marginals, to plonk a child hospital if there wasn’t a chance of them winning it? I’m not saying I think they will win it, but it’s interesting.
Yeah OK GP, lets talk about how the ALP got 51% of the vote and picked up 18 seats.
We could also talk about 1990 where the ALP got 49.8% of the vote and won with a healthy majority.
Chinese in Bennelong wants change - on LL
For goodness sakes, if I see one more “53% means labor WILL win 82 seats” rubbish I start waxing my own arse.
Name me, and provide evidence for, the 22 seats that Labor WILL win. If you cannot, it is conjecture and can be officially labelled biased opinion. I myself, can label 12 as falling, with possibility of 24 more being in play.
This site has been about Psephology - the study of statistics applied to polls, not political rhetoric bandied about by fan-boys.
GP yes lets do so:
In 98 - ALP primary 40%
2PP - 50.98 (not 52)
And by the way One nation? - 8%!!!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_federal_election%2C_1998
If anyone is intersted, the details of last week’s neilson are (finally) up on thier website.
I’m with my brothers who spoke up earlier, next week, I’ll get my life back in order and stop watching this site
No 182
The Coalition will win 150 seats.
Indians in Bennelong upset re Haneef case - on LL
Those so called commentators on Skynews are clown. If the poll is reversed 54 Libs 46 Labor, they would have buried Labor 10ft deep. They just cannot bring themselves to face reality. They are just clinging to their own deception.
LL reporter is staing that many Chinese people in Bennelong are mainland born, rather than from Hong Kong and therefore a different demographic. Also of note is the Indian pop, who don’t like the treatment of Mohammed Haneef. Yet another point, older Chinese are keen on economic stability, supposedly provided by Howard.
Oh sweet. You have to be delighted with that if you are on the side of goodness and light (which for the record is whatever side I’m on at the time).
Fantastic that the evil that will be workchoices MKII ++ has been highlighted today, even better that it hasn’t been released by the stupid government because speculation about how evil the Govt is, is much much better than debate about whether x idea would increase productivity or reduce inflation.
The Govt is in a lose lose now can’t release the details but the Labor Party claim that they WANT to do much worse has been confirmed and the question is if they are given the power will they or not … what would be your bet? Also confirms the Labor Party claims this is fabulous.
*Does a happy happy dance*
For the record I liking possums landslide much more than many posters here who have weak tepid just fall over the line predictions … possums are much more sound.
Finally journalists are a pathetic joke, they have given Howard an outrageously easy time over 11 years - sorry MarkTwain but really the MSM would be too scared to say today is Monday if the PM lied and said it was Tuesday. And if Labor said today was Monday the clowns would run Howard’s denial and claim it is Tuesday at the top of the news, give him 30 seconds saying how stupid labor is and how clear it is to everyone it is Tuesday, because he says so and the push Rudd’s claim it was Monday to a laugh at the bottom of the sorry.
182
I am a member of the fan-boys union and i can tell you something
we’re coming back, we’re coming back
WENTWORTH
TURNBALL 1.60
NEWHOUSE 2.20
Looks like George has been the big mover today, presumably on the back of that poll in the Fairfax papers.
Typical Chinese business people - some voting for Howard!
Big Blind Dave Says: “are you proud of your party winning with 49% Glen?”
Come on BBD, that’s known as D-I-M-O-W-C-R-A-S-I for the Liberals, don’tcha know?
grooski. well put.
marktwain. whats the bennelong story about?
Antony Green is on.
Also, GP, the 1998 2PP for the ALP was probably overstated because of Pauline Hansons rather strange way of allocating preferences (away from sitting members). In 1998 the ALP also only got 40% of the primary and I haven’t seen a poll in the last 12 months suggesting Labor will get anything less than about 45%.
Antony Green on LL
Enormous swing of almost 7%, says Antony. “Certainly looks like people have made up their minds, to change govt. Very consistent poll.”
Antony Green: Most stable opinion polls I can remember
Get off it Glen, if all the lib bogey man fear/smear saturation has delivered you zilch since the 54/46 of the 2nd week what on earth is going to produce an ALP free-fall in the next 5 days?
It’s over and you know it else you wouldn’t be crying about how poorly the media has treated you. They haven’t but you feel that way because it’s all going south on you. The danger for your team is that they’re having the same disconsolate feelings and will similarly lash out and implode
Geez 182 ‘officially labelled biased opinion’. What are you on about it? Officially labelled by who? You? Dont need to wax your arse cos youre speaking thru it.
Kingston is a bit tricky, especially give then Family Fraud factor. There’s a lot of pentecostals out that way & my understanding is that they are “encouraged” to vote for FF.
Grooski,
I can’t give you 22 definite Labor wins, but I can give you a very probable 16:
NSW
Page
Lindsay
Parramatta
Eden-Monaro
Dobell
QLD
Bonner
Moreton
Herbert
Blair
SA
Kingston
Wakefield
Makin
TAS
Bass
Braddon
NT
Solomon
WA
Hasluck
sorry updates have been provided. will stop nagging.
If you look at the odds at Centrebet for individual seats and went by that, it looks like 20 seats changing. That’s not including Bennelong and Wentworth. And that’s taking punting more seriously than Newspoll.
Hmm. How can I rephrase that?
What i love is that it ios actually the Libs who have made this a referendum on workchoices and unions role in politics and the workplace.
A mate who is a lefty ALP staffer said “it is not that’s not true”, but a Lib can’t deny that that is their message now can they?
Kingston mightn’t be a sure thing for Labor: perhaps explains why Rudd has been there a few times recently.
antony green just calls as he sees it. best analyst around.
Antony is feeling the strain a bit.
Yep, it will be two seats either way.
Marktwain Says: “Antony is feeling the strain a bit.”
yeah, the strain of repeating himself, over and over and over….
I’m so glad I don’t have Pay TV, so I can avoid SKY, that bastion of Howard propoganda, starring David Spears.
Glen’s efforts tonight in claiming 54:46 as a positive for those on the 46 side of the scoreboard are at their least convincing ever - but still far more worthy of respect than whatever the hell a “Generic Person” is. My bet is that this moniker will become a new term for spambot; one can only admire William’s robust commitment to free speech in continuing to permit posts from the driveller in question.
antony is feeling the strain of Janet A lurking around his office all the time.
Toby-I’m a doctor living in SA and I haven’t heard a thing about a new childrens hospital in the south. Wasnt on the news or on the Tiser website. What’s the reference?
Oh well. The lead up to this was fun. An anti-climactical result - but that’s all I wanted really!
Sleep well tragics!
Basically, Antony told it as he saw it. While the Green vote will be important in Wentworth, it won’t be in the outer suburban marginal seats. He fundamentally said that we should trust the polls because they have been so consistent. He’s right.
Rudd and Therese are doing Kerrie Anne’s show tomorrow: no doubt he’ll again be accused of doing only light interviews.
Bob Brown on now
HH @ 206,
I don’t intend to remove Kingston from my “very probable” list until I see external polling showing this. Actually, wasn’t there an Advertiser poll in Kingston? Can anyone remember what the results were?
Bob Brown is on and Tony has asked him a curler about the IPCC report and the importance of India and China. Was Howard correct that they were more important than the Kyoto Protocol.
Brown answers correctly.
This poll would be at least 54.5% Even the last 53% was 53%+
and the last 55% was 55%+ looking at the likely preference flows.
The LNP is dead, regardless of identifying which seats; 53%+ TPP would be a clear victory.
AND as Possums has already studied the bigger swings are taking place in LNP marginals and, then LNP safe seats it is not being wasted so much in Labor seats.
David Spears is not too bad, sometimes it’s weird, he’ll try and make Howard look good, other times he’ll try and make the government look as bad as possible.
He probably is a Liberal voter, but i find him quite balanced most of the time
Marktwain. He’s a good man.
(and just on your moniker… i assume you chose it for twains newspaper contributions as well as his novels…)
I liked what I saw of Nicole Cornes on the 7.30 Report tonight! If I was in Boothby, I’d have no hesitation in voting for her.
Meanwhile in the NT.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/19/2095243.htm?section=justin
Glen reckons that IF it narrows another 2% AND the Labor vote is overwhelmingly in safe Labor seats then the Coalition MIGHT win. As comrade Trotsky was fond of saying: “If it wasn’t for the snow and the police you could walk naked in Moscow in the wintertime.”
It is now crystal clear:
1. If the TPP is 51/49 or 50/50 then marginal polling is important.
2. If TPP is 52+, then forget about the marginal polling, just focus on the national polling
Howard Hater 224
I went to front her (Nicole Cornes)in person at a street corner meeting yesterday. I was convinced by her.
219
That Newspoll in marginals had a higher SA result for ALp than the Galaxy poll for marginals and the big difference between the two???
Newspoll included Kingston and Galaxy didn’t.
Newspoll was more favourable for ALP. That kind of makes it a good Kingston Poll doesn’t it?
Jasmine #189, I don’t take anyone who uses the acronym ‘MSM’ seriously. Feel free to have a go at me but I won’t bother replying.
Grooski. I don’t know whether anyone has said 53% means Labor will definitely win 22 seats. Earlier, in response to some of the usual addle-pated nonsense from Glen, I noted that Antony Green’s calculator indicates that 53% will deliver Labor 22 seats. His is a rough guide, and obviously the swing will not be uniform. Nevertheless, his calculator names the 22 seats you requested.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/
As for arsewaxing, might I recommend the unfortunately named ‘Nads’?
Good luck.
Bob brings up the moral issue of the environment, and says the Greens are happy to work with Labor. Onya Bob.
VBotW don’t thanks me - someone else posted the link - I didn’t know it existed!!
Poor Antony was having a hard time finding suitably diplomatic answers. He did well
I saw a Greens internet ad on a newstory link posted earlier in this stream…
“Howard is gone, but who will keep Rudd honest? we will vote green etc”
Bob is on the Bandwagon
Question about MOE. Stats for me was years ago.
If we have an MOE of say, 3% at a 95% confidence interval for a “quoted result” of 55%.
That means the POSSIBLE “real” result is anywhere between 53% and and 58%.
But the possibilities are distributed around the “quoted result” on a normal distribution or bell curve???
So, realistically, in this example, the chances of the “real” result being outside the range of say 53.5% and 56.5% are pretty small??
BK: I’ve seen male politicians who are far worse at putting 2 words together.
Nicole has got 2 things going for her: name recognition, and a genuine ability to connect with ordinary people. And, she’s good looking too, which should help with the male vote.
Middle man, Mark Twain lost all of his money on a publishing venture and had to come out to Australia to earn some spare cash. Therefore, a true journo!
Bob is solid. And quite amusing on Rove last night too. Those greenies know how to have a good time dont they?
Imacca,
There’s a 16% chance that the “real” result of the poll is less than 52.65%.
Brown is getting all fired up on LL.
There is nothing preventing me from whipping out my camera and taking a photo of my ballot is there?
middle man @ 239 - It’s all the drugs the Greens take.
I’ll love Bob even more if he helps us get rid of this Howard government.
Marktwain, he was a seriously interesting fella.
Driving home from work today (from the Western Suburbs of Brisbane), I get the impression that Ryan is still very much in play. I saw Michael Johnson and a bunch of Young Libs on the streetside with his billboards, waving to passing motorists. Bloody distracting if you ask me. I saw Labor out there too, but no waving to passers by, just standing next to billboards of Rudd and Ross Daniels (ALP candidate). Will be interesting if the local backlash against Johnson is enough to see him lose office. The punter’s don’t seem think so.
I’d like to start a thread of discussion.
Rather than discussing the remote possibility of the Liberals winning I’d like to see plausible and reasonable arguments why the polls could be wrong in the *other* direction.
And I’ll add a couple of points. Remember the last few percent going 2 to 1 in the favor of the direction of the overall swing?
What about the polls this time being wrong footed by cultural change. Ok so they are weighted and all, but have they still missed out on younger voters who are notoriously hard to find. What about the effect of the internet?
Frankly a real final result of 56/44 wouldn’t suprise me (that much).
-moo
here is the link to the story that had a greens add- just keep refreshing until you see the greens ad come up, it will only take a sec or two.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/NRMA-welcomes-Labors-2b-roads-pledge/2007/11/19/1195321694034.html
Bob Brown upholds the right of the Senate not to accept the mandate of the Lower House. “If we have the balance of power in the Senate, we’ll use it responsibly.” TJ: will you block legislation? “Probably won’t have the power”, says Bob.
Aw, Sky ain’t so bad. I quite like David.
This’ll be my first Fed election with Pay TV, and with Channel 7 joining in, I’m spoilt for choice when it comes to coverage (serious and not so serious)!
I’m loving how everyone assumes Green 1st preferences will automatically flow to Labor. More than likely, particularly in Wentworth and North Sydney, they’re “protest votes” to “send a message”. Greens 1, Libs 2.
Antony Green! You should know better!
That said, I think Labor has a better chance of winning Bennelong than the elction, sadly.
Marko. I’ve spent plenty of time surfing around the northern rivers area of NSW. I know exactly why they have so much fun.
205 BBD - referendum on unions - Dave its a case of whether you get shot by the Liberals or starved by Labor. There is nothing for unions to celebrate in this election either way.
Jasmine Anadyr - so finally the meglomania manifests itself.
Looks bad for the Libs, yes it is either going to be 54-46 (comfortable Labor win) or a real shock on the night.
Swing Lowe - not writing off Dobell, Page or Herbert.
A thought for you comrades - the last 2004 newspoll had 50.5 for the Libs and it came out 52.7 - apply the same error this comes out 51.5 ALP - 48.5 Libs, would you all still be so confident?
Mad Cow: what about all the people who don’t have fixed line phones anymore?
Newspoll doesn’t pick up people with only mobiles, right?
Can people stop saying that they expect the Labor vote to go up. Federal elections do not result in 56+ outcomes. It just doesn’t happen.
Rudd needs every bit of the awesome luck (and skill not to stuff up) that he is having at the moment to plug the leak back to the Coalition.
We have seen a narrowing, whether we like it or not. People who were going to vote Labor have decided that they won’t after all. I expect this “risk aversion drift” to continue right up to polling day. I am sticking with my prediction: 52.5 / 47.5 - narrow Labor victory.
Sinic@246, Ryan is very much in play for the ALP. Central office ALP money coming in over the last week and this week. also note the CM had a Bowman specific ad in today’s edition. I think 5-12% seats in SE Qld are in trouble for the Tories!
It seems Brown thinks the election result to be a foregone conclusion.
Have received confirmation from party headquarters that I will be in Lindsay on polling day. We must fend off the trots.
It’s worth watching, middle man. Bob Brown, despite his faults, does think very deeply.
Can I sign off now?
Here’s one of my predictions for Saturday [*gazes into crystal ball*]:
Wait…. its becoming clearer….. yes…
I see a bookie snorting Andrew’s $200 off some lithe mynx’s belly.
The latest revelation with regard to the Government’s future plans for WorkChoices is just more big trouble and more wasted oxygen for the LNP.
This is just so consistent at 54%ish it is not an abberation.
There is potential there to take this to 55% on election day which where they almost are now and, with also the 10%? undecideds flowing to Rudd at 2/1 a 55% is a real possibility.
Saturday night could be a very good night.
Self serving bias and polarisation - Your vote will decide
Yes you can Marktwain. Thank you very much, you’re lovely despite what Jasmine says.
Generic person,
Grow up you loser.
“256
Generic Person Says:
November 19th, 2007 at 10:53 pm
Have received confirmation from party headquarters that I will be in Lindsay on polling day. We must fend off the trots.”
The Trots? What’s Keith Windschuttle doing up in Lindsay?
Generic Person Says: “Have received confirmation from party headquarters that I will be in Lindsay on polling day.”
ummm…. who cares?
No 264
The world is much too small for petulant school boys like you.
My local ALP candidate said that he was handing out
“how to vote” cards at prepoll today when the
Liberal opposite was called home suddenly.
Shortly afterwards an American replacement arrived
and happily chatted about how she didn’t normally
get let out of campaign office but was happy to fill
in for a few hours. She said she was a US Republican
campaign adviser being borrowed by the local Liberal
MP.
This all seems bizarre as the Liberal campaign is
totally stupid. How can the Republicans hope to
get anywhere next year if this is what they do on a
practice ground??
Geez, the red cordial has been passed around in here tonight!
HH @253, that is part of what I’m thinking. Of course newspoll and everyone else does try to get a ‘matched’ sample.. same spread of age ranges etc. But, there may be secondary effects. Those people who don’t have a fixed line might tend to approve more strongly of Labor’s broadband policy. (you see this kind of thing popping up in the threads on whirlpool often).
Point is, there are probably cultural factors yet to be discovered. Groups of people the polls never reaches that were significantly different from the norm.
I’d also like to nominate non english speaking people who are now more connected than ever thanks to the net.
Re-action from the bettting markets to the Newspoll….
- bugger all as far as I can see - so all up Newspoll comes in at PAR.
Just one less day for the rodent to come up with a super wedge. His latest efforts on work choices is, quite simply, his worst so far.
Less than 50 hours before their TV spending advantage disappears.
Hmmm….might send some union bosses to lindsay.
Generic Person
You give US the trots!
the trots? did you eat something bad GP?
Hey Possum, I’m up to my second liter of coke.. want some?
ESJ - who is confident? Not me! The stakes are too high for self delusions. Hopefully sometime on 24/11/07 we will have a new Labor government, until then it is anyones.
253 ESJ
I am afraid you are wrong on that one- public support is much more significant than institutional backing for real democratic and active unions to grow and win for members.
The Parties can help us or hinder us in terms of our access to workers to build that support, party support or otherwise does not win the day for workers in itself, as an organised union they need to win for themselves.
Hi all, been working on my Monte Carlo simulator. I plugged in the 54/46% and got the following results based on 100000 simulations:
Num of ALP seats:
Num seats: 76, num times: 1
Num seats: 77, num times: 6
Num seats: 78, num times: 14
Num seats: 79, num times: 77
Num seats: 80, num times: 206
Num seats: 81, num times: 600
Num seats: 82, num times: 1297
Num seats: 83, num times: 2531
Num seats: 84, num times: 4643
Num seats: 85, num times: 7239
Num seats: 86, num times: 9961
Num seats: 87, num times: 12481
Num seats: 88, num times: 13627
Num seats: 89, num times: 13115
Num seats: 90, num times: 11554
Num seats: 91, num times: 8919
Num seats: 92, num times: 6041
Num seats: 93, num times: 3774
Num seats: 94, num times: 2150
Num seats: 95, num times: 1046
Num seats: 96, num times: 436
Num seats: 97, num times: 193
Num seats: 98, num times: 66
Num seats: 99, num times: 20
Num seats: 100, num times: 2
Num seats: 101, num times: 1
Avg = 88.3249, Std = 2.9232550333490375
Based on the simulation, the following is a list of seats and it’s probability that it falls to the ALP
Kingston (SA) 98.582
Bonner (QLD) 98.098
Wakefield (SA) 97.682
Parramatta (NSW) 97.489
Makin (SA) 97.335
Braddon (TAS) 96.906
Hasluck (WA) 94.749
Stirling (WA) 94.107
Wentworth (NSW) 91.82
Bass (TAS) 91.305
Solomon (NT) 90.201
Moreton (QLD) 90.141
Lindsay (NSW) 89.719
Eden-Monaro (NSW) 87.201
Bennelong (NSW) 80.524
Dobell (NSW) 73.421
Deakin (VIC) 71.333
McMillan (VIC) 71.123
Corangamite (VIC) 67.843
Boothby (SA) 66.974
Page (NSW) 65.53
Blair (QLD) 62.973
La Trobe (VIC) 61.902
Herbert (QLD) 56.378
Kalgoorlie (WA) 55.454
Paterson (NSW) 55.312
McEwen (VIC) 53.75
Cowper (NSW) 50.062
Longman (QLD) 49.871
Sturt (SA) 48.682
Robertson (NSW) 47.281
Petrie (QLD) 40.875
Flynn (QLD) 37.127
Gippsland (VIC) 36.906
Hinkler (QLD) 29.517
Hughes (NSW) 27.578
Higgins (VIC) 24.184
Bowman (QLD) 23.318
Dickson (QLD) 23.255
Dunkley (VIC) 18.55
Gilmore (NSW) 18.453
Canning (WA) 17.507
Kooyong (VIC) 16.881
Goldstein (VIC) 13.819
North Sydney (NSW) 13.789
Dawson (QLD) 13.683
Leichhardt (QLD) 11.415
Ryan (QLD) 11.038
Forrest (WA) 10.392
Menzies (VIC) 9.409
Moore (WA) 8.589
Fisher (QLD) 7.631
Flinders (VIC) 7.164
Macarthur (NSW) 6.735
Casey (VIC) 6.367
Warringah (NSW) 6.237
Calare (NSW) 5.875
Greenway (NSW) 5.86
Forde (QLD) 5.421
Tangney (WA) 4.908
Wide Bay (QLD) 3.498
Wannon (VIC) 2.95
Fairfax (QLD) 2.888
Hume (NSW) 2.153
Pearce (WA) 1.956
Aston (VIC) 1.602
Cook (NSW) 1.431
Lyne (NSW) 1.324
Mayo (SA) 1.063
Berowra (NSW) 0.982
Grey (SA) 0.907
McPherson (QLD) 0.856
Curtin (WA) 0.421
Mackellar (NSW) 0.162
Fadden (QLD) 0.115
Indi (VIC) 0.083
Farrer (NSW) 0.055
Parkes (NSW) 0.019
Bradfield (NSW) 0.014
Kennedy (QLD) 0.001
Barker (SA) 0.001
Seems to be working, however will need to fine tune based on the distribution of the swing (need some psephs to help with that).
It is lucky Glen has ten fingers and ten toes so he can count up all the seats the Libs will win on Saturday night with their 30 odd percent of the vote.
GP @ 258 which booth?
Oh ho ho, Lefty E.
More likely, I’ll be swimming in my earnings, Scrooge McDuck style!
Sure, 500.00 dollars or so would barely fill a wading pool, but I’ll do my best!
And hey, I’m not saying the polls are wrong. In fact, I’ll be very surprised if the Labor 2PP is less than 52%, could be close to 54% even.
mad cow @ 247 - re possible reasons for polls underestimating the Labor vote: Australians living overseas don’t get polled, and they strongly favour the anti-coalition parties. A lot have signed up. Even my daughter and her boyfriend have got onto the roll after letting their enrolments lapse, and they’ll be voting against Cossie and Robb from the other side of the world. The Web helps – better information, easy to get hold of. The AEC site is a national treasure.
Cool as.
Looks like LTEP may be correct.
Coalition a certainty.
Samuel K,
Newspoll has not moved in the last 3 weeks - it was 54/46 then and it’s exactly the same now.
ACN has not moved since the start of the campaign either - 54/46 then and it was the same last week.
From looking at the polls since the campaign started, there was an immediate move in the first 2 weeks towards the Coalition from 56/44 to 54/46. Since then it has been constant (save for fluctuations in MOE). There is no objective evidence of the Libs gaining any votes in the last fortnight or last week. It is even less likely they’ll gain some votes this week, as the advertising blackout kicks in 49 hours.
What I’m saying is that the jumpy Labor supporters on the blog should take a chill pill and look at the data objectively. It’s not happening for the Libs and as Antony Green has said - the polls are consistent for Labor now.
Hey Possum , you said red cordial but i actually need valium!!!
A wee statistical query: wouldnt the sheer succession of consistent polls suggest that the MOE (which would be relevant for any particular one) is way less than 3%?
ie arent we getting reliability across time etc; and so is MOE altogether less useful discussion now?
I hasten to add I dont know shit.
No 280
That hasn’t yet been confirmed. But I do know I’m in Lindsay.
Put simply Greens are the only alternative. Why? Climate Change this issue must be dealt with and now. The arctic is melting rapidly and oceans are rising and when the arctic melts temperatures will rise significantly. Not doing anything now means significant probs to come and a world which will die a slow death. Greens are to me the only alternative to the stupid policies being announced- Roads, tax cuts, pulp mills etc.
The Age in Melbourne tells us how serious climate change is becoming and will in the future unless we act.
Generic Person,
You Liberals are gonna get your back sides kicked till your nose bleeds.
For the 2 Morgans,Galaxy, Newspoll and the AGB, the TPP after corrections for House Effects is
Morgan f2f 55.4%
Morgan phone 55.5%
Galaxay 55.3%
Newspoll 55.4%
AGBMcN 55.7%
Average is 55.5%. Seen that number somewhere before.
No 289
Oh come on Greensborough, haven’t you anything better?
Each poll is unique though.
Just because you flip a coin and get tails, doesn’t automatically mean next time you’ll get heads.
Geoff Lambert. isn’t an AGB an after grog bog?
Will @278.. yay! thank you! I was gonna code one of those but I kept getting distracted by PB
It may be a symptom of coalition internal polling, or whatever, but tonight on Canberra TV Alby Schultz in Hume has been advertising. I have never seen him in an electoral ad before.
ACTU has organised internationally through other peak union bodies for OS voters in UK and US- has been big response, has been unlike other elections in terms of planning and execution of OS campaigning.
I have been quite impressed with what i have seen.
I wonder if the LIbs used the international charter of accountants to do the same lmao.
7/10, would’ve been an 8 if you didn’t laugh at your own joke.
Howard’s only hope is to win 2 Labor seats in WA, and limit his losses elsewhere.
The danger for him is that seats in the 7-10% range are vulnerable, eg. North Sydney, Ryan
Mike C - what’s Alby advertising? I thought he was as anti-rodent as anyone on that side of the house?
Jenny @282, do you know if there are any numbers on overseas voters?
I saw a news item months ago about there being a campaign on the net to get them to vote this time but I can’t remember the source.
Andrew, getten sie real, kameraden: the chance of the LNP winning with 48% 2PP are virtually nil.
Won’t get interesting ‘98 style unless the LNP gets 48.5 at least; and in most realistic sceanarios they’d need 49+.
297
I couldn’t help it when i pictured the image of them trying to “cut through” in door knocking back packer hostels
BBD - The Power at Work stuff is dangerous propaganda designed to further the careers of some ACTU apparatchiks and hangers on. If you are at 16% in WA your finished sad to say!
Just look at the annual returns on the AIRC website. Rudd aint going to die in a ditch defending unions afterwards - he will be looking to grow his majority in QLD in 2010. Get out whilst you still can!
” Federal elections do not result in 56+ outcomes. It just doesn’t happen.”
That is a description of history not an observation of the present. A historically rare occurance yes - but with all polls agreeing [as they didn't last election] saying this is 54% - a self destructing government with something like proof they had plans to extend WorkChoices as came out todays - makes 54-55 a genuine possibility.
And Possum’s model using historical data suggests 55% and Jackman’s model suggests 54%. THUS 54.5% is certainly a real possibility especially as undecideds break 2/1 with the trend - which I gather is 67% of 10% undecideds will vote Rudd. [In 2001 it was about 59/41 break to Labor]
So regardless of history, the world keeps changing, this is a real possibility, not a certainty, a possibility and shouldn’t be ruled out because it hasn’t happened for Labor before.
No 301
Never fear, we’ll romp home with 60% of the vote, condemning the ALP to another decade in the wilderness.
Lefty E
Because the polls are taken over a time period where the thing being measured changes (or at least we assume some people change their votes) you can’t say that.
It’s not like flipping a coin where the more trials you do the more you can be sure of the number you’re getting.
Nevertheless the consistency of the polls all year would SUGGEST the true value lies around 54-55%, unless there is a sampling/weighting bias. Ok now the true psephs can jump in.
Mad Cow: I was bored at work, and since I’m a programmer I though WTF and I should do it. Slowly building it up over the night. i want to break it down per state swings. Also I’m making the bold assumption that the swing is spread via a normal distribution with the STD as 3%.
It gives results what we see by Antony’s calculator but can give us a better idea of what seats are in play and what’s the probability of them falling. Of course it doesn’t take in to affect that seats like Bennelong and Wenworth won’t fall as much, but we can see that they’re not 100% likely to fall anyway.
Michael @ 39
Re how preferences are allocated to produce 2PP estimates
As BBD says, Morgan does both methods of allocating preferences - asking people who their preference goes for, and calculating two series using that and 2004 election behaviour. More often thannot, they give the same result rounded, as Morgan does, to half a percentage point.
On average, though, the “what voters say” method produces a result a bit under 0.4 percentage points higher for ALP than does the “2004 election” method.
A priori, it’s not clear wich would be more accurate. Some people may be clear on who they’ll give their first preference to, but unsure after that. Others may be clear on whether they want to vote for or against Howard, but unsure at the time of polling whether to give their first preference to, say, Labor or the Greens.
I think the more reliable method is probably the one that produces the less variation in the 2PP vote from week to week. So I looked at the standard deviation of these two estimates over the past 3 years. The results were:
2PP based on what voters say - std dev = 3.98
2PP based on 2004 election behaviour - std dev = 4.09
On that basis, I’d say using what voters say is slightly more reliable, but not by much. We probably won’t be ably to test it on election day because the MOE of the polls is quite a lot more than the effect of choice of preference allocation.
Note that Newspoll normally allocates preferences using a simple version of the “2004 election behaviour” method (I’m not sure of they’ve switched during the campaign) whereas Nielsen uses “what voters say”, asking:
“[IF MINOR PARTY IN 1a OR 1b] At a Federal Election you will be required to vote
for all candidates in your electorate in order of preference. Given this, will you
give a higher preference to the Labor Party candidate or the Liberal/National
Party candidate?”.
Left E,
I’ve wondered that too. The MOE discussed here tend to be worked out assuming a random sample from a normal or binomial distribution. But the Polling organisations would ask lots of other questions such as age, education, income, etc etc which they could use to tighten up the MOE.
Anyone here know how the pollers used background info to adjust the raw numbers?
Mad cow - have been hunting around to see if I can find accurate numbers; I think there are between 750K-900K of them, and the voting turnout has been very poor in the past, because a lot of people thought that you paid double tax if you remained registered here. AEC has cleared up that misapprehension. Will keep hunting and get back to you. Found one story at http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/expats-hide-so-labor-seeks/2007/09/30/1191090943392.html but it’s a bit old and vague on numbers.
Thats what Im getting at Matt - applying standard MOE to a consistent poll average figure across time would surely be un- or less necessary (as opposed to any one poll)?
What! Why only 60%. Doesn’t Howard just have to fart in the general direction of voters and they all rush over to vote for him?
ESJ
I told you three times now ALP will NOT save the Unions and you keep putting it back to me like an arguement- I AGREE!
Unions have the power to save themselves- do you think they came into existence by some parliamentary act or something?
Learn the history. If you dont like unions dont join them. If you really despise everything they stand for- dont take annual leave, superanuation, dont use medicare, dont wear safety equptment, whatever makes you feel less stained by unions.
In 1998 it was 53/47 to Labor three days before the election. I’m waiting until the last few days before I get an idea whether we’ve got a.) A close election (marginals) or b.) landslide.
Left e
I think what you’re talking about is the poll average as in Geoff Lamberts post. Probably why no ones talking about a 51 whenever Labor poll 54. The poll average is clearly approx 55. In my humble and half arsed opinion you’re right - the moe range can be narrowed down..
Bring back values (and morals) - honesty, decenty, truth, respect, hard work, fair deal, hand-in-hand, two way street, win-win, be firm but fair, give the boss some reassurance that you are looking after the interests of all concerned. Bring happiness and joy to the people you care about, be happy with yourself, stick it out, through tough times, be strong and stick to your beliefs. Have conviction.
The numbers wouldn’t tell the full story, because it isn’t compulsory. So you’d have to figure out how many are overseas, then how many are registered, then how many are actually going to vote.
307 will, did you manage to solve the waterbed problem? (push down on one spot and the rest goes up a bit)
“Australians unlikely to vote for change, expatriates say…”
The Gulf News today carries this cross-section of two(!) ex pats giving their views on how Australians will vote next Saturday.
One, who works for a security company, is “not a traditional Liberal” but strongly supports Howard this time.
The other, who is a director of a marketing company, describes himself as “traditionally a Labor voter” but strongly supports Howard this time.
The cross-section of two is therefore universal!
There you have it directly from GG’s counterpart in Dubai. These two swinging or Labor leaning voters are determined that Howard should be returned for another three years. And here I was all year thinking that swinging voters were moving to Rudd. Guess I’ve been in some parallel universe.
http://www.gulf-news.com/yoursay/main_story/10168710.html
I love the people who predict it will go down to the wire. I have listened to this negativity all year… to people saying how silly it is to think that Rudd can keep it going for so long. Now they are out of time and this great equalisation has to occur on the actual voting day, because the average joe will on the day just freak out and cast one for the rodent out of nothing else but sheer trepidation.
I don’t buy it, and guess what? That can go two ways… Where is it written that the Coalition will claw anything back? How about we look at the flip side, Labor could claw back even more seats. When the swing is on it is on.
Sure, people may scoff at that, but none of us can predict the future, the pessimists and realist would have never predicted we are were we are today a year ago, so who is to say they are right about a close result?
Grooski,
I respect your point of view, but would you please stop bagging out all the other posters, nearly all of whom contribute something worthwhile in terms of understanding various qualitative issues. As I don’t have access to Textores or Hugh McKay’s focus groups, this is the best I’m going to get during the campaign.
Obviously, Antony Green, Possum, Jackman are pseph people who don’t share your views about historical analysis. They apparently think that such a large number of polls over many months is predictive, and this Newspoll fits in with the 53-55 range over the past few weeks. In fact, Hugh McKay is adamant that people have already made up their minds by this time with a negligible percentage of undecideds or soft voters still out there.
Sorry to disappoint you, Grooski, but if you’re so miffed by all the rest of our posts, please just ignore us. I certainly don’t intend to read another of your posts if I can help it.
I like Adam’s analysis. He’s gone all Greek with his hubri and nemesi:
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/commentary4.shtml
Btw, Sportingbet has the Greens favourite to take the 2nd senate seat in ACT now.
Simon
You quote one poll from 98. Unlike now there was much more volatility in the polls back then.
I’m getting together my music for next Saturday night:
Bye, bye baby, goodbye (Col Joye)
The king has lost his crown (ABBA)
See you later, alligator (Bill Haley version)
Wipeout! (The Surfaris)
Goodbye-ee (WWI ?)
Chorus:
Goodbye-ee, goodbye-ee,
Wipe the tear, baby dear, from your eye-ee,
Tho’ it’s hard to part I know,
I’ll be tickled to death to go.
Don’t cry-ee, dont sigh-ee,
there’s a silver lining in the sky-ee,
Bonsoir, old thing, cheer-i-o, chin, chin,
Nah-poo, toodle-oo, Goodbye-eee
……
Sorry, I meant Portlandbet in post 323.
Your wrong on the history BBD
Unions couldnt organise in the 1890’s so they formed the ALP to get compulsory arbitration.
That has now been removed, you wont get it back with the ALP. Without that environment you cant survive.
People join unions out of belief, like churches people arent joiners anymore.
I am not saying that in a mean or partisan way but as fact.
Mad Cow: Poss has done the figures and there are sleepers there and uneven swinging averages of all poles that are missing local variability which will trend towards Labor e.g. youth vote. It is definitely the other way News Poll is at the lower end of MOE. Howard just put the final nail in his coffin with his uncompromising approach to Work Choices. Turnbull’s dropped his bundle, Abott’s crapping on himself, it is so close to a bun fight it doesn’t matter. Read the body language they know they are gone. Rock solid with increased margin. Get with the program fellas there ain’t no hope for Little Johnny. Oh well! cognitive dissonance is a wonderful thing.
Donation gratefully received from ESJ. Many thanks to all concerned.
Left E @ 301 - if my simulator is right, at 52/48TPP that would give the following chances: ALP: 89.1%, Hung parliament: 8.5%, LNP: 2.4%.
I’m loving this simulator. I think I better get back to it and create a UI over it some all you tragics can use it too.
My God, you Krudd-lickers are really setting yourselves up for a huge, shattering disappointment.
Did any of you see the interview with the PM and the Treasurer on Today Tonight? They were in great from - relaxed, jovial and confident. Beware…
” Federal elections do not result in 56+ outcomes. It just doesn’t happen.”
Actually, Curtin’s 1943 win is estimated as 55.8 2PP (I believe they didnt actually have pref system - but thats the estimate of what it represents in modern terms)
Special circumstances of course.
Bit of trivia: the ALP won *EVERY* federal seat in Curtin’s home state of WA in *BOTH* houses in 1943.
Thats right - every senate spot as well.
Geoff Lambert Says:
November 19th, 2007 at 11:02 pm
For the 2 Morgans,Galaxy, Newspoll and the AGB, the TPP after corrections for House Effects …
….
GL, I wonder what a “House Effect” is..?
Bob Green-Brown, Lateline. Will get there, this time.
Lefty E
Curtin won every seat in WA Senate because it was first past the post.
Hey guys,
The blog troopers are in full shrill!
We’ve got them on the outer over http://blogs.news.com.au/news/blogocracy/index.php/news/comments/weekend_talkback24/P180/
Give it a go folks.
[They were in great from - relaxed, jovial and confident.]………Costello was slumped in his chair thinking “what am I doing here with chucklenuts?”
Albert F - you cant “tighten” the sampling error by weighting for demographics. In fact, and weighting that is done actually increases the margin of error you end up with.
Because the pollsters use a mix of random sampling, quota sampling and apply some stratification weights to those results - the MoE’s given in the polls by the pollsters are actually , theoretically, less than the true statistical MoE.
However, so saying - polling is unusual and the MoE in practice appears to be roughly to what is given, and what is given is the MoE that would have occurred if only pure random sampling was undertaken. I keep finding political polling data to behave in ways that are quite unusual like that.
To @286 Lefty E :
Not being a stats head i think thats a interesting question.
The consistency of the polls over such a long time, with different polling companies, and their lack of sustained response to short term events, tells me that most people made up their minds months ago, (then switched off in sheer self defense) and are largely sticking to their decision. Even though the polls are independent events they are measuring the same thing at different times so changes (or lack of change) over time are significant. Rattus is in for a hiding of biblical proportions.
Thats my qualitative assessment. If there is any way of expressing it quantitatively (index of poll significance???) it will take brighter heads than mine.
I’d really like to see the ALP win this one, not just for my own satisfaction, but so that Gough lives long enough to see Howard lose his seat and make his concession speech. That seems appropriate to me somehow.
Wrong bloody link!!!
http://blogs.news.com.au/news/blogocracy/index.php/news/comments/this_election_is_so_last_week/
331
Steven Kaye Says:
November 19th, 2007 at 11:17 pm
“My God, you Krudd-lickers are really setting yourselves up for a huge, shattering disappointment. Did any of you see the interview with the PM and the Treasurer on Today Tonight? They were in great from - relaxed, jovial and confident. Beware…”
……
I saw them SK…. never seen anything so stilted, clearly staged and weirdly-comically- pointless… but I will beware. I’d hate these guys to be in charge of anything important…..
Soundtrack for Saturday’s Liberal Party win?
We are all bourgeois now - McCarthy
“There’s something wrong somewhere here,
so through unclean streets -
I made my way
With holes in my shoes,
and my children asleep at my feet
I paid my way
In every town on the way,
the people looked grey,
the buildings looked healthy
Then one day I met a man
with money to spare,
he said he would tell me
How it is:
“The state-” he began
“-has been propping up people too long.
for far too long.
“We all got lazy and couldn’t be bothered
to raise ourselves in the world.
But we are all bourgeois now -
once there was class-war,
but not any longer
because, baby,
we are all bourgeois now,
so go out and make
your way in the world -
you’re free to choose!
We’re all free to choose!”
Etc…
Steven K - beware of what? Two losers, one past it, the other unelectable, who hate each other?
Now, get back to working on that CV.
331 - You’re a sick puppy if you think that was confident and relaxed. They looked like they were confidently and relaxedly contemplating mutual seppuku. Which is pretty much the story, really.
Mad Cow: Nah, simple normal distribution of swing based around an average, and apply that to the 150 seats, then I repeat the whole process for a large number of times. If I get it to work via States, then that would probably the closest I would get to doing that, since Adam and Antony have mentioned that within states the swings are less spread.
Big Blind Dave,
“Accountants of the world unite!
We have nothing to lose but our….”
Suggestions please.
Jackie Kelly said in the Sun-Herald yesterday.
“A friend in parliament gave me his best line for dealing with more troublesome constituents - Sir I am paid $100,000 to look after 100,000 people, here is $3 come and see me after the next election”
There will be many going to see a different MP after this election.
The Australian people need to make a very clear decision with the election result. The country has been greatly divided by John Howard and if the result is very close either way, the country will be even further divided. I see a very sad future for Australia both environmentally and socially. The Religious Right and their infiltration of both major parties is the BIGGEST concern , but the electorate are not aware with what is happening. Individual freedoms and rights are greatly at risk and with The House of Unrepresentatives (not elected by proportional representation ) , there are thousands of citizens with no one to represent their views in the parliament.
Will, a N=100000 Monte Carlo? Wow, how long did that take?
cardigans
Yes, we know Stephen. Howard will defy all the odds and win the election in a landslide, cure cancer, bring an end to the drought and be joined by Jesus and all the Saints in ending world hunger. Don’t know why we even bother having elections. Might as well just make him President for life.
For anybody who is interested the Newspoll before the 04 election was 2% too low on the National vote and 1.5% too high on the Labor vote. If this is the case here the primary votes would be 43% and 44.5%. This would be more inline with Labor polling and Galaxy.
Also the Morgan poll was much better for Labor at 56.5-43.5 yet the swing was not happening in all the seats Labor needed. People get ready for a long night on Sat.
provision accounts?
328 Stephen, you know it makes me think, and maybe Antony Green’s puzzlement plays into this. Maybe just maybe there’s gonna be more green primaries this time thanks to all the (soft) Liberals who can’t stand Howard, are genuinely scared of Labor, but the news is full of climate change. They go green (and thanks to the miracle of how to vote cards) end up swinging to Labor.
If that’s the case, this last week is going to be huge.. Story after story in the press about climate disaster.
I still think the Victorian marginals are going to stay Liberal. Reports coming in from other states say that the Labor campaigns are much more active on the ground. Plus, Liberal MPs in marginals in other states have screwed up in some way, where as Baressi, Wood, Bailey, McArthur etc are not controversial types. and apart from Cox, there are no stars for Labor, and at least one real dud (Cheeseman in Corangamite). Material from Labor has not appeared in letterboxes for a week in some parts of the marginals. Labor has been unsighted on the ground in some areas. According to contacts, Labor has all but disappeared in Southern Geelong, and Labor needs another six weeks in to win over La Trobe. Deakin is not getting much of the Rudd tour from what we see on TV.
Plus, the anti union thing may work a bit in a state like Victoria with it’s union identities.
Tell me why these seats will fall to Labor?
Richmond has to win a Premiership first.
“322
Marktwain Says:
November 19th, 2007 at 11:15 pm
I like Adam’s analysis. He’s gone all Greek with his hubri and nemesi:
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/commentary4.shtml”
Not Greek, MT. German. See the sub-heads of Ian Kershaw’s two volume biography of Adolf Hitler. Vol I: Hubris. Vol II: Nemesis.
FWIW, I find this whole ‘Last days in the Berlin bunker’ analogy quite wrong. As coincidence would have it, I was watching Downfall on Saturday night (it was on telly over here), and Eva Braun comes across as a far more sympathetic figure than Janette Howard.
The polls are meaningless and it will be so good to watch a thousand and one socialist keyboard heroes hit the fence on Saturday night when the hopes that were once so grand are finally washed away in Swan and Cowan.
Those Kevin07 t-shirts will be good to wipe up the tears that will fall and the vomit that will be hurled by the ALP stamp-lickers who are going to cop a fifth straight defeat. Badly.
Labor will quite simply fail to hit 16. They’ll get 4 in NSW (Parramatta, Dobell, Eden-Monaro and Lindsay) and 3 in Qld (Bonner, Moreton and Herbert). 3 will go in SA (Makin, Kingston, Wakefield) and 1 will fall in Victoria (La Trobe) whilst both Bass and Braddon will fall.
Just 13 seats - and just remember that most of those victories will be manufactured by the usual electoral rorts of the trade unions and their charming mates.
In contrast, Cowan will be won comfortably by the Liberal Party and, in the sweetest victory, Steve Irons will lower the boom on the useless Kim Wilkie in Swan.
A narrow but satisfying win for the Coalition, for the bookmakers and for decent, patriotic Australians everywhere!
Lefty E @ 332: there was preferential voting in 1943 (introduced 1919), but there were so many seats back then that were uncontested by one or other major party that any national two-party figure is a bit hypothetical.
Lukas @ 308
The reason why pollsters steer away from using the ‘what those polled say’ method of allocating preferences, is because of the huge effective MOE in such estimates. Say we have a poll with a sample size of 800. Say 7% of them, or 56 individuals indicate that they vote Greens. Ask them their second preferences. Now you have a sample size of 56, and you are trying to find out whether they split, say, 80:20 to Labor or 60:40. 80:20 would be 45 saying they preference Labor. 60:40 would be 34 saying the same. In other words if 5 of your sample of 800 were the ‘wrong’ 5, and told you 60:40 but the ‘true’ figure was 80:40, you would get your TPP wrong by 1.25%, and be vilified by the media, and everybody else. All of this is exacerbated by the fact that the reliability of the original 7% Greens vote approximation is not too hot. It could be 5% or 9%. Would you hang your hat on your TPP result?
cheers,
Alan H
Accountants of the world unite!
We have nothing to lose but our catamite
Sure did, best ALP ad of the whole campaign IMO
ESJ
I have no problem if that is what the employing class want to believe about the history and role of unions- they wont see us coming. I see smarter employers realise the truth of the matter and act accordingly with counter organising strategies straight from US IR firms.
I also see Neo-Con Lib/Nats that dont have a real clue for themselves just buy the Howard/Costello spin on the matter too. “People join unions out of belief, like churches people arent joiners anymore”
If Howard/Costello really believed thier own spin, Workchoices would not bother limiting Unions ability to have a legitimate role in the workplace because removing the arbitration system does the job of making them irrelevant anyway in your opinion.
If employers believed the spin they would have no problem with agreeing to neutrality when it comes to workers getting access to unions to make a free and informed decision would they?
Workers can and will organise collectively and win, with and without arbitration- it happens all over the world and your leaders know it and hate it.
“A narrow but satisfying win for the Coalition, for the bookmakers and for decent, patriotic Australians everywhere!”
Oh the humanity! HA HA HA HA HA HA
“Donation gratefully received from ESJ. Many thanks to all concerned.”
Good for you Edward.
Grooski: about 6 secs.
Not long at all. Probably wouldn’t that much difference in the results if I went up another order of 10. Seems the average and standard deviation of the results are very close when I go higher.
Thanks Poss,
“I keep finding political polling data to behave in ways that are quite unusual like that.
Yep the real world has nobs on it.
352
No thanks I want to be in bed by 9.30, happy with Kevin holding the reigns of power. My little boy doesn’t care about the election. He’s going to wake me up at 5.30 am on the 25th for his feed regardless. So let’s hope for a nice big landslide.
Thanks William! Wondered why no-one used Curtin’s ‘43 win as a peak example.
re Lefty E @ 286
As shows on @292 says, each poll is unique. But the implication is important.
In a poll of 1000 people, the MOE is about 3 points. Suppose you want to know if the Coalition have actually got 49% of popular support (and ALP 51%), which is probably roughly what the Coalition needs to hold on to office. There’s a 1 on 20 chance, when that poll shows 54/46, that it’s actually 51/49 or better for the Libs.
But if another, independently conducted poll, also shows 54/46, then the chance that the real vote intention is 51/49 when two polls show 54/46 is 1/20 x 1/20, ie 1/400.
If a third independently conducted poll shows 54/46 at the same time then the chance it’s really 51.49 is 1/8000. Add a fourth and its 1/160,000.
At the moment three of the four most recent polls show 54/46. The fourth shows 56/44. I think we can safely say that, at the moment, the Libs are not as close as 51/49, probably by a long way.
If the Libs are to win, they will need a huge turnaround in voter opinion in the last week of the campaign. But almost all the headline stories at the start of the campaign are bad for them.
Let’s see, if a poll showed a certain result this far out from the last election and was wrong by a certain percentage, that automatically means a corresponding poll this election will be out by the same amount this time around? Can someone point me to the science, mathematics or whatever that proves this must be the case? Maybe you can Stephen (352), seeing that you espouse this theory.
327
Edward StJohn Says:
November 19th, 2007 at 11:16 pm
“…..Unions couldnt organise in the 1890’s so they formed the ALP to get compulsory arbitration….”
…
among other things, ESJ, among many other things. As you say, it is true that people are not much inclined to “join” anything these days. Having noted that, don’t you think it is amazing that so many people still belong to unions? The union movement is certainly more representative of society, than, say the Lberal party. Unions may not be the universal voice they once aspired to be, but they still speak for very many. John Howard is well aware of that, which is why he sought to destroy them.
My one problem with all of your polls and statistics is that it’s based on people - and people are flawed. Conservatives, Progressives, undecideds. Who knows how the majority of these people in these so called marginals think at any one time? Some may have seen Howard and Costello on Today Tonight and thought “I’m voting for them”. Then something might change their mind on Friday. These are people, not statistics. I love all your analysis and I’m addicted to this website but we’re dealing with a lot of flaky people who know F.A about politics - there could be 8,000 people in one marginal who decide who to vote for as they number the boxes on Saturday. Be afraid, be very afraid.
8, 29, 47 and anyone else picking up the rodents’ drivel about economic management and Labor (blah blah blah) see Peter Martin today http://petermartin.blogspot.com/ (”Don’t doubt it, Labor is ready to govern”).
Land ob hope and glory…..mammy how I (how does it go Isabella the patriot)
Grooski - Simulations like that normally take about 30 secs to a minute these days, depending on the software usually. Having some decent grunt under the bonnet helps too (or course)
Isabella,
Why don’t you think the Liberals will hold Makin?
Crikey, this is a nightmare.
Spent a few hours at friend’s place this arvo, trying to WEP into her broadband.
For my laptop, party, at hers.
Harrowing, failure, failure, failure. I have done this elsewhere, successfully, easily, numerous times before.
N relates horror story of problems, connection, modem, etc. All Telstra. So maybe. WTF?
Soooo hard.
Alex returns to N’s. Alex is from Hong Kong. Student. Continually shocked at our delivery speed. Tells me, not for the first time, how different it is in Hong Kong.
All buildings wired. Speeds like Bat out of Hell.
Hey, Alex, can I have a look at your laptop? Check out your settings? Yes, but all in Chinese. Or Mandarin, for all I know.
Finally work out what to do. Got Pollbludger up at N’s, on Alex’s, in English.
Upshot. Will be on line. Saturday.
Any chance of ADSL2, N?
NUP. Thanks, John Howard.
BBD -
Unions can only rebuild when they divorce from the ALP. Your leadership wont allow that because they crave the “power” of ALP affiliation.
I have no problem with legal neutrality for unions. Unfortunately thats not what your leadership in the ACTU is seeking and you know it.
I understand the organising model - doesnt amount to a hill of beans - if it did (and it was introduced in what 1994 after yet another overseas junket) union membership would be rising not declining.
Thats why Crosby advocates closed shops again its just dressed up as making non-members pay for union provided “benefits”.
“346
Robert Bollard Says:
November 19th, 2007 at 11:23 pm
Big Blind Dave,
“Accountants of the world unite!
We have nothing to lose but our….”
Suggestions please.”
Receipts? (well, it usually happens to me)
BTW, all you prol lefty scum out there, as a white-collar wage slave in the City of London, I can assure you that even the accountants are thoroughly fed up with Little Johnny and Capt. SmirkChoices.
And if JWH really believes, as he said today, that people might hate him, but no one thinks the Libs are incompetent, he obviously doesn’t read the same broking house research that comes across my desk on a daily basis. I was amused by one piece of Australian mining research (amused given its a house that tries to avoid political controversy) the other day which said the government had squandered the proceeds of the boom.
ESJ: “Unions couldn’t organise in the 1890s” - they only had established 30% coverage ahead of the rest of the world before they were crushed by a depression. You then go on to say that they rebuilt themselves through arbitration. Bull! Raymond Markey has done some excellent detective work on the rebuilding of unions in the first decade of the 20th Century and has proved that they rebuilt themselves BEFORE arbitration via traditional organising methods. Arbitration was at least as much an attempt to control and civilise a growing movement (which had reached the 30% coveraqe mark by 1912 - before Harvester).
Labor Governments? Didn’t help much as all. The leading union official in the early Labor governments was the President of the WWF, a bloke named Billy Hughes. So maybe the Coalition ads are right. You can’t trust them union bosses.
Will from Kooyong - thanks for establishing the point with groovy numbers. There you go, folks 52-48 means ALP in 89% of scenarios.
Will, I want your simulator on my desk by 9am tomorrow.
VoterBoy @ 357 - you’re quite right. Might I also suggest that Costello is a far less sensitive figure than Heinrich Himmler.
Possum: Dual core mac? hehe. The simulation isn’t that complex really. However if I get a hold of a distribution that better represents the swing distribution then it would take a bit longer.
376 hehe Poss, I remember the days when we would set a N=10000 MC into Lotus and go home for the day
#371 Gary,
Further to your comment, Antony Green touched on this tonight on Lateline. He commented on the 2% variation between Newspoll’s final pre-election poll and the 2004 election result by saying that Newspoll was asking respondents for their preferences last time, and this time they are using distributive models based on where the preferences actually flowed to at the election itself.
Stephen, the last two Newspolls before the election had a rock solid, consistent Coalition primary vote (46,45 and 46.7 on E-Day) and movement between the minor party vote and the ALP vote. That’s where the error in the TPP estimatation came in between the last poll and election day.
This time - the situation is reversed.
The latest UN report on climate change states that the worlds’ oceans have up to 1960 averaged a rise of 1.8mm a year but since 1993, 3.1 mm a year and 11 of the last 12 years have been the hottest on record in the world.
Want more read
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_spm.pdf
unfortunately it is temporarily down.
Those who are saying - be afraid of the Coalition coming back and snatching victory. Why fear anything??? This is democracy, and the people will have their say, one way or another. Seems to me that there are some “concern trolls” lurking (not mentioning any names Andrew). On the other end, you have Young Liberals like Isabella, who’s sole aim is to try and be as obnoxious as possible. I could also say things like “Those who vote Liberal don’t have the best interests of this nation at heart; they are not patriots”, but I won’t. I absolutely defend the right of each and every one to have their own view, regardless of my own personal opinions.
BO
Unions speak for about 15% of the private sector workforce and are declining by about 05-1% per annum.
They are no longer representative. Most of the union leadership are not “shop floor” types who’ve worked their way up their young labor activists who worked their way up unions and are using them as platforms to parliament.
Unions are also opponents of reform because they are so financially weakened they refuse to have public sector reform because they still represent 40% of the public sector and they fear privatisation mainly because they know they cant recruit in the public sector.
The ALP would be better without them and unions would be better without the ALP.
Theres a legitimate role for unions but they wont find it until:
a) they divorce the ALP
b) they abandoned industrial arbitration
I feel for some of the younger crowd who buy the union rhetoric because it ultimately creates an unemployable class of union activist which is cynically used by older lairs to perpetuate their own position.
will @345, when I tried that by hand using the federal swing (well known), state swings (roughly well known) and then added a factor to describe the way voters tend to swing more from the more strongly Liberal held seats (since there’s more Liberal voters to swing there)..
Well. the point at which I got a bit less certain was having a sensible standard deviation to apply within each state. I read up on that analysis recently that went back over a number of elections. I also read how the standard deviation goes down as the overall swing goes up. In the end I had to try out a few sd’s that ‘felt’ right. At that point I had some interesting results regarding probability.
And at that stage I compared it to the implied probabilities in the betting markets. Suffice it to say I have some money sitting on this
Anyhow that last point. What is a suitable standard deviation? I don’t have enough data to sensibly apply it to a computer simulation. What factors did you use?
See.. the standard deviation for a seat doesn’t matter much where the seat is close to 50/50 but for a seat like Mayo, it makes all the difference
“383
CL de Footscray Says:
November 19th, 2007 at 11:36 pm
VoterBoy @ 357 - you’re quite right. Might I also suggest that Costello is a far less sensitive figure than Heinrich Himmler.”
And I couldn’t see Mrs Abbott poisoning the kids. Although I could see Mr Abbott getting her to do it. You know, traditional divisions of labor in the home - that sort of thing.
ESJ-
I think you would find that “organising model” is actually working, it is not universally applied.
In fact it is still used by only a minority of unions in its entirety (or close to it).
Those unions are all growing.
Research on the matter has been done by David Peetz and Barbara Pocock and is available if you care to lok it up.
Crosby does not advocate a closed shop he advoactes organising all workers in a workplace to increase likelyhood of success. As opposed to orgainising half and asking arbitrator to do all of your work for you.
When Anty from Aunty says on Lateline this is the most stable polling he has ever seen, it’s time for Glen, GP, Tabitha, ESJ, and all those other deluded souls to stop telling us how they are still chance and start telling us where it all went wrong. So you political cadavers, what happened to turn your kingdom of deceit into a mortuary?
It will still be close. I’m predicting a Labor win - JUST - but it will be so much closer than what people are predicting. We forget that about 15% of people decide as they are WALKING INTO THE POLLING BOOTH! Literally. Could we safely presume that maybe 10% of these people would vote for the incumbent? That 10% of people would give a fair swing back to the Coalition and could be the difference between a marginal seat falling to Labor and being held.
We forget that most people don’t take as much notice as we do. Heck, a lot of people can hardly read, let alone decide who to vote for.
#377. Sadly, I don’t think Bob Day will get there. Trish Draper may have contributed to the success the Party enjoyed in the early days, but her bizaare behaviour has for the pst few years to the Party’s detriment.
A real shame - Bob Day is the sort of industrious, hard-working, entrepreneurial visionary the Parliament needs. Certainly of more value than another illiterate babbling trade unionist/local council hack a la 99% of Federal ALP candidates (the candidates in Fremantle and Eden-Monaro excepted).
Union membership is declining because all workers benefit from union negotiated enterprise bargains. i.e. union and non-union members.
Robert Bollard
Federation happened in 1901, awards and arbitration came in the first decade. Therefore you must be wrong.
EStJ
Union negotiated wage bargains - ShowsON
Wrong.
Wages are higher for comparable non-union workers.
So ESJ you are a direct actionist? You want the unions to abandon arbitration? Welcome to the One Big Union comrade! The IWW never had a recruit with your bourgeois credentials.
Mad cow: My brain hurts now. It’s too late to think about that, and I think too late in the election to get it out by Saturday. I think i will have it ready for the next federal election.
If I was still doing maths and physics at uni then I would think about it more, maybe if i was doing a PhD in psephology then I would do more of that too.
Take it for what it is, just a nice indicator. Once you start playing with this or that it just gets too complex. I’d put a disclaimer on this that I’m not responsible if anyone uses my results to bet their house on a win.
I wrote enterprise bargains because I meant enterprise bargains.
Where did I mention wages?
399
you are making that up ESJ
even ABS disagree with that BS
Sure Robert Bollard I have no problem with collective bargaining.
Talking about the workforce, some interesting statistics came out last week concerning executive and second in charge salaries. What they showed was that over the last ten years executive salaries have risen 237% and those who are their assistants 233%. Interesting that not a mention hardly anywhere. Pathetic.
Toby, its theoretically possible: but if undecideds broke that dramatically, one way, pre-election polls would be “wronger” than they have been over recent years.
See Possum on these issues. General view is that undecideds break with the trend, I gather.
No BBD - awards actually hold back wage increases for many,many people.
The biggest problem I have to face on election day is having to go to my niece’s 21st at some pub (in a swingable seat, by the way, in eastern Melb …). Of course, laptop needs to be connected. Having done a little research it appears that the 3 mobile USB wireless modem thingy (@$199 up-front and $29/month for 1 gig) is about the best deal - noting also that I get telstra thinband at home and whatever somewhat faster thing I get at work. Any advice guys? And yes, you people overseas can all laugh, I know how pathetic Aussie intenet connections are …
Many business deliberately pay above “union” rates to keep unions out. Also some sectors of the economy have high bargaining power regardless of unions such as skilled tradespeople.
Nonsense ESJ - awards are a floor for 90% of workers, and wage levels are set by EBAs.
When are you guys going to work out that Keating developed the IR system we’ve had through the last 10 years of boom?
Most people work under enterprise bargains.
Awards are generally for the low paid workers with low skills who can’t get an enterprise bargain to increase wages for productivity gains.
I think you should stop talking about I.R., you obviously don’t know much about how it actually works.
Speaking of fan-boy rhetoric, some of you may have missed Pancho’s earlier comment on John Howard, ‘Why I want to see blood, in about 100 words’
Here’s my version -
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=-D2c0hoSmvM
If Pancho or Mr Bludger object, I can remove the end reference/source.
More from Sir Bob.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22788608-12377,00.html
Preferences will play a big role.
Family First, One Nation, Hanson and Citizens for Climate Change all flow to the Liberals. Virtually the only prefernces labor gets are the greens, which explains the libs going them this week.
If labor look like a walkover and people think of voting “independent” then these votes flow straight to the Liberals and makes it close, like what happened with Goss.
408 CL de Footscray - your fugged mate, they’ll never get to you this week, can you imagine the line-up for the broadband version of the death of the rodentocracy! Sorry, but find a TV with ABC and a cask of wine.
Lefty E - its you my friend who speak nonsense.
Awards cover about 20% of the workforce, for many of those people the employer just says what do I have to pay and looks at the award, it discourages skill development and it actually works against the employer or the worker looking at fair pay.
Wage levels are set by markets not unions. Employers pay what they have to pay to attract good people and where they want to position themselves in the marketplace.
Awards are just antiquated rubbish.
Edward StJohn you are right businesses fail to secure good staff because they are stuck to awards and want to pay higher but the Unions wont wear it. It’s happening all over the country employers wanting to pay above the award to secure competent staff but the Unions keep wages stuck to the award. The Unions are a relic of the past and even if KR destroys the ABCC the Unions will be finished its just sad so many of them are in the ALP quite unrepresentative if you ask me.
Mad Cow et al re expats - after a frustrating search (and discounting the UAR version of the GG) I finally found this: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22781049-5014046,00.html
GetUp and Labor have been running enrolment campaigns, but I can’t really find anything firm about the numbers who have responded. Last time, only about 68,000 overseas Australians voted, but there seems to be a suggestion that it will be greater this time. The overall numbers of overseas Australians are much larger, and quite a few are HECS refugees, so I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a bit of a wave of voting. Pity that you can’t vote over the Web, though.
There are much smarter ways to provide fairness and equity for low paid workers whilst having economically responsible IR arrangements.
Sadly the trogs of the ACTU cant see this.
ESJ
you said union workers vs non-union in wage terms
what shows on is suggesting is that workers who are not members of a union but work in a workplace where the union is active, recieve substantially the same benefits that union members in that workplace recieve. This is a disincentive to join.
What ABS figures show is that union members on average recieve higher wages than non-union members- especially amongst women.
The fact is that those non-members in majority unionised workplaces actually drag up the average for the non-union members, but that group is still well behind.
This is why you are going against your party and employer groups in supporting neutrality. they know that workers who orgainse, win!
What the hell are you going on about!? Employers can pay workers double, triple, quadruple the award if they want! The award is the MINIMUM set of wages and conditions that you can legally employ someone under. if you want to give them 99 times the award then you can.
You’re an idiot, blame everything on the unions, including your own ignorance.
I know that Sean, I have seen them. But I wouldn’t write the Coalition off completely yet. 96 this isn’t. I think it will be closer than many think.
Scrapping awards isn’t one of them.
390
Edward StJohn Says:
November 19th, 2007 at 11:40 pm
“…BO Unions speak for about 15% of the private sector workforce and are declining by about 05-1% per annum…They are no longer representative.”
You talk about this from the perspective of an organiser or activist. I just make the observation that a lot of people still join unions, even if the days of mass membership have receded with the years. It is easy to dismiss them as ‘unrepresentative’, ‘weak’ and ‘cycnical’, but it is also just rhetoric. People are strong when they need to be , ESJ, regardless of the labels you might like to apply. And frankly, unless you are willing to join a union or the ALP and argue your case, no-one will take any notice of your prescriptions for them.
Glen
You are sooo full of it mate- you cleary have little to no idea do you?
Employers can pay workers more than the award if they chose fool!
An award is a minimum. Please tell me a case where unions have taken employers to court for paying too much.
You seriously regurgitate the most baseless crap i have ever heard.
were you dropped on the head by a union official when you were a baby?
Not if businesses are set up on Union collective agreements they can’t ShowsOn.
You’re embarassing yourself ESJ.Let me make it simple for you:
Some 25% or workers are unionised, but more like 50% are covered by union negotiated agreements, which are underpinned by awards (free rider problem - but which explains why support for unions is greater than membership)
Of those, 90% are being paid *above* award rates. These are negotiated at workplace level, in EBAs.
Awards are really only a floor for most of the union-covered workforce - only 10% of the lowest skilled are “on awards” alone.
Thats a protection for the low paid the Howard government wants to dismantle. I dont support that, and neither do 55% of Australians.
Sorry but I have actually run small businesses that employ real people so that statement is just rubbish. There’s a lot of reasons why a small business owners would prefer Awards rather than having to negotiate with every employee, etc. Some business would rather not use awards, some would. It depends on your circumstances but to just get rid of awards alltogether is not necessarily helpful.
Lefty E it’s just 15% of private sector workforce the Union movement is finished they are a relic of the past but they are dangerous because the Unions dominate the ALP.
The research on wage bargaining show consistently and clearly that workers covered by union negotiated agreements do consistently better than workers on non-union agreements, whether individual or collective. Employers may pay above award rates to ‘exclude’ unions but the evidence is that these deals tend to minimise the conditions payments that provide workers with relatively predictable extra income - penalties and overtime payments, for example. The whole point of SerfChoices was to fragment bargaining so that wages would tend to be depressed in sectors of, or during periods of, depressed demand for labour, but be relatively restrained because of limited bargaining power by a de-unionised workforce during relatively boom times. It’s the sort of policy that is best introduced in good times, when it’s effects will be less noticeable (although they’re pretty clear to any low skilled worker who’s suffered under an AWA). Which is why Howard must think we’re all pretty damned stupid if he thinks that telling us to vote for him is a good thing because it will mean SerfChoices can never be ditched. I mean, how strange is that? (Almost as strange as appearing on that trash current affairs show tonight, pretending to look like he cares whether Costello lives or dies, i guess … )
BBD,
I have never claimed to be a Liberal (other than in jest).
I dont have a problem with unions organising or neutrality. You just wont be able to do it, sadly your time has passed in our country’s history. I mean that sincerely not in a smart aleck way.
The premises of the organising model is basically class warfare when you strip it away. Its just so backward.
I wish you well with it but unfortunately for the country’s progress the industrial arbitration system has to be removed that will be painful for you but maybe unions will survive in a better form - maybe as friendly societies or co-ops, much like the originals.
Arbitration is a uniquely bastar.dised Australian/New Zealand system.
Glen where is your evidence that businesses want to pay above awards?
What nonsense.
And if some businesses do want to i betcha that other conditions will be reduced in the process.
Talk about selfish crap.
417
Glen Says:
November 19th, 2007 at 11:53 pm
“…sad so many of them are in the ALP quite unrepresentative if you ask me.”
….
Nnd who does ask you, Glen? None but parrott and the peacock, and only then to hear the sound of their own voices….
Thanks for that Jenny. I’m hoping Antony might give that issue a mention on saturday night. By then they should have the numbers.
ESJ. Yes arbitration came in the first decade. The significance of 1912 was that that is the earliest date that the ABS established figures for union membership. Markey and his collaborators (I’m sorry I don’t have the peer-refereed article at hand) did a complex bit of detective work which demolished the previous orthodoxy that the movement had been rebuilt around arbitration.
Harvester (which btw was later overturned on appeal) was 1907 but the vast bulk of workers were not covered by federal arbitration unitl much later.
Anyway, if you want to argue that the unions will not be helped by Rudds policies, that they have to look to organising rather then help from sympathetic Labor governments, then I agree. And I look forward to winessing your comradely elation as mass pickets of newly organised call centre and supermarket workers burn the St John mansion to the ground amidst chants denouncing arbitration.
So, essentially Glen, you’re saying the unions are both irrelevant AND dangerous?
Are you starting to see why the Lib fear campaign is going nowhere?
Mr StJohn (at 416), you have written mostly nonsense about industrial relations law. Until WorkChoices (operative March 2006), awards covered almost all employees; very few were award-free. They set a base line in wages and conditions, which were updated by the AIRC every year. The next level of regulation was EBAs, which because bargaining by unions and groups of employees, wound up covering most enterprises and most employees in them. Where a workplace did not have an EBA, employees tended to rely on the award or use common law contracts of employment that sat above the award ( and usually, an EBA at a comparable enterprise). When AWAs were first introduced in 1997, they were hardly used. This has obviously changed over time but AWAs still make up a small part of the over all industrial instruments used.
The picture has not changed that much since WC. Where there is employee churn, for example in the retail and hospitality sector the picture has changed more because with new employees, employers are taking advantage of the WC options (the AFPCS etc)
Sorry about the essay.
Are you even trying tonight!?
The employer can have an enterprise bargaining agreement written with wages that are HIGHER than the award, they just can’t try and get people to work for wages LOWER than the award.
Provided you understand the difference between HIGHER and LOWER you will realise that what you have said is wrong.
The award is a SAFETY net, a BARE MINIMUM. Unions would LOVE to say to their members that they secured $25 per hour during an E.B.A. negotiation, when the award is $12.50!
Your proposition that unions are trying to keep wages low contradictions all the Liberal propaganda during this election campaign.
Shows ON
As you well know if an award provides for $600 for a 38 hour week it will provide for penalties and O/T. If an employer says look I will give you $700 per week every week but you need to work some O/T unions can come along and say you need to pay O/T and penalties on that.
Secondly as you also know a typical manufacturing business with 20 employees may be covered by 4 or 5 awards all with different conditions.
Thirdly the awards come with arbitration etc etc
Union members do not get higher wages they get capped wages. the ACTU runs this line but its just propaganda. No need to worry about it.
You seem well intentioned get out while you still can!
ESJ, EBAs essentially made arbitration a minor part of the IR system.
Keating did all this reform work ages ago.
Howard’s stuff is just anti-union nastiness, not economic reform.
54-46 is bad but it could be worse it could aways be worse, you think this is tough we tories were behind 53-47 in the last week of the campaign in 1998 and we clung on, we may if we’re lucky hang on on Saturday to discount that possibility will leave you angry and bitter should you be defeated.
A defeat for your side will hurt you more than if our side cops it, i’ve anticipated defeat since early this year as a real possibility so being defeated won’t hurt so bad providing it is not a landslide.
Organising also mean this- but i am sure you could discount that in some wierd way
http://www.workplaceexpress.com.au/news_selected.php?act=2&selkey=35343&hlc=2&hlw=
“There are much smarter ways to provide fairness and equity for low paid workers whilst having economically responsible IR arrangements.”
Yup, like taking whatever is offered, and if you don’t like it leave and find another job. You peasants you!!
That’s a great way to make sure that company profits stay high, and that directors and managers salaries keep getting higher, and shareholders returns stay healthy.
Bit of a shame about employees and their families having no security, and pay they can barely afford to live on, but cant have them getting to comfy or productivity will drop eh???
Its lowlife, selfish, parasites like those that have created and endorsed and encouraged WorkChoices that need to have a really good look at their values. Its one of the most stark expressions of the, “bugger you, i’m right” mentality that has ever been expressed by our nation.
Luckily, it looks like it will be gone before too much more damage is done.
“A defeat for your side will hurt you more than if our side cops it, i’ve anticipated defeat since early this year as a real possibility so being defeated won’t hurt so bad providing it is not a landslide.”
…it’s only a flesh wound.. come back… I can still fight with my toes….
You’re a nihilist.
Fortunately we’ve got lots to show for it wages, conditions, and the social wage, things like Medicare and superannuation.
Democracy is pretty old, should we get rid of that as well?
No, it is going to be great. Because Labor will be able to go to elections in the future completely wedging the Liberals on things like increasing minimum wage and conditions. They’ll do it on maternity leave first most likely.
lEFTY e
If Keating made arbitration such a minor part of the system why do we have a $200 million dollar arbitration apparatus in this country?
My point is you can give people fairness in a much smarter way than arbitration, set a minimum wage, some other minimum conditions and introduce a negative income tax - everyone is better off.
Glen,
Are you sure of that???
Trust me, Glen: it’ll still hurt, landslide or otherwise.
We know - lots of practice at it since ‘96.
But thats democracy.
ESJ
So you are saying US workers are better off than Australian workers?
they have that system you are suggesting.
Jenny @ 299. Sorry for the delay, I had to go out. I can’t remember what Schultz said in his add, it didn’t sink in. I was just surprised at his appearance.
I don’t know how loyal he is to JWH. Not very, I surmise. My opinion of him is that he has the loyalty of a goldfish. You feed him, he’s yours. He also has the intelligence of a goldfish, and the charm of a tiger snake on a bad day!
And having been too slow in typing the above, I agree with Lefty E, with one caveat: the free rider problem has been around almost since the start of arbitration, because High Court judgments limited the capacity of unions to seek awards which did not cover non-members (I can’t remember the judgment names at this time o’ night). So the real historical issue is whether the decline in membership can be attributed in a statistically significant way to the introduction of enterprise level bargaining, or something else.
Paul if Labor loses = you’ve been expecting to win since last year.
If Coalition loses = out of office everywhere but ive been anticipating defeat so it wont hurt so bad.
All unions would be banned under my leadership. muahahaha
VoterBoy (or can I call you VB?), that Eva Braun/Hycanith crack was my best laugh all night!
By the way, can I ask which electorate you’re in over here?
Shows On etal, Its no use arguing with social darwinists over workplace coditions.
me, I have no expectations of Rudd should he win, I am what I am, a rusted on Howard hater, I want to see
Him lose his seat after 3 days on postal vote distribution (the Ratsak end)
I want to see his party annihilated,
I want to see his budgie annihilated
I want to see his cat annihilated….
I wont be leaving the house for any party Saturday night before Dr Kerry calls the libs stone cold dead all stretched out in white on the slab in the St James infirmary, and if that hasn’t happened before ten pm when my cat usually comes in….
Come Sunday morning should my wishes be fulfilled instead of Gino’s I’ll take a breakfast down out the North Cott cafe and enjoy marmalade on my toast and listen to the wailing and weeping, I’m not a fussy man but I do like marmalade on my toast..
Under your leadership Australia would go into Depression anyway.
No 455
The world has always been about survival of the fittest.
Well, again, as we were noting the other day: the only lasting significance of the Howard era, IR wise, will be the High Court decision on the Corporations power.
Now, its pretty much all down to the Federal government to determine the IR landscpae legislatively (excepting non-corporate employers, and a few state government employees, or about 15% of employees, tops and even they can be referred from State powers).
I too would love to know what a ‘house effect’ is
No 457
Only communist thought would be suppressed.
Only five more sleeps …
No BBD not the US model.
We need a new model for politics in Australia and a new model to provide fairness and efficiency in the workplace - what the ACTU has blown is the chance to create it - you will get WorkChoices one way or the other (it will just be with neglect from Rudd rather than malice from Howard).
Glen,
Not me personally but some have. It would be disappointing but just means we’d go back to the two term strategy. Costello will be easy to beat in 2010.
“Edward StJohn Says:
November 20th, 2007 at 12:02 am
Shows ON
As you well know if an award provides for $600 for a 38 hour week it will provide for penalties and O/T. If an employer says look I will give you $700 per week every week but you need to work some O/T unions can come along and say you need to pay O/T and penalties on that.”
LOL!!! What benefit is it to the boss is it paying you $700 instead of $600 with overtime.
Explain Here:
No 462
Five more sleeps until the decimation of the union movement.
What the papers say. Delroy.
Oz: Howard Govt suppresses future scenario, Work Choices. New wave of Work Choice changes.
FOI, July 2005. Not sure by whom, not caught, maybe ABC. Seven is appealing.
LaborVoter,
If you cant answer that question yourself then I cant help you. Paul K as a small businessman could?
451 Keepingalidonit
The deciline in union membership is ulitimatley the fault of unions themsleves. Although some have declined in membership in a way that correlates to the decline in their industry, others do not have that excuse.
The removal of arbital powers, or the introduction of enterprise bargaining or even the introduction of anti-union governments may have contributed to the decline initially, but the responsability for these changing environments is soley placed at the feet of the union leadership.
This generation is at risk of handing work conditions to our children that are less than we inherited, but we have already handed them less power in the workplace.
The unions can’t be that irrelevant if they can organise a campaign like Ýour Rights at Work, which is the main reason Howard was well behind even before Rudd emerged. We’re coming back Glen, we’re coming back!
You’ve managed to offend the part of the Australian psyche that couldn’t be arsed joining a union but is glad they’re there. Workchoices made Australians imagine a workplace without principles, rights, unions, awards etc, it scared them, and it made them see Howard for what he had always been.
These polls are all very well but once people start to focus on the new welfare for drugs policy, the polls will not just tighten but even reverse.
Whatever happend to that drugs for welfare vouchers policy released yesterday by the PM? Is anyone listening..anyone there…hello..this is the Prime Minister speaking…hello…hello
This is still an open contest. Polls are indicative - they’re not necessarily prophecies. I wouldn’t bet my life on them!
Edward StJohn, what time does your Liberal party branch close tonight? Surely you’ve used up all your bandwidth for the month trolling progressive sites like this one.
Yes I agree with you for once. Your LOSS is so much better than anyone elses!
Go Glen!!!
No I want you to tell me.
Explain here:
Mike C re Alby – love the description. The reptilian charm of the bourgeoisie, eh?
Back to the marking (sigh).
Does anyone know (or have a reaosnable theory about) why Howard would say (as he did today) that if he were re-elected WorkChoices would be irremovable? It doesn’t make a lot of sense, unless he HAS gone mad.
A substantiated bias in sampling & weighting techniques towards a particular party, eg Morgan always favours ALP by approx 2%.
Actually that’s not really true. Scientists are now coming to understand that humans have been able to dominate the planet due to our ability to help each other and organise, etc. A tribe co-operating together can kill more Woolly Mammoths than a strong individual acting alone. Empires are built by those able to organise and act as a team no matter how weak the individuals, it’s the fittest individuals who are the conquered.
463
efficiency and productivity growth have plummitted under the Howard IR reforms- FACT
productivity growth has dropped 50% we have gone from being about 40% above OECD average to 16% below it.
IR reforms have resulted in employers opting for wage cutting as oppose to productivity improvements.
Howards IR reforms have left the ecconomy less competative and more vulnerable for the longer term. Decreasing investment in relative terms in the fields of skills, education and research and development have heightened this problem.
What the Papers Say.
Frank Calabrese.
Abortion Pill, RU486, approved by State Government.
Kunnunurra, Ord.
Hemp to be a goer. Not the heady kind.
460
mad cow Says:
November 20th, 2007 at 12:11 am
“….I too would love to know what a ‘house effect’ is..”
….
could it be like a “flat effect” or “caravan& boat effect”?
# 407 Edward StJohn Says: November 19th, 2007 at 11:48 pm
no-ones stopping you from having a common-law contract. Keep talking about workchoices though… the longer it is on peoples minds, the more we continue to understand why the libs are on a one way ticket to oblivion.
George
I am sorry I didnt know this had been declared a “progressive blog”?
Ill put you down in the dont disturb with independent thought category comrade
Jenny @ 476 - the secret to finishing off the marking is NOT to dip into PB. It’s that simple! Now all i have to do is catch up on everything else …
Hey jihadze. Up late I see!
“454
Kirribilli Removals Says:
November 20th, 2007 at 12:10 am
VoterBoy (or can I call you VB?), that Eva Braun/Hycanith crack was my best laugh all night!
By the way, can I ask which electorate you’re in over here?”
I was in Higgins, but I’m no longer enrolled, alas. Let’s hope it doesn’t come down to a couple of votes. Could be worse, though. When I lived in Sydernee, I was in Wentworth - a far more realistic option. (Although as an ex-ARM member and Goldman Sachs staffer I do have a soft spot for Malcolm - still, one must be hard-headed about these things.)
HERE WE GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
AUSTRALIA’s former top Middle East trade official has broken his silence on AWB’s kickbacks to Iraq, saying the Howard Government’s claim it was unaware of key elements of the scandal is unbelievable.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/downer-knew-about-awb-kickbacks/2007/11/19/1195321695303.html
thanks letitend
I mean, for Frank’s attention.
PI,
Have you ever thought that WorkChoices might actually just be preaching to the converted, ie just labor union voters who were going to vote Labor anyway getting excited
?
howard hater reg no 1726003 @ 456:
You better go down there with your wooden stake and hammer after that just to make sure and to finish of the remainder of the living dead that comprise Howard’s Cabinet.
482 - I’m hoping Galaxy will come out with a new Gazebo effect in time for next Saturday …
Just in time. Another nail?
Crikey, I would advise switching to WPA. WEP can be broken very easily by eavesdroppers in the know.
Hmm.. In that case I can’t think of a reason why the ‘house effect’ isn’t in itself variable and dependent on factors like the extent to which the electorate is polarised and the month to month issues that might affect minor party votes.
Still a simple weighted average is better than nothing I guess.
oooo, did poor wittle Edward StJohn get all upset and have a cwy. Maybe the adults at Liberal HQ can give you a wittle tissue to blow you nosy-wasy with.
493
CL de Footscray Says:
November 20th, 2007 at 12:22 am
482 - I’m hoping Galaxy will come out with a new Gazebo effect in time for next Saturday …
lol….i’ll be happy with a bbq and beer effect…
Red wombat: Ah more rats leaving the ship and ratting on Great King Rat. Noice! Still I think there is no silver bullet, just heaps of normal ones.