Sky News reveals tomorrow’s Newspoll will show Labor leading 54-46; primary vote Labor 46 per cent (down two points), Coalition 41 per cent (up one). Details to follow.
UPDATE: Preliminary article at The Australian.
UPDATE 2: The Australian’s graphic here.
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And having been too slow in typing the above, I agree with Lefty E, with one caveat: the free rider problem has been around almost since the start of arbitration, because High Court judgments limited the capacity of unions to seek awards which did not cover non-members (I can’t remember the judgment names at this time o’ night). So the real historical issue is whether the decline in membership can be attributed in a statistically significant way to the introduction of enterprise level bargaining, or something else.
Paul if Labor loses = you’ve been expecting to win since last year.
If Coalition loses = out of office everywhere but ive been anticipating defeat so it wont hurt so bad.
All unions would be banned under my leadership. muahahaha
VoterBoy (or can I call you VB?), that Eva Braun/Hycanith crack was my best laugh all night!
By the way, can I ask which electorate you’re in over here?
Shows On etal, Its no use arguing with social darwinists over workplace coditions.
me, I have no expectations of Rudd should he win, I am what I am, a rusted on Howard hater, I want to see
Him lose his seat after 3 days on postal vote distribution (the Ratsak end)
I want to see his party annihilated,
I want to see his budgie annihilated
I want to see his cat annihilated….
I wont be leaving the house for any party Saturday night before Dr Kerry calls the libs stone cold dead all stretched out in white on the slab in the St James infirmary, and if that hasn’t happened before ten pm when my cat usually comes in….
Come Sunday morning should my wishes be fulfilled instead of Gino’s I’ll take a breakfast down out the North Cott cafe and enjoy marmalade on my toast and listen to the wailing and weeping, I’m not a fussy man but I do like marmalade on my toast..
Under your leadership Australia would go into Depression anyway.
No 455
The world has always been about survival of the fittest.
Well, again, as we were noting the other day: the only lasting significance of the Howard era, IR wise, will be the High Court decision on the Corporations power.
Now, its pretty much all down to the Federal government to determine the IR landscpae legislatively (excepting non-corporate employers, and a few state government employees, or about 15% of employees, tops and even they can be referred from State powers).
I too would love to know what a ‘house effect’ is
No 457
Only communist thought would be suppressed.
Only five more sleeps …
No BBD not the US model.
We need a new model for politics in Australia and a new model to provide fairness and efficiency in the workplace - what the ACTU has blown is the chance to create it - you will get WorkChoices one way or the other (it will just be with neglect from Rudd rather than malice from Howard).
Glen,
Not me personally but some have. It would be disappointing but just means we’d go back to the two term strategy. Costello will be easy to beat in 2010.
“Edward StJohn Says:
November 20th, 2007 at 12:02 am
Shows ON
As you well know if an award provides for $600 for a 38 hour week it will provide for penalties and O/T. If an employer says look I will give you $700 per week every week but you need to work some O/T unions can come along and say you need to pay O/T and penalties on that.”
LOL!!! What benefit is it to the boss is it paying you $700 instead of $600 with overtime.
Explain Here:
No 462
Five more sleeps until the decimation of the union movement.
What the papers say. Delroy.
Oz: Howard Govt suppresses future scenario, Work Choices. New wave of Work Choice changes.
FOI, July 2005. Not sure by whom, not caught, maybe ABC. Seven is appealing.
LaborVoter,
If you cant answer that question yourself then I cant help you. Paul K as a small businessman could?
451 Keepingalidonit
The deciline in union membership is ulitimatley the fault of unions themsleves. Although some have declined in membership in a way that correlates to the decline in their industry, others do not have that excuse.
The removal of arbital powers, or the introduction of enterprise bargaining or even the introduction of anti-union governments may have contributed to the decline initially, but the responsability for these changing environments is soley placed at the feet of the union leadership.
This generation is at risk of handing work conditions to our children that are less than we inherited, but we have already handed them less power in the workplace.
The unions can’t be that irrelevant if they can organise a campaign like Ýour Rights at Work, which is the main reason Howard was well behind even before Rudd emerged. We’re coming back Glen, we’re coming back!
You’ve managed to offend the part of the Australian psyche that couldn’t be arsed joining a union but is glad they’re there. Workchoices made Australians imagine a workplace without principles, rights, unions, awards etc, it scared them, and it made them see Howard for what he had always been.
These polls are all very well but once people start to focus on the new welfare for drugs policy, the polls will not just tighten but even reverse.
Whatever happend to that drugs for welfare vouchers policy released yesterday by the PM? Is anyone listening..anyone there…hello..this is the Prime Minister speaking…hello…hello
This is still an open contest. Polls are indicative - they’re not necessarily prophecies. I wouldn’t bet my life on them!
Edward StJohn, what time does your Liberal party branch close tonight? Surely you’ve used up all your bandwidth for the month trolling progressive sites like this one.
Yes I agree with you for once. Your LOSS is so much better than anyone elses!
Go Glen!!!
No I want you to tell me.
Explain here:
Mike C re Alby – love the description. The reptilian charm of the bourgeoisie, eh?
Back to the marking (sigh).
Does anyone know (or have a reaosnable theory about) why Howard would say (as he did today) that if he were re-elected WorkChoices would be irremovable? It doesn’t make a lot of sense, unless he HAS gone mad.
A substantiated bias in sampling & weighting techniques towards a particular party, eg Morgan always favours ALP by approx 2%.
Actually that’s not really true. Scientists are now coming to understand that humans have been able to dominate the planet due to our ability to help each other and organise, etc. A tribe co-operating together can kill more Woolly Mammoths than a strong individual acting alone. Empires are built by those able to organise and act as a team no matter how weak the individuals, it’s the fittest individuals who are the conquered.
463
efficiency and productivity growth have plummitted under the Howard IR reforms- FACT
productivity growth has dropped 50% we have gone from being about 40% above OECD average to 16% below it.
IR reforms have resulted in employers opting for wage cutting as oppose to productivity improvements.
Howards IR reforms have left the ecconomy less competative and more vulnerable for the longer term. Decreasing investment in relative terms in the fields of skills, education and research and development have heightened this problem.
What the Papers Say.
Frank Calabrese.
Abortion Pill, RU486, approved by State Government.
Kunnunurra, Ord.
Hemp to be a goer. Not the heady kind.
460
mad cow Says:
November 20th, 2007 at 12:11 am
“….I too would love to know what a ‘house effect’ is..”
….
could it be like a “flat effect” or “caravan& boat effect”?
# 407 Edward StJohn Says: November 19th, 2007 at 11:48 pm
no-ones stopping you from having a common-law contract. Keep talking about workchoices though… the longer it is on peoples minds, the more we continue to understand why the libs are on a one way ticket to oblivion.
George
I am sorry I didnt know this had been declared a “progressive blog”?
Ill put you down in the dont disturb with independent thought category comrade
Jenny @ 476 - the secret to finishing off the marking is NOT to dip into PB. It’s that simple! Now all i have to do is catch up on everything else …
Hey jihadze. Up late I see!
“454
Kirribilli Removals Says:
November 20th, 2007 at 12:10 am
VoterBoy (or can I call you VB?), that Eva Braun/Hycanith crack was my best laugh all night!
By the way, can I ask which electorate you’re in over here?”
I was in Higgins, but I’m no longer enrolled, alas. Let’s hope it doesn’t come down to a couple of votes. Could be worse, though. When I lived in Sydernee, I was in Wentworth - a far more realistic option. (Although as an ex-ARM member and Goldman Sachs staffer I do have a soft spot for Malcolm - still, one must be hard-headed about these things.)
HERE WE GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
AUSTRALIA’s former top Middle East trade official has broken his silence on AWB’s kickbacks to Iraq, saying the Howard Government’s claim it was unaware of key elements of the scandal is unbelievable.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/downer-knew-about-awb-kickbacks/2007/11/19/1195321695303.html
thanks letitend
I mean, for Frank’s attention.
PI,
Have you ever thought that WorkChoices might actually just be preaching to the converted, ie just labor union voters who were going to vote Labor anyway getting excited
?
howard hater reg no 1726003 @ 456:
You better go down there with your wooden stake and hammer after that just to make sure and to finish of the remainder of the living dead that comprise Howard’s Cabinet.
482 - I’m hoping Galaxy will come out with a new Gazebo effect in time for next Saturday …
Just in time. Another nail?
Crikey, I would advise switching to WPA. WEP can be broken very easily by eavesdroppers in the know.
Hmm.. In that case I can’t think of a reason why the ‘house effect’ isn’t in itself variable and dependent on factors like the extent to which the electorate is polarised and the month to month issues that might affect minor party votes.
Still a simple weighted average is better than nothing I guess.
oooo, did poor wittle Edward StJohn get all upset and have a cwy. Maybe the adults at Liberal HQ can give you a wittle tissue to blow you nosy-wasy with.
493
CL de Footscray Says:
November 20th, 2007 at 12:22 am
482 - I’m hoping Galaxy will come out with a new Gazebo effect in time for next Saturday …
lol….i’ll be happy with a bbq and beer effect…
Red wombat: Ah more rats leaving the ship and ratting on Great King Rat. Noice! Still I think there is no silver bullet, just heaps of normal ones.
491 Edward StJohn Says: November 20th, 2007 at 12:22 am
Keep talking about it, and let’s find out. It’s a dog, and it is going to be the end of the libs as a governing power in Australia.
We’ve got to make sure that NO-ONE forgets it, and any person that swings by the site is left in no doubt as to what’s at stake.
Libs = workchoices. Even the government hates mentioning the name now.
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