Sky News reveals tomorrow’s Newspoll will show Labor leading 54-46; primary vote Labor 46 per cent (down two points), Coalition 41 per cent (up one). Details to follow.
UPDATE: Preliminary article at The Australian.
UPDATE 2: The Australian’s graphic here.
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697 Comments
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red wombat Says: “HERE WE GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
AUSTRALIA’s former top Middle East trade official has broken his silence on AWB’s kickbacks to Iraq, saying the Howard Government’s claim it was unaware of key elements of the scandal is unbelievable.”
yep, it’s happened a day or two early, but there will be plenty more from those who are now confident this corrupt government is on its way out and can speak out.
VoterBoy – I think Turnbull-gate tonight (the $11 mil to his mate for crazy electric rain machine thing) may finish off your old ARM buddy. Just as AWB-gate, WorkChoices Mark II FOI-gate, and Debnam-gate may provide the final wooden stake for his party. But i am an optimist.
Re my 467. I suppose, on reflection, the FOI must have been the Oz.
Seven is appealing against, I guess. Not necessarily appealing.
If Brian Burke was immaterial, then so is the crap about AWB, Turnbull and Debnam.
#435 Robert Bollart – [but the vast bulk of workers were not covered by federal arbitration unitl much later] wrong wrong wrong – you forget state awards and decisions. The picture is more complex by faaaar.
Oh… and EsJ, I’m neither a union member (and never have been), nor an ALP member (and never have been).
What, you mean you don’t believe they can make rain out of nothing?
And from dear Malcolm Fraser
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/voting-to-restore-the-values-we-once-held-dear/2007/11/19/1195321692334.html
496
mad cow Says:
November 20th, 2007 at 12:23 am
Hmm..
…
In Morgan’s case, they attribute the effect to the age of the interviewers – all young and bright-eyed, they elicit a bias in favour of Labor. Make of it what you will.
gotta go….bye for now
Hm…Hm… back to this poll. I think Bryan Palmer’s rule of thumb makes an aweful lot of sense
http://www.ozpolitics.info/guide/elections/fed2007/polls2007/#coalition
It has often been argued here that the primary vote is more acurately measured by the polls and the TPP suffers from further inaccuracy because it is derived. Given the usual number and distribution of “others” Palmer argues that for the coalition to be COMPETATIVE their primary vote needs to 42% or greater, while for Labor to be competative it needs to crack 40%. Today’s figures are 41 and 46. Bryan’s graphs show a 10 month history of the Liberals at 39-42 and averaging about 40. They still have a little ground to make up in the next 5 days to even get onto the oval.
Ha!
E Swinejohn, Glug and Generic Pratt really have seized the agenda here – sad that a quality blog like this ends up with the usual pathetic debate.
No-one here is on minimum wage. It is disingenuous in the extreme to pretend that SerfChoices affects any one of us. However, some of us give a fu*k about other people and are willing to accept restrictions on our “market power” in order to restrain the worst elements of capitalism.
And, what’s worse is GP used decimation in the pop sense – you total pratt look it up!
Is anyone willing to go on the record and name a seat where the local Your Rights at Work campaign will be the difference between Liberal retain and Labor gain?
Why am i not surprised that article originated from The Age?
That left wing rag is a joke, that’s why i read the Hun and the Australian.
wow that AWB article is too mouch to handle
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/downer-knew-about-awb-kickbacks/2007/11/19/1
the AWB will take the light off the enviroment report from the UN,
which will take the light off abott gaff mkII,
which will take the light off Regional roryts,
which will take the light off the advertising blow-out,
that will take the light of ‘workchoices will last forever if we get back in’,
which will takle the light off ‘we should have signed kyoto’
which will umm……..i think it s all over Libsters
>blckquote>Edward StJohn Says:
November 20th, 2007 at 12:22 am
Have you ever thought that WorkChoices might actually just be preaching to the converted, ie just labor union voters
Nope, not that naive or insular. 55% tpp to me seems to account for a hell of a lot more than the 20% union members.
Actually I have never been a member of any union, ever, nor will I ever have to worry about workchoices. But I’m mightily pissed off over my kids (all uni students) being rorted by it in their part time jobs.
Grazie, Dario at 495.
Generic Person Says: “If Brian Burke was immaterial, then so is the crap about AWB, Turnbull and Debnam.”
your mob bribes Saddam with $300Million and it’s “crap”? Love it – keep talking like that, it will do wonders for the Liberals. In fact, the rodent should just come out and say that this is how you do business and we should all just live with it. So there! What a joke the Liberal party has become. If a million Iraqis hadn’t died then the WB scandal would also be a joke.
ESJ at 491 Workchoices stopped people feeling relaxed and comfortable. the anger about workchoices is the opposite of radicalism or some lefty/socialist thing. Howard put his own radicalism over his political instincts and is paying the price.
Hi lefty E – love your work.
“That left wing rag is a joke, that’s why i read the Hun”
glen, stop embarrassing yourself.
Thats big news Red Wombat – another Rodent day wasted fending off allegations.
Only 5 more sleeps till Howard’s 830pm concession of defeat!
503 – Perhaps. But it’s not exactly going to generate the ‘traction’ effect, is it?
To continue the bunker analogy, I’m keen on the night of the long knives effect. I wonder whether Newspoll will arrange that one? Maybe we could have a new question on which Lib will spit the dummy first on national TV. I’m barracking for Kroger, but Downer might go for it. He’s had a lot of practice of late.
Work Choice new wave just reported on ABC Radio.
Well that proves the Howard Government were out and out liars on AWB. What a wonderful chicken to come home at this time.
I suspect Downer is right now rolling around on the ground eating dirt.
nath don’t selectively cut my quotes, if you are going to quote me quote me in full that’s all i ask!
Read it and weep precious.
Possum, are you still pumping for 55/45? I am, based on your analysis.
Don’t forget to delouse after reading them.
Howard on Costello: “we don’t agree on everything, I mean he barracks for the Essendon Bombers, I barrack for the St George Illawarra Dragons…”
Um, different sports old man.
Yes but even voters who hate the Government don’t think it is incompetent.
They only think that this Govt was NEGLIGENT in their duty on AWB. That’s all.
What’s $300 between friends anyway. Even if those friends are Dictators who hide WMD and need to be attacked.
My prediction is still lookin good….
My prediction…
Primaries
ALP 47.0
LNP 41.0
GRN 8.0
Other 4.0
TPP
54.5 / 45.5
Swing ~7.5
State Swings
NSW 6
Vic 8
QLD 11
SA 11
WA 2
Tas 4
ACT 6
NT 3
Seats
ALP 97
LNP 51
Other 2
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=state&national=0&nsw=6&vic=8&qld=11&wa=2&sa=11&tas=4&act=6&nt=3&retiringfactor=1
“that this is how you do business and we should all just live with it”
Good idea George – having Howard explain that we funded Saddam Hussein’s regime with bribes so they could tool up Sunni insurgents to kill US, UK and Au troops should be just the trick to reverse his flagging electoral fortunes.
I assume you’re on Loughnane’s staff.
Approved – proceed
507 – Paul K – yes, I confess to a tragic sort of scepticism. But I guess if he was a mate of Malcolm’s it’s okay … after all, he’s helping out on the campaign. It’s only taxpayers’ money, after all.
“513
Glen Says:
November 20th, 2007 at 12:29 am
Why am i not surprised that article originated from The Age?
That left wing rag is a joke, that’s why i read the Hun and the Australian.”
It didn’t originate from The Age, you mule. It originated from the pen of a former Liberal Prime Minister, who is saying that the Howard Liberal Party stinks and that people should vote Labor.
My god this election is going to be a belter…
VB, did you catch the story about Malcolm tonight? It was only on Red Kezza’s 7.30 Report, and has not yet hit the press (they’re probably waiting to get it ‘legalled’, in case Malcolm starts throwing his weight around)?
Essentially, Turnbull made a ‘research grant’ of $10m to a crazy outfit to make rain from nothing, and the major shareholder is Matt Hanbury, who also is a contributor to Turnbull’s electoral chances via the aptly named “Wentworth Group”.
Ooh, Malcolm! Just wait for the Greens and Labor to get their teeth into that juicy little act!
glen, why not embrace all three papers as part of the rich diversity of opinion.
Experts – official party adds blocked as of Wed? Does this mean TampaII on Thurs?
Because the Age is a joke, why should i bother paying for that socialist clap trap when you all post me the links on poll bludger.
Serenity Now…
I can turn beer into piss, I think I’ll apply for a Turnbull grant.
lets test two theories that have been discussed on this blog side by side.
Speaking for the narrowing can be Glen and ESJ
Speaking for the Lib/Nat final week implosion can be everyone else
OK now who are the people who know about the SIEV X – time to reveal all
Brian Burke had the Labor party in his pocket. The AWB scandal is immaterial and a non-issue, in the same sense that Mad Ack’s Heiner affair garbage is nonsense.
Kirribilli Removals, saw that too on 7:30 Report – there should be some fun had with it throughout the week.
So much the Libs have offered the Labor party to choose from in the final week of the campaign! Oh the humanity!
Is it coming home to rooste season or something?
GP – you cheap equation of AWB and Brian Burke only help to illustrate your desperation – next please!
Knowing Turnbull he probably forgot to get cabinet approval for the grant.
Does anyone know if Tobin Brothers pay a spotters fee? I think they’re going to be busy Sunday
Glen is right on sour that grapes Age. That colour writer Caroline Overington won a Walkley on AWB and works for The Oz. So there.
The Age are just jealous she does not write for them anymore. The paper has gone to the dogs since she left for the Oz…
Glen is discerning when it comes to quality journalism..
Is anyone seriously suggesting the story that “Downer knew of AWB bribes to Saddam Hussein” is going to make no impact tomorrow?
Again, loss of momentum. Time running out.
GP,
You haven’t gotten anything right about the campaign so far so I think we can safely ignore your opinion again.
547
Overington is a Hack Rag
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