Sky News reveals tomorrow’s Newspoll will show Labor leading 54-46; primary vote Labor 46 per cent (down two points), Coalition 41 per cent (up one). Details to follow.
UPDATE: Preliminary article at The Australian.
UPDATE 2: The Australian’s graphic here.
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697 Comments
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The only way Howard can win from here is remind voters that if the Coalition is returned WorkChoices will never be able to be removed. Then it’s curtains for Labor!
MUHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Please, Toby, please….God i’m a saddo….hello, everyone!
Ok, time for my own prediction: 84 seats, a swing of 6.3% according to Antony’s calculator. And Bennelong, Wentworth both going down.
Grooski 54- look at your figures. There is a 2.5% chance (1 in 40) that Rodent will get 51.7%. So you’re betting on a 40 to 1 chance and saying its going to win. I like that logic!
True but still id rather be at 54-46 than 57-43 and you’d rather be at 57-43 than 54-46.
Rudd needs at least 53-47 to win, if it goes below that figure it’s a toss up. But i hardly think you would be happy with this poll considering you’d rather the election result over now. Still it’s not good for the tories but it could be worse, for Labor they’ve had a good week and gone down, maybe the undecideds are starting to tune into Team Howie.
Shows on, I agree, but I think the Rove thing goes beyond the young vote. People have been curious about Rudd and I think him appearing quite human on Rove will remove some of the concerns they had about him being fake. They’ll still see him as being a little bit fake, but not in a bad way. The headlines today following Rove won’t hurt either.
Hey Toby, seriously don’t tease us like that
Now I have keep on the site…..
Seems to me that 54 is the new “floor” for the ALP vote. A few months ago it was more like 56-57. Since then we appear to have dropped 2-3% of ALP flirters, but there’s a solid 54% or so locked in. I can’t see the ALP getting any less than 52% on Saturday, and most likely somewhere in the range 53-54.
Toby?
Is this the narrowing? If Labor gets more than 52% I’ll shout the bar. Rudd by 4 seats?
Glen,
How did 53/47 suddenly become the winning figure? First, Labor needed to get 51% of the vote to win. Then it became 52%. Suddenly, with 5 days to go, you’re claiming it’s 53%. May I remind you that JWH did NOT get 53% of the vote in 2004!
As they say in the Castle, “tell him he’s dreamin…”
This isn’t the only poll this week; we also have a Morgan ph poll that had it at 55.5-44.5 Labor, so that gives verification. There will be no more national polls until the last two days of the election, when all 4 pollsters will release final polls.
Nothing new. The polls have been at this level for 5 weeks, with the exception of the odd 58:42 survey. How on earth Glen and his mates can get excited and confidently predict a Howard victory from this is beyond me, but stranger things have happened, I guess.
The Liberal advertising is awful! I swear I’ve seen that Union bosses ad 30 times tonight! Bring on Wednesday and the advertising blackout, at least on TV.
The polls are so consistent and so much in agreement (except Morgan) that I think you can forget about the MOE considerations. I don’t think the “real underlying” survey result is anywhere near as low as, say, 51% for Labor.
Also don’t see any Liberal “rabbits” having a significant impact in the last week. And presumably Rudd won’t come out and announce that he’s going to increase GST to 15%, or that he and Swan have been secret lovers since high school (not that there’s anything …)
There could (I assume) be a modest effect due to people who will actually vote for Howard, but find the idea so uncool that they can’t acknowledge it to themselves or to a pollster. But based on previous elections this couldn’t be more than 1% at the absolute most, could it?
Toby??????????
46/41 and 13% Others.
7%? Greens @ 75% – 5.25%
6%? Others @ 60% – 3.6%
This would be much closer 55/45
No more Monday newspolls between now and the real thing people… all this bickering about what it means will cease. How exciting!!
No wonder Howard is getting hit in the polls when the only questions to him put during his media conference were about divisions in the Liberals and Kyoto and the like nothing positive, meanwhile Rudd get’s a dorothy dixer about political spin doctors.
The media are a disgrace, they’ll be a prime culprit for electing Rudd if it happens on Saturday.
the workchoices mark 2 story will do em in. what about turnbull giving $10 mill to a guy who can make it rain by ionising water particles… just happens someone in the recipient company does campaign fund raising for him. all signed off after caretaker mode had come into play. lots of questions to answer there.
115
SirEggo Says:
November 19th, 2007 at 10:16 pm
Toby??????????
Please don’t bite at these things… it only encourages them
Ashley @ 108 – I reckon it all depends on how they’re counting the flow of preferences. It seems clear that the Greens vote is going to be higher this year – particular in some interesting marginal electorates – and I’m getting the feeling that the TPP vote is actually 55-56. I reckon this is why one of Rudd’s big statements – repeated at every opportunity over the last several days – is that he’ll sign Kyoto as soon as elected. He’s sewing up Greens preferences…
TOBY!!!!!!!!!!!!
Not that I’m desparate or anything, LOL
Luke: 46% primary?
Bad for the ALP?? Please, it’s a guarranteed win.
I admit 47% would be better (duh). But I’ll bet ALP down 2; Greens up 1.
I’ll take that.
At the last election the same Newspoll was 50.5 for the Coalition and 49.5 for Labor.
Final reasult – 52.8 coalition 47.2 Labor.
Glen: “The media are a disgrace, they’ll be a prime culprit for electing Rudd if it happens on Saturday.”
Yeah, that’s right Glen, they’ve been against Howard all these past 11 years, haven’t they?
OK, I’ll stop biting
Wish he didn’t do that…….
Do you guys know what this poll (or any other for that matter) are telling you? Simply that in 19 out of EVERY 20 cases of the poll done on the same day with the same sample, it shows the national distribution of ALP TPP currently between 51.3 and 56.7. Fact. No trend line analysis, no regression analysis.
Yes, I am aware that trends over the month have shown consistently high Labor TPP and that Labor will likely win by a 8-10 majority come Saturday. It is, however, not in the realms of impossibility also that a hung parliament ensues on Sat/Sun
I am only stating this to cut down on the inane “game over” drivel that is being sprouted by the people on the blog. I for one, believe it will be close.
Grog – yep too many polls at the moment.
54/46 in the marginals 54/46 overall – I’m starting to feel a bit more hopefull that Rudd will snag a few in Victoria.
Dear Toby this time on Saturday I will have all the Liberal and Labor polling I would ever want!!
VBotW – here you go unfortunately it’s an hour long, and I wouldn’t advise looking at Denis, he’s looking like the binge-eating love-child of Ritchie Benaud and Lillian Frank….. it was playing on loop when I looked last – but Newpoll result is at the end of the hour
http://www.news.com.au/live/popup/
Anyone seen a Lateline promo? Might be a meltdown chance, say if Andrew and Gerard are on?
If it had been 52-48 or 53-47 it would could be perceived as a comeback or a narrowing to the average joe, but 54 from Newspoll sounds rock solid and puts it out of reach, it starts to approach a tipping point where people start to jump ship.
I love it when Glen calls me and my fellow journalistic fellow-travellers ‘a disgrace’. Makes me feel all gooey inside.
Glen will love reading this article from a Human Resources website.
It explains some of the larger swings- there is a campaign like this in North Sydney due to Joes Portfollio too.
http://www.workplaceexpress.com.au/news_selected.php?act=2&selkey=35343&hlc=2&hlw=
I think this is simply no change – the TPP is 54+
Once again a balanced analysis by people from both sides of the political spectrum.
Saturday can’t come soon enough. I miss discussion.
Will Newspoll do a poll next Monday?
Poor Dennis – last wekk when labor went up to 55, it was within the MOE and not significant (true). Now they’ve gone to 54 and the Coalition is definately closing the gap.
I’m sure there’s some logic there somewhere. I just can’t find it, that’s all.
The best part about this poll is it’s a non-story. Which means the papers can focus on:
The climate change report,
The secret Work Choices changes
Howard saying you’ll be stuck with work choices
Abbott, Costello and Turnbull hating each other
and
the exceeding monotonous likelihood that the ALP will win so lets look for more stories about the Libs at War.
Dear Bludgers, the coalitions campaign has possibly been the worst I have ever seen in my 58 years of observing these things. Please see Possums site for relevant analysis, before going all over the place in terms of your response. Despite some out there possibilities posed by TLet there Etc., a TPP of 54%, is going to deliver victory to Labor, barring some very unusual electoral behaviour.
137 Burgey – post of the night! rotflmao
Tony’s on LL with Bob Brown to discuss Greens polling.
Glen: “Rudd needs at least 53-47 to win, if it goes below that figure it’s a toss up.”
Where did you get this from? You’re just making it up as you go along.
Even according to Antony Green’s calculator, 51.6% takes Labor over the line. 53, and Labor’s got 82 seats.
As they say in The Castle: “Get your hand off it.”
I never said we were a lock to win this election based on being 8 points behind, all i am saying is that it is possible for the tories to win, it mightn’t be likely but it is possible.
Or have you considered that Deputy Dawg could be PM in less than a weeks time if Howie loses Bennelong and the tories scrape home?
As I have consistently said:
1) Coalition victory with 150 seat total majority
2) Coalition victory with 1 seat majority
And now for a new one:
1) Kevin Rudd victory with a 1 seat majority, sacked within 12 months.
“GENERAL WENCK – WHY HAVE YOU FAILED UUUUUUUUUUUUUUSSSS!!!”
127 Grooski-so there’s a 97.5% chance Labor will poll 51.7% or more and therefore win, based on one poll. Your point being?
53% is close to a record 2PP for the ALP, yet Glen says that is what they need to win. Sheesh…
So this explain the small swing back to Coalition since Sunday.
Some punters indeed have forehand information from this poll.
If only Howard can move forth the election 6-9 months…
But it’s too late now, in exactly 5 days time, Labor will celebrate their victory.
No hubris, just humble prediction
Without a vision for the future.
Without credibility.
Without any kind of ethics or integrity.
How could the Libs run a strong campaign?
OK, the tribe has spoken
Coalition internal polling has Labor’s Mia Handshin now up to 50-50, deadlocked with Christopher Pyne in the seat of Sturt (SA). A swing of 6-7% is expected in Boothby (SA), which would see Labor’s Nicole Cornes defeat long-serving Liberal Andrew Southcott. People in SA will notice an increasing number of Liberal ads for both Pyne and Southcott in the next two days.
However, in a slight positive for the Coalition, the seat of Kingston (SA) looks to be closer than many predict. Internal polling suggests a 52-48 lead for Labor. Howard’s announcement today of a 24-hour children’s hospital to be set up in Adelaide’s south is on the back of these figures.
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