Sky News reveals tomorrow’s Newspoll will show Labor leading 54-46; primary vote Labor 46 per cent (down two points), Coalition 41 per cent (up one). Details to follow.
UPDATE: Preliminary article at The Australian.
UPDATE 2: The Australian’s graphic here.
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697 Comments
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Geez 182 ‘officially labelled biased opinion’. What are you on about it? Officially labelled by who? You? Dont need to wax your arse cos youre speaking thru it.
Kingston is a bit tricky, especially give then Family Fraud factor. There’s a lot of pentecostals out that way & my understanding is that they are “encouraged” to vote for FF.
Grooski,
I can’t give you 22 definite Labor wins, but I can give you a very probable 16:
NSW
Page
Lindsay
Parramatta
Eden-Monaro
Dobell
QLD
Bonner
Moreton
Herbert
Blair
SA
Kingston
Wakefield
Makin
TAS
Bass
Braddon
NT
Solomon
WA
Hasluck
sorry updates have been provided. will stop nagging.
If you look at the odds at Centrebet for individual seats and went by that, it looks like 20 seats changing. That’s not including Bennelong and Wentworth. And that’s taking punting more seriously than Newspoll.
Hmm. How can I rephrase that?
What i love is that it ios actually the Libs who have made this a referendum on workchoices and unions role in politics and the workplace.
A mate who is a lefty ALP staffer said “it is not that’s not true”, but a Lib can’t deny that that is their message now can they?
Kingston mightn’t be a sure thing for Labor: perhaps explains why Rudd has been there a few times recently.
antony green just calls as he sees it. best analyst around.
Antony is feeling the strain a bit.
Yep, it will be two seats either way.
Marktwain Says: “Antony is feeling the strain a bit.”
yeah, the strain of repeating himself, over and over and over….
I’m so glad I don’t have Pay TV, so I can avoid SKY, that bastion of Howard propoganda, starring David Spears.
Glen’s efforts tonight in claiming 54:46 as a positive for those on the 46 side of the scoreboard are at their least convincing ever – but still far more worthy of respect than whatever the hell a “Generic Person” is. My bet is that this moniker will become a new term for spambot; one can only admire William’s robust commitment to free speech in continuing to permit posts from the driveller in question.
antony is feeling the strain of Janet A lurking around his office all the time.
Toby-I’m a doctor living in SA and I haven’t heard a thing about a new childrens hospital in the south. Wasnt on the news or on the Tiser website. What’s the reference?
Oh well. The lead up to this was fun. An anti-climactical result – but that’s all I wanted really!
Sleep well tragics!
Basically, Antony told it as he saw it. While the Green vote will be important in Wentworth, it won’t be in the outer suburban marginal seats. He fundamentally said that we should trust the polls because they have been so consistent. He’s right.
Rudd and Therese are doing Kerrie Anne’s show tomorrow: no doubt he’ll again be accused of doing only light interviews.
Bob Brown on now
HH @ 206,
I don’t intend to remove Kingston from my “very probable” list until I see external polling showing this. Actually, wasn’t there an Advertiser poll in Kingston? Can anyone remember what the results were?
Bob Brown is on and Tony has asked him a curler about the IPCC report and the importance of India and China. Was Howard correct that they were more important than the Kyoto Protocol.
Brown answers correctly.
This poll would be at least 54.5% Even the last 53% was 53%+
and the last 55% was 55%+ looking at the likely preference flows.
The LNP is dead, regardless of identifying which seats; 53%+ TPP would be a clear victory.
AND as Possums has already studied the bigger swings are taking place in LNP marginals and, then LNP safe seats it is not being wasted so much in Labor seats.
David Spears is not too bad, sometimes it’s weird, he’ll try and make Howard look good, other times he’ll try and make the government look as bad as possible.
He probably is a Liberal voter, but i find him quite balanced most of the time
Marktwain. He’s a good man.
(and just on your moniker… i assume you chose it for twains newspaper contributions as well as his novels…)
I liked what I saw of Nicole Cornes on the 7.30 Report tonight! If I was in Boothby, I’d have no hesitation in voting for her.
Meanwhile in the NT.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/19/2095243.htm?section=justin
Glen reckons that IF it narrows another 2% AND the Labor vote is overwhelmingly in safe Labor seats then the Coalition MIGHT win. As comrade Trotsky was fond of saying: “If it wasn’t for the snow and the police you could walk naked in Moscow in the wintertime.”
It is now crystal clear:
1. If the TPP is 51/49 or 50/50 then marginal polling is important.
2. If TPP is 52+, then forget about the marginal polling, just focus on the national polling
Howard Hater 224
I went to front her (Nicole Cornes)in person at a street corner meeting yesterday. I was convinced by her.
219
That Newspoll in marginals had a higher SA result for ALp than the Galaxy poll for marginals and the big difference between the two???
Newspoll included Kingston and Galaxy didn’t.
Newspoll was more favourable for ALP. That kind of makes it a good Kingston Poll doesn’t it?
Jasmine #189, I don’t take anyone who uses the acronym ‘MSM’ seriously. Feel free to have a go at me but I won’t bother replying.
Grooski. I don’t know whether anyone has said 53% means Labor will definitely win 22 seats. Earlier, in response to some of the usual addle-pated nonsense from Glen, I noted that Antony Green’s calculator indicates that 53% will deliver Labor 22 seats. His is a rough guide, and obviously the swing will not be uniform. Nevertheless, his calculator names the 22 seats you requested.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/
As for arsewaxing, might I recommend the unfortunately named ‘Nads’?
Good luck.
Bob brings up the moral issue of the environment, and says the Greens are happy to work with Labor. Onya Bob.
VBotW don’t thanks me – someone else posted the link – I didn’t know it existed!!
Poor Antony was having a hard time finding suitably diplomatic answers. He did well
I saw a Greens internet ad on a newstory link posted earlier in this stream…
“Howard is gone, but who will keep Rudd honest? we will vote green etc”
Bob is on the Bandwagon
Question about MOE. Stats for me was years ago.
If we have an MOE of say, 3% at a 95% confidence interval for a “quoted result” of 55%.
That means the POSSIBLE “real” result is anywhere between 53% and and 58%.
But the possibilities are distributed around the “quoted result” on a normal distribution or bell curve???
So, realistically, in this example, the chances of the “real” result being outside the range of say 53.5% and 56.5% are pretty small??
BK: I’ve seen male politicians who are far worse at putting 2 words together.
Nicole has got 2 things going for her: name recognition, and a genuine ability to connect with ordinary people. And, she’s good looking too, which should help with the male vote.
Middle man, Mark Twain lost all of his money on a publishing venture and had to come out to Australia to earn some spare cash. Therefore, a true journo!
Bob is solid. And quite amusing on Rove last night too. Those greenies know how to have a good time dont they?
Imacca,
There’s a 16% chance that the “real” result of the poll is less than 52.65%.
Brown is getting all fired up on LL.
There is nothing preventing me from whipping out my camera and taking a photo of my ballot is there?
middle man @ 239 – It’s all the drugs the Greens take.
I’ll love Bob even more if he helps us get rid of this Howard government.
Marktwain, he was a seriously interesting fella.
Driving home from work today (from the Western Suburbs of Brisbane), I get the impression that Ryan is still very much in play. I saw Michael Johnson and a bunch of Young Libs on the streetside with his billboards, waving to passing motorists. Bloody distracting if you ask me. I saw Labor out there too, but no waving to passers by, just standing next to billboards of Rudd and Ross Daniels (ALP candidate). Will be interesting if the local backlash against Johnson is enough to see him lose office. The punter’s don’t seem think so.
I’d like to start a thread of discussion.
Rather than discussing the remote possibility of the Liberals winning I’d like to see plausible and reasonable arguments why the polls could be wrong in the *other* direction.
And I’ll add a couple of points. Remember the last few percent going 2 to 1 in the favor of the direction of the overall swing?
What about the polls this time being wrong footed by cultural change. Ok so they are weighted and all, but have they still missed out on younger voters who are notoriously hard to find. What about the effect of the internet?
Frankly a real final result of 56/44 wouldn’t suprise me (that much).
-moo
here is the link to the story that had a greens add- just keep refreshing until you see the greens ad come up, it will only take a sec or two.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/NRMA-welcomes-Labors-2b-roads-pledge/2007/11/19/1195321694034.html
Bob Brown upholds the right of the Senate not to accept the mandate of the Lower House. “If we have the balance of power in the Senate, we’ll use it responsibly.” TJ: will you block legislation? “Probably won’t have the power”, says Bob.
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