Sky News reveals tomorrow’s Newspoll will show Labor leading 54-46; primary vote Labor 46 per cent (down two points), Coalition 41 per cent (up one). Details to follow.
UPDATE: Preliminary article at The Australian.
UPDATE 2: The Australian’s graphic here.
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697 Comments
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Aw, Sky ain’t so bad. I quite like David.
This’ll be my first Fed election with Pay TV, and with Channel 7 joining in, I’m spoilt for choice when it comes to coverage (serious and not so serious)!
I’m loving how everyone assumes Green 1st preferences will automatically flow to Labor. More than likely, particularly in Wentworth and North Sydney, they’re “protest votes” to “send a message”. Greens 1, Libs 2.
Antony Green! You should know better!
That said, I think Labor has a better chance of winning Bennelong than the elction, sadly.
Marko. I’ve spent plenty of time surfing around the northern rivers area of NSW. I know exactly why they have so much fun.
205 BBD – referendum on unions – Dave its a case of whether you get shot by the Liberals or starved by Labor. There is nothing for unions to celebrate in this election either way.
Jasmine Anadyr – so finally the meglomania manifests itself.
Looks bad for the Libs, yes it is either going to be 54-46 (comfortable Labor win) or a real shock on the night.
Swing Lowe – not writing off Dobell, Page or Herbert.
A thought for you comrades – the last 2004 newspoll had 50.5 for the Libs and it came out 52.7 – apply the same error this comes out 51.5 ALP – 48.5 Libs, would you all still be so confident?
Mad Cow: what about all the people who don’t have fixed line phones anymore?
Newspoll doesn’t pick up people with only mobiles, right?
Can people stop saying that they expect the Labor vote to go up. Federal elections do not result in 56+ outcomes. It just doesn’t happen.
Rudd needs every bit of the awesome luck (and skill not to stuff up) that he is having at the moment to plug the leak back to the Coalition.
We have seen a narrowing, whether we like it or not. People who were going to vote Labor have decided that they won’t after all. I expect this “risk aversion drift” to continue right up to polling day. I am sticking with my prediction: 52.5 / 47.5 – narrow Labor victory.
Sinic@246, Ryan is very much in play for the ALP. Central office ALP money coming in over the last week and this week. also note the CM had a Bowman specific ad in today’s edition. I think 5-12% seats in SE Qld are in trouble for the Tories!
It seems Brown thinks the election result to be a foregone conclusion.
Have received confirmation from party headquarters that I will be in Lindsay on polling day. We must fend off the trots.
It’s worth watching, middle man. Bob Brown, despite his faults, does think very deeply.
Can I sign off now?
Here’s one of my predictions for Saturday [*gazes into crystal ball*]:
Wait…. its becoming clearer….. yes…
I see a bookie snorting Andrew’s $200 off some lithe mynx’s belly.
The latest revelation with regard to the Government’s future plans for WorkChoices is just more big trouble and more wasted oxygen for the LNP.
This is just so consistent at 54%ish it is not an abberation.
There is potential there to take this to 55% on election day which where they almost are now and, with also the 10%? undecideds flowing to Rudd at 2/1 a 55% is a real possibility.
Saturday night could be a very good night.
Self serving bias and polarisation – Your vote will decide
Yes you can Marktwain. Thank you very much, you’re lovely despite what Jasmine says.
Generic person,
Grow up you loser.
“256
Generic Person Says:
November 19th, 2007 at 10:53 pm
Have received confirmation from party headquarters that I will be in Lindsay on polling day. We must fend off the trots.”
The Trots? What’s Keith Windschuttle doing up in Lindsay?
Generic Person Says: “Have received confirmation from party headquarters that I will be in Lindsay on polling day.”
ummm…. who cares?
No 264
The world is much too small for petulant school boys like you.
My local ALP candidate said that he was handing out
“how to vote” cards at prepoll today when the
Liberal opposite was called home suddenly.
Shortly afterwards an American replacement arrived
and happily chatted about how she didn’t normally
get let out of campaign office but was happy to fill
in for a few hours. She said she was a US Republican
campaign adviser being borrowed by the local Liberal
MP.
This all seems bizarre as the Liberal campaign is
totally stupid. How can the Republicans hope to
get anywhere next year if this is what they do on a
practice ground??
Geez, the red cordial has been passed around in here tonight!
HH @253, that is part of what I’m thinking. Of course newspoll and everyone else does try to get a ‘matched’ sample.. same spread of age ranges etc. But, there may be secondary effects. Those people who don’t have a fixed line might tend to approve more strongly of Labor’s broadband policy. (you see this kind of thing popping up in the threads on whirlpool often).
Point is, there are probably cultural factors yet to be discovered. Groups of people the polls never reaches that were significantly different from the norm.
I’d also like to nominate non english speaking people who are now more connected than ever thanks to the net.
Re-action from the bettting markets to the Newspoll….
- bugger all as far as I can see – so all up Newspoll comes in at PAR.
Just one less day for the rodent to come up with a super wedge. His latest efforts on work choices is, quite simply, his worst so far.
Less than 50 hours before their TV spending advantage disappears.
Hmmm….might send some union bosses to lindsay.
Generic Person
You give US the trots!
the trots? did you eat something bad GP?
Hey Possum, I’m up to my second liter of coke.. want some?
ESJ – who is confident? Not me! The stakes are too high for self delusions. Hopefully sometime on 24/11/07 we will have a new Labor government, until then it is anyones.
253 ESJ
I am afraid you are wrong on that one- public support is much more significant than institutional backing for real democratic and active unions to grow and win for members.
The Parties can help us or hinder us in terms of our access to workers to build that support, party support or otherwise does not win the day for workers in itself, as an organised union they need to win for themselves.
Hi all, been working on my Monte Carlo simulator. I plugged in the 54/46% and got the following results based on 100000 simulations:
Num of ALP seats:
Num seats: 76, num times: 1
Num seats: 77, num times: 6
Num seats: 78, num times: 14
Num seats: 79, num times: 77
Num seats: 80, num times: 206
Num seats: 81, num times: 600
Num seats: 82, num times: 1297
Num seats: 83, num times: 2531
Num seats: 84, num times: 4643
Num seats: 85, num times: 7239
Num seats: 86, num times: 9961
Num seats: 87, num times: 12481
Num seats: 88, num times: 13627
Num seats: 89, num times: 13115
Num seats: 90, num times: 11554
Num seats: 91, num times: 8919
Num seats: 92, num times: 6041
Num seats: 93, num times: 3774
Num seats: 94, num times: 2150
Num seats: 95, num times: 1046
Num seats: 96, num times: 436
Num seats: 97, num times: 193
Num seats: 98, num times: 66
Num seats: 99, num times: 20
Num seats: 100, num times: 2
Num seats: 101, num times: 1
Avg = 88.3249, Std = 2.9232550333490375
Based on the simulation, the following is a list of seats and it’s probability that it falls to the ALP
Kingston (SA) 98.582
Bonner (QLD) 98.098
Wakefield (SA) 97.682
Parramatta (NSW) 97.489
Makin (SA) 97.335
Braddon (TAS) 96.906
Hasluck (WA) 94.749
Stirling (WA) 94.107
Wentworth (NSW) 91.82
Bass (TAS) 91.305
Solomon (NT) 90.201
Moreton (QLD) 90.141
Lindsay (NSW) 89.719
Eden-Monaro (NSW) 87.201
Bennelong (NSW) 80.524
Dobell (NSW) 73.421
Deakin (VIC) 71.333
McMillan (VIC) 71.123
Corangamite (VIC) 67.843
Boothby (SA) 66.974
Page (NSW) 65.53
Blair (QLD) 62.973
La Trobe (VIC) 61.902
Herbert (QLD) 56.378
Kalgoorlie (WA) 55.454
Paterson (NSW) 55.312
McEwen (VIC) 53.75
Cowper (NSW) 50.062
Longman (QLD) 49.871
Sturt (SA) 48.682
Robertson (NSW) 47.281
Petrie (QLD) 40.875
Flynn (QLD) 37.127
Gippsland (VIC) 36.906
Hinkler (QLD) 29.517
Hughes (NSW) 27.578
Higgins (VIC) 24.184
Bowman (QLD) 23.318
Dickson (QLD) 23.255
Dunkley (VIC) 18.55
Gilmore (NSW) 18.453
Canning (WA) 17.507
Kooyong (VIC) 16.881
Goldstein (VIC) 13.819
North Sydney (NSW) 13.789
Dawson (QLD) 13.683
Leichhardt (QLD) 11.415
Ryan (QLD) 11.038
Forrest (WA) 10.392
Menzies (VIC) 9.409
Moore (WA) 8.589
Fisher (QLD) 7.631
Flinders (VIC) 7.164
Macarthur (NSW) 6.735
Casey (VIC) 6.367
Warringah (NSW) 6.237
Calare (NSW) 5.875
Greenway (NSW) 5.86
Forde (QLD) 5.421
Tangney (WA) 4.908
Wide Bay (QLD) 3.498
Wannon (VIC) 2.95
Fairfax (QLD) 2.888
Hume (NSW) 2.153
Pearce (WA) 1.956
Aston (VIC) 1.602
Cook (NSW) 1.431
Lyne (NSW) 1.324
Mayo (SA) 1.063
Berowra (NSW) 0.982
Grey (SA) 0.907
McPherson (QLD) 0.856
Curtin (WA) 0.421
Mackellar (NSW) 0.162
Fadden (QLD) 0.115
Indi (VIC) 0.083
Farrer (NSW) 0.055
Parkes (NSW) 0.019
Bradfield (NSW) 0.014
Kennedy (QLD) 0.001
Barker (SA) 0.001
Seems to be working, however will need to fine tune based on the distribution of the swing (need some psephs to help with that).
It is lucky Glen has ten fingers and ten toes so he can count up all the seats the Libs will win on Saturday night with their 30 odd percent of the vote.
GP @ 258 which booth?
Oh ho ho, Lefty E.
More likely, I’ll be swimming in my earnings, Scrooge McDuck style!
Sure, 500.00 dollars or so would barely fill a wading pool, but I’ll do my best!
And hey, I’m not saying the polls are wrong. In fact, I’ll be very surprised if the Labor 2PP is less than 52%, could be close to 54% even.
mad cow @ 247 – re possible reasons for polls underestimating the Labor vote: Australians living overseas don’t get polled, and they strongly favour the anti-coalition parties. A lot have signed up. Even my daughter and her boyfriend have got onto the roll after letting their enrolments lapse, and they’ll be voting against Cossie and Robb from the other side of the world. The Web helps – better information, easy to get hold of. The AEC site is a national treasure.
Cool as.
Looks like LTEP may be correct.
Coalition a certainty.
Samuel K,
Newspoll has not moved in the last 3 weeks – it was 54/46 then and it’s exactly the same now.
ACN has not moved since the start of the campaign either – 54/46 then and it was the same last week.
From looking at the polls since the campaign started, there was an immediate move in the first 2 weeks towards the Coalition from 56/44 to 54/46. Since then it has been constant (save for fluctuations in MOE). There is no objective evidence of the Libs gaining any votes in the last fortnight or last week. It is even less likely they’ll gain some votes this week, as the advertising blackout kicks in 49 hours.
What I’m saying is that the jumpy Labor supporters on the blog should take a chill pill and look at the data objectively. It’s not happening for the Libs and as Antony Green has said – the polls are consistent for Labor now.
Hey Possum , you said red cordial but i actually need valium!!!
A wee statistical query: wouldnt the sheer succession of consistent polls suggest that the MOE (which would be relevant for any particular one) is way less than 3%?
ie arent we getting reliability across time etc; and so is MOE altogether less useful discussion now?
I hasten to add I dont know shit.
No 280
That hasn’t yet been confirmed. But I do know I’m in Lindsay.
Put simply Greens are the only alternative. Why? Climate Change this issue must be dealt with and now. The arctic is melting rapidly and oceans are rising and when the arctic melts temperatures will rise significantly. Not doing anything now means significant probs to come and a world which will die a slow death. Greens are to me the only alternative to the stupid policies being announced- Roads, tax cuts, pulp mills etc.
The Age in Melbourne tells us how serious climate change is becoming and will in the future unless we act.
Generic Person,
You Liberals are gonna get your back sides kicked till your nose bleeds.
For the 2 Morgans,Galaxy, Newspoll and the AGB, the TPP after corrections for House Effects is
Morgan f2f 55.4%
Morgan phone 55.5%
Galaxay 55.3%
Newspoll 55.4%
AGBMcN 55.7%
Average is 55.5%. Seen that number somewhere before.
No 289
Oh come on Greensborough, haven’t you anything better?
Each poll is unique though.
Just because you flip a coin and get tails, doesn’t automatically mean next time you’ll get heads.
Geoff Lambert. isn’t an AGB an after grog bog?
Will @278.. yay! thank you! I was gonna code one of those but I kept getting distracted by PB
It may be a symptom of coalition internal polling, or whatever, but tonight on Canberra TV Alby Schultz in Hume has been advertising. I have never seen him in an electoral ad before.
ACTU has organised internationally through other peak union bodies for OS voters in UK and US- has been big response, has been unlike other elections in terms of planning and execution of OS campaigning.
I have been quite impressed with what i have seen.
I wonder if the LIbs used the international charter of accountants to do the same lmao.
7/10, would’ve been an 8 if you didn’t laugh at your own joke.
Howard’s only hope is to win 2 Labor seats in WA, and limit his losses elsewhere.
The danger for him is that seats in the 7-10% range are vulnerable, eg. North Sydney, Ryan
Mike C – what’s Alby advertising? I thought he was as anti-rodent as anyone on that side of the house?
Jenny @282, do you know if there are any numbers on overseas voters?
I saw a news item months ago about there being a campaign on the net to get them to vote this time but I can’t remember the source.
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