Comments on: Patterson: 53-47 to Labor in Eden-Monaro http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/11/19/patterson-53-47-to-labor-in-eden-monaro/ Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth Sat, 21 Nov 2009 14:47:13 +1100 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: David http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/11/19/patterson-53-47-to-labor-in-eden-monaro/comment-page-1/#comment-87838 David Mon, 19 Nov 2007 07:30:00 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/725#comment-87838 I would expect Labor to win this seat, although this poll is basically useless given the sample size. I would expect Labor to win this seat, although this poll is basically useless given the sample size.

]]> By: ND http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/11/19/patterson-53-47-to-labor-in-eden-monaro/comment-page-1/#comment-87591 ND Mon, 19 Nov 2007 05:13:55 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/725#comment-87591 Perhaps she thought his moutache was a little porn starish.... LTEP, it could be that this colleague of yours is actually a fairly solid Tory voter and that it was the 'time for a change' comment that was the exception rather than the rule. People like her are probably the difference between a 55% ALP 2PP and a 60% ALP 2PP. Another case in point, my Grandmother says she doesn't like Rudd because he licks his lips too much and that she likes Kerry Bartlett because he 'has a nice face'. The fact of the matter however is that she is a life long Tory and her 'reasons' are nothing more than lame justifications for doing something she would always do anyway. Just because in a moment of weakness once upon a time she suggested that John Howard should retire does not meen she will ever bring herself to help him on his way. And I wouldn't expect her to. She did after all vote for Billy McMahon, Billy Snedden, Malcolm Fraser and Andrew Peacock, and no doubt would have voted for Dolly Downer if he had lasted long enough. Perhaps she thought his moutache was a little porn starish….

LTEP, it could be that this colleague of yours is actually a fairly solid Tory voter and that it was the ‘time for a change’ comment that was the exception rather than the rule. People like her are probably the difference between a 55% ALP 2PP and a 60% ALP 2PP.

Another case in point, my Grandmother says she doesn’t like Rudd because he licks his lips too much and that she likes Kerry Bartlett because he ‘has a nice face’. The fact of the matter however is that she is a life long Tory and her ‘reasons’ are nothing more than lame justifications for doing something she would always do anyway. Just because in a moment of weakness once upon a time she suggested that John Howard should retire does not meen she will ever bring herself to help him on his way. And I wouldn’t expect her to. She did after all vote for Billy McMahon, Billy Snedden, Malcolm Fraser and Andrew Peacock, and no doubt would have voted for Dolly Downer if he had lasted long enough.

]]> By: Lose the election please http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/11/19/patterson-53-47-to-labor-in-eden-monaro/comment-page-1/#comment-87545 Lose the election please Mon, 19 Nov 2007 04:49:54 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/725#comment-87545 No ND, it was just some photos she'd seen of him. A lot of voters base their decisions on very minor and trivial things. Welcome to the world of swinging voters. No ND, it was just some photos she’d seen of him. A lot of voters base their decisions on very minor and trivial things. Welcome to the world of swinging voters.

]]> By: The Doctor http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/11/19/patterson-53-47-to-labor-in-eden-monaro/comment-page-1/#comment-87506 The Doctor Mon, 19 Nov 2007 04:24:00 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/725#comment-87506 LTEP, do you guys work in Defence - or is it just the publc persona that's the problem? LTEP,
do you guys work in Defence – or is it just the publc persona that’s the problem?

]]> By: ND http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/11/19/patterson-53-47-to-labor-in-eden-monaro/comment-page-1/#comment-87488 ND Mon, 19 Nov 2007 04:00:56 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/725#comment-87488 What is wrong with Mick Kelly? Was it the private school comments? What is wrong with Mick Kelly? Was it the private school comments?

]]> By: Lose the election please http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/11/19/patterson-53-47-to-labor-in-eden-monaro/comment-page-1/#comment-87440 Lose the election please Mon, 19 Nov 2007 03:23:29 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/725#comment-87440 Re 21 If Labor does not win E-M I doubt they will win government. Just overheard a workmate discussing Kelly. She's previously said it's time for a change... but I heard her referring to Kelly as a slime and that she doesn't like him. When prodded a little bit on it by other workmates she was adamant that she doesn't like him. Well there's one vote gone. Re 21

If Labor does not win E-M I doubt they will win government. Just overheard a workmate discussing Kelly. She’s previously said it’s time for a change… but I heard her referring to Kelly as a slime and that she doesn’t like him. When prodded a little bit on it by other workmates she was adamant that she doesn’t like him. Well there’s one vote gone.

]]> By: Mike Cusack http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/11/19/patterson-53-47-to-labor-in-eden-monaro/comment-page-1/#comment-87423 Mike Cusack Mon, 19 Nov 2007 03:03:54 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/725#comment-87423 Well done, Bilko and spouse. I shall be doing the HTV at Berridale for half a day, attempting to whittle down the Coalitions 60% plus there at the last election. A 5% gain there would be nice! Well done, Bilko and spouse. I shall be doing the HTV at Berridale for half a day, attempting to whittle down the Coalitions 60% plus there at the last election. A 5% gain there would be nice!

]]> By: 5 days to go til Whack a Rodent Day! http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/11/19/patterson-53-47-to-labor-in-eden-monaro/comment-page-1/#comment-87192 5 days to go til Whack a Rodent Day! Mon, 19 Nov 2007 02:32:49 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/725#comment-87192 I have been working fulltime on the election trail in Eden Monaro, and the feeling on the ground is good. These numbers are good, and seem fairly accurate, however Nairn is still quite popular in some of the conservative (almost redneck) parts of the electorate. He has all but given up on Queanbeyan and Cooma, and appears to be focussing on Tumut etc (the new parts of teh electorate). In the redistribution he picked up Tumut and lifted his margin from 2.2% (at 2004 election) to 3.3%. The YRAW campaign in Tumut is strong though, and is getting some great feedback, but not necessarily against Nairn. Making the link between WorkChoices and Nairn has proved difficult. My thoughts from on the ground: Despite all this, I think Nairn will win Eden Monaro (albeit with a tiny margin) due to the fact that he capitalises on peoples lack of interest (his pitch is all about just getting on with the job and not worrying too much about the politics of it). As a result of this lack of interest from a lot (and certainly not everyone) of people in the electorate nobody is really swayed by the rorts stuff, however the Nazi blunder from his chief of Staff is STILL resonating here, and the YRAW Campaign is strong, so there may be a saving grace there. If Nairn does win EM though, I still tip that it will be a break of the bellweather tradition, and we will still see a Rudd Labor Govt. I have been working fulltime on the election trail in Eden Monaro, and the feeling on the ground is good. These numbers are good, and seem fairly accurate, however Nairn is still quite popular in some of the conservative (almost redneck) parts of the electorate.
He has all but given up on Queanbeyan and Cooma, and appears to be focussing on Tumut etc (the new parts of teh electorate). In the redistribution he picked up Tumut and lifted his margin from 2.2% (at 2004 election) to 3.3%.
The YRAW campaign in Tumut is strong though, and is getting some great feedback, but not necessarily against Nairn. Making the link between WorkChoices and Nairn has proved difficult.

My thoughts from on the ground:
Despite all this, I think Nairn will win Eden Monaro (albeit with a tiny margin) due to the fact that he capitalises on peoples lack of interest (his pitch is all about just getting on with the job and not worrying too much about the politics of it). As a result of this lack of interest from a lot (and certainly not everyone) of people in the electorate nobody is really swayed by the rorts stuff, however the Nazi blunder from his chief of Staff is STILL resonating here, and the YRAW Campaign is strong, so there may be a saving grace there.
If Nairn does win EM though, I still tip that it will be a break of the bellweather tradition, and we will still see a Rudd Labor Govt.

]]> By: Bilko http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/11/19/patterson-53-47-to-labor-in-eden-monaro/comment-page-1/#comment-87336 Bilko Mon, 19 Nov 2007 01:50:12 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/725#comment-87336 This has to be the best cartoon of the election or even the year http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/opinion/cartoons/ This has to be the best cartoon of the election or even the year
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/opinion/cartoons/

]]> By: James http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/11/19/patterson-53-47-to-labor-in-eden-monaro/comment-page-1/#comment-87293 James Mon, 19 Nov 2007 01:14:17 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/725#comment-87293 Somewhat of an overreaction in the Canberra Times here: http://canberra.yourguide.com.au/news/local/general/nairn-slashes-labors-lead-exclusive/1088571.html Somewhat of an overreaction in the Canberra Times here:

http://canberra.yourguide.com.au/news/local/general/nairn-slashes-labors-lead-exclusive/1088571.html

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