Time for a new thread. For the want of anything better to hang it off, I hereby reprint my piece in Crikey last week on prospects for the Senate. This does not mean discussion on this thread need be relevant to this topic.
Like so much else this year, speculation about the Senate election has been guided by “the narrowing”: that mystical force that would drive swinging voters to the Coalition once the campaign focused minds on economic management. It’s now clear to all but a dwindling band of die-hards that this hasn’t happened and isn’t about to.
It is thus necessary to revise the view that the Coalition will be strong enough in the Senate to make life difficult for an incoming Rudd Government. The Liberals and Nationals instead find themselves in danger of losing a swag of seats, which opens up a dizzying range of possibilities for the Greens.
A case in point is Kerry Nettle’s bid for re-election in New South Wales. Earlier in the year it seemed safe to assume there would be a traditional three-all split between left and right, with Nettle fighting a probably losing battle with Labor’s number three, Senator Ursula Stephens. In that context, any improvement in the Labor vote would have been damaging for Nettle. Now it seems Labor might be strong enough to win Stephens a seat without excluding Nettle, perhaps even bequeathing her a measurable surplus as preferences. That would boost Nettle’s chances of overtaking and defeating the Coalition’s third candidate, Senator Marise Payne.
The story is similar in Victoria, given that Labor and the Democrats have thought better of repeating their 2004 preference exchanges with Family First (who nonetheless have a vague chance if they can match their vote at the state election).
There has been a further stroke of good fortune for the Greens with the entry of independent Nick Xenophon in South Australia. Such is Xenophon’s popularity that he looks likely not only to win a quota in his own right, but also to deliver the Greens a substantial surplus. This could help their candidate Sarah Hanson-Young overcome the third Labor candidate, Cathy Perry.
Bob Brown should have no trouble winning a seat in Tasmania, the question being how the remaining five seats will divide between Labor and Liberal. There is familiar talk that Brown might do well enough to also carry running mate Andrew Wilkie over the line, but this at least seems a little too optimistic.
The two states where Labor’s strength does not help the Greens are Western Australia and Queensland. Western Australia does not look likely to produce the huge swing required to cost the Liberals a third seat, so a strong hike in the Labor vote has the potential to squeeze out the Greens. Nonetheless, their candidate Scott Ludlam remains the firm favourite.
Labor is also becoming hopeful of winning a third seat in Queensland, which it has never done before at a six-seat half-Senate election. On the other side of the ledger, there is a chance that the Coalition will lose the seat of Nationals Senator Ron Boswell to Family First, who will harness the entire right-of-centre vote if they get ahead of Pauline Hanson. It’s hard to see how Hanson herself could put a quota together, despite all that has been written about her minor successes in preference negotiations.
The remaining wild card is the Australian Capital Territory, where Greens candidate Kerrie Tucker threatens an historic win at the expense of Liberal incumbent Gary Humphries. This would be especially significant because territory Senators’ terms are tied to the House of Representatives, so that an end to the Coalition’s absolute majority would take effect immediately.
While it is likely that not all of these potential Greens wins will come off, they will probably have around five Senators joining the two continuing from the 2004 election, to be joined on the cross benches by Nick Xenophon and continuing Family First Senator Steve Fielding. The Coalition will be reduced from its current majority of 39 seats out of 76 to around 35, while Labor should increase its current 28 seats by four.
1,322 Comments
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No 1046
I used to believe Kerry was biased, but in the last couple of years where I’ve watched nearly every episode of the 7.30 report, I think he’s pretty balanced.
The Liberals are obviously extremely desperate to get Turnbull over the line. The futrue of the Liberal party depends on it?
Verminator,
I don’t think even Kerry’s closest friends would describe his bias as “slight”. Not a bad interviewer, though.
Why don’t we just rename Howard and Costello, Bill & Ben!
Back on topic.
Towards the end of tonight’s interview with O’Brien, Howard said:
“Kerry, my focus between now and 6 o’clock on election night is particularly that group of people who think that you should change just for the sake of change. I simply say to them you only change if you believe the change is for the better …”
Sums up the mood of a nation, really. Check and mate.
Crikey, what do you reckon, a Boothby poll from the Advertsier tomorrow or Thursday ?
Just watched the 7.30 Report interview with Howard. It was one of Kerry’s best interviews and while Howard had trouble with some of the questions I don’t think he was as bad as some have made out. He didn’t seem very energetic but I imagine both he and Rudd and exhausted by now. However I don’t think he would have convinced too many swinging voters to vote Liberal. Can’t wait to see tomorrow’s interview with Rudd.
Re: Barnaby on LL. God he was boring. Thank goodness it was Leigh that interviewed him and gave us something nice to listen to and watch.
GP, if you think religion is a load of rubbish, then logically you must choose option a) above.
That is you are in favor of the government disavowing ‘marriage’ in law.
No sanctified by state marriage. Just up to whomever wants to ‘marry’ someone.
Promise Crikey Whitey?
El Nino – Do you really want me to go into the differences? Do you agree the adjectives apply to both groups?
GP@1054 kudos.
It seems all this talk of man on man/woman on woman is scaring off the blokey union types.
The abc page with the 7:30 report isn’t coming up…
Anyone know anything about Grey in SA? Retiring memeber and all (Howie all most begged him to stay)
Surely must be a slight roughie? Never hear it mentioned. Should be some good booths with Port Lincoln etc?
mad cow
fair enough – I can talk about this all day and the next, though I think the logical positions have already been espoused.
I’d rather find something I can learn from when I hit the refresh key this often though.
ESJ @ 1064 – what shamless me-tooism! That was exactly my point.
Don’t know, Matthew Sykes.
Any idea, yourself?
Can tell you, Nicole is doing well, among the locals.
Good feature, 7.30 Report, last night.
No 1062
What I’ve said is that marriage in the traditional sense is between a man and a woman, but I am quite happy to accept civil unions for homosexuals.
Whether you are religious or not, the average person’s preconceptions toward marriage involve a man and a woman.
Jen (1036): KT (1038) seemed to better get the gist of my comment. FTR though, saying someone is a pain in the arse is not akin to a recommendation for the death penalty. I could call my boss a pain in the arse, it doesn’t mean I’d want to see him burn at the stake…
kina, I actually think Robb’s intervention today will be extremely unhelpful for Turnbull.
Newhouse’s procrastination last week had left the impression that he was either (a) ineligible, (b) a political imbecile, or (c) both. Good news for Turnbull, however you looked at it.
Whereas now Newhouse has been lumped in with 12 other people, at least 10 of whom (when I last checked) seem to be able to prove they are in the clear.
Blurs the lines about Newhouse very nicely from a Labor perspective, I’d have thought.
Great question. The culprit here is Nath.
Nath, this is a psephology website. There is no conceivable reason why you should be coming here and asking people, apropos of nothing, what their attitude to homosexuality is. The only conceivable thing such a comment can achieve is to derail the argument. You then compounded the error of #900 with the pushy demand at #924 that GP answer your question, something that gets my goat even when the initial question has something to do with the topic of this site. Every commenter is entirely within their rights to ignore any other commenter, and nobody has any right to demand people pay attention to them.
Paladin- I heard early on that the polls in Grey showed a 10% swing to Labor buthavent heard much since.
GP I’m pretty sure everyone has moved on
ENOUGH GP!
Does anyone have any info on McEwan – I feel neglected here and hope we are seeing a swing, although Rob Mitchell constantly leaves my with that feeling of “what was that guys name”…
Grog
“Farmers?? My God if they’re worried about them switching then the rout is well and truly on.”
The Victorian Farmers Federation is against Howards water plan and is backing Brumby.
Farmers realise water and climate change are the issues for them and like labor’s policies.
Howard and the libs did farmers over with AWB and the loss of our export reputation.
The Equine Flu has showed up the libs total incompetance of being able to handle anything related to the land.
And today there was a story of another Fire Ant outbreak, a very worrysome pest that the libs also let in under the deregulated quarantine system.
“The ALP is now at better odds to win the 2007 election than the Coalition was in 2004. And Labor’s odds of winning the Federal Election are the best they have been all year according to Australia’s biggest bookmaker, Sportingbet Australia.
The odds narrowed over the weekend from $1.30 into $1.22, while the Coalition’s odds reeled out from $3.50 to $4.25 on the back of heavy betting for Labor. By way of comparison, the Coalition’s odds of success at the beginning of the last week of the 2004 election campaign were $1.37 to Labor’s odds of $2.90.”
Apologies if already posted
Glen, seem to remember a week or so ago you told me that the Liberals had no nuclear Power policy. What does Howard mean by this then?
“We have said in the past – and it remains the position – that we will in the course of the next parliament legislate to remove legal constraints in relation (to nuclear power),” Mr Howard told ABC television.
“I have never denied my belief that if an economic necessity brings nuclear power onto the table … it should happen.
“And I’ve also never walked away from saying that wherever nuclear power stations might in the future be built will be subject to three things: environmental considerations, safety considerations and binding local plebiscites.”
Mr Howard did not rule out moving before the coalition lost its Senate majority, as expected, in July next year.
“I haven’t given any particular thought to that time frame … I just have to take that question on notice.”
Mr Howard said Labor leader Kevin Rudd had been running a scare campaign with claims the government planned to build 25 nuclear power stations.
A federal government-appointed task force last year found Australia could have 25 nuclear power stations in operation by 2050, delivering one third of the nation’s electricity needs.
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/pm-says-nuclear-power-is-on-his-agenda/20071120-1bon.html
There might be a decent swing in Grey Paladin, but no way will it be 13%. Port Pirie, Port Augusta and Whyalla will be labors best chance of picking up votes in Grey, these are the more traditional labor areas in Grey. I don’t think Port Lincoln will do much more labor, there are tons of small business people over there , and loads of very wealthy aquaculturists and tuna farmers. 6 or 7% swing would be an amzing effort fo labor in Grey.
No 1078
Yes your majesty….pfffft.
@ 1076. Thanks Diogenes. Anyone come across any odds for Grey on their travels? I might put some money where my mouth is
fair enough William. didnt think it was too out of bounds considering the level of contact we have all had. promise to never raise it again.
1072
Generic Person Says:
November 20th, 2007 at 11:30 pm
No 1062
“….What I’ve said is that marriage in the traditional sense is between a man and a woman, but I am quite happy to accept civil unions for homosexuals….”
….
do you run a church or something in your spare time? what is the difference in practical terms between a marriage and a civil union? seems very semantic to me.
why is this stuff being discussed at all?
Steve, that was last week. And next week when they’re in Opposition they’ll have a different policy again.
Gp
let’s not stand on ceremony. Ma’am will suffice.
No 1084
If I ran a church, I’d be advocating that all homosexuals are incarnations of the devil. I’ve not done that.
Anyway, out of respect for William, this is my last comment on the subject.
thanks william. i think your editorial discretion could be flexed more often.
William, do you want to keep this blog *strictly* to psephology or are you ok with party political debate/banter/headbanging? You have some trolls you seem to be quite comfortable with. Makes it hard on me as my reading speed isn’t great. Even when I just skip over certain names.
Can you lead by example? Or point to stuff you *do* like?
Love the idea of an election night playlist. Here’s mine.
77% – The Herd (A song about Tampa. Lets hope on the 24th the C**ts will wake up)
Year of the Rat – The Whitlams (just to remind us of the pain of 01 and 04)
Time is running out – Muse (only for the Coalition)
Lies are much more fun – The Grates (Is this a song about JWH?)
Which Side Are You On – Billy Bragg (”This Government had an idea and parliament made it law, seems like it’s illegal, to fight for the union anymore”)
Sabotage – The Beastie Boys (it rocks and it references Watergate)
I sucked alot of c**k to get where I am – Regurgitator (explains how to get ahead in politics as much as the entertainment industry)
Stand Up – Blue King Brown
Liar – Eskimo Joe
The Times They Are a Changin’ – Bob Dylan (Try listening to the lyrics tonight, Rodent)
Electioneering – Radiohead
The Bitter End – Placebo
Sweet November – Sarah Blasko
Smashing Pumpkins – Zero
Killing Lies – The Strokes
Get Free – The Vines
I think I smell a rat – The White Stripes
Karma – 1200 Techniques
Testify – Rage Against the Machine (Brilliant music video with Gore and Bush)
Sorry – The Easybeats (I regret losing the election, but in apologising for this loss I take no responsibility for it. I am sorry, but not that sorry. It’s kind of like if your aunty dies and I feel sad but I didn’t kill her. No really I promise. I’ve never even met your aunty. What do you mean suspicious circumstances? I didn’t even mean it when I said I was sorry. Stop looking at me like that …………….)
Brick – Ben Folds (Give me my money back indeed)
The Phillip Ruddock Blues – TISM
Gough – The Whitlams (”…all the artists flew in and all the arseholes flew out…”
The Day You Come – Powderfinger (A horrible racist fish and chip shop owning bigot emerges in Queensland and the PM thinks it’s brilliant – thankfully Bernard Fanning and his mates call ignorance for what it is)
Treat me like a dog – Powderfinger
Beds are Burning – Midnight Oil (I wonder how you do sleep while your principles are burning, Peter Garrett?)
We don’t stop – Michael Franti
Is this how it ends – Starky (I hope so)
Generic Person highjacks another thread!
William, please ban this person!
Just got ‘reactor’ polled by Morgan via an email. Labor and LNP ads.
does anyone know when the polls will come out this week? newspoll would normally make their election-eve call, right? and morgan will be out again. any others?
Since the Advertiser re-polled Sturt last week Crikey, it seems logical they will re-poll Boothby this week.
Mad Cow:
PATERSON
LIBS 1.60
ALP 2.20
I want a newkulah power station and I want it now! (if this be your sentiment vote Liberal)
and the verdict, kina?
Thank you GP,
and out of respect for the political process it is fair to point out that there is a political party that does indeed say exactly that. And they are standing candidates in this election and they almost held the balance of power after the last one. Therefore it will not be my last word on the subject if it is raised again. until then I will shut TF up about it.
For the sake of changing the subject, can we go back to shock seat predictions?
No 1088
It is hardly hijacking when I’ve responded to a question posed by another commenter. Perhaps nath should be the target of your senseless drivel.
I don’t even want to know what Nath means by that but I haven’t touched anyone.
Anyone else think The Bomber’s call for WA to turn to the side of light sounded a little deperate? I didn’t think it was called for.
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