Time for a new thread. For the want of anything better to hang it off, I hereby reprint my piece in Crikey last week on prospects for the Senate. This does not mean discussion on this thread need be relevant to this topic.
Like so much else this year, speculation about the Senate election has been guided by “the narrowing”: that mystical force that would drive swinging voters to the Coalition once the campaign focused minds on economic management. It’s now clear to all but a dwindling band of die-hards that this hasn’t happened and isn’t about to.
It is thus necessary to revise the view that the Coalition will be strong enough in the Senate to make life difficult for an incoming Rudd Government. The Liberals and Nationals instead find themselves in danger of losing a swag of seats, which opens up a dizzying range of possibilities for the Greens.
A case in point is Kerry Nettle’s bid for re-election in New South Wales. Earlier in the year it seemed safe to assume there would be a traditional three-all split between left and right, with Nettle fighting a probably losing battle with Labor’s number three, Senator Ursula Stephens. In that context, any improvement in the Labor vote would have been damaging for Nettle. Now it seems Labor might be strong enough to win Stephens a seat without excluding Nettle, perhaps even bequeathing her a measurable surplus as preferences. That would boost Nettle’s chances of overtaking and defeating the Coalition’s third candidate, Senator Marise Payne.
The story is similar in Victoria, given that Labor and the Democrats have thought better of repeating their 2004 preference exchanges with Family First (who nonetheless have a vague chance if they can match their vote at the state election).
There has been a further stroke of good fortune for the Greens with the entry of independent Nick Xenophon in South Australia. Such is Xenophon’s popularity that he looks likely not only to win a quota in his own right, but also to deliver the Greens a substantial surplus. This could help their candidate Sarah Hanson-Young overcome the third Labor candidate, Cathy Perry.
Bob Brown should have no trouble winning a seat in Tasmania, the question being how the remaining five seats will divide between Labor and Liberal. There is familiar talk that Brown might do well enough to also carry running mate Andrew Wilkie over the line, but this at least seems a little too optimistic.
The two states where Labor’s strength does not help the Greens are Western Australia and Queensland. Western Australia does not look likely to produce the huge swing required to cost the Liberals a third seat, so a strong hike in the Labor vote has the potential to squeeze out the Greens. Nonetheless, their candidate Scott Ludlam remains the firm favourite.
Labor is also becoming hopeful of winning a third seat in Queensland, which it has never done before at a six-seat half-Senate election. On the other side of the ledger, there is a chance that the Coalition will lose the seat of Nationals Senator Ron Boswell to Family First, who will harness the entire right-of-centre vote if they get ahead of Pauline Hanson. It’s hard to see how Hanson herself could put a quota together, despite all that has been written about her minor successes in preference negotiations.
The remaining wild card is the Australian Capital Territory, where Greens candidate Kerrie Tucker threatens an historic win at the expense of Liberal incumbent Gary Humphries. This would be especially significant because territory Senators’ terms are tied to the House of Representatives, so that an end to the Coalition’s absolute majority would take effect immediately.
While it is likely that not all of these potential Greens wins will come off, they will probably have around five Senators joining the two continuing from the 2004 election, to be joined on the cross benches by Nick Xenophon and continuing Family First Senator Steve Fielding. The Coalition will be reduced from its current majority of 39 seats out of 76 to around 35, while Labor should increase its current 28 seats by four.
1,322 Comments
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Patrick Bateman I concur, you can do it William.
Turnbull’s campaign workers have been spotted removing Greens placards on electricity poles in Wentworth and putting up his ones instead. As a Greens member normally I would feel annoyed by that, but it is an encouraging sign that the Liberal party is desperate.
ding buzz
ding buzz
ding buzz
HAHAHAHAHA…..no mention of the “Mr Robb 13″ on channel eddy in Melbourne
Howard says he hasnt encountered anger over workchoices.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/20/2096283.htm?section=justin
Did he forget to add “in my own household” or “while praying at church on Sunday”
RE Wombat no mention on PM either at least in the first 20 minutes I heard. Probably too late to make the news.
Yep, nothing on either Channel 7 or 9 news on the 13 “ineligible” candidates. The media might already be marking this as a baseless scare tactic and moving on.
148 Lose the election please – your right in that it will be in the papers tomorrow but you have the heading wrong. It will be along the lines of “Libs shoot themselves in the foot”. They have proven to be incorrect. This is ‘embarrassment’ time.
HAHAHAHA……………..no mention of Mr Robb or his crap on channel eddy in Melbourne!
But the ABC TV News will spin it in favour of Howard
cb, I find myself getting there fast …. my optimism level though is very high, it is just the angst, top to bottom, from the other side that I am finding at times difficult to deal with. This is my first federal election in Australia. Have other elections always been like this in the last week or is this election unique in that respect? I don’t have any other to personally judge it by.
mb, if you’re really lucky you might get a celebrity to help out with handing out HTV cards on the day!
Senator Heffernan.
How can you say that Xenophon has improved the chances for The Greens? His preferences are split evenly between Family First and The Greens. If FF (who have a strong presence in SA and outpolled The Greens in the Upper House in the 2006 state election) outpoll The Greens, then they will be the ones who benefit from Nick’s surplus. Xenophon’s entry has pretty much halved The Greens’ chances.
The tawdryness of this latest Liberal attack on Labor reminds me of Malaysia’s Dr.Mahatir’s attacks on his political enemies. the outrageous lies and dissembling, the low Macchiavellian cunning of the accusations, the abuse of the trappings of office, the manipulation of the compliant media, it is all there.
I love this country, but I am ashamed and disgusted at what it has become politically because of the actions and ruthless mentality of it’s leadership and Government over the last eleven years.
I don’t know how things will pan out under the Rudd administration. I can only hope they will put an end to my embaressment as a citizen of this nation. It won’t take much to be an improvement.
William is already aware of the comment submission -> back to front page issue.
regarding using IRC…
William Bowe@,
May I take this opportunity to thank and congratulate you for providing the great work/service.
Please keep in mind that IRC programs/protocols are blocked for many of us at work.
This will not be a big deal on election day (Saturday) and “celebration day” (Sunday
where most if not all of us will be at home.
During week days / working days, however, this might be a problem.
PS. Will you run this blog beyond next week, William?
NOBODY EXPECTS THE SPANISH INQUISITION.
But seriously, I thought the last time a defendant was required to disprove allegations was about three months ago in an attempted Queensland show trial run by Kevin Andrews and Mick “incompetent” Keelty. Luckily for the defendant they were able to disprove it, this time.
#1
Can I include ‘Ding Dong, the witch is dead’ in the play list?
This is just the thing to spur ALP supporters on till Saturday!
Same for me – the very first thing I thought of was Singapore and Russia, elections being rigged indirectly by declaring opposition candidates “illegal” or “ineligible” or otherwise using the courts as an avenue to shut them down.
The ALP should seek an urgent injuction in the High Court preventing the Libs from peddling these lies until after the election. They would get one.
Do you think the Libs ever intended the 13 candidates story to be a major thing? Is it possible it was just made as some throw-away comment that got blown into a big story?
I haven’t seen the footage so I couldn’t know.
HA HA HA HA
We have 2 new contenders for “Stuffup Of The Campaign Award!” –
Andrew Robb and Brian Lochnane.
This was so scandalous Laurie Oakes didn’t even mention it on Nine news.
It’s funny how Glen and his Liberal troll mates have gone quiet all of a sudden
The Liberals will already be regretting they have made these absurd allegations. To the extent they havemade news, they’ve largely made the Liberals look ridiculous and distracted from any chance they had to put a more positive message out. The day’s news is the workchoices cover-up and bungling, unsubstantiated allegations against their opponents. Another terrible day on the march to oblivion.
what do people think is where Penny Wong’s future lies?
i see her as a future Attorney General. Oh to have a person of her standard as the country’s guardian instead of the Walking Dead Ruddock.
she is immensely impressive amongst a lot of hacks on either side of the benches.
where do others see her ending up?
John of Melbourne 145
There have always been voters who make up their minds late in the piece.
But all the evidence shows their votes break the same way as those who made up their minds earlier.
The election is over. As to why the government is getting thrown out on its ear at a time of great prosperity, no one knows. Hence all the nagging doubts about whether it will happen.
But happen it will.
It will only be for Saturday, Frank. Yes, this site will stagger on beyond next week. Thankfully, a huge election drought is looming.
Penny Wong would make a very good Attorney General. She is a smart lady.
a drop in the ocean, mebbe scare a few Wentworth voters into sticking with Turnbull, more importantly it gets the WC2 stuff off the air. The only thing it actually “proves” is that Newhouse is a moron
But I think most ppl already knew that and quite a few are going to vote for him anyway
163. Therapy:
1. Split ticket A goes to greens, B goes to fundies first. Like Donkey Vote, more people will choose ticket A. Plus many Liberal voters and more Labor voters will go with ticket A then B, because the Greens are supported more than ff generally.
2. I’m betting the Greens will outpoll FF by atleast 4% in the senate – the recent polls have shown that, plus if you have been aware during the campaign, a bet such as that is logical.
Penny Wong is ineligible to be Attorney General because she is a lesbian.
She certainly seems very capable and principled.
However, she’s backed by the left, so promotion opportunities may be limited in the current ALP – especially coming from SA, home of the SDA.
Hmm, I think Penny Wong could be a great A-G… Another option would be something like Assistant Treasurer, if they wanted to give that job to the Senate. She’s very quick.
regarding the “13 candidates ineligible…”
It is a win-win situation for Howard nevertheless. Even if it turns out a dud, it serves to distract public / media from scrutinising other serious embarrassment for Howard, say WorkChoice.2,… you name it!
The loss of Marise Payne would be one of the true tradgedies of this election. She is one of the most intelligent, compassionate and decent politicians on either side of politics. If she is defeated I hope she continues in politcs or in some other capacity in public life. Both sides of politics need more like her.
Spiros
We have had a gay Prime Minister before, I don’t see wht we can’t have a gay AG.
Ok, ok, settle down people. There are only two possibilities. The allegation that 13 Labor candidates are ineligibile to stand is either true or untrue.
If it’s untrue, the Libs will be crucified. It will be seen as the last desperate throw of the dice by a clapped-out, hysterical bunch of scare-monkeys.
If it’s true in whole or part, consider the prospect of Labor, in Government with a healthy margin, immediately facing between 1 and 13 by-elections.
That’s the chance of getting between 1 and 13 Jackie Kellys. A chance of increasing their bag from, say, 85, by a good 10 seats.
These are, after all, seats that Labor is probably not gonna need to win to form government in any event. Apart from Wentworth, none are marginals.
Byelections in seats like Ryan will give the good people there a chance to “get with the strength”, as it were, having already seen what the rest of the country has done to Howard and his Merry Men.
They’ve done it before at a byelection and may relish the chance to do it again.
frank frederic, your logic would be impeccable if Howard was way in front.
But he is way behind. This just chews up valuable catching up time.
So what if Penny Wong is a lesbian – at least she has the guts to admit it. She is a smart, very capable woman. Who she chooses to get her rocks off with is irrelevant.
#183
But Frank all those things you WC2 etc got mentioned on ch9 news in Melbourne but not the “dirty 13″……hahaha
Spiros #180.?? I hope that was intended as a joke or an attempt at being sardonic. Otherwise it is the utterance of a fool and I dont believe you are that.
Regarding the nomination “scandal” I flicked between both Seven and Nine news here in Sydney to see how it played out.
Both bulletins led off with lengthy stories about the Workchoices cover-up and featured the same wonderful footage of the Prime Miniature looking shifty and uncomfortable as he answered the media’s questions about it.
Seven briefly mentioned the nomination “scandal” at the end of the report with a brief snippet of Robb’s press conference followed by Penny Wong’s eloquent reply. Nine DIDNT EVEN MENTION IT!
If what I hear about Paul Bongiorno’s comments on Ten News is true (ie that he said it was all a desperate Lib beat-up) Id call that a clean sweep for Labor!
ruawake 188, I was making an ironic point about stupid claims about ineligibility.
We’ve had a clinically dead A-G for some time now, so what’s wrong with a lesbian one?
Cheers Spiros.
Penny Wong would be absolutely fantastic as AG.
“Howard says he hasnt encountered anger over workchoices.”
That is because his nine bodyguards keep people at a distance.
All of his appearences are carefully staged managed with his minders gently grabbing his arm and directing him to the next friendly encounter.
If Howard had had the guts to attend the Melbourne Cup then he and Australia would have seen how unpopular he and his laws are.
But that is why he did not attend, not a good look to be roundly derided on national TV in the middle of an election campaign.
The Libs ploy could easily backfire on them too. If any of those candidates loses by a few votes, you can be sure there will be a court challenge due to the implication even though it was false.
arbie
who?
Christian W – yep I caught Channel 10 at the half way point in their news when they do a recap of the main stories, they then did a cross to Bongiorno with the line “And Paul how damaging will this be to the ALP?”
He almost laughed.
After he finished, my wife said “Wow! talk about an ad for the ALP”.
Will from Kooyong, taking that a step further, it would be truly hilarious if Labor lost the election by razor-thin margins in, say, one or two seats, and used this smear to overturn the margin.
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