Time for a new thread. For the want of anything better to hang it off, I hereby reprint my piece in Crikey last week on prospects for the Senate. This does not mean discussion on this thread need be relevant to this topic.
Like so much else this year, speculation about the Senate election has been guided by “the narrowing”: that mystical force that would drive swinging voters to the Coalition once the campaign focused minds on economic management. It’s now clear to all but a dwindling band of die-hards that this hasn’t happened and isn’t about to.
It is thus necessary to revise the view that the Coalition will be strong enough in the Senate to make life difficult for an incoming Rudd Government. The Liberals and Nationals instead find themselves in danger of losing a swag of seats, which opens up a dizzying range of possibilities for the Greens.
A case in point is Kerry Nettle’s bid for re-election in New South Wales. Earlier in the year it seemed safe to assume there would be a traditional three-all split between left and right, with Nettle fighting a probably losing battle with Labor’s number three, Senator Ursula Stephens. In that context, any improvement in the Labor vote would have been damaging for Nettle. Now it seems Labor might be strong enough to win Stephens a seat without excluding Nettle, perhaps even bequeathing her a measurable surplus as preferences. That would boost Nettle’s chances of overtaking and defeating the Coalition’s third candidate, Senator Marise Payne.
The story is similar in Victoria, given that Labor and the Democrats have thought better of repeating their 2004 preference exchanges with Family First (who nonetheless have a vague chance if they can match their vote at the state election).
There has been a further stroke of good fortune for the Greens with the entry of independent Nick Xenophon in South Australia. Such is Xenophon’s popularity that he looks likely not only to win a quota in his own right, but also to deliver the Greens a substantial surplus. This could help their candidate Sarah Hanson-Young overcome the third Labor candidate, Cathy Perry.
Bob Brown should have no trouble winning a seat in Tasmania, the question being how the remaining five seats will divide between Labor and Liberal. There is familiar talk that Brown might do well enough to also carry running mate Andrew Wilkie over the line, but this at least seems a little too optimistic.
The two states where Labor’s strength does not help the Greens are Western Australia and Queensland. Western Australia does not look likely to produce the huge swing required to cost the Liberals a third seat, so a strong hike in the Labor vote has the potential to squeeze out the Greens. Nonetheless, their candidate Scott Ludlam remains the firm favourite.
Labor is also becoming hopeful of winning a third seat in Queensland, which it has never done before at a six-seat half-Senate election. On the other side of the ledger, there is a chance that the Coalition will lose the seat of Nationals Senator Ron Boswell to Family First, who will harness the entire right-of-centre vote if they get ahead of Pauline Hanson. It’s hard to see how Hanson herself could put a quota together, despite all that has been written about her minor successes in preference negotiations.
The remaining wild card is the Australian Capital Territory, where Greens candidate Kerrie Tucker threatens an historic win at the expense of Liberal incumbent Gary Humphries. This would be especially significant because territory Senators’ terms are tied to the House of Representatives, so that an end to the Coalition’s absolute majority would take effect immediately.
While it is likely that not all of these potential Greens wins will come off, they will probably have around five Senators joining the two continuing from the 2004 election, to be joined on the cross benches by Nick Xenophon and continuing Family First Senator Steve Fielding. The Coalition will be reduced from its current majority of 39 seats out of 76 to around 35, while Labor should increase its current 28 seats by four.
1,322 Comments
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What a bunch of Nervous Nellies on this eligibility thing you all are!
Robb is “playing with Labor’s mind” on this one.
HE is demanding that LABOR nominees produce proof THEIR nomination is valid. What a bloody cheek! They just can’t get it out of their thick heads that they are NOT born to rule. After Saturday there’ll be more more “demanding” anyone produce anything. They’ll be out of office.
This is how the public will see it, too.
The Libs are a bunch of tools. This will play badly for them.
Evan @ 186
2 of the other 12 are marginals. 1 in QLD and 1 in SA. If it is true Howard has pulled another rabbit out of his hat and this one is from ‘Monty Python: The Holy Grail’. Quick were is the Holy Hand Granade.
Arbie J @ 185,
“We have had a gay Prime Minister before”
Which Prime Minister was that?
Forgive me if someone’s already pointed this out (have not had time to read all previous posts), but I was just looking at Portlandbet and Labor are now favourites in Corangamite.
JWH drowning, not waving.
Kiwipundit,
‘Pixie’ McMahon.
Julie @ 161
This election is unique. Normally, the libs run a pretty tight campaign, on message. Howard in control. This one has been a shambles. All over the place. I believe it will go down as their worst in recent history. However, it goes further than just the campaign. Many Australian voters proclaim to not giving a rats about politics but are ruthless when they are dudded. They also have long memories. It all adds up. They have turned on Howard. I am nervous, but … I feel something in the air. I went to a rally in Melbourne and cheered my head off for Gough Whitlam. Now, it seems It’s Time …
BTW, no mention of Robb on ABC’s PM.
It will be interesting to see how this plays in the morning papers, particularly if the News Ltd papers beat it up for all it’s worth. Probably be lead story in the GG, but really, who cares.
If the tabloids go heavy on it, it could become an issue.
I totally agree.
She is one of the only Lib senators (along with Georgiou and Brandis and one or two others) who is prepared to rise above party politics on matters of real importance. It is a reflection of the pathetic state of the Lib machine that she’s third on the ticket and likely to pay for the hard right wing of her party’s mistakes at this election.
# 11 William
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Hope that makes sense
It’s been rumoured that the Libs are a bit short of cash!
They’ve spent a motza on advertising, mail Etc.
They’re going to spend a fortune in challenges in the Supreme Court???
Wouldn’t it be a delicious irony if the party of ‘Australia’s Greatest Economic Team’ went bankrupt after the election.
I used to be a credit manager and if I were Australia Post or a TV Station I’d have ‘em on no more than a 7 day account.
Speaking of the A/G someone should ask Ruddock how much he got for his soul.
A lot of nervous nellies on this blog – relax and think of the numbers 85 & 53/47. May I ask those who are not confident of a comfortable ALP win, under what set of circumstances would you be?
Under no circumstances
It beggars belief that the ALP’s due diligence would be so lax as to let through a dozen disqualified candidates. One or two maybe if they were latecomers in safe coalition seats.
I notice Robb denied using government resources to inquire as to the job statuses of the candidates concerned. (Not that that would give them any insight as to state govt posts, or probably local govt or academic ones).
Does anyone know where the ‘released’ legal advice can be found?
Pancho’s ‘The ABC of Johnny’s Empire’, now with soundtrack
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=0yfGLa9YcIY
Speaking of the Senate (where this blog originally started) I attempted to predict the Senate based on Antony Greens predictions for each state. If the ALP win the Lower house (which to me seems a given – I have them at 87 to 90 seats) they have almost no chance of having control in the Senate.
I mangled and crunched the Senate numbers as much as possible but still came up with a new Senate of :
ALP 30
LIB/NP 38
GREEN 5
FF 2
DEM 1
These figures mean that the ALP will need Minor party support for every bill to get any laws passed. Even one defector from the minor parties defeat the bill in the Senate…..I grant my prediction could be wrong BUT:
a) Why has there been so little attention given to this important outcome? Its hardly had a whisper!
b) Is a Double Dissolution a real possibility?
ABC on line leading with the story but a fairly balanced article
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/20/2096105.htm
Those who have allegiance to a foreign power are ineligible to stand. What is Tony Abbott’s position given his allegiance to the Bishop of Rome (the Sovereign of the Vatican State)
Nice of Robb to let us all in on the fact that internal Lib polling is suggesting things are as dire as all the published polls suggest.
Graeme@214
‘Office of Profit’ is very complicated, not many solicitors are prepared to make a judgement. However, it applies to anywhere or anything, renumeration or whatever from the Government, State or Federal. In fact, if you are in a private company with Government contracts, such as acting as a ‘advisor’ to Government, you could well be judged to be in an ‘Office of Profit’
Did anyone hear Robb say ‘helligible’?
216 AJ,
If the prediction concerning the Senate is true, then of course a double dissolution is theoretically possible, once the bills have gone thorough the requisite number of times and been defeated. We could then completely cleanse the Parliament of this unrepresentative swill.
McMahon
AJ if the Coalition had 38 senators then Labor would need more than the support of minor parties. If the 38 voted together they would be able to negative any vote. 76/2=38.
All these scenarios about the Senate voting assumes the Nats will vote with the Libs. Joyce has already said he will support the Labor IR changes. Smart heads may not want a DD and be prepared to deal.
So Barnaby won’t be dealing, GG?
Remember Barnaby – he will vote for the IR bills. Maybe.
Apologies to William for my “yay me first” comment on the Newspoll thread
Everyone thinks nothing will come of this 13 ineligible seats stuff?
If they weren’t a mile behind, would the Libs be mentioning possible court challenges?
If they did challenge, wouldn’t that make them unpopular?
GG
The duplicitious Joyce only said that to try and win the seat for Boswell over the Greens.
in other words:
election lie No. 12568
Joyce will be an independent within the Senate within a year if he supports Labor’s IR laws. If for some reason the Nats don’t expel him, he will never get preselection for the Senate again and he would have to stand by himself or with some micro-party.
In news just to hand, the Liberal Party campaign chief Brian Loughnane has announced the Coalition has employed Donald Segretti to assist over the final few days of the election.
Mr Loughnane says he expects Mr Segretti will fit right in with the Liberal’s team and ethos. He also indicated he is seeking the avaliability of Howard Hunt.
When asked for a comment, John Howard merely replied “expletive deleted”.
179
blehygu
A split senate ticket splits the “1 above the line” 50-50 between FF and The Greens in Xenophon’s case, it’s not the same as handing out 2 how to vote cards (a lower house “split ticket”).
can’t say where i work but overheard a phone conversation this afternoon, (paraphrasing) “…yeah, we’ve checked it with payroll and they’ve got nothing to worry about….”
Grog: was that ratf**king?
#204 MGM, so currently on Portlandbet 81-67-2?
Spiros, surely it doesn’t matter which Greek island Penny Wong comes from.
I’ll be very interested to hear what the Rodent makes of this desperate smear on 7.30 report.
Mr. Rudd – Show us your WAY!!!!
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=BKmXSYi49IU
Now we just have to wait for Rudd’s “Cannuk letter”
161 Julie – I’ve been waiting all these years for this – you can’t believe how sweet it will be
Barnaby will be trying to extract advantage for his constituency. He will deal if it is in his interests. A DD is likely to increase the number of Greens and minor parties because the quota threshold will be halved. This would not necessarily be to the Nats advantage.
NEW ECONOMIC RISK COALITION AD:
I’m not sure it will work. The sky can’t be blue and falling in at the same time.
C-Woo, the reaction in my house was to laugh. That ad-man’s voice is just in EVERY single Coalition ad. The naff descriptions that they give to the ALP members is just silly.
Re. Actors in Labor ads…
Howard says “If there are so many disadvantaged workers how come Labor has to use actors. Why not use real people?”
One might say the same thing about the Lib ads: if there are so many in the cheersquad for WorkChoices, how come the Libs employ actors?
The 13 “doubtful” nominees in Labor’s team are just the ones that came from the PS or similar before they became candidates. Robb has no evidence at all. He’s bluffing. There is NO need for Labor to respond in any way. Let Robb and his Tory mates rot in political oblivion after Saturday.
Derek at 207
How do we know that it was Howard in charge in previous elections? Maybe the smarts came from Arthur Sidonis? This election is demolishing so many myths about Howard.
#241 Yes, Julia Gillard is a “fanatic”, Peter Garrett is an “extremist”, and Swan and Rudd are “learners”.
Any nominations for descriptions Labor could use in an ad featuring their equivalents – Vaile, Turnbull, Costello and Howard? You could throw Abbott in for a laugh too.
ABC Sydney led with the Workchoices thing, followed by the candidates thing. Also had visual of Penny Wong strongly denying the claims. Penny’s a good choice, but Rudd would be better…
#242 Bushfire Bill…maybe the coalition can’t afford actors. They just seem to use black and white photos of former Labor PMs and current shadow ministers. Perhaps they can’t even afford colour photos.
#233 Boll, yes 81 ALP should be right as I think Page took it to 80. I noticed some narrowing action in other seats, Cowper for instance, which hasn’t moved for quite some time.
Um – what happened?
Antonio 244
Vaile – sharp as a bowling ball
Turnbull – unreliable
Costello – lazy/gutless
Howard – yesterday’s man
Abbott – unstable
Sorry about the comment ordering reversal. To be corrected shortly.
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