The Sydney Morning Herald reports that Galaxy has conducted a poll for SBS’s Insight program showing Labor leading 52-48 across a sample of marginal electorates: Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Blair, Moreton, Deakin, Stirling and Wakefield. The average margin in these seats is 3.5 per cent, so this suggests a combined swing of 5.5 per cent.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
911 Comments
Which, at 81 seats to Labor, pretty much confirms what many people have been saying for the past few weeks. Very interesting…
Here’s a link to the SBS Insight program page, though there are no more details on the poll, just that it’s covered by the program tonight:
http://news.sbs.com.au/insight/the_deciders__part_2__135201
Also on the website, the transcript & VOD for the program’s forum with young voters in Moreton (where I live):
http://news.sbs.com.au/insight/my_vote_the_young_voters_of_moreton_132832
Warning: anyone bothered by last week’s 4 Corners might find this depressing too!
Labor ahead in the marginals, good news
…… and in a trend of continued bad news for the coalition after yesterday (Turnbull exposed on the 7:30 report) Downer has been exposed this morning in regards to the AWB scandal 
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/downer-knew-about-awb-kickbacks/2007/11/19/1195321695303.html
Malcom Fraser endorses the ALP in all but name
He doesn’t say ALP in the editorial but there isn’t one place where he says he likes what the Coaltion are doing. He says “The environment is a major issue. It has been significantly debated but I do not believe either party has set out a comprehensive plan to make sure that Australian water is used effectively” and that is about the only place where he points out that he differs from the ALP in his opinions. Everything else is scathing of the governments policies - “The new security laws have virtually turned ASIO into a secret police. That is not the Australia we know and love.”
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/voting-to-restore-the-values-we-once-held-dear/2007/11/19/1195321692334.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
Latest news: PM to make sole campaign visit to northern Tasmania
God bless Malcolm Fraser.
We’ll take him. The Libs can have Courtice.
“6
BrissyRod Says:
November 20th, 2007 at 6:42 am
God bless Malcolm Fraser.
We’ll take him. The Libs can have Courtice. ”
Funny - that’s virtually word-for-word (seriously) what I thought when I saw Fraser’s piece. I guess the only reason why he hasn’t explictly endorsed Rudd is that he doesn’t want to be expelled from the party, which is fair enough.
It’s funny how things change. Yet I can’t imagine saying similar things about Howard in 30 years time.
Thirty years ago I could not have imagined the warmth I feel for Malcolm Fraser these days … guess it’s the power of the rodent to bring (other) people together …
52-48 in the marginals is pretty pathetic for the Kruddy team.
That old sinking feeling must be coming back now.
Well the Rodent does make Fraser look like an enlightened, progressive individual, worthy of the praise of any decent social democrat….IMHO
It’s funny how colition luminaries become reasonable people after they’ve left politics - Fraser, Chaney, McFee, Sinclair et al.
LOL Wysiwyg
Something we all knew, Downer and his cronies were up to their collective necks in the AWB, do the public care, probably not!
BTW is it just me, or is this a really odd selection of seats. Average margin 3.5, yes, but ranges from 0.7 to 5.7. Does it really tell us anything except Labor is ahead, as always? I’d like to see some per-seat breakdown of some of these marginal polls though I suppose the samples would be too small to be meaningful.
BTW in Moreton (oh what joy to be marginal!) I got the two-faced Lib glossy on the weekend; don’t know if anyone has pointed this out, but I can’t see any authorisation, even with my glasses on …
Then Monday had a small leaflet “LABOR CAN’T MANAGE MONEY” in a fetching black & red scheme, with the “ANTI-BUSINESS UNION LABOR” map from the two-faced one - wish they wouldn’t shout so much …
But also on Monday, a posted letter from Joe Ludwig along with a Labor tax plan leaflet with table of weekly savings. This is probably a smart pitch as “what’s in it for me” never seems to go out of fashion.
The difference between Malcolm Fraser and the current sad lot is that Malcolm was a LIBERAL, the current incumbent is anything but. Hopefully the world will soon emerge from the nightmare of the neo-cons, Bush and Cheney will be impeached and sanity can return.
I’ve enjoyed this election so much I’ve decided to make a computer game about it. It’s going to be an election simulation game called “Battle for the House”. I guess this post is a bit of shameless self-promotion for it before the election is over.
The website is at:
http://www.um.com.au/battle
Luke, Don’t you think shameless self-promotion is a bit inappropriate during an election?
Basil Fawlty Says:
November 20th, 2007 at 7:11 am
Hopefully the world will soon emerge from the nightmare of the neo-cons, Bush and Cheney will be impeached and sanity can return.
Hopefully the neo-cons will be chucked out of the Liberal party and the liberals will once more take control.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/20/2095273.htm?section=justin
“Joyce to cross floor on IR
Posted 23 minutes ago
Maverick Nationals Senator Barnaby Joyce says he would vote for Labor’s industrial relations changes if Labor is elected to government in Saturday’s federal election.
Senator Joyce is quoted in The Australian newspaper saying he sees little difference between Labor’s proposals and those of the Government.
His vote would mean Labor could have its new IR laws introduced almost immediately, rather than waiting until the next intake of senators take their seats in July next year.”
No surprise that Barnaby is the first to jump ship
BV @ 18 - Barnaby Joyce is not to be trusted to cross any floor on any matter. He’s just a mouthful of say anything and do nothing. When the time came for him to put his money where his mouth is, you can bet your last dollar he’ll find some little difference to vote against Labor’s new IR laws.
It’s a great look for Mr Unity Howard in the final week!
What with Joyce and Fraser, the forced love in between Howard and Costello (see Michelle Grattan for a devastating appraisal of this http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/bmichelle-grattanb/2007/11/19/1195321694821.html) and the back story about dissent in the ranks towards Turnbull, this has the feel of a campaign where the wheels are well and truly coming off in the last days. One can hardly imagine what pratfall will occur next.
VBOTW: true one can hardly imagine, but Tony Abbott will probably have something to do with it
Fran Liberal-Voter Kelly on RN this morning saying that there is good news for the Coalition with the latest Newspoll. What a tool.
Fran to Julia this morning: “Minister …”
Oops!
I wouldn’t get too excited about this.
The guy who’s “blown the whistle” is an ex-DFAT official, who left the PS to work for the mystrerious car fuel additive company Firepower (itself a beneficiary of much DFAT largesse in the form of grants), but who was sacked after child sex allegations (which he vehemently denies) were levelled against him.
It’s all allegation and innuendo of course, nothing proved and mostl likely nothing will be, but to add another allegation - about AWB and Downer’s knowledge - on top of this steaming heap of unsubstiantiated charge and counter charge stretches one’s capacity to follow any story through to its conclusion without getting diverted from the main point at any of about a thousand possible exit points..
“23
wysiwyg Says:
November 20th, 2007 at 7:44 am
VBOTW: true one can hardly imagine, but Tony Abbott will probably have something to do with it”
Well if he feels compelled to once more insult a dying man, he’s always got Howard.
Derek Corbett Says: “Fran to Julia this morning: “Minister …” Oops!”
I know, how delicious
I’ve given up Radio National, because I can’t stand Fran Kelly’s blatant pro Howard bias, or that smarmy git James Carlton who does the newspaper segment.
Sez Charles at 17: “Hopefully the neo-cons will be chucked out of the Liberal party and the liberals will once more take control.”
Not if Pal Gerry has got anything to do with it, Charles. Here is El Rodente’s backdoor mouthpiece’s impassioned plea concerning the civil liberties of ASIO functionaries. If only ordinary Australians would understand that Secret Police are people too! Under current Australian Law, spying upon and forcefully depriving innocents of their liberty is just part of their job.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/what-about-civil-liberties-of-police/2007/11/19/1195321695078.html
… and where are the breathless reports on the daily colors of the leaders’ ties?
I tell you… this isn’t a proper election until journalists can look at the serious issues confronting the country.
Fran Kelly is an absolute disgrace! I have written an email expressing my anger and after her flunky performance this morning will be making it a formal complaint.
Go Barnaby! If the Nationals are to survive they actually need to reassess who their core constituency are. I’d like to see a progressive rural party in Australia because the ALP still don’t understand rural areas particularly well.
Hey all I received a letter from Petro, but it was from his office and it was purely election crap. It was dated Nov 14, so it was after the Libs launch. Is he allowed to do that at this late stage? If not who do I send this to?
I see little hops also. It labor do a reasonable job of running the economy ( and I think they will), then most of the Liberal funds will come from the exclusive brethren, god help the Liberal party.
“WORKCHOICES 2: WORK HARD WITH A VENGEANCE”
I took part in this Poll:)
BV Says: “WORKCHOICES 2: WORK HARD WITH A VENGEANCE”
Ha Ha Ha
LOL
Can I add another good Rudd article here. The Tiser has been really pi**ed off that water has been off the agenda. So the Ruddski has given them a scoop to keep them on side. Water is HUGE in Adelaide. Roll on the massacre…
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22787233-5006301,00.html
“Business is Rudd-ready”
“My soundings of business leaders and financial market players over the past six weeks suggests there is no fear over a Kevin Rudd victory this week, which is confirmed by the total lack of interest in the election from the sharemarket.
In fact if anything there is a growing view that a Labor victory would be the best way to kick-start economic reform, an idea supported by Rupert Murdoch.”
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Business-is-Rudd-ready-94R4N?OpenDocument
34 Will, I’ve received 2 letters from Gary Hardgrave on parliamentiary letterhead and with no authorisation (1 just before, 1 just after, the launch). However this seems to be legal from what I can dredge up from the AEC website (not necessarily right, of course).
But you can always hand it in to Ken Harvey’s campaign office and see what they make of it…
George Newhouse about to come on NewsRadio apparently.
Coalition 4% behind on a Tuesday
4% ahead on election day!
PS Come on Sri Lanka!!!!!
Replace Fran Kelly with Geraldine Doogue, and you’d have a much more balanced, intelligent breakfast program. Send Fran off to Sky News, she’d be right at home there.
If you think Sri Lanka will win, you’re living in fairy land!
“43
Ave it 07 Says:
November 20th, 2007 at 8:18 am
Coalition 4% behind on a Tuesday
4% ahead on election day!”
Ah, I see the pubs have closed early in Loserville, and so you’re back home once more…
Removed your ASBO tagging device yet?
Ave it 07 - so how would you like to deliver your ‘we were wrong’ statement on Sunday? Or for a higher amusement factor, please explain why 10 months of polling will be reversed in 4 days.
It’s a fickle straw of hope you’re clinging to. I held it tightly myself in 1996. “Oh yes, no worries, Keating can pull this off, he did in 1993 after all…”
Sounds like where you are about now!
Interesting that this bag of seat includes Stirling where mythology, or was it Galaxy, has given Labor little chance lately. If we take that out, it’s a healthy swing of 6%. Or maybe the pundits and the polls have WA wrong.
‘Labor View from Broome’
“Fran Kelly is an absolute disgrace! I have written an email expressing my anger and after her flunky performance this morning will be making it a formal complaint.”
That really is Sad BV….do you have nothing better to do?? There are plenty of left leaning journos did you email them as well??
Thommo, Santoro didn’t seem to have much better to do with his time than lodge complaints of bias with the ABC. Fierravanti-Wells doesn’t have too much to do with her time either.
If it’s good enough for senators surely its good enough for us lowly commons.
On the poll… it really tells us nothing new. Labor will win some of these marginals but not all. 52-48 really tells us nothing because I’d bet some of these seats are swinging a lot more than 52-48 and some a lot less (read Stirling).
Kevin, I would reckon this lot of seats would have a whole bunch of different swings. I don’t understand why, when we have a poll of selected marginal seats, the pollsters won’t release per-seat breakdowns.
Thommo Says: “That really is Sad BV….do you have nothing better to do?? There are plenty of left leaning journos did you email them as well??”
Thommo, that was really witty.. really good! Did you have to think about that for a while, or just whip it out of your azz?
Interestingly Anthony Green poo poohed this poll last night on Lateline, while Michael Costello said that it was ‘a very good poll’ on Radio National Breakfast this morning.
46/47 HEHEHEHEHEHEHE
Labor getting worried now!
Isn’t it a bit early in the day to be getting silly?
54 Labor always worries - it’s the price of having a conscience
If they were as blatanly biased but posing as non-partisan I probably would yes!
“54
Ave it 07 Says:
November 20th, 2007 at 8:33 am
46/47 HEHEHEHEHEHEHE
Labor getting worried now!”
Yes… just a pathetic eight points ahead on the latest Newspoll. Labor’s gripped with fear, and the Libs are so confident, that they can aford to indulge in their usual pastime of backstabbing and leaking…
BTW, Ave it 07, don’t you have a BNP rally to get to?
58 - oooooooh! Getting narked now!
yawn…
Fran Kelly’s comments would have been right if there were 6 months to election day, but there’s not there’s not there’s only one week.
I don’t think people should be making complaints about Fran Kelly. She’s warm and engaging and produces an intelligent programme. People may perceive a bias - either because they themselves have a bias, or because Fran has a bias - or both.
Either way, it can hardly be argued that she is outrageously biased - there is nothing more than the occasional subtle suggestion.
LEt her get on with her job I say.
M
Er, ignore one of those ‘not there’s’
Ave it, I’m with you on the cricket - it would be nice to see Sri Lanka win this one. Would be an all time record 4th innings chase. I don’t give them much hope on a day 5 pitch though, and apparently it’s raining down there.
Timbo, worse… there’s less than one week. It really is nonsensical. There’s no way you can construe it as ‘good news’ for the Libs. At best it’s not news.
Argh. Helen Dalley is worse than David Speers, by far.
Re cricket, Qld-Vic is probably the better paradigm anyway
Especially with former Qld player Greg Rowell due to knock off the senior Lib Can’t-Do Campbell next March - as Lord Mayor of Brisbane LOL
Rudd on Kerry Anne’s show at 9AM.
I think the suggestions that Fran Kelly be sacked are terribly unfair. She is a public servant and should be compensated if it came to that. Far better that she be moved somewhere mroe sympathetic to her beliefs. How about the new on-air voice at a suitable rural location, like ABC’s Dubbo or Roma radio stations
“59
Ave it 07 Says:
November 20th, 2007 at 8:42 am
58 - oooooooh! Getting narked now!”
Yes I am. How dare you talk such nonsense? I mean, who are you? What do you know about Australian politics, you fool? I’m vewy vewy craws!
(Stamps tiny foot and storms out)
Sorry, just channelling Dolly Downer there…
Looks like the GG is slowly, but surely, turning:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22786862-16741,00.html
The last paragraph says: “Reluctantly endorsing a return of the Howard Government in 2004, The Australian expressed disappointment at the way both sides had attempted to use big-spending programs to win office. This time, in rhetoric at least, Mr Rudd has been prepared to break the mould in a bid to convince voters of his economic credentials. By contrast, rather than spend the last week of the campaign explaining what the Coalition will do with a fifth term, Mr Howard has promised to spend “every waking hour of every waking minute” driving home the risk of Labor.”
64 sensible comment!
No i dont really expect Sri lanka to win tho
But will it be Mr H smiling on Saturday night!!!!
See you later y’all!!!!
If nothing else 2007 clearly demonstrates the lie that the ABC is some den of left-wing sympathisers!
Frana-cana-unda-standa
Socrates, if Fran Kelly could rightly be construed as a public servant there is a public service code of conduct that maintains public servants are to be impartial. If a public servant demonstrates they are not able to demonstrate the judgment to act impartially then they should quit the public service.
There’s a difference, however, with acting frankly and fearlessly and promoting a particular political party. I’m not passing any comment on Fran Kelly because I’ve never once listened to her.
More gold. Howard sows up green preferences for Labor, ensuring that they will win seats like Wentworth, Sturt and maybe even North Sydney if they go down to the wire:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22788091-601,00.html
Howard talking up the fears of a Labor Green prefernce deal is exactly what is needed for Labor to get the 90% Green preference flow reported in the Wentworth poll. I don’t say this out of fear - at 54/46 overall the election is won whether ESJ and co are psychologically capable of admitting it or not. This is just about mopping up the borderline contests.
Malcom Fraser
stuffed up once,
but ever since he’s been a remarkable human being. We need far more like him.
Sri Lanka have a far better chance of winning today than Howard does on Saturday.
I couldn’t care less about Sri Lanka.
I couldn’t say that I was a Fraser fan, but he did at least stick to his principles, and still does, hence I can respect him. His principles were genuine, as demonstrated by the years of work after politics for Care Australia and the like. But really, it shows just how far Howard has shifted Australian politics to the right. Fraser was a small-l liberal in the 70s, then a right-of-centre position. Without changing his principles, he now finds his views to the left of the entire Liberal Party.
And it isn’t just Fraser. I wonder if 70s/80s Liberals like James Killen, Fred Channey or even Andrew Peacock would be able to get pre-selection now? I had assumed Bruce Baird was similar but someone posted yesterday that even he has turned.
I suppose I empathise with them because I feel the same; I was relatively conservative in my uni-student days, but now find myself with views that are edscribed as “left-wing” even though I think they are not even remotely socialist. Thus I can’t vote Liberal.
78 - thanks for sharing.
4
Julie Says:
November 20th, 2007 at 6:07 am
Malcom Fraser endorses the ALP in all but name…
——————————————
I don’t think so. I find that hard to believe. Many of his criticisms include concerns about the ALP, too. I’m in South Africa at the moment but last time I saw Malcolm Fraser on TV he was wearing a Green tie… I can guess who he is really endorsing. Independent Defence Policy, Refugee Rights and many other things he says are Green rather than Labor.
Would our dear leader be unaustralian enough if Sri Lanka scraped through to try to draw an analogy?
LETP 74
I just meant that I would hate to see precipitate action agaisnt people like Fran Kelly give them a financial free-kick. I was not defending her partisan nature.
Hey Pancho
I memorialised your post from yesterday,
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=-D2c0hoSmvM
I can remove the end credit reference to your good self, if you wish.
This 52-48 “poll” seems to be an attempt by Briggs to swing some momentum, any momentum, towards the coalition. I doubt the ALP will be worried by it.
This is funny. On the topic of how the leaders make their own breakfast:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/youre-toast-says-one-happy-little-vegemite-to-the-pm/2007/11/19/1195321695075.html
JFC, brilliant! After Saturday, you can add the prefix: a long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away…
I do enjoys everyone’s conspiracy theories about media in Australia.
I am sure you can also tell me who shot JFK, where is Harold Holt living China and the whereabouts of Flight 19 from World War 2.
I think overall all parties have tried to control the spin but have been exposed on their strentgths and weaknesses.The public have got bored and just want a change, so, Labor will win on the weekend.
Sorry ,I know my pluralist views are what is wanted in these threads
Jason Koutoukis in The Age on the web pseph sites
“These people are not commentators and have no intimate daily connection with politics like journalists in the Canberra Press Gallery. They are literally just amateur observers who prefer to call it as they see it.
Unlike those of us in the Canberra Press Gallery, they most probably don’t spend their days talking to politicians, and nor would they spend much time talking to the legions of strategists, spin doctors, and advisers that we spend so many hours a week chatting to.
Yet my prediction is that the amateur observers will be a lot closer to the mark than us professionals, which gives me a slightly uncomfortable feeling.
The reason of course is that most journalists live in terror of offending one side or the other and of being cut off ‘the drip’, with the main consequence being that few of us actually say what we really think.”
http://blogs.theage.com.au/koutsoukis/archives/2007/11/psephologists_v.html
Diogenes
We just got the huge full-color booklet mail out from the Liberals in Sturt yesterday. That was o top of another letter from Pyne (on official letterhead??!!) filled with nothing but an “electoral update” that was purely campaign material. the cynical bastard. At least that booklet mailout must have cost them a bundle. 8 pages of glossy colour A4, stapled, to every household, payed for by Liberal funds. It is now being mulched
BTW, quite apart from the cost and futility, whoever did the art work and layout on the Liberal glossy package ought to be shot. It had the most horrible red-yellow colour scheme that was so garrish we hardly wanted to look at it. Plus in the centre there was this bizarre double-sided set of slogans, one warning against Labor, the other saying “go for inflation”, oops, I mean “go for growth”. It was all quite confusing, even by the standards of Liberal election garbage. At least whoever ghost-wrote the perssonal letter woman-to-woman from “Carolyn” Pyne, knew how to write, if in a rather old fashioned way. Whoever did the glossy brochure must have barely passed high-school english.
Its so nice to think they are sufficiently scared of losing Sturt that they have to divert resources from defending the seats they need to hold onto to actually keep government. I’d love Sturt to fall, but as long as the count is 16+ on Saturday night I’ll still be opening the bubbly.
The worst thing about Fran is not her fawning love of tories but her tedious promotion of netball!
Re 89 Paul Hodgson
Jason Katsoukis is essentially saying he thinks the ALP will 90 odd seats - but that he’s too scared to come out and say it!!!
look like the betting markets moving in favor of Labor today!?
Re 84,
JFC Says:
Very good move
…. you could put some music into it though?
It would put it in perspective if Koutsoukis posted the predictions of the same psephologists from the ‘04 election.
Sinic,
No this is great. It means Labor is in front by a clear margin even in the marginals. Labors score for the four sampled is 4 out of 4! There are about 30 such seats, and Labor only needs 16. Do the maths and smile. This is not a national sample, so it leaves out safe seats where Labor might get a bigger swing, but is still consistent with the 54/46 overall result, which ensures victory. Smile
RA @ 92
To win 90 seats we would need a swing that Labor hasn’t achieved since 1969. An that was an election we still lost (we all know why)
I don’t know why, actually.
My parents didn’t meet until 1975
I presume Labor lost in ‘69 because they were absolutely smashed in 1966 and they had to pick up a massive number of seats.
Probably similar to 1998 or even 1990….
It is time we called Henderson’s bluff. Apart from the fact that he masquerades as a “commentator”, which implies that he is some sort of freewheeling essayist, in reality he is either a paid or an unpaid shill for the Liberal Party, and even on his own terms his column is load of badly constructed shite. The Libs should ask for their money back.
One of the features of Henderson’s polemic is doctrinaire nit-picking in which he generates by way of his schoolboy swat to come up with irrelevant details about the subject in order to snow the reader into thinking that Hendo has throughly researched his subject and therefore, by inference, knows what he is talking about. (Hendo also goes to great lengths to “research” Kafka and tells us he was an “Austrian writer”, whereas he was a Czech Jew living in Bohemia, a part of the Austro Hungarian empire. )
But the main beef is that in his Nov 20 Herald column Henderson conflates Kafka (the writer) and the adjective “Kafkaesque”. It is absurd.
The point about calling the plight of Izhar ul-Haque Kafkaesque was to draw attention to the fact that what happened to ul Haque in a scenario where the rule of law simply did not apply. Thus it was like an event in a Kafka story and “researched” details about Kafka himself, the author are here irrelevant and obtuse.
Kafka was concerned with “troubled individuals in a nightmarishly impersonal world”, created by bureaurcacy and shadowy figures from secret police.
But stupidly, Hendo suggests that Kafka, the author, a struggling writer whose day job was as an insurance clerk in a government owned insurance company would have sympathy with the secret police because he too had a job with the government.
Henderson is a low-grade, sweating, blinking dolt. Fairfax would do well to give him the flick. Now is as good a time as any.
DLP
The country has changed since 1969. Whatever I may post here, I am much more guarded in my comments elsewhere, but I still certainly detect a strong mood of change. When William did that prediction thread a few weeks ago I guessed Labor 87 seats, but if I could do it again now I’d up my guess to Labor 90. Nothing has happened in between to do anything other than erode the Liberal vote. It has been Howard’s worst campaign ever. Look at the polling going on now - nobody is even bothering to test Labor held seats, even if marginal. They are all looking at Liberal marginals, adn increasingly at Liberal moderately safe seats like Wentworth, North Sydney and Sturt where I live. Even if Labour only picks up a third of those safe seats, they will surely pick up almost all the marginals before them, and that means almost 30 seats. A few of the stronger local candidates will survive but this will be big.
90 — Lib head office in SA has barely offered any support to the individual candidates. Pyne’s going all out on his own, same with Bob Day in Makin.
Socrates, I also found the Liberals mailout brochure very confusing. It appeared very amateurish and more than a little desperate.
On the other hand, Rudd’s DVD is a waste of time. Who’s really going to bother playing it? We watch this guy on tv every night and he wants us to watch him more? More reasons the ALP’s campaign team needs to be fired regardless of the result.
1969 we won 26 seats
but the gap was so significant that well….we had to wait till ‘72….
“Federal Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd says he can’t fathom why Prime Minister John Howard has suppressed secret Work Choices documents.”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federalelection2007workplace/i-cant-fathom-pm-rudd/2007/11/20/1195321733632.html
Michael,
Really? That must cost him a bundle. Sturt has a population of 96,000. Being fairly gentrified, that would equate to around 40,000 households. If he did a mail out of the lot with a full colour brochure, that is big money. I’d rather Chris had just given me the $2 instead. Maybe he could develop a system whereby we could nominate a charity for him to donate the printing money to for households which are going to vote against him whether he likes it or not. Pyne might be better off saving for his retirement. Then again, he already qualifies for the pension, not that I feel sorry for him.
Hurray! Michael Keenan should hold on in Stirling yeeha!
Current SportingBet odds on these seats, ALP/LP, and margin:
Dobell 1.20/4.15 4.8
Eden-Monaro 1.15/4.50 3.3
Blair 1.18/4.25 5.7
Moreton 1.10/5.50 2.8
Deakin 2.00/1.72 5.0
Stirling 2.15/1.60 2.0
Wakefield 1.05/7.50 0.7
Sooo… bigger swing in 5 seats NSW/Qld/SA, lesser swing in 2 seats Vic/WA, making up the 4 point margin on aggregate?
You’re getting Koutsoukis all wrong.
He’s already come out and predicted an easy Labor victory (last Sunday Age, I think it was). He’s not supplying numbers of seats, but he’s certainly off the fence.
Earlier on in the year Koutsoukis was the semi-official conduit of the “Senior Liberal Strategists”. Every nasty, smarmy, sneaky trick they were going to play on Labor (and Rudd in particular) was laid out by Koutsoukis gleefully, in some detail.
I thought at the time this was quite useful as an insight into what the other side was thinking, and maybe it was. The publication of these tactics certainly would not have hindered Labor in avoiding the traps the “Lib strategists” were setting. One by one we heard the sound of hands being rubbed together as Jason reported the latest dastardly deed. One by one all these idiotic smear campaigns turned to hot air and wafted away into the ether.
I think Koutsoukis finally got the message about mid-year when he started to write articles somewhat more sympathetic to Labor… let’s say at least more balanced.
But the final nail in the coffin for the Svengali’s of the Lib strategy team was when Jason reported on the “Gillard Dirt File”, deriding it as “press clippings”. In case ‘Bludgers have forgotten, this article pretty-well directly precipitated the final parliamentary debate of the Howard government, as Jason’s report that he got his dirt from a “plush suite of ministerial offices” got a good airing.
If I thank Jason Koutsoukis for nothing else, I thank him for writing that article and confirming that ministers were dishing dirt on Labor direct to journalists. I think the best thing about the debate itself was that it contained John Howard’s last ever words to an Australian parliament. Koutsoukis’ name itself was in the last ever speech of the Howard government, before the Speaker shut up shop at 5pm:
… adjourned forever, that is, under Howard.
All I’m saying is don’t knock Jason Koutsoukis too much. He went off the rails for a while there, earlier on in the year, but he has more than made up for it. He went out publicly on a limb, most likely got himself cut off from “the Drip” as he calls it. He told the Libs publicly to go jump in the lake. He deserves a lot of credit for that.
Koutsoukis is a passionate guy. I think we’ll hear a lot more from him, and of him, in the years to come.
(and no, I’ve never met him).
Howard 1.58/2.25 McKew in Bennelong. Liberal team, could you pump those odds up again? I’d like to get a few more bob on.
I take no notice of this Galaxy poll.
THIS IS A REPEAT of Galaxy’s fiasco with a poll of 4,000 voters over 20 seats , where there sample was 200 per seat spread over 3 nights per seat. Worse still , many states were completed after Howard’s Launch but before Rudd’s
An average of these seats is meaningless given the sample will not be more than 200 per seat. Further we do not know the individual seat polling results
It will be interesting to see how close the pollbludger crowd get the result. As I recall from the tipping the average calls about 88-90 seats for Labor.
While I would be happy with that result, I think that like a Morgan poll, the Internet is a bit enthusiastic in favour of defeating the conservatives.
How did the pollbludger crowd go at picking the 2004 result? Can anyone remember?
Malcolm Fraser subtly endorsing labor.
AWB lies becoming unravelled.
And John Howard himself giving reasons to vote out his social conservatism.
Good start to the day.
Fran Kelly is a fine journalist as she has demonstrated repeatedly over the years. That she should irritate and delight people from all across the political spectrum is a testimony.
It was said of the late, great Andrew Olle that one could have a conversation with him about politics and come away without knowing which way he voted.
The same could be said of Kelly.
We should be aware that Kelly and other current affairs journalists at the ABC work under the purview of the culture war warriors on the board and management.
Hopefully this will change soon.
Apologies if others have covered it but here is another truth-attack that will go down with the Coalition like media access to Tony Abbott:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/downer-knew-about-awb-kickbacks/2007/11/19/1195321695303.html
Looks like Downer was closer to the facts on AWB kickbacks than his gormless look would indicate. Anyone knowing the control freaks that run the Federal government would hardly be surprised. As if anyone could hand out $300 million without at least notifying their Minister. So the Coalition was soft on Iraqi dictators after all. Gee, its good to know we were helping Sadam Hussain when he was still funding suicide bombers in Israel. That must have been great for security.
Yes Albert Ross, a very telling moment was during a Bennelong broadcast where Fran Kelly told a jeering crowd to “Be quiet or else we’ll get in trouble”.
ND - Peter Brent (mumble.com) got 2004 spot on, I believe.
Koutsoukis has had a great year. His piece on the Gilliard dirt file was incredibly brave and a real service to this country.
He then followed it up a few months later with a generous piece about the Democrats
I have reached the highly jittery frame of mind where I believe the following 2 propositions with almost equal intensity, almost at the same moment. Just about any snippet of news can tip me one way or t’other:
1. That Labor is coasting to a historic victory on a virtually unprecedented swing that will leave the Liberals pulverised and in-fighting for two terms or more..
And
2. That countless swinging voters are poised to return meekly, out of hip pocket self interest, to the Coalition column, setting the stage for Howard to scrape back in by a couple of seats..
North Sydney was 60.5 / 39.5 last time around.
These are the seats the coalition are concerned about: 60.5 / 39.5!!!
And “hasn’t happened since 1969″ doesn’t seem like a particularly strong argument to me. There’s been what, 13 or 14 elections since then?
So we need a 1 in 14 occurence.
And if it does happen this time it becomes a 1 in 7 chance! Bayesians Unite!!
The standard MOE is derived from a 1 in 20 principle, in contrast.
Flash@120
I KNOW, thrilling isn’t it???
Flash
go for option one
I am , and so are 60% of the electorate.
“That countless swinging voters are poised to return meekly, out of hip pocket self interest, to the Coalition column, setting the stage for Howard to scrape back in by a couple of seats.”
Oh and they will add… “Sorry Tone we were just joshing ya.”
Dembo. I wish that piece had gotten the Dems some more coverage. When i get past 40 and want to enter political life it was the Dems i wanted to join… bu alas… i’m only 36… i dont think they’ll be around when i’m 40!
Albert @115 - couldn’t agree more. Fran Kelly is an excellent journo who takes balance seriously. She spoke at a briefing for the industry I work for recently and was well across seats, polls and drivers - and argued that the dynamic for marginal seats was incredibly difficult to read from a distance with the ‘all politics is local’ line she used this morning as the Coalition’s only chance. The tories frequently complain about RN Breakkie and AM for bias, if she’s annoying us that’s probably a fair call. Her interview with Centrebet didn’t seem biased - pretty factual and fair.
Personally I think the Dems are a whole lot more credible than the Greens and will probably vote for them in the Senate for the first time this election. Just because everyone says they’re finished it doesn’t mean we shouldn’t vote for them.
Ltep. keep them afloat for me please.
Amanda Vanstone will get to serve out the remainder of her term as Italian ambassador. Ambassadors will be replaced as their terms expire.
“Rudd rules out purge of diplomats” - http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/20/2095385.htm
Socrates-Despite their similarities, Downer and Pyne detest each other. Pyne has always been pro-Tip. Downer will not be encouraging the Lib machine to lift one finger to help Pyne over the line. I have mixed feelings about Pyne. He clearly is intelligent and hard-working in his electorate. When my sister was stabbed in Spain, he helped evacuate her to London (she is fine). I’m not sure about the rumours and I don’t care much anyway. But I have met him through work and he really gave me the creeps as pompous and self-obsessed. His hard-line pro-Christian stances mean I will be glad to see the end of him. And Mia Handshin is fantastic! She can take Kate Ellis’s seat in the TV spot behind Rudd as PM.
Diogenes. What is it with SA Labor… Cornes, Ellis, Handshin?
Also, this poll was done before this latest workchoices secret files fiasco which should be more worrying to the government in the last few days of an election than any concievable opinion poll. No government wants embarresment in there last week as seen in 96 with the incident regarding the bogus letters to ralph willis
but if its so good in the marginals, why all this - ‘We’ll have to wait late into the night for WA’s results’ palaver from Fran-gipani this AM??
Doesn’t this “secret workchoices file” thing dovetail very nicely with the “you can’t trust them not to take it further line from Rudd.
It’s almost as if Rudd scripted it - not that I am suggesting he did.
131 middle man - only that they have bloody good taste in women.
Diogenes,
Regarding Pyne, I too couldn’t care less about the rumours, which were a pretty nasty little smear. But the way he used his wife politically himself in the woman-to-woman letter was really dissappointing. I was going to vote against Howard, but now I will be voting against Pyne and Howard at the same time. Also, some of his personal electoral promises for Sturt really are nonsense. He says he will fix the Brittania roundabout yet he hasn’t given any extra road funding to the relevant Councils, or gotten it included on the AusLink network. So he can’t possibly do it.
LTEP
I too will miss the Dems, especially Andrew Bartlett, who has a conscience and opposed WorkChoices. But here in SA I don’t think they have any candidates of that caliber left.
Flash
howard was gorn the moment Worstchoices was introduced
this single Act was the most arrogant piece of social engineering yet seen in this country
howard got in on the basis of fear and has used the ’scare’ card to maintain power.
Now most of Australia is scared of howard.
I could be cynical and suggest it has a lot to do with our State Labor leaders, Rann and esp Foley. Foley is well-known to like to surround himself with gorgeous females. The Rann Govt is very media savvy (he was ajourn after all) and know that attractive people get more votes, about 2% evidently. Did you know that attractive people (matched for other characteristics) are more likely to be found not guilty by a jury, get a lesser sentence and are more likely to get parole than non-attractive people?
Howard was very much calm and playing down expectations this far out in 04. I remember on the sunday program, he discretely and calmly said that he expected to win but thought it would be close. Such actions the norm when an incumbant govt exects victory. No such demenour this time and whilst the lib supporters may think that they are going to win and the labor supporters are worried, id like to see them deny that there is a significant swing.
Diogenes
Quite right about evidence on attractive people. We are a shallow lot at heart. That is why I gave up on a life of crime and pursued an engineering career.
Spot on, Flash @ 120 - I think you’ve described how many of us are feeling.
I thought Antony Green was pretty chirpy about the ALP’s chances last night on Lateline, so I took heart from that (although he did seem to suffer a slight spasm at one stage a little like JWH’s during the Great Debate.)
This is a UNIQUE opportunity for like minded (most) bloggers to have SOME effect
on the “right wing ” Newspapers in Sydney and Melbourne ??????
(sorry other states you only get one paper a day ..Murdoch’s)
My thought was someone setting a blog to encourage a network of like minded people to encourage HeraldSun (Melbourne) readers and Daily Telegraph (Sydney)
readers to respectively SWITCH to the more even handed the ‘Age’ (Melbourne) and the ‘Sydney Morning Herald’ (Sydney)
Do not know how to set up a blog but if someone out there knows and can do it , maybe we can hurt the ‘right wing’ press where it hurts…in their pocket (via circulation)
????
Diogenes. When i left QLD to find a career in Sydney my mum gave me the advice “Don’t worry good looking people always have a better chance at getting a job”. Unfortunately my mum was a bit biased about my looks. Lol!
Centrebet is changing quickly again. Labor shortening to $1.20 and Libs $4.60.
The head of Newspoll on Skynews this morning for 30 minutes with Helen Dailey, reckons the following.
1.Labor to win because of consistency of polls throughout campaign, but the swing is patchy. An electoral pendulum will not indicate how many seats.
2. No mention throughout interview of Margin of Error.
3. Newspoll’s s 2.3 error of 2004 was only in the 2 PP. Their Primary vote estimate was accurate. This year they have returned to the method of calculating 2PP which they used before 2004 error-prone method.
3. There’s less than 10% undecideds, but in the past week they have swung to Howard, so if nearly all remaining undecideds swing to Howard, then……?
4. Howard’s satisfaction rating is “good” for such a long time in office, as is Howard’s closing the gap for Preferred PM to 4% less than Rudd for same reason.
5. Rudd’s near record 64% satisfaction rating is irrelevant since it merely rates him as Leader of Opposition.
6. Team Howard’s lead as better economic managers is significant. Team Rudd’s leads as better managers for education and climate change are mere “social issues”.
7. Younger voters are supporting Rudd because many of them actually consider “social issues” more important than economic management. He reckons this is entirely due to their ignorance from having never experienced a bad economy.
8. He generally sounded apologetic that his poll couldn’t have given more encouragement to Team Howard.
9. Helen asked a few good questions, but she then swallowed whatever explanations/excuses he gave, no matter how much they were just his personal opinion and how little based on the polls, e.g. Hockey will retain North Sydney, despite being Member for Workhoices (Helen’s term for Hockey), and Bennelong won’t vote against Howard just because he’s the PM.
Looks like Therese Rein has taken another punt on the Ruddster.
An interesting perspective on political commentators and polls going into the 1996 election:
http://blogs.theage.com.au/koutsoukis/archives/2007/11/what_they_said.html?page=2#comments
Obviously some similarities. In fact if you go through interview transcripts of Keating in the 1996 campaign you see a lot of similar scare tactics that Howard is employing. Keating warned that if Howard was elected the economic gains over the 80s and 90s would just disappear… that his front bench did not inspire confidence etc. etc.
Hemingway. I find rather odd that pollsters dismiss their own polls. hardly gives the rest of us cause to be confident.
More fibs for Labor could cost them dearly like in La Trobe.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22787065-662,00.html
Labor campaign letter misleads voters
“Labor’s star candidate in La Trobe, Rodney Cocks, wrote to families this month spruiking his credentials as a parent and mortgage holder. But Labor confirmed late yesterday that he has no children.”
Hmmm rather like Rudd saying Rosanna Harris would get money off her rent when she wouldn’t. But they are politicians aren’t they what do we expect?
Flash and Jude
Fear not, the Rodent knows he is gone. Look at the latest national Newspoll at the Australian (54/46 2pp). Since the start of the campaign Howards approval rating is steady and his disapproval rating has actually worsened. By contrast, Rudd’s approval rating has gone up. The rusted on Liberals will still make the same mistake, but the swing voters are going solidly behind Labor, and nobody is even discussing the possibility of Labor voters defecting. There will be a few upsets where strong Liberal candidates will hang on, and the safest seats will never change, but a lot of marginal seats are going to change hands. The Liberals will be crippled. IMO the result will be so clear in House of Reps that the real question will be if they (Labor + Greens) can also control the Senate.
I am too surprised by Fran Kelly. I have heard her ever since she was on work experience on 3RRR in the 80’s.
She is not biased as a Ackerman or Bolt is biased. What irks me is that she seems to basically read what ‘The Australian’ has written and regurgitate it straight without any filters in the morning.
An example. We had the ALP policy launch, and she had Stephen Smith on the next day. What was the first question? It was about what a disaster it was that that ex-minister from the Hawke government was making ads for the Liberal party. She was making a big play for it: ‘But it was a member of the Hawke Government! It is pretty damaging!’
I did not hear such an emphasis about current government members such as Tony Abbott confirming that workers’ rights have been diminished, or this morning Joyce saying that the IR policies of the Coalition and the ALP are the same.
If Fran wants to see how to be impartial she can take a leaf out of Michelle Grattan that she talks with every morning.
Hemingway @ 145, all good. Message: while ALP isn’t exactly underdog it’s still facing fierce contest right down to wire therefore voters shouldn’t be complacent and careless with their votes.
Interesting - and dated? - assumptions about what matters most to voters. Climate change a mere “social issue”? What, survival is a social issue?
142,
I consider myself a left leaning Labor voter. I live in SW Sydney in a safe Labor seat. But prior to the last few days, I wouldn’t give the DT the time of day in the print edition. Their pro Howard sentiments made me sick to my stomach. SMH the reverse. HOWEVER, due to the endorsements this year, I have totally changed my point of view. I now am happy to pick up a DT from the news stand on occasion and won’t ever again buy the SMH. I am not going there. EVER.
Labor has got a lot of credit in this department. The day a Liberal tells the truth will be a red letter one…
Julie. i agree. I’ve been quite disappointed in the SMH over the past two years. Apparently there is alot of internal issues going on at the paper. low staff morale etc.
Is Fran Kelly the one who was the politics reporter before Michael Brisseldon(?) ? If so, then I like her, she was good.
And Jason Wood (Lib La Trobe) says Australia doesn’t need nuclear………….gee his boss thinks we do!
Dembo. Its Brissenden i think.
@ 129 Julie Says:
Or to put it another way…
MIDDLEMAN @148
Sorry, I didn’t intend to suggest he dismissed his own polling. On the contrary in terms of the accuracy, he was adamant about reliability of his method of calculating 2PP from the Primary voter data (as opposed to the 2004 method).
It’s just that his interpretations and often unfounded opinions came from his narrow point of view that the electorate is ignorant for not re-electing the Howard government when his polls show voters rate Team Howard better at economic management by such a large margin.
Do you recall PJK’s tax cuts as L A W hmmm guess his promise in 1993 was a lie too.
A summary of the campaign polling, broken down into four periods over five weeks can be found here:
http://www.ozforums.com.au/viewtopic.php?id=2004
Thanks Glen for coming up with this trivia. Again it is this crap that excites you but it will mean nothing out there in voter land. Don’t get too excited.
Hey Glen, Keating must have been one of those ‘economic conservatives’ we are all so enamoured of now.
157#
Who says the tories aren’t a broad church lol!
Glen:
Is Paul Keating campaigning again this election?
Meanwhile, we have John Howard, a proven liar, that we can gladly get rid of.
See what happens when you make policy on the run.
LTEP @127
The reason for the Democrats demise is that they went from “keeping the bastards honest” to “keeping the bastards happy” when they passed JHo’s GST under the leadership of Me(Sla)g Lees. Good riddance.
Gary: It’s all they have, none of these things would even be close to a .1% of a swing in an electorate. These are canceled by own goals like ‘hiding Workchoices Mk II’, ‘$10m for rain out of nothing’, Auditor-General’s report, Abbott and all the other stuff.
161 Glen- That quote is correct. Team Rodent’s problem is that, having been in for 11 years, the list of lies is very long and won’t be forgotten until there is a change of Government. Comrade Adams has a good article on it in the Oz.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/phillipadams/index.php/theaustralian/comments/pms_porkies_are_a_true_indicator/
Gary Bruce why should i be excited about seeing Howard 8 points behind in the last week??
I will be very unhappy if we are smashed and lose valuable MPs and Ministers like Ferguson, Keenan and Brough and Turnbull, if they all lost and we got smashed i would be pissed off but if we lose and these MPs hang on it wont be so bad.
Gary Bruce why can’t we just ban the Citizens Electoral Council they are as bad if not worse than the EB!
Aristotle,
Thanks, that confirms just what we thought, steady as she sinks for the SS Liberal Hopes.
Ok Vote1Maxine… apart from the GST? Anything else?
How come Labor aren’t proposing to abolish the GST anymore by the way?
Glen, what do you think of Ferguson providing the application for the Exclusive Brethren to acquire parliamentary lobbyist passes?
I wasn’t aware you supported the religious fanatic faction of the party.
Just heard a Lib ad on commercial radio in Sydney. Tacked onto their usual interest rates fear ad was:
“[and Labor are all] environmental extremists.”
Honestly now: name me a demographic *outside* Liberal Party staffers that even know what an “environmental extremist” is, or would ever associate Labor with being one??
Perhaps just another firewall ad to shore up the all important 55+ climate-skeptic sillly-old-git demographic?
Glen. My god! I think you’ve hit on something that we can all agree on. The Citizens Electoral Council is just plain odd.
173
I voted Democrats in 1998, but since the GST deal, never again.
A party that prides itself on ‘keeping the bastards honest’, then cutting a deal with them, loses all credibility.
Unfortunately for the Democrats, linking up with John Howard will cause their demise.
The Liberals are probably thinking the same thing.
Heres a classic. In the Adelaide Messenger a piece on Bob Day the member for Makin.The headline,”Day:it should be okay to underpay”.I hope all the Makin voters read it.
Re: The Dems Demise.
Does anyone believe they can regain their position in Aust politics? And if so what will it take to do it?
I don’t but from what i know of Ferguson he doesn’t seem like a bad chap.
Yes sure we don’t like Family First or the Greens as they represent the extremes of politics but why should cults be able to run in elections. Next the Scientologists will run!
The only voters who support them are members of their cult. Get rid of em i say its like having the EB stand for elections it’s a joke.
And I’m sure someone’s made this point before, but does anyone else think that the final guy who does the:
“Authorised by B Loughnane Liberal Party Canberra Spoken by Dick Wadd”
bit sounds kinda like an evil Sith Lord? It’s a sign of their unpopularity they couldn’t find a single person to speak those words who doesn’t sounds utterly monster-from-a-sci-fi-movie-sinister?
No middle man, the Democratics have been labelled as finished. Once you get labelled as finished you’re finished. Perception is everything.
MM only if its a DD election after this one, then the Dems have a chance to get back in with reduced quotas. I hope the Dems stay because the Greens can’t co-operate with both sides of politics them Dems can.
Glen
Maybe I’m still mad at Pig-Iron Bob Menzies selling iron Ore to the Japanese just before the war started, but I don’t actually need to go back quite that far to find a reason to vote against Howard. Similarly, if you need to go back to incidents that happened before Rudd entered parliament to argue against voting for Labor, me thinks you are a desperate man.
Is it just me or does Gerard Henderson remind you of Penfold from Danger Mouse?
Julie
The SMH editorial is like a tumour that grows on the side of the paper. Its always there and you can rely on it to go with whatever dogs breaksfast the coalition serves up. Expect the same on Saturday…
Re Fran Kelly - about the best thing you could say about her is that shes competent. Ie she doesn’t trip over the news bulletin or get lost for words. Other than this she’s superficial, irritating, driven by the MSM agenda, and lacks any real political substance. I don’t really care who she votes for, I suspect she might be apolitical, but she is has clearly felt the rod of Mark Scott on her back and like Triolli she wants to be a good girl. Telling the bennelong crowd to be quite or ‘we might get in trouble’ says it all really..Pathetic
Her understanding of polls is a joke and her questions are often loaded with suppositions that are highly contestable. Asking Malcom Fraser if he voted labor was about the level of integrity we’ve come to expect from Fran.
So are people suggesting that the Dems should have blocked supply to the Liberals, even though the GST was part of their platform (not in the first election but certainly the second). I think that would have been irresponsible.
The marginals which are mostly outer suburban are likely swinging a lot less than seats in the Inner City which include a few safe Liberal ones which would be oh my god seats on election night, look out for North Sydney, Ryan, Kooyong, Higgins, Sturt and Boothby.
The Dems would still be around if Labor won the last election. It’s the safe house for all those wet Libs who know that Labor is in power and want some checks and balances. Given the preference deals, we won’t see that this year, but they might just make a come back next Senate election, especially if it is a DD.
Don’t know if anyone has posted this yet, but it’s an hilarious example of what is wrong with the MSM. This is FRONT PAGE of the treeware Daily Telegraph today:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22786277-5012863,00.html
“Labor’s ‘tradie’ caught in the act
By day, he wears the faded blue collar work gear of a disgruntled Howard Battler in Labor’s election campaign television assault.
By night, however, actor Trent Bowater throws off the shackles of the costume department’s tradie rags to become “Robbee” Williams - impersonator extraordinaire.
In a major embarrassment for the ALP, it can be revealed the real lives of the professional actors driving anti-Government sentiment through their hard-luck stories.”
A major embarrassment? Paying an actor to act in an ad?
The Dem’s went backwards beginning with Kernot’s departure and then the split post GST.
Also, they used to occupy the middle ground between the ALP and the Liberals but now they are to the left of the ALP.
Luke:
Hell yeah.
“So are people suggesting that the Dems should have blocked supply to the Liberals”
No, blocking supply refers to not passing a budget. They should have stood firm on the GST which they were mandated to oppose.
187 middle man
The popular vote was against the GST.
And whilst the GST was a reasonable idea in theory.
The compromise GST made life just as difficult as the old system.
This has subsequently wasted billions in advertising, and left us with a tax system almost as complex as before.
Ask any small business owner.
On contemporary newspaper reading habits:
I had occasion to travel to Melbourne yesterday on business. It got me out of western Sydney at time when it was possible to be somewhat contemplative on the train as we travelled east in dawn’s early light.
When I wor a lad people used to read newspapers on their way to and from work. Or a book or a magazine. Yesterday hardly anyone was reading at all. A fair majority just stared vacantly into space with or without music player buds in their ears. The contrast seemed greater at the airport. You used to have to be real quick to get the hostie to give you a paper once you had taken your seat. Now stacks of SMHs and DTs lie virtually untouched in the gateway area although they are quite free to take.
The Democrats were killed by one person: Meg Lees. Never forget that grubby deal she did with Howard to bring in the GST. It’d be a shame to lose good people like Andrew Bartlett, but the Dems are screwed!
Julie @ 153
Spot on about SMH. Their editorial’s all year long are as far right on industrial relations as whatever’s in the secret WorkChoices plan that Howard and Costello won’t release to the FOI request.
Quite often, they will write an editorial on the same day as Ross Gittins, their economics expert of 25 or so years, contradicting point by point any criticisms he has made of the Howard government’s financial or I.R. policies.
Also, I still get a wave of nausea every time I recollect the garbage they wrote last Fed election to justify not giving any recommendation to vote. Obviously, this was a cowardly way to avoid offending 3/4 of their readers, but they sanctimoniously congratulated themselves for being above making such recommendations. I wonder whether they will chicken out again this time.
Only Ross Gittins, Mike Carlton and Peter Fitzgerald Files (on Sunday) are still worth reading, unless one thinks Annabel Crabb is clever and amusing, which I never do.
As far as I’m aware the Democrats are able to vote based on conscience at any given vote. Their philosophy, also as far as I’m aware, is to amend where possible rather than to just block. This means that they seek concessions to lessen harsh (but not overly harsh) legislation.
Was the GST overly harsh legislation? I don’t know that can be argued. It was certainly unpopular, but that’s neither here nor there.
90% of the readership of the SMH disagrees with the editorial line taken.
It doesn’t matter how much the editors advocate the return of the Howard government, the readers and letter writers overwelmingly want a change of govt.
Popular vote or not, and not withstanding the implementation of the policy. The fact remains that the Libs put it to the people and won office. I think the Dems needed to respect that and not abuse their senate power. By the way i’m not arguing this point cos i vote lib, quite the opposite…
As the Rodent is on 7.30 tonight, I’ve scanned the papers for what’s getting attention. Kerry has a lot to choose from
AWB-Downer knew
Debnan-Should have signed Kyoto
FOI blocks revealing Serfchoices extension
Regional Rorts
$280M of taxpayers funded advertising
Geldof-Aussies mean and pathetic
Turnbull pays Raindance friend $11M
Dissent in Lib ranks over Turnbull ambition
That should just about take up the program.
# 179 middle man Says: November 20th, 2007 at 10:47 am
There’s nothing they can do. Meg Lees sank their party when they moved them to the right and right into the fold of the liberal party. She split them down the middle, and killed the party. They had a chance of surviving if they could have kept their cool when Natasha Stott Despoja was given the job, and rallied behind her. But all they proved was that their organizational skill was shown to be woefully lacking.
And now the only thing the Dems would do, because of Lees, would be to grab a percent or two from the coalition vote. The other side of their party has been completely enveloped by the ALP.
Why are so many people talking about a DD? It’s just plain ridiculous.
And, incidentally, a DD does not make it easier for small parties to get senators. Under a DD the quotas are halved, so for the big parties, instead of a getting a half a quota which then flows on in preferences, which then elects a small party senator, they get a full DD quota, and nothing flows on in preferences.
The DLP was wiped out in the 1974 DD for exactly this reason.
If Newspoll is right (54/46) and Galaxy is right in the marginals it polled (52/48) there’s got to be some mighty big swings going on elsewhere. (Do we know when the Galaxy poll was done?).
Asanque
Personally I was happy with the Democrats doing a GST deal, but to me the problem was that first they did not exclude education etc (hence contravened party policy) and second they did not hold Howard to it. There was supposed to be a corresponding reform of business tax to reduce known means of tax avoidance, but Howard simply deferred the inquiry as soon as he got the GST through. This was a blatant doublecross but Meg Lees never called Howard on it. Just as Kernot was too close to Labor, I think Lees was too close to Howard. Her defection was particularly damaging, because unlike Kernot she didn’t even resign.
Ltep. my point exactly.
NB
You’ve gotta laugh at that scoop. We’ve got funding rorts, secret IR plans, environmental catastophe, AWB whistleblowers etc etc and the poor old terrorgraph sensationally tells us that the ALP uses actors in its Ads!! Always ahead of the game is the tele. Next they’re gonna tell us that Eric Bana really isn’t the incredible hulk.
Fairfax Chairman Ron Walker - ex Lib money man - won’t allow the SMH or the Age to editoralize in favour of Rudd.
As for the GST, the Libs opposed the ALP’s idea of a simplified BAS for small businesses, only to introduce one a few years later sprucing it as their own idea.
The ALP has flagged many of the current governments policies as red tape nightmare for small businesses. Even WorkChoices is a red tape nightmare. So much for the small government conservatives that the Libs are supposed to be.
201 Diogenes
You could add: Labor pays actors to star in ads - scandalous!
If the Daily Telegraph endorses Rudd, I’ll faint from shock! Judging by today’s front page, they are firmly back in the Howard camp.
How much was Brian Courtice paid to appear in Coalition ads? I doubt he did them for nothing
LTEP Passing the GST was more than enough.
middle man, the Democrats are finished. Had Natasha been leader instead of Me(sla)g Lees, I doubt that the GST would have passed (she would’ve demanded too many amendments). I believe that Natasha would have been very much stronger in opposing JHo than Lees. As it was she was white-anted by her fellow senators. I doubt if there will ever win another senate seat again .
Come to it, is Abbott on the Labor payroll?
To be fair to Meg, she said during the campaign that the Dems would support a GST so long as it excluded ‘fresh food’. Lord knows why fresh food is so important, do poor people eat more fresh food? Anyways, she didn’t do anything outside of her mandate.
The thing that made it worse for the Democrats was that Brian Harradine said he would not support the GST because it was inherently regressive, so the Democrats were the party that made the GST happen, and it was largely the Dems model of the GST that we now how have.
It split them down the middle (I think about half of them actually voted against it) and turned people like me off them forever. That and they helped pass Reiths first wave of IR reforms.
At the end of the day, the Democrats probably got more of their voters from the left than they ever did from the Tories, so passing those fundamentally conservative bits of legislation really did alienate them from their base.
alpal. You are spot on. The management at Fairfax are doing their best to screw staff. They ain’t the nice guys of the media they like to make out. They would love Workchoices Mark II. Its all about moeny it that joint. Its run by an ex-All Black captain… he couldn’t give two hoots about balance views in Australian journalism and how it contributes to the nations political discourse.
Vote1Maxine, you didn’t answer my question regarding why Labor is not proposing to abolish the GST.
Surely if the Democrats must be punished for passing the GST that means Labor should be promising to get rid of it.
• Downer leaving to campaign in Seat du Jour: Singapore
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/downer-knew-about-awb-kickbacks/2007/11/19/1195321695303.html
Darn, yes and it could be in Labor marginals, safe Labor seats and seats they don’t have a chance to win from the Coalition. There’s no rule that says the swing has to be just where they want or need it to be.
Galaxy’s reputation will be in taters on Sunday morning…
Howard on Sky about to make “rail and road” announcement “affecting all of Tasmania”. In his preliminary remarks, he is referring to his forestry policy announcement in the last week of the last campaign. It would seem he is desperately hoping he can do something similar here.
HH
The sunday tele and SunHerald in sydney endorsed Labor on the weekend but they did it holding their breath and wincing. It was clearly half hearted and more about giving a touch of balance (in the face of a potential lab landslide) before both the main papers - the SMH and the OZ completely cane Labor on Saturday: ‘not the time for change, style over substance, proven coalition track record, competent govt, the howard economic miracle etc etc
Oh, lets not forget that Keating promised in 93 that if Hewson won that the ALP would not block the GST, and Fightback in general, in the Senate. I think it was more of a ploy to scare people in to not voting for the Libs.
He says $470m to build and upgrade road and rail throughout Tasmania. Desperate last acts surely.
180
Yes sure we don’t like Family First or the Greens as they represent the extremes of politics but why should cults be able to run in elections. Next the Scientologists will run!
—-
I always thought Ayn Rand was the L. Ron Hubbard of political philosophy. Guess that makes the Lib’s the Scientologists of oz politics?
Julie at 129 and
Albert Ross at 159
Don’t knock Amanda. She will have a very interesting story to tell.
About how her Ministerial career was mainly about being given a plastic bag and scooper, and then viciously condemned for missing bits laid by others.
It could be that if she wants more time in Rome to, let’s say, write a book about it all, Kevin PM might be gentleman enough to let her have it.
I think I heard Howard mistakenly refer to a town in Tasmania as “Baghdad”.. Can’t be sure though.
HAhahah… its been a long time since I’ve heard a reference to Ayn Rand! what a fruit loop. Thanks for that Bakunin! good times.
My advice to Howard would be to camp himself in WA for the rest of the week.
That’s his last hope, taking Cowan and Swan off Labor and holding the rest of his WA seats.
Does anyone know where Rudd is campaigning today in Sydney? Any chance he’s going to Bennelong or Wentworth?
LTEP
A bit disingenuous. Removing the GST would require massive amounts of money, time and political capital. It would be electoral suicide. That’s why.
i think we all need to move on from the GST….
220
I guess that means that Galaxy users will be spitting chips . . .
# 217 Lose the election please Says: November 20th, 2007 at 11:03 am
Who said they should? I support the GST, and I voted for the coalition in 1998. I think it should be applied to everything so that the entire tax law could be simplified.
But the discussion wasn’t about whether the GST was a good law. It was about why the democrats, because of Meg Lees, are on a one-way ticket to oblivion.
Has anyone else noticed that Betfair is now taking bets on the next Lib leader? Is this new?
Costello $1.45
Turnbull $5
Nelson $8.80
Abbott $42
Downer $20
Bishop $75
Howard $5
Yep, there is a town called Baghad in Tassie. !
The fairfax papers seem a bit scitzophrenic. On one hand they have a readership that is left wing and a few left leaning writers, but on the other hand the editorial line is right off the plant and the SMH has a majority of coservative columists these days:
Monday - Paul Sheehan - Tory
Tuesday - Gerrard Henderson - Tory
Wednesday - Ross Gittens - Non Aligned, critical of both sides.
Thursday - Mirand Devine - Raving Tory
Friday - Hartcher - swings both ways
Saturday - Alan Ramsay - Left
Who are they trying to impress with this array of conservative cronies? Every time they write a column the letters pages fill up with retorts.
The New York times is an unashamedly progressive paper. Why can’t we have 1 in Sydney?
JFC - Maybe a voice over at the end something like ‘welcome to work choices the 2nd wave - be scared, be very very scared’ (too melodramatic?)
Bad news for those predicting a miraculous Sri Lankan victory.
They’re 6 wickets down LOL
The GST is also now the normative base that Federal and State governments, as well as business, has been working off for a decade. Realistically, it cannot be reversed from here.
7
HH Now 7
Coalition is back to $5.10 on centrebet
8
7]
8
Now 8, brilliant throw for a run out
ShowsOn Flash
Too fast for me
@ 229 Howard Hater Says:
And on Sunday morning he could emerge as the Generalissimo of the WA Nationalists and by 5.00 pm, having summarily dealt with Len and family in the Hutt River Province, have himself crowned Imperator with Hyacinth as his consort.
I guess the pater familius aint gonna get his analogy from the Sri Lankans…
Pi I’d agree Meg Less was a large part of the problem. But most of it I’d say its the media pronouncement that they’re over, the endless jokes about them etc.
Sean, politics isn’t easy. You have to make tough calls. If the GST is inherently unjust (which I’m partially inclined to agree with) then it should be gotten rid of, no matter the cost. It’s the same argument with pokies, to get rid of pokies would result in revenue problems for the states (bar WA). That doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be done. The right solution is rarely an easy one to make.
Wow, Labor into 1.17 on centrebet…. that’s the lowest this year.
According to Tim Dunlop the last Newspoll is going to be released on Friday.
I thought they would survey Thursday and Friday and release it on Saturday.
ShowsOn
Gosh, yes the Sri lanakns are 8/290 now, and they were supposed to have the same chance of winning as Howard. Looks like even the irrelevant statistics aren’t favouring Howard now. LOL
And Mike Kelly in Eden Menaro is into $1.12
I know this is not on point but I received my increased mortgage repayment letter yesterday… I think many people will be receiving these in the next couple of days.. can’t think of any worse timing for the LNP… It is all well and good to read about the mortgage going up.. but when you see what your new repayments are going to be it becomes reality… if the LNP are trying to get a 2% swing in the last few days and people in the mortgage belt are receiving their letters I think it is a task akin to pushing the proverbial up hill…
middleman and LTEP:
We can argue all day about whether the Democrats deal was okay or not.
However, history will be the judge that Meg Lees decision to sell out the Democrats to Howard on this point, was one of the major factors in killing the Democrats.
And I say that as a past Democrat voter, and also being advised to vote democrats on http://www.howdoivote.com.au
Not to say I won’t put them reasonably high on my HTV, but a lot of disgruntled Democrats have moved elsewhere.
CentreBet probably has been hit with a huge bet on Labor.
Just checked: Coalition 5.1 / Labor 1.17
Xmas comes early?!
I think a bet like $2 on Mike Symon in Deakin is an absolute bargain.
Many voters are starting to tune in for the first time right now - and what they are hearing is a veritable deluge of bad news for Coalition - a nightmare scenario for Howard even if he had been competitive at the start of the week, which of course he was not.
*WorkChoices Mk 11 cover-up is an incredibly bad look, feeding directly into Labor script
*Obscene advertising spending splurge
*The Howard and Costello fantasy double act that was even ridiculed by arch-conservative Neil Mitchell on 3AW as Oscar-worthy
*More reminders of AWB ineptitude
Actually, I said that the Sri Lankans have a *better* chance of winning than Howard does.
Even with 8 wickets down, I would suggest this is still the case
Whatever view one personally takes of Meg Lees passing the GST it exposed a deep chasm within the Dems. They were trying to appeal to two constituencies - the pissed off small “l” liberals defecting from the Coalition and left-wing voters pissed off with Labor’s move to the right under Hawke and Keating. The younger generation of Democrats, who came into politics in the 80s belonged to the 2nd constituency. When Lees did the deal the party imploded.
LTEP - There’s already been plenty of informed analysis by people on this site who know much more about these things than you or I to show that most of the swing is occurring where it will count - in vulnerable coalition seats. Haven’t you been paying attention?
NB: Quite a few of the agencies have had next liberal leader up before, although some have taken it down.
Flash: Deakin is an interesting one. I laid a wager on it earlier this year when I thought the odds would come down, but it is one of the few seats that has not moved much. I think there is better value elsewhere (cough Bennelong)
On the Democrats. I think the real reason that many people (including me) turned away from them was not that they made the deal, but that they got screwed by Howard. At the end of the negotiations they walked away with less that half what they wanted. They were bargaining from a position of strength, so this highlighted to me that they were essentially incompetent. I think many people came to the same conclusion.
Ashley@258, agreed. Still an infinately better chance.
Sangakkarra’s a absolute champ - world class.
But yes, SL has about as much chance as Howard winning the election.
197,
I read Annabel Crabb and Ramsey in the online SMH and stories specific to the election but nothing else. I can’t even remember who they endorsed in the state election in March. Were they conservative with that one as well?
So, we’ve got one more Newspoll to go on election morning. When will the sampling for that be carried out? I presume Wednesday and Thursday. If so, that will be fascinating to see how the Workchoices II and other stories have bitten.
And are there any other polls still to come in?
Darn, how can you possibly know where the swing is occurring. We won’t know for sure until election night. What we have are marginal polls showing modest swings, polls in ’safer’ Lib seats (eg. Wentworth, North Sydney, Bennelong) showing quite large swings but possibly not large enough to win on the night and polls showing huge swings in Labor-held marginals or other seats (Adelaide, Hindmarsh, Lilley).
I don’t need to read experts who will tell me what to think. I do a bit of thinking on my own.
Glen says - “Gary Bruce why can’t we just ban the Citizens Electoral Council they are as bad if not worse than the EB!” If you tell me who they are Geln and what they do I may agree with you. But who cares about them anyway?
Those Centrebet odds are amazing!
GB - bloody whackos. I’m not sure it’s worth banning them, if only because this hilarious website might go under: http://www.cecaust.com.au/
Mike 254
Your mortgage repayment letter is exactly on point. When Poss did his analysis of the link between interest rates and voting patterns, he pointed out that there was a slight lag as people started feeling the effects of any rise. If Poss was right (and I think he was) the statistical question was whether the electoral harm would flow through against Howard before the election. As it turned out, Howard has campaigned poorly and failed to regain any momentum anyway, but arguably, it can only go downhill as people start getting those letters in mortgage belt marginals all over Australia.
Howard is saying Rudd is getting cocky, but I think Howard is getting delusional at the same time. He is saying the Libs will hold the 2 Tassie marginals.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/20/2095570.htm
ok then, its settled. The Dems are dead. lack of backbone and a divergence of internal views, ie wet libs v non-union aligned/new left. fair call. hmmm…. so who does a left leaning progressive join if they dont want to have to deal with all the shenanigans that the unions bring to the labor party? and the greens isn’t the answer I’m sorry. they have yet to prove they can really talk about the full spectrum of issues with confidence, and at times reason.
265 - Julie, the SMH endorsed Debnam at the last state election and did so in a 100% serious way. At least the Tele, in endorsing Debnam acknowledged that he was a) a dud and b) wasn’t going to win.
Sangakkara: 150
I suggest someone starts a betting book on just how low the Centrebet Labor odds will go. I say they could get down to $1.12.
Gary Bruce, they’re a party based on the visions of ‘American political activist and conspiracy theorist Lyndon LaRouche’
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizen%27s_Electoral_Council
The CEC’s platform has a variety of planks. Some, such as “the establishment of a National Bank and State Banks to provide loans at 2% or less to agriculture (family farms), industry and for infrastructure development” are traditional policies of the political left in Australia, now abandoned by the Australian Labor Party. Others, such as “the repeal of all Federal and State anti-union legislation passed over the past several years, beginning with the Federal 1996 Workplace Relations Act,” are shared with all parties of the left and centre. A prominent CEC policy sometimes associated with the right is a zero tolerance criminal law enforcement approach to drug issues. The CEC also aligns itself with global warming skeptics; CEC activists at a recent[clarify] televised debate used questions from the audience to make statements comparing the theory of anthropogenic global warming to eugenics and Nazism, declaring it to be “Hitler-Nazi race science”.[
BV: The only question is for those who jumped on at 1.87 for the ALP win, whether its worthwhile hedging the bets
The Sri Lankans are about as hopeless as Tony Abbott LOL
When will a decent cricket side emerge to take on our blokes? I’d like a genuine contest. A second XI of Aussie Pura Cup players taking on Ponting’s men would be preferable to this farce.
WTF is going on with the betting markets? Have they seen some new polling that looks bad for the Rodent?
Haven’t caught up with the earlier posts yet. Does anyone else share my view that the Victorian teachers strike tomorrow is very irresponsible at such a crucial political time. The Libs are already running ads warning of wall to wall strikes if Labor is elected - and this one’s not likely to get the same kind of sympathy as the nurses strike, because it’s right at the time the kids are doing their exams. Not a good look - I reckon it could cost a few votes.
Darn Says:
Galaxy (as william pointed out) implies a swing of 5.5% in those selected marginals. Newspoll implies a swing of 6.8% overall. So, taking MOEs into account this is only weak evidence of the swing in the marginals being less than the overall swing.
The evidence all year has been pointing towards a key variable in determining the swing is the Liberal vote - those electrates with higher liberal votes look like swinging more.
I think this is more likely to result in the ALP getting more seats than the pendulum would predict rather than less.
102.5 hours until the count starts
234, I would put my money on Bishop or Nelson at those odds, but I wouldn’t get caught betting on that question as I am a left leaning Labor voter
middleman: You fall into the same boat as I do.
None of the parties really appeals to me.
I voted informal last election out of disgust.
However, at this point, I am voting greens just because they are the next best choice.
So no more polls until Friday?
Surely Nielsen is doing a poll in Bennelong?
HH, They tried that in the one-dayers remember?
Steve Waugh kyboshed it because the crowd always barracked for the “seconds”. They went damn close too, from memory.
Workchoices II:
The Government recognises that there may be people who are attracted to some aspects of independent contracting (particularly the freedom to contract about one’s own terms and conditions without being restricted by workplace relations legislation) but who would prefer to be employees. This has led some to suggest there should be a third choice of working arrangements: being an employee, but being free to contract without the current restrictions imposed by legislation and industrial instruments. While the Government considers that this concept is worthy of further consideration, this proposed instrument is beyond the scope of this paper.
From a discussion paper released in 2005 but no longer available on the DEWR website.
i did too, with labor getting my preference. Not matter what my gripes with those two are they dont compare to my gripe with Howard’s and his vision for Oz.
Why was that article about Downer knowing about AWB bribes not written by Overington? She would have been the first person that guy would have approached with the story. I suspect she has either been suspended by the GG or declined to run it as it wouldn’t fit with her well-known political agenda.
I haven’t seen Caroline Overington’s by-line since the Wentworth scandal broke.
Rates Analyst: I remember barracking for Australia A.
Re 258,
Ashley Says:
Hmm …. you obviously haven’t seen Murali bat much
….. both Sri Lanka and Howard are cactus 
Nothing new needs to happen. Time passes, the hours tick by, and everything stays the same. The closer we get to the election, the lower the odds will go — unless we get a poll which suggests that Howard will somehow pull through. Dunno how low they’ll go… I wouldn’t have thought much lower than 1.14-1.15.
Maybe she is too busy trying to get a root?
HH @ 278 : The problem is that the Sri Lankans are supposed to be the 2nd best team. The divide between Australian and the rest of the world when it comes to test cricket is getting worse. I wish the West Indies get their act together, that used to be some fun.
It could come down to the fact that the other countries are focusing on ODI’s and the 20/20 games. While I think the ODI’s still have a place, the 20/20 games are a farce.
Asanque and Middle man
We are not far apart. Green with Labor prefernce for me too. I would vote Dems in the Senate if I lived in Qld but not here. I still want Labor to do more on climate change and ethical issues like Haneef before they would get my first vote.
Ayn Rand used to get side-tracked in long diatribes on the greatness of unfettered capitalism in her books. From my distant memory.
52/48 is good for the marginals - only need to win them not obliterate, saving some of that 54/46 for the safer Liberal seats. Possum’s analysis is seemingly on the money re the order of swings. Labor seats smallest swing, marginals next then safer Liberal seats.
Newspoll commentator reckons the undecideds are moving to Howard? They guy must be on drugs. The undecideds will be favouring the trend, as usual.
54/46 was probably more like 54.5/45.5 looking at the preferences but not knowing the actual fractions for the primaries. Anyway it is 54+ and I like Possum & Jackmans modelled estimate of the final result. 54-55%
I’ve always contended it was the infighting in 2002 that killed the Democrats.
Remember they won 4 senators in 2001 after the GST was implemented.
LTEP (267) I’ll grant you that experts aren’t always right. But if they really know their stuff they’ll be right much more often than non experts like you and me. That’s why I take what they say on board when formulating my opinions - unlike your good self it seems.
It seems that Caroline’s career at the Australian may be Overington
Howard goes in to bat for Musharraf. Perhaps the Chaser were right when they said Howard would introduce martial law if the polls stayed bad.
Mr Howard said he was quite concerned about the emergency declaration and unrest in Pakistan but had “mixed emotions” about General Musharraf.
“I like General Musharraf, I think he’s been very courageous,” he said.
LTEP and Pancho - Thanks for that info. They sound like a bunch of dills, like EB. I think most people will view these sects/organisations this way.
I don’t think banning is the way to go either. They’re entitled to their warped opinions.
Albert F (288) Thanks for that analysis. Very enlightening.
Agree - disunity is death, especially since the Democrats didn’t have a strong party infrastructure like the two majors.
Diogenes
Yes Howard is not so much a small-l liberal as a Big-F Fascist. He needs to remember that the “free” bit is actually supposed to be MORE important than the “free market” bit.
middleman-
I used to think that The Green’s were too single -issue (ie enviroment)focussed and did not have a good enough grasp of other issues to formulate sensible policy.
Having really looked into it about 4 years ago after my disgust at Labour’s backing of Howard over Tampa, and seeing the democrats as selling out, I was pleasantly surpried. Now I am a candidate at this election.
So, I suggest you get on the website and read up - and let me know what you think.
Cheers, J.
VCBet has also slashed Labor’s odds: 1.18 / 4.5
(it was 1.25 / 3.5 in the past few days)
Ah, democracy at work with the micro-parties like CEC, FF, ONP all trying their best to ‘fix Australia’. Fielding has done nothing except make a fool of himself, ONP was a joke, and the CEC don’t know where they stand with some really leftie policies and some extreme right ones at the same time.
Every election the Senate paper gets bigger and bigger due to new micro-parties making an appearance.
I also think that the “keeping the bastards honest” slogan was good for a certain moment in history. But ultimately it meant that they were only a reactive party and that their existence was always made by reference to a major party, ie we agree, we disagree. In the end they failed to articulate their own unique message that could stand alone withiout reference to the major parties. The greens have managed to do this.
Darn, the ‘experts’ know nothing more than the rest of us. I take what they say on board, but with a grain of salt. People seem to rely on this expert advice to counter any polling which doesn’t look brilliant for Labor.
Labor’s behind in a marginal? Oh well! Safer seats will save the day!
I don’t agree with that logic there that says that must be the case.
Darn - the teachers strike is limited to one day and most schools either maintain a skeleton staff. In fact very few schools as a whole close for the day. Usually only individual classes are affected if at all. As far as the exams are concerned apparently ex teachers are being brought in where necessary to oversee them.
I really don’t see it as being a problem for the Feds.
Yep, the Libs would need to see better polling just to hold their odds steady.
In a two horse race, with ALP needing 16 seats I can’t see the Libs going higher that $6.
For what its worth there is about 60k looking to back the ALP at $1.29 to $1.31 on betfair - not much on the other side.
Darn - the teachers strike is limited to one day and most schools maintain a skeleton staff. In fact very few schools as a whole close for the day. Usually only individual classes are affected, if at all. As far as the exams are concerned apparently ex teachers are being brought in where necessary to oversee them.
I really don’t see it as being a problem for the Feds.
I was a Democrat for many years and thought they/we performed a very valuable role in amending hundreds of pieces of legislation and occasionally blocking bad ones. Democrats really took the trouble to read all pieces of legislation very carefully and many of the proposed amendments were accepted.
It’s sad to see their end but all things must end. The DLP is long gone too.
Family First will most likely fade away in Federal politics.
The Greens on the other hand are the party of the moment. What they have been going on about for years, led by the highly capable Bob Brown, is the survival of life on earth. Life as we know it is genuinely at risk. We have been madly destroying the earth in pursuit of material gain and it’s catching up on us.
The Greens will do very well, perhaps better than ever before, as they should.
I will certainly be voting Greens one, giving the Democrats a sentimental number two and then preferencing Labor. Many in this seat of Richmond will be voting Greens one to give the incoming government a big message about global warming and then Labor two. Likewise the seat of Page.
In the end the Democrats were destroyed by one thing, EGO. The older Senators were jealous of Natasha. Each one wanted to be party leader and they almost all were in turn. It’s sad, but the party’s over.
Kevin Rudd may well be still saying “it’s going to be tight” and John Howard has to say “we can still win” but neither is true.
Particularly after the latest series of revelations about secret WorkChoices plans, Peter Debnam quite rightly supporting Kyoto, Malcolm Turnbull and his crazy rainmaking donation, the election won’t be “tight” at all.
It looks as though even Joe Hockey is in for the chop. The forecast looks good for Mike Bailey. Sunny days ahead.
The simple fact is the Coalition has not a remote hope of winning with its primary stuck at 41%, not a ghost of a chance.
Note that Kevin Rudd is campaigning in “safe” Liberal seats. He’s not campaigning in seats with margins of two or three per cent.
After the coverage in the Courier Mail about what he will do to boost Queensland when he becomes Prime Minister, how many Queenslanders will be voting for John Howard? It’s not in their interests.
I still go for at least 85-62-3 independents (might be a surprise independent), may well be several seats more for Labor.
The latest betting odds say it all.
GB (309) Thanks for that info. Hope you’re right about it not being a problem.
LTEP - just what do you use to make your judgements then if not data and outside info?
The best reason not to ban crazy micro parties is that you can use their membership lists accompanying their AEC application to keep an eye on where the crazies are
If anyone here lives in Bennelong and gets polled today or tomorrow, be sure to let us know. And don’t forget to ask whether it is a Bennelong or a national poll, and when it is coming out!
I think the other thing we should remember about the teachers strike is that it is happening under John Howard.
I do use data, I’ve explained it several times. From the data, the most likely outcome is a relatively comfortable Labor victory. However, also from the data you cannot dismiss the possibility that the Coalition will be returned.
I don’t subscribe to the view that the polls are wrong. I don’t think you can ever conclude that until after an election. All I’m saying is that it’s possible, even given the available evidence for the Coalition to just scrape through.
I reject the notion that we need to sit back and accept the ‘evidence’ provided by ‘experts’ who really know nothing more than any of us.
The End of the Democrats marked the complete victory of political cynicism in Australia. Many people, even those not supporting the Democrats, watched the experiment with a kind of curiousity: Could they defy political gravity and produce a party that really was both beyond politics, and an effective contributor to the process.
The answer was never in doubt, but it was the scale of the brutal, nasty blood-letting and cannibalism that ensured an entire generation of politics watchers would see political idealism for what it is. The popularity of the Greens at present is just a blip and if they control the Senate, for example, there will be a backlash next time around. Prime Minister Rudd will act as effectively as any leader will be able to on the question of climate change.
Hhahahah Barnaby Joyce says he will vote for Labor’s I.R. policy.
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/20/2095273.htm?section=justin
LTEP (308) Your comments imply that all the psephs on the site are so blinded by their prejudices that their judgements cannot be trusted. I have more respect for them than that
Flash it is not a question of acting “as effectively as any leader will be able to on the question of climate change”. We have no option.
He has to act decisively notwithstanding the coal, gas and oil lobbies.
“Able to” is simply not enough.
We are talking here of life as we know it on this planet. Kevin Rudd will not be able to fiddle while the planet burns. If he doesn’t act quickly and effectively in reducing our emissions and persuading other recalcitrant countries such as the USA and China to do likewise then we will pay for the consequences.
We already have a taste of things to come with the ever enduring drought.
That’s absolutely nothing compare to what is to come.
Double D is not an exciting prospect for dear old Barnaby, eh?
LTEP,
None of us know for sure what the outcome will be. I think the betting markets putting about an 80% chance on the ALP have it about right.
Just because Keating’s marginal campain failed in ‘96 doesn’t mean the Libs strategy won’t work. But, objectively, the evidence points to a comfortable ALP win with a chance of it being tight and something need to break the Libs way over the next few days for them to win.
Still a year ago I would have thought the ALP might struggle even improve their current position.
Six months ago I would have expected the final week to be showing 51-52 overall polling.
In the big scheme of things the poll for the ALP are good but, yes, not entirely conclusive - thats what the election is for
So I’ll just worry away the rest of the week and look foward to Saturday Night.
292-that would seem to be the least of her problems. Hopefully her career is overandout.
Thanks Richard and Jen for the info. Hmmm… how fun to have someone from a wholesale funds management career join the greens… of course i’m sure i wouldn’t be the first.
and just on theme music for elections… i just cant get the Gomez track “Bring it on” out of my head…..
If any of you are stressing out about the election (as I was last night and this morning), do what I did - go to the nearest driving range, pick up a large bucket of balls and imagine John Howard’s face on all of them!
It’s the perfect stress-release mechanism ever…
Someone at this blog made a theme song suggestion for Saturday night that is an absolute winner I think.
Like A Rolling Stone..
How does it feel
How does it feel
To be on your own
With no direction home
Like a complete unknown
Like a rolling stone?
Right about now must be the time when sitting MPs and candidates start to have time to freak out/stress:
-most of the set-piece events of the campaign are over;
-pre-poll votes are starting to ramp up;
-advertising blackout is almost here;
-only one-more round of polling to go; and
-leaders are making their final visits to particular States/regions.
I wonder which side feels more confident?
Saw this and pasted it from another blog
To all liberals who say that a return to unionism wil constrict our market. Can you please explain to me why California (the 5th biggest economy in the world and bigger than Australias, has the worlds MOST unionised workforce).
Or maybe their successful economy is actually a lie, you know that thing that JH keeps doing…..
Why hasn’t Rudd pointed this out?
How close can it get?
The varying swings in each state may well decide this election!
Scenario 1: A 3.2% 2PP swing to ALP made up as follows:
NSW +4.6% (6 seats), Vic +0.0% (0 seats), Qld +6.0% (3 seats), SA + 0.8% (3 seats), Tas +2.9% (2 seats), WA +2.1% (2 seats), NT +3.0% (1 seat). Total 17 seats won 0 losses ALP 50.5% 2PP = 77 seats LNP 49.5% 2PP = 71 seats + IND 2 seats. A small win.
Scenario 2: An alternative larger swing (equally plausible):
A 4.2% 2PP swing to ALP made up as follows:
NSW +3.4% (3 seats), Vic +4.8% (still 0 seats), Qld +5.5% (2 seats), SA + 5.3% (still 3 seats), Tas +7.9% (still 2 seats), WA -0.1% (lose 2 seats), NT +5.0% (still 1 seat). Total 11 seats won 2 seats lost ALP 51.5% 2PP = 69 seats LNP 48.5% 2PP = 79 seats + IND 2 seats. A comfortable win for JWH!
These are NOT my predictions, merely an illustration of the effect state variations can have on the final 2PP figures and the seat count.
The 6 winnable seats that vary are NSW: Bennelong, Page, Wentworth, Qld: Blair, WA: Stirling, Hasluck. The 2 potential losses are WA: Cowan, Swan
The 11 won in both scenarios are NSW: Parramatta, Lindsay, Eden-Monaro, Qld: Bonner, Moreton, SA: Makin, Kingston, Wakefield, Tas: Bass Braddon, NT: Solomon.
In Scenario 2 the LNP would hold 12 seats with less than 1% 2PP and a further 7 seats less than 2% 2pp. A 2PP swing to the ALP of 4.7% or more would probably deliver enough of these to give victory in any circumstance. That is ALP 52% 2PP LNP 48% 2PP. That’s what we should watch for on Saturday night.
My personal prediction of ALP 53.7% 2PP still stands (and would deliver 30 seats on the night).
318 LTEP - I must be honest and say I’m buggered if I know what your position is now, the sand keeps on shifting. But like all of us you are entitled to your opinion.
Re Overington,
The GG collective ears must have been burning. She has a new post up.
331 - My view is that the ALP campaign has been too soft and they could have made more out of it.
I.e. they are winning but they could be winning by more.
Then again the Liberal campaign has been a complete shambles.
I just can’t wait to see what LTEP has to say for him/herself on Saturday night…
it will be vindication for the realists.
Just read caroline’s effort. wish i had done something productive with that 45 seconds.
Overington’s article is a complete joke. The Australian’s commentators have now suggested we ignore the polls completely and just “believe” that Howard will win.
Ask yourself this - if the Coalition was leading 54/46, would we even be arguing about the election result? I think not…
I think she must be watching …….
Overinton’s conclusion:
“The election is not over. It is far too close to call.”
BUT is it too close to email?
So who is she hitting on for s#x this week?
Red wombat,
I’m tempted to respond, but I don’t want to get William in trouble…
Overington’s post has a factual error. She says Keating won, even though he was behind in all the polls for 1993. This is untrue, the last three Newspolls before the election were all statistical ties. In fact the 2nd to last one was 50/50.
Here’s an interesting article over at the SMH, on journos and website hits. A salient point for staying away from the GG.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/web/one-hit-wonders-need-not-apply/2007/11/20/1195321743207.html
Flash @ 329
It has to be “Another bites the dust”.
Kochie and Hockey can be rocking to it as each seat goes down.
I don’t think I would get tired of that song on election night, remember we will probably hear it at least 32 times or more.
Maybe a range of songs
Another one bites the for the backbenchers
Something different for the ministers
Something special for Bennelong, two songs, one to farewell howard and one to congratulate Maxine.
RE LTEP’s comments and anxiety about what will really happen, I have some sympathy. The logic side of me says Labor will win - all the evidence is there, but there is a sneaky thought all the time - what if something goes wrong?
One way of looking at the situation is to consider the psephs v. the journalists. I contend that they two groups have fundamentally different pyschological profiles. In Myers -Briggs typology language journalists are generally feeling types while the psephs are thinking types. The journalists go for relationships, the psephs go for logic.
If the situation was reverse and the LNP had been receiving the polls of Labor the commentariate would be pealing the bells on a possible record win for Howard, the destruction of the Labor party and so forth. There would not be the slightest doubt in their mind of LNP victory.
I think when Howard goes down so do they, to the shelves of party hack journalist who let themselves by owned by government.
Not only is time for new government it is time for new journalists and editors.
My theme song for Saturday night involves a rather well known piece made famous by Freddie Mercury
The Dems deserve their demise.
Any party which has the “Alice” doctrine of presenting policies but proudly claiming also that elected members can vote however they like just shows the depth of delusion and stupidity of their supporters.
Their MPs can’t have been blind to the mass Democrat opposition to the GST in any form, yet went ahead and supported it - and Meg Lees was mealy-mouthed when defending herself.
I think we would all remember the grin on Howard’s face as both he and Lees walked down the corridor just after she gave the nod to her party’s death warrant.
Indeed JH was the cat that got the cream - served up on a platter.
The Dems have had (and still do have) some good people. Pity about the party they chose.
Possum has a great post up re Howard’s latest “VOTE FOR ME OR WORKCHOICES GETS IT!” pitch:
“It’s true – they’ve gone mad and eaten Mark Textor”
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/11/20/it%e2%80%99s-true-%e2%80%93-they%e2%80%99ve-gone-mad-and-eaten-mark-textor/
re 348,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sogKUx_q7ig
Coalition / Labor
LassetersSport: 4.75 / 1.19
CentreBet: 4.95 / 1.18
VCBet: 4.5 / 1.18
Julie,
Which one are you talking about:
“Another One Bites the Dust” OR “We are the Champions” OR “I Want It All”?
I find it odd that after spending all year telling us they understand newspoll because they own it, The Oz journos now seem so sure that it’s pointless.
353, We are the Champions, sorry hit send before I pasted the link
Stupidity and bias, thy name is Overington. How can she even “blog” with a straight face after being shown to be a Coalition preference pusher. And what about this gem from 7 November?
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/coverington/index.php/theaustralian/comments/rates_rise_is_good_news_for_howard
Caroline wrote something today I was thinking just last night:
“Rudd has been smooth as silk. The man is as good a politician as we’ve seen in this country. ”
I put Julia up alongside that as well. What a contrast she will be as Deputy Prime Minister with the baseball cap wearing, skateboarding, Auditor General ‘dissin’ Mark Vaile.
There were a handful of journalists in 1996 who thought Keating would scrape back in. There were claims they could win seats in Victoria and that they were coming back in Queensland.
I await with interest for Caroline’s next blog entitled “Why Black is White”, to be followed by “Why Up is Down”.
Wow Centrebet has the LNP @$4.95; Sportsbet and sportingbet have them at only $4.15… that’s a pretty large variance.
Obviously someone has put down another huge bet
Go for growth? watch this a be amused
If the ALP wins this election – will they thank Latham for the unlikely way it which he laid the groundwork? By running such a crap campaign in 2004 the Libs were handed control of both houses and a sense they were in power for at least two terms (the political equivalent of being immortal).
Without the senate majority there would have been no WorkChoices. Without WorkChoices the ALP would now be struggling.
Now here’s the funny thing. Rudds “abolishing” of WorkChoices still results in a radical shift in the ALP industrial policy. The ALP will come into power with all the reforms that would be politically impossible for them execute (tax, industrial, super) done. The key areas to be worked on, health, education, climate change, etc are very much in their domain and relatively easy to work on with the greens in the balance of power.
I’m not sure the ALP would see it this way but this is a much better election for the ALP to win than the last one.
Of course they still have to win.
take 2 go for growth ???
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fjKBf1N2Wls&eurl=http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=639471818
enjoy
I think the election song on the night should be the dancing celebration song of the ewoks at the end of Return of the Jedi.
“She said basing hiring and firing decisions on hits was “very bad for journalism” as it meant that “certain types of stories are not going to get covered in whole areas of the media”.”
Does that mean we can get rid of Oversimpleton, Albastardsen and the like? Just don’t click, say no to clicking on them.
The latest from the die hard Liberal supporting journalists and soothsayers is that the election is too close to call although Labor is seemingly in front. As others have said here, would we really be having this conversation if the polls were the other way around? No way. So there really lies the truth of the matter. I must say though Kieren Gilbert on Sky was on the money. He says it would take a miracle for the Libs to get back from here and that their best hope now is that people change their mind at the last minute. Me thinks that’s a forlorn hope.
Rudd’s campaigning in Macarthur - interesting…
When you think about it, what more do these people want before they can say the election looks like a landslide to Labor, 60 - 40?
If Howard and Costello are “married”, surely it’s one of the most abusive, dysfunctional and miserable of relationships - especially if you are Peter, who must feel like he’s experiencing “battered” wives syndrome
Regular as clockwork, once a year or more for the last 5-6 years we’ve seen husband John beat up on his partner…publicly humiliating him in the worst way - please see biography “John Winston Howard”…
and just as regularly we see Peter running back…battered and bruised, but prepared to give the relationship another go on basis of the most meagre scraps of evidence of her partner’s “love”….surely this time things will be better…
and last night with that penetrating political interviewer anna coren we had the latest instalment…
and sure enough today, howard grabs back the pathetic sliver of support he gave to peter last night:
FED: Howard denies Costello camaraderie is a show
Poll07 Leadership Daylead
CANBERRA, Nov 20 AAP - Commentators who think Prime Minister
John Howard and Treasurer Peter Costello are faking their
friendship are wrong, Mr Howard says.
The two men put their past leadership issues aside to present an
image of a unified Liberal Party team in a joint interview on the
Seven Network’s current affairs program Today Tonight last night.
It was the first time the pair had taken part in a joint
television interview.
In it, they agreed their relationship was like a marriage, with
Mr Howard praising his treasurer’s sense of humour and Mr Costello
admiring the prime minister’s work ethic.
Newspaper commentators today cast doubt on the sincerity of the
interview, saying the two men detested each other.
Mr Howard said the commentators were wrong.
“For sure, Peter and I have had our disagreements. He’s an
ambitious man, I respect ambition in anybody,” Mr Howard told ABC
Newsradio.
“No two people could work together as closely as we have over
11-and-a-half years - it’s the longest unbroken prime
ministerial-treasurer partnership in Australian political history.
“Just think for a moment - how on earth can two people occupying
the two most interactive and interdependent positions work together
for so long and so effectively if they didn’t have a personal
regard for each other.”
Mr Howard told Today Tonight that Mr Costello would be elected
unopposed by the party room to replace him when he stepped down, if
the coalition was re-elected.
AND HERE COMES THE PUNCH:
But today he said that was just his belief, not an order.
“It’s a party room decision but my prediction, my belief is that
he won’t be opposed and he will have my full support,” Mr Howard
said.
AAP mfh/rl/it/jlw
Yeah right - just like Howard expected Frasers support over Peacock in 83….
Peter, mate….the whole community is sick and tired of you being ritually castrated, year in, year out…
Just leave…Please….for the sake of the children (ie, the rest of your party)
There must be a womens shelter in Higgins or thereabouts you can flee to for refuge…or have you forgot to fund them adequately?
Its hard to see how Howard could do more damage…
this is just like the sorry, not sorry day over interest rates…..
except its “Pete’s the guy, but I can’g guarantee nuttin…’”
to quoth another blogger here: oh, the humanity
Can’t wait to hit the blogs on the GG after the election..
GB,
If the poll said 60/40, they would just say “the polls are clearly wrong - there’s never been a Federal Election in Australia since WWII where one party has got 60% of the TPP” and then would say the Coalition must have a chance, therefore…
Swing Lowe with respect it’s not interesting, Rudd doesn’t want a majority of less than 8 seats he wants a landslide and a majority of 20 seats that’s why he needs to campaign in those seats like Macarthur.
Good luck trying to bring down Pat Farmer, the locals like the chap up there and he’ll be returned with his hefty margin mostly in tact.
Glen,
That’s probably right (on both counts). Farmer looks safe in Macarthur, but it shows that if Labor was worried about marginal seats like Lindsay or Dobell, it would spend time campaigning there rather than in Macarthur…
My comment on Overington’s blog:
Howard makes Costello seem like such a eunach. I wonder if he has any self respect at all.
I couldn’t even be bothered reading Caroline’s latest article. I already know that it will be “colourful” trash dressed up as “informed” comment. Let me guess, she is predicting a Coalition win after finding an obscure piece of information when last rummaging through somebody’s rubbish bin?
Whatever it will be, it will be full of holes, contradictions, and weird logic (or lack of logic). And of course, plenty of baseless assumptions.
Overington has learnt the art of getting people all outraged by making hysterical claims. And every time people flock to her blog to condemn her for it, The Australian gets advertising revenue and she gets the attention that she craves.
So, I bypass her completely. She is better left alone with her crazed mutterings.
Swing Lowe Says:
November 20th, 2007 at 12:55 pm
Rudd’s campaigning in Macarthur - interesting…
Seat number 115 on the pendulum - nice one to snag.
GB - what we want is for the election to be over.
What we want is to know once and for all that this is NOT another 1969, nor a 1993 in reverse.
We want our sleep back… [dramatic music]
Oops, that should have been “by next Sunday morning”
Rudd out at Campbelltown again today. I’ve never believed Farmer would fall, but it doesn’t look like Labor agree with me.
Gary Bruce - spot on. If the LNP was on 54% the newspapers wouldn’t even bother to hide the landslide factor.
Yes winninng from opposition is hard, but if it was 50-50, or 51-49, or even 52-48 then maybe!
(and yes I know this poll is 52-48 but it’s a marginal poll - I’m telling you know if these marginal polls were so fantastic they would not even bother to do a national poll - at least during an election. - marginal polls do two things 1, sell newspapers because 54-48 sure as hell won’t do that; 2. give Galaxy et al a nice no-lose cover. If the ALP wins they will never mention the marginal polls again and point only to the national; if the LNP win tey can say “well we told you to look at the marginals”).
To be honest I’d never heard of this Overington person before last week. Somehow I doubt regular people have. Most of the time when I mention Laurie Oakes people are “Who?”. If they don’t know Laurie they’re not going to know Caroline.
Can we read much into Rudd campaigning in Macarthur? Not really. It could just mean he knows he’s not going to get seats elsewhere so he needs to find somewhere he can win. I don’t think so though.
Yay! First comment on Caroline’s blog (and she responded to me).
Btw, I was surprised by the amount of Pollbludgers commenting on that blog - ShowsOn and GG are 2 of the other 6 commenters on that blog…
And Downer is campaining in SINGAPORE?!?!?!
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Downer-leaving-campaign-for-Singapore/2007/11/20/1195321738865.html
If the polls were the other way around it would be a completely different story as the government already has a commanding majority of seats. Labor winning 52, 53 or 54% of the 2PP could still mean a Coalition government.
Nothing in the current news cycle makes me regret my $200.00 Centrebet punt on the government to hold onto power.
It will be sad to see the gloating, and the gutted Rudd concede defeat, but at least I’ve have a bit more money to spend on Sunday lunch at the pub…
Hey, want to buy a Harbour Bridge?
LETP you’re right about Overington, I mentioned her to my wife and she shook her head saying who?
Plus until I saw her article on mediawatch I used to think her name was Overton lol.
It’s not such a bad thing for the media to be talking down the prospect of a landslide to Labor. It helps to stop those people who want Labor to win but might otherwise be tempted to vote for the Coalition in order to stop Labor from having a “big” win. Provided that people still expect Labor to win, then it helps to lock in the Labor vote.
Andrew, I take it you’re saying that rather than the possibility of Howard winning, it’s probable that he will.
In other words you’re saying it’s almost certain he will win right?
Correct but hasn’t Rudd already campaigned in those seats?? And if he wants a significant margin to fight the 2010 election should he win on Saturday he’s going to need to capture seats on 8-10+% margins to build this so called 90 + seat result.
Rudd has to campaign there in seats like Macarthur, but personally i think it’s a waste of time, he would do better to spend more time in Melbourne or Perth IMHO.
Albert I dont see the Alp thanking latham for much more than than the fat liberal margins they have to clawback at this election. You’re right though about the control of the senate being linked to the demise of the libs at this election. if it turns out to be the case it can mean a few things 1 that democracy in some shape or form is working to correct the balance, and 2 the libs obviously can’t be trusted controlling both houses of parliment. I hope the greens get the balance in the senate. bob brown was fired up on LL lastnight he reckons its already in the bag as he speculating about 6-7 senators, tony jones was doing his best to play the lil shit but.
If Rudd is supposedly campaigning in ’safe’ Liberal seats (some call them second tier), when is he going to be seen hanging around Paterson?
Glen, I don’t think Rudd gives a damn about 2010.
Unless the polls are lying what on earth is Rudd up to? Getting the margins down for a DD later on? I guess it is a good opportunity to reduce margins in the safer Liberal seats, if you are certain you don’t need to go guarantee the marginals.
You would think he would work his way up the pendulum. Something funny is going on.
Andrew: Using the pendulum, the ALP needs 51.7% TPP. I agree 52% is close, but 53 or 54% is alot. I used my simulator at home to prove that at 54% TPP, the Libs have 0% chance of winning. Even at 53% TPP, Labor had like 89% of an outright win and 10% of a minority government, and the LNP had 1% chance.
Coalition has drawn back to $4.60
Why? The election will be won or lost in NSW and QLD.
Why Howard is in Tasmania I have no idea. Bass and Braddon are gone.
But I guess he had to finally go there once on day 38 of the campaign.
Grog, that is in from $5.10 mid morning …..
Sadly, mad cow, I think Paterson is going to be a bridge too far for Labor this election. I’m guessing the internals are showing that Labor has a better shot in Macarthur than in Paterson (even though this seems a bit weird).
Gary Bruce @ 367
Sorry to disappoint you, but a landslide in mainstream media terms is when the Coalition wins with 52.7% and 89 seats.
If Labor can only manage a paltry 53-54%, then that won’t be considered within cooee of a landslide.
Richard Jones, I do admit to voting Democrat a couple of times, but…
On the eve of the election prior to the GST, I talked to one of the democrat candidates (from melbourne, on the net), and at this stage it was clear that Meg was going not going to vote against the GST. He assured me “don’t worry, trust Meg”. At this stage I decided to vote Green.
It was pretty messy that business with Natasha (I wish she would join the Greens) but ultimately I think the Democrats lost it because of the GST.
Is there something wrong with the Newspoll Graphic with the Vic no.s ?
It is showing 59 - 41 to the ALP 2PP which I then plugged into Antony’s calculator and it was a gain of 9 seats to the ALP? There is surely something wrong with those numbers otherwise the election is going to be nearly won here.
The interesting thing is that it ties in with the Preferred PM no.s where Rudd has a 13 point lead in Vic. I keep reading that there will be minimal gains in Vic because it already has a majority of seats ALP but these numbers suggest the Coalition will be routed
I haven’t read about this elsewhere………am I missing something (ie being “dumb”)
SL, Paterson is eminently suitable for a number of reasons. Even Antony Green remarks that the 5.5 swing last time is probably soft. Its certainly a better bet than some of the electorates Rudd has shown up in lately.
Julie $5.10 are insane odds - Saturday morning maybe, if the newspoll had been 55 or 56…
Though I remember saying to someone at work around July that if the LNP odds got to $3.00 it’s all over.. LoL if they were at that now I’d be… ah well I’d be a lot more worried than I am now!
LTEP (117)- That was actually La Trioli, who is getting into plenty of trouble with her listeners regarding her treatment of interviewees/callers who don’t toe the party line. She really is a shocker.
As to the demise of the Democrats I would have to say part of the problem was that under Lees they stood for sitting on the fence rather than any principles of their own. When the nation needed them to be dogmatic they were more concerned with straddling the middle ground (so they could say they didn’t take sides) than opposing injustice. Bob Brown stood up and took the stage that Stott-Despoja and Kernot used to occupy. Now look where the greens are. Yes they occasionally cop flak for being synonymous with the labour left but the people who want someone to take a stand have rallied behind them and left the democrats high and dry.
The Democrats lost their way after they moved from being a centralist party.
The political vacuum right now is that there is no party representing a centralist view (where I believe the swing voters live).
We are also quick to blame Lees but I also remember another Democrat that destroyed the party by her desertion for love and fame…. what was her name again? That candiate for Dickson!!!!
I don’t care what side of politics your on, you have no credibility if you walk away from your principles for political convenience.
That was the last straw for me with the Democrats
Rudd ‘humbled’ by WorkChoices petition
He has been presented with 90,000 signatures on a petition against the WorkChoices laws.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/20/2095764.htm?site=elections/federal/2007
Looks like the Libs are still on track for 150 seats.
An excelent summary of Howard’s legacy by Phillip Adam:
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/phillipadams/index.php/theaustralian/comments/pms_porkies_are_a_true_indicator
I like the very last paragraph:
“…Falsehoods, fibs, fictions and frauds have been the fabric of the Howard years. A plethora of porkies had the pollies blaming flawed advice from the armed services or the bureaucrats or relying on the implausibility of plausible deniability.
“Whether it was the AWB or WMDs or kids overboard, Howard has never hesitated to look Australia in the eye and lie.
“Even worse for the Liberals, Howard has ended his career and his party’s hopes by lying to himself. “
mad cow,
Everything I’ve heard about Labor’s campaign in Paterson (hardly any ads, Rudd not going up there even though he’s been to Dobell and Robertson) suggests that Labor doesn’t think it’s got a realistic shot up there. That said, if the swing’s on, it’ll probably go anyway…
This only gets better -
Vaile shies away from Joyce IR row
Nationals leader Mark Vaile will not say whether he will be trying to pull his Queensland Senator Barnaby Joyce into line for contradicting government ministers on industrial relations.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/20/2095758.htm
FF @ 408
Yes, we always get a balance view from Phillip Adams
Chris - yeah I doubt the ALP will putting Latham up in the hall of fame. Its just interesting to muse on how the defeat in 2004, in an unpredictable manner has lead to the position the ALP is in now. That and a shed-load of disciplined hard work from the Ruddster.
I don’t know if any stats are compiled but I would bet money on Rudd as having travelled more km’s, done more interview etc than any other PM candidate.
No cover-up, no WorkChoices II: Howard
Prime Minister John Howard insists the Coalition does not have any plans for a second wave of industrial relations laws.
Channel Seven says Mr Howard’s department drafted a second wave of industrial relations laws in 2005, but later scrapped the idea
Why should we believe what comes from this Government about WorkChoices when they didn’t tell Australians the truth before the last election,” Labor deputy leader Julia Gillard said.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/20/2095289.htm
Its all over for Sri Lanka (and the Tories)
GP: Is that 150 total of all around Australia including HoR, senate seats, state lower house seats and state upper house seat and a few council/mayoral positions?
Johnnie has done a lot for you party.
Howard and Sri Lanka now cactus..
LTEP - it’s almost a certainty Howard will win.
Which is why the crowing and premature talk of dancing in the street as Janette packs up the silverware only adds to the little scrapbook the Young Liberals are keeping, along with the compilation tape of Kerry O’Brien’s and Tony Jones’ barely contained joy of late, Megalogenis’, Hartcher’s and Green’s predictions, Alan Ramsey’s last dozen or so Saturday SMH pieces, and the thousands of comments on blogs like this one.
This tape, and the PowerPoint compilation of “Annihilation” headlines will be the source of much mirth at the Young Liberals Christmas party.
SL as a correction to what I’ve said before, the last couple of days have seen a swarm of ALP ads, including one directly promoting Jim Arneman.
Ok, now that they are putting some money into it, it makes Rudd’s absence even stranger.
Andrew @ 417,
That comment will be a definite keeper for Sunday morning - not even ESJ and Glen are saying that they are “almost certain” that Howard will win…
Very well Andrew. I don’t agree with you that’s its a certainty but it’s most definately a possibility, however slim. Obviously you think the polls must be wrong right?
If I Only Had … a Brain
I could while away the hours
Conferrin’ with the flowers
Consultin’ with the rain
And my head, I’d be scratchin’
While my thoughts were busy hatchin’
If I only had a brain.
I’d unravel ev’ry riddle
For any individ’le
In trouble or in pain
With the thoughts you’d be thinkin’
You could be another Lincoln,
If you only had a brain.
Oh, I could tell you why
The ocean’s near the shore,
I could think of things I never thunk before
And then I’d sit and think some more.
I would not be just a nuffin’
My head all full of stuffin’
My heart all full of pain.
I would dance and be merry
Life would be a ding-a-derry
If I only had a brain–Whoa!
Who or what are the Young Liberals? Are these the 18 year olds that act like 50 year-olds, wear suits to their 5th birthday parties, do as their parents do and say? Should be fun in the sandpits on Monday….
Andrew,
I thought I was a pessimist! Even I have been allowing myself to think that Labor might scrape in by a handful of seats.
Overington’s moderator being very mean today. Any reference to her not breaking the AWB story today means hit delete button. They might get slacker as the day goes on. I havent even referred to F*ck for photo or front page for preferences!
mad cow,
If that’s the case, there’s probably a decent chance that Rudd will visit during this week - there’s still a few days to go and there are 3 vulnerable marginals in the Central Coast/Hunter region…
LTEP (358) Journalists are the last people to listen to about election outcomes. They are followers not leaders. Experts at getting a headline, that’s all.
*hooves crossed*
Andrew say - “If the polls were the other way around it would be a completely different story as the government already has a commanding majority of seats. Labor winning 52, 53 or 54% of the 2PP could still mean a Coalition government.” Your logic, Andrew, is breath taking. This indicates to me you know nothing about how our system works. Amazing stuff and you’ve put $200.00 bucks on the Libs with this lack of knowledge? Wow.
PJK: They’re the Liberal party members who are younger than Ruddock.
Do we have any correspondents in Page or Cowper?
Coz I was wondering what’s the vibe on the ground up there? Page seems now to be a strong chance for a Labor win, but do Labor have ads on the airwaves up there?
I think we’ve gone well over how it is possible for someone to win on 46% of the 2PP on a number of occasions so I doubt its worth going over all over again.
Still, to say that’s it’s almost a certainty that someone polling 46% of the 2PP will win government is a bit of a stretch.
I used to live in Cowper and simply cannot imagine it being close at all. If it is, then the swing is bigger than the rides at Dreamworld!
Andrew - “This tape, and the PowerPoint compilation of “Annihilation” headlines will be the source of much mirth at the Young Liberals Christmas party.” And you’ll obviously be there Andrew.
Arbie Jay 345.
Ben a long, long time and Mac the knife?
Red Wombat-Open up the phone book, shut your eyes and just point.
Be nice to Andrew. He’s a Young Liberal living in Grayndler. He must be very lonely.
Andrew, I have the feeling Christmas may be cancelled this year.
On Overington et al, were I a journo I would most likely take their line as well. It is absolutely zero risk to credibility. If the ALP wins they can say, oh well the polls were rigth this time, but you can’t deny the word from both camps that it was going to be close.
If the LNP wins they are masters at analaysing politics.
Predict the ALP wins?
If they do, everyone says well duh look at what the polls said.
If the ALP loses, everyone remembers you as the one got it wrong.
431 Lose the election please - so you also believe Labor can win with 46%?
diogenes. trying getting a reference to a “Nantucket sleigh ride for front page”
Kina (410) Yes. it does make good reading - except the part where Joyce says he can’t see much difference between the government’s IR laws and the ALP’s.
Why are so many people believing this BS? By my reckoning there’s a massive difference. One is based on balance, fairness and proper representation and the other just hands all power over to the employer. Talk about chalk and cheese.
Geoff
“Workchoices II:
The Government recognises that there may be people who are attracted to some aspects of independent contracting.”
Changes to the contracting would be argued by howard and Costello as not being changes to Work Choices.
But classifying people as contractors has many attractions for Howard and business.
No hourly rate, penalties overtime sick pay leave etc as contract would be on completed work.
No superannuation or workers compensation payable by “employer”
Worst part of it is the worker can be treated as a contractor for employment purposes but not reconginsed as a contractor by the tax office and thus able to claim juicy deductions.
On workers compo Howard passed legislation that deemed federal OH&S laws overrode state laws.
Immediate impact was that businesses saw a lessening of liability for work accidents as Howard does not favor responsibility for a safe workplace being on the employers .
Future impact, further detoriation of OH&S laws and eventual abolishment of any obligation by the employer so that employees will have to take out their own coverage.
Someone’s in a bad mood today:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22790661-12377,00.html
So Andrew you also believe Labor can win with 46%, 47 or 48% TPP?
From the way some people are talking about how little 2PP the LNP need to win you’d think parties carry over votes from the last election.
“The Democrats lost their way after they moved from being a centralist party.”
Bollux. They are the only Centralist party left in Australian politics, since Labor pushed to the right.
http://www.politicalcompass.org/aus2007
Grog @ 438,
Fair analysis as far as it goes. But I would not like to be the executive that goes to Rupert asking for a bigger budget and more millions to expend on polls that we can’t interpret properly, bring the whole organisation in to disrepute and which they wifully ignore if the results don’t co incide with preconceived political prejudices.
If I was Rupert I would tell them to just make it up, like they have been doing and forget about doing the polls.
445 Grog - that’s Andrew’s logic, that’s for sure. Amazing isn’t it?
Let’s put the “46% Coalition win situation” in context.
Labor got 46.5% of the TPP in 1996
Coalition got 46.8% of the TPP in 1983.
What’s common in both of these elections? They both lost in a landslide. And this was with TPPs > 46%.
Andrew
You poor crazed lad - possibly you’re one of those loafer, chino wearing young libs who hangs out with mum and dad on weekends and so is sheltered from the real world - Labor getting 54% of the TPP and losing! The biggest win they’ve had was with 53%!. Such self deception is truly tragic. The sad thing for us is that you’re not going to be around this blog on sat night.
Frankly I think there are a number of us on this site who are closet Overandout fans, maybe not of her writing, but her other less tangible charms. As the GG sells what 99,000 a day? Im not surprised no ones heard of her
Geez.. I think that Labor should act immediately on election and save the waste of trees and subsequent CO2 emissions by buying The Oz, closing it down, and using its editors as garden gnomes around Parliament House.
Exactly! (however, this is 3rd on the wishlist for Howard if re-elected, after “Workchoices 2 - Judgment Day” and the “BOOOOOO SCARY ARGH! (Union Bosses) Act 2008)
No I don’t think so. There’s no reason to believe Labor could win with 46%.
The difference is the Coalition won a large majority in ‘04. The members in the traditionally marginal seats are popular. The fact that we basically have to write off some traditionally marginal seats (Herbert, Paterson etc.) and instead look at seats Labor has never won (Bennelong, North Sydney) to suggest a Labor win demonstrates the size of the task that faces them. Also, don’t forget that the total effect of less populous states on the national 2PP is small. Yet, WA could deliver the Coalition 2 and maybe 3 seats (if you look at what’s being said about Brand). This would probably not have a huge impact on the national 2PP.
It’s a lot more possible the Coalition could win on 46% of the 2PP than Labor. I don’t believe the final result will be 54/46 in any case. It’ll be roughly a point closer than that.
Hey stop picking on Andrew. He’s done his dough. At least offer him some bread and soup.
DB @ 446
Yes I am familar with Paul Ray’s work in this area (more accepted overseas tha hear)
Not sure what a bollux is but I would like to see the methodology in more detail before I would agree. If you want to know why I think it is flawed look at where the Greens are positioned.
Nicko Says:
November 20th, 2007 at 1:17 pm
Is there something wrong with the Newspoll Graphic with the Vic no.s ?
Nope - 59/41 would give the ALP a bag of seats in victoria (even the Bracket Creep). Unfortunately some of the other polling points to the ALP just falling short of any gains.
If I had to guess, I’d say the reality lies in the middle with good swings and the ALP getting over the line in 2 or 3 seats.
Being my home state, I’d love to see Vic deliver half a dozen seats and be pork central for the next election - but I don’t think thats going to happen.
Who the hell has written off Herbert? All the bookies have Labor favourite there. The same thing applies with the Labor marginals in WA.
I’ll make this clear, LTEP - the Coalition has absolutely no chance of winning if it gets 46% TPP. It needs minimum 48.5% (in my opinion). And there’s no indication it’s going to get there…
Swing Lowe
Downer can’t help himself can he? Keeps coming out with this petulant act forgetting how poorly it played with the electorate the first time around. This is exactly the reason the Libs are toast. They’ve reached the stage where they are ignoring any sort of coherent strategy and just mouthing off whatever they feel like. With this sort of ill discipline I can feel another Abbott moment around the corner!
Wrong again my feathered friend - I’m anticipating huge symbolic swings in ridiculously safe Liberal seats, but not enough to take too many of them. I also anticipate decent swings in all currently held Labor seats apart from WA, leaving them with only a few marginals of the current lot.
They’ll swipe 10 - 14 from the Coalition and lose 2.
Provided they do a decent job over the next three years, they’ll cane it in 2010/2011.
331. I agree. I also think that Labour could point to other Labour or centre left governments around the world that have been a huge success. For example, NZ which has a strong performing economy with very low unemployment. Having watched Insight on SBS last week and reading the transcript for tonights program it sounds like there are a lot of swinging voters that do not trust labour with the economy. Governments such as those in NZ clearly demonstrate that you can be serious on environmental issues such as global warming, have stronger employee protections and still be very successful economically.
422-The Young Libs are actually a very scary bunch of youngsters these days. Most moderates (say of a petro georgiou kind) have been chased out by the your garden variety right wing lunatic(the sort who think the ALP is full of commies,all people on the dole are welfare cheats or bludgers,George Bush Jnr is cool, John Howard is cooler), of the sort now prevalent in the NSW branch.
Andrew (417) If you’ve never seen the Russell Crowe movie “A Beautiful Mind” I urge you to do so. It will give you a great insight into the kind of delusions you are currently experiencing.
454 Lose the election please - hango on we’re talking possibilities here not probabilities. So in ANY Federal election are you saying the Libs could win with 46% TPP and Labor couldn’t or just in this election? I don’t accept, by the way that in the event of a 54$ - 46 TPP that being a popular sitting member would necessarily save you.
Well, I’m declaring it. On sunday morning Australia will have a new PM. Mr Rudd.
Any slight chance Howard had left of winning is now finished. It should be all over the news tonight. The government is refusing to release a report which clearly shows their true intention to take work2choices further. They are claiming that it is not in the public interests that the report be released.
That takes playing on the stupidity of the people to record heights and the betting markets have reacted.
I stand by my prediction of ALP 91 / LIB 57 seats.
John Feyne on 774 talking to locals in Colac in Corangamite… Saying the Liberal McArthur is back…
If your’e a popular local member then the extra votes you garner by being popular are ALREADY COUNTED IN THE 46!!!
LTEP, don’t forget that at the last election Paterson was only 1 point something percent despite going backwards and forwards over several elections. The 5.5% swing last time was at a time when Howard promised us low interest rates, and there were pictures of Bob and John’s faces everywhere *and* Labor made no contest.
Andrew you did see the computer simulation results here?
Libs have one chance in 100,000
Swing Lowe (443) thanks for that link. Hilarious. Can’t you just see that pouting lower lip trembling with indignation? Can’t you just taste the bile rising in his throat as he contemplates the wildnerness of Opposition?
Oh, poor Dolly, must have laddered his tights.
“He’s asked a question, a practical question, and he scoots around it and talks about something slightly different - he doesn’t answer questions, he just repeats slogans and cliches and that is what Mr Rudd is about.”
-No, Dolly, that’s what being a politician is all about. Look what happens to people who actually answer questions with their honest opinions, like Peter Debnam.
443 # swing lowe
bloody hell how is that even news??
Whoa whoa whoa! Who said I was a Young Liberal, let alone a Liberal? I’d sooner blow my brains out than put Libs anything but last.
My first pref will go to Socialist Alliance or SEP, then Greens, Labor and so on.
Your mistaking my prediction for my prayer.
Would have preferred a Latham victory (makes for a better story, the Gough tutelage, raised by women, attended uni with Abbott, etc) but if Rudd wins I’ll be dancing in the street along with 90% of you lot here.
I just don’t see it happening is all.
Andrew
This idea that the swings will be contained in safe seats gets trotted out every year. It worked for Howard in 98 cos both parties were neck and neck on the national vote. It doesn’t happen in reality when labor get anything over 51% of the 2pp.
In 2010 your man costello, following on from his role over the last 11 years, will have moved to sydney’s north shore to be the rodents butler.
I hated the Fraser years, but when he came out in 2001 over Tampa and reffos sayign something along the lines of ” a few thousand refugees could not possibly be a threat to Australia’s national security” I was gobsmacked!
You have to worry when old die-hard Liberals feel uncomfortable and the Howard/Costello team is too right-wing and fascist for their taste!
LTEP: Please check out my post in the previous thread. http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=729&cp=3#comment-88637
Seriously, stop sprouting the idea the coalition on 46%TPP could even win. At 54% there isn’t an even remote chance of a hung parliament.
Also, go check out ozpolitics.org/blog for the recent article which happens to use the exact same method as I used in my simulator. I used an input standard deviation of 3, but they use 2.3 and all that would do is make it even less likely for the Coalition to win.
BTW, thanks for your pessimism yesterday, as it was motivation to actually write the program.
I plugged 52% TPP in to it last night and got 89% chance of a labor win, 2% LNP win, and 9% of a Labor minority government.
I think Dolly is practicing his comedy act. Well …. I laughed.