The Sydney Morning Herald reports that Galaxy has conducted a poll for SBS’s Insight program showing Labor leading 52-48 across a sample of marginal electorates: Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Blair, Moreton, Deakin, Stirling and Wakefield. The average margin in these seats is 3.5 per cent, so this suggests a combined swing of 5.5 per cent.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Galaxy: 52-48 in “marginals”
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911 Comments
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Mmm – . I would suggest a less brutal measure….. drive them humanely off the cliff….
The ALP have clearly got the “climbing Mount Everst” line out to the team. Michael Costello was laying it on thick this morning.
Toby 532
You are right. The MOE could be the other way and its a lot worse for the Liberals than we think. Then they won’t have a seat left east of the dividing range.
Sean
Yes, but I can take comfort in knowing that, with news starved media approaching teh holiday season, we are going to get election night scenes replayed to us many times over coming months.
mad cow
I know how you feel but as I have posted before, I’d rather see those people live to cop all the blame. This election is all over bar the bitter recriminations and I’d hate to see Howard and cronies miss that bit.
With the ALP primary vote greater than the coalition vote it is going to be very, very difficult (less than a few percent i suspect) for the coalition to win the 2PP vote, as the next highest primary voting group will be the greens, whose preferences will flow at >70% to labor. So a +5 primary vote for labor over the coalition (as seen in today’s newspoll) is like a Brett Lee death-rattle. Death is in the air.
The phone msgs are going out again. This time it’s Howard, Costello and some other Libs.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Libs-to-start-calling-voters-by-phone/2007/11/20/1195321753169.html
into a lake of boiling lava.
Lefty E, I’m hoping the headline on Sunday morning will be “Howard rejected!”
How ridiculous, of course anything is possible. The only time something is absolutely not possible is when the outcome has already been determined.
As far as elections are concerned, anything with less than a 5% chance is not even worth considering. If that possible outcome is successful, then it should be treated for what it is – a big surprise!
No big surprises in store for the Dessicated Coconut on saturday night. He has run out of those.
No 490
I’ll be getting pissed at the Wentworth Hotel, win or lose.
Lord D I don’t agree that its necessarily true the smallest swings are occurring in safe Labor seats. I’ve seen absolutely no polling to suggest it’s true. In fact the Galaxy Lilley poll had humungous swings to the ALP. I think that whole theory is just a line that’s thrown out there without much to back it up.
I guess I’m just being cautious… for some reason, I can still see it going down to WA, and Howard picking up a seat… and then a victory speech from him. Am I alone here?!
Socrates, yeah true.
Its like with Bill Gates. Death is too good for him.
What they should do to Bill is lock him in a room and tell him to spend eternity debugging Windoze.
As for Howard etc.. I’m struggling to think of suitable fates.
Although I think Pell could do with a rogering.. and Pauline should be sent to Africa.. and Downer should be made to work a real job.. and..
Diogenes
Quite right, (I really must finish that thesis too). I suppose I’m something of a retributivist myself, at least as far as JH is concerned. And as a consequentialist, that seems perfectly OK to me
Anyway, I better keep grog happy, back to work for me.
‘the change’ is about to go through melbourne. preparing for 15 degree temperature drop. not quite swing that will be in these parts on sat, but close enough.
Should have been…..
Generic Person Says:
November 20th, 2007 at 2:32 pm
No 490
I’ll be bashed at the Wentworth Hotel, win or lose.
564 – Melburnians…always trying to be…cooler.
athankyouverymuch.
lol socrates. Yep, back to it!
Looks like time for Howard to impose martial law and continue his reign. LOL
No 565
How original red wombat. Pity you’re not invited.
mad cow
I’d put Howard in one of those rickety refugee boats, including time spent clinging to a plank of wood, slam him down on the deck of the tampa, give him a one way ticket to nauru, 5 years accommodation working in a sweat shop on an AWA, before sending him into the pit of lava. I think thats pretty fair and reasonable.
I am not sure if it was Shows On or Swing Lowe but I was slightly worried when they said libs had as much chance as SRI LANKA to win early today. Now I am somewhat confident beyond stats and in to the world of touch wood.
Pancho, we’re not trying to be cooler, we just are. not that there’s much competition.
They got pokies at the Wentworh pub…let me guess GP your favourite game is “Queen of Denial”
573
Nope. Russian roulette.
Sykes, I must admit I rarely take any how-to-vote cards, my decision on who I’m going to vote for and who to give my preferences to is something I’ve normally decided before I get to the polling booth (with the exception of the Senate, then I really only know my top 15 and bottom 10). I’ll probably be going to the West Lakes polling booth which has traditionally been the big Liberal booth north of Glenelg.
nath, maybe so, but at least we have more leathery skin, blonde hair and money in Sydney.
LTEP, Please read these and inwardly digest.
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/09/30/my-what-a-big-swing-you-have/
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/10/05/the-proportional-application/
They show that the largest swings are occurring in Coalition ‘(un)safe’ seats, followed by marginal seats, followed by ’safe’ Labor seats. The data is direct from the Newspoll quarterly aggregates. There is no reason to disbelieve these figures, and certainly no rational reason to believe that the actual situation is the reverse, and markedly so.
cheers,
Alan H
GP – “Nope. Russian roulette.” I reckon 5 out of 6 chambers are loaded for Saturday night. Would not want to be in your shoes.
Will@555
Oh Ho – the dreaded AT-5000.
At the NSW State election I was approached by a very angry woman. I could see her rage from about 30m. Up close she screamed about some auto-dialler, actually she started ‘Are you from the Liberal Party!!!!’ I pointed her in the direction of the dopey Libs.
I think it’s so funny – they don’t learn.
I think West Lakes used to be in Port Adelaide not so long Al, from memory ?
Sean, that’s the idea
Interesting to note that after Centrebet accepted the $160k wager on labor, coalition odds were extended to 4.60. The 4.60 provided sufficient demand to shorten the odds to as much as 3.90 with that agency.
I can absolutely assure all the doubters and Coconut supporters that the signs for Team Rodent are catastrophic that now Centrbet are again offering LIB 4.60.
Pancho @578
It’s actually six out of six.
Long time lurker, first time poster.
Does this story reak of desperation from the Libs or an unwelcome distraction for the ALP?
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22790990-29277,00.html
We know the next Newspoll will be all over the GG on Saturday morning, and leaked for the Friday night TV news – but can anyone remember when ACNeilsen produce their final poll. I assume both pollsters are in the field on Wed/Thurs night. So I again assume it will be in the Fairfax papers on Sat as well, including the on-line Brisbane Times up here.( Morgan does a late one – but of no relevance)
THE Liberal Party has claimed 13 Labor candidates are ineligible to stand in Saturday’s election. The shock development threatens to create a major distraction for Kevin Rudd’s run to the poll.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22790836-661,00.html
There remains a possibility that the 04 election swing from the polls to what the actual election result could happen (I know very unlikely given the run of polls and relative MOE’s, but possible). However, saying “point at the certain labor gains” is a false statement, as no one can possibly point to 16 certain gains and prove it on the basis of the MOE’s of the various marginal polls. Nearly all of them have MOE’s that could drag them to either side of the 50% mark for either party, and as such can’t be locks. However, if, over the entire electorate, labor gets 53%, almost all of these marginals will fall. So while you can’t “prove” in a definitive way today which seats will fall, you can be assured on a statistical basis that they will because to get to 53% they will have to. This is because of a number of factors which would of course include the fact that safe labor seats are unlikely to get anywhere near the across the board swing to labor because they already have large majorities (the more marginal, the higher the swing for either side). It also stands to reason that if the swing in WA is not there, but the 2pp is still 54% nationally, there are going to be much bigger 2pp figures elsewhere.
The Libs are getting really desperate, and this seems to be their last minute Tampa:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22790990-12377,00.html
433
Swing Lowe
Page looks strong for Labor, Cowper will be interesting on the night, the Labor ads blitz only started this week while the National/Libs ads have been running the whole campaign and stepped up this week.
There is a personal ad for the Labor Page candidate but not the Cowper candidate, maybe this is due to Labor changing their candidate in Cowper late in the piece.
Labor could have possibly made a strategic error allowing the National/Lib ads to run 4 or 5 weeks without any Labor ads to counteract the propaganda, and this could cost them one or both these seats.
SportingBet is now at 1.58 for Howard in Bennelong (same as centrebet).
Sportingbet has always had Howard at shorter odds than the other bookies, so it’s interesting that today they have moved out.
I don’t believe the Newspoll quarterly aggregates are particularly meritous. In fact the results in states swing around wildly from 1 aggregate to another with no explanation. Aggregates contradict each other from one polling company to another etc. Plus there hasn’t been a useful aggregate demonstrating swing broken up on seat types for a while now.
As such I don’t trust any analysis of them that’s offered and go for evidence provided by the individual seat polling. Small swings in marginals, large swings in Labor held marginals and safe seats and largish swings in traditionally safe Liberal seats, but tight contests.
now this is desperate. 13 labor candidates ineligble – Liberals.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22790990-12377,00.html
I think ACN are releasing tomorrow night and for the last time friday night. I am expecting 55/45.
Gosh this 13 seat thing looks really desperate from the Liberals, smart, but stupid at the same time.
Theyre basically saying they are gonna win the election by defauly, how insulting to the public
GP’s big night out at the Wentworth.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=iVttBLYp5IQ
Is that Caroline Overington?
Thats nothing – according to my sources, 19 Libs and 3 Nats suffer the same problem of inelegibility.
The Greens may win the election by default.
587 Deo
Reeks of sheer desperation and will not go down well with the punters.
I heard a Labor ad on the radio just before for Mike Symon in Deakin.
I see where Vaile is now saying Joyce is wrong and that for Labor to change WC it will cost 12 billion dollars. Me thinks they’ve dragged that figure out of a hat.
Meanwhile, Downer launches a personal attack on Rudd:
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22790759-5001021,00.html
Honestly, why would a respectable media outlet even print that sort of unsourced and transparently concoted garbage from LIB HQ?
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