The Sydney Morning Herald reports that Galaxy has conducted a poll for SBS’s Insight program showing Labor leading 52-48 across a sample of marginal electorates: Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Blair, Moreton, Deakin, Stirling and Wakefield. The average margin in these seats is 3.5 per cent, so this suggests a combined swing of 5.5 per cent.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Galaxy: 52-48 in “marginals”
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911 Comments
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Kina Says:
November 20th, 2007 at 3:09 pm
I typed in:
“stinking poxy bastard liar turd “john howard””
and got only 4 hits, tells you how much the internet knows.
The Internet. Is that thing still around?
No chance Misty. Nothing has stuck to Rudd all year. It is a presidential campaign and he will be answering for it. This is not why people do or don’t vote for a party, and this close to an election can only reinforce what has been going on. It will reinforce the fact that the Liberal party is being tricky against a challenger with a record high approval rating.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22790994-5012863,00.html
13 labor candidates inelgible according to Liberal Party (in the Newhouse vein).
The majority just happen to be in marginals…
Don’t be fooled Misty. If it looks like a smear, if it smells like a smear, it probably is a smear.
The liberals are basing their allegations simply on the jobs that these people previously held. Most public sector positions have provisions for people that wish to be candidates where you “resign” but don’t really “resign” in case you don’t win your seat. There is probably a technical name for this, but I can’t recall what it is.
Jim,
Newhouse is the one person who’s eligibility is safe – the relevant legislation automatically removed him from office well before his nomination was filed.
The rest of the list is kind of stupid – I could see 1 candidate stuffing up their nominations – not 13. It’s a beat up that should be sorted out soon.
William,
When are you going to make the PB’s “official” seat-by-seat predictions for this election?
I am trying to think how Howard thinks this will help him.
The allegations can only be tested after the election and, if any are correct it goes to another election for the seat – but this is all after the election.
I guess he is hoping to cause some doubt in some threatened seats – but it is just so easy for Labor to use this and really sink Howard much deeper than he is. Abusing democracy to try and make Tampa etc.
And it is of course is an abuse of democracy – allegations should be made and tested after the election. Otherwise everyone can a few days from an election claim people are ineligible and, after the election when it is proven wrong no penatly to them for making false allegations.
Let’s take a page from the ALP playbook:
“Have an inquiry!!” they all screamed in unison.
As for whether this plays badly for LNP, well, maybe according to you lot. For the electorate it will probably raise legitimate questions.
Only if the Coalition can provide actual strong evidence to support their claims.
This latest episode establishes beyond doubt the that the Liberal party, as currently constituted, are simply unfit for office.
Im now extremely confident of a landslide win to the ALP this Saturday.
Enjoy your annhiliation, losers! Consider it an opportunity to have a good look at yourselves – and what an borderline authoritarian, lowest common demoninator populist disgrace, threat to liberal democracy, and general middle class welfare-peddling, big-state , illiberal ideological Frankenstein you’ve become.
The reason you wont be in government anywhere in the country is essentially that you truly suck at it.
About why the coalition has giving up talking about policies so close to an election.
Just had a horrible vision.
Labor wins with a majority of less than 13 seats. JH declines to concede based on the ‘13 ineligible candidates’.
Am I just being paranoid?
Many Australians are going to wake up and say – You mean a Government employee can’t run for office unless they resign? This will be a revelation to many Australians, and many Australians will think it unfair.
One suspects they have gone and looked for who had a public sector job and just painted them all as ineligible. I suspect they all did the right thing but that would never stop Andrew Robb (slime ball that he is) from tarring them. One wonders if they have recourse under the laws of libel to sue Robb? (I suspect not.)
ShowsOn with respect how much policy has Rudd debated in the last week next to zero he comes to press conferences smiles jokes around attacks Howie and then that’s it not scrutiny of his policies by the media who let Rudd slip by.
Well last time i checked Ryan and Kalgoorlie weren’t marginal seats ShowsOn.
Hmmmm if it is true then not even br’er rabbit could get out of this, Rudd will struggle.
Let me guess Rudd is calling Kerry Obrien right now to bump Howie off so he can explain apologise and all is well, he’ll probably call Tony Jones to get on Lateline.
What happened to Howard’s roads policy in Tasmania?
13 ALP candidates? And no Coalition ones? How odd.
I wonder if MPs have to resign before re-contesting? Hmmm…..
“…if it is true then it shows Labor is unfit to govern, if they can’t manage to follow procedures and follow the rules, why risk inexperience?”
Give it a rest, Glen. You know as well as anyone else here that these allegations are VERY unlikely to be true. I mean, seriously, maybe one or two candidates not following the rules is believable, but THIRTEEN?
This is a big dirty trick. A last desperate attempt to win. And it will all be shown to be yet more lies from the Liberal Party. Seriously, how can you feel any sense of pride for this party?
There are, of course other rules of eligibility. I think we can assume none of them have been charged of treason or are bankrupt or insolvent. That leaves:
(i. ) Is under any acknowledgement of allegiance, obedience, or adherence to a foreign power, or is a subject or a citizen or entitled to the rights or privileges of a subject or citizen of a foreign power: or
(iv. ) Holds any office of profit under the Crown, or any pension payable during the pleasure of the Crown out of any of the revenues of the Commonwealth: or
(v. ) Has any direct or indirect pecuniary interest in any agreement with the Public Service of the Commonwealth otherwise than as a member and in common with the other members of an incorporated company consisting of more than twenty-five persons:
There’d be a bit of flexibility to challenge, particularly on (v) but it won’t necessarily be on solid grounds. (v) is construed very widely, and exceptions are quite easily made.
Glen
People don’t give a sh.t if you fill out a form in time. , in fact its something that everyone can relate to – just like going to a strippers club etc. It has no relation to governing – in fact its just more bureaucratic red tape that pi..ses everyone off.
What it will play to is the tory sense of entitlement, the born to rule arrogance that gets everyone off side. People will see it as an attempt to unfairly sabotage the election..
If you think you’ll get anything out of this 12 months of being badly behind in the polls is starting to play with your head. This is gonna be another one of those long line of ‘gottya’ style issues that the libs have been bringing up that leads them even further up sh.t creek without a paddle. There’s votes in this for Labor..
This also give Labor another legitimate path to bring out ‘the mother of all fear campaigns’ line. Honestly, who is this Loughnane moron? A petulant 12 year old?
This was always a risk from having a cabinet full of Lawyers who are about to become unemployed and looking for work. The last Lawyer stacked Board of this nature was Bond Corp and they were a high risk proposition too. Threats of this nature will just make the floodgates against the Tories on Saturday night a certainty.
Isn’t everyone in the ALP a union boss? Or are union bosses now inelgible.
NB,
If he did that and forced the by-elections in those seats, the Libs would cop the biggest pounding (aka Lindsay in 1996) in those resulting by-elections. And Howard’s legacy would be further tarnished as the guy who wouldn’t resign because of a technicality…
Where did I say these seats are marginals? You read that in a post I didn’t write.
I agree that Ryan isn’t a marginal anymore, it is provisionally a Labor seat, it just needs to be confirmed on Saturday.
This list is nothing other than ’smear and fear’ from the Libs, which they obviously learned from their US Republican cousins.
And anyone who refers to John Howard as ‘Howie’ needs help. Serious help. Just like anyone who thinks the Libs will will on Saturday.
If i was the ALP, Id be looking closely at the electoral act – my guess is that Lib HQ are in breach of it by knowingly and with malicious intent, spreading false accusations of improper candidate registration.
Get a few of those scumbags investigated by federal police sometime tomorrow. Good look for Team Rodent.
aj:
Shayne Neumann is on the West Moreton District Health Council and would receive fees and allowances as determined by the Governor-In-Council.
In NSW, such fees and allowances are specifically excluded from being ‘profit under the Crown’, but I’m not sure if the same situation applies in QLD.
More lies.
And when they’re found to be lies… again… Glen… why do you support a party that continually lies, and continually gets caught for lying?
Doesn’t that bother you in the slightest?
Sean why vote for someone who could be ineligible so you’d have to vote again?
Sean if you don’t think this will be a maybe factor in a possible Howard 5th victory, check the 2002 State Victorian election, the Liberals Shadow Treasurer was not enrolled in his own seat. This showed the tories to be incompetent and we got a thrashing. I’d be worried unless Rudd can come out with proof that all the 13 are eligible to stand at the election.
Either way this will be a major political story tonight.
Also, what a surprise that the Libs waited until the last week to release this information. Why didn’t they release it earlier so it could all be cleared up?
If the Libs had been smarter about this, they would have leaked the information about Mitchell in McEwen and Neumann in Blair (2 truly marginal seats), coz 2 stuff ups is much more marginal than 13.
Wait until the candidates appear on radio/TV announcing that they do not hold offices for profit under the Crown. Actually, Labor should get a press conference where all of them are there and Rudd stands up the front and categorically states that none were ineligible candidates. He should then point out how desperate the Libs have become before calling for Robb to resign…
This is the most encouraging bit of news I’ve heard yet about what the Coalition’s internal polling is telling them. They must be absolutely desperate to try a strategy as risky as this – they risk really ANNOYING people with these baseless assertions, and are only confirming that they are the Sneaky Party that would do anything to stay in office. Not a good look.
Ninemsn Pulse survey now has Labor winning 22 seats, up from 19 last week. 11 are too close to call:
http://pulse.ninemsn.com.au/forecast/
The ABC says: Liberal party has legal opinion that could…’possibly ineligible’.. sounds low keyed.
———————————-
Tollner in Darwin is going for a ‘export as much uranium as possible’ policy and going strongly for nuclear power in o/seas countries.
Not sure if that is going to win or lose votes here – probably lose because of the negative association of ‘nuclear power’ and exporting ‘maximum uranium’.
I’d have thought that ALP HQ would be experienced enough to avoid this sort of thing….
Swing Lowe,
I know, paranoid moment please forgive me. But I do want to see that concession speach!
Specifically, ALP lawyers – check this out.
if this is an evidencefree smear, we could se Lib hacks in jail for 6 months.
take the gloves off! Shove this up their grubby snouts.
COMMONWEALTH ELECTORAL ACT 1918 – SECT 329
Misleading or deceptive publications etc.
(1) A person shall not, during the relevant period in relation to an election under this Act, print, publish or distribute, or cause, permit or authorize to be printed, published or distributed, any matter or thing that is likely to mislead or deceive an elector in relation to the casting of a vote.
(4) A person who contravenes subsection (1) is guilty of an offence punishable on conviction:
(a) if the offender is a natural person–by a fine not exceeding $1,000 or imprisonment for a period not exceeding 6 months, or both; or
(b) if the offender is a body corporate–by a fine not exceeding $5,000.
(5) In a prosecution of a person for an offence against subsection (4) by virtue of a contravention of subsection (1), it is a defence if the person proves that he or she did not know, and could not reasonably be expected to have known, that the matter or thing was likely to mislead an elector in relation to the casting of a vote.
Note: A defendant bears a legal burden in relation to the defence in subsection (5) (see section 13.4 of the Criminal Code ).
(6) In this section, publish includes publish by radio or television.
# 679 Glen Says: November 20th, 2007 at 3:38 pm
Yeah… just like scores.
Andrew Robb is giving a press conference he “is not saying they are all ineligable” just getting stuck into Newhouse.
Wentworth must be very tight.
Adam Carr’s Site has the following listed employment. I can’t understand how they think that this will get traction when it’s easy to verify that they don’t have commonwealth jobs.
Shayne Neumann is a partner in an Ipswich law firm, specialising in family law.
Garry Parr (Labor) is a Bundaberg real estate agent
Alan Neilan (Labor), who also ran in 2004, works for the Bynoe indigenous co-operative in Normanton.
Belinda Neal, who stood for this seat in 1998, is a solicitor and former official with the Federated Ironworkers Association. She was an Alderman on the Gosford City Council 1992-94 and a Senator for NSW 1994-98.
Mark Buttigieg (Labor) has degrees in arts and economics, and is a trainer of electrical system operators with Energy Australia.
Ross Daniels (Labor) is a lecturer at Queensland University of Technology and a former President of the Queensland Council of Social Services.
Dr Mark Reynolds (Labor) is associate professor of engineering at the University of Western Australia.
Because their would simply be a by-election which costs tax payers another $1 million where the candidate would win with a bigger swing. Voters would simply be pissed off with the coalition for wasting $1 million per by-election on pointless exercises.
If you want proof, look what happened in Lindsay in 1996. Kelly won at the general election, then won with a far bigger majority at the by-election.
This is going to be a week of desperate, stop at nothing, we are born to rule and we dont care if the electorate want the other lot, tactics from the Tories.
Appearences on TT, nit-picking bureaucratic nonsense, FOI court cases
For Christs sake those 2 knuckleheads on TT , has there ever been anything more manufactured in an election campaign? They reminded me of Morecambe and Wise with their double act but then I remembered that M&C were actually funny.
The bells are tolling for the Tories.
# 685 Mathew Cole Says: November 20th, 2007 at 3:39 pm
What… you mean second-guessing every possible lie the libs can possibly come up with?
Are Liberal Facebook ads in breach of the Electoral Act?
Julie Posetti, who blogs at J-Scribe writes:
The Liberal Party has been caught out apparently breaching Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) rules on political advertising, writes Julie Posetti.
681 Swing Lowe
Absolutely beautiful.
Pi i hardly think any poster on this site can say they support a political party that has never lied to or about anything?
Glen,
There are already 2 exonerations. Remember the Ralph Willis cock up. This could be the same.
Everyone can be relieved to hear that my Kev 07 t shirt arrived today and I’m wearing it to an election par-tay on Sat night.
So if you see some guy wearing a Kev07 tshirt at some part-ay in Brunswick it probably wont be me….but it could be.
I certainly don’t support political parties who propose wasting millions on by-elections when we are having a general election this weekend.
What a pack of economic dunces.
Glen Not enrolling in your own seat is different from not resigning you position in time. Ones stupidity the other is just a technical oversight.
Everyone suspected that Howard would try and pull something and this is it. I suspect even he would have baulked, given the massive downside, but the polls are so bad they’ve thrown caution to the wind.
Rudd really needs to hammer him for this – no smooth media sound bite. He needs to show some indignation at the grubbiness of it.
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