The Sydney Morning Herald reports that Galaxy has conducted a poll for SBS’s Insight program showing Labor leading 52-48 across a sample of marginal electorates: Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Blair, Moreton, Deakin, Stirling and Wakefield. The average margin in these seats is 3.5 per cent, so this suggests a combined swing of 5.5 per cent.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Galaxy: 52-48 in “marginals”
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911 Comments
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Flash and Jude
Fear not, the Rodent knows he is gone. Look at the latest national Newspoll at the Australian (54/46 2pp). Since the start of the campaign Howards approval rating is steady and his disapproval rating has actually worsened. By contrast, Rudd’s approval rating has gone up. The rusted on Liberals will still make the same mistake, but the swing voters are going solidly behind Labor, and nobody is even discussing the possibility of Labor voters defecting. There will be a few upsets where strong Liberal candidates will hang on, and the safest seats will never change, but a lot of marginal seats are going to change hands. The Liberals will be crippled. IMO the result will be so clear in House of Reps that the real question will be if they (Labor + Greens) can also control the Senate.
I am too surprised by Fran Kelly. I have heard her ever since she was on work experience on 3RRR in the 80’s.
She is not biased as a Ackerman or Bolt is biased. What irks me is that she seems to basically read what ‘The Australian’ has written and regurgitate it straight without any filters in the morning.
An example. We had the ALP policy launch, and she had Stephen Smith on the next day. What was the first question? It was about what a disaster it was that that ex-minister from the Hawke government was making ads for the Liberal party. She was making a big play for it: ‘But it was a member of the Hawke Government! It is pretty damaging!’
I did not hear such an emphasis about current government members such as Tony Abbott confirming that workers’ rights have been diminished, or this morning Joyce saying that the IR policies of the Coalition and the ALP are the same.
If Fran wants to see how to be impartial she can take a leaf out of Michelle Grattan that she talks with every morning.
Hemingway @ 145, all good. Message: while ALP isn’t exactly underdog it’s still facing fierce contest right down to wire therefore voters shouldn’t be complacent and careless with their votes.
Interesting – and dated? – assumptions about what matters most to voters. Climate change a mere “social issue”? What, survival is a social issue?
142,
I consider myself a left leaning Labor voter. I live in SW Sydney in a safe Labor seat. But prior to the last few days, I wouldn’t give the DT the time of day in the print edition. Their pro Howard sentiments made me sick to my stomach. SMH the reverse. HOWEVER, due to the endorsements this year, I have totally changed my point of view. I now am happy to pick up a DT from the news stand on occasion and won’t ever again buy the SMH. I am not going there. EVER.
Labor has got a lot of credit in this department. The day a Liberal tells the truth will be a red letter one…
Julie. i agree. I’ve been quite disappointed in the SMH over the past two years. Apparently there is alot of internal issues going on at the paper. low staff morale etc.
Is Fran Kelly the one who was the politics reporter before Michael Brisseldon(?) ? If so, then I like her, she was good.
And Jason Wood (Lib La Trobe) says Australia doesn’t need nuclear………….gee his boss thinks we do!
Dembo. Its Brissenden i think.
@ 129 Julie Says:
Or to put it another way…
MIDDLEMAN @148
Sorry, I didn’t intend to suggest he dismissed his own polling. On the contrary in terms of the accuracy, he was adamant about reliability of his method of calculating 2PP from the Primary voter data (as opposed to the 2004 method).
It’s just that his interpretations and often unfounded opinions came from his narrow point of view that the electorate is ignorant for not re-electing the Howard government when his polls show voters rate Team Howard better at economic management by such a large margin.
Do you recall PJK’s tax cuts as L A W hmmm guess his promise in 1993 was a lie too.
A summary of the campaign polling, broken down into four periods over five weeks can be found here:
http://www.ozforums.com.au/viewtopic.php?id=2004
Thanks Glen for coming up with this trivia. Again it is this crap that excites you but it will mean nothing out there in voter land. Don’t get too excited.
Hey Glen, Keating must have been one of those ‘economic conservatives’ we are all so enamoured of now.
157#
Who says the tories aren’t a broad church lol!
Glen:
Is Paul Keating campaigning again this election?
Meanwhile, we have John Howard, a proven liar, that we can gladly get rid of.
See what happens when you make policy on the run.
LTEP @127
The reason for the Democrats demise is that they went from “keeping the bastards honest” to “keeping the bastards happy” when they passed JHo’s GST under the leadership of Me(Sla)g Lees. Good riddance.
Gary: It’s all they have, none of these things would even be close to a .1% of a swing in an electorate. These are canceled by own goals like ‘hiding Workchoices Mk II’, ‘$10m for rain out of nothing’, Auditor-General’s report, Abbott and all the other stuff.
161 Glen- That quote is correct. Team Rodent’s problem is that, having been in for 11 years, the list of lies is very long and won’t be forgotten until there is a change of Government. Comrade Adams has a good article on it in the Oz.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/phillipadams/index.php/theaustralian/comments/pms_porkies_are_a_true_indicator/
Gary Bruce why should i be excited about seeing Howard 8 points behind in the last week??
I will be very unhappy if we are smashed and lose valuable MPs and Ministers like Ferguson, Keenan and Brough and Turnbull, if they all lost and we got smashed i would be pissed off but if we lose and these MPs hang on it wont be so bad.
Gary Bruce why can’t we just ban the Citizens Electoral Council they are as bad if not worse than the EB!
Aristotle,
Thanks, that confirms just what we thought, steady as she sinks for the SS Liberal Hopes.
Ok Vote1Maxine… apart from the GST? Anything else?
How come Labor aren’t proposing to abolish the GST anymore by the way?
Glen, what do you think of Ferguson providing the application for the Exclusive Brethren to acquire parliamentary lobbyist passes?
I wasn’t aware you supported the religious fanatic faction of the party.
Just heard a Lib ad on commercial radio in Sydney. Tacked onto their usual interest rates fear ad was:
“[and Labor are all] environmental extremists.”
Honestly now: name me a demographic *outside* Liberal Party staffers that even know what an “environmental extremist” is, or would ever associate Labor with being one??
Perhaps just another firewall ad to shore up the all important 55+ climate-skeptic sillly-old-git demographic?
Glen. My god! I think you’ve hit on something that we can all agree on. The Citizens Electoral Council is just plain odd.
173
I voted Democrats in 1998, but since the GST deal, never again.
A party that prides itself on ‘keeping the bastards honest’, then cutting a deal with them, loses all credibility.
Unfortunately for the Democrats, linking up with John Howard will cause their demise.
The Liberals are probably thinking the same thing.
Heres a classic. In the Adelaide Messenger a piece on Bob Day the member for Makin.The headline,”Day:it should be okay to underpay”.I hope all the Makin voters read it.
Re: The Dems Demise.
Does anyone believe they can regain their position in Aust politics? And if so what will it take to do it?
I don’t but from what i know of Ferguson he doesn’t seem like a bad chap.
Yes sure we don’t like Family First or the Greens as they represent the extremes of politics but why should cults be able to run in elections. Next the Scientologists will run!
The only voters who support them are members of their cult. Get rid of em i say its like having the EB stand for elections it’s a joke.
And I’m sure someone’s made this point before, but does anyone else think that the final guy who does the:
“Authorised by B Loughnane Liberal Party Canberra Spoken by Dick Wadd”
bit sounds kinda like an evil Sith Lord? It’s a sign of their unpopularity they couldn’t find a single person to speak those words who doesn’t sounds utterly monster-from-a-sci-fi-movie-sinister?
No middle man, the Democratics have been labelled as finished. Once you get labelled as finished you’re finished. Perception is everything.
MM only if its a DD election after this one, then the Dems have a chance to get back in with reduced quotas. I hope the Dems stay because the Greens can’t co-operate with both sides of politics them Dems can.
Glen
Maybe I’m still mad at Pig-Iron Bob Menzies selling iron Ore to the Japanese just before the war started, but I don’t actually need to go back quite that far to find a reason to vote against Howard. Similarly, if you need to go back to incidents that happened before Rudd entered parliament to argue against voting for Labor, me thinks you are a desperate man.
Is it just me or does Gerard Henderson remind you of Penfold from Danger Mouse?
Julie
The SMH editorial is like a tumour that grows on the side of the paper. Its always there and you can rely on it to go with whatever dogs breaksfast the coalition serves up. Expect the same on Saturday…
Re Fran Kelly – about the best thing you could say about her is that shes competent. Ie she doesn’t trip over the news bulletin or get lost for words. Other than this she’s superficial, irritating, driven by the MSM agenda, and lacks any real political substance. I don’t really care who she votes for, I suspect she might be apolitical, but she is has clearly felt the rod of Mark Scott on her back and like Triolli she wants to be a good girl. Telling the bennelong crowd to be quite or ‘we might get in trouble’ says it all really..Pathetic
Her understanding of polls is a joke and her questions are often loaded with suppositions that are highly contestable. Asking Malcom Fraser if he voted labor was about the level of integrity we’ve come to expect from Fran.
So are people suggesting that the Dems should have blocked supply to the Liberals, even though the GST was part of their platform (not in the first election but certainly the second). I think that would have been irresponsible.
The marginals which are mostly outer suburban are likely swinging a lot less than seats in the Inner City which include a few safe Liberal ones which would be oh my god seats on election night, look out for North Sydney, Ryan, Kooyong, Higgins, Sturt and Boothby.
The Dems would still be around if Labor won the last election. It’s the safe house for all those wet Libs who know that Labor is in power and want some checks and balances. Given the preference deals, we won’t see that this year, but they might just make a come back next Senate election, especially if it is a DD.
Don’t know if anyone has posted this yet, but it’s an hilarious example of what is wrong with the MSM. This is FRONT PAGE of the treeware Daily Telegraph today:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22786277-5012863,00.html
“Labor’s ‘tradie’ caught in the act
By day, he wears the faded blue collar work gear of a disgruntled Howard Battler in Labor’s election campaign television assault.
By night, however, actor Trent Bowater throws off the shackles of the costume department’s tradie rags to become “Robbee” Williams – impersonator extraordinaire.
In a major embarrassment for the ALP, it can be revealed the real lives of the professional actors driving anti-Government sentiment through their hard-luck stories.”
A major embarrassment? Paying an actor to act in an ad?
The Dem’s went backwards beginning with Kernot’s departure and then the split post GST.
Also, they used to occupy the middle ground between the ALP and the Liberals but now they are to the left of the ALP.
Luke:
Hell yeah.
“So are people suggesting that the Dems should have blocked supply to the Liberals”
No, blocking supply refers to not passing a budget. They should have stood firm on the GST which they were mandated to oppose.
187 middle man
The popular vote was against the GST.
And whilst the GST was a reasonable idea in theory.
The compromise GST made life just as difficult as the old system.
This has subsequently wasted billions in advertising, and left us with a tax system almost as complex as before.
Ask any small business owner.
On contemporary newspaper reading habits:
I had occasion to travel to Melbourne yesterday on business. It got me out of western Sydney at time when it was possible to be somewhat contemplative on the train as we travelled east in dawn’s early light.
When I wor a lad people used to read newspapers on their way to and from work. Or a book or a magazine. Yesterday hardly anyone was reading at all. A fair majority just stared vacantly into space with or without music player buds in their ears. The contrast seemed greater at the airport. You used to have to be real quick to get the hostie to give you a paper once you had taken your seat. Now stacks of SMHs and DTs lie virtually untouched in the gateway area although they are quite free to take.
The Democrats were killed by one person: Meg Lees. Never forget that grubby deal she did with Howard to bring in the GST. It’d be a shame to lose good people like Andrew Bartlett, but the Dems are screwed!
Julie @ 153
Spot on about SMH. Their editorial’s all year long are as far right on industrial relations as whatever’s in the secret WorkChoices plan that Howard and Costello won’t release to the FOI request.
Quite often, they will write an editorial on the same day as Ross Gittins, their economics expert of 25 or so years, contradicting point by point any criticisms he has made of the Howard government’s financial or I.R. policies.
Also, I still get a wave of nausea every time I recollect the garbage they wrote last Fed election to justify not giving any recommendation to vote. Obviously, this was a cowardly way to avoid offending 3/4 of their readers, but they sanctimoniously congratulated themselves for being above making such recommendations. I wonder whether they will chicken out again this time.
Only Ross Gittins, Mike Carlton and Peter Fitzgerald Files (on Sunday) are still worth reading, unless one thinks Annabel Crabb is clever and amusing, which I never do.
As far as I’m aware the Democrats are able to vote based on conscience at any given vote. Their philosophy, also as far as I’m aware, is to amend where possible rather than to just block. This means that they seek concessions to lessen harsh (but not overly harsh) legislation.
Was the GST overly harsh legislation? I don’t know that can be argued. It was certainly unpopular, but that’s neither here nor there.
90% of the readership of the SMH disagrees with the editorial line taken.
It doesn’t matter how much the editors advocate the return of the Howard government, the readers and letter writers overwelmingly want a change of govt.
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