The Sydney Morning Herald reports that Galaxy has conducted a poll for SBS’s Insight program showing Labor leading 52-48 across a sample of marginal electorates: Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Blair, Moreton, Deakin, Stirling and Wakefield. The average margin in these seats is 3.5 per cent, so this suggests a combined swing of 5.5 per cent.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Galaxy: 52-48 in “marginals”
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911 Comments
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Wow, Labor into 1.17 on centrebet…. that’s the lowest this year.
According to Tim Dunlop the last Newspoll is going to be released on Friday.
I thought they would survey Thursday and Friday and release it on Saturday.
ShowsOn
Gosh, yes the Sri lanakns are 8/290 now, and they were supposed to have the same chance of winning as Howard. Looks like even the irrelevant statistics aren’t favouring Howard now. LOL
And Mike Kelly in Eden Menaro is into $1.12
I know this is not on point but I received my increased mortgage repayment letter yesterday… I think many people will be receiving these in the next couple of days.. can’t think of any worse timing for the LNP… It is all well and good to read about the mortgage going up.. but when you see what your new repayments are going to be it becomes reality… if the LNP are trying to get a 2% swing in the last few days and people in the mortgage belt are receiving their letters I think it is a task akin to pushing the proverbial up hill…
middleman and LTEP:
We can argue all day about whether the Democrats deal was okay or not.
However, history will be the judge that Meg Lees decision to sell out the Democrats to Howard on this point, was one of the major factors in killing the Democrats.
And I say that as a past Democrat voter, and also being advised to vote democrats on http://www.howdoivote.com.au
Not to say I won’t put them reasonably high on my HTV, but a lot of disgruntled Democrats have moved elsewhere.
CentreBet probably has been hit with a huge bet on Labor.
Just checked: Coalition 5.1 / Labor 1.17
Xmas comes early?!
I think a bet like $2 on Mike Symon in Deakin is an absolute bargain.
Many voters are starting to tune in for the first time right now – and what they are hearing is a veritable deluge of bad news for Coalition – a nightmare scenario for Howard even if he had been competitive at the start of the week, which of course he was not.
*WorkChoices Mk 11 cover-up is an incredibly bad look, feeding directly into Labor script
*Obscene advertising spending splurge
*The Howard and Costello fantasy double act that was even ridiculed by arch-conservative Neil Mitchell on 3AW as Oscar-worthy
*More reminders of AWB ineptitude
Actually, I said that the Sri Lankans have a *better* chance of winning than Howard does.
Even with 8 wickets down, I would suggest this is still the case
Whatever view one personally takes of Meg Lees passing the GST it exposed a deep chasm within the Dems. They were trying to appeal to two constituencies – the pissed off small “l” liberals defecting from the Coalition and left-wing voters pissed off with Labor’s move to the right under Hawke and Keating. The younger generation of Democrats, who came into politics in the 80s belonged to the 2nd constituency. When Lees did the deal the party imploded.
LTEP – There’s already been plenty of informed analysis by people on this site who know much more about these things than you or I to show that most of the swing is occurring where it will count – in vulnerable coalition seats. Haven’t you been paying attention?
NB: Quite a few of the agencies have had next liberal leader up before, although some have taken it down.
Flash: Deakin is an interesting one. I laid a wager on it earlier this year when I thought the odds would come down, but it is one of the few seats that has not moved much. I think there is better value elsewhere (cough Bennelong)
On the Democrats. I think the real reason that many people (including me) turned away from them was not that they made the deal, but that they got screwed by Howard. At the end of the negotiations they walked away with less that half what they wanted. They were bargaining from a position of strength, so this highlighted to me that they were essentially incompetent. I think many people came to the same conclusion.
Ashley@258, agreed. Still an infinately better chance.
Sangakkarra’s a absolute champ – world class.
But yes, SL has about as much chance as Howard winning the election.
197,
I read Annabel Crabb and Ramsey in the online SMH and stories specific to the election but nothing else. I can’t even remember who they endorsed in the state election in March. Were they conservative with that one as well?
So, we’ve got one more Newspoll to go on election morning. When will the sampling for that be carried out? I presume Wednesday and Thursday. If so, that will be fascinating to see how the Workchoices II and other stories have bitten.
And are there any other polls still to come in?
Darn, how can you possibly know where the swing is occurring. We won’t know for sure until election night. What we have are marginal polls showing modest swings, polls in ’safer’ Lib seats (eg. Wentworth, North Sydney, Bennelong) showing quite large swings but possibly not large enough to win on the night and polls showing huge swings in Labor-held marginals or other seats (Adelaide, Hindmarsh, Lilley).
I don’t need to read experts who will tell me what to think. I do a bit of thinking on my own.
Glen says – “Gary Bruce why can’t we just ban the Citizens Electoral Council they are as bad if not worse than the EB!” If you tell me who they are Geln and what they do I may agree with you. But who cares about them anyway?
Those Centrebet odds are amazing!
GB – bloody whackos. I’m not sure it’s worth banning them, if only because this hilarious website might go under: http://www.cecaust.com.au/
Mike 254
Your mortgage repayment letter is exactly on point. When Poss did his analysis of the link between interest rates and voting patterns, he pointed out that there was a slight lag as people started feeling the effects of any rise. If Poss was right (and I think he was) the statistical question was whether the electoral harm would flow through against Howard before the election. As it turned out, Howard has campaigned poorly and failed to regain any momentum anyway, but arguably, it can only go downhill as people start getting those letters in mortgage belt marginals all over Australia.
Howard is saying Rudd is getting cocky, but I think Howard is getting delusional at the same time. He is saying the Libs will hold the 2 Tassie marginals.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/20/2095570.htm
ok then, its settled. The Dems are dead. lack of backbone and a divergence of internal views, ie wet libs v non-union aligned/new left. fair call. hmmm…. so who does a left leaning progressive join if they dont want to have to deal with all the shenanigans that the unions bring to the labor party? and the greens isn’t the answer I’m sorry. they have yet to prove they can really talk about the full spectrum of issues with confidence, and at times reason.
265 – Julie, the SMH endorsed Debnam at the last state election and did so in a 100% serious way. At least the Tele, in endorsing Debnam acknowledged that he was a) a dud and b) wasn’t going to win.
Sangakkara: 150
I suggest someone starts a betting book on just how low the Centrebet Labor odds will go. I say they could get down to $1.12.
Gary Bruce, they’re a party based on the visions of ‘American political activist and conspiracy theorist Lyndon LaRouche’
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizen%27s_Electoral_Council
The CEC’s platform has a variety of planks. Some, such as “the establishment of a National Bank and State Banks to provide loans at 2% or less to agriculture (family farms), industry and for infrastructure development” are traditional policies of the political left in Australia, now abandoned by the Australian Labor Party. Others, such as “the repeal of all Federal and State anti-union legislation passed over the past several years, beginning with the Federal 1996 Workplace Relations Act,” are shared with all parties of the left and centre. A prominent CEC policy sometimes associated with the right is a zero tolerance criminal law enforcement approach to drug issues. The CEC also aligns itself with global warming skeptics; CEC activists at a recent[clarify] televised debate used questions from the audience to make statements comparing the theory of anthropogenic global warming to eugenics and Nazism, declaring it to be “Hitler-Nazi race science”.[
BV: The only question is for those who jumped on at 1.87 for the ALP win, whether its worthwhile hedging the bets
The Sri Lankans are about as hopeless as Tony Abbott LOL
When will a decent cricket side emerge to take on our blokes? I’d like a genuine contest. A second XI of Aussie Pura Cup players taking on Ponting’s men would be preferable to this farce.
WTF is going on with the betting markets? Have they seen some new polling that looks bad for the Rodent?
Haven’t caught up with the earlier posts yet. Does anyone else share my view that the Victorian teachers strike tomorrow is very irresponsible at such a crucial political time. The Libs are already running ads warning of wall to wall strikes if Labor is elected – and this one’s not likely to get the same kind of sympathy as the nurses strike, because it’s right at the time the kids are doing their exams. Not a good look – I reckon it could cost a few votes.
Darn Says:
Galaxy (as william pointed out) implies a swing of 5.5% in those selected marginals. Newspoll implies a swing of 6.8% overall. So, taking MOEs into account this is only weak evidence of the swing in the marginals being less than the overall swing.
The evidence all year has been pointing towards a key variable in determining the swing is the Liberal vote – those electrates with higher liberal votes look like swinging more.
I think this is more likely to result in the ALP getting more seats than the pendulum would predict rather than less.
102.5 hours until the count starts
234, I would put my money on Bishop or Nelson at those odds, but I wouldn’t get caught betting on that question as I am a left leaning Labor voter
middleman: You fall into the same boat as I do.
None of the parties really appeals to me.
I voted informal last election out of disgust.
However, at this point, I am voting greens just because they are the next best choice.
So no more polls until Friday?
Surely Nielsen is doing a poll in Bennelong?
HH, They tried that in the one-dayers remember?
Steve Waugh kyboshed it because the crowd always barracked for the “seconds”. They went damn close too, from memory.
Workchoices II:
The Government recognises that there may be people who are attracted to some aspects of independent contracting (particularly the freedom to contract about one’s own terms and conditions without being restricted by workplace relations legislation) but who would prefer to be employees. This has led some to suggest there should be a third choice of working arrangements: being an employee, but being free to contract without the current restrictions imposed by legislation and industrial instruments. While the Government considers that this concept is worthy of further consideration, this proposed instrument is beyond the scope of this paper.
From a discussion paper released in 2005 but no longer available on the DEWR website.
i did too, with labor getting my preference. Not matter what my gripes with those two are they dont compare to my gripe with Howard’s and his vision for Oz.
Why was that article about Downer knowing about AWB bribes not written by Overington? She would have been the first person that guy would have approached with the story. I suspect she has either been suspended by the GG or declined to run it as it wouldn’t fit with her well-known political agenda.
I haven’t seen Caroline Overington’s by-line since the Wentworth scandal broke.
Rates Analyst: I remember barracking for Australia A.
Re 258,
Ashley Says:
Hmm …. you obviously haven’t seen Murali bat much
….. both Sri Lanka and Howard are cactus 
Nothing new needs to happen. Time passes, the hours tick by, and everything stays the same. The closer we get to the election, the lower the odds will go — unless we get a poll which suggests that Howard will somehow pull through. Dunno how low they’ll go… I wouldn’t have thought much lower than 1.14-1.15.
Maybe she is too busy trying to get a root?
HH @ 278 : The problem is that the Sri Lankans are supposed to be the 2nd best team. The divide between Australian and the rest of the world when it comes to test cricket is getting worse. I wish the West Indies get their act together, that used to be some fun.
It could come down to the fact that the other countries are focusing on ODI’s and the 20/20 games. While I think the ODI’s still have a place, the 20/20 games are a farce.
Asanque and Middle man
We are not far apart. Green with Labor prefernce for me too. I would vote Dems in the Senate if I lived in Qld but not here. I still want Labor to do more on climate change and ethical issues like Haneef before they would get my first vote.
Ayn Rand used to get side-tracked in long diatribes on the greatness of unfettered capitalism in her books. From my distant memory.
52/48 is good for the marginals – only need to win them not obliterate, saving some of that 54/46 for the safer Liberal seats. Possum’s analysis is seemingly on the money re the order of swings. Labor seats smallest swing, marginals next then safer Liberal seats.
Newspoll commentator reckons the undecideds are moving to Howard? They guy must be on drugs. The undecideds will be favouring the trend, as usual.
54/46 was probably more like 54.5/45.5 looking at the preferences but not knowing the actual fractions for the primaries. Anyway it is 54+ and I like Possum & Jackmans modelled estimate of the final result. 54-55%
I’ve always contended it was the infighting in 2002 that killed the Democrats.
Remember they won 4 senators in 2001 after the GST was implemented.
LTEP (267) I’ll grant you that experts aren’t always right. But if they really know their stuff they’ll be right much more often than non experts like you and me. That’s why I take what they say on board when formulating my opinions – unlike your good self it seems.
It seems that Caroline’s career at the Australian may be Overington
Howard goes in to bat for Musharraf. Perhaps the Chaser were right when they said Howard would introduce martial law if the polls stayed bad.
Mr Howard said he was quite concerned about the emergency declaration and unrest in Pakistan but had “mixed emotions” about General Musharraf.
“I like General Musharraf, I think he’s been very courageous,” he said.
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