The Sydney Morning Herald reports that Galaxy has conducted a poll for SBS’s Insight program showing Labor leading 52-48 across a sample of marginal electorates: Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Blair, Moreton, Deakin, Stirling and Wakefield. The average margin in these seats is 3.5 per cent, so this suggests a combined swing of 5.5 per cent.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Galaxy: 52-48 in “marginals”
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911 Comments
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LTEP and Pancho – Thanks for that info. They sound like a bunch of dills, like EB. I think most people will view these sects/organisations this way.
I don’t think banning is the way to go either. They’re entitled to their warped opinions.
Albert F (288) Thanks for that analysis. Very enlightening.
Agree – disunity is death, especially since the Democrats didn’t have a strong party infrastructure like the two majors.
Diogenes
Yes Howard is not so much a small-l liberal as a Big-F Fascist. He needs to remember that the “free” bit is actually supposed to be MORE important than the “free market” bit.
middleman-
I used to think that The Green’s were too single -issue (ie enviroment)focussed and did not have a good enough grasp of other issues to formulate sensible policy.
Having really looked into it about 4 years ago after my disgust at Labour’s backing of Howard over Tampa, and seeing the democrats as selling out, I was pleasantly surpried. Now I am a candidate at this election.
So, I suggest you get on the website and read up – and let me know what you think.
Cheers, J.
VCBet has also slashed Labor’s odds: 1.18 / 4.5
(it was 1.25 / 3.5 in the past few days)
Ah, democracy at work with the micro-parties like CEC, FF, ONP all trying their best to ‘fix Australia’. Fielding has done nothing except make a fool of himself, ONP was a joke, and the CEC don’t know where they stand with some really leftie policies and some extreme right ones at the same time.
Every election the Senate paper gets bigger and bigger due to new micro-parties making an appearance.
I also think that the “keeping the bastards honest” slogan was good for a certain moment in history. But ultimately it meant that they were only a reactive party and that their existence was always made by reference to a major party, ie we agree, we disagree. In the end they failed to articulate their own unique message that could stand alone withiout reference to the major parties. The greens have managed to do this.
Darn, the ‘experts’ know nothing more than the rest of us. I take what they say on board, but with a grain of salt. People seem to rely on this expert advice to counter any polling which doesn’t look brilliant for Labor.
Labor’s behind in a marginal? Oh well! Safer seats will save the day!
I don’t agree with that logic there that says that must be the case.
Darn – the teachers strike is limited to one day and most schools either maintain a skeleton staff. In fact very few schools as a whole close for the day. Usually only individual classes are affected if at all. As far as the exams are concerned apparently ex teachers are being brought in where necessary to oversee them.
I really don’t see it as being a problem for the Feds.
Yep, the Libs would need to see better polling just to hold their odds steady.
In a two horse race, with ALP needing 16 seats I can’t see the Libs going higher that $6.
For what its worth there is about 60k looking to back the ALP at $1.29 to $1.31 on betfair – not much on the other side.
Darn – the teachers strike is limited to one day and most schools maintain a skeleton staff. In fact very few schools as a whole close for the day. Usually only individual classes are affected, if at all. As far as the exams are concerned apparently ex teachers are being brought in where necessary to oversee them.
I really don’t see it as being a problem for the Feds.
I was a Democrat for many years and thought they/we performed a very valuable role in amending hundreds of pieces of legislation and occasionally blocking bad ones. Democrats really took the trouble to read all pieces of legislation very carefully and many of the proposed amendments were accepted.
It’s sad to see their end but all things must end. The DLP is long gone too.
Family First will most likely fade away in Federal politics.
The Greens on the other hand are the party of the moment. What they have been going on about for years, led by the highly capable Bob Brown, is the survival of life on earth. Life as we know it is genuinely at risk. We have been madly destroying the earth in pursuit of material gain and it’s catching up on us.
The Greens will do very well, perhaps better than ever before, as they should.
I will certainly be voting Greens one, giving the Democrats a sentimental number two and then preferencing Labor. Many in this seat of Richmond will be voting Greens one to give the incoming government a big message about global warming and then Labor two. Likewise the seat of Page.
In the end the Democrats were destroyed by one thing, EGO. The older Senators were jealous of Natasha. Each one wanted to be party leader and they almost all were in turn. It’s sad, but the party’s over.
Kevin Rudd may well be still saying “it’s going to be tight” and John Howard has to say “we can still win” but neither is true.
Particularly after the latest series of revelations about secret WorkChoices plans, Peter Debnam quite rightly supporting Kyoto, Malcolm Turnbull and his crazy rainmaking donation, the election won’t be “tight” at all.
It looks as though even Joe Hockey is in for the chop. The forecast looks good for Mike Bailey. Sunny days ahead.
The simple fact is the Coalition has not a remote hope of winning with its primary stuck at 41%, not a ghost of a chance.
Note that Kevin Rudd is campaigning in “safe” Liberal seats. He’s not campaigning in seats with margins of two or three per cent.
After the coverage in the Courier Mail about what he will do to boost Queensland when he becomes Prime Minister, how many Queenslanders will be voting for John Howard? It’s not in their interests.
I still go for at least 85-62-3 independents (might be a surprise independent), may well be several seats more for Labor.
The latest betting odds say it all.
GB (309) Thanks for that info. Hope you’re right about it not being a problem.
LTEP – just what do you use to make your judgements then if not data and outside info?
The best reason not to ban crazy micro parties is that you can use their membership lists accompanying their AEC application to keep an eye on where the crazies are
If anyone here lives in Bennelong and gets polled today or tomorrow, be sure to let us know. And don’t forget to ask whether it is a Bennelong or a national poll, and when it is coming out!
I think the other thing we should remember about the teachers strike is that it is happening under John Howard.
I do use data, I’ve explained it several times. From the data, the most likely outcome is a relatively comfortable Labor victory. However, also from the data you cannot dismiss the possibility that the Coalition will be returned.
I don’t subscribe to the view that the polls are wrong. I don’t think you can ever conclude that until after an election. All I’m saying is that it’s possible, even given the available evidence for the Coalition to just scrape through.
I reject the notion that we need to sit back and accept the ‘evidence’ provided by ‘experts’ who really know nothing more than any of us.
The End of the Democrats marked the complete victory of political cynicism in Australia. Many people, even those not supporting the Democrats, watched the experiment with a kind of curiousity: Could they defy political gravity and produce a party that really was both beyond politics, and an effective contributor to the process.
The answer was never in doubt, but it was the scale of the brutal, nasty blood-letting and cannibalism that ensured an entire generation of politics watchers would see political idealism for what it is. The popularity of the Greens at present is just a blip and if they control the Senate, for example, there will be a backlash next time around. Prime Minister Rudd will act as effectively as any leader will be able to on the question of climate change.
Hhahahah Barnaby Joyce says he will vote for Labor’s I.R. policy.
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/20/2095273.htm?section=justin
LTEP (308) Your comments imply that all the psephs on the site are so blinded by their prejudices that their judgements cannot be trusted. I have more respect for them than that
Flash it is not a question of acting “as effectively as any leader will be able to on the question of climate change”. We have no option.
He has to act decisively notwithstanding the coal, gas and oil lobbies.
“Able to” is simply not enough.
We are talking here of life as we know it on this planet. Kevin Rudd will not be able to fiddle while the planet burns. If he doesn’t act quickly and effectively in reducing our emissions and persuading other recalcitrant countries such as the USA and China to do likewise then we will pay for the consequences.
We already have a taste of things to come with the ever enduring drought.
That’s absolutely nothing compare to what is to come.
Double D is not an exciting prospect for dear old Barnaby, eh?
LTEP,
None of us know for sure what the outcome will be. I think the betting markets putting about an 80% chance on the ALP have it about right.
Just because Keating’s marginal campain failed in ‘96 doesn’t mean the Libs strategy won’t work. But, objectively, the evidence points to a comfortable ALP win with a chance of it being tight and something need to break the Libs way over the next few days for them to win.
Still a year ago I would have thought the ALP might struggle even improve their current position.
Six months ago I would have expected the final week to be showing 51-52 overall polling.
In the big scheme of things the poll for the ALP are good but, yes, not entirely conclusive – thats what the election is for
So I’ll just worry away the rest of the week and look foward to Saturday Night.
292-that would seem to be the least of her problems. Hopefully her career is overandout.
Thanks Richard and Jen for the info. Hmmm… how fun to have someone from a wholesale funds management career join the greens… of course i’m sure i wouldn’t be the first.
and just on theme music for elections… i just cant get the Gomez track “Bring it on” out of my head…..
If any of you are stressing out about the election (as I was last night and this morning), do what I did – go to the nearest driving range, pick up a large bucket of balls and imagine John Howard’s face on all of them!
It’s the perfect stress-release mechanism ever…
Someone at this blog made a theme song suggestion for Saturday night that is an absolute winner I think.
Like A Rolling Stone..
How does it feel
How does it feel
To be on your own
With no direction home
Like a complete unknown
Like a rolling stone?
Right about now must be the time when sitting MPs and candidates start to have time to freak out/stress:
-most of the set-piece events of the campaign are over;
-pre-poll votes are starting to ramp up;
-advertising blackout is almost here;
-only one-more round of polling to go; and
-leaders are making their final visits to particular States/regions.
I wonder which side feels more confident?
Saw this and pasted it from another blog
To all liberals who say that a return to unionism wil constrict our market. Can you please explain to me why California (the 5th biggest economy in the world and bigger than Australias, has the worlds MOST unionised workforce).
Or maybe their successful economy is actually a lie, you know that thing that JH keeps doing…..
Why hasn’t Rudd pointed this out?
How close can it get?
The varying swings in each state may well decide this election!
Scenario 1: A 3.2% 2PP swing to ALP made up as follows:
NSW +4.6% (6 seats), Vic +0.0% (0 seats), Qld +6.0% (3 seats), SA + 0.8% (3 seats), Tas +2.9% (2 seats), WA +2.1% (2 seats), NT +3.0% (1 seat). Total 17 seats won 0 losses ALP 50.5% 2PP = 77 seats LNP 49.5% 2PP = 71 seats + IND 2 seats. A small win.
Scenario 2: An alternative larger swing (equally plausible):
A 4.2% 2PP swing to ALP made up as follows:
NSW +3.4% (3 seats), Vic +4.8% (still 0 seats), Qld +5.5% (2 seats), SA + 5.3% (still 3 seats), Tas +7.9% (still 2 seats), WA -0.1% (lose 2 seats), NT +5.0% (still 1 seat). Total 11 seats won 2 seats lost ALP 51.5% 2PP = 69 seats LNP 48.5% 2PP = 79 seats + IND 2 seats. A comfortable win for JWH!
These are NOT my predictions, merely an illustration of the effect state variations can have on the final 2PP figures and the seat count.
The 6 winnable seats that vary are NSW: Bennelong, Page, Wentworth, Qld: Blair, WA: Stirling, Hasluck. The 2 potential losses are WA: Cowan, Swan
The 11 won in both scenarios are NSW: Parramatta, Lindsay, Eden-Monaro, Qld: Bonner, Moreton, SA: Makin, Kingston, Wakefield, Tas: Bass Braddon, NT: Solomon.
In Scenario 2 the LNP would hold 12 seats with less than 1% 2PP and a further 7 seats less than 2% 2pp. A 2PP swing to the ALP of 4.7% or more would probably deliver enough of these to give victory in any circumstance. That is ALP 52% 2PP LNP 48% 2PP. That’s what we should watch for on Saturday night.
My personal prediction of ALP 53.7% 2PP still stands (and would deliver 30 seats on the night).
318 LTEP – I must be honest and say I’m buggered if I know what your position is now, the sand keeps on shifting. But like all of us you are entitled to your opinion.
Re Overington,
The GG collective ears must have been burning. She has a new post up.
331 – My view is that the ALP campaign has been too soft and they could have made more out of it.
I.e. they are winning but they could be winning by more.
Then again the Liberal campaign has been a complete shambles.
I just can’t wait to see what LTEP has to say for him/herself on Saturday night…
it will be vindication for the realists.
Just read caroline’s effort. wish i had done something productive with that 45 seconds.
Overington’s article is a complete joke. The Australian’s commentators have now suggested we ignore the polls completely and just “believe” that Howard will win.
Ask yourself this – if the Coalition was leading 54/46, would we even be arguing about the election result? I think not…
I think she must be watching …….
Overinton’s conclusion:
“The election is not over. It is far too close to call.”
BUT is it too close to email?
So who is she hitting on for s#x this week?
Red wombat,
I’m tempted to respond, but I don’t want to get William in trouble…
Overington’s post has a factual error. She says Keating won, even though he was behind in all the polls for 1993. This is untrue, the last three Newspolls before the election were all statistical ties. In fact the 2nd to last one was 50/50.
Here’s an interesting article over at the SMH, on journos and website hits. A salient point for staying away from the GG.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/web/one-hit-wonders-need-not-apply/2007/11/20/1195321743207.html
Flash @ 329
It has to be “Another bites the dust”.
Kochie and Hockey can be rocking to it as each seat goes down.
I don’t think I would get tired of that song on election night, remember we will probably hear it at least 32 times or more.
Maybe a range of songs
Another one bites the for the backbenchers
Something different for the ministers
Something special for Bennelong, two songs, one to farewell howard and one to congratulate Maxine.
RE LTEP’s comments and anxiety about what will really happen, I have some sympathy. The logic side of me says Labor will win – all the evidence is there, but there is a sneaky thought all the time – what if something goes wrong?
One way of looking at the situation is to consider the psephs v. the journalists. I contend that they two groups have fundamentally different pyschological profiles. In Myers -Briggs typology language journalists are generally feeling types while the psephs are thinking types. The journalists go for relationships, the psephs go for logic.
If the situation was reverse and the LNP had been receiving the polls of Labor the commentariate would be pealing the bells on a possible record win for Howard, the destruction of the Labor party and so forth. There would not be the slightest doubt in their mind of LNP victory.
I think when Howard goes down so do they, to the shelves of party hack journalist who let themselves by owned by government.
Not only is time for new government it is time for new journalists and editors.
My theme song for Saturday night involves a rather well known piece made famous by Freddie Mercury
The Dems deserve their demise.
Any party which has the “Alice” doctrine of presenting policies but proudly claiming also that elected members can vote however they like just shows the depth of delusion and stupidity of their supporters.
Their MPs can’t have been blind to the mass Democrat opposition to the GST in any form, yet went ahead and supported it – and Meg Lees was mealy-mouthed when defending herself.
I think we would all remember the grin on Howard’s face as both he and Lees walked down the corridor just after she gave the nod to her party’s death warrant.
Indeed JH was the cat that got the cream – served up on a platter.
The Dems have had (and still do have) some good people. Pity about the party they chose.
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