The Sydney Morning Herald reports that Galaxy has conducted a poll for SBS’s Insight program showing Labor leading 52-48 across a sample of marginal electorates: Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Blair, Moreton, Deakin, Stirling and Wakefield. The average margin in these seats is 3.5 per cent, so this suggests a combined swing of 5.5 per cent.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Galaxy: 52-48 in “marginals”
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Possum has a great post up re Howard’s latest “VOTE FOR ME OR WORKCHOICES GETS IT!” pitch:
“It’s true – they’ve gone mad and eaten Mark Textor”
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/11/20/it%e2%80%99s-true-%e2%80%93-they%e2%80%99ve-gone-mad-and-eaten-mark-textor/
re 348,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sogKUx_q7ig
Coalition / Labor
LassetersSport: 4.75 / 1.19
CentreBet: 4.95 / 1.18
VCBet: 4.5 / 1.18
Julie,
Which one are you talking about:
“Another One Bites the Dust” OR “We are the Champions” OR “I Want It All”?
I find it odd that after spending all year telling us they understand newspoll because they own it, The Oz journos now seem so sure that it’s pointless.
353, We are the Champions, sorry hit send before I pasted the link
Stupidity and bias, thy name is Overington. How can she even “blog” with a straight face after being shown to be a Coalition preference pusher. And what about this gem from 7 November?
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/coverington/index.php/theaustralian/comments/rates_rise_is_good_news_for_howard
Caroline wrote something today I was thinking just last night:
“Rudd has been smooth as silk. The man is as good a politician as we’ve seen in this country. ”
I put Julia up alongside that as well. What a contrast she will be as Deputy Prime Minister with the baseball cap wearing, skateboarding, Auditor General ‘dissin’ Mark Vaile.
There were a handful of journalists in 1996 who thought Keating would scrape back in. There were claims they could win seats in Victoria and that they were coming back in Queensland.
I await with interest for Caroline’s next blog entitled “Why Black is White”, to be followed by “Why Up is Down”.
Wow Centrebet has the LNP @$4.95; Sportsbet and sportingbet have them at only $4.15… that’s a pretty large variance.
Obviously someone has put down another huge bet
Go for growth? watch this a be amused
If the ALP wins this election – will they thank Latham for the unlikely way it which he laid the groundwork? By running such a crap campaign in 2004 the Libs were handed control of both houses and a sense they were in power for at least two terms (the political equivalent of being immortal).
Without the senate majority there would have been no WorkChoices. Without WorkChoices the ALP would now be struggling.
Now here’s the funny thing. Rudds “abolishing” of WorkChoices still results in a radical shift in the ALP industrial policy. The ALP will come into power with all the reforms that would be politically impossible for them execute (tax, industrial, super) done. The key areas to be worked on, health, education, climate change, etc are very much in their domain and relatively easy to work on with the greens in the balance of power.
I’m not sure the ALP would see it this way but this is a much better election for the ALP to win than the last one.
Of course they still have to win.
take 2 go for growth ???
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fjKBf1N2Wls&eurl=http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=639471818
enjoy
I think the election song on the night should be the dancing celebration song of the ewoks at the end of Return of the Jedi.
“She said basing hiring and firing decisions on hits was “very bad for journalism” as it meant that “certain types of stories are not going to get covered in whole areas of the media”.”
Does that mean we can get rid of Oversimpleton, Albastardsen and the like? Just don’t click, say no to clicking on them.
The latest from the die hard Liberal supporting journalists and soothsayers is that the election is too close to call although Labor is seemingly in front. As others have said here, would we really be having this conversation if the polls were the other way around? No way. So there really lies the truth of the matter. I must say though Kieren Gilbert on Sky was on the money. He says it would take a miracle for the Libs to get back from here and that their best hope now is that people change their mind at the last minute. Me thinks that’s a forlorn hope.
Rudd’s campaigning in Macarthur – interesting…
When you think about it, what more do these people want before they can say the election looks like a landslide to Labor, 60 – 40?
If Howard and Costello are “married”, surely it’s one of the most abusive, dysfunctional and miserable of relationships – especially if you are Peter, who must feel like he’s experiencing “battered” wives syndrome
Regular as clockwork, once a year or more for the last 5-6 years we’ve seen husband John beat up on his partner…publicly humiliating him in the worst way – please see biography “John Winston Howard”…
and just as regularly we see Peter running back…battered and bruised, but prepared to give the relationship another go on basis of the most meagre scraps of evidence of her partner’s “love”….surely this time things will be better…
and last night with that penetrating political interviewer anna coren we had the latest instalment…
and sure enough today, howard grabs back the pathetic sliver of support he gave to peter last night:
FED: Howard denies Costello camaraderie is a show
Poll07 Leadership Daylead
CANBERRA, Nov 20 AAP – Commentators who think Prime Minister
John Howard and Treasurer Peter Costello are faking their
friendship are wrong, Mr Howard says.
The two men put their past leadership issues aside to present an
image of a unified Liberal Party team in a joint interview on the
Seven Network’s current affairs program Today Tonight last night.
It was the first time the pair had taken part in a joint
television interview.
In it, they agreed their relationship was like a marriage, with
Mr Howard praising his treasurer’s sense of humour and Mr Costello
admiring the prime minister’s work ethic.
Newspaper commentators today cast doubt on the sincerity of the
interview, saying the two men detested each other.
Mr Howard said the commentators were wrong.
“For sure, Peter and I have had our disagreements. He’s an
ambitious man, I respect ambition in anybody,” Mr Howard told ABC
Newsradio.
“No two people could work together as closely as we have over
11-and-a-half years – it’s the longest unbroken prime
ministerial-treasurer partnership in Australian political history.
“Just think for a moment – how on earth can two people occupying
the two most interactive and interdependent positions work together
for so long and so effectively if they didn’t have a personal
regard for each other.”
Mr Howard told Today Tonight that Mr Costello would be elected
unopposed by the party room to replace him when he stepped down, if
the coalition was re-elected.
AND HERE COMES THE PUNCH:
But today he said that was just his belief, not an order.
“It’s a party room decision but my prediction, my belief is that
he won’t be opposed and he will have my full support,” Mr Howard
said.
AAP mfh/rl/it/jlw
Yeah right – just like Howard expected Frasers support over Peacock in 83….
Peter, mate….the whole community is sick and tired of you being ritually castrated, year in, year out…
Just leave…Please….for the sake of the children (ie, the rest of your party)
There must be a womens shelter in Higgins or thereabouts you can flee to for refuge…or have you forgot to fund them adequately?
Its hard to see how Howard could do more damage…
this is just like the sorry, not sorry day over interest rates…..
except its “Pete’s the guy, but I can’g guarantee nuttin…’”
to quoth another blogger here: oh, the humanity
Can’t wait to hit the blogs on the GG after the election..
GB,
If the poll said 60/40, they would just say “the polls are clearly wrong – there’s never been a Federal Election in Australia since WWII where one party has got 60% of the TPP” and then would say the Coalition must have a chance, therefore…
Swing Lowe with respect it’s not interesting, Rudd doesn’t want a majority of less than 8 seats he wants a landslide and a majority of 20 seats that’s why he needs to campaign in those seats like Macarthur.
Good luck trying to bring down Pat Farmer, the locals like the chap up there and he’ll be returned with his hefty margin mostly in tact.
Glen,
That’s probably right (on both counts). Farmer looks safe in Macarthur, but it shows that if Labor was worried about marginal seats like Lindsay or Dobell, it would spend time campaigning there rather than in Macarthur…
My comment on Overington’s blog:
Howard makes Costello seem like such a eunach. I wonder if he has any self respect at all.
I couldn’t even be bothered reading Caroline’s latest article. I already know that it will be “colourful” trash dressed up as “informed” comment. Let me guess, she is predicting a Coalition win after finding an obscure piece of information when last rummaging through somebody’s rubbish bin?
Whatever it will be, it will be full of holes, contradictions, and weird logic (or lack of logic). And of course, plenty of baseless assumptions.
Overington has learnt the art of getting people all outraged by making hysterical claims. And every time people flock to her blog to condemn her for it, The Australian gets advertising revenue and she gets the attention that she craves.
So, I bypass her completely. She is better left alone with her crazed mutterings.
Swing Lowe Says:
November 20th, 2007 at 12:55 pm
Rudd’s campaigning in Macarthur – interesting…
Seat number 115 on the pendulum – nice one to snag.
GB – what we want is for the election to be over.
What we want is to know once and for all that this is NOT another 1969, nor a 1993 in reverse.
We want our sleep back… [dramatic music]
Oops, that should have been “by next Sunday morning”
Rudd out at Campbelltown again today. I’ve never believed Farmer would fall, but it doesn’t look like Labor agree with me.
Gary Bruce – spot on. If the LNP was on 54% the newspapers wouldn’t even bother to hide the landslide factor.
Yes winninng from opposition is hard, but if it was 50-50, or 51-49, or even 52-48 then maybe!
(and yes I know this poll is 52-48 but it’s a marginal poll – I’m telling you know if these marginal polls were so fantastic they would not even bother to do a national poll – at least during an election. – marginal polls do two things 1, sell newspapers because 54-48 sure as hell won’t do that; 2. give Galaxy et al a nice no-lose cover. If the ALP wins they will never mention the marginal polls again and point only to the national; if the LNP win tey can say “well we told you to look at the marginals”).
To be honest I’d never heard of this Overington person before last week. Somehow I doubt regular people have. Most of the time when I mention Laurie Oakes people are “Who?”. If they don’t know Laurie they’re not going to know Caroline.
Can we read much into Rudd campaigning in Macarthur? Not really. It could just mean he knows he’s not going to get seats elsewhere so he needs to find somewhere he can win. I don’t think so though.
Yay! First comment on Caroline’s blog (and she responded to me).
Btw, I was surprised by the amount of Pollbludgers commenting on that blog – ShowsOn and GG are 2 of the other 6 commenters on that blog…
And Downer is campaining in SINGAPORE?!?!?!
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Downer-leaving-campaign-for-Singapore/2007/11/20/1195321738865.html
If the polls were the other way around it would be a completely different story as the government already has a commanding majority of seats. Labor winning 52, 53 or 54% of the 2PP could still mean a Coalition government.
Nothing in the current news cycle makes me regret my $200.00 Centrebet punt on the government to hold onto power.
It will be sad to see the gloating, and the gutted Rudd concede defeat, but at least I’ve have a bit more money to spend on Sunday lunch at the pub…
Hey, want to buy a Harbour Bridge?
LETP you’re right about Overington, I mentioned her to my wife and she shook her head saying who?
Plus until I saw her article on mediawatch I used to think her name was Overton lol.
It’s not such a bad thing for the media to be talking down the prospect of a landslide to Labor. It helps to stop those people who want Labor to win but might otherwise be tempted to vote for the Coalition in order to stop Labor from having a “big” win. Provided that people still expect Labor to win, then it helps to lock in the Labor vote.
Andrew, I take it you’re saying that rather than the possibility of Howard winning, it’s probable that he will.
In other words you’re saying it’s almost certain he will win right?
Correct but hasn’t Rudd already campaigned in those seats?? And if he wants a significant margin to fight the 2010 election should he win on Saturday he’s going to need to capture seats on 8-10+% margins to build this so called 90 + seat result.
Rudd has to campaign there in seats like Macarthur, but personally i think it’s a waste of time, he would do better to spend more time in Melbourne or Perth IMHO.
Albert I dont see the Alp thanking latham for much more than than the fat liberal margins they have to clawback at this election. You’re right though about the control of the senate being linked to the demise of the libs at this election. if it turns out to be the case it can mean a few things 1 that democracy in some shape or form is working to correct the balance, and 2 the libs obviously can’t be trusted controlling both houses of parliment. I hope the greens get the balance in the senate. bob brown was fired up on LL lastnight he reckons its already in the bag as he speculating about 6-7 senators, tony jones was doing his best to play the lil shit but.
If Rudd is supposedly campaigning in ’safe’ Liberal seats (some call them second tier), when is he going to be seen hanging around Paterson?
Glen, I don’t think Rudd gives a damn about 2010.
Unless the polls are lying what on earth is Rudd up to? Getting the margins down for a DD later on? I guess it is a good opportunity to reduce margins in the safer Liberal seats, if you are certain you don’t need to go guarantee the marginals.
You would think he would work his way up the pendulum. Something funny is going on.
Andrew: Using the pendulum, the ALP needs 51.7% TPP. I agree 52% is close, but 53 or 54% is alot. I used my simulator at home to prove that at 54% TPP, the Libs have 0% chance of winning. Even at 53% TPP, Labor had like 89% of an outright win and 10% of a minority government, and the LNP had 1% chance.
Coalition has drawn back to $4.60
Why? The election will be won or lost in NSW and QLD.
Why Howard is in Tasmania I have no idea. Bass and Braddon are gone.
But I guess he had to finally go there once on day 38 of the campaign.
Grog, that is in from $5.10 mid morning …..
Sadly, mad cow, I think Paterson is going to be a bridge too far for Labor this election. I’m guessing the internals are showing that Labor has a better shot in Macarthur than in Paterson (even though this seems a bit weird).
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