The Advertiser has published a survey of 617 respondents from Boothby which shows Liberal incumbent Andrew Southcott leading Labor’s Nicole Cornes 52-48 on two-party preferred. Southcott’s lead on the primary vote is 41 per cent to 32 per cent, which suggests the “don’t know” component has not been excluded. The poll was conducted on Monday night. A similar poll published on September 26 had the primary vote gap at 44 per cent to 29 per cent.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Advertiser poll: 52-48 to Liberal in Boothby
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161 Comments
BILL LEAK – Genius!
ROUND 15 – 10 SECONDS TO GO!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/imagedata/0,,5760143,00.jpg
Hurray for Southcott the Dorothy Dixer King is safe!
Damn, I just put $20 on her.
Oh well, Libs are working hard to lose a couple of percentage points by Saturday, so I am still in the hunt.
SEIV XI may i remind you we have 30% of the know WORLD reserves of URANIUM!
But because of your anti-nuclear Labor Govts we don’t know how much more uranium we’ve got in WA or QLD.
It’s ok to export our uranium to other countries to be used in their nuclear power stations to reduce emissions but somehow its not good enough for us hah.
Labor’s Climate Change policy is quite simply a bennite solution it is a radical left wing solution to the problem after all Rudd has committed us to targets without assessing the impact to our economy!!!
A good poll for Southcott and this is SA we’re talking about, i’ve told you radicals this election will be a squeaker and it will IMHO.
I don’t think any one really expected her to win and the Libs would have had to pour a lot of resources into the seat so I think she’s done her job. They should give her another shot in 2010, by then she’ll be a seasoned expert with the media.
Just a carry on from the past thread.
Increasing the cost of carbon one way or another might eventually make nuclear power competitive.
The problem for nuclear power is, in that case, renewables will be even more competitive.
That’s why built into ziggy’s report is a raft of indirect subsidies.
This is a big narrowing from the previous polling and reports of internal polling both sides have either confirmed or not denied.
I thiink she is still in the game, she is against one of the worst Lib candidates in the country (excluding Tuckey who is in an ultra-safe seat)
So has Labor though paul k they’ve spent up big in SA and in Boothby.
So few ads on TV and most of them are Union ads, we can’t afford ads like them because we don’t have the Unions bosses handing out millions to our party unlike Labor.
’sighs’
Glen, I’ve already taken you thoroughly to task over nuclear vs renewable.
Now that that is settled, I’ll repeat what I said for GP.
Promoting nuclear is poor economic management.
So what. The Libs would sell their grandmothers if they could.
The Rudd camp planned for everything it seems
http://www.smh.com.au/ffximage/2007/11/20/kevinrudd_poster_narrowweb__300×407,0.jpg
10
who would buy a grandmother that breed those idiots?
Howcome your big business mates didnt pay up Glen?
Could it be that dont really care that much for your policies either?
Cornes isn’t out of it yet, this seat will be close.
Re: the whole candidacy issue
Reminds you of the America’s Cup debacle between America and New Zealand when the losers kept going to court to argue about the size of the boats, etc instead of racing. If you can’t win fairly, find a lawyer.
Pitty she got such a bad start.
27% green/other/undecided is very large hmmm
Back to the poll.
Methodology?
This is definitely going to be one of the closer seats.
Still reckon she’s going to win it though.
Hah, hardly Lefty E we get considerable money from the top end of town, trouble is so do you but we don’t have trade unions giving us multi million dollar donations like Rudd has enjoyed from the Union bosses.
Paul k might i remind you Rudd supports our uranium policy.
Backdown barney true to form.
“NATIONALS senator Barnaby Joyce has backed away from comments that he would not try to block Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd’s planned industrial relations changes if Labor wins power on Saturday.”
Southcott is on the workplaces committee, astrong supporter of Work Choices.
Cornes to win it on the night. Saw Southcott interviewed the other night. What a low quality candidate.
Has “time server” written all over him.
kina, is that for real?
Ye of little faith don’t write her off yet. These Advertiser polls, despite the large sample size, are notoriously all over the place. They must get their cadet reports to ring homes during business hours. I’d like to see a demographic break down of the respondents.
Was Joe MacDonald misquoted in the lib ads?
“Comrades, we need to get excersize for 30 minutes a day, so we will walk down that path over there for 15 minutes then, we’re coming back, we’re coming back!”
“Comrades, we need to get in our utes and drive away from this orphanage to a toy store, fill our utes with toys and then, we’re coming back, we’re coming back!”
“Honey I have left the oven on, Kev and I are going to the bottle shop to get a carton and then, we’re coming back, we’re coming back!”
lol and only last night people were championing Cornes as a likely victor.
But we don’t need it Glen, its a risk we don’t have to take, and with a bit of entrepreneurial get up and go in the energy sector we’d see a clean green horizon that would be profitable to business. So why are we stuck in debate about old and potentially life threatening tech? Is it because you and your masters are owned by people without conscience? You are on the wrong side of energy debate Glen.
Just before you all get too depressed about Boothby. Might I remind you that the MoE of a 617 poll is about 3.95%, even assuming the house effect is not somwhat substantial … it could quite easily be at 50-50.
Actually, Glen, a number of unions have been giving money to the Greens instead this time.
Glen,
Doesn’t mean I have to and doesn’t mean he can’t be persuaded to change. Unlike Howard our soon to be new PM Rudd still listens to the people.
No 27
How pompously arrogant SIEV IV. You can’t accept nuclear because you keep referring to hysterical safety issues. We don’t live in the 1980s anymore.
And Joe MacDonald & Kevin Reynolds(and Shelley) have resigned from the ALP, as well as Dean Migell.
No, Rudd opposes selling uranium to countries that aren’t signatories to the nuclear non proliferation treaty.
Unlike you, Rudd thinks the more nuclear weapons their are in the world, the less safe we all are.
Gee, William.
I had typed a considered response about interest rates and caps, to a question on the previous thread, ‘A Classic from the Vaults’
As at, ‘SEIV XI 1298
Confession of ignorance, but I’d never heard of that cap till the 7.30 report tonight, is it too technical to be an electoral issue’?
Submitted. Closed thread. My post, lost.
And it is a very interesting moment in time. Interest rate and home ownership wise.
Grouching.
SEIV, I will retype and try again when your name comes up. Diogenes’ parents will most likely know the scenario, too.
This looks like a modest 3% or so swing. This is not consistent with other polls and the samples size is not quite what it needs to be. Hard to divine anything from this. I sure wish Nicole wins – she’s giving it a good shake.
Boothby seat
2:1 split to Labor (according to usual projections I thought) of “others” prefs drags it to 50/50 by my calcs. Please explain (said in a non-whiney voice). Down but not out if that’s the right read?
I don’t know about ’tiser polls but I asume from what you say M. Clarence that they are sh%t. Thus, despair is not an option. She’ll win.
# 31 Generic Person Says: November 21st, 2007 at 1:23 am
We still have the storage problem for nuclear waste… just like we did in the 80’s.
Frank, the ideological blinkers prevent certain apparatchiks from seeing reality.
Happily, they’re the same blinkers that prevent them seeing they are too radical for mainstream Australia.
They’ll work that out sometime around 8pm Saturday.
Right on Mad Cow look at Ray Kuzwiel’s sight very informative. Demonstrates that exponential technological growth will rapidly bring renewables onto the market within ten years. He is a serious bloody genius. Bit like Jaques Frensco. Conservatism is dead it just does not have the capacity to deal with accelerated change. Dead mens ideas historicism and backward referral will take a dive. Innovation is the name of the game. Another fella to look at is Jeffery Sachs and the Millennium Project. Evolution is going to demand we keep up or ossify like the Libs. Whole new ball game is on the move and Rudd is absolutely right to bring youth into the political debate. Great move. His Rove performance was amusing and demonstrates that young people don’t care if you are a nerd if you offer innovative ideas and present an honest demeanor.
Quietly confident that at least three seats will move to Labor here in Victoria. Forget all the insiders expect Labor will get no seats nonsense, Labor have been sailing under the radar.
completely agree gary. I’ve been saying it all along… I really think Higgins is in trouble.
I love how the Tiser reports it as “48-52″
The entire media has got used to ALP figures being larger, and therefore listed first.
Before I go to bed I give you this guarantee. After this Saturday no Liberal Leader will ever again mention Nuclear Power Plants and will dump it as a policy along with all of the other old policies Howard has borrowed from the 1950s. Good Night all.
GP, you are a class clown, what is hysterical (a misogynous term, by the way) about saying there are SAFER options than Newkulah? Consider the main thrust of my previous post: waves, baby, waves, no harm, no potential of nasties, just an energy harnessing issue to be sorted out by the boffins. What the fugg could you have against such a proposal? (Unless of course you are a recalcitrant ideologue?)
No 38
We’ve got thousands of hectares of uninhabited desert.
36
NOT SO MAD MAX Says:
November 21st, 2007 at 1:25 am
Boothby seat
2:1 split to Labor (according to usual projections I thought) of “others” prefs drags it to 50/50 by my calcs. Please explain (said in a non-whiney voice). Down but not out if that’s the right read?
sure hope so, nsmm
No 45
I never said renewables were bad. I merely responded to the notion that people must lack a conscience if they support nuclear energy.
46
Generic Person Says:
November 21st, 2007 at 1:30 am
No 38
“…We’ve got thousands of hectares of uninhabited desert…”
……
zzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Rudd is a popularist he does things the polls say but what’s not best for the nation. Howard is a leader who might not always do what’s popular but he’ll do what’s right for Australia.
Lefty E that’s the trouble if those extremists hold the balance of power Rudd’s IR laws will be worse than workchoices because of the Unions support of the Greens.
Alf – Till Death do us Part
“But that’s the trouble we won’t, we’ll never have a proper democracy unless we shoot a few people like ya Russians”
Stephen @40, as I said before, I respect Howard (in the same way one respects Ghengis Kahn) but when I saw him bring out workchoices I thought, “this dude would rather die politically than give up his ideology.” And when I saw him promote nuclear power I thought “uhoh, he’s gone.”
Problem is Howard is sincere about nuclear power, but he’s also a victim of surrounding himself with people who have a vested interest like Ziggy or people who don’t have a scientific mindset or are simply too scared to dissent. Bad move Howard. But, inevitable too.
Same thing happens to big/old companies too.
The Boothby projection of 54/48 in favour of the Libs is in stark contrast to the impressions I’m getting down on the street.
Yeah Pi. Where was Tip the day before yesterday? I’ll tell you where, he was campaigning in Higgins, that’s what he was doing! He would normally be swanning around in other Tory seats, but not this time.
“31
Generic Person Says:
November 21st, 2007 at 1:23 am
No 27
How pompously arrogant SIEV IV. You can’t accept nuclear because you keep referring to hysterical safety issues. We don’t live in the 1980s anymore.”
Hmmm… hysterical safety issues… So what do you think of these comments from tonight’s 7.30 Report. More equivocation, perhaps?
“JOHN HOWARD: Well Kerry, I have never denied my belief that if an economic necessity brings nuclear power on to the table, never denied that, and it should happen, and I’ve also never walked away from saying that wherever nuclear power stations might, in the future, be built would be subject to three things environmental considerations, safety considerations and binding local plebiscites.”
When you wake up tomorrow it will be three more sleeps until the rodent gang are gone forever.
Think about that! All the frantic cheerleading and total cr@p spouted by Robb and the Limited News Corporation won’t change it. Boothby will go to that nice Ms Cornes. Julia will be deputy PM and Nicola will be Minister for Health. Howard will be working on his reading (Guy Rundle thinks he’s lined up the collected works of Tom Clancy, but I think that’s too literary for the rat).
Black out starts tomorow night if my memory serves me well. That’s another nice thought.
The Possum has proposed that the faeces will start to fly in earnest from now on. But don’t panic, it won’t work at all, at all. Just look at the regressions on those polls. Pure magic. Like Jimmy Bartel carving up the midfield, and Gazza shrugging off four tackles to deliver a pinpoint pass to Mooney.
Just keep the lid on!
# 46 Generic Person Says: November 21st, 2007 at 1:30 am
Dump nuclear waste in the desert… good solution. Over which particular basin do you think would make the best site?
On Rudd and contradictions:
http://www.brookesnews.com/062011rudd.html
Nicole’s first interview was embarassing – she wasn’t coached and prepared properly enough for that first press conference and that’s the party’s fault really. So she started off with negative press. I gather the Advertiser gave her a hard time as well.
With a better and more competent start she might be in front by now. But is still in with a real chance as some of those negative impressions wear off.
48 GP, My post was about economically possible alternatives in the energy sector. It’s not a simple moral question; TISM! It strikes me you wriggle like a worm every time you get a serious question put to you on this blog, you regularly fail to answer serious questions, and you are very very unimpressive, go to bed.
About Nicole.
I mentioned, in the hallucination of the previous thread, that Nicole was doing okay.
The Advertiser hates her, Matt especially, if not Dave, hates her. Might mention I heard Matt (Abraham) praising Coverington has a first class journalist.
She was on the 7.30 Report Monday night. Looked and sounded good.
Southcott is a complete time server. Just about all I have ever had from him are hugely expensive Gallipoli, tap into JWH, self serving sentimental pamphlets. Have kept them, for future reference.
Despite Nicole’s crap start, she has recovered. Testament to her.
Coach is probably good.
50
Glen Says:
November 21st, 2007 at 1:32 am
“…. Howard is a leader who might not always do what’s popular but he’ll do what’s right for Australia…”
….
Yet another worthy-sounding but empty cliche- talk about banging on an empty pot. Howard has only ever done what has best served his numerous ideological fixations.
# 57 Generic Person Says: November 21st, 2007 at 1:36 am
Quoted from their front page…
… or my favourite…
Nice sources mate. Thanks, but I prefer my publications with a little less hate.
GP @57, Ah.. so KR is anti capitalist! I knew it!
supercilious twaddle
CW @ 60, I’m with ya. I think she’s done well for a first-timer and hope the poll is not quite right.
“57
Generic Person Says:
November 21st, 2007 at 1:36 am
On Rudd and contradictions:
http://www.brookesnews.com/062011rudd.html”
Your mother should have told you to stay away from boys like this. Next thing you’ll be claiming the Freemasons run the world, and that the Queen is a drug pusher on behalf of the World Wildlife Fund.
Just had a look at the Oz and the story about the 13 ‘ineligible’ candidates now seems to have a new headline and is not on the front page of the site – had to go digging for it. New headline is about Libs being desperate … that’s nice.
One last thing about Nukes .
There has been no mention of compensation for the householders whose house values will plumment when a Nuke is sited in their area.
Which is why we need to be told where the sites are going to be before th election.
As for this poll,as was pointed out what is the story with the other 27% in the poll, they can’t all be minor parties, a lot of undecideds.
Missed the jumbo thread, just a quick de-brief before punching out a few zzzzzzzs.
-Red Kez delivered his coup de grace with aplomb to a focused, a very focused, indeed, an inordinately focused El Rodente.
-Admiral Andrew Robb self-swiftboated The Rat Navy.
- Barnyard Joyce on LL delivered a stunning dissertation on why psephology is junk science, but phone-in and online polls rule OK.
-Nobody in Team Ruddster screwed up.
-Still can’t believe the Degree of Focus that El Rodente achieved whilst dicharging his duties on this day.
P.S. Good to see you back, Footsie.
GP@57…
With writers like Selwyn Duke, (proposes a complete moratorium on immigration) I’m not sure people should be surprised at your ideology.
Good sources mate. It kind of shows what kind of person we’re dealing with here.
Pi
What is the basis for your confidence in Higgins?
Hi to you, too, EC. Had to go bush for a few days and (it being Australia) there wan’t any internet thing. But am trying to make up for it by not sleeping.
Am very happy i got my dough on the ALP and Max before the narrowing (of the odds, that is). I bet it narrows a bit more before Friday.
I would also be happily looking at a 55-45 Newspoll on Friday.
And GP, pardon me William, will you just piss off!
You are not Boothby.
# 71 Gecko Says: November 21st, 2007 at 1:45 am
The change in demographics over the past three years, and the change in home-ownership. Sure there are lots of leafy suburbs… but we also have a lot of areas that are not quite as affluent.
And then there are the teenage kids that have been shafted by AWA’s. This is one of the big movers, IMO.
Crikey Whitey – I did notice the comment about the 13.5% cap (I paid 13.5 on my first house). The argument for abolishing the cap was that you had to satisfy such rigid conditions that very few people cd qualify for a home loan, and those who qualified were mainly people who didn’t need the cap.
Sounds fine, except that the people who promoted lifting the cap were talking about people buying houses on their credit cards (which at that stage were at 22%). The other part of the trade-off, which is rarely discussed, is that it involved lifting the government guarantee for most savings accounts. If you ever want to be deeply scared, read the Wallis Report. I especially like the bit where they argue that it’s essential to the integrity of the system that a major bank should be allowed to collapse and its depositors lose their savings. Gives you some idea of why Wallis was such a raging success at the companies he used to run, where the shareholders lost most of theirs.
No 75
Crikey Whitey, you are simply annoyed that there is diverse opinion. You can’t stand it because it interferes with your sphere of leftist belligerence.
Pi, I agree about the demographics in Higgins.
My main worry is that the state by state polls show Victoria slacking off.
Is that the impression you get?
Now, an absolute classic to go to bed with.
Go Louis.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=6COgkqy1UU8&feature=related
4 more sleeps until Julia as deputy PM
# 81 mad cow Says: November 21st, 2007 at 1:53 am
I don’t get that impression at all.
I liked the bit on 7:30 where Kez asked rattus if, given he was such a fan of floating rates, he didn’t deregulate them when he was Treasurer, and waited for Keating to do it. Rat could only do that ’smile’ thing and suggest we move on to more current events. Then he started talking about Nukes. GOLD! GOLD! GOLD! As Norman May used to say.
Pi @ 76
I’m in Higgins and I’ve been a bit disappointed at the lack of ‘ANYTHING’ in my mailbox from Labor. I get plenty from Costello and had one from the Greens. But nothing from B Norman.
I hope you’re right but because of the lack of effort, I don’t think so.
34 Crikey Whitey, still waiting for your expansion on the caps issue, can’t stay awake much longer, rate of speech slowing, need 150mls of Coonawarra STAT,
Furthermore, GP and other trolls; how nuclear even got into Boothby is beyond me.
Concentrate your nucleous (spelling, word?) know what I mean, I’m sure, free energies on Mayo, why don’t you?
One of his 25 plants.
Because that is exactly what your beloved John Howard wants to gift to Cape Jervois, that beautiful place.
And Dolly doesn’t give a fat rats!
SIEV XI at 90.
Is tomorrow okay? I’ll post on this thread, William permitting. Might have a bit more info by then, rather than hazy recollection.
Go, Coonawarra, Nicole!
It’s also mentioned in this story.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22795651-601,00.html
Sorry to change the subject but:
The Smear is Dead!
Long Live the Backfire.
Just checked the AM editions up on line for Wednesday’s dailies and most are (correctly) reporting that there was no evidence to substantiate the Liberal’s inelligible candidate smear. Some are reporting the Labor supplied evidence that 11 of 12 candidates named (1 not able to be contacted) had resignation letters. Just in case you needed more proof that JWH and co are not libeal with the truth, Andrew Robb has supplied it! here are some headlines:
SMH “Dirty dozen smear”
Age “Candidate claim untrue”
and now the right wing papers that will really hurt:
Australian: Libs flag wentworth legal challenge (refutation in fine print)
Herald Sun “Challenge Backfires on Liberals”
Courier Mail: “Labor Backlash – candidates eligibility defended”
Daily Telegraph: “PM Slam-dunked on leadership plan”
Advertiser: “Labor denies Liberal claims” then calls claim “an embarrassement”
only Perth has: “Court might decide election result”
As for Boothby, maybe after evidence of the smear being false dominates the remaining news coverage, Nicole might still get through.
high fives, socrates
implosion imminent
52-48 is not so bad for Nicole. One thing none of these polls take into account are the ballot order. Being top is worth about 1%. (She isn’t on the top of the ballot, but is higher than Andrew, which in a two horse race – given nobody else has a chance is still worth the same)
So taking this all literally, it looks like 51-49. And the MoE is about 4%.
Andrew is the favorite, but I think this seat could do anything.
95 Crikey Whitey, tomorrow it is, any thread is fine, as I reckon it’s worth a ventilation regardless of topic, soft soaking rain falling in Melbourne’s northern suburbs tonight, I’ll sleep tight tonight, the toad awaits his appointment with the taxidermist, nighty night!
Nicole now at 2.70
heh
Pi, how do you feel about the victorian swing in general?
Jenny 78
Just noticed your post. For sure, it’s about de reg etc. And the everything thereafter.
But I did start going on about Bannon shoring up the over the cap buyers, at the time.
And the so what, really, difference, for home buyers, then and now.
More later.
# 110 mad cow Says: November 21st, 2007 at 2:18 am
Outside of the metro areas, I wouldn’t have a clue, but I just don’t think they’re going to feel the effects of AWA’s and interest rates. I don’t think the nationals have as much to worry about.
Metro areas though…
Pi, its just that the newspoll state by state breakdown has shown a drop off in victoria. Is this real.. or noise?
I figure it’s noise.
SA on the other hand… still not sure about.
When and what is the next poll?
Suffering poll withdrawal, Gecko?
“116
Gecko Says:
November 21st, 2007 at 2:22 am
When and what is the next poll?”
I know where you’re coming from Gecko, trust me, and I often feel the same, but just four days out from the real one, it’s a bloody funny question…
Nerves I guess
poll withdrawal? commitus intrerupus?
We’re only human after all.
Gecko, as a great man once said on these threads, Serenity Now…
Being Tabitha
Nicole is beaut
Nicole is cute
And speaking of the Southcott, Nicole could have mentioned, at any time, but I presume has not, that Graham Cornes served in Vietnam.
bovine
or Tabitha again:
Liberal is old and grumpy
Labor is rumpy-pumpy.
(C’mon, it’s getting late over there, and it’s gone half-three in the afternoon here. I’m tired, for god’s sake)
awww. *nostalgia*
night all. For those that haven’t seen and need a laugh.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fjKBf1N2Wls
New post on Morgan poll.
The Advertiser polls usually are pretty good, and I suspect this is very close to what the true margin will be. Then again I remember a Tiser poll last election that had the Libs winning Adelaide by about 1-2%.
I’ve always thought Boothby would be harder to win than Sturt. If you look back through election results, Sturt has at least had times of being marginal over the last 25 years, whereas Boothby hasn’t even been close. The current margin is the closest it has been since the ALP last won the seat. To pick up another 5.4% all in one hit was always going to be a tough ask regardless of who the candidate is.
I think both parties will be fairly happy with this result. Oviously Southcott will be because based on this he wins the seat, and at least from Labor’s perspective they have gone forwards from the last poll, and are still definately within striking distance.
Flame war between Pi and Generic Person deleted.
Kev, I must reiterate. Previous comments, other threads.
I cannot say that Nicole will get in, however she has done remarkably well.
Against the odds.
I maintain, as I have, that Labor is at fault if it does not gain this seat, for a failure of resource, over many years. Labor did present one only, previous good candidate, Chloe Fox, but it was hard yards for her, against a resourced incumbent.
It is simply not good enough for Labor to do nothing, for what seems like forever, and to hope that jump starting a candidate, a few only months out, from an election, will do it.
Hardly Nicole’s fault.
Relaxed and comfortable, William at 112.
Supporters of the Liberal government shouldn’t despair if Labor win on Saturday. Over the last 11 years they have been conditioned to put economic prosperity above moral or ethical considerations, so on Monday they’ll simply have to go out and find another pimp and become the rent boys and prostitutes that Howard has made them.
Cripes!
Another one.
William, you may keep this to yourself.
Or not.
Highlight Chilli sauce, right click, google.
I did
I agree
How much reliability to put on this Tiser poll is the question. From the same website they ran another story of Nicike’s latest ’stumble’.
According to this, at Brighton Station she cleared a pathway to help a blind man onto a train, but it was the wrong train. Wow! They’re really onto something about her fitness to be an MP!
Toby’s inside Lib polling story sounds just as credible. We’ll just have to wait and see.
Nicole, that is.
Good poll for Nicole. She’s been making up ground during the campaign. She’ll get the donkey vote. Then there’s the MoE, the possible understatement of the youth vote and doubts about how preferences will fall. She was thrown to the wolves but is still very much alive.
Didn’t the Advertiser understate the ALP vote in their final individual seat polling for the last SA state election?
At least according to this poll, Cornes is within striking distance of winning the seat. With all the silly attention she’s gotten during the campaign, I hope she triumphs on Saturday.
I’m pleased with the improvement shown by Nicole 46-54 to 48-52, and is at least heading in the right direction. Is it enough to get her over the line ? Probably not, although she is clearly still in the game. As I’ve mentioned before, green preferences will be the key to Nicole winning, and I feel sure some parts of Boothby will vote heavily green and preference Nicole.
Oh yes, do I win something for predicting the Advertsier would have a poll on Boothby this week ? Probably not … was a dorothy dixer really !
Cornes will not win this seat the libs will safely retain it.
Yet more evidence Labor will not win this seat. Prediction: Liberal retain.
Why is it that Nicole’s primary vote has increased 3% – at the direct expense of Southcott – but the final TPP has only increased 2%?
It this News Ltd fiddling with preference allocations again to make the situation look better for the Coalition than it actually is?
Stick to the fundamental!!
The Government CANNOT win on 41% primary vote. Let me repeat the Government CANNOT win on 41% primary vote. Be it the national vote or in each marginal. On the national, the Government is stuck at 41% for all of 2007. See Possum at:
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/
The best that the Government can do on 41%P is 48% TPP. So if the Govt is at 41% for Boothby, the Labor will win the seat. Period.
I hate to say it Finnigans but the Advertiser does not exclude undecided or no answer respondents from its analysis, which almost all other polls do. Therefore the true liberal vote is probably at least 2 or 3% higher than this poll shows. On these figures you would expect a liberal retain. Nicole would probably have to increase her primary vote by another 2 or 3% to be in with a good chance. Not impossible, but unlikely.
#129, yep. If The Govt Primary is indeed 44-43, then it is competitive, then the TPP is either 50-50 or 51-49 either way.
This is Labor’s most promising bid for Boothby since Tom Sheehy won the seat in 1946. Sheehy, so the legendary Harry Krantz once told me, lived in the street where I live now. An unfavorable redistribution in Boothby prompted him to switch his attentions to the new seat of Kingston in 1949, but he was defeated there by the Liberal ‘Jim’ Handby, a former Glenelg footballer and Military Medal winner. Boothby, a Labor seat in the early days, still includes the blue-ribbon Liberal territory which caused Sheehy to jump ship, but the last redistribution slightly improved Labor’s position. No Labor candidate since Sheehy has had a better two-party preferred vote better than Nicole Cornes.
Can someone who knows more than me about surveying talk about the possibility that survey respondents don’t want to admit to (planning to) vote for Nicole ?
I remember way back in my undergraduate university days about a survey that had more people in the South East of England buying The Times than were sold in the whole of the country; ie, when asked people said, ‘I buy The Times’ – for its positive association. Perhaps people just don’t want to admit they intend to vote for Nicole for the negative association (as promoted by the ‘Tiser and Matt and Dave).
I’ll say it again – she’s a terrific candidate who was poorly schooled by the party.
By the way, my letterbox today contained two letters from my Liberal candidate and a Liberal scare sheet on the dangers of wall-to-wall Labor.
No 133
I would advise you take heed of those dangers.
I think Nicole will surprise all you doubters on Saturday night!
Phil Robins, I think the Liberal Party has sent them out to all houses regardless of which electorate they are in. I’ve seen people in safe Labor elecorates say they have received them.
GP, do you think you will personally be worse off under a Labor government? In what way?
Why would one assume the undecided would go liberal? Wishful thinking perhaps. This seat is not a guaranteed easy retain for the Libs. & the quantity and nature of the mail from the previously totally inactive Lib. candidate proves that even the Lib. Party knows this.
I’m not assuming that the undecideds will necessarily go to the liberals, but if the undecideds are about 8%, which they usually are in the Advertiser polls, its not unreasonable to say that this may easily lead to a 2 or 3% increase in the primary vote for the liberals, and probably for labor as well. This would make the true primary vote something like 44-35%. This is still a bit short of the magic 40% which makes labor very competitive. I need to buy today’s Advertiser to see what the Green’s vote is, as I think it is crucial.
As well as all the blurb from the Liberal Party, I received three begging letters from charities. That’s the quality of my mail these days.
The Finnigans and Phil Robins
I hope you guys are right about Boothby. Labor needs to win that seat to be sure, just in case there are losses in WA.
Kate Ellis for PM, I am still of the opinion that Sturt offers a better chance for Labor, although if Nicole wins, I’ll be delighted.
A good article on Boothby by Peter Brent this morning…
http://www.mumble.com.au/
He raises questions as to whether the preferences have been allocated in a suitable way from this poll.
Matthew – save the $1.10. Greens vote listed at 9% in the Tiser Boothby poll.
Hmmm …. greens at 9%, quite a few people are giving their first preference to greens … Nicole may not be done for yet. If the greens can tick above 10%, she might yet be in business.
Whats the f/first vote Ian ?
Matthew, first preferences as presented in the Tiser:
ALP 32
Libs 41
Dems 1
Grns 9
FF 3
OneNat 0
LDP 1
Ind 1
Inf/None 1
Und 10
They have a gender split – of note – Nicole – men 34%, women 30%; Undecided, Men 7%, women 13%
Oh, and the Greens got 7% in 2004 in Boothby, so 9% is no real surprise.
Haha. The Advertiser. World-renowned as the least accurate polling group in the history of man. There is a considerable swing in Boothby of atleast 5 or 6%. It will go down to a few hundred votes on the night.
Slight correction – that Independent (Ray McGhee) number for the Boothby poll is 2%. Apologies.
Thanks for that Ian. I think if the green vote can be around the 11-12% mark on polling day, Nicole is in with a great chance. Boothby is partly the old democrat heartland, so that’s why the green vote is higher than average here.
Go Nicole! I hope she wins. Andrew Southcott is useless and lazy.
#150, my point exactly.
Andrew Southcott spent three months on a taxpayer funded trip to New York in 04 and it cost $60,000 US! How on earth this has not been raised I dont know…
Yes Al, he is lazy and useless, Cornes will be much better local MP. She will be the talk of the town election night and Sarurday morning I have a great feeling there will be a few red faces amongst her doubters. Shes a tough formiddable woman not the way the media portray her at all. Rare honesty too for a pollie.
Barry @ 153 – I hope you’re telling everyone you know – and a few you don’t.
Go Nicole !
(William – trust you’ll indulge such blatant support as we get within spitting distance of Saturday)
As a Boothby voter, I really hope she gets up too, but many people see her as a trophy wife, not as an independent woman and have already made up their minds about her. Southcott has sent out three letters in three days. He’s getting a bit desperate. Nicole’s junk mail was very well produced, positive, and highlighted her individuality. I’m going to the 891 mornings in the marginals on friday. Anyone else?
Re Boothby, Phil Robins says: “the last redistribution slightly improved Labor’s position.”
I know you Phil and I know you’re a Labor legend and rarely wrong. You are on this one, however.
The last redistribution in SA (2003) gave Boothby 1600 voters from Hindmarsh and 3600 from Adelaide (the small part of the seat that is north of Cross Rd). The AEC calculated that these changes improved the Liberal two-party-preferred vote, though only by 0.02%.
The 1999 redistribution also gave Southcott a small boost of 0.16% thanks to 6700 voters coming from Mayo (in the Happy Valley area).
In 2004, the Lib 2PP in Boothby was 55.37% while the Lib 2PP in all of SA was 54.36%. When Southcott was first elected in 1996, the Lib 2PP in Boothby was 61.60% while the Lib 2PP in all of SA was 57.26%.
While he’s been an MP, Southcott’s gap over the state-wide Liberal 2PP vote has dropped from 4.34% to 1.01%. And, as shown, redistributions have had nothing to do with it.
People may be entitled to ask whether Nicole Cornes should be the Member for Boothby. But they should also ask what they’ve got there now. A half-effective MP (with more than a decade to build his recognition) would not see his numbers dwindle like this. Had Southcott been half-effective, Labor would never have targetted Boothby.
Hi PM aka ALPCG quite right southcott is hopeless, he once famously turned his nose up at Trish Draper as a digrace to the party- what a goose
No chance of attending, Therapy.
Could be fun, though. Especially given that Mattndave have given Nicole such a hard time.
Said, others What has Southcott ever done?
Al in Boothby. Did you deliver?
Is Nicole going to Burnside Town Hall on Friday morning?
Therapy – I can’t make it either – and I hope lots of like-minded folk can, it would be great if there is plenty of support for Nicole in the crowd.
Any strength in the suggestion in this week’s Messenger that Cornes and Handshin were simply to distract Liberal resources from the marginals – and that winning either seat is a bonus ? (ref the Southern Times Messenger – Christian Kerr’s column quoting an un-named Labour MP).
Personal disclosure: Kerr is the reason I don’t subscribe to Crikey.
re me @ 159 – of course I meant Marion Arts and Cultural Centre.
Small Boothby poll conducted by Adelaide university:
http://www.abc.net.au/adelaide/stories/s2099106.htm