Steaming hot off the press: a Roy Morgan phone poll of 435 voters conducted last night (that’s a couple of hours ago at the time of writing), covering the Perth marginals Brand, Cowan, Hasluck, Stirling and Swan. The result of 50.5-49.5 in favour of the Liberals points to a tiny swing in their favour of 0.8 per cent. To allow direct comparison with Morgan’s national poll of marginals on the weekend, a result for Stirling and Hasluck has been hived off from the other three. It shows that the respondents surveyed in these seats generated the overall swing to the Liberals, with the others moving slightly to Labor. For what it’s worth, the Stirling and Hasluck result was replicated in the similarly small sample survey on the weekend.
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Morgan: Liberal swing in Perth marginals
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Sean,
Maybe in 2010. I mean a conditional mandate because it will be a small to smallish number of seats with a relatively low swing required for Rudd to lose.
Basically if Labor governs well they would be right for at least one more term if not they could get booted. in the current climate governing well translates to a conservative, minimalist approach not unlike the State governments.
Secondly if the Liberals hold together they could still be competitive in 2010 if they implode you could have a real Ruddslide in 2010.
Yes Kina,
And Possum was talking about Goldstein,Higgins, Kooyong etc falling, that has been conveniently dropped from the narrative hasnt it?
Vaile is laying the groundwork for an account of the defeat – the unions bankrolled the ALP, we didn’t get enough support from business, etc etc. Even putting on a baseball cap backwards and attempting to make use of a skateboard failed to achieve traction for Vaile (I wonder why?).
They are in diaboilical trouble and they know it, and so do we. Brian Costar’s piece linked from Mumble says it all, and shouldbe compulsory reading for all Poll Bludgers.
Personally, I’m looking forward very much to the night of the long knives which will begin on Saturday at about 1930 Eastern and continue apace for some years.
Does anyone know when the rat and family have to get out of Kirribilli? I presume once he’s officially no longer PM – i.e., at the point of declaration of the polls/return of the writs – a couple of weeks? Or at the point where it’s clear he cannot form government – again, about 1930 Eastern on Saturday?
If Turnbull gets re-elected he will have to spend a fair bit of his own money to rejuvenate the Libs – their state organisations are disastrous and they are already a rabble at the highest levels. As has been noted endlessly, the cabinet and their party rooms are unable to assemble enough intestinal fortitude to attack the rat’s hegemony, even though it’s been obvious for at least a year, and probably longer, that he’d lose them the election. yet another example of the rat’s tactical games dominating the strategic necessities.
did i hear someone say Tampa????
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22796072-601,00.html
Also it would be interesting to know what story Morgan thought would sell more polling for them. Lets take it as a given (like newspoll and galaxy and ACN would) that Swan Cowan Hasluck and Stirling should be polled but what would sound better?
a) the one that didnt include Brand and showed a reasonable swing to ALP
b) the one that added Canning instead and showed a bigger swing to ALP
c) the one that added Kalgorlie instead and showed a bigger swing to Libs
d) the one where they have picked just the right seats that show it as close as possible with the most interesting outcome i.e. the one they used.
My bet is that they actually polled other seats- definately Kalgorlie, but this result was the most interesting.
ESJ, an article in today’s Age said that Rudd was campaigning in Macarthur, held by the Libs by 11%+. Leaders only campaign in seats where they’ve got a chance. We’ll set what happens in Higgins, etc on election night; I expect big swings to Labor, though maybe just short of enough.
154 – no, you didn’t. This, if seized upon, simply shows that the govt’s policies are no longer effective. It also means they’d have to get Andrews front and centre to talk about it – they do NOT want to do that, they want him to stay in the crypt. If they exploit this they’ll just reinforce the desperado image that Robb so succesfully manufactured yesterday.
143 – LETP
I feel ya pain.
Although I tend to worry about pessamisic scenarios. I do know that entertaining such ideas in no way makes them more likely to happen.
In other words, regards of when your a pessamist, or a Ruddslider the real result is coming and my worries don’t budge it one way or the other.
Here endth the Zen moment
Cl. I agree. But do they have any awareness of just how desperate they have become?
138 Lose the election please – sorry LTEP I’m not intending to pick on you but once again I’m not sure where you really stand. This answer has a bit for everyone in it. As I say you are entitled to your opinion but what is it?
It’s interesting how a lot of the media focus is now on the ability of WA to deliver a narrow Coalition victory.
I have thought all year that, speaking in gross generalities, the swinging voters of of WA have been thinking:
“I just don’t get it – why are they so keen on changing federal government over East?? The economy here is booming, we love our AWAs and things have never been better.”
While over East they are thinking:
“I just don’t get it – why are those in wild west so darn happy with this govt. after all of its lies and its taking the electorate for granted?? Interest rates have risen when Howard said they wouldn’t, Costello is a dingbat and WorkChoices is… etc”
If well publicised enough, this could further polarise the two sides of the country. The good thing for Labor is that a few more people (and marginal seats) live on the East side.
Lord D, alternatively it might mean Rudd knows he needs to pick up more seats in NSW to win the election.
ESJ, to be fair to Possum, he was just using modelling which, when applied, suggested that those seats would fall. Of course, it’s not believable, but when you do mathematical modelling you can’t make abitrary adjustments to it based on subjective concepts of what should happen.
Of course you could introduce variables that weight seats depending on whether Labor has ever won them.
Should get a Reuters poll trend today.
Sam K – the media focus is on the west because it’s the only place where a contest seems possible. Media need conflict stories – easy to write, easy to keep rolling. Easy to retail. They can’t run ‘conflict explodes in the Government’ because apart from the odd eruption, they haven’t started brawling openly (yet). But as you have noted, most of the folks that vote live over this way, and what happens in WA is almost certainly irrlevent. Although i happen to think the ALP will hold their own and pick up one.
Like all the other marginal seat polls with small samples, the MoE is too big to be really meaningful.
Hahaha, a lot more than a few!
CL
Max Walsh wrote a good article on the Libs lack of organisation, structure and professionalism earlier in the year. They’ve always been working off a very shallow gene pool. The failure of costello, downer et al to tap the little bast.rd on the shoulder was an indulgence that Labor would never have countenanced.
It goes hand in hand with the lazy, born to rule culture of the libs. Costello wanted to be offered the job on a platter – just as he was handed the economy by Keating. He has spent his whole career aping Keating and its that comparison thats ultimately going to ensure him standing as the ultimate aust political patsy. Keating must be delighted
“And Possum was talking about Goldstein,Higgins, Kooyong etc falling”
No one has ever said Kooyong would fall. In fact, I predict that Petro Georgiou will get a swing to him. He is a Liberal that the doctor’s wives can vote for, and will.
The battle between the Georgiou’s and the Hawk’s in the post-election Liberal Party will be fascinating to watch. These two are as far apart politically as it is possible for people in the same political party to be. Both will claim that the future lies with their path.
IN fact, the trend’s just landed.
ALP 10 points clear of the coalition on the 2PP, a fall of 0.3 percentage points from last trend.
On the primary vote, ALP 46.3 (down 0.4 p/points) to the coalition’s 40 (up 0.7 p/points)
ALP have a new buzz ding ad out about Costello taking over the leadership without having to face the people. It is very effective. I saw it just about 10 minutes ago on Sky, hope it gets more play today before the ad blackout kicks in …..
Spiros I agree. depending on what sort of carnage befalls the front bench, Petro and George B, might suddenly see an opportunity. they just need to keep those pesky hard core hawks from the young libs out.
Good morning all. ESJ can you tell me your thoughts on the outcome of the parties come Saturday. I may not agree to your politics but I respect you enough to ask.
By that I mean what will the tally be?
ESJ,
I know it is fun to construct “what if” scenarios and build up and knock over your straw man arguments, but the reality is that a 7-9% swing will decimate the Libs numbers.
Hanging your hat on an allegedly brilliant marginals campaign by the Libs as the base for some how holding onto enough seats to win is Liberal dreamery.
As for Goldstein, Higgins, Kooyong, they will all come in to play if the swing is above 8%. This is because if the brilliant marginal strategy in the marginals reduces the swing there, it will pop up somewhere else. How else do you get an average?
Gary Bruce, based on the objective evidence (the polls and, to a lesser extent, the betting markets) Labor should win this election reasonably comfortably. That’s my opinion.
However, my gut tells me it’s not over for the Coalition and they could very well scrape back in. I’m sure all the polling will make sense after the election, but to me they send very conflicting messages and demonstrate that there could be some type of flaw in sampling at either the national or seat level.
The trouble for the Libs is that anything labelled “Tampa” is recognised as code for mean and tricky.
Re the refugee boat
Tampa only worked cos we had a standoff, a drama which lasted several days, with accompanying visuals. Without that it wouldn’t have registered on the collective psyche. Unless Howard can dispatch some SES troops with a camera crew and forcibly shove these people back on a boat and push them out to sea, the libs should just go back to their routine stereotyping and harrassment of targeted racial minorities within our borders…
174 Lose the election please – fair enough.
“there could be some type of flaw in sampling at either the national or seat level.”
All four polling companies have a flaw in their methodologies? When their methodologies have worked well in the past elections?
Look at this description of the 1969 election on Wikipedia:
“The ALP went into the election with a small caucus and could have a good hope of gaining seats. Although the narrow election loss was still good news for Labor, as it provided not only more seats but also a strong springboard for the next election, the Liberal Party did remarkably well to stay elected, which was done by a clever campaing depicting Labor as a party dominated and controlled by union bosses.”
My call. Costello will fall in Higgins
!!
Spiros: Ken Harvey is a doctor, so maybe the doctor’s wives will vote for him. But in all seriousness, the mood of in Kooyong is that it won’t fall but there will still be a swing against the government. Under Petro’s watch the seat has been moving closer and closer to being marginal, including last election.
For an experienced politician, John Howard has been pretty amateurish this year.
Last night on the 7.30 report was the first time I’ve seen him try and be smiley in response to tough questioning, rather than resort to his usual grumpiness. It’s a little late to be playing catch up to Rudd on this front.
But gee, his smiles were really forced weren’t they? They were about as convincing as the smile on a surfacing synchronised swimmer after she’s just been submerged upside down for 3 minutes.
Julia Gillard turned up 15 minutes late to a public debate with Peter Costello broadcast by ABC radio at Melbourne’s Federation Square. Her reason was bad traffic – and it was indeed gridlocked out west, across the Westgate.
That aside, the two of them yelled at each other for the remaining 15 minutes. Neither came out of it looking very good. It won’t have much of an impact on the outcome.
Looking again at the 7.30 Report with Howard last night it is crystal clear he had been told – and absolutely believes – that it is all over. Howard’s demeanour, more than any poll, told me that Labor is home, and probably by a significant margin.
Yes Spiros, it’s possible all 4 companies are operating on similar and flawed sampling assumptions.
184 Lose the election please – which have worked in past elections. Very close to the actual result. Histroy tells us they are close to the mark.
For all those interested in the bookies views on WA. Portlandbet, (currently 81-67-2, by the way) has the following 6 seats as the most likely to change hands. Price in brackets is for the incumbent.Hasluck ($2.85), Stirling ($1.75), Canning ($1.43), Hasluck, Forrest, Swan (all $1.38). No Cowan. No Brand.
Sean – indeed. Keating had to get the top job himself, and he did. It was a perfect lesson in how to do it. What he had that Costello totally lacks is guts and something approaching political astuteness. Of course, Keating laid it all out a while ago with his ‘all tip’ comment. He pointed out then that they all end up araldited to the chair. You have to put them to the knife, he said, or you have to let the people it. Clearly Costello is no close student of Keating, and has never heard of Machiavelli let alone von Clausewitz.
I think the Lib organisation has always been second rate, although they usually have more money to buy things the ALP gets for free (people, mostly!). Plus the ALP has the unions as a training ground which the Libs, of course, don’t – one of the reasons they hate unions so vehemently. Anyway, this time around it looks like they didn’t have the money advantage.
Anyway, there’ll be plenty of time for reflection after Saturday. I’m hoping for a few repeats of Billy Snedden’s famous Canberra Airport intevrview with Richard Carlton after he got rolled by Fraser. Billy was quite tired and emotional and spoke a few home truths. What fun looms!
That 730 election was great. Definite change in Howard’s demeanor from almost all year, as you say Ashley, and I got the impression that this was damage minimisation. Someone has obviously told him to be grumpy under no circumstances. But he also seems a little more affable when in studio as opposed to on a link. I thought he came across as well as he has all year for what it is worth, but it is all far too late.
I thought Kerry was great as well, clearly enjoying himself immensely and sending real curlers Howard’s way. Lanced him on the economy in a way that he hasn’t ever, to my memory. And the signoff was great as well. A little mutual admiration underneath the obvious jibe.
LTEP @ 179 – that was almost 40 years ago. I imagine a union scare may have bitten more back then. The problem is now that it’s a scare that doesn’t resonate – who honestly believes that an idiot wearing suspenders (i.e. Macdonald) will grab control of the country? People don’t know who Macdonald is, or who Courtice is, so why would they associate them with Rudd. It’s just silly. I must say I am also in the Labor pessimist boat, but only because I have witnessed defeat so often, not because I’m afraid of some masterful campaign by the Libs focusing on unions.
‘election’ should be ‘interview’. headphones now turned down…
184- Flawed methodology
I have noticed what one of those flaws in sampling may be.
I have been out door knocking a fair bit in new NESB areas of Stirling. Thousands of first time voters from OS. There is certainly no way that these people could paticipate in phone polling due to language barriers.
They will be voting ALP almost to a man by the way and you wont see it coming in the polls.
Flash
I think Howard’s just lost all his confidence. Watching him over the course of the campaign is like watching a balloon slowly deflate. Remember his feisty performance with kerry in the first week of the campaign?
I reckon three things would be especially getting to him (apart from the polls and the possibilty of losing his seat)….His loss of face in the party, the emergent questioning of his economic management credentials, and the trashing of his legacy…
He’s taken one too many blows and he’s really struggling to hold it together. If I didn’t loath him so much I’d feel sorry for him.
AG01
My best guess would be 80 seats
with
NIL WA
SA 3 seats
Vic 1 seat
Tas 2 seats
NT 1 seat
NSW 6 Seats
QLD 5 seats
+3 surprises which could be anywhere – for eg Sturt in SA, Macarthur in NSW etc etc
PS I dont think Rudd is campaigning in Macarthur or places like that because he has got it in the bag, I think he is doing that because he wants some fat on the margin for 2010.
Mind you George Bush kicked back for a victory lap in 2000 and nearly lost whilst Gore campaigned to the death.
Yes Big Blind Dave, there’s certainly a chance Labor could record a vote above what’s being polled, in which case the sampling methodology would need to be looked at again.
I’m not saying anything is likely to diverge from the polling. My opinion is it’s most likely going to end up close to the polled results but there may be surprises in the seat-by-seat swings. That’s a big ‘may’. It may all be very ‘boring’.
Yes Bobby Horry, I just found it amazing that for the Libs to win they’ve gone back to tactics used almost 40 years ago. Is there anything new in the Liberals campaigning?
LTEP: I saw that too, it shows the Libs are the party of the past as they only know one policy and to ‘bag the unions’. Since it was way before I was born, I think the union bosses attack was trying to imply to the fact that the unions were still being run by the reds and voting for the ALP was voting for communism.
You can also note that the ALP got 18 seats, 2 more than we need now. Also from what I read the DLP preferences went to the Libs pretty tightly too, but these days The Greens votes got pretty tightly to the ALP.
The quoted TPP there is only an estimate as before the 1983 this wasn’t done. However you will note that the ALP TPP was 50.2%, and had a TPP swing of 7.1%. A swing of 7.1% in this election would put Labor on 54.4% which would be a landslide.
Good points well made Sean. It really must be brutal for Howard to suffer all those indignities you listed when as recently as a year or so ago – remember the hoopla over his 10 year anniversary – he was completely ascendant and people were talking openly of the possibility he could eclipse Menzies’ time in office. It is just extraordinary to consider the trajectory since then especially when, as everyone keeps noting, the economy is in pretty good shape, notwithstanding interest rates. In a way, I still can’t quite process what has happened.
LTEP 184. They got it right last time, and the time before that, and the time before that, and the time before that ….
Brian Costar is predicting 96 seats. The link is at Mumble’s site. His reasoning is impeccable. The polls haven’t moved all year, and the polls get it right. And the coalition’s campaign has been a shambles.
If this election really “could” be on a knife edge, why has Kevin Rudd spent the last week campaigning in seats where Labor needs 10% plus? Do you think, maybe, he’s got enough marginals sewn up, and now he’s going in for the kill to get a 40+ majority?
No probs LTEP. I agree with you mate, it is amazing.
LTEP – Fremantle is also excellent labor territory, sad about the shockers really:
We are the mighty bulldogs
Always fighting on
With victory and flag our goal
With guts and determination
We put the rest to shame
Because our fighting spirit wins the game.
We’re the bulldogs (yes we are)
And we’re the greatest (yes we are)
The mighty red ‘v’ which stands for victory
The rough tough bulldogs (yes we are)
South Fremantle (yes we are)
The southerners for ever more
GG
Thats not what I am saying at all. I just dont think you will see a 8% swing.
Records are made to be broken of course but Id say:
1.Howard has held it reasonably together in the campaign (or at least the Libs have avoided a meltdown)
2. Australians are inherently conservative and adverse to change (hence the LIberal scare campaign) and if anything saves Howard this might
3. Rudd has lifted Labor into a contestable position but the weakness of Labor’s structures, candidates and past history linger in the public mind as a reason to be anxious about Labor.
Labor will win but it wont be a great margin. Having said that the bulk of “commentator” opinion has settled into this position which is a worry – it could mean a sneak Howard win or a blow-out for Labor. But 8% is enormous and no doubt you guys love the idea but not many people out in voter land are prepared to conclusively write off Howard.
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