Steaming hot off the press: a Roy Morgan phone poll of 435 voters conducted last night (that’s a couple of hours ago at the time of writing), covering the Perth marginals Brand, Cowan, Hasluck, Stirling and Swan. The result of 50.5-49.5 in favour of the Liberals points to a tiny swing in their favour of 0.8 per cent. To allow direct comparison with Morgan’s national poll of marginals on the weekend, a result for Stirling and Hasluck has been hived off from the other three. It shows that the respondents surveyed in these seats generated the overall swing to the Liberals, with the others moving slightly to Labor. For what it’s worth, the Stirling and Hasluck result was replicated in the similarly small sample survey on the weekend.
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Morgan: Liberal swing in Perth marginals
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ESJ as conservative as you are so are your estimations. At least your real enough to concede defeat. Thanks
Go Hawkie!
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/bhawkeb-pm-continues-to-misrepresent-truth-he-must-go/2007/11/20/1195321779086.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
Can we have some reality here about the importance of WA
At worst Labor would lose 2 seats
The mere fact Morgan is polling JUST in WA shows Gary Morgan is irrelevant
Clearly the election will be decided in NSW & Q’LD
Morgan’s poll is another red herring
“not many people out in voter land are prepared to conclusively write off Howard.”
75% of the $5 million that centrebet is holding for Labor says that quite a few have.
I think the Labor ads have been good because they have stimulated prevailing perceptions in the community. I don’t believe these anti union ads do that. This “they’re coming back” perception may be held by the ‘rusted ons’ but, hey, they weren’t going to vote Labor anyway.
ESJ 193
Your Victorian scenario is absolutely worst case for the ALP.
LaTrobe is in the bag, and a very strong chance in Corangamite, Deakin and Macmillan and a reasonable chance in McEwen.
Spiros @121
Succinct, elegant and cogent analysis. Mucas Gracias, amigo.
Final days of adverts on tv have been a waste of money because the media remains filled with the FOI WorkChoices X Files. Even Skynews still had the X-Files leading their new bulletins this morning (New Ltd Chief Exec., Hartigan, is rabid about FOI being far worse under Howard than it was even under Joh B-J).
Graham Richardson (Ninemsn interview link given in an earlier post) offers a reliable perspective based on access to internal polling. His take on Robb’s ineligibility nonsense and Team Howard’s other smears is that what we’re watching now are people who really, really hate to lose just behaving like sore losers. It seems that for Richo this week is all part of the fun of watching Team Howard getting flushed.
Spiros, it could mean anything. It could mean they’ve given up on some states where they’re doing badly and realist they need to win seats on higher margins in NSW.
It could mean anything, we won’t know ’til election night.
i’m happy to go with Richo’s prediction. He ain’t called the numbers man for nothin’!
FWIW, I think we’ll see a national 6-7% TPP swing on Saturday. 7-8% is possible but I wouldn’t put money on it.
Wait for the final polls and we will know definitively what the result will be. In 2004 the final polls produced the following primary voting figures,
ACN: LNP 49 LAB 37
MOR: LNP 45.5 LAB 38.5
NP: LNP 45 LAB 39
GAL: LNP 46 LAB 39
If we take the avg of these we get a result that is WITHIN 1% of the actual primary vote for each party.
AVG of Last polls: LNP 46.375 LAB 38.375
Actual Result: LNP 46.7 LAB 37.6
Are we going to get another poll before Friday night?
Brilliant Hawke article tdt
Ashley, we’ll get another round of them, all on Friday.
Watching Howard on the 7.30 Report just confirmed to me that at heart he’s still the little kid who conned his way through a 50’s radio quiz show. He’s got away with the bullshit so often since then that he simply can’t help himself, he really believes that he can obsticate(?) his way out of any argument, employing his usual tactics of interrupting the interviewer, not answering the question and outright lies. Except it’s not working anymore.
Regarding the new tampa. There is no way that the coalition are going to play this card, unless they are totally stupid. To do so would simply further erode the heartland vote that they have been so desperately trying to salvage for the past five weeks. It’s more likely that we’ll get told what a wonderful brave job our navy personel have done. Slightly different from last time.
I hate the term “doctors wives”. It’s just so condescending and so incredibly wrong.
Grumpy Grandpa’s line telling Australia that they essentially are not allowed to change “just for the sake of change” seems to have gone down like the proverbial.
Despite the typically generous coverage given to it by ABC radio today (it’s being reported at the front of news bulletins, told as a bona fide news story, even though it’s just a few words of hollow spin) the response from ABC listeners at least seems to be pretty negative. Trioliberal had a segment on what Grandpa had said, throughout which she kept repeating his line about not risking change for the sake of change.
All she got for her usual pro-government spin was 4 or 5 callers in a row angrily telling her that they resented being told how to vote, and they wanted a change. The nice thing was that some of them honestly sounded like middle-of-the-road swingers who were honestly excited to see the back of Gramps.
Until now, I’ve been a little bit skeptical about all this talk of the “mood for change”. But today, on Sydney radio at least, it was firmly in evidence.
ESJ,
What you seem to be saying is that you don’t accept the numbers as presented in the published polls for most of the year. (55-45 seems to be the convergence).
You would prefer to rely on personal knowledge, historical cliches and a haughty contempt for anything that does not fit your view of the world. This might make you feel comfortable, smug and superior, but the reality is that mainstream Australia is going to do over the Libs with malice.
dembo I agree. I was shocked the first time I heard it being used. It was like popping back to the 1950s.
This might be jumping the gun to post election analysis, and very simplistic, but are we seeing the return of the ‘natural’ ruling party?
In 98 Labor lost with a majority of the 2PP.
In 01 Labor only just lost, but in the shadows of 9/11 this could be seen as inevitable given incumbency and the security lead the tories enjoy in the polls.
In 04 Latham was leading – enough said.
This suggests to me Howard has been on the nose for a long time, and the electorate has just been waiting for a viable alternative. Any thoughts?
202 tdt – Good article from Hawke
Ashley, I think Galaxy will release their final poll Thur night, Morgan will have his final f2f and ph polls Fri arvo, and Newspoll and ACN Fri night.
Labor has campaigned better than in 2004, and doubtless have done well enough.
HOWEVER, it irks me that they have fallen well short of refuting the baseless Liberal propaganda that the government is uniquely responsible for the current state of the economy.
This is merely a great example of the infamous Goebbels proposition that a big lie, repeated sufficiently often, will be believed.
The reality is that the current state of the economyrests on the foundations of the Keating reforms and liberal doses of international good fortune, the likes of which previous ALP goverments never enjoyed. Whitlam copped the international shocks of the oil crisis and stagflation, whilst Hawke/keating had to deal with disastrous terms of trasde and another global recession.
Moreover, there has been glaring deficiencies in the Howard/Costrello economic management.
They have spent far too inadequately on education, training and research.
They have presided over crumbling infrastructure.
Their utter folly in Iraq has raised the price of oil, one of the current inflationary pressures.
Above all, they have done next to nothing on climate change and have wasted elevn years we did not have to waste.
All these things crucially underpin medium to long term sustainable growth, and all have been neglected by this woeful government.
In addition, they have mis-educated the public and hollowed out the tax system in ways in which a Rudd government will find very hard to undo.
Even leaving aside their terrible record on refugees, aboriginies, integrity in government et al, there is plenty just on economic mismanagement for future historians to nominate this as the worst and most disastrous government since Federation.
Yet they are perceived as “Better on the economy”.
It makes me despair.
Latham and Beazley were polled ahead (sometime) and were within “striking distance” when closed to the Election Day. Punters / betting markets however never back them: Latham’s odds were always trailing Howard’s throughout the election campaign and blown-out to $4.6 closed to Election Day.
Now comes Election.2007. Since the past 10 months, Labor always led Howard in betting market.
By now, with 3 days to the election, they say: Coalition $4.8 / Labor $1.25.
I trusted the punters back then and I trust them this time also.
Doctors wives exist. I have met plenty. How much influence they have on an election is debatable
GG,
Well if I am guilty of “haughty contempt” then so is Richo, Dr Adam Carr and a host of other Labor supporters on this site who have tipped Labor to be on 80 seats. I had initially tipped 85 and revised the prediction downward because there hadnt been a meltdown.
You might also look at people like Andrew Landeryou who despite what people may say has excellent Labor right sources in Victoria who tipped no seats in Victoria and an overall loss.
Also as LTEP has said a Labor win is probable but not certain. I think most people back their prejudices and also look to the polls in picking who will win.
What the polls cant pick is that last week firming of voting attitudes and as Latham said the people who now deliberately lie to polls ( I know some people who always say they are a swinging voter who is thinking of changing sides when they are polled). Thats why you cant categorically write off Howard.
I think from memory my view turned in early October to Labor would win so there! The war is over (or about to be over) Greensborough, wash off the facepaint, put down the weapons and enjoy the Second reincarnation of the Whitlam/Goss type Government! Its going to be fun but shortlived fun!
That is a very well written article by Bob Hawke… why can’t I imagine Rudd ever being so eloquent?
My Grandmother is a Doctors Wife. Raving Tory as well.
Is Rudd’s NPC speech to be televised or broadcast? Does anyone know what time it’s on please?
It’s nice to see the Coalition has given up on winning the election. Now they think the best they can do is win 74 seats:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/21/2096466.htm?section=justin
Herald feed from here: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2007/
Starts in 20 minutes.
You can listen to it on NewsRadio.
Or watch it via this link:
http://www.news.com.au/live/popup/
223 Peterg
Relax. Team Labor have in a very disciplined manner stuck to their campaign strategy. Debating on the economy is a no win for Labor, regardless of the truth of the matter. What they have succeeded in doing is neutralising the issue. While many of us would have liked to see different approaches it looks like they’ll win. If so, who are we to question the method?
Cheers guys
Just watching Sky and it will be interesting if Julia’s lateness to the ABC Melb debate makes the nightly news (good vison with her defending herself from host with Costello not smirking but clearly enjoying himself beside her) If it does not make the news spots because of Rudds speech, it will mean luck really is running the ALP’s way the election.
I suspect we’ll know ALP has 80 (and government) by 830pm – and another five will trickle in later on closer results.
so, I’m sticking with 85- 62- 3.
Don’t supposed anyone has been polled in bennelong recently?
It seems like a sure-fire front page story for Friday morning… I was expecting the DT might be doing a Galaxy poll of Bennelong to release the day before the election. A 52-48 result (the equal worst result for Labor so far this year in Bennelong) would be huge news the day before the election wouldn’t it?
I heard Kerry-Anne and Karl on the Today Show this morning saying they didn’t think the PM could possibly lose his seat.
Can’t believe that the top story on The World Today (ABC Local Radio 702 Sydney) is Julia’s lateness to a debate with Costello (”Lateness has become a theme of this campaign”). She was stuck in traffic snarls due to heavy rain.
The issues that count!
The grabs make it sound like a pretty snarky encounter. Meow!
Well, I also know many Doctors, and the majority of them have husbands.
Im more interested in how the Stepford wives of Nth Sydney, Wentworth and Higgins vote.
Or is that an unfair characterisation of our haute bourgeoisie these day?
I think the lesbian Doctor’s wives vote will go to Labor.
I’m still getting used to the idea that the result is likely to be clear by 9pm. Coming from the UK, where the polls didn’t close until 10pm, and all counting was done at a single site in each constituency, it was unusual to have the first constituency declared before midnight, let along the result! There are certainly advantages to the Australian system, but there is a certain ‘hard-core’ feeling when you’re still up at 3am watching the returns…
doctors’
By the way, I’m a doctor’s husband in Higgins – am I an important demographic?
“…we’re watching now are people who really, really hate to lose just behaving like sore losers.”
That’s it. But the concern is that the Libs might think they have nothing to lose now, so will try ANYTHING to steal a win.
Already yesterday we saw them try to pull a stupid stunt by claiming that 13 Labor candidates are ineligible. I suspect that this stunt had been on reserve for Friday, when it would have been harder to have it refuted in time for the election, but they moved it forward to try to knock the WorkChoices secret documents off the front pages.
But I wonder what other cheap, dirty tricks they have on reserve. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if something else comes along in the next couple of days. The thought of losing power for these guys must be very hard, but with nothing left to lose, things can start getting dangerous. Howard is desperate. They are all desperate. And we know that there are no limits to the extent to which Howard will go to retain power.
adiran @ 215 says:
“Watching Howard on the 7.30 Report just confirmed to me that at heart he’s still the little kid who conned his way through a 50’s radio quiz show. He’s got away with the bullshit so often since then that he simply can’t help himself, he really believes that he can obsticate(?) his way out of any argument, employing his usual tactics of interrupting the interviewer, not answering the question and outright lies. Except it’s not working anymore.”
I wondering if anyone else got the feeling that Howard’s “we won’t build nuclear reactors” answer was just another case of Little Johnny being loose with the truth? Cue a re-elected Howard 6 weeks post election announcing a Ron Walker led consortium to build reactors across the country : “I never said reactors wouldn’t be built, I said that a Lib Govt. was committed to changing legislation to allow private enterprise to build them.”
No Dangerous. Husbands have minds of their own.
244
According to the MSM you don’t actually exist. Oops. Puff. Disappears in a puff of statistical smoke.
Here is link to vison of Julia arriving late http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22796165-5012863,00.html
LTEP 247
Ha! Let me introduce you to my wife…
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