Steaming hot off the press: a Roy Morgan phone poll of 435 voters conducted last night (that’s a couple of hours ago at the time of writing), covering the Perth marginals Brand, Cowan, Hasluck, Stirling and Swan. The result of 50.5-49.5 in favour of the Liberals points to a tiny swing in their favour of 0.8 per cent. To allow direct comparison with Morgan’s national poll of marginals on the weekend, a result for Stirling and Hasluck has been hived off from the other three. It shows that the respondents surveyed in these seats generated the overall swing to the Liberals, with the others moving slightly to Labor. For what it’s worth, the Stirling and Hasluck result was replicated in the similarly small sample survey on the weekend.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Morgan: Liberal swing in Perth marginals
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584 Comments
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NB
Howard’s never been as popular as he and his lackeys would have you believe and a review of all his election wins shows that. The fact that he thought he could get workchoices past the electorate is testimony to his hubris, which was really at boiling point a year ago. He was starting to think he was Mr Australia for a while there..
Its like that TS eliot quote that at the end of all our travels we arrive at the beginning and know ourselves. Howard is being reacquainted with his old self, before he got lucky…the idiot boy who just can’t take a trick..It must be very unpleasant.
ESJ-Have to dissapoint you about Landeryou and his ‘excellent labor right sources’ or whatever you called them. You might think that, he might tell you that he has, you can try and discredit people who know, but its all crap. He is well and truly on the nose within the party particularly after his exploits with Solly Lew, the melbourne uni student union, and with the nonsense he made up about state MP Peter Loney (to name but a few things).
You are more desperate to be proved correct than I thought if you are using Landeryou to support your arguments. His con is to give the impression he is still in the know. It still working on the likes of you.
ESJ,
Thank you, I just wanted you to say Labor will win. My next project is for you to say Rudd is a great leader and Labor has superior economic credentials.
As for “chilling” out. Someone else posted this yesterday.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=BKmXSYi49IU
Enjoy!
Press Club Stream http://www.abc.net.au/streaming/networktv.asx
Valie today:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/21/2096694.htm
He says the unions have easily outspent the business community with their advertising campaign against WorkChoices.
“We would have liked to have seen them match the union movement,” he said.
“But I don’t think they were ever going to spend the amount of money that the union movement was prepared to put into this.
“But I still think their advertising campaign as an independent third party has been very, very welcome and it has brought some balance.”
Independent third party….I wonder if that’s doublespeak, or his IQ shining through?
I know we’re Wentworthed-out, but the GG (which hid the Robb Dirty Dozen story on p8 of the print version) gave huge front page prominence to Newhouse’s campaign manager’s opposition to Zionism on her mistaken assumption that Zionism espoused theocracy. Non-story, even in Wentworth.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22795651-601,00.html
702 crossing NOW to NPC for Rudd’s speech (till 1.30)
onimod @ 255 – has Vaille not considered the fact that many businesses don’t support Serfchoices?
For the record so long as none of you silly pessimists end up being right, all this talk of ‘close’ is fantastic for labor, even though an sensible review of the polls screams ‘LANDSLIDE’ this silly narative about close will be great, the trickle back of votes to Howard just wont happen the way it might if everyone thought it was going to be landslide. Any single voter in a marginal or indeed in a second tier seat should know that it will be VERY close and if they don’t vote labor the next three years of Howard got with a pet senate that rolls over like a dog without any spirit will be their fault.
They have lost the lip sync on the NPC telecast. Its unwatchable. Sabotage?
Now they’ve corrected it.
Why didn’t Julia’s minders, when they realised they were running late, just pull the car over over and do the “debate” on the mobile. It’s been done before.
God I love Australia!
The 2nd story on ABC news is about election betting!
ABC coverage of the election campaign is abysmal!
For the real tragics among us:
http://www.aec.gov.au/About_AEC/Media_releases/11_21a.htm
Even more at:
http://www.aec.gov.au/About_AEC/Media_releases/11_21.htm
I couldn’t believe it yesterday when The World Today was interviewing as one of its election experts Michael Sullivan from Sportingbet!
ABC has a mandate to be fair and balanced and the board and management have been appointed to make sure that is so.
Later story on World Today is suggesting Dobell and Lindsay are ALP gains.
It couldn’t happen in Australia… could it?
Meanwhile, can someone tell us how Rudd’s speech is going.
Rudd doing well! He’s actually a good public speaker, although the phrase “Working families” is getting another workout LOL
Regular fare from the press club. Nothing new for the tragics, it will be the Q & A which will be the test of him and also shape how tonight’s 7.30 report will be framed.
Patrick, solid but uninspiring.
PB @ 268
Determined and feisty.
@ 266 Howard Hater Says:
Probably Sullivan has as good if not better credentials than the dill from Newspoll they interviewed later who stuck to the party line.
You mean the board stacked with far-right wing ideologues? Yeah.
Yesterday the ABC persisted with a headline which suggested the “13 ALP candidates ineligible” story actually had some basis in reality for hours after the (usually lax) commercial media had started calling it as the furphy it is. They have also continually misrepresented stories about government “improvements” in the polls to the extent that only the Australian can compete with them.
I wonder whether Kerry will hammer him on 7.30 report tonight. He really nailed Howard last night… probably thought to himself, this is the last chance I’m gonna get.
LTEP – you should read Rudd in the Monthly from late last year. Don’t worry, the man can write.
The commercial TV stations have done a better job than Aunty this time.
253 GG
Well we will see how “great” a leader Rudd is when he is PM?
As for superior economic credentials, politicians dont run the economy, the economy is something that happens in spite of the best efforts of politicians from both sides.
After the torrent of abuse about Abbott’s arriving late to debate Roxon,
where is the outrage at Gillard’s stuff up.???
Of course you are not hypocrits.
I think that the ABC has been kicked so hard that they have lost sight of what truth and balance are. No doubt they will re-discover how to bite when the ALP is in government, knowing that they are safe.
Wimps.
Seems largely a keeping Howard on the backfoot, rather than an offensive presentation. Entirely understandable as a tactic from here, but we’re getting little that is exciting.
Lots of attacks on the Libs. Better when he gets on to the future. Some good lines when addressing workchoices. These should be the news grabs.
So why do we have to put up with Howard telling us how good an economic manager he is?
Why do we have to put up with Glen repeating Howard’s lines over and over when anyone with any sense realises we live in a market economy.
God I am sick to death of “working families”!
What about the other 50% of society who seemingly doesn’t fit the “working family” definition? And those of us working and paying full tax whilst those struggling families (who chose to have children, of course) get rebates and breaks left right and centre.
Single working people are in some ways the most marginalised, overlooked group in this country. A fair chunk of the billions and billions both sides have been spending like extra pocket money this campaign comes from single people in full time employment – and sweet f.a. of it is getting thrown our way.
I am sick of paying for other people’s lifestyle choices!!
That’s because both the ALP and the Coalition have starved the old girl to point of near extinction.
RX for Aunties health: On Saturday take The Greens HTV and mark both the lower house and senate ballots appropriately.
Actually I’m surprised people gave Abbott a hard time for turning up late to that debate with Roxon. I would have thought it was far more desirable to not hear him talk at all.
I think people gave Abbott a hard time for the absolute stupidity of being late on such a stage when so far behind Jimbo. Gillard being late is not smart, but the stakes for her, on a Faine interview, are much lower. This will not derail the Labor campaign, and frontrunners have more slack.
Mangled his closing, which would have been a good soundbite.
ESJ,
You are a real glass “half empty” type aren’t you.
Tory Crimes @ 252,
His nickname “Slanderyou” is well deserved. I’ve seen stuff he’s written based on “insider information” where I know for a fact that his “inside sources” had absolutely no involvement with the any of the parties concerned for 3+ years, and definitely had no inside knowledge of the events attributed to them.
Slanderyou has about as much credibility as the Robb ineligibility scare campaign.
anyone listen to the world today? just listened to chris uhlman interview bob brown. chris uhlman is a complete toss IMO.
LOL GG,
My associates describe me as having a happy warrior disposition actually.
ShowsOn
I dont know I dont speak for the Liberal and Labor party. Basically the only influence govnerment can have on the economy is a negative one. I think politicians like to pretend they have an impact but it just isnt so.
Yeah surely we are talking priorities and on the one hand we have the key televised national televised debate that no-one except us freaks cared about, on the other hand you have a local radio debate that only us freaks living in that geographic area care about … both silly … different degrees of silly.
Committing to press conferences after each cabinet meeting.
Jim @ 279, well, fairly obviously Jim, there’s an aura of arrogance about arranging to be in one city for a press conference about an hour before you’re supposed to be in another to address a live and tv audience, effectively thumbing your nose at them. Unforeseeable road conditions are just that – unforeseeable.
“I have a plan for Australia’s future. Mr Howard has a plan for retirement.” Sums up Kevin’s speech.
forgot to add the claims Slanderyou made in this case were so off the mark it was laughable.
Derail the campaign? What the hell are you people talking about. In the final days of a campaign there are so many people shouting and screaming for attention that issues like Gillard being 15 mins late to a debate will struggle to get any decent air – much like we saw with the Liberals rubbish on eligibility yesterday.
I think governments CAN have a positive impact, but that is different to saying they “control” or “manage” the economy.
Hawke / Keating got rid of the leavers, there’s nothing left to control.
What were the claims Bakunin that Landeryou made?
GG I understand youve been a participant in his site?
Committing to press conferences after each cabinet meeting.
Rudd did? Fantastic if so, the politicians have been able to stage manage things for far too long in this country.
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