Steaming hot off the press: a Roy Morgan phone poll of 435 voters conducted last night (that’s a couple of hours ago at the time of writing), covering the Perth marginals Brand, Cowan, Hasluck, Stirling and Swan. The result of 50.5-49.5 in favour of the Liberals points to a tiny swing in their favour of 0.8 per cent. To allow direct comparison with Morgan’s national poll of marginals on the weekend, a result for Stirling and Hasluck has been hived off from the other three. It shows that the respondents surveyed in these seats generated the overall swing to the Liberals, with the others moving slightly to Labor. For what it’s worth, the Stirling and Hasluck result was replicated in the similarly small sample survey on the weekend.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Morgan: Liberal swing in Perth marginals
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584 Comments
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300. Yep, he committed to it based on a question from Jim Middleton.
I just love the way Gillard is able to eye-ball everyone she talks to and debates and in parliament and during confrontation. Just so cool, calm and right at you.
I still remember Howard in Parliament having to look away because he couldn’t take it and Gillard commenting on it.
You can see it in this picture. Julia is turned towards Costello looking right at him, Costello is faced in another direction. One tough girl is Julia.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22796165-5012863,00.html
Well true ShowsOn in the sense that governments can “influence” behaviour by how they apply taxation but really thats a joke too – it just creates a lobbyists picnic.
Progressive taxation for example actually works to create work for the big 4 accounting firms, rich people dont pay 46.5c in the dollar tax, middle class people do
I think it was the fact that he had also insulted Bernie Banton, and then swore at Nicola after being late as well. Julia’s lateness will get her some scrutiny, but she hasn’t had a string of offences in a 24 hour period like Tony did, to really let the media have a field day.
Excellent. Rudd has run with a few “open government”/accountability type policies but there has been precious little detail as to what he will actually do (if anything).
Experience question, took another swipe at Treasurer Howard.
He also committed to getting rid of Conclusive Certificates.
306, that was a top response. It is obviously prepared to counter any such question. That question or anything like it, is now worth nothing.
Compare with Wayne Swan. I don’t think I’ve ever seen him look straight on at my TV screen. You only ever see him side-on. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if the front of his face didn’t exist, like he’s a hologram or something.
The week before an election is a bad time for the side who wins, its usually the time they make the promises they end up regretting.
My point was governments can invest in clean power and water infrastructure, and build ports on a scale that the private sector alone wouldn’t do. Those are the basic things we need to let the private sector grow the economy. That would be real economic management.
That’s why the Liberals made a mistake increasing the gap between the business tax rate, and the top income tax rate. They should be the same.
Clinton Porteous: another Howard Hugger journo!
ESJ @ 310, that sounds like a Chinese proverb.
I know. I would have liked to hear more about restoring the Westminster conventions regarding ministerial accountability and things like that, though.
uhlman putting the hard word on bob brown about baseload electricity in 5 years? bob gave him the answer he (toolman) obviously wasn’t interested in solar, geo thermal, and increased efficiency. just a thought i doubt they’d get nuclear or clean coal online with in 5 years.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22796626-29277,00.html
thank christ.
Sure ShowsOn 311,
Makes sense!
Does anyone know what the smallest majority a federal Government has had in their first term?
Is it Whitlam’s 9 seat majority?
438 people over five seats? What’s the MOE there?
As for Stirling, my gut feeling on the street here is that maybe I should think about moving after 12 years… Some of the people I’ve spoken to lately have really disappointed me. One guy says there’s no way he would vote ALP because he doesn’t like Rudd’s chin. A woman I know quite well told me she was worried about a resurgence of Union power, and ran off a list of strikes she remembered; minutes later I heard that exact same list on a Liberal radio ad. A neighbour said he wouldn’t support Rudd because he’s half Chinese. When I pointed out that Rudd *speaks* mandarin, my neighbour said: he’s got slanty eyes too. None of them had heard anything about the Regional Rorts program, and the AWB scandal was a distant, vague memory. I didn’t bother asking them about their views on Hicks, Habib and Haneef.
I live in easy walking distance to shops, cafes, restaurants and public transport. I used to love it here, but it seems suddenly I’m surrounded by the politically illiterate. I still have high hopes for Peter Tinley, who is a genuine local bloke, as well as an accomplished (and decorated) leader. If Keenan scrapes back in by the skin of those ubiquitous teeth, I will be really disappointed, having to live in an Opposition electorate. But I’ll take solace in the bigger picture, and vodka.
The problem with government ShowsOn is that they are generally reluctant to invest in anything which does not have a 1-3 year pay off.
For example in Sydney we could solve many problems with an expansion of our rail system but that could take 10 years to implement – hence it wont be done regardless of party.
Blacklight: does that mean Shanas has to shut up as well?
Rudd “whoever wins on Saturday will win by a nose”
That statement is basically wrong ESJ.
For example if the government of the day was to build a new ore loading facility to increase capacity of the minerals leaving the country, wouldn’t that be a positive initiative by that government that has a positive impact for the economy.? It removes supply contraints, creates jobs, increases the balance of trade in our favour, increases tax income, increases profits for the mining companies.
“This election will be closer than a lot of people in this room think.”
316, at the same link I’m pleased to note that amongst the most viewed stories on the website is “Web search smear falls apart” (ie Robb).
Bonge. Are you the Favourite? Civil liberties versus national security.
Kev. Too close to call. Ditched the question “We’ve been supportive” “we don’t know what happened to Haneef, but there should be an enquiry”
Bakunin-AL is truly a waste of space and anyone who gives creedence to his rantings must enjoy being bullsh#tted to imo. just posting about him gives me the creeps so i will desist until someone else puts him forward as a trusted source of information as that other chap did on this thread.
Well sondeo, there is a role for public infrastructure, but I think a sucession of state Labor governments has shown that can just as easily be done by the private sector.
321
unfortunately, no
They were related to his campaign against Evan Thornley, prior to the Vic state elections. The claims were made about one of Thornley’s supposed associates. In this case Landeryou passed off fairy tales as incontrovertible truths. That’s all I’m prepared to say.
I sent an email to them months ago saying that Swan came over much better when he was looking at the camera.
TC – I c u are SL
mentions ‘kids overboard’. wow.
BREAKING NEWS:
Labor moves ahead in Corangamite
ALP 1.80
LIBS 1.90
FLYNN:
NATS 1.57
ALP 2.20
Context?
Brilliant that he mentioned the homeless!
“the disgraceful saga called kids overboard…culture of secrecy…supress workchoices…changing FOI laws…Senate commitee system should have a robust review process”
PETRIE:
LIBS 1.82
ALP 1.90
I appreciate your updates!
Swan and Cowan have been Lib gains for a long time.
So, it’s 18 seats Labor need to win, barring any other losses (and those losses could come).
Looking back to my primary source for election coverage in 04, Dave Murray’s Completely Biased blog lives on in archives – here’s what he had to say on election eve (still hopeful of a Labor win, as was I…):
http://completelybiased.blogspot.com/2004/10/election-2004-day-40-final-roundup.html
And here’s the wrap-up on the morning after:
http://completelybiased.blogspot.com/2004/10/three-ds.html
“I cried. I felt physically ill. Seriously. About three hours in. I feel like a moron saying that, but I did. It was a total feeling of helplessness, finding out that the majority of Australian people are either completely stupid or hold money/themselves as their number one concern. To find out that the majority of people I see in this country – people I see and talk to every day – are perfectly fine with a dishonest government. It felt like a sledgehammer to the face. Do I even know what defines an Australian anymore?”
This was pretty much how I felt too. We had the wine ready, we had arranged a little party. It didn’t last long. We couldn’t put up with Nick Minchin’s gloating.
Which is why this time, though I hope for a Labor win, I’ve got my money on a Liberals victory.
Rudd says it’ll be very close.
Now I *know* he’s spinning
So far today, betting markets are quiet, with slight movement towards Labor.
BetFair has best offers for both parties.
__________Wed.Nov.21 <- Tue.Nov.20
===============================
Lasseters: 1.21/4.5 <- 1.21/4.5
CentreBet: 1.23/4.2 <- 1.21/4.5
PortlandBet: 1.23/4.1 <- 1.23/4.1
SportingBet: 1.22/4.15 <- 1.22/4.15
BetFair: 1.25/4.8 <- 1.26/4.8
SportsBet: 1.22/4.15 <- 1.22/4.15
SportsAcumen: 1.23/4.2 <- 1.24/4.1
IASBet: 1.23/4.25 <- 1.24/4.2
BetStar: 1.23/4.15 <- 1.24/4.1
GlobalSportsBet: 1.22/4.2 <- 1.26/4
RacingOdds: 1.23/4.05 <- 1.23/4.05
BetChoice: 1.22/4.35 <- 1.23/4.25
CanBet: 1.23/4.25 <- 1.24/4.2
VCBet: 1.18/4.5 <- 1.18/4.5
===============================
Average: 1.224/4.275 <- 1.229/4.257
The really question with the whole Wentworth anti-Zion story is who put out the story – answer: Andrew Robb.
Andrew Robb is the Machivella Liberal ring-in from Sydney who landed Goldstein in 2004. Goldstein is supposedly a safe Liberal seat with a large Jewish population. There was a hiccup last month when polling showed that even it was loseable for the Libs.
Methinks this beat-up by Robb is actually aimed at shoring up his support in Goldstein.
So your poor predictive powers is the reason why you think the Coalition is going to win again? Well I can’t argue with that…
A nice big plug for Therese. How can you not like this bloke?
340 Let’s wait and see about swan and Cowan. There are equally good chances the net gain for the Libs in WA will be 1 or none. Has anyone noticed how contradictory and appearently poor the marginal seats polling is? Or am I misreading them?
is the press club inquisition going well? i’m not near a TV.
After the 1913 election, Jo Cook’s newly elected Liberal Government had a majority of 1 in the House.
Very well. Rudd’s handling all the questions with ease, and even showing some charm!
Bringing the cabinet to indigenous communities. Brilliant!
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