Steaming hot off the press: a Roy Morgan phone poll of 435 voters conducted last night (that’s a couple of hours ago at the time of writing), covering the Perth marginals Brand, Cowan, Hasluck, Stirling and Swan. The result of 50.5-49.5 in favour of the Liberals points to a tiny swing in their favour of 0.8 per cent. To allow direct comparison with Morgan’s national poll of marginals on the weekend, a result for Stirling and Hasluck has been hived off from the other three. It shows that the respondents surveyed in these seats generated the overall swing to the Liberals, with the others moving slightly to Labor. For what it’s worth, the Stirling and Hasluck result was replicated in the similarly small sample survey on the weekend.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Morgan: Liberal swing in Perth marginals
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584 Comments
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KT: “So your poor predictive powers is the reason why you think the Coalition is going to win again? Well I can’t argue with that…”
I just don’t want to be heartbroken again. At the least I’ll win some money…
I’ve tried my best to picture a Rudd victory speech – I don’t see it happening. There was widespread hope last time. It turned into the worst Labor result in decades (and I, for one, don’t blame Latho – no-one would have survived the relentless interest rate scare of 04, and had he won he would have been a fine PM, one of the greats).
ESJ @ 328 , so if the government ( state or federal ) approves infrastructure by the “private” sector, it doesn’t has a positive outcome for the economy.?
Sorry but your statement was that governments have mostly a negative impact on the economy and that is incorrect, their decisions have a major impact on the economy, even if the only decision made is an approval of an infrastructure project by the private sector.
If governments have a mainly negative impact on the economy, what the heck is Howard on about when he said he is a great economic mananger. ? By your statement he has mostly a negative impact on it. Then again most would agree with that.
Andrew, I’m going to lose a fair bit of money if Labor loses on the weekend and so will be doubly unhappy.
And I’ll lose money if Howard wins Bennelong too.
I’ve put all my eggs in one basket, but only because I am supremely confident this time (unlike previous elections).
Very good answers. Keeps doing a funny snuffle though.
Andrew, I knew Labor had lost in 2004 within an hour and turned it off. However, this time it’s different. There’s no Latham, Rudd’s been very good, and the polls haven’t been at all volatile. A 54-46 result, which the polls currently project, will be a crushing win, delivering at least mid-80’s seats. The betting market is also now heavily in Labor’s favour. Labor favoured in 80 seats, with expected seat count of 81.44, and national win prob of 0.772. Everything’s on Labor’s side now.
‘Swan and Cowan have been Lib gains for a long time.’
OH PLEASE!!!
They may be gained, just as we may gain Hasluck and Stirling. But to unequivocally back a swing against labor in WA is brave, and in relation to Swan and Cowan lacking much the of support, even assuming you’d jump of a large margin of error single poll and preach it as truth. As some inexplicably do.
Lord D. The result revealed itself painfully quick. Ouch! still hurts thinking about it.
Hopefully it’s the size of Bill Lawry’s
So, maybe it’s time to spread the dirt on Michael Keenan’s family -or is that already widely-known?
Andrew: Last year, anyone who was following the story could tell the result was certain in the days before the poll. This time, it’s probably not “certain”, but at least the data points the other way.
thanks for the updates.
I was wonder, since so many of you talk about the betting market as if it were a poll in itself
what was the market on the friday before 2004 election?
Andrew, if you haven’t seen it before check out the following graph which shows the striking similarities between 1996 and 2007 (except the ALP and LNP positions are reversed). I’m sorry to say, you’re going to be losing some money on the weekend if you have bet on the Libs:
http://www.ozpolitics.info/election2007/pollchart-1996v2007-newspoll-primary.png
ESJ you sound both opinionated enough, and wrong enough, to be an economic policy “adviser”. There aren’t enough hours in the day to point out the errors in everything you say (that) is wrong, but I’ll try these two for now:
ESJ @ 291 :Basically the only influence government can have on the economy is a negative one. I think politicians like to pretend they have an impact but it just isnt so.
Well, maybe partly true of interest rates but what an absurd generalisation. Try telling that to the people of China. Your statement might be true if Liberals are running the economy. I also take it by this you admit the Howard government has not created the prosperity we currently enjoy? Is that what you meant?
ESJ @ 328 Well sondeo, there is a role for public infrastructure, but I think a sucession of state Labor governments has shown that can just as easily be done by the private sector.
More drivel. Have you ever analysed any infrastructure project? Even Adam Smith said that there were some things best done by private enterprise, and some (public goods) best done by the State. Technical advances over time mean that some public functions, if they can be competively delivered, may be transferred to private. But if they are monopolies its a bad idea. So a few high volume toll roads may be possible, but as Queensland showed with the Gateway bridge, it is often cheaper to do it in government. Many areas of infrastructure cannot efficiently be delivered by private means. Take the 8 billion pounds the British government lost privatising railtrack for a classically illustrative disaster. Or consider the $2 billion Kennets privatised rail cost in Victoria. And don’t get me started on port capacity.
IMO your statement is pure ideology, and betrays a superficial knowledge of economics. I wonder if you have ever done detailed quantitative analysis of any industry in your life? You remind me of a lot of policy types I met in Canberra who had what I would call a “soundbite” level of knowledge. Scratch below the surface, and most of these people can’t even explain the theoretical origins of the theories they sprout, never mind quote a relevant example of where they have worked in practice.
Had a joke about pulling things out of your ear.
Swinging seniors?
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Greens-seniors-forming-loose-coalition/2007/11/21/1195321835476.html
Big Blind Dave — I think it closed at around 1.30 for a Liberal win. (ie. an easy win for the Libs was predicted).
William et al. I know you have predicted good things for Mr X but this might hurt him badly.
NICK Xenophon’s running mate at the last state election, Ann Bressington, has launched an extraordinary attack on her political mentor.
Ms Bressington today cast doubt over Mr Xenophon’s ability to represent South Australia in Federal Parliament – even implying he made illegal requests of the State Treasurer Kevin Foley.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22796625-5006301,00.html
Last q answer will be the news grab. “We haven’t just plucked these things out of our…[laughter] ear. I was going to say ear…oh dear.’
HELP:
I know the ABC are streaming their election TV coverage live online, and I figure Sky News will be live on the news lmt sites but does anyone know if channel 9 and 7 are doing the same on ninemsn and yahoo7?
I’m pretty sure im gonna sit on the AEC tallyroom website on saturday come 6pm, with an esky full of expensive beer, plus stream the live TV coverage.
It would be pretty awesome to be able to stream all 4 major coverage outlets and monitor the live tally room results all at once. Kind of like the bad guy in Speed.
I doubt the broadband will hold up, however. Bloody Howard!
Socrates,
Governments hold the ring in the economy through courts and the like thats about it.
Look at the Dalrymple Bay coal loader in Queensland owned by Babcock and Brown.
Yes I agree JWH has very little to do with the modern economy! Basically his contribution has been to keep out of the way of the wealth creators !
Great performance by Rudd. On message, funny in parts, focussed attacks on Howard/Costello, finishes on positives.
What a contrast – relaxed Rudd, then Sky News switches to Costello sounding desperate and hysterical as his chance of becoming P.M. evaporates into thin air.
No, he failed to invest in those few areas where government intervention can help increase the capacity of the economy.
That’s why our economy is now constrained by increasing inflation.
The Exclusive Brethren are now alleging that the Greens endorse bestiality. This is the group that Howard is so keen to work with?
hahahahhaha how phoned in is this Costello speech!?
He’s repeating stuff from March.
Boy oh boy. This Costello speech is drivel. He’s on edge as well. Moving from shouting to depressive monotone to lame jokes.
He’s been going on about gearboxes and engineers for about 3 minutes now. I have NO idea what he is on about.
Socrates @363
Wrote my honours thesis on the role of the state in chinese growth. Got a first!
I’d like to think members of the business community can see through this garbage.
Did they give Cossie a Dorothy Dixer to make him smirk and look like he was intelligent?
http://www.ozforums.com.au/uploads/thumbs/107_bill.jpg
ShowsOn
Yes investing would keep down inflation, “investing” ie taking money away from consumption would be an excellent recipe for a recession in the economy.
You see scratch under the surface and all of you have a little Gosplan in you dont you?
“The Exclusive Brethren are now alleging that the Greens endorse bestiality”
I think they may have misinterpreted the remark ‘The rodent is f*cked”
Hhahahahahh Vaille says people wanted governments out of their lives, so Howard and Costello increased welfare payments by $90 billion.
ESJ
Dalrymple Bay proves my point. A private operator failed to invest until a capacity constraint emerged. They make more money but the industry loses exports and the overall economic outcome for us is a loss. Private is NOT always efficient.
Lots of OECD studies have shown that the most efficient economies do not have the smallest public sector. Both a too large and too small public sector may be detrimental to growth. The whole idea that you can reduce such questions requiring complex analysis in the case of each industry to a single ideological answer, whether it is Reagonics or Communism, is false.
It must be highly stressful running a 10 month election campaign. Makes you wonder how they survive it in the USA.
Vaile is making a great speech as to why we should vote for Rudd…
Vaile getting a rising inflection going. Wow, all sorts of pressure traits are on show today.
We are in a boom! A boom is the time to invest. Increasing inflation means there is too much consumption in the economy, most of it coming straight from credit.
If the government funds ports and clean energy sources then we can export more, and produce more without screwing the environment.
Instead all the government has done is take in a heap of bracket creep, then return half of it each election year. Meanwhile inflation has been going up and up, that’s voodoo economics.
hahahahahaha…The ALP are ‘a bunch of burglers slipping in through the side window to steal the family jewels.’ Priceless.
The End is Nigh
Are you serious? Only the ABC and maybe Ch9 are worth watching the rest are AWFUL, so you only need two tvs.
Also Rudd was very good today at the NPC. Awaiting the O’Brien onslaught tonite. If you think Kerry went Howard, he’s going to be twice as brutal with Rudd.
“Burglars sneaking in the side door – to steal the family jewels” Vaille has lost the plot.
387 Based on introducing horseflu and fire ants during Howard’s watch no doubt.
You can hear the part No show debate here
http://www.abc.net.au/melbourne/mornings/jfmediaondemand.htm
Er, yes, BV @ 381? Who is this? Heffernan?
Wow, Vaille is going for a really sophisticated argument now:
“Vote for the Coalition, else Labor will win.”
386 Kina- I think your point is excellent and often overlooked. To be able to keep going and hold it together when any disaster could happen from any front to derail your whole career must be unbelievably stressful. One sentence can likk you. No matter how much we might hate Howard et al, I cannot fault their ability to handle pressure.
Aha! Funny post from ozforums.com.au
Funniest campaign ever!
Has Vaile mentioned where he was while the AWB was sending money to prop up Saddam, yet?
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