Steaming hot off the press: a Roy Morgan phone poll of 435 voters conducted last night (that’s a couple of hours ago at the time of writing), covering the Perth marginals Brand, Cowan, Hasluck, Stirling and Swan. The result of 50.5-49.5 in favour of the Liberals points to a tiny swing in their favour of 0.8 per cent. To allow direct comparison with Morgan’s national poll of marginals on the weekend, a result for Stirling and Hasluck has been hived off from the other three. It shows that the respondents surveyed in these seats generated the overall swing to the Liberals, with the others moving slightly to Labor. For what it’s worth, the Stirling and Hasluck result was replicated in the similarly small sample survey on the weekend.
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Morgan: Liberal swing in Perth marginals
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584 Comments
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396 – wo! slow down, egghead, I’m not following.
I think Rudd would have done well to mention the tax reforms as a goal in his first year at the NPC. Work Choices repeal and implementation of the New Tax scales for 2008/2009 financial year would have re-enforced that ‘economic conservatism’ or sensibility as i like to call it. Would also cancel out the Coalition’s Labor has no idea argument.
ESJ382
Re Gosplan remark: The idea that anyone who opposes pure free market capitalism is a socialist is absurd. It is the classic NeoCon tactic for those who can’t think up their own ideas: say the world is black and white and if you don’t like my version of white then its black for you. Tripe. There are many different colors of idiot, as the rainbow of Howard’s Cabinet demonstrates.
Ever heard of supply constraints? Howard hasn’t. Start your economic education with Locke and Smith then proceed forward from there. Call again in 3-4 years.
What do you all think about the strange “undecideds” force that keeps getting thrown around? Personally, I think it’s a load of hogwash.
The implication that is being played upon is that the Government (and Opposition for that matter) has a clean slate in the minds of voters who decide their vote in the last few days, or on the day of the election. Whilst it may be true that these people have yet to make up their minds, you need to ask how they will do so. Will it be on the basis of some last-minute press release, or radio or television sound-bite? Not likely.
Undecided voters will weigh up everything that’s been pushed to the back of their minds in the last few months, drawn forth again for the purpose of making a decision. That decision will be made on much the same grounds as the decisions made by the most informed of voters, albeit with a little less detail. These people will try to picture Kevin Rudd, and everything they’ve heard about him, and do the same for John Howard, then decide which image they like better. This is not what some popular commentators would have us believe.
The error lies in the distinction between “undecided” and “uninformed”. I could know an awful lot about the different candidates, but make a point of not making a conclusion before the day of the ballot. Then, I will consider all the evidence and make a decision, and the result will be something along the lines of the polling figures in the six weeks of the election campaign. “Undecided” does not mean “random” or “unpredictable”, or even “different from previous results”. It simply means “yet to make a commitment.” I expect most of the undecided voters’ decisions to be made the same way as those made weeks, or months, ago.
Did anyone notice some journo’s didn’t clap when Rudd finished?
They are so screwed.
Albanese has probably finished analysing the footage by now and has the list in his pocket.
JFC of Grayndler – yes, even we got the big colour reversed Liberal pamphlet.
People don’t need to be waiting with baseball bats for this Government – they are being laughed out of office.
WE’RE WAITING WITH WHOOPIE CUSHIONS!!!
Big Blind Dave @ 361,
‘I was wonder, since so many of you talk about the betting market as if it were a poll in itself. what was the market on the friday before 2004 election?”
Betting Markets have been proven correct EVERY SINGLE election! (federal election result overall. I haven’t watched individual seat betting)
On the night before election day 2004, Latham / Howard odds were $4.6 / $1.16 at SportingBet.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/forget-polling-voters-just-ask-the-punters/2007/02/08/1170524230954.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
“…Betting markets never predicted Latham would win the 2004 election. At the equivalent stage of 2004, at the end of the first parliamentary sitting week in February when Newspoll showed Labor with a six-point lead, Sportingbet was offering $2.90 for a Labor victory on a $1 bet and $1.38 for the Coalition. This implied only a 33 per cent chance of Labor victory. In May 2004, Labor’s odds briefly touched $2 (taking account of the bookies’ profit margin, this implied a 47.5 per cent probability of victory). “This was as short as Labor got,” says Sportingbet’s manager of sports bookmaking, Stuart Springer.
“Then came Latham’s famous “troops home by Christmas” dictum and the money flooded back to the Coalition. By election day, Sportingbet was offering $4.60 for Labor and $1.16 for the Coalition.”
404 – In Grayndler? I haven’t got mine yet…in Erko though. Maybe it’s a bridge too far here.
HAHAHAHAHAHH
Howard just said he thinks a major problem is businesses who can’t get enough staff.
I have a solution to this problem – businesses should offer to PAY PEOPLE MORE MONEY.
That is the EASIEST way to increase the supply of jobs.
This idea that there aren’t enough people to work in retail jobs is a joke.
Grobb is still banging his drum about the ineligibility claims. I guess they will have special material at all electorates on polling day.
I smell a welfare bludger wedge in Howard’s speech.
Yes Will, banners warning people there could be a by-election should they vote Labor. I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest and there’s not much that can be done to stop it.
Also he is demanding a recount in Tasmania.
The press had to inform in that the election is on Saturday.
Socrates,
Are you an academic? You really have no idea then.
Someone like Frank Lowy has impact in the economy or Rupert Murdoch people who take risks and create wealth. Government basically tries to redistribute wealth (badly) and holds the ring for the economy, yes it has a role for maintaining and investing in infrastructure – but lets not overstate that.
Its a fallacy propagated by Howard that Governments do more than that. This line about failing to stop inflation is baloney too – we always get inflation when there is a resources boom (and oil is $100 barrel) weve actually done very well to keep inflation so low.
A lot of government investment is really wasted money, I reallly hope with Labor its not code for Medicare Gold type “investment” ie excuses for massive CES style bureacracies to come back to fund left wing dreams.
Nice light article on Crikey:
http://www.crikey.com.au/Election-2007/20071121-The-highs-and-lows-of-Election-07.html
Particularly like the Ruddock line. Speaking of which, where the hell is he?
Its to late for any wedges now to work either way. No movement beyond .5% I would think is possible in a couple of days.
I don’t think the Attorney-General ever has much of a role in the campaign. The role of A-G, traditionally, has meant to be a less political one. Yes, I know.
I haven’t seen a sign of Ruddock in Berowra. The last I heard, he was apparently visiting a mosque in Parramatta two weeks ago. Nobody is campaigning in the suburbs of Thornleigh, Pennant Hills, Normanhurst and Hornsby. If you didn’t watch TV, read newspapers or listen to radio, you wouldn’t know an election is on.
Count Ruddockular only comes out at night
Has anyone mentioned this earlier?
Today’s Courier Mail says Labor is confident about winning Ryan, and also they’re making encouraging noises about Dawson.
Any evidence to back this up?
413 ESJ,
Bollocks – we already have a bloated CES style bureaucracy created to deliver middle class pork. In fact, we have the fattest public service ever.
The ALP will be no worse than the current mob at creating public service jobs – and may be better at allocating them to things that actually do benefit the eceonomy.
Howard still banging on about only the economy and IR only. Just firewalling.
HA HA BV: you’ve used that line before on the other board LOL
Phil looks very ill, I think the blood was drained out of him years ago when he sold his soul to the right wing nuts of the Liberal Party.
Isn’t it interesting how a Morgan poll showing a “close result” in WA gets attention in papers on the net but under normal circumstances they don’t rate a mention?
There’s been no Rudd stuff-up in this last critical week. In fact, he’s had a good week. Tonight’s TV and tomorrows papers will be positive to neutral. Its the Govt that’s been on the defensive on workchoices. Rudd’s Bernie Banton answer today will get a play – which feeds into workchoices. And WC is THE reason why Howard is stuffed. All the other stories are just puff, with no electoral impact. There will be no change from the 54/55 TPP between now and 6pm Saturday.
HH, not my line – some very clever person here coined it to my knowledge. So funny.
Do you remember back in (2001 I presume) when Ruddockular’s daughter went on television saying she disowned him and wouldn’t speak with him because of his treatment of refugees? How can he sleep at night? Well, sleep at day?
ESJ says:
The turnkeys on D Division at Pentridge would say that wouldn’t they?
Good article on the death of the Democrats:
http://www.crikey.com.au/Election-2007/20071121-Alas-poor-Australian-Democrats-we-knew-them-well.html
BV: I don’t know how Ruddock has the nerve to keep wearing that amnesty international badge – insulting!
If Labor ever won Berowra, I’d run naked through Ruddock Park.
What was the question about Bernie, and for that matter Rudd’s response?
Classic Keating animation by Peter Nicholsan
http://www.news.com.au/cartoons/
Will – question was along the lines of ‘give us a defence of unions’. Talked about their social impact and mentioned the Bernie case in his answer.
Here is the Courious Snail article on Ryan etc
CALL it overconfidence, or call it being realistic. However you paint it, Labor considers itself the favourite this weekend in a string of not-so-marginal Coalition-held electorates – including the blue-ribbon Liberal seat of Ryan in Brisbane’s west and the Mackay-based Dawson, in Nationals heartland.
Leaked Labor research suggests controversy over the Coalition’s proposed $2.3 million bypass of the traffic-plagued Ipswich Motorway has it set it up to take Ryan, a seat which has only been held by the ALP for eight months since its creation in 1949.
In Dawson, the onslaught of high-profile Labor figures to have campaigned there betrays the party’s confidence of beating incumbent De-Anne Kelly – a similarly impossible thought for the Opposition just months ago.
The leaked research report into Ryan, prepared for Labor’s national secretary Tim Gartrell, shows voters there are furious over the Coalition’s decision to build a four-bridge bypass across the Brisbane River and through the long-time Liberal stronghold. The bypass would run through Priors Pocket and Moggill.
Aware of the likely backlash, sitting MP Michael Johnson – who enjoys a 10.4 per cent margin – had pleaded for only two bridge crossings. His pleas were ignored by Cabinet.
The two-page report, based on a several focus groups and seat surveys, shows only 14 per cent of Ryan voters support the bypass, while 68 per cent are opposed.
Labor’s two-party-preferred vote in Ryan has now risen to 52 per cent – representing a 12-point swing.
“In open-ended responses (the Goodna bypass) is cited as the main local issue of importance,” the report said. “In reasons given for vote-switching, it rates along with opposition to WorkChoices and Kevin Rudd’s leadership qualities as strong reasons.”
Despite pumping almost $4 billion into fixing the Ipswich Motorway, the Coalition is in danger of losing a swag of seats along its route, including Moreton and Blair.
Labor is opposed to the bypass and supports a widening of the existing motorway.
Mr Johnson said he had always treated his seat as marginal since defeating Labor incumbent Leonie Short in the November 2001 election. Ms Short had won the March 2001 by-election sparked by John Moore’s retirement after he was punted from Cabinet.
Meanwhile in Dawson, Labor’s primary industries spokesman Kerry O’Brien yesterday launched his agricultural policy – a visit which followed Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd’s appearance there last Thursday. More senior Labor figures are expected to drop by before polling day.
Mrs Kelly, a popular incumbent for the past decade who holds a 10 per cent margin, faces disgruntled sugar growers still angry about being left out of the free trade deal with the USA, a redistribution, and thousands of new voters drawn to the seat by the mining boom who are affiliated with strong unions.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22794540-952,00.html
Didnt realise Peter Tinley was such a rotund fellow…
http://www.howshouldivote.com.au/CandidateProfile.aspx?id=1711
“I say to the people who think you can change the government without changing the country: you couldn’t be more wrong.” That one will play well John. What an idiot.
Anyone have any thoughts about undecided voters? (Refer to my post at 403)
427 ShowsOn – I know you didnt use the line but Hamlet never said “Alas poor Yorick, I knew him well.” The line was “Alas poor Yorick, I knew him Horatio.”
Thanks Pancho. Speaking of Bernie, he is gravely ill and in hospital at the moment. I do hope he makes it through to at least Sunday.
shows on. it will be sad to see them go.
ESJ,
As you can see from Bukinin and TC, opinions about Andrew Landeryou are quite polarised.
I find his blog a cross between The New Yorker , Mad Magazine and the old style pamphleteers. The delicious thing is you never quite know which style is playing on any particular day.
He is quite passionate about the causes he supports and scathing of lefties, political correctness and the Greens. I agree his proximity to the truth, at times, is sometimes mediocre (but no worse than the Australian).
He has also broken some good stories and usually has had excellent insights into the Right wing machinations of the ALP.
His personal style is “robust” and has clearly upset many people with his loving caring and sharing attitude. If you judge a man by the qualities of the enemies he makes, then he is very successful.
There are a number of anti-Landeryou sites in operation that spend an inordinate amount of time providing character references, grooming advice and blowing raspberries. For someone so unimportant, he keeps an army of antagonists very, very busy.
My advice is to visit his site, familiarise yourself with his style, pick the bits you like and leave the rest behind.
No doubt others will disagree with this assessment.
ESJ
Back to work now, but for the record, I am an engineer, don’t work in government, and have never been an academic, not do I plan to become one. So in return, have you ever been a policy advisor? or ever analysed any infrastructure project in detail (demand, costs etc)? Waiting to see which stereotype was accurate…
Daniel B. about the ‘undecided voters’… hmmm… i cant really say at the moment.
(boom! tish!)
#404, yes JFC I noticed. I think during his speech some of the journos had glazed eyes but they should have perked up during question time. Think Rudd performed better then.
Daniel B @ 435 – I thin the consensus is they generally end up breaking the same way as the wider voting public.
I’m no expert on these things though.
Don’t be fooled by the polls folks, this election is close, very close…only three days away in fact!
@ 310 Edward StJohn Says:
Do you mean the “non-core” or the “never ever” ones?
For tragics poring over the entrails of polls out west – a close look at the betting markets suggest that punters are currently giving little regard to the chances of the ALP losing either Cowan or Swan and are nearly as upportive of the chances of the ALP winning Hasluck while Sirling is out of range.
The seat by seat betting will be an interesting test of the reliability of the betting markets
# 361 Big Blind Dave Says: November 21st, 2007 at 1:37 pm
http://completelybiased.blogspot.com/2004/10/election-2004-day-40-final-roundup.html
I think the great majority have made a decision. They only have to follow through with it. The polls are only about intentions.
The fun part for those of us here that are interested in such things will be matching the stats of the pollsters to the actual election result.
Possums analysis will be essential reading. !
374 “The Exclusive Brethren are now alleging that the Greens endorse bestiality”
I must point that out to my widowed grand-mother, since it seems to give the lie to her belief that the Greens want to murder her poor old moggie.
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