Not sure where he heard this, but the more than reliable Possum Comitatus hears tomorrow’s ACNielsen will show 55-45.
UPDATE: Now the Channel Seven News tells us it’s 57-43. Either ACNielsen or Galaxy are going to look at bit silly come Sunday.
| TWO-PARTY | PRIMARY | ||||
| ALP | LNP | ALP | LNP | ||
|
Nov 23
|
57 | 43 | ? | ? | |
|
Nov 16
|
54 | 46 | 47 | 43 | |
|
Nov 2
|
55 | 45 | 48 | 41 | |
|
Oct 19
|
54 | 46 | 48 | 42 | |
|
Oct 6
|
56 | 44 | 47 | 40 | |
|
Sep 8
|
57 | 43 | 49 | 39 | |
|
Aug 11
|
55 | 45 | 46 | 41 | |
|
Jul 14
|
58 | 42 | 49 | 39 | |
|
Jun 16
|
57 | 43 | 48 | 39 | |
|
May 19
|
58 | 42 | 48 | 39 | |
|
April 21
|
58 | 42 | 50 | 37 | |
1,408 Comments
All hail King Possum
Much more in line with expected.
Fascinating to see the media spin on all this!
One says 55-45 and the other says 52-48… shows that the polls are so unreliable, really.
Possum knows all.. now chill out my labor voting friends. General Wenck is not going to bust through.
Some polling companies will have some major egg on their faces
Oh please let it be so.
55-45 is a malling… i can relax now…
It will be interesting to see the differences in primaries most of all before we jump to any conclusions
Same as usual…
The leaflet scandal has gotta be worth 1-2 points as well…
Please note that Possums also stated about the Galaxy 52% poll:
“they’ve been the stand up polling comedian all year.”
The average of the last major polls last time was a very accurate predictor of the actual result…
I’ll tell you all who i think will win after I see the Poll AEC are doing on Saturday.
Yes, my prediction from the most consistent and independent pollster.
Jes-a-len-ko
Yo- byo-tay
Not sure whether I posted this earlier but Kellygate reminds me of Ralph Willis releasing the fake Costello letter in ‘96 – something which Keating forever blamed for his defeat (somewhat unfairly)
Just asked Poss to drop by this thread and provide some substantiation – not that I don’t trust him implicitly, just seeking confirmation…
I think we can leave thecoalition optimists and ALP concern trolls in a Galaxy far far away.
This popped up on my iGoogle home page today…
To predict the behaviour of ordinary people in advance, you only have to assume that they will always try to escape a disagreeable situation with the smallest possible expenditure of intelligence.
– Friedrich Nietzsche
I think it sums up the antics in Lindsay today.
And with Nielsen on 55-45 things are humming along nicely for a Labor victory.
Phew- thanks Possum!
remember the difference between recent Galaxy and Newspoll marginal polls. This is no different. A look across all four polls (maybe not Morgan) will be the best guide.
Has Galaxy come up with this 52-48 in their polls in the last, say, 6 months?!?
If this is just another fresh poll (with 1-2k sample size), I wouldn’t take it seriously.
By now pollsters should announce their aggregated poll, weighting over the last few months. That would be more convincing.
Oakes might have a early leak on ACN. He’ll be worth watching anyway
Phew!
52-48 or 50-50 just couldn’t have been right. This is more like it.
Come Sat 57-43 should be the go after Lindsaygate
Being Tabitha.
Possum’s amazing
Possum’s unfailing
Regardless of what the polls say now we know it simply couldn’t be 52/48
The LNP have had the worst campaign possible and Labor has been on song throughout. Galaxy have been low most of the year whilst Newspoll and Nielsen have backed each other reasonably well – and that has been until very recently 54-55, which the Morgan phone poll backs. The lowest it could be right now is 53/47.
If anything Howard’s vote should go backwards and if it gets anyworse 55/45 may well end up the election result.
FFS, 52:48, even if it was true, would get Labor elected comfortablty.
21,
Well worth watching.
I want to see a reprisal of his a.m show 
Only if the swing was uniform though Spiros.
Actually Spiros, that’s not right. It would be exceedingly close at 52:48. Due to the anture of things, Labor needs slightly higher vote than theL/NP jsut to break even.
Glen 57 — Labor would win most of the time with 52 even assuming a non-uniform swing. Although they would miss some low swing seats, they would also pick up some above the average swing.
Well of course it’s always possible the scare campaign finally broke through. It has before.
When the Daily Terror endorses Labor, then you know the game is over for the Govt. So be relax and comfortable, as the man would tell you.
For those who think these national polls are meaningless, lest we forget………Graham Richardson would have access to far more extensive internal Labor Party polling of marginal seats, and Sunday night on Nine he called it 80 seats for Labor.
Richo has been on the money calling the result correctly for 30 years. If anything he would be prone to offer a conservative prediction.
No Glen, you’ve got it completely backwards. If the swing was uniform, then Labor might not get up with 52:48, according to the pendulum.
But the swing will not be uniform. We know that already from the state polling.
Newspoll and ACN release polls regularly election or no election. Galaxy pops its head up 2 months before an election then disappears.
I reckon Briggs reads tea leaves and hopes some sucker believes him. Didn’t work in the Qld election – he reckoned the Nats were a real chance.
52-48 could be right, why do people discount it. Galaxy have no doubt asked a bunch of voters the questions, done the maths and this is thier result. I do not much go for the theory that polling companies much around with results other than the fact the chose to round the numbers instead of giving us a decimal point.
I just think treating all the polls as one sample is far more accurate and history has shown that to be the case. Please use reason and stop sounding like Colingwood supporters who wont see things objectively and in context.
The interpretation of these polls (if true) is simple: 53.5 +/- MOE, which is what many of us have been saying all along.
55\45 would seem to concur with the price being offered by the various betting agencies.
There is no way in the world that the ALP 2pp vote on election night will be anything less than 53 – and that would be their worst result in the current polling and political climate. It’s been locked in too far for too long – and the Libs campaign this last week has been shite. Anything less than 54 on the night would be a turn up.
A poster on Poss’ blog says he got the ACN figure from Radio National. Can anyone confirm this?
Yes Daniel B, I agree. If ACN and Newspoll come in at 53+ then it would be hard to believe that the actual result will be much lower than 53.
Saw the PM on Ten news looked very desperate begging for votes, we are a good government, the case for change has not been made, yet another lie.
People dismiss Galaxy because they’re afraid it could be right. My feeling is it’ll be closer to Galaxy than ACN on the night.
9 News Sydney opening with PamphletGate…
LTEP
You would say that.
I’ll believe the ACN result when I read it in the papers.
After reading Possum’s site, I don’t think he is giving the 55-45 figure from an authoritative source.
Happy to be proved wrong.
forget the polls gentlemen
stick with the punters, they are correct all time time
the they say $1.2x / $4.x
Just keeping some balance. I still think the polls point to a likely ALP victory, but I think it’ll be extremely tight and not even the parties can tell how its going to go.
Galaxy has proved itself as unreliable as dodgy leaflet in a Liberal Party bunker. Remember the Galaxy outlier produced to bolster the PM when he was under threat some months ago: then it was secured by using push polling questions before the poll was taken to produce a better result for the Coalition. Other polls round the time were telling a different story. Was this latest Galaxy Poll preceded by dubious questions?
LTEP 42
Closer to Galaxy than ACN means 53:47, which is a runaway win.
what if acn is worse.. for labor
ACN 57-43
Channel 7
No joke!
Channel 7 just said ACN is 57 to 43 to Labor
keep us up to date on the way the news shows are spinning things
Justin — Paul B on Ten News said ACN was *a lot* better for Labor.
Think about it guys, the latest newspoll was only completed about 72 hours before this one. What do you think has made the big difference?
Have the Libs done anything different other than stuff up in the last 72 hours?
Who knows why they might be clawing back votes. Who knows if they really are.
channel seven says 57-43 for ACN
rofl
Yeah, good one RN
Come on.
Last time Galaxy and Morgan were the most accurate in their final primary vote polls, but Galaxy got the preferences right and Morgan didn’t.
That is hilarious!
Best final polls ever
WTF?
42 Lose the election please Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 6:00 pm
People dismiss Galaxy because they’re afraid it could be right. My feeling is it’ll be closer to Galaxy than ACN on the night.
And you dismiss ACN 55-45 because you are afraid it could be right….sad…very sad..for a Labor supporter…or not?
Hahahhaha.. hilarious.
Mark Reily on 7 has just reported Nielson at 57 – 43
57-43 on 7 news
Mark Riley said
“Labor lead lengthening to 12 points – 57-43, ::pause:: to 14 points rather, 57-43″
He said in just then on Channel 7 Sydney news
Definitely, not joke. It was 7’s political reporter, and he said a 14% difference of 57 to 43 for Labor.
Bewdy!
OK, can anyone confirm 57-43, no sh*t?
Laurie leaked no poll results
…. time to put my 6yo in the shower and get a little work done before next round of news at 7pm 
Also 7 has a former Kelly staffer saying Kelly used bogus pamphlets in 2001.
One of these pollsters could be out of a job after the election…
man … alright, 57/43 …… so it was leaked but not to 9 … thanks
:)
So do we expect one more each of Newspoll and Morgan and that’s it?
If so, the final Newspoll will hopefully tell us what the actual situation is.
If that ACN figure’s for real, I wonder if it overlapped with the start of RaceHateGate?
Get on ALP at 11-1 over 56% TPP at Sportingbet
Obviously, The Daily Tele doesn’t believe their Galaxy poll either—front page editorial tomorrow recommending vote for Labor!
57/43 on Prime News in Canberra.
That’s a 14 point gap.
Absolutely stunning.
This combined with the pamphletgate affair = Liberal annihlation.
over 56%+ doesnt happen in this country- the electoral system is very balanced- major crisis would be needed for that and we dont have one.
Happy to be proven wrong of course.
Headline amended.
Who cares what Galaxy said and who’s afraid. Take a look at the betting markets. The smart money is in and when one side blows out as far as the Coalition have there is no coming back.I would back the money over someones “feelings” anyday.
57/43 I don’t believe it. If it’s true we have won.
Comparing ACN with Galaxy is like comparing a Rolls with a go-cart.
I think we can now be pretty sure that the ALP’s vote is going to be somewhere above 52%. ie. ALP win.
But by how much? Hard to go past a result in the 53-54 range.
The nine news in Sydney led with the Lindsay disgrace. Channel 7 did 2 stories on it. And then followed by revealing The Daily T will devote tomorrow’s front page to endorsing Rudd.
This will be a rout.
i can’t handle this much longer
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=national&national=9.5&nsw=0&vic=0&qld=0&wa=0&sa=0&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1.5
57-43 would be manna from heaven. too good to be true
I’m off to Antony’s calc to punch those numbers in ……
So was the ACN taken before Lindsaygate or after?
I’ll believe it when I see it in the papers though.
Same ACN as June and September. It will lead the SMH and Age. The punters will then follow the herd. We all want to say we voted for the winning team.
there are 2 threads opened at the moment, I don’t wanna miss either of them. But it’s a pain to follow 2 threads at the same time
Calling the pamphlet episode ‘bogan-gate’ makes me cringe, and is part of a twisted Australian class consciousness that has helped keep Howard in power for all these years.
Are the voters of Lindsay just dumb racist bogans, (that should blame themselves for being targetted by the government) or decent people, pissed off at being further manipulated by that same venal government?
I suppose we will find out the percentages of each after saturday.
Wooooooooooooooooooot.
Was AC Neilsen taken half today I wonder, thereby incorporating Lindsaygate?
This is before pamphletgate…lol
aaaa ha, Nostral.
so newspoll?
54.5 ie right in between
hehehehehehe
try this
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=national&national=9.7&nsw=0&vic=0&qld=0&wa=0&sa=0&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1.5
Wilianm says – “Either ACNielsen or Galaxy are going to look at bit silly come Sunday.” Or both William if it is somewhere in the middle.
Lol im just trying to imagine the look of tabithas face right now! lol
57!
Crazy!
Either Galaxy or Nielsen are going to look like the biggest idiots this side of the Lindsay Liberals.
Or, the true fugure might be 54.5:45:5 – which is what the polls have been saying all year, and the tonight’s two polls are either edge of MOE.
Hands up who has got absolutely no work done this afternoon whatsoever?
Imagine after the months of polling consistencey that we end up with 2 or three outliers in the election eve polls- in both directions.
Actually it would not be suprising- as i said before, these polls have always been the least accurate.
if its in the middle of galaxy and ac then newspoll wins
the roller coaster continues… do these pollster deliberately play with our emotions do you think?
Hand raised..
57-43? No way!
Ashley
Work?
Sportingbet is still at $1.22 get on it quick!
57 is what will happen on the day, it’ll only blow out at the last minute, like last election in reverse
I don’t know what everyone is worried about. I’ve said for months that it will be 80 to 85 seats for Labor and I see no reason to change. Stuff Galaxy. How many times have we all said it’s the trends not individual polls that matter.
Is it true as I have heard that Galaxy favours polling heavier samples in marginal seats for their national polls as a way of refining their accuracy for winning party?
Yeah, go you halves Nostra: How’s 54.5?
Talking about heckling of journalists at NPC on PM.
Batfair at $1.25 but falling.
Primary predictions anybody? I’ll go for 48-40.
At the rate of ACN, Howard and his ministers will be rushing to the shredders and readying themselves for the removalist vans on Saturday night.
Galaxy’s method will prove it’s downfall in 48 hours
Morgan starting to look almost credible …
These two polls are absolutely true to form. ACN favours Labor and Galaxy favours the coalition. Of course the problem for the coalition is that neither predicts them winning.
The funny thing is… now we need to wait for Newspoll to get a final fix on where we think things are.
The Australian will be loving the attention if they hold off on releasing it until Saturday. I was rather hoping that Newspoll would screw it up just to make the Oz look bad.
So once again – what polls are left before Saturday?
bull butter
i’m really interested in galaxys primaries now
I’m thinking 89 seats would be a nice round number gain
Heckling at journos: boo-hoo!
Not saying this was appropriate behaviour (it wasn’t) but aren’t the journos precious little darlings! Wouldn’t last five minutes as politicians if that kind of heckling unnerves them.
LTEP at 48
‘Just keeping some balance’.
This is not the ABC.
HOLY CRAP!!!!!!!!!!
Don’t forget that Galaxy poll done for the SBS Insight Program was also a 52-48 one.
I’m sceptical about Galaxy, because I don’t trust David Briggs. He’s made a few too many comments recently that could be interpreted as supporting one side of politics.
If I’m correct, ACN got close to the final election result in their final poll of that campaign.
I’ll got for 53.6% of the vote and 85 seats
@mr0speaker: Out of interest, what makes the Galaxy methodology different, and how is it bad if they got the closest prediction last time? Could it be luck? Or trying to ‘play it safe’?
How stupid do you have to be though?
Who do they think will be making decisions on how to report the last few days of the campaign?
Maybe THOSE EXACT JOURNALISTS?
Another campaign masterstroke.
centrebet still say 1.22/4.35 … wonder how long that will stay before the widening starts?
Iasbet has Labor @ 1.23 and Coalition @ 4.25
Yeah I think so, but I think the same about the Galaxy result. The reality is almost certainly somewhere in between… which means the Libs are screwed.
But we already knew that.
132 Julie
Its pretty wide already as far as two horse races go
Here’s what’ll happen.
Labor will get 54% or 55%.
Newspoll will say they are the best, while Galaxy and ACn will claim they were better with primaries, or say they were right within MOE, or whatever.
Labor will win 95 seats.
On Sunday morning, LTEP will say
“all these results might be overturned by postal and absentee votes and challenges in the court of disputed returns”.
I don’t know why their methodology differs, but they are clearly going against the grain of all other polls, so either they’ve got it miraculously right, or the alternate method mentioned earlier will prove to be flawed.
I’m sure Mr Stirton will have no problem finding another job come Monday…then again, who’d want to hire him?
Herald Sun backs Howard
DESPITE winning the campaign and most political battles this year, Kevin Rudd has failed to mount a convincing case for government. For this, and other crucial reasons, the Herald Sun will tomorrow recommend a vote for John Howard and his successor Peter Costello. Read the full argument in tomorrow’s Herald Sun and then join our online discussion.
comment/ surprise, surprise…. NOT
Hehe Spiros.
Patrick @ 131,
Agree it’s stupid. But MSM journos are truly pathetic if that upset them!
@Julie: Might be a bit of movement tomorrow, but given the mixed poll results that we know of already, I doubt it will be much. Today’s antics combined with the polls could see the ALP tighten up a bit. The LNP may dip below $4 given the large gap – a few punters might want to try their luck on what appears to be a lame horse…
Murdoch has turned big time it would seem.
At last.
Fact: galaxy are push polling with the “how close to unions” question.
I dont know the impact of that, but its whats going on.
Where did they poll???
Batman, Wills, Gorton, Sydney, Hunter, Newcastle WTF????
57 – 43 throughout the campaign the polls have not been that far apart, 53-47 is probably where we are at atm.
57-43 is bull butter just as galaxy would have been bull butter if it was 50-50.
Don’t worry Steven Kaye, you and your bunch of cronies will have lots of time in the dole queue as well.
ANC’s 57 is closer to 54-56 in the final days than Galaxy’s 52 I think
Beautiful one day ruddy beautidul the next. The ‘Kraken Awakes’.
Said this at PS but worth repeating here:
What’s right in the middle of the Galaxy/ACN numbers? 55:45 that’s what
Just like the long-term averages have been telling us, Poss’ earlier prediction of 55.12 still looks right to me. Plus Jackman and others have done alternative pseph and come up with basically the same number of 55. It’s too irresistible to ignore.
Glen:
57/43 is within the margin of error of 55/45 that it’s been all year.
As is 52/48.
Thank you, Herald Sun. Interesting too…what with the Age not backing Krudd, and now the Herald Sun endorsing the Coalition, I think all those reports of Labor not making any headway in Victoria are correct.
As for the Tele, Penberthy’s been against Mr Howard for a long time now. I always thought it was a big mistake appointing the little cretin editor.
Ashley @ 100 -
It’s more tragic than that – I had to go out to a meeting and read PB posts on my phone as I traveled to and from the appointment. Got to see Bob Brown boarding the train at Bondi Junction, though, which was a nice touch. I gather he’s doing his best to get the Greens primary vote up in Wentworth. Saw Lucy Turnbull a bit later, walking out of Malcolm’s office. She didn’t look very happy…
I think they are both wrong in margin and correct in result
‘f’ n Beautiful
yup 57 52
split down the middle 54.5
that will be newspoll
oh and xmas will be renamed rudd-mass
We all know which one is going to look very silly.
Galaxy got lucky last election by favouring the libs all cycle, and then experiencing a real change to the coalition in the last two weeks. They have favoured the libs whenever given the chance.
This time they’re going to look like the push-polling liberal sycophants they are.
ACNielsen in the spirit of the late Bill Collins are “the accurate ones”. Given the debacle that is/has been/was the Liberal campaign who would believe otherwise?
Well at least the Hun is backing Howie, if they went with Rudd i really would be worried lol!
ACN, do not play favourites and are the most consistent, indepedent and professional. They will be the closest to the actual.
144 Lefty E – absolutely true Lefty E because I was polled and when that question came up suggested to them that I thought they were engaging in push polling.
Grover, you win, and I left a little blog for the Sham on GG, (and apologies for the little ‘appalling’ typo):
Dennis, in recognition for all your help throughout this appallyingly inept and mind-numbing Liberal campaign, some of us on the blogosphere have decided to re-name Howard’s last campaign as the “Sham-paign we had to have”!
We toast you with flutes aloft!
(Hey, and cheers to Grover for the winning entry!)
That’d have to be a primary of 50 for the ALP, maybe even 51.
It’s certainly hard to reconcile the Galaxy poll with the events of the campaign.
It will be very interesting to see the primaries/preferences – for example, these figures might reflect a very high or low Greens vote and the corresponding (mis)distribution of preferences.
Anyone know how they each do it?
Sorry about not being able to divulge more info this morning guys. I got called away as soon as I finished the last post.
As you can see the ACN/Galaxy companies have got a lot riding on this. Someone is going to have a lot of egg on their faces as they are poles apart (no pun intended). The role of Morgan is going to be usurped.
Rofl the Hun.
I agree that ACN are the best source, and I think the general idea that the margin will tighten in the final days is misguided… I think the Libs will be lucky to keep the numbers at 54.5 or 55
when will the Australian come out and back Howard?
Yeah, the Herald Sun’s endorsement really helped Kennett in Victoria.
You mean like the actual correct figures, for example?
When haven’t they?
Man Costello is such a turd on ABC radio. I hope he enjoys his time on the opposition benches.
#159 & 168: yes and yes.
163.
Galaxy’s polls can be reconciled to the campaign in that every time the Coalition need some kind of boost, Galaxy publishes a poll
HH writes:
“I’m sceptical about Galaxy, because I don’t trust David Briggs. He’s made a few too many comments recently that could be interpreted as supporting one side of politics.
Likewise HH. Pretty much from the word go, in fact. I don’t think I’ve ever heard him give an interview that could be considered as “balanced”. Galaxy also all too often seem to come up with surprise results that just happen to be “convenient” for their clients. A surprise boost to keep up moral when things aren’t going well, often off a previous slightly low poll to maximise the “gap” movement, and the like. It is all too easy to skew these things a little.
Just talked to my mum (Wide Bay) she was polled by Galaxy on wednesday. Who will you vote for was the 3rd or 4th question (she can’t remember the other questions – she is 78).
So it seem Galaxy are up to their old tricks.
Glen, I’ve got no problem with any of your posts, mate, but there is a Galaxy Poll thread running where you can bask in the warm glow of the narrowing finally having arrived. Why do you want to keep posting on the thread of the poll you think is bull butter?
Lets hope the ‘galaxy is the most accurate’ crap that arose from them arbitrarily (within the moe) falling closest to the actual result in 2004 is finally put to bed. David Brooks strikes me as an air head and they’ve been out on their own all year pushing the bottom end of the Labor vote.
Someone needs to make a list of the endorsements tomorrow.
CAN’T … TEAR … MYSELF … AWAY … … … MUST …. STOP … HITTING … REFRESH …
I love this reasoning – that the incumbent somehow “deserves” to be in government more simply by virtue of their incumbency. Sort of like… it would be a shame to go through all that hassle of changing government just for something a little bit better, so it has to be a convincing case for a change.
How about, put them side by side, pick the better one? Is that too hard?
Hemingway because its a democracy lol!
What more do they need to do??? Offer up Overthetopington as a virginal (pffft) sacrifice?!?!
We have to thank Galaxy for keeping Howard in his job when his party were angling to get rid of him and allow the Australian electorate to do the job.
mr0speaker:
Hey, I’ve got copyright on this name.
The Speaker ™
Costello on PM. Sounds petulant, whiny (even more than usual), nervous laughter (unusual for Peter). Being quizzed about Bogan-gate and tried to bring in Julia Gillard being late for a debate with him. Phew. I’ll give him points for putting his head above the parapet, but jeez…. not a good performance.
Actually the Herald sun backed Labor in the last state election. Did they get that right Steven Kaye. By the way, newspaper endorsements mean nothing to most. Lok what happened in NSW in their last state election.
I don’t know if I really believe 57-43, but I don’t know if I really believe 52/48 either.
Of course, intuition and history would tell you it’ll be closer to 52 than 57. I find it hard to imagine the result is gong to be over 54%, let alone 57.
I think all this business today will act to firm up intentions for Labor so they will do no worse than 52%… but I could be wrong on that too.
First somebody says 50/50. Then Ruawake says menzies. Then its 50/50 again. then its Higgins (you know who you are). Then its 52/46… then its 52/48… Then ACN 55/45… now 57/43.
Am I exhausted? YES
Who cares who the papers endorse? That is such an old fashioned view of what influences voters.
The Speaker.
Note: my name has a 0 in it, which clearly identifies me as a seperate entity, it is also pronounced and spelled differently.
Ladies and Gentlemen I am officially confused
How can in the same period of time galaxy come into 52-48, and ACN go to 57-43?
*Scratches head*
*Befuddled look on face*
Now our Julia on PM. God I love this woman.
I think it’s a little wrong to say Galaxy only got the ‘04 election result right. They also got very close to the Qld and NSW results.
I agree with others who suggest ACNielsen has been a proven performer over many elections. Their trend lines are usualy smooth with few rogue results. Galaxy have been doing some strange things this year and do not fill me with confidence. All polls in 2004 got the primary result about right but differed markedly after the preferences. This is Galaxy’s main claim to fame, one start for one win. At this stage taking into account the betting markets I am inclined to go with the older proven performer ACNielsen.
If the worst the alp can hope for on election day is 52-53% then the coalition is finished.
SirEggo — MOE
Is Newspoll in tomorrows GG?
SirEggo @191, We’ve been saying the same about Morgan v everyone else all year. Morgan may end up being the closest of all …
Glen,
It wasn’t a suggestion that you to go to the other thread, but a non-rhetorical question. If you don’t want to answer it, no worries.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NizKjT8V0uI
buzzz ding Tory style
we believe what we want to believe
labor will win the election but it won’t be 57-43
MOE?
It’s not going to be 57%.
It is going to be 54 -55 %.
And the number of seats held by Labor will start with a 9.
This is what all the objective evidence and all the objective commentators are saying.
This Moe guy sure cops a lot of blame around here.
I hate Moe
I’m declaring it (again tentatively), Galaxy is a PUSH POLL in safe coalition seats
Ashley 196
Yeh, probably right.
The 57-43 probably an outlier.
But still
YOOOOOO BEEEEEEYOOOOOOOTEEEEEEEE
Sorry, couldn’t control myself
37 hours 26 minutes till polls open……
I might have to take back my earlier Myth No 2 (not believing in conspiracy theories about Galaxy) if it’s true they’re doing push polling.
Do we have a confirmed recent case of this, where we’re sure it was for a published poll?
If anyone still has any doubts about 57/43 catch a bit of the replay of the Coconut at the Nat Press Club today. He was dead-set practically crying.
Rodent
Rudd
mr0speaker :
You’ve only been using it for one day, I’ve had mine for years.
poll0bludger ™
The galaxy poll is a doctored report trying to create the impression of momentum for the coalition with a hope of persuading undecideds.
Galaxy play the role of all those dodgy ‘polls’ in american presidential campaigns which try to create the impression of a ‘republican’ winner over a sustained period.
Problem is with pamphletgate and Rupert playing both sides of the fence this election (based on real polls) no real chance for oxygen in a ‘comeback’ argument in this poll, although libs will still try to spin it that way.
Galaxy will do a poll on the morning/day of the election and it wil be around 54/55 ALP thereby covering their behinds, but Galaxy’s role is as always a participant in the process rather than an observer.
Speakers – and don’t try and steal my name either – it took me ages to think of it
Glen,
I have waited 11 long years for this, I am going to enjoy every minute of it between now and end of the evening on Saturday. And every minute of it once Rudd and company are officially in. What goes around comes around and it is now our turn.
The last time I felt this good was on the evening of election returns in 1992 when we chucked out 12 years worth of Republicans for the Democrats in the USA.
I am officially opening the Election night bar tonight
, even if that means I need to go to for restocking it between now and Satuday 
And the Lindsay affair will provide some nice padding of 0.5% or so.
Why can’t it be 57 -43 on the day? Just because it’s never happened doesn’t mean it can’t.
All year it’s been 55 – 45 and as the wheels go cartwheeling off the Liberal campaign bus, some of the passengers are jumping across to the winning side.
Centre,
I thought he was fine at NPC today. Given the circumstances in fact, I thought it was a textbook example of the stoicism that’s got him as far as he has in politics.
I mean, a normal person would’ve rung in sick, I reckon.
Moe has somehow got himself onto all the pollsters phone records, using a large number of false names.
When Galaxy calls him (repeatedly) he puts on a different voice each time, and votes for Howard. Whenever ACN calls him he votes for Rudd.
That’s how the ACN and Galaxy results can be explained by Moe.
Now, here’s a banner I’m loving:
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/
“Time for a Historic Change.
Telegraph Backs Rudd”.
Julie ive suffered defeats from the Libs in Victoria and WA i know what its like to lose and i am not looking forward to losing this one but despite what you might think of JWH Australia is better off than we were in 1996.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oi37C6eHAeg&feature=user
Crap. In the real world, far removed from Stirton’s masturbatory fantasies, the Aussie dollar is dropping, closing at 87c. Is this what happens when a Krudd Government is merely contemplated? Damn.
SBS gave the Kelly Lindsay scandal a good long report.
Also stated ACN 57 to 43. Did not mention Galaxy.
Ashley 217
Moe is worth about 2% in these polls, isn’t he? LOL
I don’t think it counts as trolling if it’s a statement of fact: Steven Kaye, you’re an idiot.
Please keep posting here after Sunday.
Anyone know what quesitons were asked in both polls?
Didn’t someone in a thread yeasterday mention something about a who is closer to unions question?
Dario@205
Try orange juice?
Money moving on Bennalong at Centrebet: 1.63/2.15
thanks for the comedy Steven
we’re comin back! 95 seats for the true economic conservatives
What was the corresponding ACN poll in 2004? Were they out by a long way?
Cry us a river Steven.
Gary Bruce, ACN’s result in ‘04 was 54/46 (Coalition/ALP)
They overestimated the Coalition’s primary vote but got the ALP’s pretty much spot on.
Choose your reality! Nielson or Galaxy. Telegraph or Herald Sun.
whose got the coolade?
#223 –
“I don’t think it counts as trolling if it’s a statement of fact: Steven Kaye, you’re an idiot.”
And you, Patrick Bateman, are loonier than your fictional namesake.
Glen 219 – I don’t agree – although I am sure you can make an argument – it’ll just be based on different values to me.
Despite John Howard saying that Australians are prouder than they were a decade ago, I disagree. I am ashamed of being Australian now and I never was before.
In my view, John Howard has ruined this country and he deserves to lose his seat.
Stephen Kaye 220 – not even worth responding to such ignorance.
Ashley @ 179: rotfl, i’m exactly the same. PB is more addictive than crack cocaine laced with caffeine and chocolate.
204, 205, 217: hahahahahaha
The last ACN before 2004 was 54-46 Libs
The over estimated the Libs by 1.3(?)
That means this could really be 58.3-41.7!
Or not….LOL
If you’ll excuse me, I have some reservations at Dorsia.
Steven,
You left out the earthquakes and plagues of locusts again.
As I’ve said many times now, Galaxy’s reputation will be in tatters come Saturday night. The proof is that their rogue polls always come when the Coalition needs it most.
It’s absolutely shameless, and so foolish making their final poll wrong. No doubt they will use the leaflet-gate scandal to explain the massive to Labor after their poll…
Alright, I’ve gotta head home.
Nobody say anything interesting while I’m away.
Glen @ 200
“http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NizKjT8V0uI
buzzz ding Tory style”
Man that was lame. I thought a teenager made it in his bedroom until I saw it was from LiberalParty07.
A little something from Glen’s Dad. Wait till he gets back from work today to watch the News!
The Oz.
Liberals can learn from Monty Python
FROM THE RIGHT: Ian Smith | November 22, 2007
Always look on the bright side of life.
The polls are terrible, some of our stars are falling (just what has happened to Tony Abbott in this campaign?) and Kevin07 is attracting more fans than Justin Timberlake. But we must take heed of Eric Idle’s immortal song.
Fellow conservatives do not fret. We still have more than 48 hours left.
Although Newspoll shows 54 per cent ALP and 46 per cent Coalition, it is only a flesh wound.
To show the Right likes a challenge, Media Monitors reflects that over the past week Australia has been debating issues that are the domain of others: education and climate change.
Kevin has convinced people that he will be to Australian education what Eli Whitney was to America’s industrial revolution, while Bob Brown has a firmer grip on climate change than Posh has on Becks.
Regarding education, as the ever-insightful Peter Ruehl wrote, all Kevin will do when every kid gets a computer at school is give them the chance to waste as much time surfing the web there as they already do at home.
As for climate change, Bob’s been on about this for years. It still snows in winter and even rained in Melbourne yesterday. Yes, I may have gone to work in Speedos last week because the temperature nudged 50 degrees in Adelaide but really Bob, what are you on about? We can all adapt.
John Howard maintains a cracking pace. People are consistently confounded by the speed of his morning walk.
Senator Simon Birmingham, in his early 30s, says he had to run to keep up with the PM.
Johnny is the man we need to lead this country. Run to the booths behind him on Saturday everyone. You’re not there yet Kevin!
Meanwhile:
Some things in life are bad,
They can really make you mad,
Other things just make you swear and curse,
When you’re chewing on life’s gristle,
Don’t grumble, give a whistle,
And this’ll help things turn out for the best
Ian Smith is executive chairman of media relations group Gavin Anderson (Australia).
Thanks LTEP. – I just don’t believe the conditions have favoured the coalition to the extent where Labor’s vote has gone down and the coalitions has gone up. It just doesn’t ring true.
What happened to Nostro he popped up but now hes gone?
Steven has a point if only this bad economic forecast could have happened a week ago oh well.
And don’t even think about leaking the Newspoll result until I get back.
Kaye you economic fool, a lower dollar enhances our export competitiveness and reduces our trade deficit.
Crikey and Possum and a few other sites had comments on the Galaxy push poll of September (I think it was).
David Briggs of Galaxy does not do his credibility any good when he say “we (Liberals) are still in the race.
Galaxy are a joke, as Possum notes they can round down and allocate preferences as to how they see fit so that a 52-48 can have a mid range of 53.5-46.5 and an upper range of 55-45, but for some reason galaxy takes the lower range of 52-48.
.
.
Finally he’s gone. Now we can talk about Ashley.
I really am about to leave. Just… one… more… refresh.
Now that Ashley’s gone I can leak that Newspoll I’ve been holding onto.
(and before anyone asks or wonders… no)
Wow
Channel 10 Queensland phone poll has Libs getting 60 plus % of the vote, to Labor only 30% something, with only 1% undecided…
8000 people called in
this must be what John has been doing all afternoon up here in Ipswich
this is surely the most authoritative poll of the campaign
Channel 10 newsreader says the voters have clearly decided…
(Paul B is actually a good journo – he must cringe at this kind of rubbish)
just maybe the Libs team are only showing JWH these kind of stories…a bit like Der Fuhrer only getting the battlefront reports showing his army winning….
this keeps him ready to get up in the morning for those ridiculous forced marches the media now expect….
and as for the Lindsay debacle: why has it got so much traction? because it is so true to the nature of howard and his mob….its innately the kind of thing they do…
Dammit Paul K! Now I have no choice but to refresh for another couple of minutes.
I hear he’s a friend of Moe’s.
For crying out loud Ashley bugger off home!!
Glen at 245:
Don’t worry. If by some miracle the Libs get voted back in, you’ll have plenty of bad economic forecasts in the coming years.
Glen, Steven K, and Nostral.
What a boxed trifecta.
Hand out the tissues.
LOL
Steven Kaye,
Oil prices have hit a record high. I guess it’s all Rudd’s fault, what with Labor controlling oil stocks all over the world. Can’t wait to see the price of petrol drop to under 50 cents a litre if Howard gets back in.
252
They got 8000 calls from morons who get all their kicks from Ten’s wonderful programs/
“Comment on ACNielsen: 57-43 by paul k23:46 11/21/2007, paul k, Comments for The Poll Bludger
.
.
Finally he’s gone. Now we can talk about Ashley.”
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!
CRACKED ME UP PK
Stop it!!! I’m leaving.
Odds on Eden-Monaro ALP 1.27 to LIB 3.4
If that’s true, 55-45, that’s WOW.
Cousins on SBS saying he hopes Turnbull gets voted….hahahaha
Living in Lindsay under “Kelly Country” will finally come to an end. Her base is Glenmore Park & they have kept her elected all this time. She saw the writing on the wall & jumped. Her despicable husband, an orthodontist, is a goose. So is Karen Shit-Offs husband. But they have done it before.
Listen to “Labor demands answers over fake pamplets scam” to hear what a goose Jackie Kelly is
http://www.abc.net.au/am/default.htm
57-43?
Has the world gone mad?
out
Is this ACN part of the 90,000 group that they signed up on-line.
If so it may be overstated as people prepared to engage in the type of on-line surveys like ACN are more likely to inform themselves of the issues and choices before they decide.
Geez the Herald Sun has to be the dumbest paper going. There editorial suggests they pretty much think Rudd is better:
“Tomorrow, the Herald Sun will argue that a Labor victory on Saturday may bring many new ideas and a great sense of purpose to government.
We observe, however; ”Many voters will be wondering if what they’ve heard from Mr Rudd over the past six weeks is actually what they’ll get post-election.”
Essentially there editorial is we are endorsing the LIbs because we want Peter Costello as PM – talk about your winning arguements:
“If he wins on Saturday, Mr Howard should begin preparing for a smooth succession – sooner rather than later.”
Am sure that’ll win over those undecideds
giasou Spiro
Even 54-55 is MASSIVE.
Betfair has stabilised for the time being at $1.25 (was $1.24 at one stage today).
So it’s about 54 or 55%. I don’t think either will have egg on their faces for that.
I think it will get closer on election day. The Sri Lanka/Australia game is probably a good analogy, the Coalition will do better than expected at the end, but the result will be the same.
I would have said the election was not in doubt, but still numerically close, due to the “dead space” in seat gains in each state for % swing.
But with the antics in Lindsay? Australians have never cared about corruption unless it affects them, but incompetence? Didn’t the idiots even get the Islamic sayings wrong?
I mean Listen to “Fake pamphlet scam a prank, Kelly says”
http://www.abc.net.au/am/default.htm
Thnking about the lame Lib ads, I think (as someone said awhile ago) that thie one was lost quite early and decided not to ravage their cash reserves.
Kelly came off as puerile on the ABC interview.
“My husband just haaates unionists.. ”
No one’s laughing.
I’d be surprised if the betting markets didn’t move towards the Coalition. With a 52/48 backing you up the odds are too good to miss. I don’t really believe the betting markets are particularly useful but we’ll see.
54-55 is a blowout already, 57 is ‘look ma, no Liberal party’
It’s also just a little bit unbelievable. I can bring myself to 55, and in a very odd occasion 56… but not 57.
Does it really feel like a record election result? If you’re really honest it doesn’t.
The News LTD. polls…Galaxy and Newspoll…have consistently been manipulated for the last few months.
It has been blatantly obvious to any poll watcher.
Galaxy has been used as a Liberal Party booster. fullstop.
Newspoll has been used as a “shaper” of the Liberal Party.The outrageous fluctuations have been used to try and get desired outcomes.
It was clear a month ago that ACN was the only “true” poll going around…and i said so here.
This 57-43 blows me away and my wildest predictions/hopes/belief of 102 seats and the total rejection of Howardism looks a reality.
LTEP,
I can see you’re going to be the life of the party on Saturday night.
Gerr @ 266 -
It’s quite possible that the world is coming to its senses…
paul k… i’m sure I’ll give people someone to jeer at either way
Herald Sun wants Costello as PM? Are Vics really that parochial?
LTEP, sweetie if it is 57 on Saturday it iwll feel like a record election result, deep inside a hangover for a week. You have trouble believing we can win so no shock you can’t believe a cold hard poll bashing you in the face. We all pick what we want sugar.
I would believe the Galaxy Poll if there was actually a real reason for the vote to close (besides the dull “it’s getting closer to Saturday” factor). The Libs have done nothing to improve their vote, and the ALP done nothing to lose any.
57-43. Doubtful. I’d say they’re both outliers.
Who usually runs with Galaxy on its pages?
Looks like Galaxy has been push-polling. Have to wait for other polls now. Newspoll is not biased; when you do lots of polls, some will be outside MoE.
ACNielsen has the best proven record over many elections. Galaxy was a Federal one hit wonder and only got it right because their favoured side won, they were shocking in the state elections predicting a LNP win in Qld. Newspoll has been too volatile of late, don’t know what they are doing.
Nielson is the poll I take the most notice of and I am starting to believe it will be somewhere around a 55% landslide just as Possum, Peter Brent and Simon Jackman have been saying. They are the experts so that’ll do me
Channel 7 Perth in their 7newsmail referring to the Kelly scandal: “Just 48 hours of the election campaign to go and the PM is struggling to overcome a Liberal prank that backfired. Political reporter Mark Riley says John Howard is fuming and embarrassed.”
Liberal stooges.
Mornin’ all. Well, I was completely wrong about the Herald Sun (see my claim a few days back that it would back Rudd). By God though, I’m heartened by the Tele. I don’t really care what any of the other papers have to say now…
The goon squad are union thugs. All unionists are thugs according to Jackie. They’re coming back she says. Chris Uhlmann gave it to her.
Wrong Let It End… look at this post from Crikey:
http://www.crikey.com.au/Politics/20060911-Queensland-believe-the-polls-not-the-leaks.html
“The final polls from both Newspoll and Galaxy picked the result almost exactly, while the punters who swung Centrebet’s odds back towards the Coalition in the last week all lost their money. The sole exception was a telephone poll from Gary Morgan published on Friday, which showed a 2.5% swing against Labor.”
Peter Slipper’s cab bill $30,000 one fifth of all cab fares for all Lib members. 7 news sunny coast (Mal Brough’s brother – Newsreader)
Mr Bean looking shaky.
While not related to the numbers, what surprises me is the amount of mistakes and gaffes being made by the Coalition when it is the LAST thing they need in this election. Staring defeat in the face must really be getting to some of them. It looks as though the Government is rooted. But hey, anything can happen. Labor might lose by a sole seat.
Middleton’s ABC report was deadly.
LTEP, taking both polls at face value, and lumping them together, we get a very close result of 54.5 per cent.
“Herald Sun wants Costello as PM? Are Vics really that parochial?”
No, I don’t think Victorians are. The Herald Sun has always been in the Liberal fold, so their endorsement of Howard is not at all surprising. And so far their stated reason for this endorsement is that Labor haven’t got enough MPs who have had previous experience in government, so according to that logic, it means that the Herald Sun will NEVER endorse a change of government because Labor will never gain experience in government while being in opposition.
A lot of their readers will agree with them too. It is a paper by the mindless for the mindless.
Grog, all the News Ltd tabloids run Galaxy, so the Hun, Tele, Courier Mail and ‘Tiser will have it. Might actually make waverers who don’t want a Labor landslide vote Labor.
I hear the galaxy has the primary vote the same for Labor and Coalition but that ACN is belived by most to be closer to the truth.
LTEP,
it does feel that way to me….I’ve gotta say, historic wil be the word.
Hawke – longest serving Labor leader and never defeated in an election is from Melbourne.
Menzies – longest serving Liberal Leader and never defeated in an election ( as Lib Leader ) was from Melbourne.
Keating from Sydney lost in a landslide.
Howard from Sydney about to lose in a landslide.
And you heathen are choosing someone from bloody Queensland instead of Melbourne. At least the new Deputy PM will be from Melbourne.
Both the Galaxy 52-48 and ACN 57-43 2PP figures seem unreal to me. However let’s take the average of the two polls: Labour = 54.5, Coalition = 45.5 which is sounds credible to me and is close to what Possum, Mumble etc have been predicting.
Yeah TofK and if you took 54.5% you’d be taking a reasonable position and a labor landslide win, some can’t face that – difficult childhoods I guess *shrugs*
if one takes into account the statistical analyses then ACN will be more accurate than Galaxy.
Given the week does anyone really believe the coalition will gain more votes than last week
I think Hugh Mackay will be vindicated by Saturday night and I hope that Malcom Makerras is also.
A Liberal voter on SBS just said he was voting for Howard because he thought the new IRA laws were wonderful. Has he told Gerry Adams?
Priktorians want Costeloo?
Victorians might be parochial….but they’re not stupid.
If the result was 57-43, not only would Howard lose his seat but so would Costello.
oh stop it, paul k. That was gold.
Are you guys forgetting the marginal seat poll Galaxy release last weekend?? 51/49 if you remember and that was with over 4000 people polled. There is a good chance the 52/48 is where we are at folks. It would explain why the Libs and the Nats were furiously running TV advertising till the end last night. If they thought they were out of it they wouldnt be spending those sorts of dollars on TV commercials. Either way some of the pollsters will lose alot of credibility on Sat.
What polls publish election day Super Saturday? It’s always a newspoll init?
Is this site called the poll bludger because everyone bludges off work whilst madly refreshing it?
Like I said before, it will be the AVERAGE of the polls that gets us to the best prediction of the final result. We still have Newspoll and Morgan to go. It will probably be the case that both Galaxy and Nielsen are at the outer edges of the margin of error, but we’ll see.
Its called Poll Bludger because the majority of posters on here seem to have endless amounts of time to comment on polls …even during working hours.
311 Hahaha yeah that’s about it.
Thommo you can look at the Libs late advertising that way… or you can look at it as a sign of desperation from a party that doesn’t know what to do to cling on.
There’s other signs of desperation, the ‘13 illegible candidates’, the pamphlet disaster etc.
I actually think it’s closer to 52 than 57 though… i’ll settle for 52.5% or lower. It also backs up claims on here last night that internal polling was showing a tight result, under 52% and that there will be 5 seats in it either way (neither party really knows).
LTEP, of course the election can be 57/43. Get real.
FACT: It has been the longest campaign ever and has captured the interests of more people than ever. They are prepared to make a more informed and inbiased decision than ever.
More people are going to get it more right than ever.
Therefore 57/43 is extremely possible.
Thommo, dont just choose the 52/48 poll because it suits you, you tool, look at the polls for the past year, Galaxy’s is the ONLY 52/48 we’ve had….
Thommo
Not everyone has to work
I think the Galaxy poll was partly taken over the weekend while the ACN was taken during the week.
Ok, in a desperate effort to stop this mindless rambling can we just settle on a few things
57-43 seems a bit high and AC have a good rep
52-48 seems a bit low and galaxy have a ok rep, mainly because of the last election (I’m being very kind there)
In between them is around 55-45… seems reasonable
55-45 is about what we’ve been seeing for ever now so this also seems reasonable
Glen is a fool
ok, we all agree on that?
‘There is a good chance the 52/48 is where it is at’.
Well there is some chance. I think good is stretching it um a lot. But some posters might find their credibility stretched on Saturday too.
Bought my radio today, will be handing out how to votes from 4 – 6 pm Sat with my headphones in.
So has any poll predicted a win for the LNP yet?
Actually, there’s more Labor seats here in Victoria, so no Vic. is not parochial, the Hun is just dumb, useful only for sporting results and lining the budgie’s cage.
I have a favor to ask LTEP, can you leave our side and join the libs … they will need all the members they can get.
But mindless rambling is what I’m good at.
LTEP, no I am not wrong. I was referring to the Galaxy poll in the Courier-Mail showing LNP 51/49 at the start of the campaign, total rubbish.
@320
Makes sense to me.
(Esp the Glen bit….hope I wasn’t out a line big fella….)
No, making funny jokes is what your good at
Now, back in your box!
Is Moe everyone is talking about Moe Howard of the Three Stooges;-)
320
slartybardfast Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 7:17 pm
57-43 seems a bit high and AC have a good rep
52-48 seems a bit low and galaxy have a ok rep
In between them is around 55-45… seems reasonable
55-45 is about what we’ve been seeing for ever now so this also seems reasonable
Glen is a fool
ok, we all agree on that?
YEp, slarty, we’ll be able to get back designing fjords, eh?
Jasie, here here. I second that.
No, the fjords are Mine…mine!
Re 283,
ducko Says:
Probably ….. that was why VIC swung so far in 2004. It wasn’t a pro Howard vote, it was an anti – Latham vote. yeah, sure Howard was from NSW as well but Latham was a more scarey proposition. I think it will be just desserts though for both the Herald Sun and Costello (former for endorsing Howard under those reasons and the latter for not challenging last year when he should have) if Costello gets swept out of his seat
.
.
No. It’s Bartender Moe from the Simpsons.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moe_Szyslak
Jasmine… I’m not on anyone’s ’side’. How childish.
Let It End, sorry… what were the other polls showing at the start of the campaign. I thought they all showed Labor come back during the campaign? Particularly after the death of Mr Irwin.
Centre: The campaign is the same length (I think) as the ‘04 election and the ‘84 election. Both showed Coalition recoveries… although one was in Opposition after a previous landslide election.
“219
Glen Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 6:39 pm
Julie ive suffered defeats from the Libs in Victoria and WA i know what its like to lose and i am not looking forward to losing this one but despite what you might think of JWH Australia is better off than we were in 1996.”
It’s OK, Glen. This isn’t Spain 1936. Your life and liberty will not be imperilled after E day. We the people have a spot of National Housekeeping to attend to, that’s all. Rodent Rausing. Nothing personal.
Well same goes for you Andrew , you tool. Dont chose the ACN because it suits you.
Even a Septic has bought into poll bludgin’
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22800579-5013948,00.html
In this election a 52% 2PP to the ALP should give them 20 seats – a comfortable win! All the polls are saying their best results are coming from Qld, NSW and SA where they stand to win most seats. The only way they’d not get the numbers would be big wasted swings in Vic, Tas, ACT and NT and low swings in NSW, Qld and SA. It won’t happen! They’re actually on target for 30+ seats won with 54% 2PP. Watch Howard and the conservatives squirm if it’s 55% or 56% 2PP!
Further to Vics. being parochial, I would rather gouge out my genitals with a blunt spoon than have Tip for PM. (Does it qualify as mindless rambling though?)
Let It End,
Galaxy’s website shows their last poll for that Qld election as quite accurate. If true, that would be a more relevant yardstick than their first one. Especially when looking (as we are now) at a poll on D-Day minus 2.
LTEP, crap. This campaign has been going since Rudd became leader.
It has been an exraordinary election. We could easily be in for an extraordinary result.
Mark my words. Galaxy will be the one losing credibility and thrown in the scrap heap with Morgan. They consistently understate ALP BY 2% primary & overstate the Libs by 2% primary. They are a joke!
thru the drop down menu at the top of the page you can link the data shown to any of the polls…
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/
…its going to be a butt kicking.
Davo, swings in the ACT and NT will not effect the overall national swing due to the population. Try it on the election calculator. If you move it all the way up the national swing barely budges.
The last 730report b4 Super saturday just startin’. Silence please.
OK. 7.30 Report about to start.
Thommo, ACN have produced polls in the past straight after or before Newspoll that were worse for the ALP. Get your facts straight.
Suffice to say, there’s an excellent chance of 53% on these figures, which will do me nicely.
That will represent a public thumping of Howard. Anything more is a bonus
340 Snapper
Rambling maybe, but definitely not mindless
Most of us are decent people pissed off at being manipulated.
Harry, if gouging out your you own genitals with a blunt spoon is a sign of your commitment to SOMETHING.
I’m not arguing with you about ANYTHING
Clarke and Doyle looks a p#sser
343 [Galaxy will be the one losing credibility and thrown in the scrap heap with Morgan.]
The trouble for Galaxy after their ‘Fine Cotton’ ring-in type effort just prior to the Queensland state election last year, it is hard to see how they have any credibility to lose.
For nervous nellies, I have come up with a very effective way to crystallise your thinking.
Just imagine taking a significant amount of cash and placing it on the Coalition with the bookies, considering the odds are so attractive.
See what I mean?
Flash @ 355 – no nervousness from my end. Solid Labor win on Saturday. I’m sticking with 87 seats.
Well, had my nose to the grindstone all day 9to make up for the ice machine last night) and I surface (having only had thirty or so SMSs to keep me going) to discover a whole new world of joy.
It keeps getting better. This is going to be wonderful …
7:30 report starts with Grab of Jackie Kelly’s abysmal performance today, then story. Lib volunteer says they distributed fake how to votes last time.
57 TPP may be an understatement this time on Sat!
Yes Dr Duck… on the ‘alleged’ pamphlet. How can a pamphlet be alleged?
Ah yes, Dr Duck, and without wishing to insult your feathered cousins, that Ms Kelly is a goose and a half
CL -
a) It already is wonderful.
b) Possum got the final score right. Just a touch over 55%.
c) Yes, this election is going to set records.
d) ACN caught the momentum. It may be an outlier, but it represents the trend.
e) The whole argument about Labor not being ready for Government has been thoroughly debunked. Not by words, but by actions. The calm, machine-like performance of the Labor campaign has, finally, gotten through to the electorate. That’s producing a groundswell defection to Labor.
LTEP – it’s under police investigation. Hence the word “alleged” will get used quite a lot from now on. Although I think the defence is that it was comedy, not that it didn’t happen!
Kelly is a total grub. And clearly possessed of little brain. But much racialist invective, i suspect.
Mark @ 361 – well said.
Thanks Marko, I appreciate the power of even more powerful thinking
That should be positive thinking – it’s been a long day (after a long night …)
LTEP you are saying you aren’t a paid up branch meeting attending member of the Australian Labor Party?
Being one isn’t at all childish, in fact I don’t think children can join.
Anyhoo no need to suspend or expel you if you aren’t one of us. Just you have stated over and over again you support us. Unless I’m confusing you with someone.
Anyhoo, you don’t have a side, fine.
Newspoll was ALP 54/46 compared to Galaxy 49/51 on the same weekend in August. Apart from the one off result in Federal 2004 Galaxy has not been so flash and ALWAYS favours Libs IMO.
thommo, I’m not choosing AC Neilsen, I dont believe that poll either, but you look really desparate clinging to the single poll of the year from any polster that had the libs under 53 2PP
7.30 report confirms Neilsen says 57-43 – strangely contradicted by a Galaxy saying 52-48!!!
7:30 claims Libs have porked Monaro to the tune of 100 Million.
The way the media are (quite rightly) stringing up the coalition for their racist little venture in the ‘burbs, the AC Nielsen is a very real possibility. This act undermines any, if any, legitimacy of their fear campaign as baseless smear, and paints them as the desperate gutter politicians that they are. Im thinking my 82ALP prediction will be trampled by the Labor stampede quite early in the night. Hey, here’s hopin.
7.30 Report – if the rusted-on Libs in Eden-Monaro are going for Labor, it’s pretty much all over now.
Jasmine @ 321, Not if you were on my booth. Things in ears are rude if you are engaging with people and will put off voters.
7:30 has lifetime libs in Eden Monaro, positive about Nairn, but going to vote Labor.
My 86 is looking pretty safe LOW side, should have listened to Gus and gone with 106, never reach your targets if you don’t set them.
Look at all the over 50 that are going to vote for Labor in Eden Monaro. “we don’t like the gov, but we like gary nairn” – all over red rover.
G’day Jas
Bet you Randall is sweating, still reckon 4-5 in WA, won’t know till Saturday if he is one of them.
StanS I’m not in your booth, and for the first time in a few elections I’m not the booth captain and I’m not scrutineering. And if the captain wants to send me home from my booth, in WA, in a non-marginal, for listening to the radio, she can. Or he, I have no idea.
Those Union Bosses caught out trying to run the country again.
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/ama-gives-tick-to-coalition-health-plan/20071122-1c7a.html
I like that talk Arbie Jay!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I’d give up Stirling and Hasluck for Canning, I’m sure the party wouldn’t but I would in an instant.
So, are we expecting a Newspoll tomorrow, or Sat?
Geezuz
Why dont the Eden Monarians tell us what they really think!
Doesn’t augur well for the rat.
(7.30 Report)
53.5-54% for Labor looks the most accurate.
Jas
Gus has upped his to 120, Poss told him not to hold back, I reckon 92 with an upper limit of 117.
NEWSPOLL in SATURDAYS Australian! According to Kerry. Now interviewing Liebevic and Greeny!
Wife is chuffed – received Labor party mail, all in Chinese.
jasmine I’m a member of no political party. I will probably vote for Labor for the first time this election (usually I vote for the Greens). I try to keep an open mind though and judge things objectively.
The Eden-Monaro thing is a revelation. My colleague who was earlier wavering out of a dislike of Mike Kelly today has locked into Labor after the pamphlet fiasco.
Sol and Antony on 730 report
Kerry O’Brien says Newspoll is due on Saturday morning then interviews Sol Levovic (sp?) and Anthony Green. Sol states the obvious – Gvt is in trouble.
Let’s hope that this “mood for change” will translate into a landslide on Saturday. It will send a strong message to the far right and racist elements of the Liberal party that “we don’t want your kind of politics in this country”. The reality of course is that the moderate Liberals will pay for this landslide before those who are truly to blame go to the chopping board.
LEPT 388
That is a very interesting observation. Linday is spreading tentacles.
What would put the icing on the demolition cake of this bunch of incompetent white supremicists? Tony Abbott to lose Warringah! You’d be able to hear the collective sigh of relief from an open window.
Don’t mean to rain on the ALP parade here – the polls look great two days out – but don’t expect the Kelly saga to boost numbers. Just as the Burke dinner, Rein business deals, Strippergate or the ear wax tube translated to hard numbers.
57 looks on the high side, I’m in the split the difference camp.
Andrew: there have been plenty of polls showing the Libs under 53
That includes Morgan and Newspoll
I mean 43
Anthony says last newspoll would lead to a labor gain of 100 seats, suggesting that it has been such a bad week for the coalition, a landslide is possible.
‘283@ducko Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 6:59 pm
Herald Sun wants Costello as PM? Are Vics really that parochial?’
Yes, and they have a point if you want Costello to be PM you need a Liberal Win.
On another note I received my second letter in a week from my Blue-ribbon Liberal MP.
I’m inclined to think the result will be around 55-45 for every time a Galaxy poll has shown a swing towards the Liberals the next set of polling from the other pollsters have moved towards the ALP.
Meh never mind, mea culpa for not reading properly, its late, ignore my last 2 posts.
Thanks people. Looks like we’ll probably get 2 good polls on sat
thank god Antony is sane….bloody Sol talking up the economic management and satisfaction rating questions….
Am told The Australian newspaper is editorialising for Rudd tomorrow
Jasmine and StanS:
Which Seat ? I’m in Pearce and will be at the party at the Workshops
The site where Dickie Court did his first act of bastardry as Premier by closing them – the irony is delicious
Nick @ 401, Sol is a tool, full stop. Antony is leaps and bounds ahead of him and his analysis is spot on.
“394
Tim Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 7:52 pm
Don’t mean to rain on the ALP parade here – the polls look great two days out – but don’t expect the Kelly saga to boost numbers. Just as the Burke dinner, Rein business deals, Strippergate or the ear wax tube translated to hard numbers.”
It will, because this is a party on the decline, and it’s yet another reason – and a very familiar one – not to vote for it. It confirms everything that people have feared about sections of the Liberal Party, all the way to the top.
Usually I’d agree Tim but the reaction in my workplace today to the pamphlet was astonishing. Literally everyone was talking about it.
We are coming back!
We are coming back!
Sportingbet has shortened Maxine’s odds today and is now betting on the tightest margin.
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/labors-odds-shorten-in-bennelong/20071122-1c6d.html
John Clarke and Brian Dawe were hilarious!!!!
“oooooooooo!!!! juliagillardjuliagillardjuliagillard…..wooooooo!!!!! she’s got red hair! you know she’s got red hair?”
ah, fantastic
Yes Tabitha, it appears you are ‘coming back’. To the opposition benches.
407
We are coming back 2037?
We are coming back 2057?
clarke and dawe pure gold!!
“407
tabitha Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 7:56 pm
We are coming back!
We are coming back!”
from where?… hospital?…pub?…sniffing glue?
#
407
tabitha Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 7:56 pm
We are coming back to Opposition
We are coming back to Opposition
“Am told The Australian newspaper is editorialising for Rudd tomorrow”
Well if that is true, then it will have been a MAJOR turnaround after all their attempts at trying to bolster Howard’s support all year, not to mention the many smears manufactured against Rudd.
tabitha Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 7:56 pm
We are coming back in 2030!
We are coming back maybe 2050!
As I have said on a previous thread, look at the average of all the final polls when they are in and it will be close to the final result.
2004 Final polls;
ACN: LNP 49 LAB 37
MOR: LNP 45.5 LAB 38.5
NP: LNP 45 LAB 39
GAL: LNP 46 LAB 39
If we take the avg of these we get a result that is WITHIN 1% of the actual primary vote for each party.
AVG of Last polls: LNP 46.375 LAB 38.375
Actual Result: LNP 46.7 LAB 37.6
407 [We are coming back!
We are coming back!]
We’ve been telling you for months that the Liberals are coming back to the opposition benches. Why do you think there is so much excitement around here everyone agrees with you on this point.
“407
tabitha Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 7:56 pm
We are coming back!
We are coming back!”
Of course, you are darling, of course you are. Now settle down – you’ve just had a bad dream, but mummy and daddy are in the next room and we’ll come in to check on you throughout the night. And remember – you’ve got Glen’s party on the weekend, so you don’t want to be sad, do you? Here’s a big kiss from mummy and me – now you go back to sleepy bo-bos. And we’ll keep the hall light on for you. Good night.
OK … did anyone hear Antony tonight on the 7:30 report? Words out of his own mouth – “if the ACN is replicated on Satuday night, I can call the election before the polls close in QLD.” [ i.e NSW, VIC and TAS will deliver 16 seats on their own]
bring it on
it is open season on the bar in our house
Tabitha,
Have you finished shredding all the pamphlets yet?
Golly – didn’t Red Kerry look pleased tonight. Antony Green was being very diplomatic too. I think Antony wanted to say that the Galaxy poll was crap but he was being more professional than that.
umm, mikem?
#419
You have got soft while o/s.
Tab stfu!
cancel that…soz
any election parties in dobell?
Crush the Libs utterly without a single hint of mercy!!!
Clark and Dawe just summed up not only Howard’s election campaign, but I reckon a pretty big part of the last 11 years. Classic stuff. The only downside of the Rodent’s coming demise is never seeing Dawe saying “Welcome Mr Howard” ever again.
Alex, it certainly looked like Antony almost said that. I wonder how much inside information they know?
Seriously the anticipation is killing me. This result will either be the biggest dissappointment ever or the end to the nightmare.
Antony Green was unhappy about not being able to call it by 6:30pm lol!
If the ALP is to win, it HAS to do it before WA.
All this wating up for WA cr*p. There won’t be any point, if it’s got to that stage the ALP is gone.
The Oz gets on the Galaxy bus:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22802562-601,00.html
Re 382,
TofK Says:
Morgan tomorrow. Newspoll on Saturday. That was on the ABC news or the 7:30 report, can’t remember which.
How many of youse has to do scrutineering? Never done it before, but I will be extra careful ‘cos methinks that there will be some nasty little liberals at play. Any advise would be greatly appreciated.
422 – Alex
Actually, Antony did say the Galaxy poll was crap, but did it in such a way that defamation charges can not be laid upon him.
Ah, how the ABC must master the arts of diplomacy!
Jasie, Arbie, Gusface could turn out to be the true geneius.
Steve thanks for the link about betting in Bennelong The bet mentioned at the bottom is interesting 2.50 for any other seat except for the ones mentioned above it for what will be the most marginal seat after the election. Stats guy hear should let us know if that is a good bet because if you had a outlier swing in any of the other seat either way, any seat could up as the most marginal after the election.
Love this from the Herald Sun:
”Then there’s the experience factor: of the likely Rudd frontbench, only a couple of the shadow ministry have experienced government … ”
Ok, guess they’re in favour of a dictatorship now.
Pathetic.
Yes Grog at 322
The Adelaide Advertiser phone poll.
Ok, I’m feeling a bit guilty for not having made a serious comment for a while, and I think some water needs to be thrown on the Galaxy vs ACN fire. As is often the case, I think possum’s analysis on this was best. When everyone else’s eyeballs were popping out of their heads, possum said that this is “the business as usual we’ve all come yawn about”.
He’s right. Both polls are within the MoE of a 54.5-45.5 trend, and it just so happens that we’ve got two outliers at opposite ends of the MoE coming out at the same time, and because there’s a discrepancy, everyone gets their knickers in a knot. Nothing much has changed. The despicable Lindsaygate of this morning may or may not lose the Coalition some votes, but it sure as hell won’t win them any. The ALP will still get 53-55% of the 2PP vote on Saturday and the number of seats they’ll win will still have a 9 in front of it. The only way I can see things changing is if the LNP dig themselves bigger and worse holes in the next 36 hours. At their current rate, I wouldn’t put it past them.
TofK i am scrutineering in Chisholm for the Libs. Never done it before either but aside from carefully doing my job ill make sure to crack jokes about the Greens with the Family First people lol!
The GG has to advertise for Rudd, cause they want to stay the GG.
Yep, will definitely be watching the ABC on Saturday. I want to see O’Brien and Middleton cry and Green smash his laptop to pieces.
Thommo
On your theory about Lib late big spend. Depends who holds the purse strings and what is driving them. Maybe Howard calls the shots and the Lib director cannot say no to him even if he wants to. After all just 8 weeks ago the cabinet all told Howard to go and he stayed. Maybe the Lib director only cares about saturday night not future debt. Many ways to look at it.
433,
You will only have to watch over the HOR count. The members office will require you to call in periodic updates. Once the HOR count is done for your party, you are good to go.
I worked the NSW state election from the AEC side in March. We had scrutineers for the Liberal and Labor candidates. The Liberal bloke was able to leave as soon as his votes were counted. Twice as many Labor votes in our booth (safe Labor seat at both state and federal levels) so the lady there for the Labor candidate had to stay around longer. Senate votes are separated into piles for each party but NOT counted. They are collected and delivered to a central location and that count takes some number of days to turn out. Scrutineers are only for HOR votes.
htth
441 [TofK i am scrutineering in Chisholm for the Libs.]
It will be an eyeopener for you Glen and a good education as well. There will be no jokes from Libs on Saturday night Glen just look and weep.
Nick @ 439
since we are dealing with a 95% confidence level and two polls the chances of that happening is 0.25% or 5% of 5%. Not at all likely.
lol what about Gillard, Steven??
This 2PP result indicates a Labor Primary around 48-49 and a Coalition Primary of 40 or less. If so, this is a return to earlier levels recorded by ACN and matches the trends in Newspoll’s state-by-state by state results. The Coalition seemed to pick up some support at the expense of minor parties early in the campaign, but their support has dissipated again as the campaign has continued. This must reflect the passing of events – especially the launches, the interest rate rise and the general collapse of the coalition campaign themes and messages, compared with the very tight game run by Labor.
It all still points to a result above 55% 2PP for Labor – an excellent outcome.
Dont be hard on Sol, Sol was just answering Kerry’s question on the matter, you could tell Sol knew what was happenin’
Have fun Glen. I’m sure we’ll look like a pair of headless chooks. Unless your good at bluffing
Of course the Australian and the Tele have endorsed Krudd – Rupert told them to because he stands to make gazillions from Labor’s broadband policy. I’m actually really surprised the Herald Sun is backing the Coalition. It could just be an attempt to make the stable appear balanced.
the thing is Lindsay saga has changed everything
so the 52/48 result can be discounted IMO
TofK yeah i agree it will be fun, plus we’ll both be able to laugh at the Democrats and thank them for their votes lol!
herald sun endorsed howard – is rupert schizo?
new thread – can someone come on board for Williams new experiment
Yes, the NSW libs right faction are the nastiest piece of work in the party nationally. This is Howards faction, need more be said?
Is the Australian backing Rudd. On its website it only states who the tele and sun are backing.
Oops i mean his dress rehearsal for Saturday night
“This is the sweetest victory of all.
This is a victory for the true believers”
- John Winston Howard, 24th November 2007
“452
blacklight Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 8:15 pm
the thing is Lindsay saga has changed everything”
This is true.
What I want to know, then, is how many of these leaflets were distributed – a couple of streets’ worth, I think – and (which is harder) how much of a swing will they have delivered to the Labor Party.
We can then do the calculations – say, 1 poorly printed leaflet is worth 1,000 votes. Or 5,000 even.
Liberals of Lindsay – a Relaxed and Comfortable Nation Salutes You!
Re the editorials, Rupert doesn’t give a damn about who wins, he just WANTS TO SELL NEWSPAPERS AND MAKE LOTS OF MONEY!!
I didn’t think that Vics were that parochial – nobody could like Tip surely?
I don’t believe The Australian will back Rudd. Is it confirmed?
I guess the LNP trolls got lonely over on the Galaxy thread.
tabitha Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 8:18 pm
“What the f#!k happened?”
- John Winston Howard, 24th November 2007
I still don’t think they will get more than 105 seats :=)
Good on Galaxy for their bogus 52/48 poll result, push those remaining undecided to think, hey if we want change we better definitely vote for Rudd. maybe the result will now be 57/43 after all!
is that before qld and wa
On The Herald Sun’s support for Howard, its editor Bruce Guthrie – former editor of hard-left Sunday Age – was on Melbourne radio strongly implying he was going to be arguing vigourously for a pro-Rudd editorial but he noted that would be overturning many elections precedent when the paper backed the Coalition.
On Galaxy’s past shady form they will produce another poll on Saturday more in line with reality. After this latest poll I am sure they will put in an effort to get it right in the end on election day.
tabitha Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 8:18 pm
“I told you this old prick couldn’t win”
- Peter Costello, 24th November 2007
Galaxy is disgusting. I agree that they will do another poll now to be released on the morning covering their arses with a 55/56 Labor lead.
Poor old Galaxy, this might have been a story if it weren’t for Kelly and then ACN to keep them honest.
Galaxy should be ignored.
tabitha Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 8:18 pm
“Can I please be Leader of the Opposition again”
- Dolly Downer, 24th November 2007
Julie are you in the seat of Lowe as I am ? If so I think we know each other!!! Our kids went to the same public school.
tabitha Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 8:18 pm
“What a load of Bulls**t”
- Tony Abbott, 24th November 2007
The minimum Labor will get is 53%
The most probable is 54.5%
Who knows the level of effect the Kelly Gang’s coming out of retirement is going to have? ANY soft/wavering Liberal will probably jump to Labor and the undecideds will follow the trend and, now also the negative impression hanging over the LNP.
God, the book on this election is going to be fun to read.
Stephen Kaye. I agree about Rupe and broadband. Fairfax has been strategically shifting it’s revenue mix from dwindling newspaper advertising to a greater exposure to online. Rupe wants to leverage his brands in the same way. Broadband for all is exactly what he wants. and its not just newspaper content and real estate… he wants to be able to deliver movies on demand straight to your house so he can get better value out of Fox etc… he knows who to back.
“Question: Could we have tried harder for working families?
Answer: No we gave it our all but it wasn’t enough”
“Question: Will Labor abandon the fight for working families ?
Answer: Not while I am leader of this great party”
- Kevin Rudd 24 November 2007
I can’t believe I’m reading this. Steven Kaye thinks Rupert Murdoch is promoting bias against the Liberal Party?
I’m actually going to mimic Stephen on this one. Can anyone confirm the Australian is running their editorial for Rudd? I don’t believe it.
tabitha Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 8:18 pm
“Guess it’s back to working at Dad’s old petrol station”
- John Howard, 24th November 2007
Remember Murdoch chases and doesn’t lead public opinion.
In the 2004 US Election the tight polls forced him to give money to both Bush and Kerry! He couldn’t have afforded *not* to have paid the winner. Trouble is it’s hard to tell the winner when it’s close. This election isn’t and he’s backing Rudd.
Does anyone know a single soul who has voted according to a Murdoch editorial? Didn’t think so.
Murdoch papers are great for toilet paper and kitty litter and not much else I’m afraid!
#478
tabitha Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 8:25 pm
“Question: Could we have stuck it harder up the Libs?
Answer: No we gave it more than enough”
“Question: Will Labor abandon Howard’s extreme policies ?
Answer: While I am leader of this great Nation we will”
- Kevin Rudd 24 November 2007
Re 474,
Vote1Maxine Says:
“Julie are you in the seat of Lowe as I am ? If so I think we know each other!!! Our kids went to the same public school.”
No, I live in Werriwa in SW Sydney (West Hoxton). Moving to Canberra (Chisholm, ACT) in January so will get ACT elections in October 08.
Should be fun seeing a 68 year old conveyancing clerk
Letp. Both the GG and the DT have been subtley (i know. its not what they are known for) shifting their position… been happening for about two weeks now. I caught Penberthy on live blog on DT, he was not favouring Lib at all. This was over a week ago and it was the first clue that i picked up. I’ve been watching it since and its definitely been shifting.
Be quick to check this one out.
http://www.domain.com.au/Public/PropertyDetails.aspx?adid=2006832414
once in a lifetime opportunity
Nick #439 is correct The Galaxy and AC Neilson can be explained away as being at the extremes of the MoE. Calm down everyone it is still 54.5% ALP 2PP.
Howard’s haunted look at the National press club said it all. When the goings on in Lindsay it sinks in with voters (right across Australia) it is going to get ugly for the Coalition on Saturday. Howard is Cactus.
I’m putting the Champagne in ice.
Kina,
Good call. You’re in line with Graham Richardson who’s obviously seen extensive internal polling of marginals.
voted here in london on wednesday night. a good 30 min wait in the queue in the rain to get into the embassy. for what it’s worth, i’d say there were far more people with green/alp how-to-vote cards than liberal. surely the split of people living abroad would be something like 70-30 conservative-progressive.
also, there was actually a girl handing out democrat pamphlets. i found that quite amusing.
Sorry Julie. The Julie I know who works for the AEC lives in Lowe. But as a Labor supporter I reckon you must be alright
. Good luck with the move.
Stephen @ 446, I don’t really get what you’re saying, please elaborate.
Can someone please tell Sol that if you combine these facts together, there is one logical conclusion based on all polls:
1. Howard preferred for best economic manager
2. Rudd preferred as PM
3. Labor are going to win comfortably
The conclusion is simple: Being seen as the best economic manager is NOT THE MOST IMPORTANT THING. THERE IS MORE TO A PM THAN ECONOMICS AND THAT IS WHY HOWARD WILL LOSE.
Put another way “ITS NOT THE ECONOMY, STUPID!”
Sorry, just felt I had to get that off my chest.
Stephen I’d like to see you justify this post on your blog:
http://ozdemocracy.com/?p=49#more-49
“The result of this poll got me thinking, why are ACNielsen and Newspoll coming up with historic swings and others polls are not. Surely if there is an historic swing on then all the polls should be showing the same. One possible answer I came up with was union involvement. I am not sure of this but I would expect most of the workers at Newspoll and ACNielsen are union members. It would not be hard to move every 10th Coalition vote to Labor or have a list of friendly numbers to call.”
Is that what you seriously believe?
The Lindsay pamphlet scandal made it on to BBC World television news.
*************************
Don’t underestimate the capacity of some dim-wit swinging voters to walk away from the huge publicity over the pamphlet scandal with the following take-away message:
“Oh, Labor supports Muslim extremists. I knew it all along.”
GG @402,
What is your source for that info? Cheers
Howard at the end of every sentence of his conceding defeat speech.
Rudd from 6.30 sat night.
Tabitha is Elly-May Clampet.
Must be some fairly upset Liberal voters out there – this is the best result I have seen for Labor supporting question at this site – which usually gives about 50/50
http://pulse.ninemsn.com.au/result/74/
Re 487,
Vote1Maxine Says:
No, when I said that I worked the AEC side of things, I was an employee but just on the day for the election. I was a “casual”
tabitha Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 8:18 pm
“BUT, BUT, BUT I AM INVINCIBLE??????”
- John Howard, 24th November 2007
Lose the election please,
Stephen makes stuff up on his site and elsewhere all the time. Yesterday he was claiming he had access to the internal polls of both the Liberal and Labor Parties. He’s full of it. The gall he has to call his site ‘ozdemocracy’. What a joke.
Diogenes @ 489: I think we were all thinking that, thanks very much. If I could just muse on the same subject:
Despite the ALP being significantly ahead on the primary vote, 2PP vote, leaders approval rating, as well as the question of who best manages health and education and a few other things I forgot to mention, Howard’s lead in preferred economic manager is apparently reason to talk up the election as if it’s going to be a contest for yet another bloody day.
has this been mentioned here today?
Jackie Kelly is one of the Channel 7 hard hitting team for their election night broadcast.
does anyone thik she will appear?
Can anyone actually give me a reason to dismiss the Galaxy poll other than they’re ‘biased’ or push polling?
Do we know any details about the size, primaries etc?
Wow. Good on CH7, they really have a light weight line up…
http://www.domain.com.au/Public/PropertyDetails.aspx?adid=2006832414#
Property for sale!
Thanks to Lomandra on Possum.
Is there a precedent for the single handed destruction of a political party of the orders of magnitude being conjoured up here?
I find the considerable margins being discussed implausible in a country as conservative as Australia.
Sorry that’s Diogenes @ 492 I was referring to.
tabitha Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 8:18 pm
“Love or Hate me, I am the best EX PM this country has ever seen.”
- Dolly Downer, 24th November 2007
There’s no particularly good reason to dismiss either ACN or Galaxy Yo Ho Ho. The only things that make either doubtful is that Galaxy looks a touch too low and ACN a touch too high. Newspoll will be interesting. I’m thinking it’ll come out at around 53/47.
tabitha Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 8:18 pm
“Love or Hate me, I am the best EX PM this country has ever seen.”
- John Howard, 24th November 2007
501 Nick- I think Sol looked genuinely puzzled at how the favoured economic manager could lose so badly. The Rodent thinks the same as do most of the LNP. They just don’t get it. There is more to life than greed. I honestly think Howie, when he loses, is just not going to understand and neither will most of his party.
Is Antony stirring when he says he’ll call it before QLD closes or we’ll be awaiting the sandgropers? If HE doesn’t really know (based partly on one Galaxy which may be an outlier) then how can muggins (me) be expected to sleep easy? Happy pills?
I got this letter from Kevin Rudd’s office today. I’d thought I share it with you all. In part.
When the ballot box close,the after party for the Griffith campaign team will be held @ Suncorp Stadium from 6pm. Please accept my invitation to come to the after party – &,if you like,bring a guest as well.
This will be a nationally televised event so I would encourage you to attend & wear your Kevin 07 gear.
Kind regards ….. Kevin Rudd.
Can’t wait
!!!
Even John H*ward has finally conceeded defeat tonight. Hyacinth has listed their home on Domain.com http://www.domain.com.au/Public/PropertyDetails.aspx?adid=2006832414#
Kirribilli Removals has been telling us for ages now that he was booked for the 25th some time ago….
WHy would news Ltd commission Galaxy to do a nation-wide poll that will just compete with thier newspoll this Saturday?
I think the Galaxy will only be relevent to hand-picked marginals, basically an update of thier last one
HarryH @ 502: I saw that in the paper today and nearly spat my dinner onto it. I think Channel 7 will be mighty unimpressed with Ms Kelly’s behaviour today, and if I was running the show at Ch 7 I think I’d be telling her she wasn’t welcome come Saturday night and finding myself another Liberal MP to fill her seat. Then again, if I was running the show at channel 7 I probably wouldn’t run coverage of an election without any political journos, but hey, that’s just me.
Pretty unlikely that the two final polls for two companies would both produce extreme results at either end of their MOEs don’t you think? The apriori probability for this is v v small (I think it’s 0.05 x 0.05 x 2 = 0.005 – once every 200 elections!)
One has to be suspicious that there is a systemic problem with one of the polls. The problem is that both were pretty good in 2004….
I think this year there’s going to be significant exit polling so that the election will be sort of called at 6pm (AEDT) sharp. Just like they do in France when polling closes at 8pm. Their networks have never been wrong with exit polls.
It’s much more dramatic than the drawn out slow death (ie 2hrs) H*ward would otherwise receive Sat night.
aussieguru. if only! i’ve been trying to work out how to crash his election night shindig.
Aussieguru01 WTF See I TOLD YOU RUDD WAS FULL OF HUBRIS RENTING OUT SUNCORP BHAGAGAHHHHHHHHH!
Pity he didnt do it before hand like Kinnock!
“I respect the judgement of the Australian people and tonight after a good old fashioned Labor wake we recommit ourselves to keeping the Government accountable and fighting the good fight for working families”
- Kevin Rudd November 24th 2007
I reckon it’s doubtful that it’ll be called before the Qld closes, since so many of the likely gains will come from there. But by the time WA shuts the doors, it might be a different story.
Howard: Why do I hate him so?
As a middle class professional living in North Sydney, a net beneficiary of the orgy of tax cuts since 2000 it seems reasonable to ponder all the reasons why I don’t like Howard.
It comes down to a question of values.
1. Opportunity: Unlike Howard I actually believe in the “fair go”. I don’t care who you are, you should have access to decent education and health care, an opportunity to be part of a decent community. Subsiding private health insurance while simultaneously starving the public system of funds is obscene. Lavishing funds on wealthy elite private schools while government schools can’t afford basic maintenance is equally abhorrent.
2. Leadership. One hopes in vain for true leadership, that is a government that takes a long-term view. Climate change is a classic example of a failure of leadership, as is the Iraq war. A strong alliance with the USA and Asia makes sense. Blind obedience to wilful stupidity does not. I am appalled at the fawning allegiance to the worst US president in living memory. GW Bush needed a reality check. Instead, our government enthusiastically fuelled the fire.
3. Morality. There are invisible lines you simply cannot cross in my book. There are many examples in the past 11 years but this one is emblematic for me. No Australian government worthy of the name can be complicit in the detention of an Australian citizen without charge on the flimsiest of evidence in the most appalling circumstances for 5 years. To all those buffoons who shout “terrorist!” I’m sorry but f*ck off and die. If David Hicks had actually done something wrong he should have been tried in a proper court of law – not some kangaroo court. This pathetic behaviour makes us all vulnerable to executive caprice (cf. Dr. Haneef).
4. Accountability. Governments are going to make mistakes, granted. But when you do stuff up, you need to accept responsibility, apologise, and put matters right (cf. Peter Beattie). The serial evasion, nobody told me, no-one is responsible of the Howard years make me sick. Howard govt. ministers are a pack of bloody liars and deserve all the odium that will be heaped upon them on Saturday.
So there it is, only some of the reasons, but more than enough.
A government that favours privilege over ability, that has abandoned leadership for sycophancy, that eschews basic morality and that is completely unaccountable richly deserves to be thrown bodily into the dustbin of history. Amen.
ps And you can stick your tax cuts up your backside!
Samuel K I have to agree. I tried suggesting this one time though and was shot down.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/071119/2/15082.html
Hyacinth’s sale is now making news on Yahoo7 !
“F*ck I am sick of that Tabitha stooge”
- Samuel K November 22nd 2007
” Where the f&ck is Gartrell I want his ar*e he promised me I would be Prime Minister”
- Kevin Rudd (off camera) 24th November 2007
Make a bet with you LTEP.
I say Newspoll is closer to ACNs 57/43 than Galaxys 52/48.
The loser leaves poll bludger site.
Newspoll will have phoned last night and tonight – and caught the impact of the Mujslim outrage on every TV news broadcast in Australia. Cant see Labors 2pp lower than 55.
Newspoll will have 53-47 i think
Diogenes @ 511, you’re probably right. Not only is it unimportant, but it’s a badly worded question which I think inherently favours an incumbent government, rendering it pretty useless as an election predictor.
Average Joe Polled doesn’t know much about how each party will run the economy, so you might as well go with the one who’s are running it at the moment than the one that hasn’t had a go for over a decade. I think it was Laurie Oakes (someone correct me if I’m wrong) said on telly the other day that the question is badly worded and really should be “Will Kevin Rudd stuff up the economy?”
I think the answer from the electorate based on the fact that the majority of them will be voting for him, is no.
Volunteer for Rudd in Griffith Middle Man!
Glen,
What is scurutineering?
tabitha Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 8:18 pm
“I am pleased to announce my future plans after tonight: Hyacinth and I will be heading off to Baghdad to take up the position of Honorary Consul. Prime Minister Rudd has graciously offered me this position as he understands my ongoing love and commitment to the War in Iraq.”
- John Howard, 24th November 2007
Yes Centre, it’s time for LTEP to finally put up or shut up.
LTEP will be like Galaxy Saturday night – a bit fat irrelevancy, linked to the Coalition HQ.
re: the liberal staffers getting caught : I’ve said this in another thread…
http://www.ozelection2007.info/forums/viewtopic.php?pid=34140#p34140
You know what I reckon? I reckon it was authorized, and it was Egan that tipped em off. Egan doesn’t dispute doing it… he disputes it being unauthorized.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/s … 21,00.html
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22799667-5001021,00.html
I’m not a gambler and I won’t leave this website unless William asks me to.
Just a hugh amont of volunteers Glenn!!! LOL LOL LOL !!!
Well said Maurico. There are a lot of people who agree with you. I also hope that many of your fellow voters in North Sydney agree. It would be great if Hockey – the voice of WorkChoices – lost his seat.
(Of course, I won’t mention that I also put a small bet on Hockey losing to Bailey).
i’m busy that day unfortunately. i’m actually in Griffith. not far from his house. maybe i could help with some lifting of equipment etc in the morning.
523 Maurico- I agree totally. I’m in much the same position. I would be much, much better off financially with the Rodents top bracket tax cuts but I would gladly give them up and more to live in a better country which is not an international embarrassment.
I think Newspoll will be around 54/46 though. Which would put it just a smidgen closer to Galaxy. Still not going to leave if I’m wrong though.
HooHoo is making sure that any “dodgy” votes that llok like they are trying to vote for you are counted and any that are for the opposing parties are excluded. It is party workers “advising” the AEC workers about what to do with each vote. Many people mark their ballots in an irregular manner and of course the parties want them.
It isn’t a dodgy practice as both sides are effectively keeping each other honest and it is up to the AEC worker to make the decision (on the night) and allows for the matter to be tested later on.
Centre, I think your stakes are too high. What about $1,000,000 instead?
People, do you realise we are arguing more about which poll will be closer to the election result than who will win the actual election?
lol
If you listen to the Jackie Kelly interviews again, I’ve broken the code.
She’s doing the best John Clarke impression I’ve ever heard.
“Liberal party money, Brian? Oh no, Brian. It was a chaser style prank Brian.”
tabitha Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 8:18 pm
“ Janette, I want a divorce.”
- John Howard, 24th November 2007
aussieguru. he usually settles in at the morningside afl club. not quite the salubrious surrounds of the wentworth! but somehow much more Australian!
Yep.
The UAP, led by Robert Menzies, disintegrated after suffering a heavy defeat in the 1943 election. The result was about 56% to labor.
It has all happened before.
If the result comes in at 57% the Liberals are finished as a party.
the SMH on the poll http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/labor-on-course-for-win/2007/11/22/1195321946067.html
no new info
Pi 536
That is exactly how I read it and was surprised none of the media picked it up this morning. Every single word is important with the doublespeak slimy Libs
Hey Maurico
Well said.
Pi that’s exactly what I thought. You have to look at their words closely these Libs. Which is why it astounds me that the media don’t pick these things up. You quite often read the jouranlist say “Howard has said x” and they follow this up with a quote from him that doesn’t actually say that.
#527
tabitha Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 8:50 pm
” Damn. Now I have to walk naked thru Kings Cross to pay off the bet I made on Howard. Bloody Libs. ”
- Tabitha 24th November 2007
Charles if we lose we wont be a dead party, we’ve a 2 party system we are one you are the other.
And should we lose we’ll have Julie Bishop as a possible leader or deputy to inject some new blood and hypnotising eyes into the Liberals to help sort us out.
Charles also the UAP put Billy Hughes in charge of them in 1943 and they were done, its like giving the leadership to Stuart McArthur lol.
With Malcolm and Julie we’ll be back but Howard should hold on.
Pi, your conspiracy theory is attractive, I have to say, he could well have been playing weazel words, not really lying by saying he didn’t distribute any UNauthorised material. My gut however, says that not even the Liberal Party HQ would be dumb enough to let that one through. Obviously Jackie Kelly, her husband and their dickhead mates are stupid enough to do it, but I really can’t bring myself to believe that it was given the go ahead at the highest level. The rodent looked pretty friggin angry today when he had to spend his whole press club address condemning it.
LTEP: were you the Liberal staffer that tipped off the ALP about the leaflet? If so, then you’re not all bad after all…
Bravo Maurico
Glen, I thought were going to be a one party state?
If the Libs lose (and that’s a big if) they’ll need to make a transition to someone completely new. That’s not Costello.
tabitha Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 8:50 pm
” I am a true believer Mr Howard. I love the way your dentures clack and the way your eyebrows change colours and that famous twitch. If you ever divorce Hyacinth I will be there for you. I want your babies. ”
- Tabitha 24th November 2007
“506
ismark Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 8:41 pm
Is there a precedent for the single handed destruction of a political party of the orders of magnitude being conjoured up here?
I find the considerable margins being discussed implausible in a country as conservative as Australia.
”
The Canadian election a few years back, which saw the Tories go from government to 2 seats.
A letter in the Mosman Daily today….remember this is blue ribbon liberal territory
“With only five more sleeps before the annihilation, I would like to express my appreciation to one of The Daily’s most consistent contributors: John Shailer of East Lindfield. John has kept me and I suspect many others in constant amusement with the self intoxication of his own verbosity regarding Kevin 07 and the perils faced by us all from “union bosses” as John describes them. I hope he hangs in there after the iceberg cometh on Saturday. In the meantime John, suck it.”
I.Gorse Cammeray
From my Crikey email (no longer a member, but they still keep sending them)
Dear Squatters,
The Jackie Kelly pamphlet affair gives context to the behaviour of another John Howard favourite, Senator Bill Heffernan, making it all the more relevant in the last moments of this federal election campaign.
Yesterday we reported sketchy details of an incident at Brisbane airport where the Senator created something of a scene. At the time, we didn’t know all that much about what had happened. Today we know more — the complete story follows in today’s edition. Interestingly, it wasn’t the original Brisbane exchange but Heffernan’s conduct in phone conversations to this office that gave Crikey the biggest window to the belligerent world of the Howard government’s back rooms.
The Senator demanded that we retract our fairly anodyne report of yesterday. He demanded we apologise. Our legal advice was that we ought not, that we should seek the Senator’s version and publish that. He refused to give it and went on to threaten physical violence. ”If I ever run across you,” the former parliamentary secretary to the Cabinet said, ”If I ever run across you, you f-cking better … you’re f-cking gone mate.’’ Nice.
555 Glen Says: November 22nd, 2007 at 8:59 pm
No Glen… in three years it will be a 2 party system of the ALP… and the Greens being the other.
Dear God, do the Libs want to stay in Opposition for ever.
LTEP, you have changed your mind in 13 minutes about Newspoll.
Samuel K. lol
They are quick
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lindsay_Affair
559 = Julie Bishop
Charles,
The disintergration of the ULP resulted in the formation of the Liberal Party just after the war
Are you sure we want this sort of result
So Galaxy was a marginals poll?
Pi then if that’s the case i believe ill vote for a third party!
What. No Gate?
The only strategy left for the Tories after this poll and “Kellygate” is how can they engineer another ‘Dismissal”.I cannot wait to see Minchins’ face on saturday night after the smug look he had on it three years ago.
I was thinking on the way home that this was the start of recriminations.
Someone in the left / moderate faction of the NSW Liberals has tipped of Labor so that a Right wing factional war lord could be expelled from the party, and so it ruined the chances of his wife winning a seat in parliament.
Galaxy was not a marginals poll
512,
What he meant was that IF the ACN result were duplicated on Saturday night, that would mean that the ALP would be delivered enough seats from VIC/TAS/NSW that he could call it before QLD had closed their polls. Mind you, that SA will close at 6:30 AEDST so that might have an impact into minimum 16 seats as well.
Shaboh, don’t trust wikipedia:
“Clark and Egan were photographed in the act by Labor sleuths on the night of Tuesday 20 November 2007″
Labor sleuths? But Jackie Kelly told me they were union goons.
Centre… what did I say about Newspoll?
556 Nick Says: November 22nd, 2007 at 8:59 pm
I think you vastly underestimate the lengths the liberal party will go to to stay in power. I reckon Egan is a rat abandoning the sinking ship, and has his eye on a book deal in the near future.
No joke… I reckon Egan tipped the ALP staffers off, and then made damn sure that he covered his ass by ensuring that it was completely authorized by his party. He comes out a hero with a conscience, and he sinks the trash that tried the tactic in the first place.
Just heard the radio national news while cleaning up after the kids washing up.
Howard campaigning in Queensland, audio has a woman telling PM that she is praying for him. Howard replied: thanks “I need all the help I can get.”
Never a truer word spoken.
Senator Heffernan is a vile hate-filled creature, who will be on the trash-heap of Australian political history.
If Glen and others are wondering why so many hate the Lib-Nat coalition this man is why. To have someone who is so unashamedly evil and who has so much contempt for other human beings in your party speaks volumes.
Hate is not a family value. Senator Heffernan is hatred personified.
It’s a dam good system used by Australia too keep everybody honest.
The AEC person counts the votes but they do it in front of a representative from each party. They are not allowed to touch but they are allowed to look. A completely distributed system that everyone trusts.
I think we have an amazing system. We use paper and we can have the result from most seats in hours, compare that to the corruption in the USA and the time it takes many countries to get a result.
Shaboh @ 557, those wikipedians are quick indeed….if there’s any wikinerds here, perhaps you could upload that wonderfully becoming photo of Gary Clark covering his face with the filthy libel in question.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Galaxy poll was for marginals and the National poll will be released Saturday
Hey at least we represent rural people better than your mob John Ryan, he’s a yokle but he’s our yokle!
Sorry, that was News Radio, not radio national
You know John Ryan, most people who actually have worked with Heffernan think he’s a good guy. His policies and actions stink though.
A guy I work with is a strong unionist and is fully on Labor this election (Kevin07 desktop etc.) but still thinks Heffernan’s ‘a good bloke’.
Well said Maurico (523). My thoughts exactly.
John Howard is a Coward – What’s with the change of name? The old one used to crack me up every time I saw it.
Lose The Election Please – What are you planning to call yourself after Saturday? Or are you just going to retire gracefully?
Glen 584.
Yokle? Were the KKK yokles??
What are you saying Glen? Rural Australians are vile, hate-filled people who don’t have a good bone in their body?? Is that why you think you represent rural people better?
You truly deserve everything that’s coming Saturday night.
Just on the pamphlet issue – it has been widely reported that Mr Chijoff quit the party today – yet we are told by Rodent, Robb et al that the protagonists were expelled. Which is true? Either they acted quickly and kicked these clowns out or they didnt – it seems that they didnt act quickly afterall. I hope someone from the press – actually presses this key question.
Darn, I may just call myself an unpronouncable symbol.
Pi @ 579 and ShowsOn @ 574, you’re both making pretty big calls….but I’m not going to doubt either of you because I really don’t know…I’m sure it will all come out in the wash, and whatever happened, it’s not going to look good for the Liberals. If ShowsOn is right, then it’s not a desperate bid for power so much as the beginning of the post election factional bloodbath a few days early. We’ll see, we’ll see….
LTEP @ 9.00pm. You are implying that the Dessicated Coconut has still a better chance of winning than losing.
You are not only the most pessimistic commenter that I have ever read but you are also the most ridiculous.
I insist you accept my challenge. Chicken!
That’s just Heff being Heff he’s a colourful character John Ryan.
Ryan why must you be filled with so much hate i have not done you wrong good sir?
LTEP: Bullsh-t. People who have worked with him know that he’s a vile sex obsessed cretin, constantly looking for gay conspiracies and thinks the Labor party is full of child molesters. His shredders will be working over time this today and tomorrow that’s for sure.
A lot of people said David Duke was a “nice man” too if you got to know him…
Heffernan is like a character out of the film deliverance. The sort of goon you’re likely to run into in the backwoods of the deep south. You’d expect a cretin like Howard to have a goon like this as his right had man.
LtEP @ 590, that’s the first bit of humour we’ve heard from you ever I think…:-)
Has to be done by the copyright holder or the copyright holder has to release it under an acceptable license.
589,
Yes, 2 members were expelled and/or left. The Radio National report I heard at 3pm said that despite Jackie Kelly being in Parliament since 1996 her husband had never formally joined the Liberal party so they couldn’t “expel” him. The two members leaving the LP were Egan and the husband of the current candidate.
If anyone believes that Chichoff didnt know what her husband was doing is seriously deluded. His statement was absolute crap. “It was all me, my wife is lovely and tolerant and I’m the ar*ehole of the family” beggars belief. No-one would take such a huge risk with their partner’s career without consultation. These people are professional operators, not impetuous amateurs. She would have said “I’m going to lose so you might as well try it. Just deny I knew about it if I get caught”.
I didn’t imply that at all. It is a big if… i’m not going to make assertions like “When Labor win” because it’s not what I think. I think the Coalition will win. That’s no secret.
I still think it’s more likely than not the ALP will win, based on objective evidence… but my feeling, adding subjectivity, is they won’t.
523 Maurico
Very eloquently said, and I agree with you 100%. I’m surprised how many of us here are from North Sydney. Fingers crossed for a big swing on Saturday night!
Glen, Heffernan is not a ‘colourful character’ for f*ck’s sake. He’s a short tempered, violent, racist, homophobic arsehole who deserves to be locked up for some of the cowardly things he’s said under the protection of parliamentary privilege.
I guess the interesting thing will be the daysd on which the polling was done, But at this late stage polls don’t mean much.
What you think the Libs will build up some momentum out of the Galaxy result?
Purleeze. Remember we are the one who care about polls. The public by and large don’t except to the extent they indicate who will win. You really think a majority of people will see the 52-48 result and think much else than, oh that sounds like Labor will win.
The newspoll is always imoprtant because when it comes out on a Tuesday mornig while parliament is sitting it pretty much framed the mood of the two parties in Question Time.
The polls got people looking at Rudd as PM material. They have been looking at him as likely PM for 10 months now.
I love polls because they give us something to talk about, but apoll that will come out tomorrow (or Saturday morning) will not in my opinon affect anyone’s vote.
If it did, you would have to assume that someone would be reading the paper thinking, oh I was going to vote for Rudd, but now that it looks like he’ll bolt it in I’ll change my mind.
Or, I was going to vote for Rudd, but now that Galaxy says he’ll only win by 4% I’ll change my mind.
Or, I wanted to vote Howard but it didn’t look like he’ll win so I wasn’t going to bother, but now that Galaxy has him trailing by only 4% I guess I’ll vote for him.
Really?? I mean really?????
Lead article in current online edition of the GG -
“Poll shows Coalition closing on Labor
Sid Marris, Online Political Editor
THE Coalition’s election hopes have been bolstered by a poll putting it closer to Labor than any time during the election campaign.”
Or you could just call yourself: ” The Guiness World Record’s Most Negative Labor Supporter “.
The fact Glen would even try and defend Heffernan just shows how debased the Liberal Party and its sycophants have become.
For shame.
Who is worse Tuckey or Heff?
Tuckey is a nasty person. Heffernan is wrong in what he thinks, but he’s pleasant in person.
Heff. Tuckey is mean, rough and nasty. But he’s not cowardly and not pure evil like Heff. Heff is in a league of his own there.
Heff is a sociopath. Tuckey a psychopath.
Saying that’s just Heff being Heff is essentially saying, he’s a sh*t of a person, but because he was in the past he can continue to be in the future.
And you want us to compare Tuckey and Heff??
Is this how far the Lib Party has fallen??
(I think we all know the answer to that is, yes)
MM – I know he lives in Norman Park with a great view of the city . About a K from my place in Coorparoo.
The GG is a joke – from the website:
“THE Coalition’s election hopes have been bolstered by a poll putting it closer to Labor than any time during the election campaign.
The Galaxy poll, published tomorrow in News Ltd publications, reportedly has Labor with a primary vote of 52 per cent and the Coalition with 48 per cent. ”
A *primary* of 52? Get it right, people, get it right.
Glen, asking that question is about as funny as Jackie Kelly’s “Chaser style prank” today. I’ll spell it out just in case you don’t get it: all of them make me equally sick.
Unfortunately for Sid, the Coalitions hopes have since been un-bolstered by appealing to racist sentiment.
Any parties in Parramatta?
Nick re Heffernan
You forgot sexist and deranged…
Oh cmon you’re telling me the ALP doesnt have head kickers pulease!
Heffernan:
The main characteristic of a sociopath is a disregard for the rights of others. Sociopaths are also unable to conform to what society defines as a normal personality. Antisocial tendencies are a big part of the sociopath’s personality. This pattern usually comes into evidence around the age of 15. If it is not treated, it can develop into adulthood.
Visible symptoms include physical aggression and the inability to hold down a steady job. The sociopath also finds it hard to sustain relationships and shows a lack of regret in his or her actions. A major personality behavior trait is the violation of the rights of others. This can appear as a disregard for the physical or sexual wellbeing of another.
Although these symptoms are all present, they may not always be evident. Research has shown that the sociopath is usually a person with an abundance of charm and wit. He or she may appear friendly and considerate, but these attributes are usually superficial. They are used as a way of blinding the other person to the personal agenda behind the sociopath’s behaviour.
609 JR- Sorry to have to tell you this but sociopath and psychopath are the same thing technically (using DSM4R). The newest and correct term is Antisocial Personality Disorder. And neither would fit the criteria.
*sigh*, does the GG have nothing more up its sleeve? it’s getting awfully tired….god I’m going to love watching them eat their words. They can spin Newspoll, they can spin Galaxy, but they can’t spin 13 million votes and the AEC.
Glen @ 607
Is that a koan?
Very Zen
{Heffernan is like a character out of the film deliverance.}
Kinda like the Luca Brazi of Oz politics. (for those who’ve read the”Godfather”)
Glen,
They are all as pure as the driven snow. Beloved of God. Each one of them a saint incapable of a bad word or an evil thought.
LTEP.
618 explains why Heffernan might be regarded by some as a “nice bloke”.
Aussieguru. I’m in Bulimba. The electorate of Griffith is a lovely part of the world.
are you volunteering?
People have been saying what channels to watch Sat night.
I feel it will not be that clear cut.
Channel 7 if Jackie Kelly still appears would be interesting for a time, even with mel and Koch (Koch will go on and on if Labour is winning how Rudd is his guy and he got him up, never realising he was being used.How quickly did Rudd dump Sunrise)
Channel 9 Oakes Kroger ? Richardson, possible arrests etc
Channel 2 serious but it has Minchin
and maybe Sky as it has 7 channels in its Active that are, so they say going to be live. Such as Rudds and Howards base etc. Only problem hard to swap out of active straight to another channel with back function on your remote. If you have HDTV I just worked out you can swap between two HD channels such as 20 and 90 and then change formats to PRs and if you have left it set at least on my TV to PR 6 on sky active you can click around the potential 7 channels on sky if they are any good and hit back and go back to a HD channel.
1st point:
if anybody thinks that the Kelly gangs antics weren’t implicitly authorised by the Liberal Party(nsw division) then you still don’t understand Howardism after all these years.
2nd Point:
newspoll will be closer to Acn than Galaxy. tomorrow will bring a cautious Rupe endorsement for Rudd via his totally innefectual GG toilet paper. Sat morning will bring a 55/56 Newspoll.
also why do you think he is called ‘heiferman”
tuckey is scraping the bottom of the gene pool
heiferman is the scraping from the scum at the bottom of the gene pool
Diogenes – see 618
It fits Heffernan like a glove.
Hands up…sure am !
# 617 Glen Says: November 22nd, 2007 at 9:22 pm
Not ones that rely upon bigotry, and the vilification of minorities, no. If they did, I wouldn’t support them.
Heffernan not a headkicker – Abbott is.
I can’t stand Abbott, but he should never be compared to Heffernan.
More polling details on Agenda in a few minutes perhaps..
I hate what the Liberal Party did but I think some of us are being a bit precious. I seem to remember the Labor Party in the Hawke/Keating years getting up to some mean tricks at election time.
Is Sol stupid? They don’t get it. The poll question on economic management is not about if Rudd and Labor can manage the economy it is who do you think is better. Of course the say the incumbent – but it doesn’t mean they think Labor cant do the job.
I’ll be doing booth work at Whites Hill + scrutineering.
Galaxy poll is good for Labor. People have been thinking Labor will win easily – this will put some fire crackers up some ars*s to actually make them realise that Howard is not going to go without a big collective push.
Pi @ 632.
Exactly. There’s “head kickers” and then there’s vile bigots who exist only to hate others.
LTEP
THeres an earnest naivety to you that is kind of endearing but does nothing for your analytical capacity. Your analysis of Heffernan is on a par with some of your poll analysis.
When does the GG make it’s “How to Vote” recommendation?
Well comrades,
You better hope AC Nielsen is right, because if Galaxy is right you guys will well and truly be regretting the Labcest on Saturday night. This could be a once in 50 year election a la 1961 in which a few poorly chosen Labor candidates in key seats could end it for Labor. Hasluck, Deakin and Robertson – for whom the bell tolls.
Cheers,
EStJ
Aussieguru. what will they be getting you to do on the day? i’m new to all this stuff.
In your dreams Edward.
Paul K: Are African Americans being “precious” when they won’t vote for Sen. Trent Lott? Are French Jews being “precious” when they won’t vote for Jean-Marie Le Pen? Will a Muslim be “precious” if they don’t vote for the Liberal in Lindsay?
Sean I’ve never met Heffernan. I’m merely going off what other people have told me about him. I’ve talked to people who have worked with him and they were surprised at how nice he was in comparison to other politicians.
You can be a nice person and completely reprehensible in your thoughts. A lot of Labor pollies got on well with Amanda Vanstone no matter her position on policy.
# 635 paul k Says: November 22nd, 2007 at 9:26 pm
Keating perfected the scare campaign. It is the one thing I’ll never forgive him for, because that is the reason we go John Howard. He did great things for Australia… but the thing he saddled us with undid a lot of that good.
Not all, by any means… but a lot.
My mate got interviewed for Newspoll last night. They’re doing more tonight, and they stop at 8.30pm WA time. I might be able to get the gist of the result by later tonight.
Rapid fire Paul K, we are pumped tonight arent we?
the lindsay affair is patented howard tactics. coming the day after robb’s google 13, it’s obviously an attempt to put the word terrorists on the front page by any means, taking the gamble that the backlash wouldn’t outweigh the benefit. if labor condemn it too strongly they might just fall into the trap. it’s about creating chaos with hidden simplistic messages against well-worn bad guys. and putting johnny’s emblematic heroine of the battlers out there doing battle reminding everyone how the labor party can’t even take a joke at the expense of a few towelheads. pure desperation. but IT WORKS. it will gain votes out there in the deep west.
howard at his amoral, yet spiritually pure, competition-driven best. he is the finest political animal this country has ever produced. utterly without scruple, yet totally committed the one goal, the one principle, the one commitment, the one belief, the one value, the one all-justifying raison d’etre – competition in all things. john howard is not human. he is a god. we are not worthy.
somebody kill him. whether he wins (as he probably will) or not.
oh ok. maybe i should send his office an email and see if they need hand setting stuff up saturday morning.
Do we know if the Galaxy and Nielsen polls were taken over the same period of time? (sorry if it’s already been discussed. I haven’t been able to keep up).
put a blue swimmer on the 2pp at sportbet ,
chose 54 – 55.99%
odds are 3 to 1
favourite is 53 – 53.99% paying 2.50
626
middle man Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 9:24 pm
Aussieguru. I’m in Bulimba
I am in Hawthorne very near Rudds it will be good to have a connection to the PMs of Australia beyond all the Barton St/Rds in the area. Did you know that the old QLDer on Quay and Oxford just near the Ferry Terminal was Bartons Daughter’s house, while he was PM and he stayed there on and off I understand.
The Editor at the GG has lost his head
if the new article is right, the galaxy poll is showing 52 for ALP on primaries, not TPP
WTF is going on
talk about panic
Paul K: Are African Americans being “precious” when they won’t vote for Sen. Trent Lott? Are French J-ws being “precious” when they won’t vote for Jean-Marie Le Pen? Will a M-slim be “precious” if they don’t vote for the Liberal in Lindsay?
Interesting that the betting markets haven’t moved in response to the polls.
I think this just reflects the fact that people are still expecting Labor to win, but giving Howard an outside chance.
Expect much bigger moves if Newspoll comes out tomorrow night… that’s the one the punters love the most, and it will bring more certainty as to which of tonight’s polls is off the money.
EdStJ and Paul K, let’s keep it civil. Remember kids, before posting, just think whether your two cents is actually worth William’s two cents of bandwidth.
Edward my son, if Johnnie wins I owe you a slab of beer. How’s that for hubris?
LTEP, you probably are a good bloke. But when it comes to predicting, you couldn’t tip water out of a bucket.
Sky Agenda is replaying the interviews with the leaders today. At least for the moment, there is no new information nor poll stuff. If anyone didn’t see either interview, tune in now, you are getting Rudd as I type this.
630 JR-Got to agree with you on that. But the Narcissistic Personality Disorder would fit better for Heffernan. It has most of those features but includes other charming ones such as believing they should get special treatment, bizarre mannerisms, a propensity for only treating people as objects etc. Most politicians are narcissistic rather than antisocial.
653 Darn – did someone mention earlier that Galaxy was last weekend, Neilsen was mid-week?
Nick, I’ve been a regular contributor to Williams growing pot of gold for months. I pay my own way as far a bandwidth is concerned.
637 kina – exactly right. The crucial question for the opposition is preferred PM, you can’t win if you don’t lead on that.
“Better” Economic management is like caring who which of your mates is better at driving a car, so long as you don’t think either of them will kill you, you’ll let either of them drive you anywhere.
We’ll see Centre
You’d actually be surprised if Labor loses on Saturday? Completely?
Toby, yes I heard Galaxy polled on the weekend and during the week.
Aussie Guru Rudd does not have views of the city. His house is the wrong side/end of —– Crest he has views back to MtGravatt.
Senator Vanstone was a nice person. Her policies were far from perfect, but she didn’t despise people in the way Heffernan does.
Unless you’re a straight white “Christian” male or a subservient opinion-less straight female, Heffernan hates you. No matter how ‘pleasant’ he may pretend to be…
paul k, i take it all back. your money really is where your mouth is.
By the way… the wikipedia entry for “The Lindsay Affair” was created by someone on…
http://www.ozelection2007.info/forums/viewtopic.php?id=2065&p=8
K Jin. Corner of quay and oxford….? thats only got the river front house which is brick, and behind it on quay is the block of flats. across the road is postwar number… with an old bloke who gets the sh*ts cause people park across his driveway all the time.
where is the qld’er?
VBOTW @ 460 re impact of the Lindsay thing – The World Today ran some interviews in the electorate that suggested a few people at least were deeply upset and it was changing votes. I’ve also been keeping an eye on the comments sections in the conservative press, and they seem to be running very strongly against the Libs, with only the occasional troll holding out.
Oops – URL for TWT is http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2007/s2098037.htm
Thanks for that Kjin – did you know that Alexander house on Old Cleveland Rd, Coorparoo was opened by Billy Hugh’s in 1919 !
MM I’ll be handing out how to vote leaflets to people as they enter the school. Then at 6pm I’ll be in the room keeping an eye on things for Labor as the votes are counted to make sure its all legit.
Jenny 674. Further to that, SBS World News talked to a lot of ‘average’ voters in Lindsay and all were aghast, including ex-Liberal voters…
I don’t think this will have nil effect. Australians aren’t as racist as some would have you believe…
K Jin and Aussieguru. Yeah no views. When I heard he lived in Norman Park, I assumed it would have been in the river front section in one of those very expensive places. but their house isnt over the top at all.
Interesting how everyone is FREAKED OUT by a 52-48 poll for Labor (even if it is believed to be an unreliable one). I’ve never seen a group of people so disappointed by a 4 point lead that reflects the lower side of the MoE, and is basically a worst-case scenario. Funny how the dynamics of perception work
I stand corrected Kjin. My place has a view of the City as well as Mt Gravatt.
““Better” Economic management is like caring who which of your mates is better at driving a car, so long as you don’t think either of them will kill you, you’ll let either of them drive you anywhere.”
Exactly. Because the question is always relative, that is, who is better than the other, it does not allow for absolute judgements. For example, you could think that both Howard and Rudd are crap at economic management but still rate Howard a little better than Rudd. Or you might think that they would both be great at economic management but believe that Howard is slightly better.
In other words, Newspoll never asks whether people think that Rudd would be competent. He doesn’t have to be the best. He just has to be GOOD ENOUGH. And if he is considered to be the best on all the other policy areas, then BINGO, Rudd outweighs Howard as a better prospect for PM, which is exactly what we have been seeing all year.
Newspoll are either hopeless when it comes to formulating and interpreting questions or they have deliberately avoided asking particular questions because they fear that it won’t look so good for Howard.
i’m with Jenny @ 673. Kellygate cannot possibly be a net gain of votes for the LNP. Although someone at LNP may have thought it would.
Will you be chatting to the Greens once you’re scrtuinising or the CEC lol?
Possum had a great comment on the Lindsay conspirators which has had me chuckling all day, along the lines of ‘These blokes have the IQ of an ugg boot.’ Says it all, really.
Christ, we even had boat people being picked up this week and yet they didn’t even make a splash on the election agenda.
Maybe “splash” wasn’t the right word to use there.
Jenny, Hear Hear!
680 Noocat- Exactly. I just wish morons like Sol and Dennis could read what you just said.
I went over to the Daily T sight to have aread of it’s editorial for tomorrow. Stupidly I thought, “Oh let’s have a look at what Piers’ blog is about”.
Wow. What a scary sight.
660 Paul K,
I dont think Labor will lose at this stage but as I said I do have a touch of the Mackerras curse about me, I picked Keating to win in 1996.
Ok this Wentworth seat is getting decidely odd:
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/minisite/election_article.aspx?id=327978§ionid=6046§ionname=minisiteelection
What is it with Sol Lebovik….every time I see him i’m astounded by how pedestrian his analysis is. Firstly he’s been going on about the soft vote for yonks and this stupid proposition that 25% of voters make up their mind on the day. This is highly dubious as Antony said tonight, but never have I heard him say that the ‘undecided usually break with the national trend’ which is overwhelmingly the case. In not saying this he’s got thousands of poor sod lib voters out there who are living off the idea that all these undecided drones are going to wander into the booth on election day and miraculously vote on mass for the rodent…
Secondly he goes on about economic management and how ‘this election is strange in that ‘better economic manager’ has not correlated with voting intentions when anybody with a passing knowledge in polls knows that there’s never been any correlation between the two. The encumbent is nearly always seen as the better econonmic manager (hewson is the only exception I can think of) Keating was way ahead of Howard in 96. The only real stat that matters in terms of voting intention is ‘preferred prime minister. Going on what he said tonight Sol doesn’t know this.
The biggest stupidity of all is that he seemingly believes that polls are irrelevant until one week out from an election. Whats the point then. Why do we have to listen to Sol in interview after interview tell us the whole thing means jack shit until these uncommitted drones stumble into the booth and scuttle the existing poll margins by voting on mass one way…
Sol needs to be put out to pasture.
hey does anyone know if A) there still selling kevin 07 stuff at all (i know you cant order them) and B) if the local branches are selling them.
Mr Howard would have had a strategy planned for today to: 1) Keep the WorkChoices MKII story off the front pages; and 2) build momentum going into polling day.
RaceHateGate certainly threw a spanner into the works. Reminds me of that old saying about the best laid plans of rodents and men …
Edward,
Well I voted for McMahon and Hewson. So what do I know?
Edward, have you been betting against Cornes again because her odds have blown out again after shortening a few days ago?
GALAXY 52 – 48 2PP BREAKUP
from Galaxy 52-48 Thread
#123
alj Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 8:20 pm
” Just had a look at the details of this poll;
1- The poll is a 5 state breakdown (N.S.W, QLD, S.A,VIC and W.A) of 4 marginals for each state. The sample size is 4k, 800 per state.
2- When adusting the swings with the respective seat weight in regards to the state wide swing, we find that the national swing is approx 5.4%, with a2pp of 52.6. This poll looks very simular to the poll in last weekend’s News Ltd papers.
3 -The remarkable things to note is a) They show a large swing in NSW and only a 5% swing in QLD.”
I can not guarantee the accuracy of this bloggers info because
this blogger may have erroneously got the weekend Galaxy state marginals poll methodology as it looks very similar
IF the methodology is the current poll’s 52-48 , its flawed
The old house it is not on the river. It had and has river views. Though I may be one street out. I meant Quoitts I think. There is a house on one corner, closet to the river, but not on it, that borders both streets(the old blocks place ?). Across the road in Quiotts is the old Barton house. It Now has a Brand new house right next to it, right on the corner that was built on part of its yard around five years ago. It is a big Qlder with wooden verandahs in a Art nouveau style. It was at the time of the Crushers Rugby League club also the home of thier coach Bob Lindner .
Just had the weather channel on in the back ground (yes, sad i know) and the guy was saying that the current rain system over NSW and VIC looks like the first signs of la nina… didnt someone on here once detail how much rain fell during the last Labor govt v the current govt.
Can anyone here give a credible explaination as to how Jackie’s Husband and the candidates husband did all of this without the wives knowing? Plus how the other guy who was a member of the Lib exec did this without any other exec members knowing?
What is a troll? I don’t want to be one..
I’ll be watching the ABC on Saturday night and I’ll be recording them as well to DVD.
I am happy to share / swap this DVD with others. If anyone would like to swap my DVD with their recording of 9, 10, SBS or whatever recording.
If you’d care to swap plesae contact me at:
steve.kernohan@qenos.com
Trolls are a fad doll from the 1980s
Coalition 5.10 on betfair.
.
.
Actually I fib. I was too young to vote for McMahon but my Dad did.
WAY off topic: Is there anything more frustrating than being unable to remember the name of a song and the band that said song is by?
Two days to go… PM’s campaign derailed by hoax pamphlet:
The husband of the Liberal candidate Karen Chijoff has also been linked and has quit the party.
Mr Rudd says the actions show the Howard Government is desperate and resorting to dirty tricks to stay in office.
“After 11 years it’s clear that the Liberals have nothing left to offer other than desperation, negativity and dirty tactics,” he said.
Two new opinion polls to be published in newspapers on Friday show Labor heading for a win, while Sydney newspaper The Daily Telegraph has urged readers to vote for Kevin Rudd after backing the Coalition at every election since 1998.
On a day when Mr Howard was making his final set-piece appeal to voters, he was distracted by the bogus flyer letterboxed in the Liberal seat of Lindsay.
http://www.livenews.com.au/Articles/2007/11/22/Two_days_to_go_PMs_campaign_derailed_by_hoax_pamphlet
I loved this one… I wonder if Downer is aware of the irony of his statement given Tampa and Children Overboard?
“Downer lashes out at Greens’ boat rescue criticism”
“Foreign Affairs Minister Alexander Downer has accused the Greens of using the rescue of 16 Indonesians in the Timor Sea for … political purposes…. ”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/21/2097450.htm
BBD @ 699 – you know what they say mate, the wife is always the last to know….
Huh? GG says:http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22802562-601,00.html
“The Galaxy poll, published tomorrow in News Ltd publications, reportedly has Labor with a primary vote of 52 per cent and the Coalition with 48 per cent. ”
Whats with all the stuffups today, Ozmedia?
Surely they mean 2PP.
Or DO they?? MUUUUHAAAHAHAA!
A troll one who makes comments with the intent of provoking an argument or flame war (i.e. Trolling for responses)
K Jin. Thanks for the history… i’ll keep an eye out for it. Its in Coutts street. I think i know the one. The new house next to it is right on Oxford and is a three storey bohemeth.
The only reason people think Coconut is a better economic manager than Rudd is because they do not know what it means, and they hear Coco and his cheerleaders say it all the time.
#690 Forget Kellygate – what about Beaglegate!!
BBD no – no one can, which is most likely why the candidate has not given an interview.
Well BBD,
Its like candidates in the ALP whose partners happen to be union bosses, state ALP secretaries, in parliament etc are independent feminist women who dont change their names, got there on their own merit and not once traded on their partners clout or status.
It seems the feminist virus has just spread to the Libs, thats all.
Burgey
finally someone with an arguement i can both understand and relate to- seriously, well done.
On a lighter not, it is also on the cards that these guys are having an afair with each other? might help in Gaol.
No room at the inn! Have sit outside with you lot.
Does anyone have the link to Laurie’s rant about the Lindsay Hobgoblins?
Funny how Howard has belatedly discovered Queensland. Up until the middle of this year he did nothing, was never sighted and now he packs up his tent and moves up here at every opportunity. The cabinet meeting where the infamous Murray Darling $10 Billion pork barrelling plan was drawn up on the back of an envelope was the first cabinet meeting here for 10 years.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22805579-5003402,00.html
Thought the most interesting piece ont he Lindsay Affair was the fella who was ont eh state executive being asked about hianding out unauthorised material saying “I have never handed out unauthorised material”.
Is he lying, or was he authorised to hand it out?
ShowsOn, have you tried typing some of the song’s lyrics into Google?
You’re kidding right ESJ?
You do know Helen Kroger is going to be a Senator after this election?
How about Lady Flo Bjelke-Peterson?
Exactly. This statement directly implies it was ordered from higher up. Probably Dave Clarke, and other ring wing extremist war lords.
Forgive me if this has been posted before. I have not read all of the threads.
http://www.apo.org.au/webboard/comment_results.chtml?filename_num=181224
Has anyone heard of this bloke before.
ShowOn,
Hum it for us.
LTEP,
1010
Lose the election please Says:
November 17th, 2007 at 1:02 am
If the swings hold up and the poll is accurate, Labor could win upwards of 84 seats. Really all these polls run counterintuitively. Ah well… enough for me!
I gave you the chance to call the election one way or the other at the time, but you didn’t respond, which i’d call either gutless or you’re here only to spread your crap as far as you can.
I think it’s time you pis@ed off or stop being such a wan*er.
Your pessimism is only feigned, and your comments often contradictory. Why are you here?
No-one who can read or understand plain english (surely you know the stuff, Possum and William write it every day and you comment on it every day) is capable of compiling as much crap in their comments as you.
At least Glen is genuine, which I and most others can respect even when we disagree with him so violently.
But you, you’re pathetic.
705 [Is there anything more frustrating than being unable to remember the name of a song and the band that said song is by?]
What song and which band are you talking about?
Paul K,
Has anything changed for u since the start of the campaign?
2 be honest my opinion of KR has improved for the better since the start of the campaign. I havent changed my opinion of the fundamentals but on personal opinion it has improved.
whilst the GG handpicking the Galaxy and forgetting the Ac Neilsen is quite predictable, its actually better for Rudd in terms of the undecideds if people think its close, otherwise they may want to limit the landslide
Likewise for me Kjun
719 Burgey- There should be some very interesting media interviews with culprits, wives etc tomorrow. If they all refuse to be interviewed the press will crucify them for not helping increase their circulation. Even the GG might work out that it’s a big story. They ran a small article on pg 7 about it today.
723 Curtains
Yes he is regarded highly by Adam Carrs Election Guide
http://psephoblog.wordpress.com/2007/11/21/labor-landslide-says-brian-costar/
ShowsOn, if it;s the one that goes la da da, la da dum, I can’t think of the title either.
Sorry
I couldn’t remember the lyrics. But that was a great suggestion. Anyway, I found it by searching for things on Wikipedia of all places.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tb2gjwq1WXg
Finland Progressive Metal
Amorphis – Silent Waters
Lionel I don’t recall too many contradictory statements. I put it to you that you just misread my comments.
In any case I don’t come here for anyone’s pleasure but my own. I reserve the right to be contradictory and annoy anyone I so choose.
Middle man
yes that is it, Coutts you are a much better speller than me. Yes the new house next to it is very much in keeping with the area-not , but I guess as Ben Cousins would say Such is Life.
Show on
I think you’ll find the song you’re trying to remember is ‘whole lot of love’ by Air Supply….
as the Dessicated Coconut’s spirits get lower and lower and the glares of Hyacinth get deadlier and deadlier, i swear the next time a journo asks Howard about handing over to Costello he’ll just lose it and say
“oh ffs the only idiot who actually believes i would let that gutless, pathetic Victorian be PM is the insipid Tip himself”
and then storm off set.
727 ESJ that you think that, is good enough of a poll for me. (the MOE might be a tad big though…)
Hmm Diogenes,
Boothby will certainly attract a lot of interest.
Only one thing is certain one of Galaxy/AC Nielsen is going to be carried off in a stretcher after this.
I doubt there will be much deviation from the standard SA swing on Boothby.
I find it extraordinarily ironic that the Lindsay shenanigans would in American political parlance be described as ratf**king. I guess the rat will be well and truly f**ked on Saturday night.
Look at past elections and you will see polls all over the place.
It’s likely that neither Nielsen nor Galaxy are correct. Taking a line down the middle might help. I’d like to see the primaries and how the preferences of the minors have been distributed.
Interesting that the Herald-Sun has come down in favour of John Howard while their sister paper is backing Kevin Rudd.
I wonder what the Sydney Morning Herald will say.
I really think the fake leaflet has taken a serious toll. It has completely taken the oxygen out of John Howard’s last major speech.
All voters saw was John Howard condemning members of his own party for being racist and lying. Not a vote winning look.
The fact is that Kevin Rudd is indeed on track for a win. Strangely the Galaxy poll might just have helped him. Voters who thought that Kevin Rudd was going to have a landslide win might have thought they had better not make it too big.
Now it looks tighter than it really will be he is more assured of victory.
Remember Jeff Kennett?
The bottom line is that every single poll this year has shown Kevin Rudd winning and win he will. I bet there will be some quite amazing results in some seats.
Maintain the diffidence LTEP
Re 700,
GG Says:
No worries GG
I simply wanted to know your source for the rumor that the Australian was endorsing Rudd and you had been extremely quiet since post 702 
……… So can you fess up, even in part or in morse code lol?
“Only one thing is certain one of Galaxy/AC Nielsen is going to be carried off in a stretcher after this”
Unless Galaxy was reporting “primary”, as the GG claims
Guess not huh.
The economic manager question would only be meaningful if both parties had been managing the economy simultaneously.
#698 Yes middle man, it’s well documented that it rains more under Labor than the Coalition. Hawke broke the drought. Fraser and Howard both began droughts.
Makes you wonder why farmers support the National Party.
And incidentally, rural papers like The Land have not been afraid to point out in recent months Labor’s record on breaking droughts, in a light-hearted way (dare I say “jocular”). Every farmer would be aware of it.
The Weather Bureau’s summer climate outlook, released today, actually predicted good rains for much of Queensland and New South Wales this summer, though Victoria was still forecast to be hotter and drier than normal.
Election day is forecast to be a very pleasant fine and sunny day in the low 20s in Melbourne. I was hoping for a stinker.
Edward,
I’ve been following Kevin’s career for years, from even before Latham took over and I’ve always thought he was Labor’s best chance. Everything I’ve seen since he has become Oppositon Leader has confirmed he is better than I thought, not to say there are not some things about him that concern me. However I thought he’d need two elections to get in and have been pleasantly surprised how well he has done to get so far in so short a time. The only thing that has really surprised me is the downward spiral of the Libs. Afterall I used to be a Howard supporter. Australia is going back towards being a moderate country and that’s where it belongs. I won’t go back to the Libs unless they move back to the middle ground.
739 ESJ-If that was true Boothby would fall, but Sturt wouldnt. My feeling is that it will be the other way around. Mrs Pyne really shouldn’t have sent out that letter. Everyone I know who got it, and almost all vote Lib, thouhgt it was pathetic and desperate.
Richard Jones. Level-headed and sensible. I agree that there is going to be some eye-popping results in certain seats. They’ll probably take everyone by surprise.
Anyone flicking through the TV channels in Adelaide during the 6 pm news? I wasn’t around so didn’t see whether the Linsday issue got any decent coverage, so would be interested in people’s comments.
This is similar to Howard’s bulltwang claim that interest rates will always be lower under the Coalition. It is complete non-starter bullcrap because it can’t even be tested.
Howard obviously didn’t do any science at school.
Just a bit of info re Saturday. I have the pleasure of living in Kevin’s electorate and will be booth captain, scrutineer etc. Received notice today that the Griffith election night party will be at Suncorp Football Stadium, from where the national tv coverage of the alp side of things will come. Take it that’s where Kevin will be bunkered down somewhere and where he will be making his (hopefullly) victory speech.
Remember, folks, the Libs are pretty sh..ty about losing and will be up to their old election day tricks during polling on Saturday. I have had to put up with this crap at every election – challenges about the number and size of signs, the distance from polling booth etc. They’ll be even more determined this Saturday, I feel.
Anyway, forget Galaxy for the moment. I usually just divide all the polls up (not very scientific, to be sure) and come up with a mean average. Have a good day, everyone!!!!
Forecast in Brisbane is rain. Glorious rain! I hope to be dancing in it at some stage!
its time to start thinking about what Lateline will go with
Primaries for both AC and Galaxy/ Anyone?
Looking back, I can’t think of much that the ALP could have done better. A few more positive ads perhaps, but then I’ve got no marketing experience so I don’t really know what works.
But really, they have campaigned brilliantly, and deserve the big win I think they’ll get.
This time in 04, I was sick from screaming about how useless they had been.
I was worried they wouldn’t be able to sustain it for 6 weeks.
They (Rudd) did it in a canter.
Triffid
Heaps of coverage.
I love the “better econimic manager” polling question, it has kept Libs distracted the whole time.
It’s like the “should we be in Iraq” last election. ALP got distracted by that one.
Mr Squiggle, supposedly Galaxy has Lab/Lib primaries equal. I’m guessing low 40s, 43 a piece perhaps?
Galaxy who knows… could be anything.
Aussieguru01
That is interesting about Alexander house I see that place while waiting in traffic on the corner of Hawthorne and Wynnum rd taking my kids to school. Up close it looks a older stort of building more in the vic style. I guess it was a WW1 soliders home for the poor buggers who had it hard. The least Billy could do was give them a place with a view to recover or die.
Speaking of views, I must be very poor compared to my fellow Griffithites I have only views of the Gateway and Bulimba graveyard. I have to go out my frontgate to see the city. I guess in years to come I will become known as one of Rudds battlers.
Second line should read ACN
Well, Galaxy is probably 43 all.
ACN probably 49-39.
Which will be an even more staggering distinction.
Gregbris. Suncorp Stadium? really?? that surprises. Thought he might have stayed closer to home. At least the Gabba?
How are we all tonight?
A lot of very nervous people, mostly Labor supporters! I don’t ever remember being this excited about an election, not since 1993 anyway!
Which way will Newspoll jump on Saturday? That might tell the story, because I’m not sure I trust either Galaxy or AC Nielsen.
gee it takes a while to catch up with this blog …
Maurico – totally agree, I could’nt have put it better myself, as others have said that pretty much sums up why I think this time around we will see the government change (and about bleed’in time !)
I would like to see the AWB affair intensely scrutinised by our new government in the coming weeks & months, there was some comment in Crikey & elsewhere that charges need to be laid before the end of this year if the matter is to be pursued any further (please correct me if I am wrong on this – does anyone know what the legal status is on this ?).
I have’nt heard Labor make any comment on what they would do about AWB once they are in government. I fervently hope that the Australian people will learn the full truth in ‘due season’ (apologies).
IMHO Vaile, Dolly & Lord Voldeshort have been lying their backsides off on AWB since Day 1 of the story breaking, they deserve to be put under the microscope in full view of the public.
Roll on 6pm on Saturday night
Voterboy not sure if you’re around, but I’d just let you know your post last night about your Lib staffer mater did the email rounds at my work today.
So ring him again!! lol
MM, I do declare that NOTHING will surprise me on election night (except if Howard wins) the Libs are in for a hugh THUMPING!
It all comes down to primaries really if the Libs cannot get a higher primary than Labor we’re f-ed in the a royally, we need a higher primary vote so if the polls stay true and Labor’s is so high its going to be tough, but i don’t like this sort of triumphalism of Rudd renting out Suncorp smacks of hubris if you ask me.
K Jin. I’m on the low lands in Bulimba. No views for me… well a bit of the Gateway from the back deck… but its not much to boast about. Rudd’s battlers…. too funny!
Grog @ 755.
I would agree with the positive advertisement thoughts.
Having attended the ALP gathering in Prospect in Adelaide last Saturday, I thought they could have worked with the video clip the ALP showed.
Both my wife & I thought it presented a very positive image, & if they could have cut bits of it into small advertisements, I think it would have been very well received.
Interesting results here on ninemsn’s Passion Pulse online survey.
Canvassing reactions to the statement: “People are using religion and race to divide an electorate at election time. It is disgusting.” ~Laurie Oakes.
The response of the Howard-preferred is noteworthy. The percentage of those disagreeing with Oakes’ statement are at odds with all other results.
http://pulse.ninemsn.com.au/result/74/
LOL Kjin I grew up in Morningside on Richmond Rd.
Yes, I agree that the correct questions to ask would be: Can you trust Labor to manage the economy? and Can you trust the Coalition to manage the economy?
If you asked this style of question about each of the main issues, eg health, education, environment, national security, you’d really find out what the true points of difference were.
My feeling is that, at the moment, most voters believe either side of politics can manage the economy and national security, have doubts about the coalition’s ability to manage education and environment, and don’t think either side will fix health.
What do others think?
Glen, your side needs a high primary vote to win, because you won’t be getting much in the way of 2nd preferences from the minor parties, with the exception of Family First.
765 Grog & Voterboy
I second that. You post did a lot of email rounds at my wife’s work today, gaining not quite equal amounts of grimaces and smiles. Excellent work.
FACT 1
Galaxy always- ALWAYS favours Lib/Nat more than other polls
FACT 2
Morgan always favours ALP more than Lib/Nat
Fact 3
ACN and Newspoll are always between the two.
775
That being said- what will morgan be if Newspoll is close to ACN?
It’s raining here in Possum Creek too. I’ll plant some rainforest trees tomorrow to commemorate the last day of the Howard government.
The place is called Forest of Friends and many are planted for friends who have now joined the majority, as they called it in Victorian times.
Why does Galaxy favour the Coalition? Because David Briggs is a Howard supporter?
Not really BBD. ACN was above Galaxy in the ‘04 election. (54/46 v 53/47).
776
The graphs to back that claim up are here
http://www.ozpolitics.info/guide/elections/fed2007/polls2007/#tpp
The Alexander House I’m talking about is in Coorparoo with the lace iron work. It is right next Coorparoo state school.
GG are you still out there? I want to know the details of the rumor about the Australian’s editorial tomorrow before I go to bed, please please thank you thank you
723
Just in case this hasn’t been responded to:
Brian Costar has an impeccable background as a political scientist and his commentary was raised i think over at possum
anyway, i read it not to fret about that galaxy stuff
would like to know more about how they do their work and suspect they do soft push polling
and btw, lets not forget it was galaxy earlier this year that started polling in SA showing massive shifts to Labor..
I mention that to actually reinforce my sense that they are a “poll to suit your narrative needs”
and having seen Briggs interviewed serveral times, he strikes me as a classic “chancer”….just the kind of hired gun Rupert loves….
and none of this is hurting the “galaxy’ brand…
again, as I have posted before, like a good holding company news likes to have several “brands” for different marketing segments – newspoll and galaxy are now 2 such creations that Rupe can leverage off in the marketing space, let alone the political polling space….
as Darwin said (or at least would have if he had been exposed to the 20th century):
evolution is just a subset of marketing….
just ask michael rimmer…
http://www.thespinningimage.co.uk/cultfilms/displaycultfilm.asp?reviewid=193
How did Rudd go on David Spear’s show earlier? I don’t have Pay TV!
The Herald Sun backing Howard is no biggy – not much fruit to pick there and they won’t do it with the glamour and fanfare that the Terror looks like endorsing Rudd with.
I think the Terror ran with something like “Labor set to steal office” in 2004 – which is credited with the even stronger than expected swing for the Libs in greater Sydney.
This DT endorsement is gold – it makes it acceptable to the masses that it’s OK to vote for Kevin Rudd. We’ve tried to tear him down, we’ve thrown every Piers Jabba the Hutt Akerman we had at him, and we couldn’t knock him down. He is worthy of our endorsement and he is worthy of your aspirational vote.
717 Mark, Laurie Oakes is second interview here.
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=327460
I think the problem for some of you on this blog is that you do not actually mix with anybody other than “left” people.
There is a group of people whose reaction to the leaflet would be for instance Muslims complaining about Liberals. Big deal. People believe both parties do sneaky things – it wasnt a good look for the Libs but not devastating hence my earlier comment to wait for the Galaxy poll before talking about a melt-down.
Secondly the Liberal campaign was all about nagging doubt and uncertainty. The Liberals only ever needed to move 2-3% of the primary to win. We are an awfully change adverse country – it might be enough but probably not.
Thirdly the disinterested centre may just woken from their slumber and decide things are good why change and “sleep walk” to a Howard re-election.
Fourthly the vote is not an endorsment of Labor its a rejection of Howard – 1) in too long and 2) workchoices. Rudd has done well to make himself an acceptable alternative but remember two iron rules which will be broken by a win:
1) PM’s get elected with substantial experience ie 20 years in Parliament ( 9 in Rudds Case)
2) Governments lose elections when the economy tanks – not the case here
Outside of the national polls, the State figures have been v.volatile. Remember a couple of weeks ago Newspoll was 59-41 in Vic and now apparently no seats will be lost?
I think that is some of the reason why people like LTEP and I think it is still possible for Liberal to win.
Tonights thread is great stuff, betterr than anything you’d find at Hugo Boss. Conflicting polls, loads of analysis and everone nervously flying blind!!!
Yes, well known scientific research proves that the rain in Oz is strongly linked to having Labor in power. It is because the Liberals produce so much hot air in government that they disperse the rain bearing clouds. That is why Malcolm paid one of his mates $10m for cloud seeding technology, to attempt to overcome this syndrome.
OZ has now reported the GALAXY POLL is 52 to 48 2PP
(refer their web site under “politics” and on LH side of page
The GALAXY POLL will be published in TOMORROW’s Daily Telegraph
Hopefully it is NOT a ” National ” Poll , but a further 20 seat marginal seat poll over 5 states which is less accurate as to overall trends in ANY state
Anybody out there wondering why Howard is so on the nose and why Labor will win up to 106 seats needs only to look as far as this speech by Anthony Albanese way back in 1999.
This grievance debate speech nails the Rodent as he really is, and how the rest of the country now see him.
It should be compulsory reading for all Australians.
For those that are well aware of this speech, I’m sure a re-read is worth it. For those that have never read it, take five minutes to have a look and I guarantee you’ll save it for years and/or spread it as far and wide as you can (as I have).
http://www.anthonyalbanese.com.au/file.php?file=/news/VXAVLCYUNYTTVYLJUTLZKWGQ/index.html
Howard Hater you are correct we were laughing when we had the DLP’s 8% of the vote to win elections against the ALP in the 1950s and 1960s, unfortunately now we’re suffering because there are no minor parties bar FF that give us preferences, bring on first past the post lol jj!
Howard Hater Says: “Glen, your side needs a high primary vote to win, because you won’t be getting much in the way of 2nd preferences from the minor parties, with the exception of Family First.”
Howard Hater, to Greg, this is “news”. To the rest of us this is “obvious”. Keep bangin on to Glen about it though, he might eventually “get it”.
Triffid 769, Agreed am trying to find it on youtube – it was very well edited.
Ron Brown it’s not a marginal poll. It’s a national one.
That should be “Glen” not “Greg” @ 793
Lionel
Albanese is a scumbag plain and simple his opinions do not represent middle Australia IMHO.
If it is to be Suncorp at least Lang Park is a Labour Sacred Place. A lot of pork has been spent on that ground that really is Labour Heartland. Ron McAullife did it for the game and all us true believers. Indeed I am surprised we have not seen Wally come out for Rudd up here.
Sorry to all the labour guys on this site, but we might be the home of Joh up here. But we are also the home of the Tree of Knowledge and the Legend of Waltzing Matilda etc etc . We are the spiritual home of the fair go and the idea of Australia.
STO 2008 Qld v NSW 3-0
The GALAXY POLL will be published in TOMORROW’s Daily Telegraph
SO after the front page endorsement. Big news story then.
Middle Man 762, I understand that there are state of the art Function Rooms at Suncorp and probably the place will be invaded by crowds later in the evening. It’s a good venue, too, for the national media to broadcast from. We’ve all been told to turn up in our Kevin07 shirts and caps etc, obviously to make it a great media spectacle. Think i’ll be too stuffed, after working a 14hour day, to go there. Probably collapse in front of the tele with a few drinks and watch the votes come in, and listen to all the party apologists!!!!!
Comments I expect to see on Saturday night:
Tabitha:
We wuz robbed.
It aint fair.
Glen:
It’s OK. Julie Bishop still has her seat.
LTEP:
But they haven’t counted the postals yet. Labor’s only 20 seats in front. They might still lose.
Generic Person:
F**k the lot of you.
I’ve got an IRC channel #pollbludger open at Austnet, so I’d be keen for any of you IRC fans out there to jump on and road test it. I believe that’s all the information I need to give you: I’m very new to this.
HAHHAHAHAHAAH this is hilarious coming from the champion of the racist and anti-democratic Ian Smith.
Hi George, got some news -
I got this letter from Kevin Rudd’s office today. I’d thought I share it with you all. In part.
When the ballot box close,the after party for the Griffith campaign team will be held @ Suncorp Stadium from 6pm. Please accept my invitation to come to the after party – &, if you like, bring a guest as well.
This will be a nationally televised event so I would encourage you to attend & wear your Kevin 07 gear.
Kind regards ….. Kevin Rudd.
Can’t wait
Paul you forgot Nostro.
Antony’s national swing is biased so its only swinging by 5% instead of 10%.
LOL
Glen – I’m not familiar with Suncorp, but at some of the new, large sporting venues there are big conference-type rooms.
I wonder if it’s on the field or in such a room?
Edward St John, it was not so much what the leaflet said, which was bad enough, it was the sneaky way they tried to rort the result. More important than that, it was a major distraction today, John Howard’s last big day, and looks like still running tomorrow. Liberal voters want to vote for honourable people and clearly some are not. Now we learn that this is not the first time this sort of thing has happened. People don’t like lies and trickery.
Woops, sorry folks – wrong link. This is the better speech on the rodent by Albanese.
http://www.anthonyalbanese.com.au/file.php?file=/news/RDVTSSSTRJDEBSXILHZOACFS/index.html
Who is this clown on Difference of Opinion thinking the “1 in 10″ who haven’t made up there mind will vote for Howard after considering all the issues?
Glen Says:”Albanese is a scumbag plain and simple his opinions do not represent middle Australia IMHO.”
I see you’re using both hands again tonight.
Glen,
God. How could I forget Nostro.
Grog, are you talking about John Roskam?
#789 The reason, of course, is that the Liberals have been run by the “dries” for a long time now.
LTEP,
Thansk again, good to know
I know the answer is not far off, but I am intrigues, why would News Ltd comission a glaxy poll, when their own Newspoll will go live in just over 24 hours?>
Unless Galxy focuses on some aspect not touched by Newspoll, why would they do it?
It’s John Roskon? Anyone know him??
772 Antonio.
Agree 1000% I’ve made this point before. By framing these questions as an either/or proposition the pollsters are not gaining an accurate picture of what the public think the parties respective capabilities are.
K Jin. Wally’s a bit too crook still. He needs our thoughts.
Gregbris. you mention crowd showing up at Suncorp. they’d have security for all that wouldn’t they? I imagine its no pass no entry yeh?
Steve 786 Thankyou.
The only place I disagree with ESJ on is the possible impact of the leaflet.
Prior to it happening I could tell a few of my workmates were wavering in support for the ALP. It’s brought them well and truly back to the fold. If this was carried out on a wider level it’s possible the ALP vote will be fortified against last minute nerves.
Middle Australia is not Liberal and conservative. Middle Australia has a heart, soul and compassion and is Labor. What you really mean is that Albanese doesn’t represent your views and those of the Liberal party. And the proper response to that is DUH …. I wouldn’t expect a Labor man to espouse Liberal party views. Those in Middle Australia who have been living under rose coloured glasses since 1996 are waking up and smelling the coffee. Why not join the crowd? Night, Glen
Sure Richard it didnt look good and Howard lost a day but its not a meltdown.
The point of this period is have any “soft”, Wavering or disinterested voters come home to Papa Doc Howard? I respectfully suggest that Galaxy may indeed be evidence of that. It may also be a rogue poll – but only 48 hours and we will know whats behind the curtain.
After all Kevin Rudd was a backbencher in September 2001? Prime Minister 6 years and 2 months later – pretty astounding.
This is what I wrote in Crikey about John Roskam back in August responding to his article “Has WorkChoices won in the IR reform debate?” :
I think it’s time we (the Australian Public) express some opinions about this “Institute of Public Affairs” (whatever the heck their name means!) which keeps getting an airing in Crikey (and elsewhere) – just like ACCI and Peter Hendy, who are now so obviously up the Liberal Party’s proverbial date, the Institute of Public Affairs is little more than a gang of right-wing scare-mongers, who believe in some alchemical model of the universe, a direct antithesis of everything scientific and universally obvious. Whether it’s “comments” on global warming (no, it’s not called climate change), the stolen generation (no it’s not called the displaced or saved generation) or “Union Bosses” (no they aren’t under your bed – just go and check!), their “research” (cough, cough) is laughable, purposely ignorant and downright dangerous. I challenge any of their “experts” to provide even one article they have had published in an internationally acknowledged, peer reviewed journal.
Paul, remember Cedric and John of Melb and Steven Kaye dont forget all of us!
MM – Booth captain has official invitation for Suncorp.
God isn’t Liberal
He is Labor
God has a heart
Thanks George.
ESJ
I will put this as delicately as I can. The Libs are about to “rogered” up their rear passage by a red hot poker. Your ramblings remind me of General George Custer who thought it a good idea to see what was happening on the other side of the next hill.
I hope you save your comments @ 787 to help you understand that you have no idea about real politics and convince yourself to stick to your day job.
i know its for volunteers and all, but i really wanted to see his speech. history.
Thankyou William for your tireless efforts to create a Pollbludger community.
Costello’s billion dollar hole… can’t be bothered checking, but at least the ALP is showing 2 can play that game:
http://www.alp.org.au/media/1107/mstre220.php
Why do Labor celebrations have private areas for the bigwigs and “open areas” for the peasants?
http://www.ipa.org.au/people/bio.asp?peopleid=68
Before joining the IPA, he was the Executive Director of The Menzies Research Centre in Canberra. He has also held positions as Chief of Staff to Dr David Kemp, the Federal Minister for Employment, Education, Training and Youth Affairs, as Senior Advisor to Don Hayward, Victorian Minister for Education in the first Kennett Government, and as Manager of Government and Corporate Affairs for Rio Tinto. His policy analysis includes reports such as Australia’s Education Choices (with Professor Brian Caldwell) and The Protocol: Managing Relations with NGOs (with Gary Johns).
Lateline on re Lindsay more more
GG LOL – Did you see Andy Landy has turned in his view today?
OMG they have pulled out Ruddock??????????????
It just doesn’t get any better
Aussieguru Yes I think we are talking about the same place opposite French st in Cooparoo on Old Cleveland Rd. I always thought it looked like it dated from the 1890’s but what do I know. Years ago I used to buy and sell antiques and I was always saying thing where older than they probably where. At least when I was selling them.
As to the Morningside end of Richmond Rd, I grew up in Cannon Hill we could only dream of such abodes.
Ruddock on LL. The dead walk amongst us.
Why do Liberal campaigns have authorised and non-authorised campaign material that is distributed by the same Liberal hacks?
If either newspoll or Morgan dont come in at 52/48 its over. I think these polls find voters and ask them questions and do the maths and that’s it.
If three polling companies find enough ALP voters and the fourth finds enough, just not as many- it is over.
If the four poll trend shows a BIG narrowing, it is still on and we have to deal with it on Saturday.
Edward St John, this affair has served to drive some waverers away in disgust. They may forget it in a day or two but there is only a day left.
I think you have to agree that Kevin Rudd has run a very good campaign.
He hasn’t been wedged and indeed used a wedge in his launch speech on spending.
The reality may not be quite the same as the perception but to people out there who don’t follow every nuance, as we tend to, the perception is that Kevin Rudd will be careful with our money and the economy.
This leaflet affair, at this time, is about the worst thing that could happen to a government that is already behind in the polls
837
It’s not Ruddock, it’s just a Liberal staffer with a face mask on.
ESJ- i thought you were Andy Landeau
I’ve heard Ruddock’s daughter has got her flight organised to come back to Australia after the 24th. I wonder if she knows something?
BBD Nothing so flamboyant just a humble independent voter.
Jackie Kelly is fantastic.
Paul Kelly will be using her as the first and last chapter of his book on the Howard Years.
(C’mon you know he’s going to write one!)
Where did you get from ESJ. It may not be as you paint…their is reason for everything. No need for cynical.
Yeah, Middle Man, I think it will be strictly policed – allowed to bring a friend with you on the night.
As for Glen, your infantile comments about hubris etc with the Labor using Suncorp Stadium are just too much. The entire football stadium – that is, football field and seating – is not being used – just some of the function rooms which are regularly used by all sorts of people for all sorts of events. Just get a life, will you, you’re a pain in the arse!!
ESJ
independant voter who works for a Senator?
Glen [Albanese is a scumbag plain and simple his opinions do not represent middle Australia IMHO]
I never said his views represent ‘middle Australia’. Your views do not represent ‘middle Australia’ either, but i at least have the courtesy to read your comments before I fall on the floor laughing.
Albanese’s words simply echo the thinking that is now obvious among the majority of voters in November 2007. Take a few minutes to read them and you’ll understand that his words are as accurate today as they were in 1998.
That’s why we’ll have a new government on Sunday. It’s a shame that the country has woken up so late, but as they say – better late than never.
George @ #822
The ACCI is nothing more than a business union, and Mr Hendy a dreaded business UNION BOSS.
#821 ESJ I think Bob Hawke became PM even more quickly than Rudd can. Big deal. The Parliament is full of old logs, from all parties, who’ve been there 30 years and will never even make it to parliamentary secretary.
I don’t think Malcolm Turnbull will be waiting long on the backbench before he either becomes leader (unless the voters chuck him out on saturday, which I doubt). And John Hewson didn’t take long to get to party leadership, and came very close to becoming PM.
Rudd’s state Cabinet office and diplomatic background isn’t bad at all for a potential PM.
Mind you, he’d be much better if he’d spent years as south-west Queensland branch secretary of the Amalgamated Tramways Union. He’d know how to be a “boss”.
Richard,
I dont think there are many people left in Australia who dont know John Howard is mean and tricky? Do you?
It didnt seem to be a problem in 3 previous re-elections.
Its the Its time factor, WorkChoices and Rudd being acceptable which will do him in.
I thought Difference of Opinion was quite interesting tonight. We had Roskam spinning the Libs, Hawker spinning the Labs, Gittins from the centre-left, Hewitt from the centre-right, and Margot effing Kingston driving a bulldozer through the lot of them. The only reaction possible to Margot is: far kinell!
Have the Liberal staffers passed around the cyanide pills yet?
852 ESJ
for once i agree with you entirely on every point you raise there
Kjin , at least we have the memories. I went to Cannon Hill State School. Did you know that Wally Lewis use to go there too?
So where did they find enough embalming fluid to prop Ruddock up? Or was it a fresh supply of virgin’s blood?
BBD –
The Senator is a figure of speech. Think of it as an old in joke on the blog amongst the long time commenters.
857- Marko
where did the virgin blood come from after the supply had obviously dried up over the last year?
well, didnt you see the boat person rescue?
he lives again.
LL concentrated on ACN poll
SMH backing Rudd!!!
So is The Oz!!!!!!!!!!!
854 [Have the Liberal staffers passed around the cyanide pills yet?]
They are about to get a rude shock when they find out how useless the jobnetwork is after twelve years of rhetoric about how good it is.
#447 –
“lol what about Gillard, Steven??”
Hopefully she’ll slowly dissolve into a puddle, Glen, all the while screaming “I’m melting! I’m melting!”
GG backing The Ruddster
I’d say the Liberal campaign raised some doubts but it didnt dent Rudd’s approval/disapproval rating – so it didnt really hit home, the Liberals did try to connect union domination of the ALP to union domination will stuff the economy but it seems the other questions in the polls show that didnt hit home.
852 ESJ,
It’s those three factors all right.
If Labor “over-interpret” the significance of this victory they’ll be struggling in three years’ time, IMO. But I think Rudd is smart enough to understand the real mandate he’s being given, which is:
- change WorkChoices a bit (and above all get rid of the name!)
- do a few pleasant-sounding things about education and the environment, as long as we don’t have to make any sacrifices whatsoever
- don’t stuff the economy
- in all other respects be John Howard twenty years younger.
Some of the team might think they’ve been elected for more profound reasons. Rudd will have to set them straight.
We will soon need a new “dead parrot” skit:
John Howard is no more,
He has ceased to be,
He has expired and gone to meet his Menzian maker.
He is an ex-Howard
He has passed on
He is a late Howard
He is politically demised
He is a political stiff
Bereft of political life he rests in peace (not)
He has joined the invisible EB choir
His lack of movement in the polls was due to him being tired and shagged out after an 11 year squawk.
(I have taken the liberty of examining this ex-Howard and the only reason he was still sitting on his perch was because he had been araldited there…)
1/ GALAXY POLL 52-48 IS unfortunately a “National” Poll
it will be published in tomorrow’s Daily Telegraph
2/ PRIMARY VOTE….Galaxy say Labor’s 2PP is down 2%
hopefully the 2% drop is not ALL in the primary vote
3/ Antony green ABC ‘calculator reveals a UNIFORM 2PP
ANYWHERE between 51.5 to 52.1 inclusive produces Labor 76 seats to 71
assuming a uniform National swing which never happens
GG: Stunning. I may not have to set fire to Holt St. after all…
(Oh wait. Did I just violate anti-terrorism laws?)
LOL George! You rule!
The Liberal Party have actually recycled most of their campaign from other older and more successful campaigns. The union scare is basically a direct repeat of 1969. Interest rates ‘04. Go for Growth you can draw analogies from We’re Not Waiting on the World.
Tony Jones just said that the SMH, the Terror, the Courier Mail and the Oz will go for Labor. The Hun will go for Howard, and the bloody Age will sit, yet again, on the fence. The Wah-Wahs will vote for the trains running on time.
To all the historians out there, is this unprecedented?
SO the Lindsay thing did come form a tip inside the LIb party…
Agreed Dyno,
That is exactly the big question. If he steps out of the Howard “parameters” he will pay big time.
I think it will be v.interesting if he is able to resist the ACTU wishlist on industrial legislation. That will be THE test of his first term.
I understand the ACTU has already formed a working group to redraft “WORKCHOICES” for instance.
Edward St John,
This time John Howard was not his old self. It may be because he did rely on Arthur a lot. Nevertheless he simply did not know how to handle Kevin Rudd.
He dealt easily with Mark Latham, less easily with Kim. Kevin Rudd is a very different opponent.
As I mentioned many weeks ago, the pendulum always swings. It’s time for a change. All the mistakes that have been made over the past few years accumulate. The big ones are going too far with WorkChoices, not ratifying Kyoto nor taking any real action on global warming, following George Bush into the Iraq invasion (not really an election issue interestingly) and mainly not being careful enough about spending public money.
Basically you’re right- Kevin Rudd, WorkChoices, It’s Time, but I’d add global warming.
ESJ
you’d be suprised how few people have seen the sort of union interferance the Libs are claiming will overrun the nations wrokplaces.
You might be more suprised to see how many have had a positive experience with unions, even if they didn’t join.
The union thugs topic has been discussed in every household and workplace since before the campaign began in earnest and the truth of peoples experiences have been spread around.
The belief is that the unions are bad scare campaign is seen as just that.
I’m curious do we feel the leaflet will have a bigger of smaller impact than the Handshake of 2004
I am shocked – the GG backing labor?!?!?!?!
ESJ @ #865
The Liberals scare campaign just made them look silly, desperate, dirty and woefully out-of-date. Anyone under 40 viewing those ridiculous “union bosses” scare ads would have been left scratching their heads, wondering what time machine the archaic Liberal throwbacks rode in on.
877
BMWofVictoria Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 10:41 pm
I’m curious do we feel the leaflet will have a bigger or smaller impact than the Handshake of 2004?
I’ve had to correct the grammar sorry
Big Blind Dave,
The Senator is a fictitious character whom Edward, Tabitha and Glen supposedly report to but he was invented as a joke by Edward.
Do you reckon Anthony Albanese’s linguistic issues are due to the whiff of formaldehyde he’s getting from the bloke sitting next to him?
Oh the senator’s definately not fictional.
874 [That is exactly the big question. If he steps out of the Howard “parameters” he will pay big time.]
Yeah, right only serve fifteen years instead of twenty you reckon? Once this circus is out of the way and Gridlock Campbell is dragged kicking and screaming from city hall, it will take years for the Tories to regroup. They are an unelectable rabble right throughout the country.
I think bigger, mainly because it has come so late in the campaign.
Dennis Shanahan and Caroline Overington wouldn’t be happy LOL
Stunning! Uncle Rupert must have put his foot down!
Aussieguru01
I went to Cannon Hill about 8 to 10 years after Wally.
Now 2 of my kids go to CHAC. Never in my wildest dreams would I have thought that a school on the wrong side of the Cannon Hill train lines would become a mini/growing/ churchie.
I never thought I would be back to Cannon Hill again. All though the 1930’s buildings in the front of Cannon Hill state with the terracotta tiles are a very interesting set of classrooms and building as a whole. Very Queensland in thier look and they have a great shape.
BMWofVictoria
This is the handshake, Birthday cake moment of the 2007 election!!!
RJ @ 875,
I think global warming was only an issue because it made Howard look old and out of touch.
Most Australians don’t believe in global warming in any practical sense. They might believe it in their heads, but they don’t think it has any significance whatsoever in terms of the lifestyle we need to lead.
Put it this way: if Rudd had said, “we’ll tax petrol till the price is such that usage has halved, and spend the revenue on long-term climate change abatement measures”, how do you think this election would have gone?
Howard sounded like a dinosaur and people didn’t like that, but the actual issue itself was secondary to most, I suspect.
881- thanks, i get it now. Haradene isn’t even in parliament anymore though is he?
What’s next? David Spears announces he wants Rudd to win? LOL
Told you so, guess it’s a cold day in hell after all eh!
Marko wrote:
So where did they find enough embalming fluid to prop Ruddock up? Or was it a fresh supply of virgin’s blood?
Marko and others I would be careful about what you say about Ruddock’s health – you might regret it later. His politics etc fine – just not his health guys. Just trust me on this.
Thanks William. Wow.
I stress this should be treated with caution.
13% swing to Labor in QLD? OMFG
The ALP polling a higher TPP in Queensland than Victoria is that possible or am I totally misreading this
Let It End – Indeed, I’m down there fetching cubes for the esky right now…
William, that would explain Howard in Queensland today and tomorrow, but it is largely a farewell parade.
Dyno, I think you will find that global warming is resonating with country people. They’re scared stiff about their future. They are the ones who will suffer first.
City people can buy their imported food, albeit it at a slightly higher price, but farmers will simply go broke. I have talked to a few who have watched their crops wither when they thought they could expect rain.
steve @ 884,
A couple of things:
1. Most people like having a booming economy. Rudd’s ability to keep unemployment at low levels will be vital to him.
2. A year ago everyone thought Federal Labor was unelectable. What changed things was basically just (a) a leader in Rudd who has run an outstanding campaign and (b) one very poorly thought-out government policy (WorkChoices).
The wheel can turn quite quickly in politics.
Ruddock on Lateline: ” I hear nothing, I see nothing, I know nothing”.
two more sleeps…two more sleeps…and the nightmare will be over
Phew – finally read to the top of the tread. I had some great insights along the way but have not forgotten them now.
Bottom line is that Galaxy and ACN juuuust fit in with each other if they are bottom/top of their range. But that event is unlikely. It does suggest the methods differ. So what to think? – which is flawed? Ah just friggin average the two and sleep well with a 54.5 2pp.
Bogangate will run into the last day of campaining so there is zero chance of any groundswell to push it back the other way.
sam old bullcrap from the Talking Corpse …
They’ve got Ruddock on LL because all the other senior ministers are at home defending their seats!!!!! OMG it will be a blood bath on Saturday!
LIE, when did you tell me that the Oz would go Labor? If you had I would have hung all manner of excrement on you. And I would have been wrong – and oh so happy to have been wrong! I’m in Kevin-0-seven-0-heaven as we speak – it’s very moist at the moment, I must say.
So if the Oz is going Labor, and so is the horror that is the Terror, what does that do to all this journalistic bias hoo-ha then?
BBD 876
There are many “whiskey priests” in the union movement, the political affiliation has corrupted the union movement from within.
I dont think Australians fear a union renaissance in the workplace they just see unions as alien to their lives, sad to say.
Harradine – LOL
The sad thing is most people in my seat will be dumb enough to again vote for Ruddock. Damn!
Ruddock on LateLine is symptomatic of a corrupt and unapologetic party on the decline.
BBD 876
There are many “whiskey priests” in the union movement, the political affiliation has holowed corrupted the union movement from within.
I dont think Australians fear a union renaissance in the workplace they just see unions as alien to their lives, sad to say.
Harradine – LOL
This was put up a few weeks ago
But now, in all his glory it really makes the point
May I present,
The outgoing Prime minister, John Winston Howard
In all his glory
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WzZ7vpBc44
I know those classes so well…pretty large!
The f***ing Herald Sun still went for Howard though. What a crock that newspaper is.
caution alert indded william
even our most trusted Poss told us ACN was going to be 55/45 and he was out by two in both directions
903 I don’t consider twelve years a short time. Unemployment will remain low as the baby boomers are hitting retiring age anyway. It was more than Labor finding a new leader they are being elected because of superior policy in a range of areas. The Liberaals are in decline because they have been hijacked by the right wing faction and forsaken the centre ground which Rudd has taken from them.
The Queensland poll figures make absolute sense. Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan are Queenslanders! Also they have had fabulous coverage in the Courier Mail.
Now the Courier Mail is coming out in support of their home team. Why wouldn’t they? Why would they want to back a fading New South Welshman?
It’s not impossible that Kevin Rudd can win government with Queensland and just a handful of seats elsewhere.
902 RJ,
Farmers may well have the view you describe.
But there aren’t many farmers.
So what is the summary of newspoll? Has anyone plugged the numbers in Antony’s calculator?
I, for one, believe Toby. For no particular reason. Just a gut feeling. And for me, it is the final confirmation, not that it was really needed, that it’s all over.
Next theywill bring Andrews out.
Yeah Steve 916
Go for the Whitlam hypothesis, that would warm the heart of the Liberals in the cold night of opposition.
priests
Any reason why Labor isn’t polling as well in Victoria as the other states?
Is it because of state government issues?
Come election night I will be in an internet bar in a small city in the middle of China cheering as Mr Howard and his conger line of suckholes go DOWN
I couldn’t believe the news about those idiot Libs in Lindsay when I found out earlier today. They will get the thrashing they deserve, not long now.
Why the caution William? it seems to agree with past newspolls – (Vic a bit low – Qld massive though)
914 steve,
I was referring to the situation one year ago actually, and I’d call one year quite a short time.
The policy differences in this election have been less than in any other election. It’s not policy that’s won it for Labor. It’s market positioning, which is quite a different thing.
Anyone have anything new on Sturt? Pyne is still going crazy filling our letterbox here in Athelstone.
Howard Hater Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 10:52 pm
The sad thing is most people in my seat will be dumb enough to again vote for Ruddock. Damn!
You may be rather pleasantly surprised on Saturday night Howard Hater.
BBD 876
There are many “whiskey priests” in the union movement, the political affiliation has hollowed the union movement from within.
I dont think Australians fear a union renaissance in the workplace they just see unions as alien to their lives, sad to say.
Harradine – LOL
Stan S
green computer says tobys rumours amount to around 90/58 but i had to call WA 50/50 cause thats the trend and tas/act/NT 4% swing cause thats what anthony does
Wonder why the Lib ads are hitting the farifax websites so hard, and the ALP going big on the newsltd ones?
just watching ruddock on lateline…at least he isn’t a smarmy or yelling over the top of others as the tip, downer, connan etc……..he actually sounds semi reasonsable next to the other liberals
I had the pleasure of speaking to Mia tonight. It’s as close as buggery. She was out campaigning today with Gillard and Mike Rann.
920 Nothing will warm the heart of the Liberals in the cold night of opposition, they will just have to fight each other till they get themselves sorted out.
George at 822 etc – assume you came across this howler in the Age from Alan Moran:
“While electricity molecules are the same no matter whether they come, from coal-burning generators, hydro or wind, the source of the product brings quality variations.
“Hydro facilities are particularly valuable electricity because their power can be turned on and off when needed.
“But hydro can run short of water, its basic fuel.”
Amazingly enough, the IPA is still reproducing this rubbish on its website http://www.ipa.org.au/files/news_1397.html
Harry, I wouldn’t bank on it! And I doubt Labor has much chance of winning North Sydney either. The North Shore of Sydney won’t move that much.
The only state issues are the Teachers are on strike and the Nurses had a nasty but short dispute with the State Govt.
Yeah, but has he fallen into a trap of giving a law lecture? You know, explaining the difference between illegal and unlawful and all that?
Dyno there are a few farmers in the seat of Page and Richmond. They are not happy. Watch Page swing to Labor.
Don’t you love Ruddock – I KNOW NOTHING!!!
I didn’t ask and I wasn’t told who the party members were.
I am better informed than the first law officer in the land LOL…
If the Newspoll figures are correct it would be a 14% swing in QLD and almost nothing in NSW.
There seems to be an enormous level of volatility in Newspolls state figures, why?
Twas last Saturday evening just before you ran down the servo for the papers. And you did hang excrement on me Ms Twain, something about being a cold day in hell I believe.
NO ONE OUTSIDE WILL GET IT.
But it is great to be a Queenslander !
I am sure it is part of what drove Rudd on.
LTEP,
You have a wicked sense of humour.
BBD @ 929 Ta very much. Vic at 52-48 seems anomolous, is it becuase they like Smirk. I think the Qlders like Rudd but also are voting against Smirk.
915
Just on the Queensland thing – I believe the hometown facotr will be huge in Queensland. Could be worth a couple of seats. I posted this article on the hometown factor a couple of weeks back on Fair News:
http://fairnews.com.au/content/view/54/1/
Rarely has there been a case when the hometown factor has NO effect.
ESJ
My honest opinion is that the union movement have out campiagned the ALP in marginals in this election. They have the skills and man power to go it alone, should that ever eventuate. They could probably amass the funds too in they tried hard enough.
Whether I think that would be a good or bad thing i will save for another day perhaps
A 2PP vote of 56% for Labor in QLD would be amazing: with that, Kevy could virtually get the 16 seats in one state LOL
Did someone beat me to that?
ACN Primaries are 48/40 from a reliable source
Those Newspoll results look like they give 94 seats in Antony’s calculator…
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=state&national=0&nsw=5.9&vic=3&qld=13.1&wa=3.4&sa=9.4&tas=5&act=5&nt=5&retiringfactor=1.5
steve @ 933,
Right and wrong.
Right that the Liberals will have a hard time because there won’t be too much they can do themselves to make inroads in the short term.
Wrong to assume that a Labor Govt, which even its strongest advocates would have to admit will be an unknown quantity in terms of Ministerial competence, won’t give the Liberals some opportunities to improve their position.
Time will tell.
52 in WA- WOW look out Kal and Canning
The 52/48 in WA is (Lib/ALP) by the way.
showson…yeah ruddock did just sound like a boring lawyer, but i take boring and semi reasonable to the loony raving union stuff the liberals usually dish out……at leats i don’t end upo throwing stuff at the tv
Correction ESJ: it’d be a 5% swing to Labor in N.S.W.
William: 52-48 in WA? There goes the Rodent’s hopes of winning Cowan and Swan.
William, is the WA result ALP or Libs ?
I agree, the Qld swing will be ferocious.
Commentators will be ’shocked’
ShowsOn @ 932
Was that for the polling day volunteers meeting? I was also there.
I noted from a previous post of yours that you will be at Highbury South – I am also helping & scrutineering there (so you’ll see my name on the letter you would have also received?).
Sign of the times I suppose when you consider a 6% swing delivering 7 seats nothing lol.
OMG
Ruddock is alive. Just.
The hometown factor would be very much stronger in Queensland than New South Wales. It’s almost a different country.
Dyno,
A new government is of course a clean slate, it would be ironic if IR turned out to be Rudd’s poisoned chalice too hey?
Ministerial selection will be key too, does he really have people like Kim Il Carr, Ferguson 2, Bishop etc in his Cabinet or does he go for new blood? Will he be strong enough to roll factions?
946
Scotty
I am certain the QLD factor will count.
When you fart around your own backyard the smell always attracts the local crowd.
So we have Newspoll and ACN…WHAT IS GOING ON WITH GALAXY?
So same ole same ole.
Either Galaxy are geniuses, or they have had one poll that slightly favoured the LNP more than usual. Either ACN are geniuses or they have had one poll that favoured the ALP more than usual.
IF newspoll or ANC had dipped, I would give the Galaxy poll credence. If Galaxy of newspoll had gone up I would have given the ACN credence.
5% in NSW – well that would be:
Eden Monaro,
Parra
Maybe Page,Dobell, Wentworth, Bennelong
William – is the 52/48 result for WA a Coalition lead or a Labor lead?
Galaxy polled in a bunch of safe Liberal seats, I bet!
Can one of you Rudd Lovers explain why Rudd has taken to the last 2 days of the campaign to lodge more than 100 policies with the Treasury Department for costing?
967
Richard Jones Says:
November 22nd
It is a different country.
Though as in the US all u mexicans are changing things.
ESJ: you’re forgetting Lindsay
Glen 975 – because he can get away with it.
OK – i just got home from a holiday and I seem to be “Toby” in pollbludger? WHat the hell?
Glen, to avoid any costing problems popping up with too much time in the campaign left.
Might be time for me to move back to QLD.
Is this a joke?
So much for Krudd being a fiscal conservative.
“Either ACNielsen or Galaxy are going to look at bit silly come Sunday.”
If the true voting intention is 55% 2PP to Labor then both ACN and Galaxy would have the “true” population value within their MOEs (respectively about 2.6% and 3.2%).
Howard Hater Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 10:58 pm
Harry, I wouldn’t bank on it! And I doubt Labor has much chance of winning North Sydney either. The North Shore of Sydney won’t move that much.
I am thinking laterally. There is a lot more change happening here than is being noticed. The make Berowra campaign being run in the bottom half of the electorate over the tunnel is having an effect. There was a nearly 4% swing to labor in 2004 and a number of other factors are helping. If it did become marginal then the by-election within a year (and I would actually bet on that at least) will be a totally different game.
Well if its 14% in QLD – its goodbye Brough, if he survives the Libs will have to make him deputy leader.
Huh?
ESJ,
I think, as with all new Governments, there’ll be upside and downside surprises.
My money would be on people like Roxon, Tanner and Garrett to surprise with their ability. And Gillard to be the most high-profile (and noisy) flop.
Kev himself will be the key, though. I must confess I have no idea how he’ll handle the pressure of government. I’d be pretty confident he’ll run a good campaign in 2010, but there’s about two years till that starts in earnest …
Glen, because no one gives a damn about the charter of budget honesty.
Everyone knows it’s a joke.
Once the pre-electon financial outlook is released, the rest is up for grabs.
The only point of the charter is that there are no more Howard or Beazley black holes.
LIE, I said then that I was happy to eat my own words that the Newsie kids would never go the Rudd, but I can’t remember you having anything to do with it. Last I remember you were telling me that all journalists were right-wing scum. Now, while I agree that all journalists are scum, being one myself, the right wing adjective was just a bit too much for a lefty like me.
I’m now actually tending to think Kev might win this one. So many disappointments in the past, so many beers on Saturday night to wash it all away.
K Jin one in three cars at weekends in Byron Bay have Queensland plates. Queenslanders are buying properties here for millions because we have water and the properties are luxuriant with rainforest trees.
Don’t forget the Courier Mail as well
And yes, I’m sure that now the editor has declared we can expect balanced reporting and integrity in future from Milne, Farr, Albrechtson, Shanahan, Piers et al, AS IF LOL.
Harry: I live in Thornleigh, and there’s been zero election campaign in this end of Berowra. The Labor Party hasn’t even letterboxed this area, unlike in previous elections.
When the Libs get annihilated on Saturday, what odds on the entire party nation-wide dissolving into an internal feeding frenzy? Last group standing will be the loony right fringe, leaving Labor unchallenged in the centre, with Greens as the Opposition on the Left.
Sorry, Toby?
Anyone heard which way the Tiser is going?
The GG’s endorsement of the Labor party is nothing but the gutless flailing of a paper scared of rightfully being relegated to irrelevance under the prime-ministership of a party that it has relentlessly bashed for 11 years.
It is their right to employ right leaning journalists, but to claim to favor Rudd in an appalling attempt to curry future favor should be seen as the last desperate act of the worlds most oversized toilet paper.
Um what is going on here i am a frequent pollbludger visitor but have never posted, now its telling me i am toby?
981
Will From Kooyong Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 11:06 pm
Might be time for me to move back to QLD.
You could be right. If u move up here and look hard enough you can just make out forever.
Prehaps the boom will last another 40 years and so we are like CA USA in 1920.
There must be more than one Toby on this board LOL
Sorry, what’s telling you you’re Toby?
Erytnicam @ 997, You are spot on!
Glen,
The Government lodged their policies too late for Treasury to cost them properly so why should Labor. Why should Labor’s be the only ones not to be costed correctly. If Labor had put them in at the same time or before the governments, then the government would have forced Treasury to drop everything and look for weaknesses in Labor’s policies while not looking at any of the government’s.
Will was the 52/48 was ALp or LIb favour?
I was interested to hear Adelaide ABC radio this morning that several fire engines had gone out distributing leaflets in the city and down my way in Boothby, Kingston – Announcers, Matt and Dave had an interesting interview with the union leader who said they did not need his permission to do it – This seems a bit suspect and they all said they were doing it in their own time? Union Boss said it was actually more efficient as the firies were all ready if an alarm went off – they could go straight to the fire, the ones that were actually working – seems they have a lot of time on their hands.
I would be more worried if the police or army started to do this.
The Oz supporting Rudd makes a lot more sense if Newspoll ends up 54/55/56 to the ALP – Murdoch wouldn’t be taking any risks…
Toby? Toby? Toby Wong?
Has Quentin Tarrantino joined pollbludger?
Glen, we all know the Department Of Finance has been bullied by Costello to fabricate a black hole in Labor’s costings.
Under “Leave a Reply” it says i am Toby. I am not Toby. Has someone hacked into my computer or what the hell?
paul k bull butter we had ours in on time!
Queenslander!! look a 2pp of 53% would be amazing and I think more likely up north… will still deliver all we need… the Lindsay affair didn’t resonate as much in Qld as it did today in NSW though.. I wouldn’t be too concerned about NSW… after today it will shift… the simple matter is that we will know what will happen before qld closes because it is almost inconcievable not to end up with at least 6 in Qld… 5 certs between SA and Tas.. plus NT… if we pick up even 2 seats in vic and more than 4 in nsw the LNP are toast and the qld numbers will come in and it will be icing….
If Newspoll has already done their poll, why would they wait until Saturday to publish it?
F*ckin’ Charlie Chan!
K Jin: Where in QLD are you. I grew up in NQ, I was born in Atherton but spent 20 years in Townsville
I see on the Galaxy 50-50 thread there are only 139 comments. Face, it you LNP guys, like hanging out with the cool kids!
Did I hear properly on LL that the SMH has endorsed Labor for only the third time in ther paper’s history?
That’s more astonishing than a lot of the others, even the GG imo.
52.1 % ONLY GIVES LABOR 76 seats to 71 on Anthony Green’s (ABC) calculator
(the remaining 3 to ex liberal independents)
if the 2 PP is uniform
52.1% DOES NOT DELIVER 20 seats ,not even 10 , just 5 !!!!!!
on as uniform swing of 4.8% (ie. on 52.1% 2PP)
52.1 % THEREFORE WOULD BE A CLIFFHANGER
because there are approx 12 seats requiring a VERY small swing ,
and if the swing was 4.8% and it is NOT in PRECISELY the next group of 8 seats
then Howard wins
This is why Galaxy Poll if correct gives Howard exactly a 50 / 50 chance of winning
IF the 2PP is 53% minimum then Labor is guaranteed of winning
Nice resevoir dogs quote Will.
The WA Newspoll question though?
We need dullards:
http://www.livenews.com.au/
It’s tempting to crave exciting and charismatic people in all aspects of life, but, as Tim Brunero explains, we need dullards – especially in politics.
You want someone like John Winston Howard who lived at home with his mother until he was 35. And then moved in with Janette.
Glen you only had 1 policy to submit: SCARE 101
Glen, I think it is to show that Labor actually has policies while your side has tired old rhetoric which is proving unattractive to voters.
For once the SMH supports the views of its readership! Woohoo!
WOW Gary Humphries is gone in the A.C.T!
He is telling people that the government will lose, so they should vote for him in the senate!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22803835-5014046,00.html
By the way William, just to let you know I don’t tip.
Dyno as Ludwig said about Gillard “its all about the hair”
WHATS GOING ON
Steve it shows Labor aren’t interested in accountability or in exposing their lie that they’ll be fiscal conservatives.
Still we have the West (Cowan and Swan) and the Hun what about the Tiser or the Mercury?
Ron – 76 ALP seats does deliver over 20 seats. A win of 5, but 20 all up.
Toby as Harold Wilson said to his cabinet:
“I know what’s going on”
Then
“I am going on”
991
Richard Jones
You are right, u guys should get out of NSW and get with the future. I believe there has long been a political movement form Nothern NSW to merge with QLD Never got anywhere, so we are just going to let the market work it out. Buy up and then vote.
Identity theft on the board? I better call the terrorism hotline!
Howard Hater Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 11:08 pm
Harry: I live in Thornleigh, and there’s been zero election campaign in this end of Berowra. The Labor Party hasn’t even letterboxed this area, unlike in previous elections.
No they have not the resources because all the bucks are going to marginals but I understand that some disaffected libs p-o with Ruddock on the tunnel have letterboxed with a put Ruddock last message to some effect. I had a chat with some longtime Labor souls who have been manning shopping centres and they have been pleasantly surprised by the change in their reception to say the least.
1027 Too little too late Glen, the Party is over and the circus has moved on.
GLen,
In on time according to Howard but not according to Treasury.
What the hell are you talking about, Toby?
LOL, then you must have been on the plonk because if you go back and check we actually came to a mutual compromise on that score. Nevermind.
Strange how Humphries is stealing the Greens’ line about an “insurance vote”. lol
fool.
paul k – bull butter
Harry, good news! Nobody has campaigned in Thornleigh, but this is very safe Liberal territory. I presume Labor has done more work up towards the Hornsby end of the electorate?
I think Toby’s a wind-up and is now pretending that someone’s hacked into his computer and written stuff as ‘Toby’.
Sounds pretty lame.
Have the Oz, the SMH and the Daily T ever ALL endorsed Labor in the same Federal election before?
Cheers
Rod
Someone has hacked into my computer, or my mate has played a shithouse trick on me.
Toby,
who are you usually?
I think it is hilarious! His slogan is “Screw the government – but vote for me!”
HH @ 911
Was in Berowra this evening (near Liquorland strangely enough). The ETU have got their Rights at Work posters up around there and the train station like you would expect to see christmas decorations around Santa’s grotto at DJ’s
It’s possible to have more than one person here with the same name.
There were 2 Evans here for a while, until I changed my name to Howard Hater.
You’ve all probably seen the latest nicholson animation, but if not:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/opinion/animations/0,25199,20,00.html
Tabitha says,
SMH says vote for Labor
Sydney Telegraph says vote for Labor.
We have the Oz.
Oh Shit!
Harold, there’s a ute near my house with anti Howard/Rights At Work stickers all over it. At least another Labor voter.
I think Willam also knows his IP Adress as well
ESJ,
I just think Gillard’s incredibly over-rated, based on what we’ve seen so far.
And in particular I would note that just because someone is a good debater who can pull things apart (like any good plaintiff lawyer), that doesn’t mean they are a good decision-maker who can keep things in perspective (what you need to be a competent Minister). Two different skill sets and personality types, I’d have thought.
Im no one usually! Ive never posted. i started reading these forums and site a few weeks ago. Apparently I am Toby, and I also have received over 500 spam emails on my email. I reckon im getting hacked or something.
Forget the polls, forget the betting markets, the fact Labor are getting so many endorsements is the strongest sign yet that they will win.
In most cases the editors are just jumping on the Labor bandwagon, but I can’t remember the last time they got this support. 1987 perhaps?
HA HA Yes, Dan Murphys was doing great business this afternoon when I nipped in there. There’ll be a lot of alcoholic beverages consumed on Saturday night.
theres is one and only one blacklight
It wasnt me William I promise. No more “STROPS”.
Hard to believe the CM endorse the ALP for only the second time ever.
Wonder when the last time was?
Ron, why don’t you put that rant in the Galaxy thread.
Thanks.
1055 -ShowsOn
Dont read too much into newspaper endorsements, thats just NEWS covering itself for a Labor win, nothing more.
Let’s guess.
The West Australian will go for Howard
Adelaide Advertiser?
Toby, can’t you just edit the field in your browser and change it to the name you want? I think it will automatically remember the last name you used based on browser cookies.
Toby, you can change your name and keep the same email address as before.
My guess would be the Advertiser will go for Howard.
Its been barely readable for a long time now.
hooray for the bandwagon
Yes Howard Hater, the West is backing Howard.
Dyno
I agree I think Roxon will make a excellent minister. I think Combet and Shorten will be show ponys/media tarts.
I think it would be a great sign if Rudd crunched a few non-aligned people in early too – like Mike Kelly, and the Maccas guy.
Toby
, for what it is worth I received an email from Ebay today congratulating me on my successful purchase of a pair of ice skates,(!) using my Greens email address.
Maybe Janette is trawling the sites to do damage to anyone who has oicked on John.
Beware PB’s… look at what Jackie Kelly can do with a printer and a stupid husband.
K Jin there was a secession movement for northern New South Wales as a seperate state. Didn’t get up.
Our environmental laws are much tougher than yours and the kind of developments allowed in your state simply would not be permitted here. That’s one of the reasons real estate prices around here are going through the roof. It’s becoming a rich enclave with no high rise and no more subdivision of rural land. The forests here are increasing by 9% a year.
We have koalas on our place, as well as platypuses, wallabies, possums, bandicoots and hundreds of small and large birds. I’ll leave this place in a box, a cardboard box by the way.
Well the Sunday Crimes went for Howard last weekend.
its lindsaygate…its pushed it too far…
Yeah i think i can but ive just read back and someones been posting under this name. Is there an email address for the site admin or postmaster? and my name isnt toby! !
They would only bother covering themselves if they thought there was a good chance Labor would win.
They didn’t do it last time because Latham had no chance.
I’m not saying they WANT Labor to win, just that they think it is likely enough to endorse Labor.
I can’t believe my cheap joke at Toby’s expense was moderated out of existence?!?
Who will the Northern Territory News endorse?
1052 Dyno
Agree with you on Gillard. But it won’t matter if she’s got good people creating the policy for her (something that was obviously missing with Medicare Gold).
If a pollie is a good debater, can memorise the key lines, think on their feet, and trust their team to come up with the ideas (and not be overtaken by their ego) that’s a pretty good mix. A long shot I admit, particularly on the ego question.
Will From Kooyong Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 11:12
First I am not from Beattie country
Where am I ?
I am a Rudd Battler
I do not have 360 degree views
Like Rudd who is within 500 metres of me I have only selective views.
I am stuck in Hawthorne.
(not) Toby – change your name and then we can call you something else!