Not sure where he heard this, but the more than reliable Possum Comitatus hears tomorrow’s ACNielsen will show 55-45.
UPDATE: Now the Channel Seven News tells us it’s 57-43. Either ACNielsen or Galaxy are going to look at bit silly come Sunday.
| TWO-PARTY | PRIMARY | ||||
| ALP | LNP | ALP | LNP | ||
|
Nov 23
|
57 | 43 | ? | ? | |
|
Nov 16
|
54 | 46 | 47 | 43 | |
|
Nov 2
|
55 | 45 | 48 | 41 | |
|
Oct 19
|
54 | 46 | 48 | 42 | |
|
Oct 6
|
56 | 44 | 47 | 40 | |
|
Sep 8
|
57 | 43 | 49 | 39 | |
|
Aug 11
|
55 | 45 | 46 | 41 | |
|
Jul 14
|
58 | 42 | 49 | 39 | |
|
Jun 16
|
57 | 43 | 48 | 39 | |
|
May 19
|
58 | 42 | 48 | 39 | |
|
April 21
|
58 | 42 | 50 | 37 | |
1,408 Comments
All hail King Possum
Much more in line with expected.
Fascinating to see the media spin on all this!
One says 55-45 and the other says 52-48… shows that the polls are so unreliable, really.
Possum knows all.. now chill out my labor voting friends. General Wenck is not going to bust through.
Some polling companies will have some major egg on their faces
Oh please let it be so.
55-45 is a malling… i can relax now…
It will be interesting to see the differences in primaries most of all before we jump to any conclusions
Same as usual…
The leaflet scandal has gotta be worth 1-2 points as well…
Please note that Possums also stated about the Galaxy 52% poll:
“they’ve been the stand up polling comedian all year.”
The average of the last major polls last time was a very accurate predictor of the actual result…
I’ll tell you all who i think will win after I see the Poll AEC are doing on Saturday.
Yes, my prediction from the most consistent and independent pollster.
Jes-a-len-ko
Yo- byo-tay
Not sure whether I posted this earlier but Kellygate reminds me of Ralph Willis releasing the fake Costello letter in ‘96 – something which Keating forever blamed for his defeat (somewhat unfairly)
Just asked Poss to drop by this thread and provide some substantiation – not that I don’t trust him implicitly, just seeking confirmation…
I think we can leave thecoalition optimists and ALP concern trolls in a Galaxy far far away.
This popped up on my iGoogle home page today…
To predict the behaviour of ordinary people in advance, you only have to assume that they will always try to escape a disagreeable situation with the smallest possible expenditure of intelligence.
– Friedrich Nietzsche
I think it sums up the antics in Lindsay today.
And with Nielsen on 55-45 things are humming along nicely for a Labor victory.
Phew- thanks Possum!
remember the difference between recent Galaxy and Newspoll marginal polls. This is no different. A look across all four polls (maybe not Morgan) will be the best guide.
Has Galaxy come up with this 52-48 in their polls in the last, say, 6 months?!?
If this is just another fresh poll (with 1-2k sample size), I wouldn’t take it seriously.
By now pollsters should announce their aggregated poll, weighting over the last few months. That would be more convincing.
Oakes might have a early leak on ACN. He’ll be worth watching anyway
Phew!
52-48 or 50-50 just couldn’t have been right. This is more like it.
Come Sat 57-43 should be the go after Lindsaygate
Being Tabitha.
Possum’s amazing
Possum’s unfailing
Regardless of what the polls say now we know it simply couldn’t be 52/48
The LNP have had the worst campaign possible and Labor has been on song throughout. Galaxy have been low most of the year whilst Newspoll and Nielsen have backed each other reasonably well – and that has been until very recently 54-55, which the Morgan phone poll backs. The lowest it could be right now is 53/47.
If anything Howard’s vote should go backwards and if it gets anyworse 55/45 may well end up the election result.
FFS, 52:48, even if it was true, would get Labor elected comfortablty.
21,
Well worth watching.
I want to see a reprisal of his a.m show 
Only if the swing was uniform though Spiros.
Actually Spiros, that’s not right. It would be exceedingly close at 52:48. Due to the anture of things, Labor needs slightly higher vote than theL/NP jsut to break even.
Glen 57 — Labor would win most of the time with 52 even assuming a non-uniform swing. Although they would miss some low swing seats, they would also pick up some above the average swing.
Well of course it’s always possible the scare campaign finally broke through. It has before.
When the Daily Terror endorses Labor, then you know the game is over for the Govt. So be relax and comfortable, as the man would tell you.
For those who think these national polls are meaningless, lest we forget………Graham Richardson would have access to far more extensive internal Labor Party polling of marginal seats, and Sunday night on Nine he called it 80 seats for Labor.
Richo has been on the money calling the result correctly for 30 years. If anything he would be prone to offer a conservative prediction.
No Glen, you’ve got it completely backwards. If the swing was uniform, then Labor might not get up with 52:48, according to the pendulum.
But the swing will not be uniform. We know that already from the state polling.
Newspoll and ACN release polls regularly election or no election. Galaxy pops its head up 2 months before an election then disappears.
I reckon Briggs reads tea leaves and hopes some sucker believes him. Didn’t work in the Qld election – he reckoned the Nats were a real chance.
52-48 could be right, why do people discount it. Galaxy have no doubt asked a bunch of voters the questions, done the maths and this is thier result. I do not much go for the theory that polling companies much around with results other than the fact the chose to round the numbers instead of giving us a decimal point.
I just think treating all the polls as one sample is far more accurate and history has shown that to be the case. Please use reason and stop sounding like Colingwood supporters who wont see things objectively and in context.
The interpretation of these polls (if true) is simple: 53.5 +/- MOE, which is what many of us have been saying all along.
55\45 would seem to concur with the price being offered by the various betting agencies.
There is no way in the world that the ALP 2pp vote on election night will be anything less than 53 – and that would be their worst result in the current polling and political climate. It’s been locked in too far for too long – and the Libs campaign this last week has been shite. Anything less than 54 on the night would be a turn up.
A poster on Poss’ blog says he got the ACN figure from Radio National. Can anyone confirm this?
Yes Daniel B, I agree. If ACN and Newspoll come in at 53+ then it would be hard to believe that the actual result will be much lower than 53.
Saw the PM on Ten news looked very desperate begging for votes, we are a good government, the case for change has not been made, yet another lie.
People dismiss Galaxy because they’re afraid it could be right. My feeling is it’ll be closer to Galaxy than ACN on the night.
9 News Sydney opening with PamphletGate…
LTEP
You would say that.
I’ll believe the ACN result when I read it in the papers.
After reading Possum’s site, I don’t think he is giving the 55-45 figure from an authoritative source.
Happy to be proved wrong.
forget the polls gentlemen
stick with the punters, they are correct all time time
the they say $1.2x / $4.x
Just keeping some balance. I still think the polls point to a likely ALP victory, but I think it’ll be extremely tight and not even the parties can tell how its going to go.
Galaxy has proved itself as unreliable as dodgy leaflet in a Liberal Party bunker. Remember the Galaxy outlier produced to bolster the PM when he was under threat some months ago: then it was secured by using push polling questions before the poll was taken to produce a better result for the Coalition. Other polls round the time were telling a different story. Was this latest Galaxy Poll preceded by dubious questions?
LTEP 42
Closer to Galaxy than ACN means 53:47, which is a runaway win.
what if acn is worse.. for labor
ACN 57-43
Channel 7
No joke!
Channel 7 just said ACN is 57 to 43 to Labor
keep us up to date on the way the news shows are spinning things
Justin — Paul B on Ten News said ACN was *a lot* better for Labor.
Think about it guys, the latest newspoll was only completed about 72 hours before this one. What do you think has made the big difference?
Have the Libs done anything different other than stuff up in the last 72 hours?
Who knows why they might be clawing back votes. Who knows if they really are.
channel seven says 57-43 for ACN
rofl
Yeah, good one RN
Come on.
Last time Galaxy and Morgan were the most accurate in their final primary vote polls, but Galaxy got the preferences right and Morgan didn’t.
That is hilarious!
Best final polls ever
WTF?
42 Lose the election please Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 6:00 pm
People dismiss Galaxy because they’re afraid it could be right. My feeling is it’ll be closer to Galaxy than ACN on the night.
And you dismiss ACN 55-45 because you are afraid it could be right….sad…very sad..for a Labor supporter…or not?
Hahahhaha.. hilarious.
Mark Reily on 7 has just reported Nielson at 57 – 43
57-43 on 7 news
Mark Riley said
“Labor lead lengthening to 12 points – 57-43, ::pause:: to 14 points rather, 57-43″
He said in just then on Channel 7 Sydney news
Definitely, not joke. It was 7’s political reporter, and he said a 14% difference of 57 to 43 for Labor.
Bewdy!
OK, can anyone confirm 57-43, no sh*t?
Laurie leaked no poll results
…. time to put my 6yo in the shower and get a little work done before next round of news at 7pm 
Also 7 has a former Kelly staffer saying Kelly used bogus pamphlets in 2001.
One of these pollsters could be out of a job after the election…
man … alright, 57/43 …… so it was leaked but not to 9 … thanks
:)
So do we expect one more each of Newspoll and Morgan and that’s it?
If so, the final Newspoll will hopefully tell us what the actual situation is.
If that ACN figure’s for real, I wonder if it overlapped with the start of RaceHateGate?
Get on ALP at 11-1 over 56% TPP at Sportingbet
Obviously, The Daily Tele doesn’t believe their Galaxy poll either—front page editorial tomorrow recommending vote for Labor!
57/43 on Prime News in Canberra.
That’s a 14 point gap.
Absolutely stunning.
This combined with the pamphletgate affair = Liberal annihlation.
over 56%+ doesnt happen in this country- the electoral system is very balanced- major crisis would be needed for that and we dont have one.
Happy to be proven wrong of course.
Headline amended.
Who cares what Galaxy said and who’s afraid. Take a look at the betting markets. The smart money is in and when one side blows out as far as the Coalition have there is no coming back.I would back the money over someones “feelings” anyday.
57/43 I don’t believe it. If it’s true we have won.
Comparing ACN with Galaxy is like comparing a Rolls with a go-cart.
I think we can now be pretty sure that the ALP’s vote is going to be somewhere above 52%. ie. ALP win.
But by how much? Hard to go past a result in the 53-54 range.
The nine news in Sydney led with the Lindsay disgrace. Channel 7 did 2 stories on it. And then followed by revealing The Daily T will devote tomorrow’s front page to endorsing Rudd.
This will be a rout.
i can’t handle this much longer
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=national&national=9.5&nsw=0&vic=0&qld=0&wa=0&sa=0&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1.5
57-43 would be manna from heaven. too good to be true
I’m off to Antony’s calc to punch those numbers in ……
So was the ACN taken before Lindsaygate or after?
I’ll believe it when I see it in the papers though.
Same ACN as June and September. It will lead the SMH and Age. The punters will then follow the herd. We all want to say we voted for the winning team.
there are 2 threads opened at the moment, I don’t wanna miss either of them. But it’s a pain to follow 2 threads at the same time
Calling the pamphlet episode ‘bogan-gate’ makes me cringe, and is part of a twisted Australian class consciousness that has helped keep Howard in power for all these years.
Are the voters of Lindsay just dumb racist bogans, (that should blame themselves for being targetted by the government) or decent people, pissed off at being further manipulated by that same venal government?
I suppose we will find out the percentages of each after saturday.
Wooooooooooooooooooot.
Was AC Neilsen taken half today I wonder, thereby incorporating Lindsaygate?
This is before pamphletgate…lol
aaaa ha, Nostral.
so newspoll?
54.5 ie right in between
hehehehehehe
try this
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=national&national=9.7&nsw=0&vic=0&qld=0&wa=0&sa=0&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1.5
Wilianm says – “Either ACNielsen or Galaxy are going to look at bit silly come Sunday.” Or both William if it is somewhere in the middle.
Lol im just trying to imagine the look of tabithas face right now! lol
57!
Crazy!
Either Galaxy or Nielsen are going to look like the biggest idiots this side of the Lindsay Liberals.
Or, the true fugure might be 54.5:45:5 – which is what the polls have been saying all year, and the tonight’s two polls are either edge of MOE.
Hands up who has got absolutely no work done this afternoon whatsoever?
Imagine after the months of polling consistencey that we end up with 2 or three outliers in the election eve polls- in both directions.
Actually it would not be suprising- as i said before, these polls have always been the least accurate.
if its in the middle of galaxy and ac then newspoll wins
the roller coaster continues… do these pollster deliberately play with our emotions do you think?
Hand raised..
57-43? No way!
Ashley
Work?
Sportingbet is still at $1.22 get on it quick!
57 is what will happen on the day, it’ll only blow out at the last minute, like last election in reverse
I don’t know what everyone is worried about. I’ve said for months that it will be 80 to 85 seats for Labor and I see no reason to change. Stuff Galaxy. How many times have we all said it’s the trends not individual polls that matter.
Is it true as I have heard that Galaxy favours polling heavier samples in marginal seats for their national polls as a way of refining their accuracy for winning party?
Yeah, go you halves Nostra: How’s 54.5?
Talking about heckling of journalists at NPC on PM.
Batfair at $1.25 but falling.
Primary predictions anybody? I’ll go for 48-40.
At the rate of ACN, Howard and his ministers will be rushing to the shredders and readying themselves for the removalist vans on Saturday night.
Galaxy’s method will prove it’s downfall in 48 hours
Morgan starting to look almost credible …
These two polls are absolutely true to form. ACN favours Labor and Galaxy favours the coalition. Of course the problem for the coalition is that neither predicts them winning.
The funny thing is… now we need to wait for Newspoll to get a final fix on where we think things are.
The Australian will be loving the attention if they hold off on releasing it until Saturday. I was rather hoping that Newspoll would screw it up just to make the Oz look bad.
So once again – what polls are left before Saturday?
bull butter
i’m really interested in galaxys primaries now
I’m thinking 89 seats would be a nice round number gain
Heckling at journos: boo-hoo!
Not saying this was appropriate behaviour (it wasn’t) but aren’t the journos precious little darlings! Wouldn’t last five minutes as politicians if that kind of heckling unnerves them.
LTEP at 48
‘Just keeping some balance’.
This is not the ABC.
HOLY CRAP!!!!!!!!!!
Don’t forget that Galaxy poll done for the SBS Insight Program was also a 52-48 one.
I’m sceptical about Galaxy, because I don’t trust David Briggs. He’s made a few too many comments recently that could be interpreted as supporting one side of politics.
If I’m correct, ACN got close to the final election result in their final poll of that campaign.
I’ll got for 53.6% of the vote and 85 seats
@mr0speaker: Out of interest, what makes the Galaxy methodology different, and how is it bad if they got the closest prediction last time? Could it be luck? Or trying to ‘play it safe’?
How stupid do you have to be though?
Who do they think will be making decisions on how to report the last few days of the campaign?
Maybe THOSE EXACT JOURNALISTS?
Another campaign masterstroke.
centrebet still say 1.22/4.35 … wonder how long that will stay before the widening starts?
Iasbet has Labor @ 1.23 and Coalition @ 4.25
Yeah I think so, but I think the same about the Galaxy result. The reality is almost certainly somewhere in between… which means the Libs are screwed.
But we already knew that.
132 Julie
Its pretty wide already as far as two horse races go
Here’s what’ll happen.
Labor will get 54% or 55%.
Newspoll will say they are the best, while Galaxy and ACn will claim they were better with primaries, or say they were right within MOE, or whatever.
Labor will win 95 seats.
On Sunday morning, LTEP will say
“all these results might be overturned by postal and absentee votes and challenges in the court of disputed returns”.
I don’t know why their methodology differs, but they are clearly going against the grain of all other polls, so either they’ve got it miraculously right, or the alternate method mentioned earlier will prove to be flawed.
I’m sure Mr Stirton will have no problem finding another job come Monday…then again, who’d want to hire him?
Herald Sun backs Howard
DESPITE winning the campaign and most political battles this year, Kevin Rudd has failed to mount a convincing case for government. For this, and other crucial reasons, the Herald Sun will tomorrow recommend a vote for John Howard and his successor Peter Costello. Read the full argument in tomorrow’s Herald Sun and then join our online discussion.
comment/ surprise, surprise…. NOT
Hehe Spiros.
Patrick @ 131,
Agree it’s stupid. But MSM journos are truly pathetic if that upset them!
@Julie: Might be a bit of movement tomorrow, but given the mixed poll results that we know of already, I doubt it will be much. Today’s antics combined with the polls could see the ALP tighten up a bit. The LNP may dip below $4 given the large gap – a few punters might want to try their luck on what appears to be a lame horse…
Murdoch has turned big time it would seem.
At last.
Fact: galaxy are push polling with the “how close to unions” question.
I dont know the impact of that, but its whats going on.
Where did they poll???
Batman, Wills, Gorton, Sydney, Hunter, Newcastle WTF????
57 – 43 throughout the campaign the polls have not been that far apart, 53-47 is probably where we are at atm.
57-43 is bull butter just as galaxy would have been bull butter if it was 50-50.
Don’t worry Steven Kaye, you and your bunch of cronies will have lots of time in the dole queue as well.
ANC’s 57 is closer to 54-56 in the final days than Galaxy’s 52 I think
Beautiful one day ruddy beautidul the next. The ‘Kraken Awakes’.
Said this at PS but worth repeating here:
What’s right in the middle of the Galaxy/ACN numbers? 55:45 that’s what
Just like the long-term averages have been telling us, Poss’ earlier prediction of 55.12 still looks right to me. Plus Jackman and others have done alternative pseph and come up with basically the same number of 55. It’s too irresistible to ignore.
Glen:
57/43 is within the margin of error of 55/45 that it’s been all year.
As is 52/48.
Thank you, Herald Sun. Interesting too…what with the Age not backing Krudd, and now the Herald Sun endorsing the Coalition, I think all those reports of Labor not making any headway in Victoria are correct.
As for the Tele, Penberthy’s been against Mr Howard for a long time now. I always thought it was a big mistake appointing the little cretin editor.
Ashley @ 100 -
It’s more tragic than that – I had to go out to a meeting and read PB posts on my phone as I traveled to and from the appointment. Got to see Bob Brown boarding the train at Bondi Junction, though, which was a nice touch. I gather he’s doing his best to get the Greens primary vote up in Wentworth. Saw Lucy Turnbull a bit later, walking out of Malcolm’s office. She didn’t look very happy…
I think they are both wrong in margin and correct in result
‘f’ n Beautiful
yup 57 52
split down the middle 54.5
that will be newspoll
oh and xmas will be renamed rudd-mass
We all know which one is going to look very silly.
Galaxy got lucky last election by favouring the libs all cycle, and then experiencing a real change to the coalition in the last two weeks. They have favoured the libs whenever given the chance.
This time they’re going to look like the push-polling liberal sycophants they are.
ACNielsen in the spirit of the late Bill Collins are “the accurate ones”. Given the debacle that is/has been/was the Liberal campaign who would believe otherwise?
Well at least the Hun is backing Howie, if they went with Rudd i really would be worried lol!
ACN, do not play favourites and are the most consistent, indepedent and professional. They will be the closest to the actual.
144 Lefty E – absolutely true Lefty E because I was polled and when that question came up suggested to them that I thought they were engaging in push polling.
Grover, you win, and I left a little blog for the Sham on GG, (and apologies for the little ‘appalling’ typo):
Dennis, in recognition for all your help throughout this appallyingly inept and mind-numbing Liberal campaign, some of us on the blogosphere have decided to re-name Howard’s last campaign as the “Sham-paign we had to have”!
We toast you with flutes aloft!
(Hey, and cheers to Grover for the winning entry!)
That’d have to be a primary of 50 for the ALP, maybe even 51.
It’s certainly hard to reconcile the Galaxy poll with the events of the campaign.
It will be very interesting to see the primaries/preferences – for example, these figures might reflect a very high or low Greens vote and the corresponding (mis)distribution of preferences.
Anyone know how they each do it?
Sorry about not being able to divulge more info this morning guys. I got called away as soon as I finished the last post.
As you can see the ACN/Galaxy companies have got a lot riding on this. Someone is going to have a lot of egg on their faces as they are poles apart (no pun intended). The role of Morgan is going to be usurped.
Rofl the Hun.
I agree that ACN are the best source, and I think the general idea that the margin will tighten in the final days is misguided… I think the Libs will be lucky to keep the numbers at 54.5 or 55
when will the Australian come out and back Howard?
Yeah, the Herald Sun’s endorsement really helped Kennett in Victoria.
You mean like the actual correct figures, for example?
When haven’t they?
Man Costello is such a turd on ABC radio. I hope he enjoys his time on the opposition benches.
#159 & 168: yes and yes.
163.
Galaxy’s polls can be reconciled to the campaign in that every time the Coalition need some kind of boost, Galaxy publishes a poll
HH writes:
“I’m sceptical about Galaxy, because I don’t trust David Briggs. He’s made a few too many comments recently that could be interpreted as supporting one side of politics.
Likewise HH. Pretty much from the word go, in fact. I don’t think I’ve ever heard him give an interview that could be considered as “balanced”. Galaxy also all too often seem to come up with surprise results that just happen to be “convenient” for their clients. A surprise boost to keep up moral when things aren’t going well, often off a previous slightly low poll to maximise the “gap” movement, and the like. It is all too easy to skew these things a little.
Just talked to my mum (Wide Bay) she was polled by Galaxy on wednesday. Who will you vote for was the 3rd or 4th question (she can’t remember the other questions – she is 78).
So it seem Galaxy are up to their old tricks.
Glen, I’ve got no problem with any of your posts, mate, but there is a Galaxy Poll thread running where you can bask in the warm glow of the narrowing finally having arrived. Why do you want to keep posting on the thread of the poll you think is bull butter?
Lets hope the ‘galaxy is the most accurate’ crap that arose from them arbitrarily (within the moe) falling closest to the actual result in 2004 is finally put to bed. David Brooks strikes me as an air head and they’ve been out on their own all year pushing the bottom end of the Labor vote.
Someone needs to make a list of the endorsements tomorrow.
CAN’T … TEAR … MYSELF … AWAY … … … MUST …. STOP … HITTING … REFRESH …
I love this reasoning – that the incumbent somehow “deserves” to be in government more simply by virtue of their incumbency. Sort of like… it would be a shame to go through all that hassle of changing government just for something a little bit better, so it has to be a convincing case for a change.
How about, put them side by side, pick the better one? Is that too hard?
Hemingway because its a democracy lol!
What more do they need to do??? Offer up Overthetopington as a virginal (pffft) sacrifice?!?!
We have to thank Galaxy for keeping Howard in his job when his party were angling to get rid of him and allow the Australian electorate to do the job.
mr0speaker:
Hey, I’ve got copyright on this name.
The Speaker ™
Costello on PM. Sounds petulant, whiny (even more than usual), nervous laughter (unusual for Peter). Being quizzed about Bogan-gate and tried to bring in Julia Gillard being late for a debate with him. Phew. I’ll give him points for putting his head above the parapet, but jeez…. not a good performance.
Actually the Herald sun backed Labor in the last state election. Did they get that right Steven Kaye. By the way, newspaper endorsements mean nothing to most. Lok what happened in NSW in their last state election.
I don’t know if I really believe 57-43, but I don’t know if I really believe 52/48 either.
Of course, intuition and history would tell you it’ll be closer to 52 than 57. I find it hard to imagine the result is gong to be over 54%, let alone 57.
I think all this business today will act to firm up intentions for Labor so they will do no worse than 52%… but I could be wrong on that too.
First somebody says 50/50. Then Ruawake says menzies. Then its 50/50 again. then its Higgins (you know who you are). Then its 52/46… then its 52/48… Then ACN 55/45… now 57/43.
Am I exhausted? YES
Who cares who the papers endorse? That is such an old fashioned view of what influences voters.
The Speaker.
Note: my name has a 0 in it, which clearly identifies me as a seperate entity, it is also pronounced and spelled differently.
Ladies and Gentlemen I am officially confused
How can in the same period of time galaxy come into 52-48, and ACN go to 57-43?
*Scratches head*
*Befuddled look on face*
Now our Julia on PM. God I love this woman.
I think it’s a little wrong to say Galaxy only got the ‘04 election result right. They also got very close to the Qld and NSW results.
I agree with others who suggest ACNielsen has been a proven performer over many elections. Their trend lines are usualy smooth with few rogue results. Galaxy have been doing some strange things this year and do not fill me with confidence. All polls in 2004 got the primary result about right but differed markedly after the preferences. This is Galaxy’s main claim to fame, one start for one win. At this stage taking into account the betting markets I am inclined to go with the older proven performer ACNielsen.
If the worst the alp can hope for on election day is 52-53% then the coalition is finished.
SirEggo — MOE
Is Newspoll in tomorrows GG?
SirEggo @191, We’ve been saying the same about Morgan v everyone else all year. Morgan may end up being the closest of all …
Glen,
It wasn’t a suggestion that you to go to the other thread, but a non-rhetorical question. If you don’t want to answer it, no worries.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NizKjT8V0uI
buzzz ding Tory style
we believe what we want to believe
labor will win the election but it won’t be 57-43
MOE?
It’s not going to be 57%.
It is going to be 54 -55 %.
And the number of seats held by Labor will start with a 9.
This is what all the objective evidence and all the objective commentators are saying.
This Moe guy sure cops a lot of blame around here.
I hate Moe
I’m declaring it (again tentatively), Galaxy is a PUSH POLL in safe coalition seats
Ashley 196
Yeh, probably right.
The 57-43 probably an outlier.
But still
YOOOOOO BEEEEEEYOOOOOOOTEEEEEEEE
Sorry, couldn’t control myself
37 hours 26 minutes till polls open……
I might have to take back my earlier Myth No 2 (not believing in conspiracy theories about Galaxy) if it’s true they’re doing push polling.
Do we have a confirmed recent case of this, where we’re sure it was for a published poll?
If anyone still has any doubts about 57/43 catch a bit of the replay of the Coconut at the Nat Press Club today. He was dead-set practically crying.
Rodent
Rudd
mr0speaker :
You’ve only been using it for one day, I’ve had mine for years.
poll0bludger ™
The galaxy poll is a doctored report trying to create the impression of momentum for the coalition with a hope of persuading undecideds.
Galaxy play the role of all those dodgy ‘polls’ in american presidential campaigns which try to create the impression of a ‘republican’ winner over a sustained period.
Problem is with pamphletgate and Rupert playing both sides of the fence this election (based on real polls) no real chance for oxygen in a ‘comeback’ argument in this poll, although libs will still try to spin it that way.
Galaxy will do a poll on the morning/day of the election and it wil be around 54/55 ALP thereby covering their behinds, but Galaxy’s role is as always a participant in the process rather than an observer.
Speakers – and don’t try and steal my name either – it took me ages to think of it
Glen,
I have waited 11 long years for this, I am going to enjoy every minute of it between now and end of the evening on Saturday. And every minute of it once Rudd and company are officially in. What goes around comes around and it is now our turn.
The last time I felt this good was on the evening of election returns in 1992 when we chucked out 12 years worth of Republicans for the Democrats in the USA.
I am officially opening the Election night bar tonight
, even if that means I need to go to for restocking it between now and Satuday 
And the Lindsay affair will provide some nice padding of 0.5% or so.
Why can’t it be 57 -43 on the day? Just because it’s never happened doesn’t mean it can’t.
All year it’s been 55 – 45 and as the wheels go cartwheeling off the Liberal campaign bus, some of the passengers are jumping across to the winning side.
Centre,
I thought he was fine at NPC today. Given the circumstances in fact, I thought it was a textbook example of the stoicism that’s got him as far as he has in politics.
I mean, a normal person would’ve rung in sick, I reckon.
Moe has somehow got himself onto all the pollsters phone records, using a large number of false names.
When Galaxy calls him (repeatedly) he puts on a different voice each time, and votes for Howard. Whenever ACN calls him he votes for Rudd.
That’s how the ACN and Galaxy results can be explained by Moe.
Now, here’s a banner I’m loving:
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/
“Time for a Historic Change.
Telegraph Backs Rudd”.
Julie ive suffered defeats from the Libs in Victoria and WA i know what its like to lose and i am not looking forward to losing this one but despite what you might think of JWH Australia is better off than we were in 1996.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oi37C6eHAeg&feature=user
Crap. In the real world, far removed from Stirton’s masturbatory fantasies, the Aussie dollar is dropping, closing at 87c. Is this what happens when a Krudd Government is merely contemplated? Damn.
SBS gave the Kelly Lindsay scandal a good long report.
Also stated ACN 57 to 43. Did not mention Galaxy.
Ashley 217
Moe is worth about 2% in these polls, isn’t he? LOL
I don’t think it counts as trolling if it’s a statement of fact: Steven Kaye, you’re an idiot.
Please keep posting here after Sunday.
Anyone know what quesitons were asked in both polls?
Didn’t someone in a thread yeasterday mention something about a who is closer to unions question?
Dario@205
Try orange juice?
Money moving on Bennalong at Centrebet: 1.63/2.15
thanks for the comedy Steven
we’re comin back! 95 seats for the true economic conservatives
What was the corresponding ACN poll in 2004? Were they out by a long way?
Cry us a river Steven.
Gary Bruce, ACN’s result in ‘04 was 54/46 (Coalition/ALP)
They overestimated the Coalition’s primary vote but got the ALP’s pretty much spot on.
Choose your reality! Nielson or Galaxy. Telegraph or Herald Sun.
whose got the coolade?
#223 –
“I don’t think it counts as trolling if it’s a statement of fact: Steven Kaye, you’re an idiot.”
And you, Patrick Bateman, are loonier than your fictional namesake.
Glen 219 – I don’t agree – although I am sure you can make an argument – it’ll just be based on different values to me.
Despite John Howard saying that Australians are prouder than they were a decade ago, I disagree. I am ashamed of being Australian now and I never was before.
In my view, John Howard has ruined this country and he deserves to lose his seat.
Stephen Kaye 220 – not even worth responding to such ignorance.
Ashley @ 179: rotfl, i’m exactly the same. PB is more addictive than crack cocaine laced with caffeine and chocolate.
204, 205, 217: hahahahahaha
The last ACN before 2004 was 54-46 Libs
The over estimated the Libs by 1.3(?)
That means this could really be 58.3-41.7!
Or not….LOL
If you’ll excuse me, I have some reservations at Dorsia.
Steven,
You left out the earthquakes and plagues of locusts again.
As I’ve said many times now, Galaxy’s reputation will be in tatters come Saturday night. The proof is that their rogue polls always come when the Coalition needs it most.
It’s absolutely shameless, and so foolish making their final poll wrong. No doubt they will use the leaflet-gate scandal to explain the massive to Labor after their poll…
Alright, I’ve gotta head home.
Nobody say anything interesting while I’m away.
Glen @ 200
“http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NizKjT8V0uI
buzzz ding Tory style”
Man that was lame. I thought a teenager made it in his bedroom until I saw it was from LiberalParty07.
A little something from Glen’s Dad. Wait till he gets back from work today to watch the News!
The Oz.
Liberals can learn from Monty Python
FROM THE RIGHT: Ian Smith | November 22, 2007
Always look on the bright side of life.
The polls are terrible, some of our stars are falling (just what has happened to Tony Abbott in this campaign?) and Kevin07 is attracting more fans than Justin Timberlake. But we must take heed of Eric Idle’s immortal song.
Fellow conservatives do not fret. We still have more than 48 hours left.
Although Newspoll shows 54 per cent ALP and 46 per cent Coalition, it is only a flesh wound.
To show the Right likes a challenge, Media Monitors reflects that over the past week Australia has been debating issues that are the domain of others: education and climate change.
Kevin has convinced people that he will be to Australian education what Eli Whitney was to America’s industrial revolution, while Bob Brown has a firmer grip on climate change than Posh has on Becks.
Regarding education, as the ever-insightful Peter Ruehl wrote, all Kevin will do when every kid gets a computer at school is give them the chance to waste as much time surfing the web there as they already do at home.
As for climate change, Bob’s been on about this for years. It still snows in winter and even rained in Melbourne yesterday. Yes, I may have gone to work in Speedos last week because the temperature nudged 50 degrees in Adelaide but really Bob, what are you on about? We can all adapt.
John Howard maintains a cracking pace. People are consistently confounded by the speed of his morning walk.
Senator Simon Birmingham, in his early 30s, says he had to run to keep up with the PM.
Johnny is the man we need to lead this country. Run to the booths behind him on Saturday everyone. You’re not there yet Kevin!
Meanwhile:
Some things in life are bad,
They can really make you mad,
Other things just make you swear and curse,
When you’re chewing on life’s gristle,
Don’t grumble, give a whistle,
And this’ll help things turn out for the best
Ian Smith is executive chairman of media relations group Gavin Anderson (Australia).
Thanks LTEP. – I just don’t believe the conditions have favoured the coalition to the extent where Labor’s vote has gone down and the coalitions has gone up. It just doesn’t ring true.
What happened to Nostro he popped up but now hes gone?
Steven has a point if only this bad economic forecast could have happened a week ago oh well.
And don’t even think about leaking the Newspoll result until I get back.
Kaye you economic fool, a lower dollar enhances our export competitiveness and reduces our trade deficit.
Crikey and Possum and a few other sites had comments on the Galaxy push poll of September (I think it was).
David Briggs of Galaxy does not do his credibility any good when he say “we (Liberals) are still in the race.
Galaxy are a joke, as Possum notes they can round down and allocate preferences as to how they see fit so that a 52-48 can have a mid range of 53.5-46.5 and an upper range of 55-45, but for some reason galaxy takes the lower range of 52-48.
.
.
Finally he’s gone. Now we can talk about Ashley.
I really am about to leave. Just… one… more… refresh.
Now that Ashley’s gone I can leak that Newspoll I’ve been holding onto.
(and before anyone asks or wonders… no)
Wow
Channel 10 Queensland phone poll has Libs getting 60 plus % of the vote, to Labor only 30% something, with only 1% undecided…
8000 people called in
this must be what John has been doing all afternoon up here in Ipswich
this is surely the most authoritative poll of the campaign
Channel 10 newsreader says the voters have clearly decided…
(Paul B is actually a good journo – he must cringe at this kind of rubbish)
just maybe the Libs team are only showing JWH these kind of stories…a bit like Der Fuhrer only getting the battlefront reports showing his army winning….
this keeps him ready to get up in the morning for those ridiculous forced marches the media now expect….
and as for the Lindsay debacle: why has it got so much traction? because it is so true to the nature of howard and his mob….its innately the kind of thing they do…
Dammit Paul K! Now I have no choice but to refresh for another couple of minutes.
I hear he’s a friend of Moe’s.
For crying out loud Ashley bugger off home!!
Glen at 245:
Don’t worry. If by some miracle the Libs get voted back in, you’ll have plenty of bad economic forecasts in the coming years.
Glen, Steven K, and Nostral.
What a boxed trifecta.
Hand out the tissues.
LOL
Steven Kaye,
Oil prices have hit a record high. I guess it’s all Rudd’s fault, what with Labor controlling oil stocks all over the world. Can’t wait to see the price of petrol drop to under 50 cents a litre if Howard gets back in.
252
They got 8000 calls from morons who get all their kicks from Ten’s wonderful programs/
“Comment on ACNielsen: 57-43 by paul k23:46 11/21/2007, paul k, Comments for The Poll Bludger
.
.
Finally he’s gone. Now we can talk about Ashley.”
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!
CRACKED ME UP PK
Stop it!!! I’m leaving.
Odds on Eden-Monaro ALP 1.27 to LIB 3.4
If that’s true, 55-45, that’s WOW.
Cousins on SBS saying he hopes Turnbull gets voted….hahahaha
Living in Lindsay under “Kelly Country” will finally come to an end. Her base is Glenmore Park & they have kept her elected all this time. She saw the writing on the wall & jumped. Her despicable husband, an orthodontist, is a goose. So is Karen Shit-Offs husband. But they have done it before.
Listen to “Labor demands answers over fake pamplets scam” to hear what a goose Jackie Kelly is
http://www.abc.net.au/am/default.htm
57-43?
Has the world gone mad?
out
Is this ACN part of the 90,000 group that they signed up on-line.
If so it may be overstated as people prepared to engage in the type of on-line surveys like ACN are more likely to inform themselves of the issues and choices before they decide.
Geez the Herald Sun has to be the dumbest paper going. There editorial suggests they pretty much think Rudd is better:
“Tomorrow, the Herald Sun will argue that a Labor victory on Saturday may bring many new ideas and a great sense of purpose to government.
We observe, however; ”Many voters will be wondering if what they’ve heard from Mr Rudd over the past six weeks is actually what they’ll get post-election.”
Essentially there editorial is we are endorsing the LIbs because we want Peter Costello as PM – talk about your winning arguements:
“If he wins on Saturday, Mr Howard should begin preparing for a smooth succession – sooner rather than later.”
Am sure that’ll win over those undecideds
giasou Spiro
Even 54-55 is MASSIVE.
Betfair has stabilised for the time being at $1.25 (was $1.24 at one stage today).
So it’s about 54 or 55%. I don’t think either will have egg on their faces for that.
I think it will get closer on election day. The Sri Lanka/Australia game is probably a good analogy, the Coalition will do better than expected at the end, but the result will be the same.
I would have said the election was not in doubt, but still numerically close, due to the “dead space” in seat gains in each state for % swing.
But with the antics in Lindsay? Australians have never cared about corruption unless it affects them, but incompetence? Didn’t the idiots even get the Islamic sayings wrong?
I mean Listen to “Fake pamphlet scam a prank, Kelly says”
http://www.abc.net.au/am/default.htm
Thnking about the lame Lib ads, I think (as someone said awhile ago) that thie one was lost quite early and decided not to ravage their cash reserves.
Kelly came off as puerile on the ABC interview.
“My husband just haaates unionists.. ”
No one’s laughing.
I’d be surprised if the betting markets didn’t move towards the Coalition. With a 52/48 backing you up the odds are too good to miss. I don’t really believe the betting markets are particularly useful but we’ll see.
54-55 is a blowout already, 57 is ‘look ma, no Liberal party’
It’s also just a little bit unbelievable. I can bring myself to 55, and in a very odd occasion 56… but not 57.
Does it really feel like a record election result? If you’re really honest it doesn’t.
The News LTD. polls…Galaxy and Newspoll…have consistently been manipulated for the last few months.
It has been blatantly obvious to any poll watcher.
Galaxy has been used as a Liberal Party booster. fullstop.
Newspoll has been used as a “shaper” of the Liberal Party.The outrageous fluctuations have been used to try and get desired outcomes.
It was clear a month ago that ACN was the only “true” poll going around…and i said so here.
This 57-43 blows me away and my wildest predictions/hopes/belief of 102 seats and the total rejection of Howardism looks a reality.
LTEP,
I can see you’re going to be the life of the party on Saturday night.
Gerr @ 266 -
It’s quite possible that the world is coming to its senses…
paul k… i’m sure I’ll give people someone to jeer at either way
Herald Sun wants Costello as PM? Are Vics really that parochial?
LTEP, sweetie if it is 57 on Saturday it iwll feel like a record election result, deep inside a hangover for a week. You have trouble believing we can win so no shock you can’t believe a cold hard poll bashing you in the face. We all pick what we want sugar.
I would believe the Galaxy Poll if there was actually a real reason for the vote to close (besides the dull “it’s getting closer to Saturday” factor). The Libs have done nothing to improve their vote, and the ALP done nothing to lose any.
57-43. Doubtful. I’d say they’re both outliers.
Who usually runs with Galaxy on its pages?
Looks like Galaxy has been push-polling. Have to wait for other polls now. Newspoll is not biased; when you do lots of polls, some will be outside MoE.
ACNielsen has the best proven record over many elections. Galaxy was a Federal one hit wonder and only got it right because their favoured side won, they were shocking in the state elections predicting a LNP win in Qld. Newspoll has been too volatile of late, don’t know what they are doing.
Nielson is the poll I take the most notice of and I am starting to believe it will be somewhere around a 55% landslide just as Possum, Peter Brent and Simon Jackman have been saying. They are the experts so that’ll do me
Channel 7 Perth in their 7newsmail referring to the Kelly scandal: “Just 48 hours of the election campaign to go and the PM is struggling to overcome a Liberal prank that backfired. Political reporter Mark Riley says John Howard is fuming and embarrassed.”
Liberal stooges.
Mornin’ all. Well, I was completely wrong about the Herald Sun (see my claim a few days back that it would back Rudd). By God though, I’m heartened by the Tele. I don’t really care what any of the other papers have to say now…
The goon squad are union thugs. All unionists are thugs according to Jackie. They’re coming back she says. Chris Uhlmann gave it to her.
Wrong Let It End… look at this post from Crikey:
http://www.crikey.com.au/Politics/20060911-Queensland-believe-the-polls-not-the-leaks.html
“The final polls from both Newspoll and Galaxy picked the result almost exactly, while the punters who swung Centrebet’s odds back towards the Coalition in the last week all lost their money. The sole exception was a telephone poll from Gary Morgan published on Friday, which showed a 2.5% swing against Labor.”
Peter Slipper’s cab bill $30,000 one fifth of all cab fares for all Lib members. 7 news sunny coast (Mal Brough’s brother – Newsreader)
Mr Bean looking shaky.
While not related to the numbers, what surprises me is the amount of mistakes and gaffes being made by the Coalition when it is the LAST thing they need in this election. Staring defeat in the face must really be getting to some of them. It looks as though the Government is rooted. But hey, anything can happen. Labor might lose by a sole seat.
Middleton’s ABC report was deadly.
LTEP, taking both polls at face value, and lumping them together, we get a very close result of 54.5 per cent.
“Herald Sun wants Costello as PM? Are Vics really that parochial?”
No, I don’t think Victorians are. The Herald Sun has always been in the Liberal fold, so their endorsement of Howard is not at all surprising. And so far their stated reason for this endorsement is that Labor haven’t got enough MPs who have had previous experience in government, so according to that logic, it means that the Herald Sun will NEVER endorse a change of government because Labor will never gain experience in government while being in opposition.
A lot of their readers will agree with them too. It is a paper by the mindless for the mindless.
Grog, all the News Ltd tabloids run Galaxy, so the Hun, Tele, Courier Mail and ‘Tiser will have it. Might actually make waverers who don’t want a Labor landslide vote Labor.
I hear the galaxy has the primary vote the same for Labor and Coalition but that ACN is belived by most to be closer to the truth.
LTEP,
it does feel that way to me….I’ve gotta say, historic wil be the word.
Hawke – longest serving Labor leader and never defeated in an election is from Melbourne.
Menzies – longest serving Liberal Leader and never defeated in an election ( as Lib Leader ) was from Melbourne.
Keating from Sydney lost in a landslide.
Howard from Sydney about to lose in a landslide.
And you heathen are choosing someone from bloody Queensland instead of Melbourne. At least the new Deputy PM will be from Melbourne.
Both the Galaxy 52-48 and ACN 57-43 2PP figures seem unreal to me. However let’s take the average of the two polls: Labour = 54.5, Coalition = 45.5 which is sounds credible to me and is close to what Possum, Mumble etc have been predicting.
Yeah TofK and if you took 54.5% you’d be taking a reasonable position and a labor landslide win, some can’t face that – difficult childhoods I guess *shrugs*
if one takes into account the statistical analyses then ACN will be more accurate than Galaxy.
Given the week does anyone really believe the coalition will gain more votes than last week
I think Hugh Mackay will be vindicated by Saturday night and I hope that Malcom Makerras is also.
A Liberal voter on SBS just said he was voting for Howard because he thought the new IRA laws were wonderful. Has he told Gerry Adams?
Priktorians want Costeloo?
Victorians might be parochial….but they’re not stupid.
If the result was 57-43, not only would Howard lose his seat but so would Costello.
oh stop it, paul k. That was gold.
Are you guys forgetting the marginal seat poll Galaxy release last weekend?? 51/49 if you remember and that was with over 4000 people polled. There is a good chance the 52/48 is where we are at folks. It would explain why the Libs and the Nats were furiously running TV advertising till the end last night. If they thought they were out of it they wouldnt be spending those sorts of dollars on TV commercials. Either way some of the pollsters will lose alot of credibility on Sat.
What polls publish election day Super Saturday? It’s always a newspoll init?
Is this site called the poll bludger because everyone bludges off work whilst madly refreshing it?
Like I said before, it will be the AVERAGE of the polls that gets us to the best prediction of the final result. We still have Newspoll and Morgan to go. It will probably be the case that both Galaxy and Nielsen are at the outer edges of the margin of error, but we’ll see.
Its called Poll Bludger because the majority of posters on here seem to have endless amounts of time to comment on polls …even during working hours.
311 Hahaha yeah that’s about it.
Thommo you can look at the Libs late advertising that way… or you can look at it as a sign of desperation from a party that doesn’t know what to do to cling on.
There’s other signs of desperation, the ‘13 illegible candidates’, the pamphlet disaster etc.
I actually think it’s closer to 52 than 57 though… i’ll settle for 52.5% or lower. It also backs up claims on here last night that internal polling was showing a tight result, under 52% and that there will be 5 seats in it either way (neither party really knows).
LTEP, of course the election can be 57/43. Get real.
FACT: It has been the longest campaign ever and has captured the interests of more people than ever. They are prepared to make a more informed and inbiased decision than ever.
More people are going to get it more right than ever.
Therefore 57/43 is extremely possible.
Thommo, dont just choose the 52/48 poll because it suits you, you tool, look at the polls for the past year, Galaxy’s is the ONLY 52/48 we’ve had….
Thommo
Not everyone has to work
I think the Galaxy poll was partly taken over the weekend while the ACN was taken during the week.
Ok, in a desperate effort to stop this mindless rambling can we just settle on a few things
57-43 seems a bit high and AC have a good rep
52-48 seems a bit low and galaxy have a ok rep, mainly because of the last election (I’m being very kind there)
In between them is around 55-45… seems reasonable
55-45 is about what we’ve been seeing for ever now so this also seems reasonable
Glen is a fool
ok, we all agree on that?
‘There is a good chance the 52/48 is where it is at’.
Well there is some chance. I think good is stretching it um a lot. But some posters might find their credibility stretched on Saturday too.
Bought my radio today, will be handing out how to votes from 4 – 6 pm Sat with my headphones in.
So has any poll predicted a win for the LNP yet?
Actually, there’s more Labor seats here in Victoria, so no Vic. is not parochial, the Hun is just dumb, useful only for sporting results and lining the budgie’s cage.
I have a favor to ask LTEP, can you leave our side and join the libs … they will need all the members they can get.
But mindless rambling is what I’m good at.
LTEP, no I am not wrong. I was referring to the Galaxy poll in the Courier-Mail showing LNP 51/49 at the start of the campaign, total rubbish.
@320
Makes sense to me.
(Esp the Glen bit….hope I wasn’t out a line big fella….)
No, making funny jokes is what your good at
Now, back in your box!
Is Moe everyone is talking about Moe Howard of the Three Stooges;-)
320
slartybardfast Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 7:17 pm
57-43 seems a bit high and AC have a good rep
52-48 seems a bit low and galaxy have a ok rep
In between them is around 55-45… seems reasonable
55-45 is about what we’ve been seeing for ever now so this also seems reasonable
Glen is a fool
ok, we all agree on that?
YEp, slarty, we’ll be able to get back designing fjords, eh?
Jasie, here here. I second that.
No, the fjords are Mine…mine!
Re 283,
ducko Says:
Probably ….. that was why VIC swung so far in 2004. It wasn’t a pro Howard vote, it was an anti – Latham vote. yeah, sure Howard was from NSW as well but Latham was a more scarey proposition. I think it will be just desserts though for both the Herald Sun and Costello (former for endorsing Howard under those reasons and the latter for not challenging last year when he should have) if Costello gets swept out of his seat
.
.
No. It’s Bartender Moe from the Simpsons.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moe_Szyslak
Jasmine… I’m not on anyone’s ’side’. How childish.
Let It End, sorry… what were the other polls showing at the start of the campaign. I thought they all showed Labor come back during the campaign? Particularly after the death of Mr Irwin.
Centre: The campaign is the same length (I think) as the ‘04 election and the ‘84 election. Both showed Coalition recoveries… although one was in Opposition after a previous landslide election.
“219
Glen Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 6:39 pm
Julie ive suffered defeats from the Libs in Victoria and WA i know what its like to lose and i am not looking forward to losing this one but despite what you might think of JWH Australia is better off than we were in 1996.”
It’s OK, Glen. This isn’t Spain 1936. Your life and liberty will not be imperilled after E day. We the people have a spot of National Housekeeping to attend to, that’s all. Rodent Rausing. Nothing personal.
Well same goes for you Andrew , you tool. Dont chose the ACN because it suits you.
Even a Septic has bought into poll bludgin’
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22800579-5013948,00.html
In this election a 52% 2PP to the ALP should give them 20 seats – a comfortable win! All the polls are saying their best results are coming from Qld, NSW and SA where they stand to win most seats. The only way they’d not get the numbers would be big wasted swings in Vic, Tas, ACT and NT and low swings in NSW, Qld and SA. It won’t happen! They’re actually on target for 30+ seats won with 54% 2PP. Watch Howard and the conservatives squirm if it’s 55% or 56% 2PP!
Further to Vics. being parochial, I would rather gouge out my genitals with a blunt spoon than have Tip for PM. (Does it qualify as mindless rambling though?)
Let It End,
Galaxy’s website shows their last poll for that Qld election as quite accurate. If true, that would be a more relevant yardstick than their first one. Especially when looking (as we are now) at a poll on D-Day minus 2.
LTEP, crap. This campaign has been going since Rudd became leader.
It has been an exraordinary election. We could easily be in for an extraordinary result.
Mark my words. Galaxy will be the one losing credibility and thrown in the scrap heap with Morgan. They consistently understate ALP BY 2% primary & overstate the Libs by 2% primary. They are a joke!
thru the drop down menu at the top of the page you can link the data shown to any of the polls…
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/
…its going to be a butt kicking.
Davo, swings in the ACT and NT will not effect the overall national swing due to the population. Try it on the election calculator. If you move it all the way up the national swing barely budges.
The last 730report b4 Super saturday just startin’. Silence please.
OK. 7.30 Report about to start.
Thommo, ACN have produced polls in the past straight after or before Newspoll that were worse for the ALP. Get your facts straight.
Suffice to say, there’s an excellent chance of 53% on these figures, which will do me nicely.
That will represent a public thumping of Howard. Anything more is a bonus
340 Snapper
Rambling maybe, but definitely not mindless
Most of us are decent people pissed off at being manipulated.
Harry, if gouging out your you own genitals with a blunt spoon is a sign of your commitment to SOMETHING.
I’m not arguing with you about ANYTHING
Clarke and Doyle looks a p#sser
343 [Galaxy will be the one losing credibility and thrown in the scrap heap with Morgan.]
The trouble for Galaxy after their ‘Fine Cotton’ ring-in type effort just prior to the Queensland state election last year, it is hard to see how they have any credibility to lose.
For nervous nellies, I have come up with a very effective way to crystallise your thinking.
Just imagine taking a significant amount of cash and placing it on the Coalition with the bookies, considering the odds are so attractive.
See what I mean?
Flash @ 355 – no nervousness from my end. Solid Labor win on Saturday. I’m sticking with 87 seats.
Well, had my nose to the grindstone all day 9to make up for the ice machine last night) and I surface (having only had thirty or so SMSs to keep me going) to discover a whole new world of joy.
It keeps getting better. This is going to be wonderful …
7:30 report starts with Grab of Jackie Kelly’s abysmal performance today, then story. Lib volunteer says they distributed fake how to votes last time.
57 TPP may be an understatement this time on Sat!
Yes Dr Duck… on the ‘alleged’ pamphlet. How can a pamphlet be alleged?
Ah yes, Dr Duck, and without wishing to insult your feathered cousins, that Ms Kelly is a goose and a half
CL -
a) It already is wonderful.
b) Possum got the final score right. Just a touch over 55%.
c) Yes, this election is going to set records.
d) ACN caught the momentum. It may be an outlier, but it represents the trend.
e) The whole argument about Labor not being ready for Government has been thoroughly debunked. Not by words, but by actions. The calm, machine-like performance of the Labor campaign has, finally, gotten through to the electorate. That’s producing a groundswell defection to Labor.
LTEP – it’s under police investigation. Hence the word “alleged” will get used quite a lot from now on. Although I think the defence is that it was comedy, not that it didn’t happen!
Kelly is a total grub. And clearly possessed of little brain. But much racialist invective, i suspect.
Mark @ 361 – well said.
Thanks Marko, I appreciate the power of even more powerful thinking
That should be positive thinking – it’s been a long day (after a long night …)
LTEP you are saying you aren’t a paid up branch meeting attending member of the Australian Labor Party?
Being one isn’t at all childish, in fact I don’t think children can join.
Anyhoo no need to suspend or expel you if you aren’t one of us. Just you have stated over and over again you support us. Unless I’m confusing you with someone.
Anyhoo, you don’t have a side, fine.
Newspoll was ALP 54/46 compared to Galaxy 49/51 on the same weekend in August. Apart from the one off result in Federal 2004 Galaxy has not been so flash and ALWAYS favours Libs IMO.
thommo, I’m not choosing AC Neilsen, I dont believe that poll either, but you look really desparate clinging to the single poll of the year from any polster that had the libs under 53 2PP
7.30 report confirms Neilsen says 57-43 – strangely contradicted by a Galaxy saying 52-48!!!
7:30 claims Libs have porked Monaro to the tune of 100 Million.
The way the media are (quite rightly) stringing up the coalition for their racist little venture in the ‘burbs, the AC Nielsen is a very real possibility. This act undermines any, if any, legitimacy of their fear campaign as baseless smear, and paints them as the desperate gutter politicians that they are. Im thinking my 82ALP prediction will be trampled by the Labor stampede quite early in the night. Hey, here’s hopin.
7.30 Report – if the rusted-on Libs in Eden-Monaro are going for Labor, it’s pretty much all over now.
Jasmine @ 321, Not if you were on my booth. Things in ears are rude if you are engaging with people and will put off voters.
7:30 has lifetime libs in Eden Monaro, positive about Nairn, but going to vote Labor.
My 86 is looking pretty safe LOW side, should have listened to Gus and gone with 106, never reach your targets if you don’t set them.
Look at all the over 50 that are going to vote for Labor in Eden Monaro. “we don’t like the gov, but we like gary nairn” – all over red rover.
G’day Jas
Bet you Randall is sweating, still reckon 4-5 in WA, won’t know till Saturday if he is one of them.
StanS I’m not in your booth, and for the first time in a few elections I’m not the booth captain and I’m not scrutineering. And if the captain wants to send me home from my booth, in WA, in a non-marginal, for listening to the radio, she can. Or he, I have no idea.
Those Union Bosses caught out trying to run the country again.
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/ama-gives-tick-to-coalition-health-plan/20071122-1c7a.html
I like that talk Arbie Jay!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I’d give up Stirling and Hasluck for Canning, I’m sure the party wouldn’t but I would in an instant.
So, are we expecting a Newspoll tomorrow, or Sat?
Geezuz
Why dont the Eden Monarians tell us what they really think!
Doesn’t augur well for the rat.
(7.30 Report)
53.5-54% for Labor looks the most accurate.
Jas
Gus has upped his to 120, Poss told him not to hold back, I reckon 92 with an upper limit of 117.
NEWSPOLL in SATURDAYS Australian! According to Kerry. Now interviewing Liebevic and Greeny!
Wife is chuffed – received Labor party mail, all in Chinese.
jasmine I’m a member of no political party. I will probably vote for Labor for the first time this election (usually I vote for the Greens). I try to keep an open mind though and judge things objectively.
The Eden-Monaro thing is a revelation. My colleague who was earlier wavering out of a dislike of Mike Kelly today has locked into Labor after the pamphlet fiasco.
Sol and Antony on 730 report
Kerry O’Brien says Newspoll is due on Saturday morning then interviews Sol Levovic (sp?) and Anthony Green. Sol states the obvious – Gvt is in trouble.
Let’s hope that this “mood for change” will translate into a landslide on Saturday. It will send a strong message to the far right and racist elements of the Liberal party that “we don’t want your kind of politics in this country”. The reality of course is that the moderate Liberals will pay for this landslide before those who are truly to blame go to the chopping board.
LEPT 388
That is a very interesting observation. Linday is spreading tentacles.
What would put the icing on the demolition cake of this bunch of incompetent white supremicists? Tony Abbott to lose Warringah! You’d be able to hear the collective sigh of relief from an open window.
Don’t mean to rain on the ALP parade here – the polls look great two days out – but don’t expect the Kelly saga to boost numbers. Just as the Burke dinner, Rein business deals, Strippergate or the ear wax tube translated to hard numbers.
57 looks on the high side, I’m in the split the difference camp.
Andrew: there have been plenty of polls showing the Libs under 53
That includes Morgan and Newspoll
I mean 43
Anthony says last newspoll would lead to a labor gain of 100 seats, suggesting that it has been such a bad week for the coalition, a landslide is possible.
‘283@ducko Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 6:59 pm
Herald Sun wants Costello as PM? Are Vics really that parochial?’
Yes, and they have a point if you want Costello to be PM you need a Liberal Win.
On another note I received my second letter in a week from my Blue-ribbon Liberal MP.
I’m inclined to think the result will be around 55-45 for every time a Galaxy poll has shown a swing towards the Liberals the next set of polling from the other pollsters have moved towards the ALP.
Meh never mind, mea culpa for not reading properly, its late, ignore my last 2 posts.
Thanks people. Looks like we’ll probably get 2 good polls on sat
thank god Antony is sane….bloody Sol talking up the economic management and satisfaction rating questions….
Am told The Australian newspaper is editorialising for Rudd tomorrow
Jasmine and StanS:
Which Seat ? I’m in Pearce and will be at the party at the Workshops
The site where Dickie Court did his first act of bastardry as Premier by closing them – the irony is delicious
Nick @ 401, Sol is a tool, full stop. Antony is leaps and bounds ahead of him and his analysis is spot on.
“394
Tim Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 7:52 pm
Don’t mean to rain on the ALP parade here – the polls look great two days out – but don’t expect the Kelly saga to boost numbers. Just as the Burke dinner, Rein business deals, Strippergate or the ear wax tube translated to hard numbers.”
It will, because this is a party on the decline, and it’s yet another reason – and a very familiar one – not to vote for it. It confirms everything that people have feared about sections of the Liberal Party, all the way to the top.
Usually I’d agree Tim but the reaction in my workplace today to the pamphlet was astonishing. Literally everyone was talking about it.
We are coming back!
We are coming back!
Sportingbet has shortened Maxine’s odds today and is now betting on the tightest margin.
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/labors-odds-shorten-in-bennelong/20071122-1c6d.html
John Clarke and Brian Dawe were hilarious!!!!
“oooooooooo!!!! juliagillardjuliagillardjuliagillard…..wooooooo!!!!! she’s got red hair! you know she’s got red hair?”
ah, fantastic
Yes Tabitha, it appears you are ‘coming back’. To the opposition benches.
407
We are coming back 2037?
We are coming back 2057?
clarke and dawe pure gold!!
“407
tabitha Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 7:56 pm
We are coming back!
We are coming back!”
from where?… hospital?…pub?…sniffing glue?
#
407
tabitha Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 7:56 pm
We are coming back to Opposition
We are coming back to Opposition
“Am told The Australian newspaper is editorialising for Rudd tomorrow”
Well if that is true, then it will have been a MAJOR turnaround after all their attempts at trying to bolster Howard’s support all year, not to mention the many smears manufactured against Rudd.
tabitha Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 7:56 pm
We are coming back in 2030!
We are coming back maybe 2050!
As I have said on a previous thread, look at the average of all the final polls when they are in and it will be close to the final result.
2004 Final polls;
ACN: LNP 49 LAB 37
MOR: LNP 45.5 LAB 38.5
NP: LNP 45 LAB 39
GAL: LNP 46 LAB 39
If we take the avg of these we get a result that is WITHIN 1% of the actual primary vote for each party.
AVG of Last polls: LNP 46.375 LAB 38.375
Actual Result: LNP 46.7 LAB 37.6
407 [We are coming back!
We are coming back!]
We’ve been telling you for months that the Liberals are coming back to the opposition benches. Why do you think there is so much excitement around here everyone agrees with you on this point.
“407
tabitha Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 7:56 pm
We are coming back!
We are coming back!”
Of course, you are darling, of course you are. Now settle down – you’ve just had a bad dream, but mummy and daddy are in the next room and we’ll come in to check on you throughout the night. And remember – you’ve got Glen’s party on the weekend, so you don’t want to be sad, do you? Here’s a big kiss from mummy and me – now you go back to sleepy bo-bos. And we’ll keep the hall light on for you. Good night.
OK … did anyone hear Antony tonight on the 7:30 report? Words out of his own mouth – “if the ACN is replicated on Satuday night, I can call the election before the polls close in QLD.” [ i.e NSW, VIC and TAS will deliver 16 seats on their own]
bring it on
it is open season on the bar in our house
Tabitha,
Have you finished shredding all the pamphlets yet?
Golly – didn’t Red Kerry look pleased tonight. Antony Green was being very diplomatic too. I think Antony wanted to say that the Galaxy poll was crap but he was being more professional than that.
umm, mikem?
#419
You have got soft while o/s.
Tab stfu!
cancel that…soz
any election parties in dobell?
Crush the Libs utterly without a single hint of mercy!!!
Clark and Dawe just summed up not only Howard’s election campaign, but I reckon a pretty big part of the last 11 years. Classic stuff. The only downside of the Rodent’s coming demise is never seeing Dawe saying “Welcome Mr Howard” ever again.
Alex, it certainly looked like Antony almost said that. I wonder how much inside information they know?
Seriously the anticipation is killing me. This result will either be the biggest dissappointment ever or the end to the nightmare.
Antony Green was unhappy about not being able to call it by 6:30pm lol!
If the ALP is to win, it HAS to do it before WA.
All this wating up for WA cr*p. There won’t be any point, if it’s got to that stage the ALP is gone.
The Oz gets on the Galaxy bus:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22802562-601,00.html
Re 382,
TofK Says:
Morgan tomorrow. Newspoll on Saturday. That was on the ABC news or the 7:30 report, can’t remember which.
How many of youse has to do scrutineering? Never done it before, but I will be extra careful ‘cos methinks that there will be some nasty little liberals at play. Any advise would be greatly appreciated.
422 – Alex
Actually, Antony did say the Galaxy poll was crap, but did it in such a way that defamation charges can not be laid upon him.
Ah, how the ABC must master the arts of diplomacy!
Jasie, Arbie, Gusface could turn out to be the true geneius.
Steve thanks for the link about betting in Bennelong The bet mentioned at the bottom is interesting 2.50 for any other seat except for the ones mentioned above it for what will be the most marginal seat after the election. Stats guy hear should let us know if that is a good bet because if you had a outlier swing in any of the other seat either way, any seat could up as the most marginal after the election.
Love this from the Herald Sun:
”Then there’s the experience factor: of the likely Rudd frontbench, only a couple of the shadow ministry have experienced government … ”
Ok, guess they’re in favour of a dictatorship now.
Pathetic.
Yes Grog at 322
The Adelaide Advertiser phone poll.
Ok, I’m feeling a bit guilty for not having made a serious comment for a while, and I think some water needs to be thrown on the Galaxy vs ACN fire. As is often the case, I think possum’s analysis on this was best. When everyone else’s eyeballs were popping out of their heads, possum said that this is “the business as usual we’ve all come yawn about”.
He’s right. Both polls are within the MoE of a 54.5-45.5 trend, and it just so happens that we’ve got two outliers at opposite ends of the MoE coming out at the same time, and because there’s a discrepancy, everyone gets their knickers in a knot. Nothing much has changed. The despicable Lindsaygate of this morning may or may not lose the Coalition some votes, but it sure as hell won’t win them any. The ALP will still get 53-55% of the 2PP vote on Saturday and the number of seats they’ll win will still have a 9 in front of it. The only way I can see things changing is if the LNP dig themselves bigger and worse holes in the next 36 hours. At their current rate, I wouldn’t put it past them.
TofK i am scrutineering in Chisholm for the Libs. Never done it before either but aside from carefully doing my job ill make sure to crack jokes about the Greens with the Family First people lol!
The GG has to advertise for Rudd, cause they want to stay the GG.
Yep, will definitely be watching the ABC on Saturday. I want to see O’Brien and Middleton cry and Green smash his laptop to pieces.
Thommo
On your theory about Lib late big spend. Depends who holds the purse strings and what is driving them. Maybe Howard calls the shots and the Lib director cannot say no to him even if he wants to. After all just 8 weeks ago the cabinet all told Howard to go and he stayed. Maybe the Lib director only cares about saturday night not future debt. Many ways to look at it.
433,
You will only have to watch over the HOR count. The members office will require you to call in periodic updates. Once the HOR count is done for your party, you are good to go.
I worked the NSW state election from the AEC side in March. We had scrutineers for the Liberal and Labor candidates. The Liberal bloke was able to leave as soon as his votes were counted. Twice as many Labor votes in our booth (safe Labor seat at both state and federal levels) so the lady there for the Labor candidate had to stay around longer. Senate votes are separated into piles for each party but NOT counted. They are collected and delivered to a central location and that count takes some number of days to turn out. Scrutineers are only for HOR votes.
htth
441 [TofK i am scrutineering in Chisholm for the Libs.]
It will be an eyeopener for you Glen and a good education as well. There will be no jokes from Libs on Saturday night Glen just look and weep.
Nick @ 439
since we are dealing with a 95% confidence level and two polls the chances of that happening is 0.25% or 5% of 5%. Not at all likely.
lol what about Gillard, Steven??
This 2PP result indicates a Labor Primary around 48-49 and a Coalition Primary of 40 or less. If so, this is a return to earlier levels recorded by ACN and matches the trends in Newspoll’s state-by-state by state results. The Coalition seemed to pick up some support at the expense of minor parties early in the campaign, but their support has dissipated again as the campaign has continued. This must reflect the passing of events – especially the launches, the interest rate rise and the general collapse of the coalition campaign themes and messages, compared with the very tight game run by Labor.
It all still points to a result above 55% 2PP for Labor – an excellent outcome.
Dont be hard on Sol, Sol was just answering Kerry’s question on the matter, you could tell Sol knew what was happenin’
Have fun Glen. I’m sure we’ll look like a pair of headless chooks. Unless your good at bluffing
Of course the Australian and the Tele have endorsed Krudd – Rupert told them to because he stands to make gazillions from Labor’s broadband policy. I’m actually really surprised the Herald Sun is backing the Coalition. It could just be an attempt to make the stable appear balanced.
the thing is Lindsay saga has changed everything
so the 52/48 result can be discounted IMO
TofK yeah i agree it will be fun, plus we’ll both be able to laugh at the Democrats and thank them for their votes lol!
herald sun endorsed howard – is rupert schizo?
new thread – can someone come on board for Williams new experiment
Yes, the NSW libs right faction are the nastiest piece of work in the party nationally. This is Howards faction, need more be said?
Is the Australian backing Rudd. On its website it only states who the tele and sun are backing.
Oops i mean his dress rehearsal for Saturday night
“This is the sweetest victory of all.
This is a victory for the true believers”
- John Winston Howard, 24th November 2007
“452
blacklight Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 8:15 pm
the thing is Lindsay saga has changed everything”
This is true.
What I want to know, then, is how many of these leaflets were distributed – a couple of streets’ worth, I think – and (which is harder) how much of a swing will they have delivered to the Labor Party.
We can then do the calculations – say, 1 poorly printed leaflet is worth 1,000 votes. Or 5,000 even.
Liberals of Lindsay – a Relaxed and Comfortable Nation Salutes You!
Re the editorials, Rupert doesn’t give a damn about who wins, he just WANTS TO SELL NEWSPAPERS AND MAKE LOTS OF MONEY!!
I didn’t think that Vics were that parochial – nobody could like Tip surely?
I don’t believe The Australian will back Rudd. Is it confirmed?
I guess the LNP trolls got lonely over on the Galaxy thread.
tabitha Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 8:18 pm
“What the f#!k happened?”
- John Winston Howard, 24th November 2007
I still don’t think they will get more than 105 seats :=)
Good on Galaxy for their bogus 52/48 poll result, push those remaining undecided to think, hey if we want change we better definitely vote for Rudd. maybe the result will now be 57/43 after all!
is that before qld and wa
On The Herald Sun’s support for Howard, its editor Bruce Guthrie – former editor of hard-left Sunday Age – was on Melbourne radio strongly implying he was going to be arguing vigourously for a pro-Rudd editorial but he noted that would be overturning many elections precedent when the paper backed the Coalition.
On Galaxy’s past shady form they will produce another poll on Saturday more in line with reality. After this latest poll I am sure they will put in an effort to get it right in the end on election day.
tabitha Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 8:18 pm
“I told you this old prick couldn’t win”
- Peter Costello, 24th November 2007
Galaxy is disgusting. I agree that they will do another poll now to be released on the morning covering their arses with a 55/56 Labor lead.
Poor old Galaxy, this might have been a story if it weren’t for Kelly and then ACN to keep them honest.
Galaxy should be ignored.
tabitha Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 8:18 pm
“Can I please be Leader of the Opposition again”
- Dolly Downer, 24th November 2007
Julie are you in the seat of Lowe as I am ? If so I think we know each other!!! Our kids went to the same public school.
tabitha Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 8:18 pm
“What a load of Bulls**t”
- Tony Abbott, 24th November 2007
The minimum Labor will get is 53%
The most probable is 54.5%
Who knows the level of effect the Kelly Gang’s coming out of retirement is going to have? ANY soft/wavering Liberal will probably jump to Labor and the undecideds will follow the trend and, now also the negative impression hanging over the LNP.
God, the book on this election is going to be fun to read.
Stephen Kaye. I agree about Rupe and broadband. Fairfax has been strategically shifting it’s revenue mix from dwindling newspaper advertising to a greater exposure to online. Rupe wants to leverage his brands in the same way. Broadband for all is exactly what he wants. and its not just newspaper content and real estate… he wants to be able to deliver movies on demand straight to your house so he can get better value out of Fox etc… he knows who to back.
“Question: Could we have tried harder for working families?
Answer: No we gave it our all but it wasn’t enough”
“Question: Will Labor abandon the fight for working families ?
Answer: Not while I am leader of this great party”
- Kevin Rudd 24 November 2007
I can’t believe I’m reading this. Steven Kaye thinks Rupert Murdoch is promoting bias against the Liberal Party?
I’m actually going to mimic Stephen on this one. Can anyone confirm the Australian is running their editorial for Rudd? I don’t believe it.
tabitha Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 8:18 pm
“Guess it’s back to working at Dad’s old petrol station”
- John Howard, 24th November 2007
Remember Murdoch chases and doesn’t lead public opinion.
In the 2004 US Election the tight polls forced him to give money to both Bush and Kerry! He couldn’t have afforded *not* to have paid the winner. Trouble is it’s hard to tell the winner when it’s close. This election isn’t and he’s backing Rudd.
Does anyone know a single soul who has voted according to a Murdoch editorial? Didn’t think so.
Murdoch papers are great for toilet paper and kitty litter and not much else I’m afraid!
#478
tabitha Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 8:25 pm
“Question: Could we have stuck it harder up the Libs?
Answer: No we gave it more than enough”
“Question: Will Labor abandon Howard’s extreme policies ?
Answer: While I am leader of this great Nation we will”
- Kevin Rudd 24 November 2007
Re 474,
Vote1Maxine Says:
“Julie are you in the seat of Lowe as I am ? If so I think we know each other!!! Our kids went to the same public school.”
No, I live in Werriwa in SW Sydney (West Hoxton). Moving to Canberra (Chisholm, ACT) in January so will get ACT elections in October 08.
Should be fun seeing a 68 year old conveyancing clerk
Letp. Both the GG and the DT have been subtley (i know. its not what they are known for) shifting their position… been happening for about two weeks now. I caught Penberthy on live blog on DT, he was not favouring Lib at all. This was over a week ago and it was the first clue that i picked up. I’ve been watching it since and its definitely been shifting.
Be quick to check this one out.
http://www.domain.com.au/Public/PropertyDetails.aspx?adid=2006832414
once in a lifetime opportunity
Nick #439 is correct The Galaxy and AC Neilson can be explained away as being at the extremes of the MoE. Calm down everyone it is still 54.5% ALP 2PP.
Howard’s haunted look at the National press club said it all. When the goings on in Lindsay it sinks in with voters (right across Australia) it is going to get ugly for the Coalition on Saturday. Howard is Cactus.
I’m putting the Champagne in ice.
Kina,
Good call. You’re in line with Graham Richardson who’s obviously seen extensive internal polling of marginals.
voted here in london on wednesday night. a good 30 min wait in the queue in the rain to get into the embassy. for what it’s worth, i’d say there were far more people with green/alp how-to-vote cards than liberal. surely the split of people living abroad would be something like 70-30 conservative-progressive.
also, there was actually a girl handing out democrat pamphlets. i found that quite amusing.
Sorry Julie. The Julie I know who works for the AEC lives in Lowe. But as a Labor supporter I reckon you must be alright
. Good luck with the move.
Stephen @ 446, I don’t really get what you’re saying, please elaborate.
Can someone please tell Sol that if you combine these facts together, there is one logical conclusion based on all polls:
1. Howard preferred for best economic manager
2. Rudd preferred as PM
3. Labor are going to win comfortably
The conclusion is simple: Being seen as the best economic manager is NOT THE MOST IMPORTANT THING. THERE IS MORE TO A PM THAN ECONOMICS AND THAT IS WHY HOWARD WILL LOSE.
Put another way “ITS NOT THE ECONOMY, STUPID!”
Sorry, just felt I had to get that off my chest.
Stephen I’d like to see you justify this post on your blog:
http://ozdemocracy.com/?p=49#more-49
“The result of this poll got me thinking, why are ACNielsen and Newspoll coming up with historic swings and others polls are not. Surely if there is an historic swing on then all the polls should be showing the same. One possible answer I came up with was union involvement. I am not sure of this but I would expect most of the workers at Newspoll and ACNielsen are union members. It would not be hard to move every 10th Coalition vote to Labor or have a list of friendly numbers to call.”
Is that what you seriously believe?
The Lindsay pamphlet scandal made it on to BBC World television news.
*************************
Don’t underestimate the capacity of some dim-wit swinging voters to walk away from the huge publicity over the pamphlet scandal with the following take-away message:
“Oh, Labor supports Muslim extremists. I knew it all along.”
GG @402,
What is your source for that info? Cheers
Howard at the end of every sentence of his conceding defeat speech.
Rudd from 6.30 sat night.
Tabitha is Elly-May Clampet.
Must be some fairly upset Liberal voters out there – this is the best result I have seen for Labor supporting question at this site – which usually gives about 50/50
http://pulse.ninemsn.com.au/result/74/
Re 487,
Vote1Maxine Says:
No, when I said that I worked the AEC side of things, I was an employee but just on the day for the election. I was a “casual”
tabitha Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 8:18 pm
“BUT, BUT, BUT I AM INVINCIBLE??????”
- John Howard, 24th November 2007
Lose the election please,
Stephen makes stuff up on his site and elsewhere all the time. Yesterday he was claiming he had access to the internal polls of both the Liberal and Labor Parties. He’s full of it. The gall he has to call his site ‘ozdemocracy’. What a joke.
Diogenes @ 489: I think we were all thinking that, thanks very much. If I could just muse on the same subject:
Despite the ALP being significantly ahead on the primary vote, 2PP vote, leaders approval rating, as well as the question of who best manages health and education and a few other things I forgot to mention, Howard’s lead in preferred economic manager is apparently reason to talk up the election as if it’s going to be a contest for yet another bloody day.
has this been mentioned here today?
Jackie Kelly is one of the Channel 7 hard hitting team for their election night broadcast.
does anyone thik she will appear?
Can anyone actually give me a reason to dismiss the Galaxy poll other than they’re ‘biased’ or push polling?
Do we know any details about the size, primaries etc?
Wow. Good on CH7, they really have a light weight line up…
http://www.domain.com.au/Public/PropertyDetails.aspx?adid=2006832414#
Property for sale!
Thanks to Lomandra on Possum.
Is there a precedent for the single handed destruction of a political party of the orders of magnitude being conjoured up here?
I find the considerable margins being discussed implausible in a country as conservative as Australia.
Sorry that’s Diogenes @ 492 I was referring to.
tabitha Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 8:18 pm
“Love or Hate me, I am the best EX PM this country has ever seen.”
- Dolly Downer, 24th November 2007
There’s no particularly good reason to dismiss either ACN or Galaxy Yo Ho Ho. The only things that make either doubtful is that Galaxy looks a touch too low and ACN a touch too high. Newspoll will be interesting. I’m thinking it’ll come out at around 53/47.
tabitha Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 8:18 pm
“Love or Hate me, I am the best EX PM this country has ever seen.”
- John Howard, 24th November 2007
501 Nick- I think Sol looked genuinely puzzled at how the favoured economic manager could lose so badly. The Rodent thinks the same as do most of the LNP. They just don’t get it. There is more to life than greed. I honestly think Howie, when he loses, is just not going to understand and neither will most of his party.
Is Antony stirring when he says he’ll call it before QLD closes or we’ll be awaiting the sandgropers? If HE doesn’t really know (based partly on one Galaxy which may be an outlier) then how can muggins (me) be expected to sleep easy? Happy pills?
I got this letter from Kevin Rudd’s office today. I’d thought I share it with you all. In part.
When the ballot box close,the after party for the Griffith campaign team will be held @ Suncorp Stadium from 6pm. Please accept my invitation to come to the after party – &,if you like,bring a guest as well.
This will be a nationally televised event so I would encourage you to attend & wear your Kevin 07 gear.
Kind regards ….. Kevin Rudd.
Can’t wait
!!!
Even John H*ward has finally conceeded defeat tonight. Hyacinth has listed their home on Domain.com http://www.domain.com.au/Public/PropertyDetails.aspx?adid=2006832414#
Kirribilli Removals has been telling us for ages now that he was booked for the 25th some time ago….
WHy would news Ltd commission Galaxy to do a nation-wide poll that will just compete with thier newspoll this Saturday?
I think the Galaxy will only be relevent to hand-picked marginals, basically an update of thier last one
HarryH @ 502: I saw that in the paper today and nearly spat my dinner onto it. I think Channel 7 will be mighty unimpressed with Ms Kelly’s behaviour today, and if I was running the show at Ch 7 I think I’d be telling her she wasn’t welcome come Saturday night and finding myself another Liberal MP to fill her seat. Then again, if I was running the show at channel 7 I probably wouldn’t run coverage of an election without any political journos, but hey, that’s just me.
Pretty unlikely that the two final polls for two companies would both produce extreme results at either end of their MOEs don’t you think? The apriori probability for this is v v small (I think it’s 0.05 x 0.05 x 2 = 0.005 – once every 200 elections!)
One has to be suspicious that there is a systemic problem with one of the polls. The problem is that both were pretty good in 2004….
I think this year there’s going to be significant exit polling so that the election will be sort of called at 6pm (AEDT) sharp. Just like they do in France when polling closes at 8pm. Their networks have never been wrong with exit polls.
It’s much more dramatic than the drawn out slow death (ie 2hrs) H*ward would otherwise receive Sat night.
aussieguru. if only! i’ve been trying to work out how to crash his election night shindig.
Aussieguru01 WTF See I TOLD YOU RUDD WAS FULL OF HUBRIS RENTING OUT SUNCORP BHAGAGAHHHHHHHHH!
Pity he didnt do it before hand like Kinnock!
“I respect the judgement of the Australian people and tonight after a good old fashioned Labor wake we recommit ourselves to keeping the Government accountable and fighting the good fight for working families”
- Kevin Rudd November 24th 2007
I reckon it’s doubtful that it’ll be called before the Qld closes, since so many of the likely gains will come from there. But by the time WA shuts the doors, it might be a different story.
Howard: Why do I hate him so?
As a middle class professional living in North Sydney, a net beneficiary of the orgy of tax cuts since 2000 it seems reasonable to ponder all the reasons why I don’t like Howard.
It comes down to a question of values.
1. Opportunity: Unlike Howard I actually believe in the “fair go”. I don’t care who you are, you should have access to decent education and health care, an opportunity to be part of a decent community. Subsiding private health insurance while simultaneously starving the public system of funds is obscene. Lavishing funds on wealthy elite private schools while government schools can’t afford basic maintenance is equally abhorrent.
2. Leadership. One hopes in vain for true leadership, that is a government that takes a long-term view. Climate change is a classic example of a failure of leadership, as is the Iraq war. A strong alliance with the USA and Asia makes sense. Blind obedience to wilful stupidity does not. I am appalled at the fawning allegiance to the worst US president in living memory. GW Bush needed a reality check. Instead, our government enthusiastically fuelled the fire.
3. Morality. There are invisible lines you simply cannot cross in my book. There are many examples in the past 11 years but this one is emblematic for me. No Australian government worthy of the name can be complicit in the detention of an Australian citizen without charge on the flimsiest of evidence in the most appalling circumstances for 5 years. To all those buffoons who shout “terrorist!” I’m sorry but f*ck off and die. If David Hicks had actually done something wrong he should have been tried in a proper court of law – not some kangaroo court. This pathetic behaviour makes us all vulnerable to executive caprice (cf. Dr. Haneef).
4. Accountability. Governments are going to make mistakes, granted. But when you do stuff up, you need to accept responsibility, apologise, and put matters right (cf. Peter Beattie). The serial evasion, nobody told me, no-one is responsible of the Howard years make me sick. Howard govt. ministers are a pack of bloody liars and deserve all the odium that will be heaped upon them on Saturday.
So there it is, only some of the reasons, but more than enough.
A government that favours privilege over ability, that has abandoned leadership for sycophancy, that eschews basic morality and that is completely unaccountable richly deserves to be thrown bodily into the dustbin of history. Amen.
ps And you can stick your tax cuts up your backside!
Samuel K I have to agree. I tried suggesting this one time though and was shot down.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/071119/2/15082.html
Hyacinth’s sale is now making news on Yahoo7 !
“F*ck I am sick of that Tabitha stooge”
- Samuel K November 22nd 2007
” Where the f&ck is Gartrell I want his ar*e he promised me I would be Prime Minister”
- Kevin Rudd (off camera) 24th November 2007
Make a bet with you LTEP.
I say Newspoll is closer to ACNs 57/43 than Galaxys 52/48.
The loser leaves poll bludger site.
Newspoll will have phoned last night and tonight – and caught the impact of the Mujslim outrage on every TV news broadcast in Australia. Cant see Labors 2pp lower than 55.
Newspoll will have 53-47 i think
Diogenes @ 511, you’re probably right. Not only is it unimportant, but it’s a badly worded question which I think inherently favours an incumbent government, rendering it pretty useless as an election predictor.
Average Joe Polled doesn’t know much about how each party will run the economy, so you might as well go with the one who’s are running it at the moment than the one that hasn’t had a go for over a decade. I think it was Laurie Oakes (someone correct me if I’m wrong) said on telly the other day that the question is badly worded and really should be “Will Kevin Rudd stuff up the economy?”
I think the answer from the electorate based on the fact that the majority of them will be voting for him, is no.
Volunteer for Rudd in Griffith Middle Man!
Glen,
What is scurutineering?
tabitha Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 8:18 pm
“I am pleased to announce my future plans after tonight: Hyacinth and I will be heading off to Baghdad to take up the position of Honorary Consul. Prime Minister Rudd has graciously offered me this position as he understands my ongoing love and commitment to the War in Iraq.”
- John Howard, 24th November 2007
Yes Centre, it’s time for LTEP to finally put up or shut up.
LTEP will be like Galaxy Saturday night – a bit fat irrelevancy, linked to the Coalition HQ.
re: the liberal staffers getting caught : I’ve said this in another thread…
http://www.ozelection2007.info/forums/viewtopic.php?pid=34140#p34140
You know what I reckon? I reckon it was authorized, and it was Egan that tipped em off. Egan doesn’t dispute doing it… he disputes it being unauthorized.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/s … 21,00.html
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22799667-5001021,00.html
I’m not a gambler and I won’t leave this website unless William asks me to.
Just a hugh amont of volunteers Glenn!!! LOL LOL LOL !!!
Well said Maurico. There are a lot of people who agree with you. I also hope that many of your fellow voters in North Sydney agree. It would be great if Hockey – the voice of WorkChoices – lost his seat.
(Of course, I won’t mention that I also put a small bet on Hockey losing to Bailey).
i’m busy that day unfortunately. i’m actually in Griffith. not far from his house. maybe i could help with some lifting of equipment etc in the morning.
523 Maurico- I agree totally. I’m in much the same position. I would be much, much better off financially with the Rodents top bracket tax cuts but I would gladly give them up and more to live in a better country which is not an international embarrassment.
I think Newspoll will be around 54/46 though. Which would put it just a smidgen closer to Galaxy. Still not going to leave if I’m wrong though.