Not sure where he heard this, but the more than reliable Possum Comitatus hears tomorrow’s ACNielsen will show 55-45.
UPDATE: Now the Channel Seven News tells us it’s 57-43. Either ACNielsen or Galaxy are going to look at bit silly come Sunday.
| TWO-PARTY | PRIMARY | ||||
| ALP | LNP | ALP | LNP | ||
|
Nov 23
|
57 | 43 | ? | ? | |
|
Nov 16
|
54 | 46 | 47 | 43 | |
|
Nov 2
|
55 | 45 | 48 | 41 | |
|
Oct 19
|
54 | 46 | 48 | 42 | |
|
Oct 6
|
56 | 44 | 47 | 40 | |
|
Sep 8
|
57 | 43 | 49 | 39 | |
|
Aug 11
|
55 | 45 | 46 | 41 | |
|
Jul 14
|
58 | 42 | 49 | 39 | |
|
Jun 16
|
57 | 43 | 48 | 39 | |
|
May 19
|
58 | 42 | 48 | 39 | |
|
April 21
|
58 | 42 | 50 | 37 | |
1,408 Comments
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All hail King Possum
Much more in line with expected.
Fascinating to see the media spin on all this!
One says 55-45 and the other says 52-48… shows that the polls are so unreliable, really.
Possum knows all.. now chill out my labor voting friends. General Wenck is not going to bust through.
Some polling companies will have some major egg on their faces
Oh please let it be so.
55-45 is a malling… i can relax now…
It will be interesting to see the differences in primaries most of all before we jump to any conclusions
Same as usual…
The leaflet scandal has gotta be worth 1-2 points as well…
Please note that Possums also stated about the Galaxy 52% poll:
“they’ve been the stand up polling comedian all year.”
The average of the last major polls last time was a very accurate predictor of the actual result…
I’ll tell you all who i think will win after I see the Poll AEC are doing on Saturday.
Yes, my prediction from the most consistent and independent pollster.
Jes-a-len-ko
Yo- byo-tay
Not sure whether I posted this earlier but Kellygate reminds me of Ralph Willis releasing the fake Costello letter in ‘96 – something which Keating forever blamed for his defeat (somewhat unfairly)
Just asked Poss to drop by this thread and provide some substantiation – not that I don’t trust him implicitly, just seeking confirmation…
I think we can leave thecoalition optimists and ALP concern trolls in a Galaxy far far away.
This popped up on my iGoogle home page today…
To predict the behaviour of ordinary people in advance, you only have to assume that they will always try to escape a disagreeable situation with the smallest possible expenditure of intelligence.
– Friedrich Nietzsche
I think it sums up the antics in Lindsay today.
And with Nielsen on 55-45 things are humming along nicely for a Labor victory.
Phew- thanks Possum!
remember the difference between recent Galaxy and Newspoll marginal polls. This is no different. A look across all four polls (maybe not Morgan) will be the best guide.
Has Galaxy come up with this 52-48 in their polls in the last, say, 6 months?!?
If this is just another fresh poll (with 1-2k sample size), I wouldn’t take it seriously.
By now pollsters should announce their aggregated poll, weighting over the last few months. That would be more convincing.
Oakes might have a early leak on ACN. He’ll be worth watching anyway
Phew!
52-48 or 50-50 just couldn’t have been right. This is more like it.
Come Sat 57-43 should be the go after Lindsaygate
Being Tabitha.
Possum’s amazing
Possum’s unfailing
Regardless of what the polls say now we know it simply couldn’t be 52/48
The LNP have had the worst campaign possible and Labor has been on song throughout. Galaxy have been low most of the year whilst Newspoll and Nielsen have backed each other reasonably well – and that has been until very recently 54-55, which the Morgan phone poll backs. The lowest it could be right now is 53/47.
If anything Howard’s vote should go backwards and if it gets anyworse 55/45 may well end up the election result.
FFS, 52:48, even if it was true, would get Labor elected comfortablty.
21,
Well worth watching.
I want to see a reprisal of his a.m show 
Only if the swing was uniform though Spiros.
Actually Spiros, that’s not right. It would be exceedingly close at 52:48. Due to the anture of things, Labor needs slightly higher vote than theL/NP jsut to break even.
Glen 57 — Labor would win most of the time with 52 even assuming a non-uniform swing. Although they would miss some low swing seats, they would also pick up some above the average swing.
Well of course it’s always possible the scare campaign finally broke through. It has before.
When the Daily Terror endorses Labor, then you know the game is over for the Govt. So be relax and comfortable, as the man would tell you.
For those who think these national polls are meaningless, lest we forget………Graham Richardson would have access to far more extensive internal Labor Party polling of marginal seats, and Sunday night on Nine he called it 80 seats for Labor.
Richo has been on the money calling the result correctly for 30 years. If anything he would be prone to offer a conservative prediction.
No Glen, you’ve got it completely backwards. If the swing was uniform, then Labor might not get up with 52:48, according to the pendulum.
But the swing will not be uniform. We know that already from the state polling.
Newspoll and ACN release polls regularly election or no election. Galaxy pops its head up 2 months before an election then disappears.
I reckon Briggs reads tea leaves and hopes some sucker believes him. Didn’t work in the Qld election – he reckoned the Nats were a real chance.
52-48 could be right, why do people discount it. Galaxy have no doubt asked a bunch of voters the questions, done the maths and this is thier result. I do not much go for the theory that polling companies much around with results other than the fact the chose to round the numbers instead of giving us a decimal point.
I just think treating all the polls as one sample is far more accurate and history has shown that to be the case. Please use reason and stop sounding like Colingwood supporters who wont see things objectively and in context.
The interpretation of these polls (if true) is simple: 53.5 +/- MOE, which is what many of us have been saying all along.
55\45 would seem to concur with the price being offered by the various betting agencies.
There is no way in the world that the ALP 2pp vote on election night will be anything less than 53 – and that would be their worst result in the current polling and political climate. It’s been locked in too far for too long – and the Libs campaign this last week has been shite. Anything less than 54 on the night would be a turn up.
A poster on Poss’ blog says he got the ACN figure from Radio National. Can anyone confirm this?
Yes Daniel B, I agree. If ACN and Newspoll come in at 53+ then it would be hard to believe that the actual result will be much lower than 53.
Saw the PM on Ten news looked very desperate begging for votes, we are a good government, the case for change has not been made, yet another lie.
People dismiss Galaxy because they’re afraid it could be right. My feeling is it’ll be closer to Galaxy than ACN on the night.
9 News Sydney opening with PamphletGate…
LTEP
You would say that.
I’ll believe the ACN result when I read it in the papers.
After reading Possum’s site, I don’t think he is giving the 55-45 figure from an authoritative source.
Happy to be proved wrong.
forget the polls gentlemen
stick with the punters, they are correct all time time
the they say $1.2x / $4.x
Just keeping some balance. I still think the polls point to a likely ALP victory, but I think it’ll be extremely tight and not even the parties can tell how its going to go.
Galaxy has proved itself as unreliable as dodgy leaflet in a Liberal Party bunker. Remember the Galaxy outlier produced to bolster the PM when he was under threat some months ago: then it was secured by using push polling questions before the poll was taken to produce a better result for the Coalition. Other polls round the time were telling a different story. Was this latest Galaxy Poll preceded by dubious questions?
LTEP 42
Closer to Galaxy than ACN means 53:47, which is a runaway win.
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