Not sure where he heard this, but the more than reliable Possum Comitatus hears tomorrow’s ACNielsen will show 55-45.
UPDATE: Now the Channel Seven News tells us it’s 57-43. Either ACNielsen or Galaxy are going to look at bit silly come Sunday.
| TWO-PARTY | PRIMARY | ||||
| ALP | LNP | ALP | LNP | ||
|
Nov 23
|
57 | 43 | ? | ? | |
|
Nov 16
|
54 | 46 | 47 | 43 | |
|
Nov 2
|
55 | 45 | 48 | 41 | |
|
Oct 19
|
54 | 46 | 48 | 42 | |
|
Oct 6
|
56 | 44 | 47 | 40 | |
|
Sep 8
|
57 | 43 | 49 | 39 | |
|
Aug 11
|
55 | 45 | 46 | 41 | |
|
Jul 14
|
58 | 42 | 49 | 39 | |
|
Jun 16
|
57 | 43 | 48 | 39 | |
|
May 19
|
58 | 42 | 48 | 39 | |
|
April 21
|
58 | 42 | 50 | 37 | |
1,408 Comments
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Middleman I rarely catch the citycat. Though it is fun. Great to take reallies/friends out at night time. The rivers swings make it for a super fun ride.
In any case I would be like Rudd. Folks who live around Galloways Hill are hard done buy. The City cats do not spot on our ferry stop. We have to put up with the old ferrymanboats
There is a certain end of school term feeling tonight, but where is Hugo and Oakeshott Country, 2 long termers who seem to have gone in the last couple of weeks.
Drop by the west any time for a shiraz Glen
ESJ – you’re right. Either that or it’s the night before we go over the top, Battle of the Somme style.
The Iemma Government in N.S.W is abysmal. It can’t be a coincidence Morris has been hidden for the entire election campaign. This Royal North Shore Hospital business is scandalous! I suspect after November 24, Reba Meagher and a few other dud ministers will be for the chop.
Laurie Oakes predicts that the ALP will pick up 20 seats
Cos somehow, someway, Toby was logged in to my computer. Either that, or there is something wrong with the pollbludger framework.
Howard Hater although i dont think Deputy Dawg would of been a bad PM had Howard retired ‘hurt’ i still think he’d have been slammed especially since Labor have some HR Nichols stuff on him and it would have been easy for the ALP to undermine him with advertisement.
Howard Hater i do believe that hindsight shall be golden and we’ll all say what they should of done after the election but by then one side yours or mine shall be bitterly disappointed and the other jubilant.
Gary Humphries has already jumped on a life boat off SS Howie by the sounds of things, must be really bad internal polling to make him say that
Dangerous – where?
yeah that is a pain. we’re getting a new stop in Jan. at the end of Apollo Road. walking distance for me.
our old ferryman boat is nice for a romantic dinner over at teneriffe…
Glen – Sorry to be so ignorant, but what has Humphries done?
Kjin, MM lets stick together. Us Giffites are about to make MP into a PM !!
Trevor @1101
Re: The Sunrise Program, If Helen does not say Coalition won the week, then I guarantee “Mel” will do it. She’s a toff elitist masquerading as, you know, just a mom who’s got a part-time job at @ $200,000+ per year. As your average mom does.
Yes, Meagher is deeply uninspiring. Iemma is no fool (although seemingly a totally incompetent Premier) and I reckon he’ll put her in charge of Sewerage or something once the RNS inquiry is over.
Richards Jones
No worries I am a Rudd Battler
and in spite of it all I will keep carrying on
That ’smart nugget’ said that people voting Labor should vote for him in the Senate for accountability as he thinks the ALP are going to win (rolls eyes in disbelief)
Is it just me, or are those Newspoll figures a bit hard to follow?
Why dont things add to 100 today?
And whos leading in WA?
And why is Vic swinging like a key party hostess every time I look at a state breakdown?
These questions and more.
Dyno – don’t knock sewerage. We’d all be in the s#*t without it
Good on ya Glen!
Mike Baird would make a good N.S.W Liberal leader, but the right of the party will never accept him.
Off to bed! See ya all tomorrow!
At this late stage I’d like to pitch in for the Beecroft (far south eastern) province of Berowra.
Downj these ways we are Ruddock Haters. Beecroft Primary School ran what from memory was the highest swing AGAINST Rudd in the 2004 election.
We Lefties down this way would like to think the good Labor performance in our local area of an otherwise safe Lib seat is our natural persuasive genius that is exhibited when we walk our dogs and stop to chat politics with comely neighbourettes and Tennis Mums on the streets of sunny Beecroft.
Glen – yes, that counts as jumping ship, I’d say.
K Jin, AG01. I saw someone on Possum suggest that Griffith will have the biggest swing of the night. That wouldn’t surprise me. Rudd could end up with a massive margin.
1127 William QLD 54-44???
56/44 supposedly in Qld.
It shall be interesting to see how the minor parties do because the different polling groups have virtually no votes for the minors and yet others like galaxy do.
I don’t want the greens having the balance of power whoever wins, where are the democrats when u need em?
Why would Newspoll leak 24 hours before they publish them? I’m sure they pump them out as early as they can to STOP them leaking – Headline number on Sky then Lateline then the GG is the usual order.
CLdF,
Boom boom!
I reckon over 70% territory. If not close to it!
Although I’ll take 54-46 on polling day
Up hear in QLD
I am just watching lateline
and the man from amnesty is defending tactics in Lindsay
WAS THAT IN THE PLAN.
‘Dad he spat on the bowser.’
William,
Did you mean the Newspoll results to be as follows:
Lab/Lib: NSW: 54-46; QLD: 56-44; VIC: 52-48; SA: 55-45; WA: 48-52; Total 54-46.
Humprheys is so desperate it is almost funny.
Has ads out saying he has a plan for water to solve the shortages, so we’re suffering this drought and he has had this plan all along to solve it all and only now decides to tell us.
Nairn is the same, I have plan, I can fix it all.
Couple of snake oil salesmen
same here CL de 56%in QLD would be fantasy land.
Dyno – they usually leave the sewerage to engineers. It’s safer that way.
Thats the number i was thinking of… it shoudl definitely be >70%.
Glen @1175,
The GST ate them.
Grog – 56% in Qld is like 66% anywhere else
I think we can agree Griffith will be a much safer seat than Bennelong after November 24 LOL
Well Meg Lees did that GG.
K Jin I thought you really meant someone from amnesty! doh! but it was death you were referring to.
Hi Possum,
Thanks for putting the site together – it’s turned me from politically active but poll inert to both politically and poll alert. So cheers asna great job.
Are there any details out yet on the sample size for Galaxy and Neilsen respectively? I’m wondering if Galaxy coulf afford another 4000 survey like last week’s marginals, or if they’ll revert to 1100 approximately?
I assume Neilsen will be in the 1100-1400 range for sample size as well?
CL
Full story on Humphreys in the link below including his own leaflet exercise along the lines of the Kelly gang.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22803835-5014046,00.html
William
May I also say thanks for your wonderful site, and also to the many regular posters here, (even Glen), which has made this election a far better informed and more interesting one for me.
Also, with the two polls I trust being 57/43 and 54/46, I can go to sleep feeling very good about watching the Rodent squeel on Saturday.
NICO #1024
you are correct
52.1% Labor 2PP delivers 20 seats
BUT this would leave Labor with 76 seats to Liberal’s 71 seats (3 liberal indepenent
(based on Antony Green’s ABC calculator)
ie. ANY 3 seats either way on 52.1 % 2PP gives EITHER Labor or Liberal victory
representing a 4.8% uniform swing
ALL of the 4.8% swing needs to be IN EVERYONE OF THOSE 20 SEATS
which is why a 52.1 % 2PP would be a cliffhanger
Labor can only be guaranteed of victory when the 2PP is at/close to 53%
Any comments please
It’s imteresting they wheeled Ruddock out from the crypt to do Lateline. I guess no-one else wants to touch Lindsay-gate, and Ruddock, being deceased, has nothing to fear from it … although i do think they should bring Albo down a couple of notches. Jones was actually okay tonight, I gues eben Tony has to accept that it’s serious and needs to be interrogated!
1191 – should be “Wiliam and Possum”, and “sites” – forgive me – it is late. Typos galore as well.
God, give me an early reult on Saturday or I’ll just fade out I think.
Remember that whoever wins the ACT Senate election takes their seat immediately when the new parliament meets, they don’t have to wait until July 2008. So if Kerry Tucker wins the seat, there goes the Coalition senate majority.
I feel despite our anonymity glimpses of everyones personality and life experiences have also shown through on this site.
Back again.
Just looking, good looking.
Ta Arbie Jay
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