Not sure where he heard this, but the more than reliable Possum Comitatus hears tomorrow’s ACNielsen will show 55-45.
UPDATE: Now the Channel Seven News tells us it’s 57-43. Either ACNielsen or Galaxy are going to look at bit silly come Sunday.
| TWO-PARTY | PRIMARY | ||||
| ALP | LNP | ALP | LNP | ||
|
Nov 23
|
57 | 43 | ? | ? | |
|
Nov 16
|
54 | 46 | 47 | 43 | |
|
Nov 2
|
55 | 45 | 48 | 41 | |
|
Oct 19
|
54 | 46 | 48 | 42 | |
|
Oct 6
|
56 | 44 | 47 | 40 | |
|
Sep 8
|
57 | 43 | 49 | 39 | |
|
Aug 11
|
55 | 45 | 46 | 41 | |
|
Jul 14
|
58 | 42 | 49 | 39 | |
|
Jun 16
|
57 | 43 | 48 | 39 | |
|
May 19
|
58 | 42 | 48 | 39 | |
|
April 21
|
58 | 42 | 50 | 37 | |
1,408 Comments
Pages: « 1 … 23 24 [25] 26 27 … 29 » Show All
Just realised I was asked a question.
Laurie Oakes made his prediction on Nightline tonight – ALP to pick up 20 seats.
see ya tomorrow pollbludgers
Thanks Dangerous
I do not think Rudd will get the biggest swing. All the folks on this blog who live here like me know that Griffith is now becoming a very swish sort of place at least where I live.
Rudd used to really work the area.
He did it well.
Now parts of it are becoming very inner city.
Indeed when I look down on the snobs of bulimba I shake my head in a haughty way.
you know what sums this election up for me? on the citycat to work on wed my mate says to me, “i dont see much difference between them. Except for decency of course”. and i think that one word sums it up. Rudd used it a number of times during his fireside chat with Red Kez.
Glen,
You asked where they went. How they got there, well it says everything about a party designed to never make a decision, making a decison.
VIC: 52-48 ? That seems too low. Does anyone want to by some bets?
Hey J KIn i’m one of those new types in Bulimba! we ain’t all bad!! dont let silly stereotypes cloud your judgement.
Yes, the senate majority goes if Greens win ACT seat – but LNP then still has 38. Which is a blocking vote till July.
Not sure if its been mentioned yet, but Petrie has gone across to Labor on Centrebet and Portlandbet at 1.80/1.90. Thats 82 seats where ALP is in front on Portlandbet.
So Laurie thinks ALP will end with 80? Meaning 80-68-2. That’ll do fine, although 89 would be better.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/its-time-say-voters-as-poll-tips-big-win-to-rudd-and-labor/2007/11/22/1195321951483.html
GG @ 1206,
One day they were going to have to take a stand on something, I guess.
I still think Kernot’s got a lot to answer for, though. Right up there with Billy Hughes, surely?
Also, although the Dems served a purpose, it should never be forgotten that they were founded purely because Chipp got p*ssed off about being overlooked for the Fraser ministry.
All our other political parties were founded for some greater purpose than that (except perhaps One Nation).
Gotta go. 2 more sleeps. Thanks again William!
cityblue @ 1212,
Great shot of Howard and his duck!
Bulimba has changed from working class 20 years ago to elite yuppie these days…nice area thou!
The Adelaide Advertiser and the Fin Review are backing the Government.
Nielson also did another ONLINE POLL at the same time with a different sample and the result was 57/43 also
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/its-time-say-voters-as-poll-tips-big-win-to-rudd-and-labor/2007/11/22/1195321951483.html
this link INCLUDES THE PRIMARYS and some vagueries about the states
I can’t keep doing this to all hours.
Night all. Roll on the Ruddslide.
ACN also has LNP ahead in WA, which means the eastern states must be swinging big time.
Also says Vic swing is big – so there’s one major dissonance with Newspoll (and probably galaxy)
Where’s your stamina bludgers? Off to bed at midnight?
1205 middle man
Too true. Decent. Shone through.
Beats the old ‘relaxed and comfortable’ canard.
PS: Neilsen 2071 – pretty big sample isn’t it?
BenC 1210
A Labor friend who lives in Petrie was thrilled (NOT) to find a begging message from JH on his answering machine today, which prompted me to say that Petrie must be in danger, from the Coalition point of view. Sounds like my uninformed guess was right!
This partic post is reaching critical mass.
BTW – ACN sample 2081 (MoE ~ 2.1%), ALP primary 48%, Lib 40%. Very very encouraging!
AG01. just because i can afford to live in a certain suburb doesn’t automatically make me an elite yuppie.
only 10:00pm here
Hey guys. How can you sleep now? Savour the moment.
ESJ – work to do tomorrow, cases to settle so they don’t run next week when I’ll be hung over.
Ben Cubby (SMH) told Tony Delroy (ABC Local Radio) that the Government ‘faces annihilation’ at the election on the weekend.
A Herald/AC Nielsen poll has Labor leading on a primary vote of 48 to 40, and a 2pp of 57 to 43.
If preferences are allocated based on the distribution at the 2004 Federal Election, then the 2pp would be 56 to 44.
I don’t know how the first 2pp figure was derived.
Howard rang Darwin too… me.
Dyno,
Kernot wanted to be in a party that made decisions and were accountable. Eventually, she could not bear the indecision that is the charm and charisma of the Democrats.
At least when she left she resigned from the Parliament to allow another Democrat to take over. The comparison with Hughes is unfair.
Mmm, screw sleep. This is going to be special. I first voted in 1980 and I’ve never been this excited before. Hell, I’m not even this excited at Christmas. Whoo!
We can only wait and see the result.
Sorry MM… just a generalisation, No offense —DOH
1000 pardons.
Paul Keating — love him or loathe him, he cuts to the quick:
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2007/11/21/1195321864420.html
1216
Aussieguru01 Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 12:07 am
Bulimba has changed from working class 20 years ago to elite yuppie these days…nice area thou
and middleman
admit it u are like the rudds and took advantage of it.(though the rudds would/do not care )
Only I am unaware of what was going on.
Herald Sun
Fin Review
Adelaide Advertiser
The West Australian
vs
Sydney Morning Herald
Daily Telegraph
Courier Mail
The Australian
apprently in bennelong there is a ‘howard place’ and a ‘rudd street’
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/quiet-streets-where-a-growing-rumble-signals-coming-change/2007/11/22/1195321951567.html
hehehehe
Although, any primary votes of high 40s for one party as opposed to low 40s for the other would lead one to think that the first was going to win.
To be truthful I wouldn’t mind living in Bulimba too!
GG @ 1233,
Afraid I don’t have the energy to mount a prolonged argument, but it seems odd that someone can go all the way to become leader of a party before they discover that it’s not worth belonging to.
It’s bad form to do what she did, however you look at it.
Ron Brown @ 1194 – if you’re playing with the numbers, then check this: an evenly spread 56-44 2PP in Qld, by itself gives a majority to Labor. That’s the sort of territory we’re talking about.
I think the biggest negative about Rudd winning will be having to put up with Keating lecturing us on how he didn’t really lose the 1996 election and acting like Labor under Rudd needs him.
AC Nielsen is the one that I feel reflects the true state of things.
It’ll be 57-43 on the night, just you wait and see.
Are these figures correct Galaxy poll shows Labor with a primary vote of 52 per cent and the Coalition with 48 per cent?
Poll shows Coalition closing on Labor:
THE Coalition’s election hopes have been bolstered by a poll putting it closer to Labor than any time during the election campaign.
The Galaxy poll, published tomorrow in News Ltd publications, reportedly has Labor with a primary vote of 52 per cent and the Coalition with 48 per cent.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22802562-601,00.html
Glen 1239
Yes – strange bedfellows
Listen folks,
Howard can still win. Keep in mind, Rudd still has to win 16 seats (and lose nothing) and sometimes the math looks real scary. Right now the polls say that the ALP lead Libs by a 4 point margin, 52% – 48%.
Howard only needs 48.5% to hold power.
All he has to do is NOT lose. Not losing is easier than winning.
Lets keep the champagne on ice until the fat lady has sung…OK?
None taken Aussieguru. I’m the classic 70’s kid from a working class family who was given an opportunity via free university to get ahead. so i took it and i did. but you never forget your roots. I’ve long struggled with the desire to join and run, but i’m not sure my ‘colourful’ past would quite cut in this day and age.
Pages: « 1 … 23 24 [25] 26 27 … 29 » Show All