Not sure where he heard this, but the more than reliable Possum Comitatus hears tomorrow’s ACNielsen will show 55-45.
UPDATE: Now the Channel Seven News tells us it’s 57-43. Either ACNielsen or Galaxy are going to look at bit silly come Sunday.
| TWO-PARTY | PRIMARY | ||||
| ALP | LNP | ALP | LNP | ||
|
Nov 23
|
57 | 43 | ? | ? | |
|
Nov 16
|
54 | 46 | 47 | 43 | |
|
Nov 2
|
55 | 45 | 48 | 41 | |
|
Oct 19
|
54 | 46 | 48 | 42 | |
|
Oct 6
|
56 | 44 | 47 | 40 | |
|
Sep 8
|
57 | 43 | 49 | 39 | |
|
Aug 11
|
55 | 45 | 46 | 41 | |
|
Jul 14
|
58 | 42 | 49 | 39 | |
|
Jun 16
|
57 | 43 | 48 | 39 | |
|
May 19
|
58 | 42 | 48 | 39 | |
|
April 21
|
58 | 42 | 50 | 37 | |
1,408 Comments
Pages: « 1 2 [3] 4 5 … 29 » Show All
Imagine after the months of polling consistencey that we end up with 2 or three outliers in the election eve polls- in both directions.
Actually it would not be suprising- as i said before, these polls have always been the least accurate.
if its in the middle of galaxy and ac then newspoll wins
the roller coaster continues… do these pollster deliberately play with our emotions do you think?
Hand raised..
57-43? No way!
Ashley
Work?
Sportingbet is still at $1.22 get on it quick!
57 is what will happen on the day, it’ll only blow out at the last minute, like last election in reverse
I don’t know what everyone is worried about. I’ve said for months that it will be 80 to 85 seats for Labor and I see no reason to change. Stuff Galaxy. How many times have we all said it’s the trends not individual polls that matter.
Is it true as I have heard that Galaxy favours polling heavier samples in marginal seats for their national polls as a way of refining their accuracy for winning party?
Yeah, go you halves Nostra: How’s 54.5?
Talking about heckling of journalists at NPC on PM.
Batfair at $1.25 but falling.
Primary predictions anybody? I’ll go for 48-40.
At the rate of ACN, Howard and his ministers will be rushing to the shredders and readying themselves for the removalist vans on Saturday night.
Galaxy’s method will prove it’s downfall in 48 hours
Morgan starting to look almost credible …
These two polls are absolutely true to form. ACN favours Labor and Galaxy favours the coalition. Of course the problem for the coalition is that neither predicts them winning.
The funny thing is… now we need to wait for Newspoll to get a final fix on where we think things are.
The Australian will be loving the attention if they hold off on releasing it until Saturday. I was rather hoping that Newspoll would screw it up just to make the Oz look bad.
So once again – what polls are left before Saturday?
bull butter
i’m really interested in galaxys primaries now
I’m thinking 89 seats would be a nice round number gain
Heckling at journos: boo-hoo!
Not saying this was appropriate behaviour (it wasn’t) but aren’t the journos precious little darlings! Wouldn’t last five minutes as politicians if that kind of heckling unnerves them.
LTEP at 48
‘Just keeping some balance’.
This is not the ABC.
HOLY CRAP!!!!!!!!!!
Don’t forget that Galaxy poll done for the SBS Insight Program was also a 52-48 one.
I’m sceptical about Galaxy, because I don’t trust David Briggs. He’s made a few too many comments recently that could be interpreted as supporting one side of politics.
If I’m correct, ACN got close to the final election result in their final poll of that campaign.
I’ll got for 53.6% of the vote and 85 seats
@mr0speaker: Out of interest, what makes the Galaxy methodology different, and how is it bad if they got the closest prediction last time? Could it be luck? Or trying to ‘play it safe’?
How stupid do you have to be though?
Who do they think will be making decisions on how to report the last few days of the campaign?
Maybe THOSE EXACT JOURNALISTS?
Another campaign masterstroke.
centrebet still say 1.22/4.35 … wonder how long that will stay before the widening starts?
Iasbet has Labor @ 1.23 and Coalition @ 4.25
Yeah I think so, but I think the same about the Galaxy result. The reality is almost certainly somewhere in between… which means the Libs are screwed.
But we already knew that.
132 Julie
Its pretty wide already as far as two horse races go
Here’s what’ll happen.
Labor will get 54% or 55%.
Newspoll will say they are the best, while Galaxy and ACn will claim they were better with primaries, or say they were right within MOE, or whatever.
Labor will win 95 seats.
On Sunday morning, LTEP will say
“all these results might be overturned by postal and absentee votes and challenges in the court of disputed returns”.
I don’t know why their methodology differs, but they are clearly going against the grain of all other polls, so either they’ve got it miraculously right, or the alternate method mentioned earlier will prove to be flawed.
I’m sure Mr Stirton will have no problem finding another job come Monday…then again, who’d want to hire him?
Herald Sun backs Howard
DESPITE winning the campaign and most political battles this year, Kevin Rudd has failed to mount a convincing case for government. For this, and other crucial reasons, the Herald Sun will tomorrow recommend a vote for John Howard and his successor Peter Costello. Read the full argument in tomorrow’s Herald Sun and then join our online discussion.
comment/ surprise, surprise…. NOT
Hehe Spiros.
Patrick @ 131,
Agree it’s stupid. But MSM journos are truly pathetic if that upset them!
@Julie: Might be a bit of movement tomorrow, but given the mixed poll results that we know of already, I doubt it will be much. Today’s antics combined with the polls could see the ALP tighten up a bit. The LNP may dip below $4 given the large gap – a few punters might want to try their luck on what appears to be a lame horse…
Murdoch has turned big time it would seem.
At last.
Fact: galaxy are push polling with the “how close to unions” question.
I dont know the impact of that, but its whats going on.
Where did they poll???
Batman, Wills, Gorton, Sydney, Hunter, Newcastle WTF????
57 – 43 throughout the campaign the polls have not been that far apart, 53-47 is probably where we are at atm.
57-43 is bull butter just as galaxy would have been bull butter if it was 50-50.
Don’t worry Steven Kaye, you and your bunch of cronies will have lots of time in the dole queue as well.
ANC’s 57 is closer to 54-56 in the final days than Galaxy’s 52 I think
Beautiful one day ruddy beautidul the next. The ‘Kraken Awakes’.
Said this at PS but worth repeating here:
What’s right in the middle of the Galaxy/ACN numbers? 55:45 that’s what
Just like the long-term averages have been telling us, Poss’ earlier prediction of 55.12 still looks right to me. Plus Jackman and others have done alternative pseph and come up with basically the same number of 55. It’s too irresistible to ignore.
Glen:
57/43 is within the margin of error of 55/45 that it’s been all year.
As is 52/48.
Pages: « 1 2 [3] 4 5 … 29 » Show All