Not sure where he heard this, but the more than reliable Possum Comitatus hears tomorrow’s ACNielsen will show 55-45.
UPDATE: Now the Channel Seven News tells us it’s 57-43. Either ACNielsen or Galaxy are going to look at bit silly come Sunday.
| TWO-PARTY | PRIMARY | ||||
| ALP | LNP | ALP | LNP | ||
|
Nov 23
|
57 | 43 | ? | ? | |
|
Nov 16
|
54 | 46 | 47 | 43 | |
|
Nov 2
|
55 | 45 | 48 | 41 | |
|
Oct 19
|
54 | 46 | 48 | 42 | |
|
Oct 6
|
56 | 44 | 47 | 40 | |
|
Sep 8
|
57 | 43 | 49 | 39 | |
|
Aug 11
|
55 | 45 | 46 | 41 | |
|
Jul 14
|
58 | 42 | 49 | 39 | |
|
Jun 16
|
57 | 43 | 48 | 39 | |
|
May 19
|
58 | 42 | 48 | 39 | |
|
April 21
|
58 | 42 | 50 | 37 | |
1,408 Comments
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Thank you, Herald Sun. Interesting too…what with the Age not backing Krudd, and now the Herald Sun endorsing the Coalition, I think all those reports of Labor not making any headway in Victoria are correct.
As for the Tele, Penberthy’s been against Mr Howard for a long time now. I always thought it was a big mistake appointing the little cretin editor.
Ashley @ 100 -
It’s more tragic than that – I had to go out to a meeting and read PB posts on my phone as I traveled to and from the appointment. Got to see Bob Brown boarding the train at Bondi Junction, though, which was a nice touch. I gather he’s doing his best to get the Greens primary vote up in Wentworth. Saw Lucy Turnbull a bit later, walking out of Malcolm’s office. She didn’t look very happy…
I think they are both wrong in margin and correct in result
‘f’ n Beautiful
yup 57 52
split down the middle 54.5
that will be newspoll
oh and xmas will be renamed rudd-mass
We all know which one is going to look very silly.
Galaxy got lucky last election by favouring the libs all cycle, and then experiencing a real change to the coalition in the last two weeks. They have favoured the libs whenever given the chance.
This time they’re going to look like the push-polling liberal sycophants they are.
ACNielsen in the spirit of the late Bill Collins are “the accurate ones”. Given the debacle that is/has been/was the Liberal campaign who would believe otherwise?
Well at least the Hun is backing Howie, if they went with Rudd i really would be worried lol!
ACN, do not play favourites and are the most consistent, indepedent and professional. They will be the closest to the actual.
144 Lefty E – absolutely true Lefty E because I was polled and when that question came up suggested to them that I thought they were engaging in push polling.
Grover, you win, and I left a little blog for the Sham on GG, (and apologies for the little ‘appalling’ typo):
Dennis, in recognition for all your help throughout this appallyingly inept and mind-numbing Liberal campaign, some of us on the blogosphere have decided to re-name Howard’s last campaign as the “Sham-paign we had to have”!
We toast you with flutes aloft!
(Hey, and cheers to Grover for the winning entry!)
That’d have to be a primary of 50 for the ALP, maybe even 51.
It’s certainly hard to reconcile the Galaxy poll with the events of the campaign.
It will be very interesting to see the primaries/preferences – for example, these figures might reflect a very high or low Greens vote and the corresponding (mis)distribution of preferences.
Anyone know how they each do it?
Sorry about not being able to divulge more info this morning guys. I got called away as soon as I finished the last post.
As you can see the ACN/Galaxy companies have got a lot riding on this. Someone is going to have a lot of egg on their faces as they are poles apart (no pun intended). The role of Morgan is going to be usurped.
Rofl the Hun.
I agree that ACN are the best source, and I think the general idea that the margin will tighten in the final days is misguided… I think the Libs will be lucky to keep the numbers at 54.5 or 55
when will the Australian come out and back Howard?
Yeah, the Herald Sun’s endorsement really helped Kennett in Victoria.
You mean like the actual correct figures, for example?
When haven’t they?
Man Costello is such a turd on ABC radio. I hope he enjoys his time on the opposition benches.
#159 & 168: yes and yes.
163.
Galaxy’s polls can be reconciled to the campaign in that every time the Coalition need some kind of boost, Galaxy publishes a poll
HH writes:
“I’m sceptical about Galaxy, because I don’t trust David Briggs. He’s made a few too many comments recently that could be interpreted as supporting one side of politics.
Likewise HH. Pretty much from the word go, in fact. I don’t think I’ve ever heard him give an interview that could be considered as “balanced”. Galaxy also all too often seem to come up with surprise results that just happen to be “convenient” for their clients. A surprise boost to keep up moral when things aren’t going well, often off a previous slightly low poll to maximise the “gap” movement, and the like. It is all too easy to skew these things a little.
Just talked to my mum (Wide Bay) she was polled by Galaxy on wednesday. Who will you vote for was the 3rd or 4th question (she can’t remember the other questions – she is 78).
So it seem Galaxy are up to their old tricks.
Glen, I’ve got no problem with any of your posts, mate, but there is a Galaxy Poll thread running where you can bask in the warm glow of the narrowing finally having arrived. Why do you want to keep posting on the thread of the poll you think is bull butter?
Lets hope the ‘galaxy is the most accurate’ crap that arose from them arbitrarily (within the moe) falling closest to the actual result in 2004 is finally put to bed. David Brooks strikes me as an air head and they’ve been out on their own all year pushing the bottom end of the Labor vote.
Someone needs to make a list of the endorsements tomorrow.
CAN’T … TEAR … MYSELF … AWAY … … … MUST …. STOP … HITTING … REFRESH …
I love this reasoning – that the incumbent somehow “deserves” to be in government more simply by virtue of their incumbency. Sort of like… it would be a shame to go through all that hassle of changing government just for something a little bit better, so it has to be a convincing case for a change.
How about, put them side by side, pick the better one? Is that too hard?
Hemingway because its a democracy lol!
What more do they need to do??? Offer up Overthetopington as a virginal (pffft) sacrifice?!?!
We have to thank Galaxy for keeping Howard in his job when his party were angling to get rid of him and allow the Australian electorate to do the job.
mr0speaker:
Hey, I’ve got copyright on this name.
The Speaker ™
Costello on PM. Sounds petulant, whiny (even more than usual), nervous laughter (unusual for Peter). Being quizzed about Bogan-gate and tried to bring in Julia Gillard being late for a debate with him. Phew. I’ll give him points for putting his head above the parapet, but jeez…. not a good performance.
Actually the Herald sun backed Labor in the last state election. Did they get that right Steven Kaye. By the way, newspaper endorsements mean nothing to most. Lok what happened in NSW in their last state election.
I don’t know if I really believe 57-43, but I don’t know if I really believe 52/48 either.
Of course, intuition and history would tell you it’ll be closer to 52 than 57. I find it hard to imagine the result is gong to be over 54%, let alone 57.
I think all this business today will act to firm up intentions for Labor so they will do no worse than 52%… but I could be wrong on that too.
First somebody says 50/50. Then Ruawake says menzies. Then its 50/50 again. then its Higgins (you know who you are). Then its 52/46… then its 52/48… Then ACN 55/45… now 57/43.
Am I exhausted? YES
Who cares who the papers endorse? That is such an old fashioned view of what influences voters.
The Speaker.
Note: my name has a 0 in it, which clearly identifies me as a seperate entity, it is also pronounced and spelled differently.
Ladies and Gentlemen I am officially confused
How can in the same period of time galaxy come into 52-48, and ACN go to 57-43?
*Scratches head*
*Befuddled look on face*
Now our Julia on PM. God I love this woman.
I think it’s a little wrong to say Galaxy only got the ‘04 election result right. They also got very close to the Qld and NSW results.
I agree with others who suggest ACNielsen has been a proven performer over many elections. Their trend lines are usualy smooth with few rogue results. Galaxy have been doing some strange things this year and do not fill me with confidence. All polls in 2004 got the primary result about right but differed markedly after the preferences. This is Galaxy’s main claim to fame, one start for one win. At this stage taking into account the betting markets I am inclined to go with the older proven performer ACNielsen.
If the worst the alp can hope for on election day is 52-53% then the coalition is finished.
SirEggo — MOE
Is Newspoll in tomorrows GG?
SirEggo @191, We’ve been saying the same about Morgan v everyone else all year. Morgan may end up being the closest of all …
Glen,
It wasn’t a suggestion that you to go to the other thread, but a non-rhetorical question. If you don’t want to answer it, no worries.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NizKjT8V0uI
buzzz ding Tory style
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