Not sure where he heard this, but the more than reliable Possum Comitatus hears tomorrow’s ACNielsen will show 55-45.
UPDATE: Now the Channel Seven News tells us it’s 57-43. Either ACNielsen or Galaxy are going to look at bit silly come Sunday.
| TWO-PARTY | PRIMARY | ||||
| ALP | LNP | ALP | LNP | ||
|
Nov 23
|
57 | 43 | ? | ? | |
|
Nov 16
|
54 | 46 | 47 | 43 | |
|
Nov 2
|
55 | 45 | 48 | 41 | |
|
Oct 19
|
54 | 46 | 48 | 42 | |
|
Oct 6
|
56 | 44 | 47 | 40 | |
|
Sep 8
|
57 | 43 | 49 | 39 | |
|
Aug 11
|
55 | 45 | 46 | 41 | |
|
Jul 14
|
58 | 42 | 49 | 39 | |
|
Jun 16
|
57 | 43 | 48 | 39 | |
|
May 19
|
58 | 42 | 48 | 39 | |
|
April 21
|
58 | 42 | 50 | 37 | |
1,408 Comments
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we believe what we want to believe
labor will win the election but it won’t be 57-43
MOE?
It’s not going to be 57%.
It is going to be 54 -55 %.
And the number of seats held by Labor will start with a 9.
This is what all the objective evidence and all the objective commentators are saying.
This Moe guy sure cops a lot of blame around here.
I hate Moe
I’m declaring it (again tentatively), Galaxy is a PUSH POLL in safe coalition seats
Ashley 196
Yeh, probably right.
The 57-43 probably an outlier.
But still
YOOOOOO BEEEEEEYOOOOOOOTEEEEEEEE
Sorry, couldn’t control myself
37 hours 26 minutes till polls open……
I might have to take back my earlier Myth No 2 (not believing in conspiracy theories about Galaxy) if it’s true they’re doing push polling.
Do we have a confirmed recent case of this, where we’re sure it was for a published poll?
If anyone still has any doubts about 57/43 catch a bit of the replay of the Coconut at the Nat Press Club today. He was dead-set practically crying.
Rodent
Rudd
mr0speaker :
You’ve only been using it for one day, I’ve had mine for years.
poll0bludger ™
The galaxy poll is a doctored report trying to create the impression of momentum for the coalition with a hope of persuading undecideds.
Galaxy play the role of all those dodgy ‘polls’ in american presidential campaigns which try to create the impression of a ‘republican’ winner over a sustained period.
Problem is with pamphletgate and Rupert playing both sides of the fence this election (based on real polls) no real chance for oxygen in a ‘comeback’ argument in this poll, although libs will still try to spin it that way.
Galaxy will do a poll on the morning/day of the election and it wil be around 54/55 ALP thereby covering their behinds, but Galaxy’s role is as always a participant in the process rather than an observer.
Speakers – and don’t try and steal my name either – it took me ages to think of it
Glen,
I have waited 11 long years for this, I am going to enjoy every minute of it between now and end of the evening on Saturday. And every minute of it once Rudd and company are officially in. What goes around comes around and it is now our turn.
The last time I felt this good was on the evening of election returns in 1992 when we chucked out 12 years worth of Republicans for the Democrats in the USA.
I am officially opening the Election night bar tonight
, even if that means I need to go to for restocking it between now and Satuday 
And the Lindsay affair will provide some nice padding of 0.5% or so.
Why can’t it be 57 -43 on the day? Just because it’s never happened doesn’t mean it can’t.
All year it’s been 55 – 45 and as the wheels go cartwheeling off the Liberal campaign bus, some of the passengers are jumping across to the winning side.
Centre,
I thought he was fine at NPC today. Given the circumstances in fact, I thought it was a textbook example of the stoicism that’s got him as far as he has in politics.
I mean, a normal person would’ve rung in sick, I reckon.
Moe has somehow got himself onto all the pollsters phone records, using a large number of false names.
When Galaxy calls him (repeatedly) he puts on a different voice each time, and votes for Howard. Whenever ACN calls him he votes for Rudd.
That’s how the ACN and Galaxy results can be explained by Moe.
Now, here’s a banner I’m loving:
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/
“Time for a Historic Change.
Telegraph Backs Rudd”.
Julie ive suffered defeats from the Libs in Victoria and WA i know what its like to lose and i am not looking forward to losing this one but despite what you might think of JWH Australia is better off than we were in 1996.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oi37C6eHAeg&feature=user
Crap. In the real world, far removed from Stirton’s masturbatory fantasies, the Aussie dollar is dropping, closing at 87c. Is this what happens when a Krudd Government is merely contemplated? Damn.
SBS gave the Kelly Lindsay scandal a good long report.
Also stated ACN 57 to 43. Did not mention Galaxy.
Ashley 217
Moe is worth about 2% in these polls, isn’t he? LOL
I don’t think it counts as trolling if it’s a statement of fact: Steven Kaye, you’re an idiot.
Please keep posting here after Sunday.
Anyone know what quesitons were asked in both polls?
Didn’t someone in a thread yeasterday mention something about a who is closer to unions question?
Dario@205
Try orange juice?
Money moving on Bennalong at Centrebet: 1.63/2.15
thanks for the comedy Steven
we’re comin back! 95 seats for the true economic conservatives
What was the corresponding ACN poll in 2004? Were they out by a long way?
Cry us a river Steven.
Gary Bruce, ACN’s result in ‘04 was 54/46 (Coalition/ALP)
They overestimated the Coalition’s primary vote but got the ALP’s pretty much spot on.
Choose your reality! Nielson or Galaxy. Telegraph or Herald Sun.
whose got the coolade?
#223 –
“I don’t think it counts as trolling if it’s a statement of fact: Steven Kaye, you’re an idiot.”
And you, Patrick Bateman, are loonier than your fictional namesake.
Glen 219 – I don’t agree – although I am sure you can make an argument – it’ll just be based on different values to me.
Despite John Howard saying that Australians are prouder than they were a decade ago, I disagree. I am ashamed of being Australian now and I never was before.
In my view, John Howard has ruined this country and he deserves to lose his seat.
Stephen Kaye 220 – not even worth responding to such ignorance.
Ashley @ 179: rotfl, i’m exactly the same. PB is more addictive than crack cocaine laced with caffeine and chocolate.
204, 205, 217: hahahahahaha
The last ACN before 2004 was 54-46 Libs
The over estimated the Libs by 1.3(?)
That means this could really be 58.3-41.7!
Or not….LOL
If you’ll excuse me, I have some reservations at Dorsia.
Steven,
You left out the earthquakes and plagues of locusts again.
As I’ve said many times now, Galaxy’s reputation will be in tatters come Saturday night. The proof is that their rogue polls always come when the Coalition needs it most.
It’s absolutely shameless, and so foolish making their final poll wrong. No doubt they will use the leaflet-gate scandal to explain the massive to Labor after their poll…
Alright, I’ve gotta head home.
Nobody say anything interesting while I’m away.
Glen @ 200
“http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NizKjT8V0uI
buzzz ding Tory style”
Man that was lame. I thought a teenager made it in his bedroom until I saw it was from LiberalParty07.
A little something from Glen’s Dad. Wait till he gets back from work today to watch the News!
The Oz.
Liberals can learn from Monty Python
FROM THE RIGHT: Ian Smith | November 22, 2007
Always look on the bright side of life.
The polls are terrible, some of our stars are falling (just what has happened to Tony Abbott in this campaign?) and Kevin07 is attracting more fans than Justin Timberlake. But we must take heed of Eric Idle’s immortal song.
Fellow conservatives do not fret. We still have more than 48 hours left.
Although Newspoll shows 54 per cent ALP and 46 per cent Coalition, it is only a flesh wound.
To show the Right likes a challenge, Media Monitors reflects that over the past week Australia has been debating issues that are the domain of others: education and climate change.
Kevin has convinced people that he will be to Australian education what Eli Whitney was to America’s industrial revolution, while Bob Brown has a firmer grip on climate change than Posh has on Becks.
Regarding education, as the ever-insightful Peter Ruehl wrote, all Kevin will do when every kid gets a computer at school is give them the chance to waste as much time surfing the web there as they already do at home.
As for climate change, Bob’s been on about this for years. It still snows in winter and even rained in Melbourne yesterday. Yes, I may have gone to work in Speedos last week because the temperature nudged 50 degrees in Adelaide but really Bob, what are you on about? We can all adapt.
John Howard maintains a cracking pace. People are consistently confounded by the speed of his morning walk.
Senator Simon Birmingham, in his early 30s, says he had to run to keep up with the PM.
Johnny is the man we need to lead this country. Run to the booths behind him on Saturday everyone. You’re not there yet Kevin!
Meanwhile:
Some things in life are bad,
They can really make you mad,
Other things just make you swear and curse,
When you’re chewing on life’s gristle,
Don’t grumble, give a whistle,
And this’ll help things turn out for the best
Ian Smith is executive chairman of media relations group Gavin Anderson (Australia).
Thanks LTEP. – I just don’t believe the conditions have favoured the coalition to the extent where Labor’s vote has gone down and the coalitions has gone up. It just doesn’t ring true.
What happened to Nostro he popped up but now hes gone?
Steven has a point if only this bad economic forecast could have happened a week ago oh well.
And don’t even think about leaking the Newspoll result until I get back.
Kaye you economic fool, a lower dollar enhances our export competitiveness and reduces our trade deficit.
Crikey and Possum and a few other sites had comments on the Galaxy push poll of September (I think it was).
David Briggs of Galaxy does not do his credibility any good when he say “we (Liberals) are still in the race.
Galaxy are a joke, as Possum notes they can round down and allocate preferences as to how they see fit so that a 52-48 can have a mid range of 53.5-46.5 and an upper range of 55-45, but for some reason galaxy takes the lower range of 52-48.
.
.
Finally he’s gone. Now we can talk about Ashley.
I really am about to leave. Just… one… more… refresh.
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