Comments on: ACNielsen: 57-43

By: Heart of Australia

Heart of Australia — Fri, 23 Nov 2007 07:26:38 +0000

The fun of the Poll Bludger game is only if you are courageous enough to write your comment before election results begin to stream out tomorrow. Hence I am writing the following statement. (Like everyone else in politics, I’m also taking a chance of winning or loosing!).

“If Rudd wins it should be no surprise for Howard. But if Howard wins, Australia will look silly…”

Let experts dig deeper into meanings of my thoughts.

By: I'm calling Warringah for Zochling

I'm calling Warringah for Zochling — Fri, 23 Nov 2007 03:24:18 +0000

Oh no, the tide is turning. Howard can sense it.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/tides-turning-pm/2007/11/23/1195753279860.html

By: Samuel K

Samuel K — Fri, 23 Nov 2007 01:25:06 +0000

Polling is one thing. Anecdotal evidence can also be indicative. Does anyone know / know of a lot of people who voted for the Coalition in 2004 who are switching?

I have spoken to plenty of people who still don’t know how they will vote. I have spoken to a few who have switched from Liberal to Labor. I haven’t yet spoken to ANYONE who will switch the other way.

I think Howard’s biggest problem is that (excluding WA) it’s hard to conceive of a voter profile that would switch to him after having voted for Latham. In other words, usually a bit of swing goes both ways and there is some cancel out. I think tomorrow’s swing will be a one directional one – however big.

By: Jenni

Jenni — Thu, 22 Nov 2007 23:25:52 +0000

It aint all over until the fat lady sings – remember Malcolm Pants Down Frazer’s election win when old Goofy was way ahead in the polls!
God help us all if Krudd and old Ferret faced Gillard get in.

By: aspidistra

aspidistra — Thu, 22 Nov 2007 21:50:21 +0000

Although the MoE is one explanation for the difference between the Galaxy and ACN polls, it might also be that they were conducted differently. It is pretty unlikely that two polls are at the extreme and opposite ends of the MoE. If it’s true, as someone suggested, that Galaxy weights its poll towards marginals, then that would explain the difference and ACN is a much better indicator of average national voting intentions. If so, then Howard is trailing very badly. Even if ACN overestimates the gap and it’s more like 55/45, that will be a huge win for Labor whatever happens in the marginals, since close results in marginals simply means that the swings have to be that much bigger elsewhere to get 55/45 nationally.

By: Jai-mei

Jai-mei — Thu, 22 Nov 2007 21:26:07 +0000

“F*ck you all”
- John Howard, 7.00pm, 24th November 2007

“I love youse guys”
- Kevin Rudd, 7.01pm, 24th November 2007

By: Casual Comment

Casual Comment — Thu, 22 Nov 2007 20:05:29 +0000

WTF The GG endorses Rudd. “A man of the times” “We recommend a vote for mister Rudd.” The Jig is finally up when even your own mouthpiece turns against you.

By: Mr Squiggle

Mr Squiggle — Thu, 22 Nov 2007 18:40:38 +0000

INteresting note at the bottom of the article in the SMH covering the AC Neilson, saying

“Galaxy Poll to be published in News Limited newspapers today shows the election to be a tight contest, with the two main parties tied on 42.5 per cent of the primary vote and Labor leading by 52 per cent to 48 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis.

But sources from both main parties believed that the Herald poll more accurately reflected what their internal polling had found.”

By: Marvelous Marvin

Marvelous Marvin — Thu, 22 Nov 2007 17:35:36 +0000

He emphasised the Government’s strong economic performance over the past decade and said Labor had not earned the right to govern because of its “obstructionist and guerilla …

Eh?

By: haiku

haiku — Thu, 22 Nov 2007 17:23:04 +0000

ACN primaries are reported as 48:40. If prefs were done as per 2004, TPP is reported as 56:44
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/howard-needs-a-miracle/2007/11/22/1195321949364.html