More than one commenter reports that Paul Bongiorno has indicated on the Channel Ten News has reported tomorrow’s Galaxy poll at “52-46”, a most unfortunately timed slip of the tongue. We will presumably know soon enough whether he meant 54-46 or 52-48.
UPDATE: Thanks to Adelaide readers for confirming it as 52-48.
| TWO-PARTY | PRIMARY | ||||
| ALP | LNP | ALP | LNP | ||
|
Nov 23
|
52 | 48 | ? | ? | |
|
Nov 4
|
54 | 46 | 45 | 42 | |
|
Oct 19
|
53 | 47 | 45 | 43 | |
|
Sept 24
|
56 | 44 | 46 | 40 | |
|
Aug 27
|
57 | 43 | 47 | 39 | |
|
July 30
|
54 | 46 | 44 | 41 | |
|
July 2
|
55 | 45 | 46 | 41 | |
|
June 4
|
53 | 47 | 44 | 42 | |
|
May 14
|
57 | 43 | 49 | 39 | |
|
April 23
|
58 | 42 | 49 | 37 | |
NOTE: Please exercise some common sense when speculating on poll results in comments. For the love of God, do not leave comments like “ACN 50-50″ and then, 10 minutes and 115 comments later, say “oh sorry, that was only a prediction”.
147 Comments
Come on what is it?
me?
Adelaide Channel 10?
Bongiourno is on 10 talking to Howard 1 on 1 about today’s events right now.
Probably a deliberate slip up to keep us watching through the hour!
God I can’t wait till this is over
Seems like what you can expect from a network who can’t even bother to show election returns on Saturday night
Surely it will be 52-48. That makes sense with what Grooski was saying and its hard to imagine ACN being better then 54/46.
I heard it was 68-32 to the Greens over Family First after all Liberal candidates were expelled and all ALP candidates were ruled ineligible and the Nationals fell down a bottomless pit and Pauline Hanson got gigantism.
Wonder when we’ll hear the ACN result…
52/48 after preferences. Ten.
52 to 48 Galaxy I hear
Going to see what ACN is before I panic….
Gulp!
Galaxy are truly shameless.
Come Sunday they’ll be seen as the Morgan poll, never to be reported again in the press.
Bugger
i dont like it. too close. damn.
This is the best result for the Coalition in ANY poll all year… and from the most accurate pollster last time.
Coalition to win it in a thriller.
Oh well don’t the Kelly gang look like geniuses now?
Today would have been a big one for the Govt, but …
52-48 I guess.
Possum has ACN at 55/45
God this is so nerve racking
Yippeeeee
If Galaxy is 52-48 that is the minimum the ALP will get. Galaxy the new Morgan.
Bongiorno said that the ACN poll was “a LOT further ahead for Labor”
ACN has leaked to ABC 7pm news in the past. Perhaps tonight as well.
BTW I heard Paul B on Ch.10 say 52-48, not 46. Perhaps they re-recorded that voice-over for central and western states after they realised the slip. And he said ACN has Labor “much further ahead”.
Too bad that Galaxy have an outlier on the eve of the election…their reputation is on the line… LOL
The headline the meeja wants…
It’s too close to call!
Paul Bongiorno can’t add up.
Still galaxy were the closest to the 2004 result. I told ya’ll it will be a squeaker
General Wenck may arrive in time.
What are the primaries?
Will all you nervous Nellies please chill out. JWH is dead no matter what Galaxy says.
My prediction is 57-43 – galaxy isn’t worth the paper it’s barely printed on
Didn’t you hear me. FIFTY TW0/FORTY EIGHT. TEN NEWS.
Galaxy just doing their bit for their man.
52 – 48 is incredible news for the Coalition. They really could *JUST* sneak in with that kind of result.
However, if the other polls buck the trend, will it simply just be an outlier?
Nielson apparently has the ALP “far further ahead”.
Also, although Galaxy did predict the last election result, there are a few reasons not to worry for the ALP, I believe
1 – Even though Galaxy predicted the last election, this could have just been luck.
2 – 52 – 48 is still very much in favour of a Labor win, just with only a smallish majority of like 10.
Well, unless ACN or Newspoll also comes in at 52-48 this poll won’t mean much. I reckon we’ll get ACN 54-46 (prediction) and Newspoll 53-47 (prediction). Final election result around 53%.
I think there are a couple of myths emerging about this poll:
Myth No 1. It’s good for Labor, avoids complacency … – disagree, it’s what the Liberals needed to keep breathing at this stage of their campaign. How that makes it good news for Labor is anyone’s guess.
Myth No 2. Galaxy have cooked the figures… – Don’t they make their money because people hire them for market research? Why would they cook the figures?
It is a Geelong grand final all over again!
hmmm, how I tentatively look forward to the new nickname for Galaxy’s chairman:
David ‘egg on face’ Briggs.
I think that ACN will be something like 55-45
If ACN is *a lot* further ahead that means either 54-46 or 55-45 I would say.
New thread up. Perhaps we can have one thread for Coalition optimists/Labor “concern trolls” and another for everybody else.
“ACN was given as higher for the ALP but no details apparently at 55/45 – the business as usual we’ve all come yawn about.”
From our very own Possum…
maybe not the ‘narrowing’ but cause for hope.
note also that Morgan and newspoll have substantially underestimated the LNP TPP in several of the last elections.
anyone who says this is ‘over’ is wrong
Was the interview with Howard with Paul B on Ten on the Sydney Melb editions. surely if not that is bad timing by Libs
We’re on the march!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQ4ldl12W0I&feature=related
Id be worried if i were you, Howie can scrape in with these numbers.
ACN might have 57 for Labor, this seems a likely prediction
Well it’s debatable I guess. I can imagine that people who worry about “wall to wall labor governments” might also be concerned about a landslide to labor. There’s a reason that Rudd is always playing down his chances of winning by a large margin.
PLEASE REMEMBER
It is historically the case that the election eve polls are far LESS acurate than the poll trend with progressions.
They are also the most volatile. 52/48 is not impossible. Niether is 56/44
Possum has 55-45 for ACN….nothing has changed, just like it hasn’t all year. Like Possum says, Galaxy have been the “stand-up comedian of polling all year”.
As Possum has shown and others have pointed out time and again, it is the AVERAGE across the different polls that reliably comes closest to the final result.
Just because one poll got it closest last time does not mean it will this time. There will always be random fluctuations within the margin of error. In other words, it comes down to luck.
I suggest everybody hold their nerves until we get the average from all four polls, presumably later tonight.
For Sale.
just read a post by the poss regarding galaxy’s method and its problems. ACN is the real deal apparently, as well as Newspoll (but it can show more volatility).
ACN apparently 55/45 according to the Poss.
ok. i’m comfortable and relaxed again. Thanks Honest John.
Has Galaxy come up with this 52-48 in their polls in the last, say, 6 months?!?
If this just another fresh poll (with 1-2k sample size), I wouldn’t take it seriously.
By now pollsters should announce their aggregated poll, weighting over the last few months. That would be more convincing.
Except it’s not possible for the ALP to win by more than 100 points…
I would need to see the primaries first to see if 52-48 result reported in Galaxy is on mark. Anyway that would still mean Labor winning the election with between 76-78 seats.
3LO melbourne. Ian Henderson (ABC TV News) said “there will be something in the polls for everybody for everyone. One of the polls is narrowing and the other is widening.”
It’s great to see the tory supporters building up hope. Oh, the let down is going to be tremendously bad for them now. At least if you feel you have no hope you can steel yourself well before hand.
Glen, when it ends up ALP 53/47 they still will be
Yeah, William.
Trollbludgers.
i liked morgan’s 62-38 better
I probably won’t know the result as it happens im scrutineering but it shouldnt take so long before Antony Green is telling Labor supporters not to jump off bridges because the early results are from rural booths with conservative voter bases lol!
Ah, I remember ‘04 and Newspoll came in at 50/50 the day before… didn’t that make for extra fun on election night?
Galaxy has always been the low mark for Labor and ACN the high mark. Average them out and you’ll be close to the mark. I can see a 53 plus for Labor coming up. A comfortable victory.
59,
Go to the ABC site and sign up for Antony’s service that will send results to your mobile
…. My husband is handing out HTV cards and scrutineering and that is what he is doing to keep in touch 
The Daily Telegraph which commissioned the Galaxy Poll has endorsed Labor.
The confidence, the sanity, the wisdom…DT moment of zen…
Loved the house for sale on Domain jimbob! May be vacant in a week.
For gods sake when is the left going to get its act together and realize we are in for the fight of our life. It makes me sick to think of the YR@W volunteers slogging it out in the marginals and then to read the triumphalisim and hubris from many of the commentators, 85 seats, 9896 seats whatever. All the polls are bullshit probably even this one.
This election is to close to call, for the last to weeks the ALP primary has been trending down, and now this poll confirming the trend though I don’t believe ALP has fallen to 52% the TREND is clear. Weird things are happening first Comitatus ground breaking results to detect the large swings in the safe seats. Then the Neo Liberal comeback on the western front. This election has come down to vicious guerilla warfare in the marginals with no prisoners taken.
ALP@52 is still a win, and if true for Bennelong, it puts Maxine in, I’ll take that!
Julie cheers, although my mobile phone is an old piece of shiat so i cant do it
All ill miss is the Tassie results and a glum looking Barker in Braddon banging on about the Mersey lol
Oh and Antony’s early results from rural NSW where they have massive swings to the Nats and Antony tells Labor voters not to jump off bridges hilarious stuff lol!
Where do I sign up for Anthony Greens results service? Can’t see it on ABC election site
If this is a fresh poll I would take notice; if it is not it is not worth concern – AC Nelson should be interesting
I listened to Howard today at the Press Club – he was asked a question around building bridges with the Muslim commuity if he was re elected. His response was very interesting he went in to a spiel about terroists – he was not asked about this!!! The man plays on peoples fears – muslims / terroists!! Howard politics 101
68,
I will post the link in about 10 to 15 minutes. I have to go to another computer and get it out of sent mail ……. I sent it to my husband at work earlier this week
Glen your phone is old piece of shit
You are not one of Howards battlers are you ?
68 – Hit the “Mobile” tab at the top of the page at ABC Elections
Ahh cool… although I may have found it… like an ABC election application
Yeah, thanks guys!
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/coverage/coverage.htm#mobile
K Jin my phone is not even in colour lol meh it does the trick.
74,
sounds like you have it now, but for the record -
http://www.abc.net.au/mobile/
Has anyone seen any printed confirmation of this result, or of the details of the alleged Galaxy poll (sample size? Full national or marginals? etc etc)
Cheers
Rod
PHEW and I thought it was 50/50
You had me worried for a moment
52/48 is a much nicer set of numbers
52/48 was my prediction. It certainly backs a close election result. There will be no landslide.
forget the polls gentlemen
stick with the punters, they are correct all time time
the they say $1.2x / $4.x
Is 52/48 the new 50/50 or the new 49/51 ?
Apparently the 55-45 ACN result was mentioned on radio national… according to a commenter on possum’s blog.
@ Ashley: I heard that too. A big difference
OMG 57-43 Neilson
@Ricky: Holy WTF, where did you hear that?!
Apparently Channel 7 just said ACN is 57 to 43 to Labor
According to Prime News in Canberra (14 point gap)
Ill take that one on Saturday!!
Brilliant result!
52-48 will keep the punters honest, and result in a firming of ALP vote
Plus Galaxy was unquestionably push polling with the “close to unions” question.
ACN is the better poll; and it looks big.
Landslide coming.
@Ricky: Cheers for that. How on earth can the two ‘best’ polls have such a gargantuan gap between them!? This is crazy :S
I picked ACN for 57! I WIN! I WIN!
roll on the annihilation.
Shit, I was just joking early about ACN being 57. Woooooohooo!!!
Everyone will be laughing at galaxy coming sunday.
you guys could’ve made a few bucks with betting on the polls
Hey folks, come and join us over on the 57-43 ACN thread. It’s much more fun than the nasty 52-48 galaxy thread.
there are 2 threads opened at the moment, I don’t wanna miss either of them. But it’s a pain to follow 2 threads at the same time
Will be interesting to see what happens with the bookies tomorrow, with such a discrepancy we could see the ALP firm even more or a *teensy* LNP comeback. Either way, I hope the LNP is routed come Saturday.
Maybe I’m just cynical, but I can never fully shake the feeling of waking up on Sunday seeing Howard, Costello, Abbott etc all beaming on the TV set announcing “Workchoices: The Empire Strikes Back”
52/48 from the most reliable pollster out there (I know, that’s not saying much, but still…)
And the Tele has endorsed Labor? What a surprise! Of course its wet-behind-the-ears editor Penberthy is going to endorse wet-behind-the-ears Krudd. Big deal.
bull butter
Ladies and Gentlemen I am officially confused
How can in the same period of time galaxy come into 52-48, and ACN go to 57-43?
*Scratches head*
*Befuddled look on face*
Very simple SirEggo. Both are within the margin of error. Combine the two and you get 54.5 which, give or take, is what the polls have been saying for some time now.
Wait for the primaries.
Apparently the Tele is leading with a banner “It’s Time for a Change – We’re Voting for Rudd”.
acn 57-43 cf Possum
“Bull Butter” – Sounds like something a 6 year old would say
52% is NOT a win for Labor either, maybe high 52% but not 52% flat.
If it was high 52 then it would be reported as 53%. It’s between 51.5 and 52.4
galaxy are probably already working on their “lindsay affair caused late minute swing” story
Wasnt Galaxy the most accurate in 2004?
rumours of galaxy push polling (again) with a “too close to the unions” question…
Remember people. Galaxy was THE most accurate at the last election. Saturday will be close….
Well, no surprise that the Herald Sun is backing Howard. I could see that coming from a long way off:
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/
With the Tele backing Rudd, it looks like News Ltd is having a bet each way.
Prediction – Newspoll and ACN will lose credibility after this election.
Prediction: They will all be wrong and Labor will get 53% TPP
Is it possible that Galaxy have polled seats higher up the Pendulum
I think it’s been repeated over and over again.
Galaxy was closest to the 2PP result. ACN was closest to the ALP primary but overestimated the Coalition primary.
Morgan was close to both the Coalition and ALP primaries. Newspoll was out of whack, but not too bad on the primaries.
In other words, if you look at all of them and particularly the primaries they’re not far off. This year will be different.
Mark my words. Galaxy will be the one losing credibility and thrown in the scrap heap with Morgan. They consistently understate ALP BY 2% primary & overstate the Libs by 2% primary. They are a joke!
I will mark those words mytm.
Both Galaxy and ACN could be “right” in the sense that their results are similar, within the usual MoE. Newspoll is also likely to be close to the final result. The result will probably be around 55/45, very close to the averaged result for all the polls. The Newspoll cumulative result state by state is 56/44, even closer to the averaged result.
If the final 2PP is anything below 52/48 or higher than 58/42, you’d have to say they all got it wrong and start questioning the value of opinion polls at all. Alternatively, you could conclude that public opinion moved in large numbers very quickly in the closing moments before voting. These kind of factors are possible, but not likely. The most likely result is still a 2PP around 55 or better for Labor
I would really lie to see the Galaxy Primaries. This may cast some light on how they arrived at their 52/48 split.
We are coming back!
We are coming back!
Oh, dear! tabitha, maybe in 2020 when you’ve managed to do something about a party who’s members think it’s a jolly jape to lie.
Still think that Possum’s 55.15 conclusion is pretty much on the mark, only bolstered by the appaling events in Lindsay of today. Couldn’t have happened to a more deserving bunch really.
“This is the sweetest victory of all.
This is a victory for the true believers”
- John Winston Howard, 24th November 2007
Just had a look at the details of this poll;
1- The poll is a 5 state breakdown (N.S.W, QLD, S.A,VIC and W.A) of 4 marginals for each state. The sample size is 4k, 800 per state.
2- When adusting the swings with the respective seat weight in regards to the state wide swing, we find that the national swing is approx 5.4%, with a2pp of 52.6. This poll looks very simular to the poll in last weekend’s News Ltd papers.
3 -The remarkable things to note is a) They show a large swing in NSW and only a 5% swing in QLD.
“Question: Could we have tried harder for working families?
Answer: No we gave it our all but it wasn’t enough”
“Question: Will Labor abandon the fight for working families ?
Answer: Not while I am leader of this great party”
- Kevin Rudd 24 November 2007
Just a note on my last comment, N.S.W has a swing of 7.3%, the seats polled were Eden Monaro, Robbo, Wenty and Page.
Sleep easy…….30 seats goooone!
ALJ – where did you get that info?
I expected to hear that Galaxy was a marginal’s only poll,
why else would News Ltd ask for a poll for tomorrow when they are publishing a Newspoll on Sturday morning?
“I respect the judgement of the Australian people and tonight after a good old fashioned Labor wake we recommit ourselves to keeping the Government accountable and fighting the good fight for working families”
- Kevin Rudd November 24th 2007
” Where the f&ck is Gartrell I want his ar*e he promised me I would be Prime Minister”
- Kevin Rudd (off camera) 24th November 2007
For the benefit of the mathematically challenged & (those that are NOT smarter than a 5th grader).
A 51.4% vote is likely to provide Labor with 75 Seats. So 52% would be likely to be a close win. The Govt’s advantages are already built in to the margins by now.
Only a fool would take the one poll they like the most, ignore the other 3, and assume all is going well.
Sure it is possible the coalition could still come back, or that all the other polls are wrong, but its damn unlikely. <5% chance.
As for Galaxy being closest in 2004 – more chance than anything with the approx 3% margin of error that most polls have. Nielsen is credited with being the one poll that seems to overestimate the Libs vote (and has at recent elections). However that 57% seems out of step too.
All that said, if the usual deluded suspects (you know who you are!) want to place money on the coalition to win, please do and do it soon and put a lot of money on. It will bring the odds for Labor higher and thus the rest of us will get a bigger profit!
Adelaide tiser.
Does anyone know if the acn poll was by phone or was it an online poll?
ALJ,
good work!! have you got a link?
alj, that would make sense
Tabitha, I hope you really have your hopes up. I would feel much better if I didn’t think you were just putting on a brave face. The crushing of genuine hope would be far better.
Although Galaxy was very accurate last election, I think the result might be a bit closer to about 53/47.
My revised prediction is about 81 seats to Labor.
(sorry Cameron, I know I said 87 earlier today)
Tabitha appears to have found more keys on her keyboard.
Good for her.
Tabitha, you blog wh*re, you have been double posting.
ALI #121
WHERE DID YOU GET THE GALAXY POLL INFO FROM PLEASE ???
A week??? As one of the part owners I want the old bugger gone by lunchtime Sunday. If their old property isn’t ready yet then I’m sure the nearest Sally Army hostel will put him and the misses up for a few nights, after all he’s sent them lots of business over the years!
Sorry Alj, that’s the Galaxy marginal poll from last week…
Both results should surely still indicate a Labor win.
The current debate regarding the actions of the Liberal Party in Lindsay will only consolidate the poles to Labor.
How could anyone vote for a party that allows this type of campaigning to occur?
The differential between poles will disappear, Labour will win 86 seats.
How saw Ruddick and Albanese on LL?
The liberals are so corrupt
Actually meant who saw Ruddick etal
Ruddock’s performance on Lateline tonight took lies and denial to the level of hilarity for the viewer. He says he was advised the Party expelled three members but doesn’t know there names because he didn’t ask. Three rednecks pull an attrotious stunt in a key marginal seat and show the true ugly face of the Liberal party two days before an election they are already certain to lose (hopefully in a big way) and he doesn’t ask. Everytime another one of them lies like this it reminds everyone of AWB, weapons of mass destruction, children overboar, non core promises etc etc. What a way to go out on what was no doubt his last appearence on a serious televised interview.
All the action is at the ACN thread -understandable. On there I noticed that someone said Galaxy was claiming the ALP primary was 42.5.
It is conceivable it could slip below the 47-48 it has scored throughout the year, but 42.5? If it got below 45 I’d be surprised. If it gets anywhere near 42.5 I’ll eat a bucketful.
Don, you better start eating
Tabitha’s going to looooooose
Tabitha’s going to looooooose
(repeat ad nauseum or until she cracks)
Colin at 140
How could anyone vote for a party that allows this type of campaigning to occur?
Colin, there are heaps of people who will vote for this party exactly because of this type of campaining. They don’t care if it was illegal or racists or immoral. They will vote for them as long as they kick the moslems. It is no accident that this incident occured in Penrith. This is fertile ground for racism and islamophobia. The poor, the uneducated, those who have been left behind in Howard’s Australia will always look for a scape goat and the tories are providing one for them.
By the way did the cadaever (ruddock) on LL mention use of his new anti-terror laws to prosecute this type of slander?
i wrote to him after the cronulla riots asking if he’d prosecute alan jones. No reply.
Labor by 24 seats.