More than one commenter reports that Paul Bongiorno has indicated on the Channel Ten News has reported tomorrow’s Galaxy poll at “52-46”, a most unfortunately timed slip of the tongue. We will presumably know soon enough whether he meant 54-46 or 52-48.
UPDATE: Thanks to Adelaide readers for confirming it as 52-48.
| TWO-PARTY | PRIMARY | ||||
| ALP | LNP | ALP | LNP | ||
|
Nov 23
|
52 | 48 | ? | ? | |
|
Nov 4
|
54 | 46 | 45 | 42 | |
|
Oct 19
|
53 | 47 | 45 | 43 | |
|
Sept 24
|
56 | 44 | 46 | 40 | |
|
Aug 27
|
57 | 43 | 47 | 39 | |
|
July 30
|
54 | 46 | 44 | 41 | |
|
July 2
|
55 | 45 | 46 | 41 | |
|
June 4
|
53 | 47 | 44 | 42 | |
|
May 14
|
57 | 43 | 49 | 39 | |
|
April 23
|
58 | 42 | 49 | 37 | |
NOTE: Please exercise some common sense when speculating on poll results in comments. For the love of God, do not leave comments like “ACN 50-50″ and then, 10 minutes and 115 comments later, say “oh sorry, that was only a prediction”.
147 Comments
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Come on what is it?
me?
Adelaide Channel 10?
Bongiourno is on 10 talking to Howard 1 on 1 about today’s events right now.
Probably a deliberate slip up to keep us watching through the hour!
God I can’t wait till this is over
Seems like what you can expect from a network who can’t even bother to show election returns on Saturday night
Surely it will be 52-48. That makes sense with what Grooski was saying and its hard to imagine ACN being better then 54/46.
I heard it was 68-32 to the Greens over Family First after all Liberal candidates were expelled and all ALP candidates were ruled ineligible and the Nationals fell down a bottomless pit and Pauline Hanson got gigantism.
Wonder when we’ll hear the ACN result…
52/48 after preferences. Ten.
52 to 48 Galaxy I hear
Going to see what ACN is before I panic….
Gulp!
Galaxy are truly shameless.
Come Sunday they’ll be seen as the Morgan poll, never to be reported again in the press.
Bugger
i dont like it. too close. damn.
This is the best result for the Coalition in ANY poll all year… and from the most accurate pollster last time.
Coalition to win it in a thriller.
Oh well don’t the Kelly gang look like geniuses now?
Today would have been a big one for the Govt, but …
52-48 I guess.
Possum has ACN at 55/45
God this is so nerve racking
Yippeeeee
If Galaxy is 52-48 that is the minimum the ALP will get. Galaxy the new Morgan.
Bongiorno said that the ACN poll was “a LOT further ahead for Labor”
ACN has leaked to ABC 7pm news in the past. Perhaps tonight as well.
BTW I heard Paul B on Ch.10 say 52-48, not 46. Perhaps they re-recorded that voice-over for central and western states after they realised the slip. And he said ACN has Labor “much further ahead”.
Too bad that Galaxy have an outlier on the eve of the election…their reputation is on the line… LOL
The headline the meeja wants…
It’s too close to call!
Paul Bongiorno can’t add up.
Still galaxy were the closest to the 2004 result. I told ya’ll it will be a squeaker
General Wenck may arrive in time.
What are the primaries?
Will all you nervous Nellies please chill out. JWH is dead no matter what Galaxy says.
My prediction is 57-43 - galaxy isn’t worth the paper it’s barely printed on
Didn’t you hear me. FIFTY TW0/FORTY EIGHT. TEN NEWS.
Galaxy just doing their bit for their man.
52 - 48 is incredible news for the Coalition. They really could *JUST* sneak in with that kind of result.
However, if the other polls buck the trend, will it simply just be an outlier?
Nielson apparently has the ALP “far further ahead”.
Also, although Galaxy did predict the last election result, there are a few reasons not to worry for the ALP, I believe
1 - Even though Galaxy predicted the last election, this could have just been luck.
2 - 52 - 48 is still very much in favour of a Labor win, just with only a smallish majority of like 10.
Well, unless ACN or Newspoll also comes in at 52-48 this poll won’t mean much. I reckon we’ll get ACN 54-46 (prediction) and Newspoll 53-47 (prediction). Final election result around 53%.
I think there are a couple of myths emerging about this poll:
Myth No 1. It’s good for Labor, avoids complacency … - disagree, it’s what the Liberals needed to keep breathing at this stage of their campaign. How that makes it good news for Labor is anyone’s guess.
Myth No 2. Galaxy have cooked the figures… - Don’t they make their money because people hire them for market research? Why would they cook the figures?
It is a Geelong grand final all over again!
hmmm, how I tentatively look forward to the new nickname for Galaxy’s chairman:
David ‘egg on face’ Briggs.
I think that ACN will be something like 55-45
If ACN is *a lot* further ahead that means either 54-46 or 55-45 I would say.
New thread up. Perhaps we can have one thread for Coalition optimists/Labor “concern trolls” and another for everybody else.
“ACN was given as higher for the ALP but no details apparently at 55/45 - the business as usual we’ve all come yawn about.”
From our very own Possum…
maybe not the ‘narrowing’ but cause for hope.
note also that Morgan and newspoll have substantially underestimated the LNP TPP in several of the last elections.
anyone who says this is ‘over’ is wrong
Was the interview with Howard with Paul B on Ten on the Sydney Melb editions. surely if not that is bad timing by Libs
We’re on the march!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQ4ldl12W0I&feature=related
Id be worried if i were you, Howie can scrape in with these numbers.
ACN might have 57 for Labor, this seems a likely prediction
Well it’s debatable I guess. I can imagine that people who worry about “wall to wall labor governments” might also be concerned about a landslide to labor. There’s a reason that Rudd is always playing down his chances of winning by a large margin.
PLEASE REMEMBER
It is historically the case that the election eve polls are far LESS acurate than the poll trend with progressions.
They are also the most volatile. 52/48 is not impossible. Niether is 56/44
Possum has 55-45 for ACN….nothing has changed, just like it hasn’t all year. Like Possum says, Galaxy have been the “stand-up comedian of polling all year”.
As Possum has shown and others have pointed out time and again, it is the AVERAGE across the different polls that reliably comes closest to the final result.
Just because one poll got it closest last time does not mean it will this time. There will always be random fluctuations within the margin of error. In other words, it comes down to luck.
I suggest everybody hold their nerves until we get the average from all four polls, presumably later tonight.
For Sale.
just read a post by the poss regarding galaxy’s method and its problems. ACN is the real deal apparently, as well as Newspoll (but it can show more volatility).
ACN apparently 55/45 according to the Poss.
ok. i’m comfortable and relaxed again. Thanks Honest John.
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